The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries,1990

Abstract

Spanish

French

Social scientists have long queried the socio-structural determinants of fertility rates. Drawing on the insights of dependency theory, this research investigates the impact of trade openness, exports to high-income countries, foreign direct investment, and debt dependence on fertility rates in developing countries. Results from generalized least squares (GLS) random effects (RE) panel regression models suggest that trade openness has a null effect, while exports to high-income countries is positively associated with fertility. Foreign direct investment is inversely associated with fertility, while debt dependence is positively associated with fertility. This study calls attention to the global–economic processes shaping national-level demographic outcomes.

Keywords

Debt economic globalization fertility foreign direct investment trade

Social scientists have long sought to explain cross-national and longitudinal variations in demographic outcomes. This research joins these conversations by answering a long-standing question in the comparative international social sciences: how does economic globalization affect fertility rates in developing countries? Drawing on dependency theory (Bornschier and Chase-Dunn, 1985; Cardoso and Faletto, 1979; Dos Santos, 1970), I estimate the effect of trade openness, the vertical flow of exports from less-developed countries (LDCs) to high-income countries (HICs), foreign direct investment (FDI), and debt dependence on fertility in 98 developing countries from 1990 to 2018 using generalized least squares (GLS) random effects (RE) panel regression models. Analysis results provide mixed support for dependency theory predictions. I find that trade openness does not exert a statistically significant effect on fertility, while the exports from LDCs to HICs measure is positively associated with fertility. Furthermore, foreign capital penetration is found to be inversely associated with fertility, while debt dependence is positively associated with fertility.

Following a description of cross-national trends in fertility rates, I delve into dependency theory arguments regarding the impacts of world economic integration, where I then derive relevant propositions. I then describe the data and methods used to estimate the effect of these key variables. Followed by a summary of the results, I elaborate on the significance of the analysis findings in the discussion and conclusion.

Cross-national trends in fertility rates

Social scientific understanding of the determinants of national-level fertility rates is important for a variety of reasons. One is that fertility is associated with decreased educational attainment. Second is that increases in fertility are associated with increased child deaths (Jorgenson, 2009; Mejia, 2022a) and malaria prevalence (Austin and Hof, 2023). Third is that, while there are declines across the board, fertility rates are higher in developing countries relative to developed countries. Figure 1 illustrates this point by plotting aggregate-level trends in fertility rates by LDCs and developed countries. In 1990, the fertility rate in developed countries fell from just above 2 to about 1.75 in 2018. For LDCs, the fertility rate dropped from about 4.5 in 1990 to just above 3 in 2018. With these differences in fertility rates by country development level, we need an understanding of why fertility rates, albeit declining in recent years throughout the world and regardless of country development level, are higher in developing countries. Dependency theory provides an explanation.

Figure 1.

Aggregate-level trends in fertility rates by less-developed countries and developed countries, 1990–2018.

Dependency theory

Trade, FDI, and debt

Dependency theory is a prominent theoretical orientation in the comparative international social sciences that was generally developed during the national development debates of the mid-20th century. Modernization theory (e.g. Rostow, 1960) originally proposed a ‘stages of development’ growth model, where, with foreign investment and credit, LDCs may be able to eventually accumulate the domestic savings necessary to finance development projects, “take-off” into self-sustaining growth, and attain standards of living like HICs (Rostow, 1960). Neoclassical economic theory generally extends the logic of modernization theory, where it was argued that trade will contribute to economic growth as LDCs pursue their ‘comparative advantage’ in the global economy (e.g. Ricardo, 1817; Smith, 1776 [1977]) Also, the Harrod–Domar model of economic growth posits that economic growth is a linear function of investment, regardless of whether this investment is from domestic or foreign sources (e.g. Firebaugh, 1992; Solow, 1956; Todaro and Smith, 2020; c.f. Dixon and Boswell, 1996a). Overall, modernization and neoclassical economic theory suggest that these various forms of global economic integration might benefit LDCs.

