Abstract
69.5057 ABDULJABER, Malek —
This research [examines] the dimensionality of political ideology on the political parties' level in the Arab World. It tests the polarization thesis claiming that Arab politics is driven by a unidimensional political conflict between Islamists and Secularists. This research empirically assesses whether the church versus-state-cleavage has been the dominant political conflict in the region following the Arab Spring. This research utilizes quantitative content-analyses of party manifestos in order to construct a new dataset for measuring party positions in Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco on thirty politically relevant issues. From this data, multidimensional scaling is applied, generating a graphical configuration of the dimensionality, type, and structuration of political ideology on the party level in the Middle East. [R, abr.]
69.5058 ABRAMOWITZ, Alan; McCOY, Jennifer —
Growing racial, ideological, and cultural polarization within the American electorate contributed to the shocking victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Using data from American National Election Studies surveys, we show that Trump's unusually explicit appeals to racial and ethnic resentment attracted strong support from white working-class voters while repelling many college-educated whites along with the overwhelming majority of nonwhite voters. However, Trump's campaign exploited divisions that have been growing within the electorate for decades because of demographic and cultural changes in American society. The 2016 presidential campaign also reinforced another longstanding trend in American electoral politics: the rise of negative partisanship. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5059 ABTS, Koen; DALLE MULLE, Emmanuel; LAERMANS, Rudi —
Since the early 2000s, the Flemish nationalist party New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) has experienced a burgeoning growth. Paradoxically, for a stateless nationalist and regionalist party (SNRP), this performance has occurred without major changes in mass support for independence and only ambiguous ones for more regional autonomy, which suggests that the party appeals to different electoral subgroups through a vote-maximization strategy of issue diversification. Providing an in-depth analysis of the multidimensional ideology of N-VA, this article contributes to the literature on SNRPs by arguing that N-VA has gone beyond issue diversification through a strategy of “issue communitarization” that consists not only in expanding its agenda beyond the center-periphery cleavage, but rather in framing all other policy issues explicitly in (sub-state) nationalist terms. [R, abr.]
69.5060 ACKERMANN, Maya; ACKERMANN, Kathrin; FREITAG, Markus —
While some scholars call for mechanisms to give citizens a greater voice in politics, others critically question the demand for more citizen participation. Rather, they find that the people do not want to be involved in politics and prefer independent experts to make political decisions. This perspective is captured by J. R. Hibbing and E. Theiss-Morse in their concept of stealth democracy [Stealth Democracy: Americans' Beliefs About How Government Should Work, Cambridge U. P. 2002]. They describe stealth democrats as people who think that political debates are unnecessary or who naturally avoid all sorts of conflict. This article evaluates the personality of stealth democrats and makes use of a well-known concept to capture personality traits, the “Big Five” model. [R, abr.]
69.5061 AFZAL, Madiha —
Threats to the media come from many sides in Pakistan: the military and its intelligence agencies, terrorists, and more recently, political parties. They tend to be directed at coverage of issues seen as sensitive — especially ethnic protest movements and insurgencies; militant groups and their ties with the military; a secular view of Pakistan as opposed to an Islamic state; and criticisms of the military that seriously undermine its supremacy. The threats are sometimes financial, at other times violent, with the aim of enforcing censorship; media outlets and individuals also preemptively resort to self-censorship. The overall effect is to limit the range of views available to Pakistanis to those that are more conservative, and that preserve the military's dominance. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5062 AGUILAR, Rosario; HUGHES, D. Alex; GELL-REDMAN, Micah —
Does pre-existing preference based on skin tone, facial features, and other observable characteristics, i.e., phenotypic preference, affect immigrant voters' support for political candidates competing in their countries of origin? Do these preferences change as migrants' tenure in their host society increases? These questions are important for ethnic and racial politics in general, and particularly for the sizable foreign-born population in the US, which includes 11 million Mexicans. Using a unique, random sample of foreign-born Mexicans in San Diego County, we employ a voting experiment to test the impact of skin tone and phe-notype on vote choice among first generation immigrants. Our design allows us to distinguish responses to different phenotypic cues by exposing respondents to European, mestizo, and indigenous looking candidates competing in a hypothetical Mexican election. [R, abr.]
69.5063 AL, Serhun —
The pro-Kurdish nationalist mobilization in Turkey was mostly built on the right to self-determination aligned with the Marxist-Leninist ideology for the insurgent Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the early 1980s and ethnic minority rights for the secular-leftist pro-Kurdish legal parties in the 1990s. The Turkish state mostly framed the legal and illegal pro-Kurdish mobilization as “the enemy of the state” and “the enemy of Islam” in its counter-insurgency efforts. However, in the 2000s, the PKK and the pro-Kurdish legal parties became more tolerant and inclusive toward Islamic Kurdish identity by mobilizing their sympathizers in events such as “Civic Friday Prayers” and a “Democratic Islamic Congress”. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5680]
69.5064 ALLEN, Nathan; LAWLOR, Andrea; GRAHAM, Katerina —
Chinese government officials and some Canadian foreign policy experts have challenged the content and tone of Canadian media's coverage of China. Canadian media coverage is thought to negatively bias public opinion and thereby constrain foreign policy choices available to policymakers. Scholars of Canada-Japan relations worry that decreasing media attention could have longer term effects on bilateral ties. Through an analysis of over 30,000 articles appearing in three major Canadian news publications over a 15-year time span (2000-2015), we identify how news about these countries is framed to the Canadian public and how these frames change over time. Our central finding is that the Canadian media experienced a “twenty-first century discovery of China” in 2004-2005. [R, abr.]
69.5065 ALSHAIKH, Ala'a Bakur —
The effects of Arab Spring led to widespread dissent among Saudi citizens, culminating in governmental fear of civil revolt. Thus, the Ministry of Labor introduced many developmental policies such as localization, women employment that aimed to develop the country and satisfy the needs of citizens to offset rising inflation. These policies were said to be in the best interests of Saudi citizens. This study has therefore intended to investigate the extent to which the Ministry of Labor engaged and consulted with its citizens prior to the introduction of those policies. This study found that Saudi citizens participated via social dialogues, together, social media and digital communication in democratic governance. However, there is a gap in the perceptions of the Saudi elite and citizens regarding the significance of citizen participation in Saudi governance. [R, abr.]
69.5066 ANDREADIS, Ioannis; STAVRAKAKIS, Yannis —
This article focuses on the dynamics of polarization emerging within Greek political culture in the post-authoritarian setting. Following a brief historical framing, we trace Left-Right polarization between the two major parties of the period: Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) and New Democracy (ND). The party-based polarization of PASOK/ND was arguably the main axis of political antagonism in Greece from the 1970s until the end of the 2000s. By 2009, polarization had ebbed due to an ideological convergence of the two parties toward the center, but the onset of the 2009 economic crisis dislocated the established two-party system and facilitated the emergence of a new political landscape comprising many new political actors, most notably the Coalition of the Radical Left, Syriza. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5067 ANDREOULI, Eleni; NICHOLSON, Cathy —
The article presents an analysis of lay political reasoning on the UK EU referendum drawing on data from nine focus groups conducted in England in the few weeks preceding the vote. Participants were from across the political spectrum and with varied voting intentions in the upcoming referendum (Remain, Leave, and some undecided). A rhetorical analysis of the data showed that the ideological dilemma of nationalism (between safeguarding national distinctiveness and sovereignty, on the one hand, and valuing international collaboration and exchange, on the other hand) was a key organizing principle in participants' accounts, as was the distinction between reason and bias. Participants intending to vote Leave as well as Remain engaged with both sides of the nationalism dilemma, seeking to present themselves as both open to cosmopolitan values and as concerned about preserving national sovereignty. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5068 ANDREWS-LEE, Caitlin —
Scholars have long claimed that political movements founded by charismatic leaders must undergo “routinization,” or depersonalization, to survive. Yet many such movements appear to have sustained their charismatic nature and have persisted or reemerged in cases as diverse as Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Turkey, and China. Focusing on Argentine Peronism and Venezuelan Chavismo, this article examines the potential of new leaders to revive their charismatic predecessors' legacies to perpetuate the movement and gain the followers' support. Through face-to-face survey experiments conducted in both countries, the article shows that new leaders who (a) implement bold, initially impressive policies and (b) symbolically tie themselves to the charismatic founder cause citizens to express stronger emotional attachments to the movement and garner political support. [R, abr.]
69.5069 ANDUIZA, Eva; GUINJOAN, Marc; RICO, Guillem —
This article analyses the relationship between populist attitudes and political participation. We argue that populist attitudes can be a motivation for participation through their identity, emotional, and moral components, and that they have the potential to narrow socioeconomic gaps in participation. Using survey data from nine European countries, our results show that populist attitudes are positively related to expressive non-institutionalized modes of participation (petition signing, online participation and, in some contexts, demonstrating), but not to turnout. In addition, populist attitudes are found to reduce education-based gaps and even reverse income-based inequalities in political participation. The implications of these findings are discussed. [R]
69.5070 ARUGAY, Aries A.; SLATER, Dan —
The Philippines suffered a crisis of polarization during the short-lived Estrada presidency (1998-2001) and that of his successor, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (2001-2010). The severe conflict was a product of power maneuvers by anti-Estrada forces, followed by anti-Arroyo actors returning the favor, given her gross abuses of power. Echoing Machiavelli's famous distinction, the conflict pitted Estrada's popoli (the many) against Arroyo's oligarchic grandi (the few). This Machiavellian conflict ended with an oligarchic reassertion of Madisonian democratic rule through the electoral victory of Benigno Simeon Aquino III in 2010. We consider whether the populist challenge of current president Rodrigo Duterte (2016-) might spark a similarly destabilizing conflict in the years to come. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5071 BALDWIN-PHILIPPI, Jessica —
This article investigates the Trump campaign's strategic use of digital platforms and their affordances and norms that contribute to a technological performance of populism. I build on theories of populism as a performance, rather than a set of identifiable qualities, and make a theoretical intervention calling for the need to add a material and technological focus to how scholars approach the concept in our contemporary media environment. This article presents a model for understanding populist affordances as those that center “the people” to various degrees, and applies that model in a case study of how campaigns in the 2016 US presidential race engaged in a technological performance of populism across a variety of platforms, including email, Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and campaign-created mobile apps. [R, abr.]
69.5072 BANTEKA, Nadia —
This article examines the resurgence of such extreme right-wing political parties and the relationship between right-wing extremism, political parties, and terrorism. The goal is to shift the discussion from one of political analysis of right-wing extremism to one of legal evaluation of the activities involved within the ambit of the recent advances in the criminal-ization of terrorism. Could the mobilization of extreme right-wing political parties be classified as terrorism? This article assesses the definitional problem of terrorism and critically analyzes the most recent legislative developments in the EU. It focuses on the uneasy relationship between the legal nature of political parties and the crime of terrorism. It then applies insights from this debate to the specific case of Greece's popular extreme right-wing political party: Golden Dawn. [R, abr.]
