Until recently, political conversations between voters have been neglected by electoral analysts. But a growing body of work has shown the importance of conversation as an influence on voting decisions. The current paper takes that work a stage further by investigating a range of factors that might modify the impact of political conversations upon voting. Against expectations, most factors fail to alter significantly the operation of the conversation effect. But the content of the conversation is revealed as an important influence. The more individuals found themselves in agreement with their discussant's views, the more likely they were to change their vote to the party favoured by their discussant.
References
1.
BartleJ, 1997, “Political awareness and heterogeneity in models of voting: some evidence from the recent British Election Studies” in British Elections and Parties Review 7 Eds PattieCDenverDFisherJLudlamS (Frank Cass, London) pp 1–22
2.
BartleJ, 1998, “Left – right position matters, but does social class? Causal models of the 1992 British General Election”British Journal of Political Science28501–529
3.
BartleJ, 2000, “Political awareness, opinion constraint and the stability of ideological positions”Political Studies48467–484
4.
BennettE EFlickingerR SRhineS L, 2000, “Political talk over here, over there, over time”British Journal of Political Science3099–119
5.
BerelsonB RLazarsfeldP FMcPheeW N, 1954Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Election (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL)
6.
ButlerDStokesD, 1969Political Change in Britain (Macmillan, London)
7.
CalvertR L, 1985, “The value of biased information: a rational choice model of political advice”The Journal of Politics47530–555
8.
CampbellAConversePMillerW EStokesD, 1960, The American Voter (John Wiley, New York)
9.
ConverseP E, 1962, “Information flow and the stability of partisan attitudes”Public Opinion Quarterly26578–599
10.
ConverseP E, 1964, “The nature of belief systems in mass publics”, in Ideology and Discontent Ed. ApterD EFree Press, New York) pp 206–261
11.
CoxK R, 1969a, “The voting decision in a spatial context”Progress in Human Geography181–117
12.
CoxK R, 1969b, “The spatial structuring of information flow and partisan attitudes”, in Quantitative Ecological Analysis in the Social Sciences Eds DoganMRokkanSMIT Press, Cambridge, MA) pp 157–185
13.
CreweISärlvikB, 1983Decade of Dealignment (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
14.
CreweIThomsonK, 1999, “Party loyalties: dealignment or realignment?”, in Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-term Perspective Eds EvansGNorrisPSage, London) pp 64–86
15.
CurticeJ, 1995, “Is talking across the garden fence of political import?”, in Spatial and Contextual Models in Political Research Ed. EaglesMTaylor and Francis, London) pp 195–209
16.
DoganMRokkanS (Eds), 1969Quantitative Ecological Analysis in the Social Sciences (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA)
17.
DunleavyP, 1979, “The urban basis of political alignment: social class, domestic property ownership and state intervention in consumption processes”British Journal of Political Science9409–443
18.
EvansG, 1999, “Class voting: from premature obituary to reasoned appraisal”, in The End of Class Politics? Class Voting in Comparative Context Ed. EvansGOxford University Press, Oxford) pp 1–20
19.
FiorinaM, 1981Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (Yale University Press, New Haven, CT)
20.
FittonM, 1973, “Neighbourhood and voting: a sociometric explanation”British Journal of Political Science3445–472
21.
GranovetterM S, 1973“The strength of weak ties”American Journal of Sociology781360–1380
22.
GujaratiD N, 1995Basic Econometrics3rd edition (McGraw-Hill, New York)
23.
HardyM A, 1993, “Regression with dummy variables”, in Regression Analysis Ed. Lewis-BeckM SSage, London) pp 69–158
24.
HimmelweitH TJaegerMStockdaleJ, 1978, “Memory for past vote: implications of a study of bias in recall”British Journal of Political Science8365–376
25.
HuckfeldtR, 1979, “Political participation and the neighbourhood social context”American Journal of Political Science23579–592
26.
HuckfeldtR, 1983, “The social context of political change: durability, volatility, and social influence”American Political Science Review77929–944
27.
HuckfeldtR, 1984, “Political loyalties and social class ties: the mechanisms of contextual influence”American Journal of Political Science28399–417
28.
HuckfeldtR, 2001, “The social communication of political expertise”American Journal of Political Science45425–438
29.
HuckfeldtRSpragueJ, 1987, “Networks in context: the social flow of political information”American Political Science Review811197–1216
30.
HuckfeldtRSpragueJ, 1988, “Choice, social structure and political information: the information coercion of minorities”American Journal of Political Science32467–482
31.