Dependency theory counters the arguments of modernization theory and neoclassical economic theory. Dependency theory posits that trade, FDI, and debt may generate harmful effects in LDCs more broadly and on outcomes such as fertility. At the heart of dependency theory arguments is that LDCs are economically dependent on external sources to generate their own economic growth (i.e. HICs, foreign investors, global financial institutions) (e.g. Chase-Dunn, 1975; Frank, 1967, 1979). In the context of trade, Wallerstein (1974) suggested that, as part of a globally stratified three-tier world economy, LDCs trade the least profitable products and are ‘forced to accept the lot that has been given them’ (Wallerstein, 2004: 29). Thus, increasing integration into the world economy through trade more generally is argued to detrimentally affect fertility because LDCs receive a smaller share of global gross domestic product (GDP) relative to HICs and the incomes of domestic populations are intrinsically lower in said countries. Considering these lower incomes relative to other countries in the world system, domestic populations of LDCs may have to rely more on children as ‘economic necessities’ (Kentor, 2001: 439). Another commonly made argument is that there is an unequal exchange occurring in international trade, where surplus value gets extracted from LDCs (Emmanuel, 1972). However, some classic world-systems analysis/dependency theory scholarship suggested that the vertical flow of exports from LDCs to HICs better captures these arguments regarding global economic integration in the context of trade. For example, Bunker (1984: 1018) writes, ‘I believe the unbalanced flows of energy and matter from extractive peripheries to the productive core provide better measures of unequal exchange in the world-system’. Many social scientists draw on Bunker (1984) in analyses of ecological unequal exchange (e.g. Jorgenson et al., 2009; Shandra et al., 2009a, 2009b). In addition to the ecological implications of this measure of trade, Bunker (1984) also suggested that the vertical flow of exports from LDCs to HICs may have social and economic implications as well. For example, the governments of LDCs may allocate valuable resources to developing export platforms rather than investing in education, social services, and development projects more broadly that may serve to lower fertility rates (Bornschier and Chase-Dunn, 1985; Bunker, 1985). In addition, it is argued that the consumption patterns of HICs place strain on the finite resources in LDCs and thus contribute to the ‘development of underdevelopment’ in the long run (Bunker, 1985; Frank, 1967, 1979). This depletion of natural resources argued to occur, of course, may have implications for the natural environment, but it can have implications for fertility as families may have more children to earn additional incomes. Furthermore, some scholarship finds that the vertical flow of exports from LDCs to HICs exerts harmful effects on hunger, child mortality, and undernourishment in LDCs (Austin et al., 2012; Mejia, 2022a, 2023a). The findings of these studies are also relevant here as fertility is related to these outcomes.

Global economic integration in the context of FDI has also received considerable attention in the macro-sociological literature. Much theoretical debate and empirical inquiry focuses on foreign capital penetration, which is commonly measured as inward FDI stock as a percentage of GDP (e.g. Cole, 2015; Harper, Sommer, and Shandra 2023). There are numerous arguments made surrounding how FDI affects fertility in LDCs, where there is a theoretical tension between neoclassical economic theory and foreign investment dependency theory. One common argument is that FDI transfers technologically advanced production equipment to a host country. From a neoclassical economic perspective, the transfer of this technologically advanced production equipment may dramatically increase the production of goods/services in a host country. This increase would then lower fertility by reducing the need for families to bear children to meet production goals. For example, if there is an influx of foreign firms in a developing country, then there may be shifts in the overall economy where children are not as needed for labor as, say, in a more agrarian-based economy. Foreign investment dependency theory, however, might counter by arguing that LDCs, with the inflow of FDI, may suffer from disarticulation. Disarticulation generally is the ‘juxtaposition of economic sectors with different levels of development and productivity’ (Stokes and Anderson, 1990: 63). Thus, while foreign firms are indeed more productive than their domestic counterparts, this increased productivity may be concentrated in said firms and domestic populations generally must continue bearing more children for labor needs. Many classic foreign investment dependency studies indeed find that FDI is associated with decreased economic growth in LDCs (e.g. Bornschier and Chase-Dunn, 1985; Chase-Dunn, 1975; Curwin and Mahutga, 2014; Dixon and Boswell, 1996a, 1996b; Kentor, 1998, 2001). Decreased economic growth would intrinsically be related to increases in fertility considering that it is well recognized that rising income levels are a consistent predictor of fertility declines.

The dependency theory literature argues that debt dependence is also relevant. One of the most common ways of measuring debt dependence in the cross-national dependency literature is total debt service as a percentage of a country’s export of goods, services, and primary income (e.g. Bradshaw and Schafer, 2000; Buchman, 1996; Mejia, 2023b, 2024; Shen and Williamson, 1997; Walton and Ragin, 1990). This measure of debt dependence is argued to detrimentally impact fertility in a variety of ways. First, it is argued that, considering the governments of LDCs must continually service their foreign debts or face severe constraints on their domestic economy, scarce resources that could be used to finance education, social services, and development projects more broadly are channeled toward foreign creditors (Shen and Williamson, 1997; Walton and Ragin, 1990). This continual debt service of a country’s principal debt and interest then further deplete a country of financial resources that could contribute to lowering fertility rates. A country’s ability to build their foreign currency reserves is also hindered, thereby further affecting a country’s funding of social services and education systems in the long-term. Like FDI, debt service may detrimentally impact economic growth in LDCs (Bradshaw and Huang, 1991; Bradshaw and Schafer, 2000; Chase-Dunn, 1975), which would then, as a logical extension, impact fertility rates.