69.5073 BATTO, Nathan F. —
The KMT's electoral defeat in 2016 was not a case of a dominant party crashing to defeat due to mismanaging its factions or ineptly allocating state resources. This article illustrates a third path by which dominant parties can lose power. The KMT lost because the underlying cleavage structure slowly shifted and eroded the KMT's political foundations over a quarter century. Indeed, the KMT had ceased to be a dominant party long before 2016; that election was merely a particularly dramatic step in what was actually a long decline. Taiwan has a single dominant political cleavage defined by national identity. Since the early 1990s, exclusive Taiwanese identity has gradually increased and eventually replaced both Taiwanese and Chinese identity as the majority disposition. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5177]
69.5074 BAYLOUNY, Anne Marie; MULLINS, Creighton A. —
The role of resources in war has been much debated. What happens when foreign patrons provide lavish amounts of cash to rebels, without mechanisms of accountability? This article analyzes three major sources of funding and their micro-level effects on insurgent-groups in the Syrian civil war. Recipients of funding demonstrated opportunism in actions, alliances, and ideologies, directly related to the funding source. Funders thus set the agenda of the war, promoting Islamist ideologies and regional over local issues. Private donors rivaled state sponsors, in what may be a harbinger of future globalization trends. [R]
69.5075 BELTON, Kristy A. —
Two global voting trends are noted in the electoral studies literature: the exclusion of resident noncitizens and the inclusion of non-resident citizens in national elections. These two research streams are rarely studied together. By analysing both of these trends in the Commonwealth Caribbean, the article reveals how the assumed relationship between citizenship and the right to vote does not always hold. Citizenship is neither necessary nor sufficient to exercise full political rights. The Commonwealth Caribbean thus diverges from global voting trends and illustrates the complexities and changing shape of the relationship between citizenship and the right to vote. [R]
69.5076 BERMEO, Nancy —
This article reflects on whether the erosion of democracy in the contemporary US can be halted. Using the cases and conclusions from J. McCoy and M. Somer's eleven country collective project, it argues that democracy's decline is not inevitable. A case for cautious optimism emerges from analyzing the coalitions around democracy's disassemblers and democracy's defenders. The actors disassembling democracy have activated cleavages and adopted a style of rule that exacerbates fault-lines on the Right. The actors defending democracy have thus far done what's needed to eventually build the sort of winning coalition that has proven successful elsewhere. Creating broad, cross-class networks, mobilizing peaceful protest, and drawing on mass values that are still supportive of democracy bolster the likelihood of successful defense. [R] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5077 BERNICK, Ethan M.; HEIDBREDER, Brianne —
This research examines the position of county clerk, where women are numerically disproportionately overrepresented. Using data collected from the National Association of Counties and the US Census Bureau, the models estimate the correlation between the county clerk's sex and county-level demographic, social, and political factors with maximum likelihood logit estimates. This research suggests that while women are better represented in the office of county clerk across the US, when compared to other elective offices, this representation may be because this office is not seen as attractive to men and its responsibilities fit within the construct of traditional gender norms. [R]
69.5078 BERNING, Carl C.; LUBBERS, Marcel; SCHLUETER, Elmar —
This contribution provides evidence for the sources of sympathies for radical right-wing populist (RRP) parties in a longitudinal perspective. We extend previous knowledge by evaluating the impact of media attention on individual changes of RRP party sympathies. To test our hypotheses, we use panel data from The Netherlands and combine it with information on the saliency of RRP parties and their issues in major Dutch newspapers. Drawing on multilevel structural equation models, our findings indicate that media attention positively affects changes in RRP party sympathies. Furthermore, we find that the effect of media attention on RRP party sympathies is enhanced by perceived ethnic threat and Euroskepticism, respectively. In sum, this study shows that media attention to RRP parties is pivotal for the fortune of such parties. [R]
69.5079 BIANCALANA, Cecilia —
This article analyzes the evolution of the Movimento Cinque Stelle (Five-star Movement, M5s) in the city of Turin from its beginnings to the election of Chiara Appendino as mayor in June 2016 in order to assess the impact of the passing of the threshold of government on three distinct areas: party organization, the party's identity and “ideology” and the Movement's relationship with citizens, social movements and the local media. Although an organization similar to that of traditional parties has not developed over time, the results show that with the passing of the threshold of government the M5s became more centralized, and personalization processes emerged: in the absence of a formalized party structure, the candidates and then the elected representatives gained significant decision-making powers. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5080]
69.5080 BIORCIO, Roberto; SAMPUGNARO, Rossana —
The special issue is the result of research and analysis concerning the activities of the Five-star Movement (M5s) in the local and national institutions and the process of institutionalization undergone by this new political entity. Even though the M5s has resisted being transformed into a political party, it is having to face the problems associated with its relative institutionalization: the selection of personnel; the coordination of activities; decision making. Like many other movements, the M5s has brought a new logic to the institutions and some innovative practices, but has been forced to adapt to the insider's rules. [R] [Introduction to a special issue of the same title. See also Abstr. 69.5079, 5202, 5252, 5255]
69.5081 BIRCH, Sarah; DENNISON, James —
Political scientists have identified protest voting — voting for an anti-establishment party as a protest against mainstream politics — as a consequence of dissatisfaction with traditional political options. Yet we know little about what motivates people to cast a protest vote or why voters select one such protest option over another. Taking as its empirical referent the 2015 General Election in Great Britain, this article assesses the ‘protest choice' in parliamentary democracies. We test three possible theoretical explanations for protest voting: ideology, mistrust of political elites and campaign effects. We find that the most important factors affecting protest choice are issue positions and campaign effects. The findings suggest that protest voting is a complex phenomenon that cannot be reduced to knee-jerk anti-politics reactions. [R]
69.5082 BOCK, Jan-Jonathan —
Talk about a “refugee crisis” dominated Germany's political discourse in 2015/2016. The arrival of hundreds of thousands of foreigners desiring protection shaped public and private debates. However, rather than taking the term refugee crisis for granted, this article suggests that critical experiences in Germany, and responses to them, were shaped by the failure of state institutions. Following privatization and cuts to social services, national, regional, and local authorities lacked the capacity to respond adequately to newcomers' needs. The sight of failing state institutions contributed to a sense of crisis. Simultaneously, however, the apparent state incapacity — particularly also in Berlin, the focus of this article — opened up spaces for emergent civil society actors, including minority groups. [R, abr.] [Part of a special issue on “Faith and social activism in Europe: finding inclusion in an age of division” edited and introduced by Shana COHEN, “Populism is not the only trend”, pp. 329-333]
69.5083 BORGES, André; TURGEON, Mathieu —
Research on presidential coattails in elections has focused nearly exclusively on two-party systems like the US. Much less is known, however, about presidential coattails in multiparty systems where electoral and governing coalitions are common currency. Under coalitional presiden-tialism, we argue that presidential coattails are diffused, benefiting the president's party but also her coalition party members, especially those most strongly associated with the coalition itself. Using electoral data from Chile and Brazil, two widely studied but distinct cases of coalitional presidentialism, we find strong evidence supporting this claim. The results carry important implications for students of coalitional presiden-tialism, presidential coattails, and party systems, more generally. [R]
69.5084 BOSCH, Agusti; DURÁN, Iván M. —
This article examines the influence of economic crisis on voting preferences for the emerging Spanish parties (Podemos and Ciudadanos). We develop a multinomial model that tests their voting antecedents, and we find three results that may be relevant for the literature on the emergence of parties. First, a negative evaluation of the country's economic situation has a major impact on votes for the two parties. Second, the perception of corruption also plays a crucial role in understanding support for the two emerging parties. And third, both the evaluation of the country's economic situation and the perception of corruption interact to account for the emergence of both Podemos and Ciudadanos. We conclude that the emergence of new parties has an economic basis, but political factors — such as corruption — are not suppressed by this. [R, abr.]
69.5085 BOUKARI, Mamadou; FARVAQUE, Etienne —
Politicians are always seeking popularity, and they use several tools to try to influence their approval rate. We investigate the dynamic relationship between French executive politicians' approval rates and three types of legislative acts (laws, ordinances, and decrees) that they can use to signal their policy stance. Given the persistent debate over causality between public opinion and policy, our results show that a strong President (in terms of popularity) can rely more on ordinances without damaging his/her popularity. Moreover, the use of ordinances also benefits the Prime Minister's popularity. Decrees are more beneficial to the Prime Minister than to the President. In terms of the agenda, if there is a honeymoon effect, legislative activism does nothing to prevent the fall in popularity at the end of a mandate. [R, abr.]
69.5086 BRAITHWAITE, Alex, et al. —
How do individuals' experiences with political violence affect their perceptions regarding the risk associated with hosting refugees? This is an important question given that many communities are beginning to resent and oppose hosting refugees. We study recent exposure to violence within Lebanon, which is a meaningful context since Lebanon serves as host to more than one million refugees from the Syrian Civil War. We adopt a novel empirical strategy to isolate the effect of exposure to violence upon perceptions of risk associated with hosting refugees. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of violent events linked to refugee populations in Lebanon relative to the timing of responses to our nationally representative survey deployed between June and August 2017. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5521]
69.5087 BRESSANELLI, Edoardo; CANDIA, Margherita de —
The Five Star Movement (M5S) formed the Eurosceptic Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy Group when it first elected its members in the European Parliament (EP) in 2014. Two and a half years later, the M5S sought, without success, to leave the Eurosceptics and join the Liberal group. This attempted a change of transnational affiliation is puzzling: why has the M5S tried to leave the Eurosceptic group to ally with the most Europhile group in the EP? How could this U-turn be explained? Relying on several different data — the EUANDI party data set, official EP data, and original interviews with members of the EP — this article provides a systematic answer to these questions. We show that neither policy congruence nor the pursuit of office fully explains the M5S's observed or attempted alliances. [R, abr.]
69.5088 BROSIUS, Anna; VAN ELSAS, Erika J.; VREESE, Claes H. de —
Over the past decade, the EU has lost the trust of many citizens. This article investigates whether and how media information, in particular visibility and tonality, impact trust in the EU among citizens. Combining content-analysis and Eurobarometer survey data from 10 countries between 2004 and 2015, we study both direct and moderating media effects. Media tone and visibility have limited direct effects on trust in the EU, but they moderate the relation between trust in national institutions and trust in the EU. This relation is amplified when the EU is more visible in the media and when media tone is more positive towards the EU, whereas it is dampened when media tone is more negative. The findings highlight the role of news media in the crisis of trust in the EU. [R]
69.5089 BRUYCKER, Iskander de; BEYERS, Jan —
In their pursuit of political influence, interest groups face the choice to contact policy elites directly or to generate pressure indirectly by appealing to the public at large. This article examines whether interest groups should prioritize inside or outside lobbying tactics in order to materialize their policy objectives, with a specific focus on European Union legislative policymaking. This article demonstrates that outside lobbying is not inherently more or less successful than inside lobbying; rather, the effect of inside or outside lobbying is conditional on the extent to which additional lobbying tactics are adopted and on the type of policy issues a lobbyist seeks to influence. [R, abr.]
69.5090 BURBACH, David T. —
Americans express more confidence in their military than any other institution. The components and causes of confidence have been little studied, especially as a partisan phenomenon. This study assesses trends in how partisanship and ideology affect confidence in the military. Multivariate analysis of General Social Survey and Harris Poll data shows that while confidence has increased for all demographic and political subgroups, partisanship and ideology play larger roles than commonly recognized. Democrats and Republicans are more confident than independents, but Republican confidence increased sharply over the last 20 years. Party ID is now the best predictor of one's confidence in the military. Conservative ideology has little effect, but liberalism reduces confidence, splitting Democrats. The pattern is not only “Repub-licanization,” however; partisans on both sides are more confident when their party holds the White House. [R]
69.5091 BURCHARDT, Marian; GRIERA, Mar —
Why has the face veil become the center of political debates about Islam in urban contexts? What kinds of experiences and ideas have animated its framing as a practice in need of regulation? Focusing on Spain, we argue that space and emotion are the key categories for explaining the micro-politics of face veil conflicts and that constitute face veiling as an object of contention “on the ground”. We suggest the notion of regimes of public space and highlight three central components: (1) understandings of ideal public space; (2) regimes of urban visibility; (3) emotional regimes. Taken together, these dimensions filter forms of inclusion and exclusion that emerge from regulatory practices and feed into graduated forms of urban citizenship and frame people's sensibilities. [R, abr.]
69.5092 BUTLER, Patrick —
Freedom of the press has always been boisterous, from the earliest days of the American republic, but it has always been viewed as an essential check on government power. In the 20th c., when news media generally adhered to common (and high) standards of objectivity, public trust was robust. In the 21st c., social media have revived an earlier tradition of highly opinionated information and questionable accuracy. When everyone is a publisher, and even basic facts are often in dispute, how can the news consumer know what to believe? Public television has retained the trust of a remarkable range of ideological competitors, but views of other media now reflect sharp political divides. Can anything be done to restore widespread trust in the news media? [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5093 BWALYA, John; SICHONE, Owen B. —
Based on the Zambian polity, this article uses the concept of selectocra-cy to explain why, to a large extent, intra-party democracy has remained a refractory frontier. Two traits of intra-party democracy are examined: leadership transitions at party president-level and the selection of political party members for key leadership positions. The present study of four political parties: United National Independence Party (UNIP), Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), United Party for National Development (UPND) and Patriotic Front (PF) demonstrates that the iron law of oligarchy predominates leadership transitions and selection. Within this milieu, intertwined but fluid factors, inimical to democratic consolidation but underpinning selectocracy, are explained. [R, abr.]
69.5094 BYMAN, Daniel —
Jihadist foreign fighters are frequently described as non-state actors whose prominence challenges the traditional, state-dominated international system and our understanding of it. In practice, however, foreign fighters rely heavily on the very states they reject. Some of the most important foreign fighter movements in the world today receive massive and explicit state support, while still others rely on states to tolerate their fundraising, transit, recruitment, and other core activities. Yet the scope, scale, and nature of this reliance varies tremendously, as does its overall impact. To stop or at least limit these flows, it is vital to change the policies and capacities of these state backers. [R]
69.5095 CAHILL, Christine; TOMASHEVSKIY, Andrey —
An important dimension of party positioning remains largely unexamined — that is, the clarity with which parties present policies to the electorate. Moreover, the effects of private campaign contributions on party positions are also vastly understudied. We address these gaps using a unique new data set on private contributions to political parties in eight OECD countries from the early 1990s to the present. We argue that parties are incentivized to present increasingly ambiguous, or broad appeal, policy positions as a result of increased private campaign contributions. Broad appeal campaigns allow parties to appease their donors with more extreme policy preferences while maintaining the support of their more moderate base supporters. We find support for this argument and show that increasing donations are associated with increased policy ambiguity. [R, abr.]
69.5096 CALCA, Patrícia; GROSS, Martin —
How do parties react to unanticipated events such as external shocks? Do they adapt to the consequences of the external shock or do they disregard them? Using the global financial crisis as an empirical example and testing the expectations for parties' economic policy shifts in 23 European democracies based on Chapel Hill Expert Survey data, the article demonstrates that government parties react more to an external shock than opposition parties, particularly in countries where the external shock has been more severe. This has implications for a broader literature in comparative politics by fostering the dialogue between the political economy literature on external shocks and the literature on party policy shifts by showing the significant impact exogenous events can have on party positioning. [R]
69.5097 CANELLOS, Peter S. —
The mainstream US media are a force for human rights around the globe. [Their] struggles at home deeply undermine its mission abroad. That is why people everywhere who care about free expression should encourage the leading US outlets to band together to stress what distinguishes them from corrupt and partisan competitors. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5098 CAPELOS, Tereza; KATSANIDOU, Alexia —
The concurrent strong waves of anti-EU integration and anti-immigration preferences sweeping across Europe, capitalized on by populist discourses, reflect citizens' economic anxieties brought about by the financial crisis, dormant cultural fears, widespread suspicion towards international institutions, and frustration with “politics as usual.” Extant electoral and public opinion research provide fragmented and conflicted accounts about the psychological origins of these anti preferences. We (1) articulate a novel overarching theoretical framework that focuses on reaction as a political orientation, and (2) provide an empirical test of the proposed theory using data from the 2004 and 2014 European Social Survey. Explication of political reaction as a driver of political preferences can move forward research on challenges to democratic representation, particularly political disengagement, violent protests, and populist and antiestablishment party vote in the context of the financial crisis. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5099 ÇARKOĞLU, Ali; AKSEN, Deniz —
Moving beyond the analytical characteristics of apportionment methods or election systems, this article focuses on their outcomes in practice. We illustrate how apportionment and partisan biases working with a high threshold created an electoral environment conducive to the establishment of a predominant party system. We use the historical example of the Turkish experience. We trace the historical development of disproportionality for the entire multi-party elections for the 1950-2015 period. Focusing on the five most recent elections of this period since 2002, we demonstrate how the biases introduced by the apportionment method in use and the 10% threshold have advantaged the leading Justice and Development Party (AKP). Our study suggests that a partisan bias favoring AKP still continues to exist at a lower level even after correcting the apportionment and the threshold biases. [R, abr.]
