Increasing Risks for Armed Conflict: Climate Change,Food and Water Insecurity,and Forced Displacement

Abstract

The interrelated factors of climate change, decreased access to freshwater, and forced displacement are heightening the risk of armed conflict. Higher temperatures and extremes of precipitation are contributing to food and water insecurity, forced displacement, and sociopolitical tensions. Health professionals can help to address these problems through education, advocacy, and other activities that aim to mitigate and adapt to climate change and minimize the risk of armed conflict.

Keywords

war armed conflict climate change access to water forced displacement

Armed conflict has profound consequences for global public health.¹ Armed conflict causes injury, disease, disability, and death. It destroys the health-supporting infrastructure of society, including systems for safe food and water, sanitation, health care, and public health. It contaminates and damages the physical environment. It forcibly displaces people from their homes, communities, and countries. It violates fundamental human rights. It diverts human and financial resources. And it leads to more violence.

Armed conflict threatens to erase many of the gains in health and economic status in recent years, especially in low- and middle-income countries. And it threatens to decrease the likelihood of achieving, by 2030, the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations.²

In the next decade, substantially more armed conflict is likely, due to the persistence of these factors:

Weakening of multinational alliances and international institutions, which have helped to maintain peace and security for decades since the end of World War II³

Increased military expenditures and the international arms trade⁴

The continuing threat of nuclear weapons⁵

Increasing tensions between ethnic groups within countries⁶

Global climate change and its consequences^7–11

Decreasing access to freshwater in many low- and middle-income countries¹²

Forced displacement of people from their homes, their communities, and often their countries.¹³

This commentary will briefly describe the interrelated factors of climate change, decreasing access to freshwater, and forced displacement; how these factors are contributing to the increased probability of armed conflict; and what health professionals can do to help address these factors.

Climate Change and Its Health Consequences

Global climate change represents profound and widespread challenges for public health and security. Ambient temperature has increased approximately 1°C (1.8°F) since the mid-1800s and is likely to increase at least another 1°C – and perhaps considerably more – by the end of this century.¹⁴ In addition to a warmer mean temperature, heat waves are more severe, more frequent, and longer lasting.¹⁵

Global climate change is causing extremes of precipitation: decreased rainfall with increased risk of drought in some areas, increased rainfall with increased risk of flooding in others, and more frequent hurricanes and other extreme weather events.¹⁴ A warmer temperature and extremes of precipitation are adversely affecting agricultural yields and, in turn, food security.¹⁶

Global climate change is also causing sea-level rise – a mean of 8 inches in the past 100 years – equal to the sea-level rise in the previous 2,000 years.¹⁷ Sea level will likely rise at least 12 inches by the end of this century – and perhaps substantially more, given recent reports of markedly accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet and parts of Antarctica.^18,19

Climate change causes or contributes to the occurrence of heat-related disorders, such as dehydration and heat stroke, and heat-related complications of chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.^20,21 In addition, higher temperature is adversely affecting worker productivity, especially in low- and middle-income countries, with resultant adverse economic consequences.²² Climate change is also contributing to the occurrence of:

Respiratory disorders, such as exacerbations of asthma, and allergic disorders, such as allergic rhinitis²³

Vector-borne, waterborne, and foodborne infectious diseases^24–26

Injuries from extreme weather events²⁷

Anxiety, depression, and other mental health problems.²⁸

Climate change reduces food security.¹⁶ In a 2014 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that climate change without adaptation will negatively impact production of major crops in areas where temperature increases are 2°C or more above late-20th-century levels; it also projected that, after 2050, the risk of more severe impacts increases, especially in low-latitude countries.²⁹ It is estimated that medium-high climate change will lead to an additional 25.2 million malnourished children by the year 2050.³⁰ Reduced food security and reduced availability of freshwater are causing many people to flee their homes, their communities, and often their countries – risking their health and safety and potentially causing or contributing to socioeconomic and political instability as well as armed conflict.

Forced Displacement

Displaced persons number more than 65 million worldwide, the majority displaced within their own countries.¹³ Most of them have fled because of armed conflict, drought, and related problems.

In 2009, the chief of UNHCR: The UN Refugee Agency noted that, in the previous year, more than 20 million people had been forced to move due to factors related to climate change, mainly storms and floods.³¹ Climate change will force many more to migrate. Projections of the number of persons displaced by climate change by the year 2050 vary widely, from 25 million to 1 billion people, with 200 million people being the most widely cited estimate.³² This displacement will likely be mainly due to food and water shortages, in addition to rising sea level, especially in low-lying countries, such as Bangladesh and some island nations in the Pacific Ocean. The massive Himalayan glaciers, which supply water to all of the major rivers in South Asia and Southeast Asia, are markedly shrinking, portending serious water shortages for the future.³³

Climate Change and Conflict

Climate change is rarely, if ever, the sole cause of armed conflict. However, a substantial body of evidence suggests that climate change can contribute to the initiation or persistence of conflict.^34,35 Numerous studies that have been performed in many different locations and time periods as well as 2 large meta-analyses support this association.^36,37 One of the meta-analyses, which was based on 60 longitudinal studies, found that deviations from normal precipitation and from mild temperatures significantly increased conflict, especially in poorer populations.³⁶ (Some have criticized this meta-analysis, and the authors have refuted their critiques.^38,39) The other meta-analysis, based on 50 quantitative studies, led to a similar conclusion.³⁷ Increased ambient temperature and extremes of rainfall appear to play important roles in the complex pathways that underlie this association.