In summary, dependency theory posits that multiple forms of global economic integration might exert detrimental effects on fertility in LDCs. To explore these arguments, I gather country-level cross-sectional and longitudinal data from commonly used sources and apply appropriate econometric methods to analyze such data. I evaluate the dependency theory expectation that trade openness, exports from LDCs to HICs, foreign capital penetration, and debt dependence exert harmful effects on fertility in LDCs. I now turn to a description of the data and methods used in the analysis.

Summary of propositions

H1: Trade openness is positively associated with fertility rates.

H2: Exports to HICs is positively associated with fertility rates.

H3: FDI stock is positively associated with fertility rates.

H4: Total debt service is positively associated with fertility rates.

Data

I use the following data sources in the analyses: the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators, the Polity Project (Marshall and Gurr, 2020), and the United Nations Conference on Trade Development-Stat (UNCTAD) Database (UNCTAD, 2021). I classify countries as ‘developing countries’ if they are not classified as HICs in the World Bank’s Income Classification of Countries. I handled missing data by listwise deletion. I provide descriptive statistics and correlation matrix in Table 1. Supplemental Appendix A provides a list of countries included in the analysis (available online).

Table 1.

Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix.

					SD	Mean	Min	Max
Total fertility rate					1.64	3.711	1.07	7.77
Real GDP per capita (PPP), ln					0.860	8.47	6.07	10.25
Democracy					5.64	2.901	–9	10
Female labor force participation rate					9.29	41.16	10.4	56
Trade (exports + imports) as a % of GDP, ln					0.543	4.144	0.1547	5.855
Exports to high-income countries (% of total merchandise exports), ln					0.558	3.996	0.7043	4.613
Inward FDI stock (% of GDP), ln					1.019	2.944	0.1295	6.673
Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income					14.1	15.71	0.0032	156.8
Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
(1) Total fertility rate	1.000
(2) Real GDP per capita (PPP), ln	–0.753	1.000
(3) Democracy	–0.230	0.228	1.000
(4) Female labor force participation rate	0.189	–0.325	–0.016	1.000
(5) Trade (exports + imports) as a % of GDP, ln	–0.237	0.239	0.081	0.063	1.000
(6) Exports to high-income countries (% of total merchandise exports), ln	–0.060	0.121	0.059	–0.194	–0.039	1.000
(7) Inward FDI stock (% of GDP), ln	–0.297	0.315	0.102	0.024	0.427	0.051	1.000
(8) Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income	–0.033	0.155	0.086	–0.107	–0.162	0.104	0.002	1.000

SD: standard deviation; GDP: gross domestic product; PPP: purchasing power parity; FDI: foreign direct investment.

Dependent variable

Fertility

The response variable of interest in this analysis is a country’s total fertility rate. A country’s total fertility rate (births per woman) represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the given year. These data are from the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators.

Explanatory variables of interest

Trade openness

I measure trade openness as trade (exports + imports) as a percentage of GDP, following previous literature (e.g. Clark, 2008; Shorette and Burroway, 2022; Mejia 2021). I take the natural logarithm of this variable to address excessive skew. These data are from the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators.

Exports to HICs from LDCs

I also include a measure of the vertical flow of merchandise exports from LDCs to HICs as a percentage of the total merchandise exports. These data are from the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators and the estimates are based on data from the International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Database (World Bank, 2021). This measure uses the World Bank’s Income Classification of Countries to designate countries as high-income (World Bank, 2021). I take the natural logarithm of this covariate to address skew. Social scientists measure the vertical flow of exports from LDCs to HICs in numerous ways. Early scholarship used the weighted index of vertical trade initially proposed by Jorgenson (2006). However, I use this export measure for numerous reasons. First, using this export measure allows for the analysis of much more expansive cross-sectional longitudinal data relative to using the weighted export flow measure developed by Jorgenson (2006). Second, echoing the sentiments expressed by Jorgenson (2012), this export measure is much more straightforward and intuitive in its interpretation relative to the export flow measured proposed by Jorgenson (2006). Third, Jorgenson (2012: 246) states that, in addition to using this variable in their cross-national analysis of carbon dioxide emissions, the exports from LDCs to HICs measure from the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators is also suitable for studies of unequal exchange. Fourth, the measure employed here is also used in more contemporary cross-national studies (Mejia, 2022a, 2023a; Tester, 2020).