69.5100 CARMO DUARTE, Mariana —
This article analyzes the different levels of women's parliamentary representation in Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic since 1989, through institutional variables, such as gender quotas and electoral systems. In Poland quotas are legislative while in Hungary and the Czech Republic they are set out by the political parties. In Poland and the Czech Republic the electoral system is proportional while in Hungary it is mixed. If the existence of legislative quotas seems to favor women's parliamentary representation in Poland, the electoral system does not seem to explain the different levels of women's parliamentary representation among the countries surveyed. [R]
69.5101 CARROLL, Royce; KUBO, Hiroki —
Estimates of party ideological positions in Western Democracies yield useful party-level information, but generally lack the ability to provide an insight into the intraparty politics of party elites. In this article, we generate comparable measures of latent individual policy positions from elite survey data that enable analysis of elite-level party ideology and heterogeneity. This approach has some advantages over both expert surveys and approaches based on behavioral data, such as roll-call voting, and is directly relevant to the study of party cohesion. We find that policy-seeking parties and centralized party nomination rules are associated with less party heterogeneity. While intraparty competition has no effect, such contexts appear to condition the effect of district magnitude. [R, abr.]
69.5102 CASAL BERTOA, Fernando; SPIROVA, Maria —
Much has been written about what makes political parties form, persist, change and die. One factor often brought into this discussion is the availability of resources in general and of state financing of political parties in particular. However, an empirical link at the aggregate level is difficult to establish because of various issues of conceptualization, operationalization and measurement. This article provides empirical support for the claim that parties who (anticipate to be or) are being funded by the state have a higher chance of forming and surviving in an independent format in the party system. The main conclusion of the article is that the survival rate for such parties exceeds the survival rate for the non-publicly funded ones in almost all cases. [R, abr.]
69.5103 CAVASSANA DE CARVALHO, Fernanda; MASSUCHIN, Michele Goulart; BATISTA, Isabele —
This paper discusses the phenomenon of radicalization into online conversation, especially through social network sites. Then, we analyze comments posted by Facebook users on Brazilian newspapers' fan pages on that social medium. 628,057 comments mentioning at least one of the main candidates during the campaign were classified. The article discusses some aspects of radicalization, so it analyzes two specific variables: reflexivity and form of comments. Results show that social media, even though they open a space for dialog, give place to debates in which participants prioritize criticism or praise for candidates, and they basically lead to persuasion and radicalization. [R]
69.5104 CERAN, Fatih —
This article examines the foundation of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi — AKP) after a paradigm shift and its maintenance through retooling, which involves strategic positionings and tactical manoeuvres within its new paradigm. The positionings and manoeuvres that the party took vis-à-vis states of exception have been imperative for its survival in government. The main argument of the article is that the AKP retooled itself in the face of crises rather than going through a paradigmatic change, that is to say, resorting back to the Islamism of the party elite's origins, in Kuhnian terms. Through the fluidity of its discourse and the unrivalled charisma of its leader, the AKP has -multiple times- changed the center of gravity of its discourse and policies without having to disarticulate its founding political imaginary. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5680]
69.5105 CHACKO, Priya —
Since the 1990s, Indian bureaucratic and political elites, including in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have adopted a view of the market as the main driver of societal transformations. Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, in particular, the BJP has sought to consolidate a broader support base and stimulate economic growth and job creation by bolstering the corporate sector and recreating the middle and “neo-middle” classes as “virtuous market citizens” who view themselves as entrepreneurs and consumers but whose behavior is regulated by the framework of Hindu nationalism. These policies, however, remain contested within the Hindu nationalist movement and in Indian society generally. The BJP's discourse against “anti-nationals” and the use of legal sanctions against dissent is an attempt to curb these challenges. [R, abr.]
69.5106 CHEVALIER, Tom —
Plenty of studies deal with young people. Economists on the one hand have a long tradition of analyzing youth unemployment, while sociologists have institutionalized the sub-discipline of sociology of youth, also called “youth studies.” Youth sociologists have shown to what extent the transition to adulthood has been postponed and transformed, leading to this new period of life that is “youth.” Only recently have political scientists begun to take into account this metamorphosis of the life course. I review studies on youth transitions from the comparative politics perspective. First, I will present the varieties of policies that structure these youth transitions. Second, I will analyze work on the politics of such transitions that try to identify their causes. [R]
69.5107 CHIENGKUL, Prapimphan —
This article explores the degrowth movement's main ideas, policy proposals, and examples of non-capitalist organizations and socially embedded economic networks compatible with degrowth ideas, namely, the Catalan Integral Cooperatives in Spain and Solidarity Economy Networks in Italy. It also explores degrowth's relevance to developing countries that have lower levels of material living standards compared to the European countries where it originated. Degrowth has significant potential to advance progressive socio-ecological transformation. Its advocates have also implemented some interesting alternative economic practices, such as nonmonetary exchanges and recreations of the commons, which prioritize socio-ecological sustainability over profit maximization. However, the degrowth movement has so far paid little attention to the structural hierarchy of the global political economy and hence has not made sufficient suggestions about how to address uneven development within and between countries. [R, abr.]
69.5108 CLAASSEN, Christopher; GIBSON, James L. —
Political tolerance has long been regarded as one of the most important democratic values because intolerant political cultures are believed to foster conformity and inhibit dissent. Although widely endorsed, this theory has rarely been investigated. Using multilevel regression with post-stratification to measure levels of macro-tolerance in US metropolitan areas, and event data to measure rates of protest, we test whether cultures of intolerance do indeed inhibit public expressions of dissent. We find that they do: levels of macro-tolerance are positively and strongly associated with higher rates of protest in American metropolitan areas. Our findings have implications for the study of political tolerance, for normative theories of free speech and other civil liberties, and for scholarship on protest and collective action. [R]
69.5109 CODATO, Adriano; BERLATTO, Fábia; BOLOGNESI, Bruno —
There has been a common assumption as of late that the political right has grown in Brazil since 2010. This is a complex phenomenon, as we do not seem to be before the customary political right. Alongside the right associated with major political parties historically connected to the dictatorial-military regime there are new types of parties and new political profiles on this side of the political spectrum. The article identifies the different profiles of the Brazilian right-wing by means of an inductive typology, that is, a description grounded on significant empirical cases within this political family. We propose five different types to characterize politicians within Brazil's right: the traditional politician of the right, the politician of the new popular right, the politician of the populist right, the politician of the neoliberal right, and the politician of the libertarian right. [R, abr.]
69.5110 CRAM, Laura, et al. —
Fairness perception underpins the concept of societal solidarity and is central to regime cohesion, collective identity, and popular legitimacy. The EU faces challenges on all of these fronts. Fairness perception is not, however, an objectively reliable measure. In/out-group alignments, including race and even football team membership, have been shown experimentally to influence individuals' behavior in response to equally fair/unfair monetary offers, even when this behavior is economically irrational. We develop an experimental task, using an adapted ultimatum game design, to examine how this dynamic plays out in the context of multilevel territorial identity systems, such as the EU, where no straightforward territorial in/out-group dynamic pertains. We discuss the implications of our findings for understanding complex social-identity effects in multilevel systems. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5111 CROOK, Max —
The driving forces behind the decline of the social democratic postwar consensus in Great Britain is much debated. One prominent school focuses on the structural changes in the global economy that occurred in the 1970s. Those following a structural approach have found support for their position in the claim that it was the 1974-1979 Labour governments rather than the more ideologically committed 1979-1997 Conservative governments that first responded to the changing global economy by abandoning the social democratic postwar consensus. I set out to challenge this approach by arguing that the Labour government did not fundamentally abandon the social democratic postwar consensus, and that such an abandonment was highly undesirable given the political make-up of the Labour Party and its reliance on trade union support. [R, abr.]
69.5112 CUHADAR, C. Esra —
This article examines the inclusion of business sector actors in peace and political transition negotiations. Looking across twenty-two cases, this study examines who has been included as business sector repre-sentatives in these negotiations and through which inclusion modalities. The study finds that business sector actors were included primarily through consultation modalities in officially mandated meetings running parallel to negotiations, informal consultations, or as part of public con-sultations. Second most common is direct representation of business sector actors at the negotiation table. Less common is business sector inclusion in high-level track one-and-a-half workshops and inclusive commissions. The article then focuses on the impact of business actors on negotiations. Four cases of business inclusion are discussed in detail — Somalia, Kenya, Guatemala and El Salvador — comparing and contrasting supportive and obstructive examples. [R] [See Abstr. 69.4899]
69.5113 CURTIS, K. Amber; NIELSEN, Julie Hassing —
Personality's direct effects on various aspects of political attitudes and behavior have received substantial attention, yet few investigate its indirect effects — even though several studies posit that these may be even more important. We utilize original survey data from five European countries (Denmark, Germany, Poland, Sweden, and the UK) to provide a comprehensive, cross-national test of the extent to which personal predispositions have a direct versus indirect impact on public support for the EU. Knowing that ideology is an important determinant of views towards European integration, we look specifically at the extent to which ideological self-placement mediates the effect of the Big Five personality traits on EU attitudes. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5114 CUSHION, Stephen; THOMAS, Richard —
Drawing on interviews with key stakeholders — regulators, editors, party spin-doctors and politicians — supported by a systematic content- analysis of television news during the 2015 UK General Election, this study makes an intervention into debates about how impartiality is understood and interpreted. Contrary to recent scholarly interpretations about “due impartiality” being applied with some degree of quantitative precision — a stop-watch approach to balance — according to key stakeholders we interviewed the regulation of UK election news should be viewed as a qualitative judgment about the editorial merit of particular issues, parties or leaders throughout the campaign. Overall, we argue that the UK has moved from a political system shaping impartiality in recent years towards more of a news value-driven system reliant on editorial judgments. [R, abr.]
69.5115 DARIEVA, Tsypylma —
Focusing on parts of the global Armenian diaspora and the Republic of Armenia, the article highlights the emergence of relatively new, 21st-c. modes of engagement between “diaspora” and “homeland”. In particular, examined is the role of a distinctive type of diasporic organization that positions itself as an intermediary facilitating young diasporic Armenians' travel to and volunteering in the country that is promoted as their ancestral homeland. The organizations in question display some ambivalence towards engaging with the Armenian state itself, largely bypassing the latter's political and bureaucratic structures. Rather, these organizations operate in a “grey zone”, an intermediate area between state actors, international organizations, and local community agencies, offering a model of decentralized transnational activism. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5185]
69.5116 DASSONNEVILLE, Ruth, et al. —
Political theorists have argued that democracies should strive for high turnout. Others have warned that this obligation comes at a cost of lower quality votes. We investigate these claims by examining the impact of compulsory voting on proximity voting. First, we examine individuals' voting behavior in three countries with strong compulsory voting laws: Australia, Belgium and Brazil. Election surveys in these countries include a hypothetical question about the likelihood of voting without legal obligation. We continue with an examination of the effects of compulsory voting in Switzerland, which varies across cantons. Our results support the “reluctant voter” hypothesis: Compelling voters to vote tends to weaken the impact of proximity considerations on electoral behavior, although this effect remains limited and is only significant in half of the elections that were investigated. [R, abr.]
69.5117 DAVIS, Nicholas T., et al. —
We ask how relevant nativist attitudes are when making voting decisions across party systems in the US and Europe. Are these sentiments pushing out other drivers of vote-choice, and if so, what are the ramifications for democratic governance? We present hypotheses about the impact of nativist sentiments that follow logically from the theories on spatial models of politics and political economy models of politics. We use a series of multinomial logit models on survey data from Great Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, and the US to estimate the impact of nativist sentiments on support for political parties in 2016. We find support for all three of our hypotheses. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5299]
69.5118 DELTAS, George; POLBORN, Mattias K. —
When candidates in primary elections are ideologically differentiated (e.g., conservatives and moderates in the Republican Party), then candidates with similar positions affect each others' vote-shares more strongly than candidates with different ideological positions. We measure this effect in US presidential primaries and show that it is of first-order importance. We also show that voters' beliefs about the candidates harden over the course of the primary, as manifested in the variability of candidate vote-shares. We discuss models of sequential voting that cannot yield that pattern of results, and propose an explanation based on a model with horizontally and vertically differentiated candidates and incompletely informed voters. Consistent with the predictions of this model, we also show that, in more conservative states, low-quality conservative candidates do better relative to high-quality conservatives, and vice-versa. [R]
69.5119 DONNO, Daniela; KREFT, Anne-Kathrin —
While dictatorships perform worse than democracies in respect for most human rights, a large number of autocracies have prioritized the advancement of women's rights. We present a theory of authoritarian rights provision that focuses on the incentives for dictatorships to secure women's loyalty, and we identify the particular capacity of institutionalized party-based regimes to supply — and capitalize from — women's rights policies. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of authoritarian regimes from 1963 to 2009, we find that party-based regimes are associated with greater economic and political rights for women irrespective of whether they hold multiparty elections. A comparative exploration of authoritarian Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya sheds further light on these findings and examines alternative explanations. [R, abr.]