Climate change was one of several factors that contributed to the initiation of the civil war in Syria, which has now caused the deaths of more than 500,000 people and forced more than 5 million people to migrate to other countries. From 2006 to 2010, Syria experienced a severe drought, to which climate change likely contributed. An estimated 60% of farmland was turned into desert, and approximately 80% of livestock died. Almost 1 million farmers and their families fled to cities, where they experienced ethnic discrimination. Their presence overwhelmed the government’s ability to provide for their basic needs, which heightened already-present political and socioeconomic instability and contributed to the start of the civil war.⁴⁰

Water Shortage and Conflict

Water shortage is a major risk factor for conflict.⁴¹ The global supply of freshwater is relatively fixed, but demand is increasing. Sharing of water between countries is common. The water in 263 river basins is shared by 2 or more countries; for example, 11 countries share water in the Nile River basin.⁴²

More than 700 million people experience water scarcity, and another 1.6 billion experience economic water shortages, where countries lack sufficient infrastructure to use water from aquifers and rivers.⁴³ In 1990, 11 countries in the Middle East and Africa experienced water scarcity, and all 11 will likely have much less water per person in 2025 than in 1990 because of population growth.⁴⁴ In addition to impacts on health, water scarcity can adversely affect food security, energy generation, and industrial development. Water scarcity will likely become far worse as the global population grows from about 7.5 billion to approximately 9.7 billion people over the next 3 decades.

Water-related conflicts have been steadily increasing for decades, with an apparent sharp increase in the past decade. The average number of water-related conflicts per year has increased from 0.5 from 1900 through 1959, to 1.7 from 1960 through 1989, to 7.2 from 1990 through 2009, and to 32.3 from 2010 through 2017 – although increased reporting may have accounted for some of the increase in the last of these periods.^45,46

Most of these conflicts have been within, and not between, countries and have often been associated with subnational disputes, terrorist attacks, or local violence regarding equitable access to water.⁴⁶ Even though the majority of water-related conflicts have occurred in areas where violence is widespread, few have become violent.

The precipitating causes of water-related conflict include sociopolitical tensions, including disputes over borders; disputes regarding reservoirs, dams, and other large-scale projects; and disputes regarding environmental and resource issues.⁴⁶ Peter Gleick has identified the following categories of how water resources or water systems relate to conflict: water as a military tool or as a weapon used by state actors; water as a target of state actors or non-state actors (terrorists); and development disputes, in which water resources or systems are a source of contention or dispute in the context of social or economic development.⁴⁷

Not all water disputes lead to armed conflict. In fact, the majority lead to cooperative efforts between countries. There have been almost 4,000 unilateral, bilateral, or multilateral declarations or conventions regarding water, including almost 300 treaties – most focusing on use, development, protection, and conservation of water resources. In addition, there have been many examples of cooperation and peace building, which have prevented or resolved water-related conflicts.⁴⁸

Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Injustice

The health and environmental consequences of climate change threaten human rights, such as the right to access safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. Within countries, those people who are most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change are low-income people, members of minority groups, children, women, older people, individuals with chronic noncommunicable diseases, people with physical or mental disabilities, residents of areas where climate-sensitive diseases are prevalent, and workers who are exposed to extreme heat.⁴⁹ Considerable inequity exists between countries. High-income countries, which have produced the most greenhouse gases, are generally less affected by the consequences of climate change than low-income countries, which have produced much lower amounts of greenhouse gases.⁵⁰ Mitigation and adaptation measures to address climate change must be equitable, must ensure that human rights are protected, and must avoid generating new challenges or exacerbating existing ones for vulnerable populations.

Roles of Health Professionals

As health professionals, we have important roles and responsibilities in addressing climate change and its consequences, including armed conflict:

Educating our colleagues and students, policymakers, and the general public about the health consequences of climate change and motivating them to take action to prevent these consequences

Advocating, ideally through professional and nongovernmental organizations, for policies to mitigate the emission of greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. These include policies to promote the use of renewable energy, policies to promote active transport (walking and bicycling) and use of public transportation, and policies to promote plant-based diets and reduce meat consumption.

Promoting measures, often at the local level, to adapt to climate change and to build community resilience

Supporting policies and programs in the institutions with which we are affiliated to adopt renewable energy, reduce medical waste, and divest from companies that produce fossil fuels

Serving as role models for others by transitioning to renewable sources of energy, reducing energy use, engaging in active transport, and consuming a plant-based diet.

Climate change and its consequences represent a major challenge to public health, locally, nationally, and globally. The time for action is now.^51,52

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Author Biography

Barry S. Levy, MD, MPH, is an occupational and environmental medicine physician and epidemiologist. He received his BS degree from Tufts in 1966, his MD degree from Cornell in 1971, and his MPH degree from Harvard in 1970. He completed residencies in internal medicine and preventive medicine. Levy is an adjunct professor of public health in the Department of Public Health and Community Medicine at the Tufts University School of Medicine. He previously served as a medical epidemiologist with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a professor of family and community medicine at the University of Massachusetts Medical School, and director of international health programs and projects. Levy has coedited 20 books on occupational and environmental health, including climate change; on the impacts of war, terrorism, and social injustice on public health; and on other subjects. He has authored and co-authored more than 200 journal articles and book chapters, including papers on climate change and its relationships to collective violence, human rights, and social justice. Levy is a past president of the American Public Health Association and a recipient of its highest honor, the Sedgwick Memorial Medal.

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