FDI penetration

I include inward FDI stock as a percentage of GDP in the analysis, which is a common way of operationalizing foreign capital penetration in the comparative international social sciences (Mejia, 2022b, 2022c, 2023c). This variable measures the extent foreign investors dominate the economy of a host country (Kentor and Boswell, 2003). I take the natural logarithm of this variable to account for skew. These data are from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development-Stat database (UNCTAD, 2021).

Total debt service ratio

I also include a measure of total debt service as a percentage of exports of goods, services and primary income, which is a common way of measuring debt dependence in the comparative international social sciences (e.g. Bradshaw and Huang, 1991; Bradshaw and Schafer, 2000; Bradshaw and Tshandu, 1990; Bradshaw et al., 1993; Buchman, 1996; Mejia, 2023b, 2024; Shen and Williamson, 1997; Walton and Ragin, 1990). These data are from the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators. Total debt service is the sum of principal repayments and interest paid in currency, goods, or services on long-term debt, interest paid on short-term debt, and repayments (repurchases and changes) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Control variables

Economic development

Economic development is measured as the natural logarithm of real GDP per capita (PPP) in 2011 international dollars. These data are from the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators. In addition to the arguments of classical theoretical paradigms in demography (i.e. the demographic transition), controlling for economic development is quite common in the comparative international social sciences. In addition, the relationship between economic development and social welfare is one of the most established relationships in cross-national research (e.g. c.f. Brady et al., 2007; Clark, 2011; c.f. Cole, 2019; Firebaugh and Beck, 1994; Shandra et al., 2004).

Democracy

I include a measure of democracy, which is measured using the Polity2 variable from the Polity Project database (Marshall and Gurr, 2020). The Polity2 variable from the Polity Project database varies from −10 (strongly autocratic) to 10 (strongly democratic) (Marshall and Gurr, 2020). This variable is computing by subtracting a country’s autocracy score from their democracy score. For example, Albania’s autocracy score in 1992 is 1, while their democracy score in 1992 is 6. Thus, Algeria contains a Polity2 value of 5 for 1992. I also explored using the democracy indices from the Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) dataset (Coppedge et al., 2021). The results were similar to the analyses presented here.

Women labor force participation

I include a measure of a country’s female labor force participation rate. Labor force participation rate is the proportion of a country’s population aged 15 and older that is economically active, where economically active means all people who supply labor to produce goods and services during a given year. These data are from the World Bank’s (2021) World Development Indicators. Classic economic theory (e.g. Becker, 1960) is typically extended to the case of women’s labor force participation: as women become involved in the labor force, the number of children they bear declines as their opportunity costs for having children increases (Goeddel Hackett, 2018).

Method

GLS RE panel regression models

To analyze the cross-sectional and longitudinal country level data, I estimate GLS RE panel regression models. The presence of country heterogeneity can cause bias in pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. Fixed effects (FE) estimation and GLS RE estimation are commonly used econometric methods to address the bias in pooled OLS estimation caused by country heterogeneity (Wooldridge, 2009). I use GLS RE estimation over FE estimation because there is little variation in the dependent variable, but I attach FE panel models in Supplemental Appendix B (available online).

To assess for influential outliers, I created added variable (AV) plots. I did not identify any influential outliers. To account for potential serial correlation, I estimate panel regression models with robust standard errors clustered by country (Hoechle, 2007). The explanatory variables of interest (the measures of world economic integration) are not really correlated with each other (with the exception of trade openness and FDI stock; r = .427), but, as an extra precaution against issues arising from multicollinearity, I only include one measure of world economic integration in the models reported in Table 2.

Table 2.

The effects of world economic integration on fertility in developing countries, 1990–2018: results from generalized least squares random effects panel regression models.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Real GDP per capita (PPP), logged	–0.846***	–0.878***	–0.572***	–0.865***
Real GDP per capita (PPP), logged	(0.153)	(0.152)	(0.135)	(0.146)
Democracy	–0.0347***	–0.0348***	–0.0333***	–0.0309***
Democracy	(0.00894)	(0.00853)	(0.00851)	(0.00800)
Women’s labor force participation rate	–0.0982***	–0.0928***	–0.0818***	–0.0908***
Women’s labor force participation rate	(0.0135)	(0.0131)	(0.0140)	(0.0130)
Trade (exports + imports) as a % of GDP, ln	–0.198
Trade (exports + imports) as a % of GDP, ln	(0.144)
Merchandise exports to high-income countries (% of total), ln		0.217**
		(0.0741)
Inward FDI stock (% of GDP), ln			–0.250***
Inward FDI stock (% of GDP), ln			(0.0450)
Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income)				0.0107***
				(0.00192)
Constant	15.83***	14.20***	12.76***	14.69***
Constant	(1.325)	(1.298)	(1.206)	(1.276)
Observations	2314	2314	2314	2314
Wald chi-squared	170.01***	184.32***	220.39***	236.99***
Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects (p-value)	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Hausman test (p-value)	.0000	.0000	.0000	.0000
R² between	.196	.212	.144	.205