69.5120 DORMAGEN, Jean-Yves; MICHEL, Laura —
As J.-L. Schanze shows [See Abstr. 69.5258], probability-based surveys better reflect the share of people “85 years and over” in samples than quota surveys. But they still seem to be affected by the same selection/self-selection biases as quota surveys. In particular, they include an excessively high share of voters, even in segments with high abstention-ism, such as the “85 years and over” group. They do not enable the detection of the beginning of the decline in participation from the age of 70, or the acceleration of the abstention trend from the age of 80, let alone the collapse of participation among those “85 years and over.” They are no more effective than quota surveys in identifying the evolution of participation with aging. [R, abr.]
69.5121 DREYER, Philipp; BAUER, Johann —
This article contributes to the literature on representation by examining how the ideological polarization of the electorate affects parties' programmatic positions in multiparty systems. The main argument is that parties face incentives to adopt more extreme positions when the electorate becomes more ideologically polarized and the share of non-moderate voters is higher. The reason is that by adopting moderate positions parties will prompt their non-moderate core constituents to sit out the election. This risk is conditioned by voters' propensity to abstain. A higher (lower) propensity to abstain means that parties alienate a larger (smaller) share of their core constituents when adopting a moderate position. Parties therefore respond to greater voter polarization by adopting more extreme positions, but the effect declines as voters' propensity to abstain decreases. [R, abr.]
69.5122 DUCH, Raymond M., et al. —
Immigration is a highly salient political issue. We examine the migration preferences of potential emigrants from the UK to determine whether the migration calculus is primarily economic or political. A conjoint survey experiment was conducted with UK subjects drawn from the CESS, Nuffield College (Oxford U.), student subject pool to identify causal drivers of emigration preferences. Logit estimation of emigration preferences indicates that economics and politics matters. Anti-immigrant rhetoric, “Trumpian policies,” and the US deter high-skilled UK potential emigrants; economic growth, education, and social benefits attract them. Politics and social benefits are more important for those on the political left, while economics and education weigh more heavily for those on the right. What will attract the highly skilled migrants from a post-Brexit UK? [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5299]
69.5123 DUFRESNE, Yannick; TESSIER, Charles; MONTIGNY, Eric —
The resurgence of separatist movements in Scotland and Catalonia illuminate the ebb and flow of such movements over time. The catalysts of separatism in post-industrial democracies are largely treated as circumstantial, but intergenerational data on attitudes towards independence might assist the development of a general theory of support for separatism. This replace draws on the case of Quebec, leveraging a half-century worth of public opinion data to investigate intergenerational shifts in attitudes towards separatism. Historical data from the Canadian Election Study (CES 1968-2011) allow us to test the relationship between attitudes towards independence among youth in Quebec and general levels of support for separatism. [R, abr.]
69.5124 DUNCOMBE, Constance —
Social media have an increasingly important role to play in international politics. An overwhelming proportion of UN member states and individual Ministries of Foreign Affairs have Twitter handles, demonstrating how the speed and accessibility of information through digital tools is a necessary part of conventional diplomatic strategies. Yet the centrality of Twitter to diplomacy, and to digital diplomacy more specifically, is often overlooked. Tweets and images posted on Twitter can provoke strong online and offline reactions, potentially inciting or exacerbating political crises. Paying greater attention to these complex dynamics would provide insight into the political consequences of state exploitations of social media platforms. Doing so is especially important given the rise of digital disinformation campaigns, which digital diplomacy strategies must now confront. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5125 ECONOMOU, Athina; KOLLIAS, Christos —
This article examines whether terrorist attacks affect citizens' policy preferences by focusing on attitudes toward EU security and defense policy as recorded by the 2016 Eurobarometer survey. The survey was conducted a few months after the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris. Both the January and November terrorist incidents captured worldwide attention, claimed many lives, and caused France to declare a state of emergency. To identify the presence or absence of a statistically traceable and significant effect on security policy preferences, expressed by French citizens in the Eurobarometer survey, we compare and contrast the responses from survey participants in an aggregate EU sample and in two other EU member states. In broad terms, our results indicate that the effect of the terrorist attacks was rather weak and short-lived, and affected only a limited number of policy preferences. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5521]
69.5126 EDY, Jill A.; MEIRICK, Patrick C. —
This study documents the fragmentation of the American public's agenda. Updating work by M. McCombs and J.-H. Zhu [“Capacity, diversity, and volatility of the public agenda: trends from 1954-1994”, ibid. 59(4), Winter 1995: 495-525; Abstr. 46.4623], it measures the carrying capacity of the public agenda, the degree of diversity, and the rate of turnover in issues named by Gallup survey respondents asked Gallup's classic question, “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?,” from 1975 through 2014. Assuming the public agenda's capacity to be relatively fixed, scholars have argued that increasing agenda diversity must exert upward pressure on volatility, generating issue competition. This study reveals that the public agenda has continued to diversify, but volatility has changed little. [R, abr.]
69.5127 EMRE ERKOC, Taptuk —
While some take religion as a determining factor of economic performance, others argue that it is the economy that influences religiosity. This paper focuses on religion and economics in the political sphere regarding the case of Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP). It scrutinizes the AKP period, considering three specific pillars: (a) the early years of the AKP in which Western economic policies were implemented as a continuation of the Kemal Dervis period; (b) between 2008 and 2015, when the idea “we can do as well” maintained the center stage; and (c) 2015 and onwards, when the Islamist influence on economic policy became highly apparent, particularly regarding interest rates. This study argues that the AKP changed politically in terms of Islamic influence upon the economic sphere, however this remains at the discursive level for the time being. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5680]
69.5128 EVENO, Patrick —
Premier ou quatrième pouvoir, ou encore contre-pouvoir, le journalisme est mis en question en ce début de XXIe siècle. La multiplication des réseaux d'information et de communication, la mainmise de puissances économique sur les médias, le contournement ou la stigmatisation des journalistes par des politiques, la défiance des publics envers les paroles d'experts, tout se conjugue pour considérer que le journalisme tel qu'on le connaît depuis le XIXe siècle est en passe de disparaître. Qu'en est-il? [R]
69.5129 FELDMANN, Andreas E. —
This article investigates the use of terror in Colombia's civil war by examining the behavior of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). Relying on an extensive database covering 25 years of conflict, the article traces the way in which the FARC and ELN have employed terror as part of their overall insurrectional strategy. I argue that, while ideology plays an important role in inspiring revolutionary terrorism, these groups' terror practices evolved over time and were driven principally by military strategies. Changing conditions in the theater of war, particularly growing competition with paramilitary forces, in turn, influenced these strategies. The article also discusses some interesting differences between the two groups' terror practices. [R]
69.5130 FERREE, Karen; GIBSON, Clark; HOFFMAN, Barak —
Scholars have long argued social diversity, and electoral institutions interactively shape party systems: diversity has little effect on the effective number of parties (ENP) in single member plurality (SMP) systems but increases ENP in proportional ones. We argue instead that where diversity is salient enough to generate demand for parties, it also hinders strategic coordination, preventing SMP rules from reducing the number of parties and producing a correlation between diversity and ENP. In contrast, non-salient forms of diversity have little impact regardless of institutional rules. We test this intuition using data from South Africa's municipal mixed-member system and explore its highly salient racial cleavage and less salient ethnic one. We find racial diversity correlates with ENP in SMP systems while ethnic diversity correlates with ENP in neither SMP nor proportional representation systems. [R, abr.]
69.5131 FILATOV, Georgii A. —
The article addresses the differences in separatist tendencies in Catalonia, the Basque Country and Galicia in the 21st c. Although Madrid granted wide autonomy to the regions after the fall of the dictatorship in 1975, it has not solved the problem of separatism. The most striking examples are Catalonia and the Basque Country. Both regions maintain a distinctive cultural and linguistic identity, have a long history of movements struggling for autonomy. However, statistics show that in the Basque Country separatist sentiment decreased in the 21st century, while in Catalonia the situation was the opposite, leading to a crisis in 2017. To explain these tendencies, two main factors are considered: the unwillingness of Madrid to expand the autonomy, and the impact of the economic crisis. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5244]
69.5132 FINKE, Daniel —
Quotas are the most disputed instrument to promote equal representation of women. Today, political parties in more than 90 democracies apply them. Essentially, gender quotas are a manipulation of the electoral rules. Scholars of legislative politics have created an impressive knowledge of the effect of electoral rules on political behaviour. So far, this literature remains unconnected to the literature on gender quotas. Our study contributes to closing that research gap. [R]
69.5133 FOLEY, Kevin; WALLACE, Jeremy L.; WEISS, Jessica Chen —
What are the consequences of nationalist unrest? This paper utilizes two original datasets, which cover 377 city-level anti-Japanese protests during the 2012 Senkaku/Diaoyu Island crisis and the careers of municipal leaders, to analyze the downstream effects of nationalist unrest at the subnational level. We find both political and economic consequences of China's 2012 protest demonstrations against Japan. Specifically, top Party leaders in cities that saw relatively spontaneous, early protests were less likely to be promoted to higher office, a finding that is consistent with the widely held but rarely tested expectation that social instability is punished in the Chinese Communist Party's cadre evaluation system. [R, abr.]
69.5134 FROIO, Caterina —
In its extreme, radical, and populist forms, the far right is probably the most studied political family in political science and political sociology. The article offers a state of the art of existing comparative research on this theme, structured around three questions: what are the main issues addressed? What case studies, data, and methods are used? What avenues for future research are desirable in a field of study that is already so rich? The article reviews the developments in recent comparative studies in French and English languages on parties of the Radical right. I show that progressively, researchers have expanded the issues and cases of interest. However, since the 1990s, the theoretical and methodological innovation remain rather modest, especially when it comes to explaining their electoral performances. [R, abr.]
69.5135 GAMPER SACHSE, Daniel —
Most of the Spanish media have portrayed Catalan independentism as nationalism and populism. This article argues that this political and social mobilization does not fit into the usual definitions of populism as anti-elitist, anti-liberal and anti-pluralistic movement. Catalan independentism is here interpreted by stressing its democratic features, namely as a form of democratic populism: horizontally organized, and critical of procedural safeguards and counter-majoritarian powers. The popular organization of the referendum on 1 October 2017 and the vigorous democratic experience by almost half of the population of Catalonia allow for a characterization of this populism as a hybrid phenomenon that includes bottom-up and top-down dynamics, thereby contrasting with the usual leader-centered understanding of populism. [R]
69.5136 GARCÍA-GUADILLA, María Pilar; MALLEN, Ana —
This article analyzes the emergence and consolidation of political polarization in Venezuela during the so-called Bolivarian Revolution, led by Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro from 1999 to 2018. We also examine the conditions under which polarization in Venezuela became pernicious, and contributed to erosion of democracy. Given the underlying class cleavages that were associated with pro- and anti-Chavista identities, we argue that the central dimension of polarization began with a political-ideological rift around competing concepts of democracy — participatory and representative, the rights that each vision privileged (individual civil and political rights vs. collective social and economic rights), and the interpretation of participatory democracy as a complement or substitute for representative democracy. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5137 GEORGIADOU, Vasiliki —
The onset of the economic crisis and the austerity measures outlined in the EU/IMF bailout were followed by a series of large-scale protests in Greece. The continuous mobilization, for several weeks, of the Indignant Citizens was a distinct part of the overall events during this period. We focus on the mass mobilization of protesters who occupied Syntagma Square in May-June 2011. For our analysis, we conducted semistructured interviews with the protesters involved in the mobilization. Focusing on their political attitudes, the article approaches their perspectives on democracy. Our results suggest that the Indignants' acceptance of an idealized form of democracy on the one hand, and the distrust of parliamentary practices, actors, and performance on the other, signify a demand for a new politics beyond the framework of representative democracy. [R, abr.]