HuckfeldtRSpragueJ, 1991, “Discussant effects on vote choice: intimacy, structure and interdependence”Journal of Politics53122–158
32.
HuckfeldtRSpragueJ, 1995Citizens, Politics and Social Communication: Information and Influence in an Election Campaign (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
33.
HuckfeldtRPlutzerESpragueJ, 1993, “Alternative contexts of political behaviour: churches, neighbourhoods, and individuals”The Journal of Politics55365–381
34.
HuckfeldtRBeckP ADaltonR JLevineJ, 1995, “Political environments, cohesive social groups, and the communication of public opinion”American Journal of Political Science391025–1054
35.
HuckfeldtRSpragueJLevineJ, 2000a, “The dynamics of collective deliberation in the 1996 election: campaign effects on accessibility, certainty and accuracy”American Political Science Review94641–651
36.
HuckfeldtRIkedaKPappiI, 2000b, “Political expertise, interdependent citizens, and the value added problem in democratic politics”Japanese Journal of Political Science1171–195
37.
JohnstonR JPattieC JAllsoppJ G, 1988A Nation Dividing? The Electoral Map of Great Britain 1979 – 1987 (Longman, Harlow, Essex)
38.
JohnstonR JPattieC JDorlingDMacAllisterITunstallHRossiterD J, 2000, “The neighbourhood effect and voting in England and Wales: real or imagined?” in British Elections and Parties Review 10 Eds CowleyPDenverDRussellAHarrisonLFrank Cass, London) pp 32–46
39.
KeyV O, 1949Southern Politics in State and Nation (Alfred A Knopf, New York)
40.
KnokeD, 1990, “Networks of political action: towards theory construction”Social Forces681041–1063
41.
LazarsfeldPBerelsonBGaudetH, 1948The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign (Columbia University Press, New York)
42.
LupiaAMcCubbinsM D, 1998The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
43.
MacAllisterIJohnstonR JPattieC JTunstallHDorlingD F LRossiterD J, 2001, “Class dealignment and the neighbourhood effect: Miller revisited”British Journal of Political Science3141–59
44.
MillerW EShanksJ M, 1996The New American Voter (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA)
45.
MillerW L, 1977Electoral Dynamics in Britain Since 1918 (Macmillan, London)
46.
MillerW L, 1978, “Social class and party choice in England: a new analysis”British Journal of Political Science8257–184
47.
NieuwbeertaPFlapH, 2000, “Crosscutting social circles and political choice: effects of personal network composition on voting behaviour in the Netherlands”Social Networks22313–335
48.
PappiF U, 1996, “Personal environments in the process of political intermediation as a topic of the Comparative National Election Study”, in Quantitative Social Research in Germany and Japan Eds HayashiCScheuchELeske and Budrich, Opladen) pp 122–139
49.
PattieC JJohnstonR J, 1995, “It's not like that round here: region, economic evaluations and voting at the 1992 British General Election”European Journal of Political Research281–32
50.
PattieC JJohnstonR J, 1999, “Context, conversation and conviction: social networks and voting at the 1992 British General Election”Political Studies47877–889
51.
PattieC JJohnstonR J, 2000, “‘People who talk together vote together’: an exploration of contextual effects in Great Britain”Annals of the Association of American Geographers9041–66
52.
PattieC JJohnstonR J, 2001“Talk as a political context: conversation and electoral change in British elections, 1992 – 1997”Electoral Studies2017–40
53.
PrzeworskiASoaresG A D, 1971, “Theories in search of a curve: a contextual interpretation of the left vote”American Political Science Review6551–68
54.
RussellA, 1997, “A question of interaction: using logistic regression to examine geographic effects on British voting behaviour”, in British Elections and Parties Review 7 Eds PattieCDenverDFisherJLudlamSFrank Cass, London) pp 91–109
55.
SandersD, 1999, “Conservative incompetence, Labour responsibility and the feel good factor: why the economy failed to save the Conservatives in 1997”Electoral Studies18251–270
56.
SandersD, 2000, “The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions: how much do voters need to know? A study of British data 1974 – 1979”Electoral Studies19275–294
57.
SandersDWardHMarshD, 1987, “Government popularity and the Falklands War: a reassessment”British Journal of Political Science17281–313
58.
SnidermanP MBrodyR ATetlockP E, 1991Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
59.
ZallerJ R, 1992The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge)