GDP: gross domestic product; PPP: purchasing power parity; FDI: foreign direct investment. Robust standard errors clustered by country in parentheses; two-tailed test; unstandardized coefficients are presented first.

p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

Results

Table 2 reports the central analysis findings. I begin with the results from statistical control variables. As expected, GDP per capita is inversely associated with fertility. The unstandardized coefficients for this covariate are consistently statistically significant and negative in direction across Models 1–4 in Table 2. In Model 4, a 1% increase in GDP per capita is associated with a 0.00865 unit decrease in fertility rates. Democracy also appears to matter for fertility rates. I observe in Models 1–4 of Table 2 that democracy is inversely associated with fertility in developing countries. In Model 4 of Table 2, a one-unit increase in democracy is associated with a 0.0309 unit decrease in fertility rates. I thus find empirical support for the arguments that democracy does matter for health outcomes. As expected, women’s labor force participation rate is inversely associated with fertility. The unstandardized coefficients for this covariate are consistently statistically significant across the models reported in Table 2. In Model 4 of Table 2, a one-unit increase in this explanatory variable is associated with a 0.0908 unit decrease in fertility rates. Turning to the covariates of interest, trade openness does not appear to be associated with fertility rates in developing countries. The merchandise exports to HICs measure, however, is positively associated with fertility and reaches statistical significance. In Model 2, a 1% increase in this measure of global economic integration is associated with a 0.00217 unit increase in fertility rates. Inward FDI stock (% of GDP) is inversely associated with fertility in developing countries, where a 1% increase in this covariate is associated with a 0.00250 unit decrease in fertility rates. Total debt service, however, is positively associated with fertility. In Model 4 of Table 2, a one-unit increase in total debt service is associated with a 0.0107 unit increase in fertility rates. Figures 2 - 4 provide illustrations of the findings from the three statistically significant measures of world economic integration.

Figure 2.

Predicted value of fertility rate (with 95% CIs) given values of the vertical flow of exports to high-income countries (logged).

Figure 3.

Predicted value of fertility rate (with 95% CIs) given values of inward FDI stock (% of GDP), logged.

Figure 4.

Predicted value of fertility rate (with 95% CIs) given values of total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income).

Table 3 reports robustness checks per an anonymous reviewer. Model 2 includes school enrollments (% of gross), while Model 3 incorporates female secondary school enrollments (% of gross). Model 4 incorporates contraceptive prevalence, while Model 5 includes the prevalence of HIV. Model 6 includes a country’s infant mortality rate. With these robustness checks, the results regarding the parameters of interest (the four measures of world economic integration) are similar.

Table 3.

Robustness checks: unstandardized coefficients from GLS RE panel regression models.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
Real GDP per capita (PPP), logged	–0.538***	–0.261	–0.285	–0.378***	–0.639***	0.103
Real GDP per capita (PPP), logged	(0.123)	(0.147)	(0.160)	(0.100)	(0.140)	(0.161)
Democracy	–0.0254***	–0.0181*	–0.0181*	–0.00996	–0.0267**	–0.0207**
Democracy	(0.00756)	(0.00786)	(0.00785)	(0.00693)	(0.00832)	(0.00711)
Women’s labor force participation rate	–0.0722***	–0.0375**	–0.0392**	–0.0346***	–0.0695***	–0.0498***
Women’s labor force participation rate	(0.0129)	(0.0145)	(0.0147)	(0.0100)	(0.0130)	(0.0136)
Trade (exports + imports) as a % of GDP, ln	–0.0500	–0.0130	0.0175	0.0782	–0.134	–0.0522
Trade (exports + imports) as a % of GDP, ln	(0.0701)	(0.0727)	(0.0700)	(0.0632)	(0.108)	(0.0591)
Merchandise exports to high-income countries (% of total), ln	0.176**	0.0825	0.0776	0.0436	0.177**	0.0945
	(0.0622)	(0.0803)	(0.0808)	(0.0643)	(0.0666)	(0.0593)
Inward FDI stock (% of GDP), ln	–0.229***	–0.115***	–0.121***	–0.132***	–0.226***	–0.133**
Inward FDI stock (% of GDP), ln	(0.0414)	(0.0339)	(0.0354)	(0.0393)	(0.0422)	(0.0413)
Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and primary income)	0.00934***	0.00569**	0.00541*	0.00633***	0.00844***	0.00821***
	(0.00186)	(0.00187)	(0.00211)	(0.00192)	(0.00192)	(0.00175)
School enrollment, secondary (% gross)		–0.0178***
School enrollment, secondary (% gross)		(0.00381)
School enrollment, secondary, female (% gross)			–0.0169***
School enrollment, secondary, female (% gross)			(0.00361)
Contraceptive prevalence, any methods (% of women aged 15–49)				–0.0396***
				(0.00332)
Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population aged 15–49)					0.0352
Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population aged 15–49)					(0.0207)
Infant mortality rate, ln						0.815***
Infant mortality rate, ln						(0.163)
Constant	11.37***	8.500***	8.610***	9.872***	12.52***	2.161
Constant	(1.138)	(1.350)	(1.562)	(0.960)	(1.396)	(1.943)
Observations	2314	1522	1419	633	2100	2314
R² between	.13	.59	.59	.71	.31	.28