69.5138 GHAIS, Suzanne —
This article examines the relationship between inclusion/exclusion of armed groups and the achievement of durable peace, using process tracing in two case studies: the peace process between the government of Chad and the rebel group Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad, and the one between the government of the Philippines and the Moro National Liberation Front. The cases support theoretical arguments that excluded armed actors are more likely to renew armed confrontation after the peace accord. The study further elaborates the causal link: included armed rebels tend to negotiate for private benefits such as government posts and amnesty but also moderate their stances and emerge committed to the agreement; excluded armed actors lack any such commitment and still have unresolved grievances. They are thus more likely to renew armed action against the government. [R] [See Abstr. 69.4899]
69.5139 GIBSON, Nadine S.; SHAW, Daron R. —
We examine the correlation between voters' opinions on relevant issues and vote-choice, as well as where they located Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in the competitive issue space. We are particularly interested in the extent to which anti-politics attitudes, nativist attitudes, and social issue attitudes structured the way voters perceived the candidates. Using principal components analysis of feeling thermometer ratings of presidential candidates in the 2016 general election, we are able to identify two major dimensions structuring voters' perceptions of political figures. Data from national surveys suggest that anti-politics attitudes were prevalent in 2016, but that the major party candidates were only marginally effective at tapping into this sentiment. Relative to other Republican presidential candidates, Trump was more effective in tapping into anti-political feelings prior to the Republican Convention. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5299]
69.5140 GIULIANI, Marco —
Pollsters have been recently accused of delivering poor electoral predictions. We argue that one of the reasons for their failures lies in the difficulty of including an updated deep understanding of electoral behavior. Even if pollsters' predictions are not forecasts produced by models, the set of choices needed to produce their estimates is not indifferent to a theoretical comprehension of electoral dynamics. We exemplify this lack of theory by using an original dataset consisting of 1057 party*poll observations in the case of the last European election. Pollsters failed to account for what we know about second-order elections, thus overestimating government and big parties, which normally obtain poor results in European elections, and underestimating new and Eurosceptic ones, which usually perform well. [R]
69.5141 GLEISS, Marielle Stigum; SAETHER, Elin; FÜRST, Kathinka —
Scholarship on Chinese civil society has produced rich empirical studies, but there have been few attempts to theorize the empirical knowledge acquired. Moreover, the question of how to conceptualize the political agency of civil society in a non-democratic context has received limited systematic attention. We draw on a discursive approach to politics to analyze the political agency of Chinese civil society. Our analysis is based on synthesizing insights gained through three separate research projects. We propose a conceptual framework which focuses on how civil society actors position themselves within a structured political space, how they represent social groups and issues through advocacy, how they care for these groups, and how they engage in processes of identity formation. Taken together, these four modalities constitute a framework for analyzing the different political dimensions of civil society agency. [R]
69.5142 GORSKI, Paul C. —
Social movement scholars have identified activist burnout — when the accumulation of stressors associated with activism become so overwhelming they compromise activists' persistence in their activism — as a threat to movement viability. This phenomenological study on the causes of burnout among racial justice activists in the US was designed to bolster understandings of burnout and inform strategies for sustaining racial justice movements. Thirty racial justice activists who had experienced burnout were interviewed. They described four primary burnout causes: emotional-dispositional causes, structural causes, backlash causes, and in-movement causes. Implications for activist and movement sustainability are discussed. [R]
69.5143 GRANT, Zack P.; TILLEY, James —
Comparative political science has largely ignored the marked cross-national variation in Green party electoral performance. This article uses a unique aggregate dataset of 347 parliamentary elections from 32 countries over the course of 45 years to test competing theories about the causes of Green party success. The findings show that voter demand, institutions and mainstream party strategy all affect the Green vote. Green parties do well in societies with post-materialist conflicts caused by high levels of wealth or the presence of a tangible environmental dispute. The article also shows that regional decentralization helps Green parties, but electoral systems have little effect on their vote share. Most importantly, it demonstrates that the impact of mainstream party strategy on Green electoral strength is dependent on the age of the Green party. [R, abr.]
69.5144 GRASSO, Maria Teresa, et al. —
While most previous studies have tended to propose explanations for disengagement linked to specific repertoires of political action, we propose a unified theory based on the different socialization experiences of subsequent generations. We test this theory using a new dataset of collated waves of the British Social Attitudes Survey and by applying age-period-cohort models for repeated cross-sectional data and generalized additive models to identify generational effects. We show that generational effects underlie the participatory decline across repertoires. Consistent with our expectations, the results reveal that the generation of “Thatcher's Children” are much less likely to engage in a range of repertoires of political action than “Wilson/Callaghan's Children”, who came of age in the more politicized 1960s and 1970s. Significantly, the “Blair's Babies” generation is the least politically engaged of all. [R, abr.]
69.5145 GRIMMER, Martin; GRUBE, Dennis C. —
Why are voters in advanced democracies turning away from established mass parties to take their electoral chances elsewhere? This article draws on concepts from marketing scholarship, specifically branding and brand equity, to apply a ‘consumer' lens that assesses the major parties in Australia as failing ‘brands' being left behind by disillusioned voters. An initial sample of 200 voters were asked what words or phrases came to mind when they thought of each of four Australian federal political parties. Data revealed distinct brand associations for each party and the extent of penetration and brand equity across subgroups of voters. We find that Australian mass parties are caught in a downward spiral of negative brand associations and low brand penetration, leading to voter dissatisfaction. [R, abr.]
69.5146 GRIZELJ, Irena —
Previous work has often focused on youth as “peace-builders” and agents of change or threats to peace in the post-accord period, with little emphasis on how young people participate during the negotiation phase. This article assesses youth inclusion and participation in Myanmar's ongoing peace negotiations. The study finds that, while youth have not had formal inclusion avenues in the peace negotiations, there are cohorts of young people who perceive themselves to be legitimate stakeholders in the peace process, who have attempted to gain access to decision-making in the peace negotiations, and have played active roles in supporting the process. It is argued that recognizing youth as key stakeholders in the peace accord will play a vital role in building sustainable peace within Myanmar's nascent democracy. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4899]
69.5147 GUINJOAN, Marc; RICO, Guillem —
In the context of increasingly salient economic disparities between member states, this article tests the novel theoretical claim that perceptions of inequality between EU member states diminish citizens' trust in European institutions. Drawing on system justification theory, we argue that the negative effect of perceived intercountry inequality will be reduced as individuals become more willing to accept social inequality and to reject redistribution. We test these propositions using a survey experiment conducted in Spain (Study 1) and a representative survey in eight EU countries (Study 2). [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5148 GÜNAY, Defne; IŞERI, Emre; ERSOY, Metin —
We study Turkey's media framing of climate change and whether and how it relates to the framings of security in general to acquire in-depth understanding of the role national media plays in securitization of climate change. Along with alternative online media outlet Bianet, mainstream outlets (Sabah, Sözcü, Hürriyet, Milliyet) are analyzed. This article addresses the following main research question: How do the mainstream and alternative media frame climate change in the Turkish context? In order to answer this question, it adopts content analysis to analyze selected frames on climate change-related news utilized in Turkish media. [R, abr.]
69.5149 HADZHIDIMOVA, Lora; STACEY, Aaron —
This study explores the relationship between populism and the national concerns expressed by citizens in the EU. In particular, we seek to determine if a certain type of populism in the countries (right or left) responds to the leading national concerns (cleavages). We examine the national concerns and the type of populism in the EU's Eastern and Western member-states, separately, and then compare them. Results show, first, that right-wing populism in the EU is much more common than left-wing populism, and, second, that the East and the West share to a large extent similar national concerns that are left-wing in nature. We conclude that the predominant type of populism in the EU does not overlap with the type of concerns on a national level. Implications for this tendency are provided. [R]
69.5150 HAFNER-BURTON, Emile M.; McNAMARA, Heidi M. —
Interest groups take an active stance on US human rights policy, with implications for countries around the world. Today, publicly traded companies are responsible for the majority of all lobbying dollars spent on the issue. This article leverages a unique dataset on congressional lobbying between 2007 and 2010 to map and explain variation in corporate lobbying on US human rights-related legislation. We substantiate and explain why large oil, defense, and technology companies have greater representation in terms of dollars spent trying to influence the US approach to managing human rights around the globe than any other lobbying group. Rarely do these companies publicly explain their interests or intentions when lobbying a policy. [R, abr.]
69.5151 HÄGE, Frank M. —
Imperial Germany is a prominent historical case in the study of Western Europe's political development. This article investigates the number and content of political conflict dimensions from the foundation of the modern German state in 1867 to the end of Bismarck's reign as Chancellor in 1890. Methodologically, it applies dimension-reducing statistical methods to a novel data set of content-coded parliamentary roll call votes. The analysis suggests that the emergence of the Catholic Centre Party in 1871 permanently transformed the conflict space from a single liberal-conservative divide to a two-dimensional space that distinguished positions on socioeconomic issues and regime matters, respectively. The fact that positions on redistributive and regime issues were not aligned implies that theories stressing economic inequality as a driver for regime change are of limited applicability. [R, abr.]
69.5152 HANSEN, Isabella; LIM, Darren J. —
There is a recent surge in the use of state-sponsored cyber operations by states against foreign political institutions, including efforts to sway electoral outcomes by influencing voters. Yet cyber statecraft research has focused more on operations designed to yield a direct military advantage or reward, rather than as a subtle tool of influence. We seek to address this gap in the literature, first by conceptualising a typology of state-sponsored operations constituting ‘cyber voter interference' (CVI), second by theorising a causal mechanism through which CVI can influence the cognition and behaviour of voters contingent on specific local conditions within a target state, and third by testing the plausibility of our theoretical model via two case studies of recent elections in the US and France, both of which saw credible accusations of cyber interference by hostile foreign actors. [R, abr.]
69.5153 HARRIS, Rachel; ISA, Aziz —
The official Chinese view of the Uyghur Islamic revival is overwhelmingly dominant. Because of the extraordinary measures taken to shield from international view the actual developments in the region and to silence Uyghur voices, we lack a clear sense of what it is to be a Muslim in contemporary Xinjiang. This article explores debates within Uyghur society about faith, politics and identity as they are revealed through the social media platform WeChat. It aims to disrupt the dominant narratives and enable new understandings of the changing patterns of religiosity and violence in the region. It focuses on the use of social media to access affective experiences of religion, projects of self-fashioning. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5661]
69.5154 HARYANTO; SUKMAJATI, Mada; LAY, Cornelis —
This article examines electoral strategies used by candidates in regional elections in new Indonesian jurisdictions. It uses the 2017 regional election in Maybrat, West Papua as a case study. It explores the candidates' strategies and motivations in context, as well as their results. Research indicates that similar election strategies were used by candidates, such as exploiting elements of territory, class, and kinship. However, their emphases differed: the losing candidate had positioned class solidarity centrally in their campaigns, while the victorious candidate had emphasized spatial solidarity. This research also observed the exploitation of latent tensions over the location of the regional capital in the new jurisdiction of Maybrat, where the creation of new resources, services, and public offices intensified longstanding contestations. [R, abr.]
69.5155 HELLMÜLLER, Sara —
This article provides an analytical framework to understand how participation of armed actors in peace negotiations influences local violence. It argues that the link between violence and exclusion or inclusion of armed actors is often indirect and depends on armed actors' underlying motivations to be included and their corresponding strategies. Based on an analysis of the Congolese peace process from 1999 to 2003, the article assesses how the mandate of the peace process influenced armed groups' motivations to be included. It then analyzes the strategies that armed actors used to be included and examines their impact on local violence. Thereby, it allows for a more nuanced understanding of how participation of armed actors in a mediation process influences prospects for peace. [R] [See Abstr. 69.4899]
69.5156 HENSENGERTH, Oliver; LU Yiyi —
Chinese state reforms have resulted in both horizontal and vertical diffusion of actors in policymaking and policy implementation, leading to the creation of new collaborative institutions between government and non-government actors. At the non-governmental level, this has inter alia enabled the development of NGOs and the passage of a raft of legislation for public participation and access to information. However, the political and legal constraints imposed by the authoritarian system have meant that private citizens still find it hard to make their voice heard. Public participation legislation has suffered from an implementation gap, leading to the proliferation of environmental protests across China. For private citizens, therefore, protest outside of the formal-legal channels is a key tool to influence the policy process and demand public participation and better government accountability. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5635]
69.5157 HOLLAND, Alisha C.; INCIO, José —
Why do some citizens remove the same politicians that they elected from office? This article examines the use of recall referenda, an increasingly prevalent process in which citizens organize a vote to remove politicians from office before they complete their terms. Although celebrated as a tool to improve electoral accountability, we argue that recall referenda are organized to pursue political vendettas. We test this claim using an original data set on the different stages leading to subnational recalls in Peru. Recalls are initiated more often when politicians lose by narrow vote margins and when women hold office. Once put to a vote, citizens do use office performance to decide whether to retain their politicians. Losing politicians organized fewer recall referenda following an institutional reform that allowed politicians to name their successors. [R, abr.]
69.5158 HORÁKOVÁ, Hana —
One of the key challenges of post-apartheid South Africa has been the need to create a South African “nation”. The efforts of the leading African National Congress started with Nelson Mandela's reconciliatory discourse of a “rainbow nation,” via Thabo Mbeki's concept of the African Renaissance, to the current stream of racial nationalism articulated as “Africanization.” The article examines the dilemma which the ANC as the major custodian of nation-building has been facing since the 1990s: how to reach a balance between a civic nationalism based on cosmopolitan values and the need to redress the legacy of apartheid and persisting racial inequalities. It is argued that the current culturalist discourse of Africanization is not only contentious but also dangerous for the cohesion of the fragile democratic society of post-apartheid South Africa. [R]
69.5159 HORST, Patrick —
The first midterm elections of Donald Trump led to an ideological balancing against the president. The Democrats won 40 seats and the majority in the House of Representatives. They also won seven governorships and six legislative chambers from Republicans in state elections around the country — although Republicans still control more governors mansions, legislatures, and states than Democrats. Voter turnout reached 50 percent, a new high for midterm elections, and a record 5.8 billion dollars were spent during the election season. Both benefitted Democrats. The election result can be interpreted as a referendum against a very unpopular president who abstained from exploiting the good economic situation to his advantage. Trump preferred to stoke up fears — of immigrants and China — and to mobilize his conservative electoral base. This strategy helped him win the Senate. [R, abr.]
