Abstract
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Tetlock and Gardner, the authors of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, believe that most forecasters – those who make their living predicting the future – yield results similar to those dart-wielding chimps.
However, the authors found that a select cadre of forecasters can reliably predict the future better than everyone else. Based on his 20-plus years of research, Superforecasting is the culmination of Tetlock's work and endeavors to explain the essential skills for superior forecasting and why it matters. Health care leaders searching for answers on predicting health outcomes and optimizing team performance will find a road map for superior performance in Superforecasting.
Tetlock started the Good Judgment Project in 2011, which was funded to improve intelligence prediction capabilities. A vast forecasting tournament, the Good Judgment Project invited volunteers to make predictions on more than 500 geopolitical questions, ranging from the performance of the stock market to whether war would emerge on the Korean peninsula. Forecasters could alter their forecasts over a 6-month window and predicted on a 100% scale of likeliness to occur.
The top forecasters – superforecasters – were identified and collectively outperformed the average by 60%. These superforecasters performed 30% better than the average intelligence community analyst who was privy to classified data.
The project also demonstrated the power of teamwork. Teams were 23% more accurate than individuals. When superforecasters were put together on a team, their accuracy improved by an incredible 50%. At times, teamwork also led to awful mistakes as groupthink emerged. Groups of forecasters had to take a thoughtful approach and remain dedicated to vigilant thinking.
Tetlock studied the habits and techniques of the winners and spends the better part of the book describing their approach. Overall, superforecasters approach questions in a similar way: they break down the question into knowable components; they determine the knowable and the unknowable and scrutinize all assumptions; they take the outside view, downplaying the uniqueness and treating it as one case in a wider phenomena; then they take the inside view, focusing on the uniqueness of the question. They explore the differences between their opinion and others'; finally, they synthesize these components and express their judgment in a specific scale of probability. Superforecasters make many small updates to their predictions with each new, small piece of information they obtain.
The best forecasters have a growth mind-set. They also are committed to examining their forecasts with brutal honesty. They care more about understanding and learning than being right. The authors postulate that this may be the most important characteristic of a superforecaster.
In the latter chapters, Superforecasting addresses several outside critiques. One critique is whether forecasting can meaningfully influence the course of events. Tetlock notes the limitations of human prediction. Despite this, Tetlock argues that there is still value in slow incremental change through superior forecasting, positively affecting important gains such as life expectancy and advances in medicine.
The authors briefly describe how leaders can apply the principles of superforecasting. Leaders and organizations must ruthlessly plan while maintaining situational responsiveness and flexibility. Tetlock employs a military concept to make his point. Aufragstaktik, a 19th-century German idea, promotes clear command from headquarters, and gives those on the front line autonomy to accomplish the task according to local circumstances.
In summary, what matters most is how forecasters think. They must be open-minded, careful, curious, and – above all – self-critical. This is not a fail-proof algorithm for success; yet, what is offered is an enhanced approach to thinking about questions that is greatly needed in health care.