GLS: generalized least squares; RE: random effects; GDP: gross domestic product; PPP: purchasing power parity; FDI: foreign direct investment.

Robust standard errors clustered by country in parentheses; two-tailed test.

p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

The focus of this analysis is on four commonly investigated measures of world economic integration, but there are, of course, other measures that have attracted considerable attention in the comparative international social sciences. Per an anonymous reviewer’s suggestions, Table 4 reports analyses that focus on export specialization measures and a binary measure whether a country has an IMF program active in a given year (see Forster et al., 2019; Reinsberg et al., 2023). In Model 1, I observe that agricultural raw materials exports is statistically significant and positive in direction, where a one-unit increase in this covariate is associated with a 0.00885 unit increase in fertility. Fuel exports and ore/metals exports, however, do not appear to be statistically associated with fertility. Similarly, having an IMF program in a given year does not appear to be statistically associated with fertility rates in developing countries.

Table 4.

Robustness checks: unstandardized coefficients from GLS RE panel regression models.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Real GDP per capita (PPP), ln	–0.770***	–0.781***	–0.813***	–0.818***
Real GDP per capita (PPP), ln	(0.150)	(0.145)	(0.150)	(0.129)
Democracy	–0.0215**	–0.0204*	–0.0227**	–0.0399***
Democracy	(0.00808)	(0.00822)	(0.00819)	(0.00782)
Women’s labor force participation rate	–0.0739***	–0.0723***	–0.0723***	–0.0955***
Women’s labor force participation rate	(0.0145)	(0.0142)	(0.0145)	(0.0135)
Agricultural raw materials exports (% of merchandise exports)	0.00885*
	(0.00425)
Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports)		–0.00305
Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports)		(0.00296)
Ores and metals exports (% of merchandise exports)			0.00106
Ores and metals exports (% of merchandise exports)			(0.00218)
IMF program active anytime in year (1 = yes; 0 = no)				0.0302
IMF program active anytime in year (1 = yes; 0 = no)				(0.0413)
Constant	13.20***	13.32***	13.54***	14.67***
Constant	(1.277)	(1.254)	(1.294)	(1.145)
Observations	2107	2030	2103	2822
R² between	.26	.24	.24	.27

GLS: generalized least squares; RE: random effects; IMF: International Monetary Fund; GDP: gross domestic product; PPP: purchasing power parity.

Robust standard errors clustered by country in parentheses; two-tailed test.

p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.

Discussion and conclusion

This research seeks to advance our understanding of how the world economy is affecting demographic change in LDCs. Drawing on dependency theory, I investigate the effect of trade openness, the vertical flow of exports from developing countries to HICs, FDI, and debt dependence on fertility in LDCs, 1990–2018. Results from GLS RE panel regression models of 97 developing countries provide mixed support for dependency theory expectations. Trade openness does not appear to be associated with fertility in LDCs. However, I find that it is the unidirectional flow of exports from LDCs to HICs that exerts harmful effects on fertility in developing countries. Results suggest that foreign capital penetration is inversely associated with fertility. Furthermore, I find that debt dependence is positively associated with fertility in LDCs. Echoing the sentiments of Do et al. (2016) and Li et al. (2022), this analysis calls attention to the global economic processes affecting fertility rates in developing countries.

The analysis makes numerous contributions to the comparative international social sciences. First, the analysis more broadly explains cross-national and longitudinal variation in an important demographic outcome: fertility rates. As highlighted earlier, increases in fertility are associated with a host of alarming trends such as increases in child mortality, undernourishment, and malaria prevalence. Also, fertility rates are higher in developing countries relative to developed economies. Explaining cross-national and longitudinal variations in fertility rates helps advance our understanding of demographic change more broadly in LDCs and is a crucial step in generating science-based policy decisions. Second is that the analysis brings the global economic processes shaping domestic fertility rates into fuller relief. Dependency research has somewhat stalled out in recent decades relative to the 1980s and 1990s, but this analysis highlights the enduring significance of dependency theory insights, where particular forms of world economic integration exert harmful effects on fertility rates in developing countries. Insights from this sociological literature clearly help advance our understanding of this pressing social issue.