69.5160 HRISTOVA, Kristina; CHERESHEVA, Maria —
Since joining the EU in 2007, Bulgaria has been undergoing a paradoxical process: instead of progressing in the field of freedom of expression the country has been witnessing a steady decline. The figures are staggering — resulting in a position in 2018 that is not only lower than all other EU member states, but also all Western Balkan countries. Why has the media situation worsened during the years following the accession of Bulgaria to the EU? One possible explanation for Bulgaria's drastic drop in terms of press freedom is the corrupting role of the EU's structural and cohesion funds for media independence in the country. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5665]
69.5161 HÜBSCHER, Evelyne —
This paper examines two crucial questions related to coalition politics and representative democracies. How do parties' ideological positions translate into cabinet policy positions? And how does the relative impact of parties vary over the legislative term. Using an original dataset of 74 social and budgetary laws from nine German coalition governments, the paper shows that, on average, government parties influence cabinet policy position according to their relative strength. However, the relative impact of coalition parties varies significantly during the term. At the beginning of the term in office, the policy positions of the cabinet are representative of the overall cabinet ideology, but the policy positions strongly move towards the position of the party representing the median when the next election approaches. [R]
69.5162 HUNDT, David; KIM Sooyoung —
This article analyzes elite opinion in South Korea about China's “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) in order to better understand how this Asia-Pacific middle power and US ally is approaching the initiative. Through a close analysis of the writing of foreign-policy elites in South Korea, the study finds that OBOR was generally depicted as significant to China's re-emergence in regional and global affairs, but not as wholly detrimental to South Korean interests. Elites did not speak with one voice, but presented the government with a comparatively sanguine view of OBOR. The debate created unlikely alliances between left- and right-leaning elites about some aspects of the initiative, but it also revealed tensions among conservative and centrist elites. In seeking to demonstrate their relevance to policymakers, however, elites inadvertently underlined their growing distance from the general public. [R]
69.5163 IBRAHIM, Ibrahim Yahaya —
The recent rise of jihadist movements in West Africa has puzzled many observers. The easy spread of the jihadist ideology, the jihadist movements success in massively recruiting followers among the local population as well as their ability to conquer territories are unprecedented in the region's contemporary history. This report attempts to shade light on the factors and processes that contribute to the emergence of these movements. It argues that the phenomenon of jihadist insurgencies in West Africa emerge as a result of a series of processes at the global, local, and individual level. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5615]
69.5164 IMPERATORE, Paola —
Over the last decades, several local populations throughout Italy have started to mobilize against the use of land to build infrastructure which is defined by its promoters as crucial to competitiveness in the global market. Local movements have created oppositional NOPE (Not On the Planet Earth) or NIABY (Not In Anyone's Back Yard) discourse to underline the local-global dialectic oriented toward broadly questioning the effects of globalization. Using frame-analysis, this paper examines nine Italian LULU campaigns in order to investigate the presence of discursive strategies able to transcend the local dimension, the ability of the challengers to develop and spread a common key of interpretation to the different conflicts and, finally, the existence of recurring and successful frames despite the local peculiarities. [R, abr.]
69.5165 INKINEN, Saara; SAARI, Juhani —
Why do well-educated citizens show high turnout in elections? Despite broad scholarly agreement that educational attainment predicts electoral participation, there is little consensus about which aspects of higher education account for this positive association. The article first discuss two types of factors that prior research has suggested to connect higher education to voting: participation-enhancing benefits; and the type of education. Using a unique, nationally representative survey of the 2012 cohort of Finnish undergraduates, the relative importance of and relationships between these competing factors in explaining the students' intended voting in the 2014 European Parliament election are tested. It is found that turnout is positively associated with the student's sense of political efficacy, which also mediates between an open classroom environment and turnout. [R, abr.]
69.5166 IWUOHA, Victor Chidubem —
Applications of Information and Communications Technology (ICT)-driven innovations are profound in the electoral cycle. Among them, biometric technology is currently sweeping across developing countries. It is, however, only poorly adopted among rural voters. Does the use of biometric technology in the conduct of elections reconstruct rural voters' behavior, amid prevailing social challenges? The links between these realities and their consequences are currently less understood, and lacking in supporting literature. I argue that the public perception of biometric technology, the availability of proper infrastructure, and the distance between polling stations and the dwellings of rural voters all affect the latter's level of adoption of biometric technology. These interactions combine to produce specific modalities that shape voting behavior and general political culture. I elicit primary data from voters in Nigeria's remote villages. [R, abr.]
69.5167 JANKOWSKI, Michael; MARCINKIEWICZ, Kamil —
Research on the impact of gender quotas in open-list proportional representation systems has described quotas as ineffective or even paradoxical. While some authors argue that gender quotas without a placement mandate will be essentially ineffective since most women will be nomi-nated to unpromising positions, others suppose that women will be disadvantaged by gender quotas because the increase in the number of female candidates will decrease the average number of preferential votes cast for women. We reexamine the evidence for these claims by analyzing the case of Poland. We demonstrate that the gender quota introduced there in 2011 increased the number of women placed at promising ballot positions and had very little impact on the number of preferential votes cast for women. [R, abr.]
69.5168 JANKOWSKI, Michael; SCHNEIDER, Sebastian H.; TEPE, Markus —
In this research note, candidate survey data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) is used to analyze positional shifts of German Bundestag parties between 2013 and 2017. Two developments make Germany a particularly interesting case: (1) the liberal but also controversial policies of the Merkel cabinet during the European refugee crisis and (2) the change of leadership within the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Applying scaling techniques to locate candidates of both elections in the same two-dimensional policy space, the analysis demonstrates that in 2017 the AfD took a distinct radical right position in the party system of Germany. Moreover, the study finds that almost all parties moved to the right on the cultural left-right dimension in 2017, whereas for the economic left-right dimension this has not been the case. [R, abr.]
69.5169 JEWETT, Georgia —
In [civil] conflicts, civilians are increasingly targeted and weaponized. Yet, they also have a larger role to play in the peacemaking process. This stems from the fact that local civil society organizations (CSO) assume new responsibilities vis-à-vis their communities as the state disintegrates. They often became the coordinators and providers of basic security and services. Unsurprisingly, CSO leaders often emerge as the only credible and authoritative actors in this complex environment, trusted by both the disputing parties and the affected communities. This article argues that CSOs are necessary to any international mediation process; however, they must be leveraged in conjunction with conventional third party mediator resources (that is, financial, technical and military assistance) to maximize the potential of an enduring peace deal. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4899]
69.5170 JOHNSTON, Ron; PATTIE, Charles; HARTMAN, Todd K. —
Some scholars suggest that voters are aware of which party is likely to win in their local constituency at British general elections. That argument is evaluated here using as a case study the 2015 and 2017 general elections in Scotland: at the first, the SNP's vote-share more than dou-bled, and it won 56 of the country's 59 seats; at the second, its vote-share fell by about a third, and it lost 21 of those 56 seats. Analysis of British Election Survey data collected before and during the campaigns preceding those elections shows that most respondents were aware of the SNP's surge in 2015 and expected their victory in every constituency. In 2017, most voters were aware which of the SNP's three competitors was the biggest threat in each constituency; yet, voters still (incorrectly) anticipated a local SNP victory. [R, abr.]
69.5171 JONES, Michael A.; McCUNE, David; WILSON, Jennifer —
To award delegates in their presidential primary elections, the US Democratic Party uses Hamilton's method of apportionment after eliminating any candidates (and their votes) that receive less than 15% of the total votes cast. We illustrate how a remaining candidate may have his or her delegate total decline as a result of other candidates being eliminated; this leads to a new elimination paradox. We relate that paradox to the new states, no show, and population paradoxes and show that divisor methods are not susceptible to the elimination paradox. We conclude with instances in which the elimination paradox may occur in other contexts, including parliamentary systems. [R]
69.5172 JOVANOVIĆ, Srđan Mladenov —
The wars of Yugoslav secession produced a wide variety of rampant forms of nationalism throughout former Yugoslavia. Since 5 October 2000, right-wingers have somewhat softened their line in public discourse and lost some of their popular appeal, but strong nationalist tendencies have remained, taking their place in Serbia's social and political discourses. These tendencies have been concentrated around certain extreme right-wing groups, chief among them Dveri srpske, which has been active since the early 1990s. After organizing itself politically, this movement has refurbished its image and discourse, and, in the April 2016 elections, has even succeeded in entering parliament. Here, the author analyzes Dveri's agenda and key convictions: anti-Semitism, an anti-EU stance, support for Putin's Russia, clericalism, and homophobia. He also reviews Dveri's change of image and discourse over time. [R, abr.]
69.5173 JUST, Aida —
This article examines how political regimes in migrants' origin countries influence their party identification in adopted homeland. I posit that immigrants are more likely to acquire partisanship in their host country if they came from a nonparty autocracy as opposed to a party-based autocracy or democracy. Moreover, among partisans, immigrants are less likely to identify with a left-wing party if they came from a communist regime. Finally, these effects are particularly pronounced among foreign-born individuals from highly authoritarian regimes. The analyses using Geddes, Wright, and Frantz Autocratic Regimes data along with individual-level data from the European Social Survey (ESS) 2002-2017 in 19 established democracies confirm these expectations. These findings have important implications for debates on immigrant political integration, party politics, and the prospects of electoral stability in contemporary democracies. [R]
69.5174 KALTENTHALER, Karl; SILVERMAN, Daniel; DAGHER, Munqith —
This article explores the amount and sources of support for the Islamic State among Iraqis. We argue that, in addition to shared identity and ideology, a neglected factor in debates about support for Islamist militancy is the messaging and information that individuals receive about a given group. We test these arguments using regression analysis on public opinion data collected in Iraq in April 2015. The analyses largely support our contentions, showing that exposure to news coverage of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant substantially reduces support for the group, even among alienated Sunnis or ideological Islamists. [R]
69.5175 KAPOUTSIS, Ilias; VOLKEMA, Roger —
This paper examines the negotiation tactics employed by Donald Trump in his 2016 presidential campaign. Drawing on data from multiple sources (interviews, debates, articles, books), our analysis begins with a brief overview of Trump's personality and philosophy, which offers a basis for understanding his general negotiating approach. We then highlight six competitive tactics and four principles of persuasion that Trump employs, with specific examples of how he used them during the campaign with his primary negotiating counterparts — the other candidates, the Republican Party, the press corps, and the American electorate. Finally, we discuss some of the implications of his negotiating approach and preferred tactics in dealing with domestic and international issues as president of the US. [R]
69.5176 KASTNER, Lisa —
This article examines the role of non-financial interest groups in EU financial regulatory decision-making. I examine the extent to which non-financial groups are able to have their preferences met in the making of three different consumer policies: the Mortgage Credit Directive (MCD), stricter regulations of retail investment products (PRIPs/KID) and the reform of EU level supervisory structures. By employing a process-tracing approach based on qualitative interviews to analyze political responses to the 2008 financial crisis, the article demonstrates that newly mobilized groups could translate key advocacy goals into policy by deploying counter-expertise and cooperating with policymakers in some cases but not in others. [R, abr.]
69.5177 KASUYA, Yuko; SAWASDEE, Siripan Nogsuan —
Dominant political parties have been the subject of study since the 1950s. As they have emerged both in democracies and non-democracies, they have become an intriguing research theme for scholars who study politics in a variety of world regions. This introductory note to the special issue on the transformation of dominant parties in Asia first reviews how “dominant parties” are defined by scholars who study this subject. Then, it turns to a discussion of the existing research on dominant parties and analyzes how scholars have examined the question of how they emerge and are sustained. Lastly, the articles included in this special issue are introduced. [R] [Introduction to a special issue of the same title. See also Abstr. 69.5073, 5229, 5257, 5263, 5278, 5292]
69.5178 KATES, Sean; TUCKER, Joshua A. —
Macro-level studies have consistently found a connection between economic crises and support for far-right parties. However, research on the micro foundations for this electoral support has generally found little or no correlation between an individual's economic environment and far-right voting. We test one possible explanation for this seeming paradox, namely, that determinants of far-right identification differ across time and particularly in times of crisis. Utilizing traditional representative data from Eurobarometer surveys in a manner that strips away confounding issues generally found in the extant literature, we directly test whether individuals concerned about their personal economic situation, or that of their country, are more likely to identify with far-right ideological beliefs during economic crises. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5299]
69.5179 KAWALEROWICZ, Juta —
Some regions of the UK present more fertile grounds for consecutive incarnations of extreme right parties than others. In a study by Goodwin, et al., the authors found evidence of the legacy effect, where an earlier cycle of activism by the National Front (NF), an extreme right political party active in the 1970s, emerged as a strong and significant predictor of membership in the British National Party (BNP) three decades later. While their study speaks to the supply-side arguments for extreme right success (organizational continuity and local cultural traditions in particular), here we examine whether a similar legacy effect can be observed with respect to demand for extreme right politics. As we are going to show there is some overlap between the share of votes cast for the NF and the BNP, yet there are a number of constituencies that do not adhere to this pattern. [R, abr.]
69.5180 KAZUN, Anastasia D.; KAZUN, Anton P. —
This article provides the first systematic analysis of the Russian media coverage of Trump's activities during the electoral campaign and within first seven months of his presidential term. We conduct a quantitative analysis of the publications about Donald Trump in 500 Russian magazines and 250 largest federal newspapers. The database “Medialogy” served as a source of data for sentiment analysis of news reports about the American president. We conclude that the image of Trump was not unambiguously positive, as some foreign studies have claimed. Based on the analysis of network agendas in the Russian federal press, it can be concluded that Trump was portrayed by the Russian media not as Russia's favorite candidate for president, but as Hillary Clinton's opponent and a critic of US recent policies. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5567]
69.5181 KERNELL, Georgia; MULLINIX, Kevin J. —
Party identification may shape interpretations of election integrity and vote counting. We use a nationally representative survey experiment to not only test this expectation but, more importantly, to assess the broader political conditions that accentuate or attenuate partisanship's influence. Consistent with hypotheses, partisans' views of election results are significantly moderated by whether their party won or lost. However, we also find that messages from a nonpartisan advisory commission play an important role in shaping beliefs. In addition, we ask if Independents have a perceptual screen — not unlike a partisan bias — of their own. The findings have implications for political communication, electoral legitimacy, and citizen competence. [R]
69.5182 KJAER, Ulrik —
It is often assumed that women's descriptive representation is higher at the local level than at the state or federal level. However, recent studies challenge this perceived pattern. Therefore, several alternative patterns of inter-level gender gaps in female representation across political levels are systematically introduced. Zooming in on the state-local gender gap, a number of explanations as to why such a gender gap can emerge are hypothesized. And the case of the US is used to illustrate how women sometimes fare relatively better at state than local election. [R]
69.5183 KLEIN, Graig R.; TOKDEMIR, Efe —
Domestic political use of force is a strategy for political leaders to divert the public's attention away from economic instability and rebuild political capital. But, diversionary incentives are not the only motivation; the targeted vulnerable minority's capabilities are important. We analyze how the combination of diversionary incentive and out-group mobilization capabilities influences leaders' decision-calculus. Embattled leaders make strategic decisions about both the target and the adequate severity of force to accomplish diversion without risking conflict escalation. We empirically test the resulting hypotheses using the Minorities at Risk dataset from 1998 to 2003 and find support for our expectations. Incentive alone does not determine domestic political use of force; the same incentive produces variance in the severity of force dependent on the targeted out-group's mobilization capability. [R, abr.]