These findings engage long-standing scholarly discussions among social scientists regarding the impacts of the world economy on domestic demographic change. Of relevance here is investigations regarding international trade. For example, Galor and Mountford (2008) report that trade has a harmful impact on fertility rates in non-OECD countries. In contrast, Do et al. (2016) find inconsistent trade openness effects on fertility. However, Gries and Grundmann (2014) provide more nuance to this debate, where they find that the effect of international trade on fertility differs by economic sector. For example, Gries and Grundmann (2014) suggest that manufacturing exports are associated with declines in fertility, but primary exports are associated with increases in fertility rates. The analysis results directly engage these conversations. It is not general trade openness that affects fertility, but merchandise exports to HICs specifically that affects fertility. Furthermore, this finding contributes to an emerging body of literature documenting the health impacts of exports to HICs and international trade more broadly (Austin, 2012; Austin et al., 2012; Mejia, 2022a, 2023a).

These findings engage long-standing scholarly discussions among political-economic sociologists regarding the implications of world economic processes for LDCs. Numerous forms of global economic integration have received considerable attention in the comparative international social scientific literature. One body of literature focuses on trade openness and/or the vertical flow of exports from LDCs to HICs (Clark, 2008; Jorgenson, 2006, 2012; Rice, 2007; Shen and Williamson, 1997; Tester, 2020; Thombs, 2018). Other bodies of literature theoretically debate and empirically evaluate the impacts of foreign capital penetration (Bornschier and Chase-Dunn, 1985; Dixon and Boswell, 1996a, 1996b; Firebaugh, 1992, 1996; Kentor, 1998, 2001; Kentor and Boswell, 2003) and debt dependence (Bradshaw et al., 1993; Bradshaw and Huang, 1991; Bradshaw and Schafer, 2000; Bradshaw and Tshandu, 1990; Buchman, 1996; Clark and Snawder, 2020; Shen and Williamson, 1997; Sommer et al., 2015; Walton and Ragin, 1990). I elaborate on how I engage these areas of social scientific inquiry below.

Political–economic sociologists have long debated the implications of international trade for LDCs. Indeed, classic cross-national work investigates the impacts of trade on a variety of outcomes such as mortality (Wimberley, 1990), food consumption (Wimberley and Bello, 1992), quality of life (Ragin and Bradshaw, 1992), basic needs (London and Williams, 1990), economic development (Chase-Dunn, 1975; Kentor and Boswell, 2003) and other outcomes (e.g. Kentor, 2001). A growing body of social scientific literature, however, has called attention to more nuanced measures of trade, especially the unidirectional flow of exports from LDCs to HICs (e.g. Jorgenson, 2006, 2012; Rice, 2007). The findings reported here appear to support these notions of incorporating more nuanced measures of trade in analysis of LDCs, where I find that it is the unidirectional flow of exports from LDCs to HICs that is positively associated with fertility in LDCs rather than the trade openness measure. Thus, one insight from this analysis is that it is the vertical flow of exports from LDCs specifically to HICs rather than trade openness more generally that generates harmful effects on fertility in LDCs.

Research concerning the impacts of foreign investment in LDCs has also attracted considerable theoretical and empirical attention in the comparative international social sciences. The foreign capital penetration and fertility relationship in LDCs has also received much scholarly attention (e.g. Kentor, 2001; London, 1988) but this analysis builds on the limitations of these important studies, where I analyze more expansive panel data and incorporate more powerful econometric methods than previous work. With the finding that foreign capital penetration is inversely associated with fertility in LDCs, this analysis contributes to a growing body of social scientific literature finding that FDI may sometimes produce beneficial effects in LDCs. For example, Sommer (2022) finds that inward FDI stock is inversely associated with child mortality in LDCs. Furthermore, Clark and Kentor (2022) find that their FDI centrality measure is associated with increased economic growth. Clark and Kentor (2022) also find mixed evidence for the relationship between inward FDI stock and economic growth in their analysis, which differs from the findings of classic foreign capital penetration studies (e.g. Curwin and Mahutga, 2014; Dixon and Boswell, 1996a; Kentor, 2001).