69.5184 KLINGENSMITH, J. Zachary —
Researchers have attempted to show that pork-barrel spending increases the likelihood of an incumbent being reelected but empirical evidence has been hard to find. I hypothesize that pork-barrel spending does not directly increase the likelihood of reelection; instead, pork-barrel spending can be used to increase fundraising and the additional campaign funds are then used to increase the likelihood of being reelected. I find that a $10 million increase in pork-barrel spending will lead to a 0.10% increase in the share of the vote in an election. While this may not seem like a major advantage to some, several elections over the past few years have been decided by < 1%. Therefore, legislators in tightly contested races may be able to use pork-barrel spending to gain some degree of separation from their challenger. [R, abr.]
69.5185 KLUCZEWSKA, Karolina; KORNEEV, Oleg —
This article traces the different origins, development, agency and political stances of various Tajik emigrant communities that emerged after the break-up of the Soviet Union, mainly in Russia, but also beyond the post-Soviet space. It argues that factors such as time and type of arrival, region of origin, socioeconomic status in the host society, host and home country policies, all impact on interactions within and across these emigrant populations, as well as on their engagement with the homeland. The article critically examines manifestations of sociopolitical activism within the Tajik emigrant community complex and points at different forms and degrees of mobilization. It also shows the complexity of answers to emigrants' activities by the Tajik government, based on a “perceived utility” of different emigrant communities. [R] [First article of a special issue on Enjeux politiques des migrations post-soviétiques (Politics in post-Soviet migration)”, edited and introduced by Andy BYFORD and Olga BRONNIKOVA, “Transnational exopolities: politics in post-Soviet migration”, pp. 5-25. See also Abstr. 69.5115, 5215, 5288]
69.5186 KMEC, Vladimir; GANIEL, Gladys —
This article uses a comparative approach to analyze the strengths and limitations of the inclusion of religious actors in peace and transition processes. It compares the theoretical frameworks of J. Bercovitch and A. Kadayifci-Orellana, and J. D. Brewer, demonstrating how the first helps us understand the strengths of religious actors, while the second sheds more light on their limitations. An analysis of the involvement of religious actors in the peace processes in Northern Ireland and Bosnia and Herzegovina supports the argument that religious actors are more likely to contribute to peace when they are excluded from Track One negotiations and are active in other modalities of participation: in wider social peace processes at national or grassroots levels. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4899]
69.5187 KOEHLER, Christina; WEBER, Mathias; QUIRIN, Oliver —
The Euro-crisis substantially diminished citizens' support for the European integration. Therefore, we analyze the independent effects of both the depiction of the Euro-crisis in national news media and macroeconomic contexts on citizens' support for a deeper integration. Based on a combination of Eurobarometer data, results from a content-analysis, and data on the economic performance of citizens' home regions, we show that presenting the EU as a victim impedes citizens' supportive attitudes concerning the European integration, whereas depicting the EU as responsible for solving the crisis has a strengthening effect. Additionally, sharp economic developments in citizens' home regions also have significant effects on their pro-integration attitudes, suggesting a differential influence of close and remote economic indicators. [R]
69.5188 KOEV, Dan —
Why do some ethnic minority groups in Europe form ethnic minority parties (EMPs), while others work within established, mainstream parties? I argue that an ethnic minority group's historical background influences its political engagement strategies. I propose that native groups (those that inhabited the territory of the modern-day state in which they reside prior to that state's establishment), groups with territorial attachment (historical concentration in particular regions of the state) and groups with historical experiences of autonomy are more likely to form successful parties. Groups perceiving themselves as native to their state and that have enjoyed autonomy are more likely to feel entitled to the unique form of representation provided by an EMP. I test my theoretical expectations on an original data set of elections in European states in the period 1990 to 2012. [R, abr.]
69.5189 KONGKIRATI, Prajak —
Thailand fits the pattern of pernicious polarized politics identified in this volume, where a previously excluded group successfully gains political power through the ballot box, governs unilaterally to pursue radical reforms, and produces a backlash from the traditional power elites. In Thailand, elite conflict has been a major part of the story, but this article argues that political polarization there cannot be merely understood as “elite-driven”: conflict among the elites and the masses, and the interaction between them, produced polarized and unstable politics. Violent struggle is caused by class structure and regional, urban-rural disparities; elite struggle activates the existing social cleavages; and ideological framing deepens the polarization. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5190 KOSTELKA, Filip; BLAIS, André; GIDENGIL, Elisabeth —
According to conventional wisdom, the traditional gender gap in voting has disappeared or even reversed in most established democracies. Drawing on the existing literature on differences between the sexes in political engagement and on pioneering voter turnout theories, this article questions the conventional assumption and hypothesizes that women still participate at a lower rate in less important elections. It systematically tests this hypothesis by exploring the impact of gender on voter turnout in different electoral arenas. The empirical analyses of two cross-national datasets (Making Electoral Democracy Work and the European Election Study) demonstrate that although there is generally no gender gap in first-order elections, women tend to vote less than men in second-order contests. [R, abr.]
69.5191 LACY, Dean, et al. —
Tests of theories of the electoral origins of divided government hinge on the proper measurement of voter preferences for divided government. Deriving preferences for divided government from voters' ideological positions or responses to the standard American National Election Studies question inflates estimates of the proportion of people who prefer divided government. We present two alternative survey measures of preferences for divided government and evaluate the measures across multiple surveys. We find that the percentage of voters who prefer divided government is smaller than previous studies suggest. Voters who prefer divided government according to the new measures are significantly more likely than other voters to vote in ways that create divided government in both presidential year and midterm congressional elections. [R]
69.5192 LAGO, Ignacio —
In this research note, I revisit the conventional wisdom about when the psychological effect of electoral systems is observed. I rely on data from the first presidential and legislative elections in 45 third- and fourth-wave presidential and semi-presidential regimes to show that the psychological effect of electoral systems manifests itself in the first election. The effective number of legislative parties is significantly higher than the effective number of presidential candidates in the first election when the electoral system in legislative elections is more permissive than in presidential elections. [R]
69.5193 LAMPAS, Nikolaos —
Since 2013, Greece, along with the rest of Europe, has experienced a rapid increase in refugee flows. The sudden influx of refugees has had a negative impact on the perception of Greek society regarding their potential threat. According to a 2016 survey, 55 percent of Greeks believe that the influx of refugee flows can increase the likelihood of terrorist attacks. Furthermore, 65 percent of Greeks have a negative review of Muslims. Because Greece has not been the victim of Muslim terrorist attacks and historically has had strong ties with the Arab world, these perceptions represent a puzzle. Adopting a qualitative methodological approach, this essay analyzes the causes of negative Greek attitudes toward refugees. It finds that the negative perceptions among Greek society stem from two factors: the perceived negative economic impact and the perceived cultural impact of refugees. [R]
69.5194 LE BRAS, Hervé —
Qu'ont en commun le “gilets jaunes” et le Rassemblement national (RN)? La voiture! Ce mouvement [en France] rappelle en effet le rôle de la mobilité physique dans les changements de la sociabilité et dans ses crises: il le signifie notamment en stationnant sur les ronds-points. [R]
69.5195 LeBAS, Adrienne; MUNEMO, Ngonidzashe —
How do elites play a role in crafting polarization? And what effects do elite-led conflicts have on democracy and mass politics? To examine these questions, we compare two separate episodes of party-based polarization in Zimbabwe, from 1980 to 1987 and from 2000 to 2008. Each of these moments of polarization ended in an elite power-sharing settlement, but a comparison of the two moments yields insights about both the causes of polarization and its effects. We find that the episodes of polarization were rooted in elite instrumentalization of conflict. They differed, however, in the extent to which they activated foundational myths and built larger master cleavages. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5196 LEE Yunsoo; SCHACHTER, Hindy Lauer —
Theories of deliberative and stealth democracy offer different predictions on the relationship between trust in government and citizen participation. To help resolve the contradictory predictions, this study used the World Values Survey to examine the influence of trust in government on citizen participation. Regression analyses yielded mixed results. As deliberative democracy theory predicts, the findings showed that people who trust governmental institutions are more likely to vote and sign a petition. However, the data provided limited support for stealth democracy in that trust in government negatively affects the frequency of attending a demonstration. [R]
69.5197 LEVIN, Dov H. —
Recent studies indicate that partisan electoral interventions, a situation where a foreign power tries to determine the election results in another country, can have significant effects on the election results in the targeted country as well as other important influences. Nevertheless, research on this topic has been hindered by a lack of systematic data of electoral interventions. I introduce the Partisan Electoral Intervention by the Great Powers dataset (PEIG), which provides data on all such interventions by the US and the USSR/Russia between 1946 and 2000. After describing the dataset construction process, I note some interesting patterns in the data. I then describe some applications of PEIG for research on electoral interventions in particular and for peace research in general. [R, abr.]
69.5198 LIPMAN, Maria —
At first sight, Russia has a diverse media landscape. The television market has become a huge business. However, there is certainly no multiplicity of opinions. The media are controlled by the Kremlin. Its tools are no longer censorship and force, but the co-optation of the media owners, the most important of whom are closed associates of Vladimir Putin. The television channels have become propaganda tools and a means for sedating the general public. The print media have become entirely irrelevant when it comes to forming public opinion and the political decision-making process. In the consolidated, authoritarian system, there is no longer any “fourth power”. The media have lost their function as watchdog. However, islands of serious, independent and high-quality journalism still survive. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5638]
69.5199 LOBERA, Josep; SAMPEDRO, Víctor —
We analyze the evolution of electoral information flows in Spain in the digital environment. Three post-electoral surveys (2008, 2011 and 2015) among internet users (N = 4,312) and a series of focus groups enable us to analyze the process of expansion of the Digital Public Sphere (DPS) in Spain. We show that, instead of disintermediation, new intermediations of the electoral information flows appear. The candidacies no longer monopolize the electoral communication; rather, they share spaces in the DPS with personal contacts and civic-social organizations. We observe that, for the first time, in the 2015 elections, the influence exercised by the digital media — particularly social media — exceeded the information received directly from people they know, print media and radio. However, television remained the most influential media during the elections. [R, abr.]
69.5200 LUTZ, Philipp —
How do radical right populist parties influence government policies in their core issue of immigration? This article provides a systematic analysis of the direct and indirect effects of radical right anti-immigration parties on migration policy reforms in 17 West European countries from 1990 to 2014. Insights from migration policy theory serve to explain variations in the migration policy success of the radical right. While previous studies mostly treat migration policy as uniform, it is argued that this approach neglects the distinct political logics of immigration and integration policy. This article reveals significant variations in policy success by policy area. While immigration policies have become more liberal despite the electoral success of the radical right, when the radical right is in government office it enacts more restrictions in integration policies. [R, abr.]
69.5201 MAC GIOLLABHUÍ, Shane —
The African National Congress's eminence is fading in the face of a rising Democratic Alliance. The Democratic Alliance barely survived the passage to majority-rule, but nonetheless escaped the gravitational pull of its historically narrow support base to challenge effectively for power across South Africa. The question is how has it come to present a credible challenge to the ANC, and whether there are broader lessons to draw from this example of a successful opposition in an African democracy. This article presents a theory explaining how the leadership of the Democratic Alliance made an expensive, unorthodox and risky investment in the party's organization that centralized power in order to manufacture a new identity, which transformed the party's capacity to appeal to new voters in South Africa's political system. [R, abr.]
69.5202 MACALUSO, Marilena; MONTEMAGNO, Francesca —
This article considers the institutionalization of the Five-star Movement (M5S) in regional and local councils. It discusses the process of the Movement's institutionalization, analyzing the development of its internal organization; its local platforms and political performance; its institutional repertoire of action, and the several internal and external conflicts between its own rules and the “others”. In particular, the article investigates the changes affecting the M5S after its engagement with the Sicilian regional assembly and Sicilian municipal councils, and the ways in which the specific institutionalization process it underwent was influenced by the complexities of the political and socioeconomic context. It concludes that in studying the local level, it is possible better to understand the nature of its organization and the type of institutionalization it has undergone. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5080]
69.5203 MAHENDRAN, Kesi —
Social psychology has established that oppositional we/they categorization is central to dis/identification with European integration. As Europe faces fresh uncertainties, for example, Brexit, this article reveals the multi-positional features of public-opinion formation. Drawing on meta-representational approaches, it reveals how we/they categorization moves from oppositional forms towards diplomatic non-oppositional forms when citizens speak about the general public in “a public capacity” [J. Dewey, The Public and Its Problems Ohio U. P., 1954, 1st ed. 1927]. Two interview-led studies in England, Ireland, Germany, Scotland, and Sweden (n = 100) brought participants into dialogue with the ideals of European integration. Analysis reveals six dialogical positions on the general public — avant-garde, advocating, homesteading, distancing, segmenting, and progressive. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5204 MAIER, Michaela, et al. —
We investigate the interplay between party communication and media coverage in putting EU issues on the agenda during the 2014 European Parliamentary election campaigns in Austria, Germany and the UK. A temporal pattern analysis focuses on the dynamic perspective of media-parties' interactions based on a quantitative content analysis of (a) the press releases published by parties and (b) the coverage of two leading newspapers per country 12 weeks prior to the elections. We find that most public discourses are started by the media; however, political parties especially in Austria are also quite successful in initiating discussions about EU issues. Interestingly, once an issue has been placed on the agenda, only a few parties take the opportunity of exploiting their issue-ownership in response to the media agenda. [R, abr.]