Social scientists have also long explored the impacts of debt dependence in LDCs (Bradshaw and Schafer, 2000; Buchman, 1996; Chase-Dunn, 1975; Clark and Snawder, 2020; Shen and Williamson, 1997; Sommer et al., 2015; Walton and Ragin, 1990). It is the author’s hope that this analysis serves to help reinvigorate this lively area of social scientific inquiry with the finding that debt dependence is positively associated with fertility in LDCs. Indeed, pioneering work by Bradshaw and Huang (1991) and Bradshaw et al. (1993) initially suggested that political-economic sociologists have neglected this form of international economic dependence. Also, Dixon and Boswell (1996a: 561) advocated for scholars to incorporate measures of debt dependence in cross-national tests of dependency theory. The findings of this analysis serve to somewhat echo these sentiments.

I posit that this analysis provides new directions for comparative international studies of global social change. Social scientists have long debated and investigated the consequences of international economic integration and dependence, especially for LDCs. Social scientists often focus their analyses on global economic integration in the context of trade (e.g. Austin, 2010a, 2010b; Rice, 2007; Sommer et al., 2020, 2021), while others center their investigations on unpacking the consequences of other forms of world economic integration (e.g. Bradshaw and Huang, 1991; Bradshaw and Schafer, 2000; Clark and Kentor, 2022; Clark and Kwon, 2018; Curwin and Mahutga, 2014; Jorgenson et al., 2022; Walton and Ragin, 1990). In synthesizing these various strands of literature in the comparative international social sciences, I find that it is the vertical flow of exports from LDCs to HICs and debt dependence that generate detrimental effects on fertility in LDCs rather than foreign capital penetration and trade openness. Especially with the findings of this study contributing to a growing body of literature finding that the traditional foreign capital penetration measure (inward FDI stock/GDP) can exert beneficial effects or inconsistent effects, this analysis suggests that cross-national tests of dependency theory might benefit from comparing the impacts of global economic integration.

To conclude, this study seeks to empirically investigate the impacts of global economic integration on fertility in LDCs. I find that the vertical flow of exports from LDCs to HICs and debt dependence exert harmful effects on fertility in LDCs, while foreign capital penetration is inversely associated with fertility. With the latter finding, I caution against broader conclusions that foreign investment is beneficial for LDCs. For example, Hall and Bass (2012) find that foreign investment dependence is positively associated with poverty in LDCs, while Curwin and Mahutga (2014) find that foreign capital penetration is inversely associated with economic growth in post-socialist transition countries. Furthermore, Mahutga and Bandelj (2008) find that foreign capital penetration is positively associated with income inequality. Thus, answering the question of whether foreign investment is a boon or bane for LDCs is incredibly complex. Rather, it is the author’s hope that the findings presented here help to further stimulate scholarly discussion of the impacts of global economic integration for LDCs, with a collective goal of advancing our understanding of how the world economy is affecting social change.

Supplemental Material

sj-docx-1-csi-10.1177_00113921231223184 – Supplemental material for The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries, 1990–2018

Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-csi-10.1177_00113921231223184 for The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries, 1990–2018 by Steven A. Mejia in Current Sociology

Supplemental Material

sj-docx-2-csi-10.1177_00113921231223184 – Supplemental material for The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries, 1990–2018

Supplemental material, sj-docx-2-csi-10.1177_00113921231223184 for The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries, 1990–2018 by Steven A. Mejia in Current Sociology

Footnotes

Acknowledgements

The author thanks the anonymous reviewers for helpful comments to improve the manuscript.

Funding

The author received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

ORCID iD

Steven A. Mejia

Supplemental material

Supplemental material for this article is available online.

Author biography

Steven A. Mejia is an Assistant Professor of Sociology at Washington State University. He holds a PhD in Sociology from the University of California, Irvine. His research appears in journals such as Social Science Research, International Journal of Comparative Sociology, Sociological Forum, and Sociological Perspectives.

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The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries,1990–2018

Abstract

Keywords

Cross-national trends in fertility rates

Dependency theory

Trade, FDI, and debt

Summary of propositions

Data

Dependent variable

Fertility

Explanatory variables of interest

Trade openness

Exports to HICs from LDCs

FDI penetration

Total debt service ratio

Control variables

Economic development

Democracy

Women labor force participation

Method

GLS RE panel regression models

Results

Discussion and conclusion

Supplemental Material

sj-docx-1-csi-10.1177_00113921231223184 – Supplemental material for The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries, 1990–2018

Supplemental Material

sj-docx-2-csi-10.1177_00113921231223184 – Supplemental material for The effects of economic globalization on fertility in developing countries, 1990–2018

Footnotes

Acknowledgements

Funding

ORCID iD

Supplemental material

Author biography

References

Supplementary Material