69.5205 MANNERS, Ian —
This article uses five strands of political psychology to understand European integration, drawing on evidence from the Brexit debate. These strands are individual cognitive psychology, social psychology, social construction, psychoanalysis, and critical political psychology. The article argues that the political psychology of European integration demands an understanding of the interwoven nature of feelings and illusions, the bidirectional interaction of political and psychological processes, and the multiplicity of strands of political psychology in the mutual accommodation and inclusion by European states and peoples. [R, abr.] [First article of a special issue on “The political psychology of European integration: Brexit and beyond”, edited, introduced, pp. 1207-1212, and concluded, pp. 1419-1420, by Tereza CAPELOS and Julie Hassing NIELSEN. See also Abstr. 69.4871, 5067, 5098, 5110, 5113, 5147, 5203, 5228, 5235, 5304, 5342]
69.5206 MARES, Isabela; YOUNG, Lauren —
What explains candidates' choices among different forms of clientelism? When do candidates incentivize voters using positive inducements and when do they choose coercive strategies? This article proposes a new typology of clientelism and tests two families of explanations for why candidates would choose to use state versus non-state brokers, and inducements versus coercion, as private incentives to voters. First, existing theory predicts that political conditions such as incumbency or co-partisanship with the national party should enable the use of public over private brokers and resources. In addition, we conjecture that clientelism carries programmatic signals, such that the choice between inducements and coercion depends on local political conditions. We test our predictions using a post-electoral survey fielded in 2014 in ninety rural Hungarian communities. [R, abr.]
69.5207 MARGULIES, Ben —
The article examines the role of linkage in Viktor Orbán's Hungary, where liberal democratic institutions and practices have eroded since 2010. S. Levitsky and L. Way theorized an important role for these links in the democratization process. However, there has been less examination of how linkages affect the quality of existing democracies. Looking at the case of Hungary, I formulate hypotheses about the role of linkage and maintaining the quality of democracy. I propose that links that may encourage democratization have proven too weak to sustain democratic quality in the face of illiberal, populist challenges. I also argue that new linkage patterns have been forming with tend to degrade democratic quality, specifically between populist parties in Hungary and those in other parts of Europe; and between Hungarian parties and various institutions, including parties and the state, in Russia. [R, abr.]
69.5208 MARTELLI, Carla Giani; ALMEIDA, Carla; LÜCHMANN, Lígia —
Participatory Budgets, Public Policy Conferences and Public Policy Management Councils, among other participatory institutions in Brazil, are altering the configuration of processes that define and elaborate public policies, while incorporating citizens and civil associations into political spaces where different mechanisms of participation and representation converge. These new institutions call for reflections concerning political inclusion and representation that go beyond electoral models. We propose to contribute to these debates by discussing the perceptions of some actors, in particular the leaders of civil society organizations, with regard to conferences' capacity for inclusion, and the meanings that they attribute to representation through conferences. The research findings allow us to identify a broadening of the idea of political inclusion and to highlight some of the tensions raised by demands for representation as presence in conference spaces. [R]
69.5209 MARTINI, Sergio; TORCAL, Mariano —
The implications of intergroup political conflicts for social cooperation are still an understudied topic. We report on two online survey experiments in which we implement multiple trust games to assess the impact of different political conflicts on trust behaviour in two national samples in Spain and Portugal. The results suggest that citizens' social trust is heavily affected by partisanship, favouring in-group party members over out-group party identifiers. This finding is robust in both countries, although the partisanship overall effect seems to be stronger in Spain, which has a more polarized party system. Moreover, the effect involves all parties despite their size and ideology. However, trust among different partisans mirrors interparty positioning. A second study for the Spanish case shows that the partisanship treatment is the one affecting trust the most. [R, abr.]
69.5210 MAYER, Sabrina Jasmin; SCHULTZE, Martin —
Despite being part of the original concept in “The American Voter”, multiple party identifications (MPID) have rarely been analyzed. Based on a 2016 survey that is representative of the German electorate, we investigate the determinants of multiple party attachments in Germany. With the help of a new measurement instrument for MPID, we can show that multiple attachments are a common phenomenon in Germany: Nearly 30% of the respondents and more than half of all party adherents identify themselves with more than one party. Political interest and education as facets of political involvement have a significant effect on the likelihood of holding multiple attachments within ideological camps. Cross-pressures lead to a higher probability of having multiple identifications between political camps. [R]
69.5211 McGREGOR, Susan E. —
In its early days, social media were lauded as a tool that could bring down authoritarian regimes and usher in a new era of democratization. A decade later, these hopes have not only failed to bear fruit, but social media have helped repressive regimes surveil their citizens and manipulate popular opinion for their own strategic gain. Meanwhile, companies like Facebook, Google, and Twitter — each of which have user bases larger than the population of most countries — remain largely unregulated in the US, in part by opportunistically claiming or rejecting the role of “publisher.” But as long as these tech giants are able to elude classification (and therefore regulation), savvy governments will continue to use social media to incite violence, sow chaos, and increase oppression. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5212 MÉNUDIER, Henri —
En bouleversant les rapports de force entre les partis, les élections bavaroises du 4 octobre 2018 donnent une impulsion au renouvellement en profondeur de la vie politique allemande, déjà amorcée depuis une dizaine d'années. L'érosion des partis traditionnels (CDU, CSU, FDP et SPD), porteurs de la démocratie depuis 1945, se poursuit au bénéfice de deux formations récentes mais aux idéologies opposées, les Verts et l'extrême droite sous les traits de l'AfD. Après la perte de sa position hégémonique, la CSU bavaroise va former une coalition avec les Électeurs libres (FW), une autre formation conservatrice de taille plus réduite. L'onde de choc, venue de Munich, pourrait déstabiliser le gouvernement de grande coalition (CDU-CSU et SPD) à Berlin. [R, abr.]
69.5213 MILKOREIT, Manjana —
Over the last two decades, scholars have developed an increasingly sophisticated range of approaches to studying the complex relationship between popular culture and politics. This article addresses three major weakness in this expanding body of research: (1) the analytic focus on the pop-cultural artifact itself rather than political actors and scholars doing the causal-political or pedagogical work, (2) a lack of attention to the question whether different culture consumers' interpretations and experiences of a pop-cultural artifact match those of scholars, and (3) the dearth of empirical studies verifying theoretical claims. I address these weaknesses by introducing the concept of pop-cultural mobilization to capture the active and deliberate appropriation of pop-cultural resources for a specific political purpose by political actors. [R, abr.]
69.5214 MONTICELLI, Lara; BASSOLI, Matteo —
The article aims at disentangling the existing relation between job precar-iousness and political participation at the individual level illustrating that the former can be considered an emerging political cleavage. The authors apply an interpretive framework typical of political participation studies to an original data set composed of two groups of young workers (with precarious and open-ended contracts) in a big Italian post-industrial city, Turin. First, applying a confirmatory factor analysis, a typology of three ‘modes' of political participation — voting, collective action, and political consumerism — is used to reduce data complexity. Second, logistic regressions are deployed to analyze the role played by occupational status, political positioning, and the interaction between the two, on the different modes of political participation. [R, abr.]
69.5215 MORGUNOVA, Oksana; BYFORD, Andy —
The article analyzes the evolution, during the 2000s and 2010s, of civic engagement and political mobilization of post-Soviet Russian-speaking migrants living in the UK, and highlights the importance of these migrants' inherently transnational position in-between several polities. Transformations of their mobilizations are governed by: the changing context of immigration opportunities in the UK; the technological advancements of new modes of communication; larger political shifts in both Russia and the UK; and significantly, the availability of specific opportunity structures for mobilization. The principal opportunity structures available to these migrants in the 2000s fostered their mobilization as a culturally-defined minority migrant community and encouraged them to become part of a global network of Russian “compatriots”. A new opportunity structure emerged in the early 2010s in the form of a transnational protest movement against political corruption in the Russian Federation. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5185]
69.5216 MÜGGE, Liza M.; VAN DER PAS, Daphne J.; VAN DE WARDT, Marc —
Ethnic minority women tend to be better represented in parliaments than ethnic minority men. What does this mean for their substantive represen-tation? This article makes use of intersectional analysis to study how the relationship between descriptive and substantive representation differs within and between gender and ethnic groups. Drawing on written parliamentary questions and the committee memberships of MPs in seven parliamentary sessions (1995-2012) in the Netherlands, a strong link is found between descriptive and substantive representation. Female ethnic minority MPs more often sit on committees and table questions that address ethnic minority women's interests than male ethnic minority and female ethnic majority MPs. The link, however, is fragile as it is based on a small number of active MPs. [R, abr.]
69.5217 MÜLLER, Stefan; JANKOWSKI, Michael —
Which voters prefer having more choice between parties and candidates in an election? To provide an answer to this question, we analyze the case of a radical change from a closed-list PR system to a highly complex open-list PR system with cumulative voting in the German states of Bremen and Hamburg. We argue that the approval of a personalized electoral system is structured in similar ways as support for direct democracy. Using representative surveys conducted prior to all four state elections under cumulative voting in 2011 and 2015, we analyze which individual factors determine the approval, disapproval, or indifference towards the new electoral law. The results indicate that younger voters as well as supporters of left parties are much more likely to support a personalized electoral system. [R, abr.]
69.5218 NAVIA, Patricio; OSORIO, Rodrigo —
Studies on attitudes toward democracy in post-authoritarian settings tend to overlook support for democracy before the authoritarian experience. Since authoritarian experiences are alleged to affect attitudes towards democracy and authoritarianism, we use the case of Chile to assess the determinants in support for democracy between 1972 and 2013. Estimating marginal effects and predicted probabilities for probit models on polls conducted before and after military rule (1973-1990), we find weak support for authoritarianism before 1973 and stable support for democracy before, during and after military rule. We also review public opinion polls for the authoritarian period to show stable support for democracy. [R, abr.]
69.5219 NEHIR, Levent —
Freedom of the press has never been guaranteed in Turkey. Restrictive laws have set strict boundaries. In addition, the army has repeatedly restricted the work journalists and media. Since the Summer of 2016, the situation has worsened further. The government under Recep Tayyip Erdogan used the attempted coup as an excuse to attack the media. Nearly 200 television stations, news agencies and newspapers were closed, while thousands of journalists were fired, accused of supporting a terror organization or of “terror propaganda”, and prohibited from working in their profession. Hundreds of them were arrested, convicted of crimes or driven into exile. Critical, independent media have been eliminated. Today, the government directly or indirectly controls 90 percent of the media via the AKP. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5638]
69.5220 NYHAN, Brendan; REIFLER, Jason —
Why do so many Americans hold misperceptions? We examine two factors that contribute to the prevalence of these beliefs. First, presenting correct information should reduce misperceptions, especially if provided in a clear and compelling format. We therefore test the effect of graphical information, which may be especially effective in facilitating belief updating about changes in quantities over time. In some cases, though, people may reject information because it threatens their worldview or self-concept — a mechanism that can be revealed by affirming individuals' self-worth, which could make them more willing to acknowledge uncomfortable facts. We test both mechanisms jointly. In three experiments, we find that providing information in graphical form reduces misperceptions. These results suggest that misperceptions are caused by a lack of information as well as psychological threat. [R, abr.]
69.5221 OCCHETTA, Francesco —
In public debate, the model of direct democracy is being imposed — where citizens directly exercise legislative power without intermediation — as an alternative to representative democracy. This article, in addition to explaining the basis and origins of this model, highlights three risks: favoring productive citizens and penalizing those weaker in society and those not connected to the network; reducing freedom of choice to a “yes” and “no”; opposing the popular will to that of the parliament. In this way the minorities organized through the network will decide the laws to be approved, becoming the elites they had intended to combat. [R]
69.5222 ONETTO PAVEZ, Mauricio —
This article analyzes how catastrophes were used by Chilean authorities — state, political, economic and religious — in order to build an identity reference for the country and its inhabitants, in the image of what is proposed by their élites. In fact, the Chilean soil is crossed by several tectonic plates that cause catastrophes of great impact. The élites have endowed these events with a particular significance that, in addition to strengthening their power, has spread the idea that all Chileans are victims of Nature's indomitable effects. Based on the thorough research of press articles written between 1906 and 2010, this article shows how the media's treatment of earthquakes has been part of the liberal project sought by the political and economic elite. [R]
69.5223 ORAZANI, S. Nima; LEIDNER, Bernhard —
We extended recent experimental research on the consequences of social movements' use of strategic nonviolence versus violence to a new situational and cultural context. In the context of the Iranian Green movement, whose use of nonviolence in 2009 was rather unsuccessful, 122 Iranians (mostly Reformists) imagined the same movement reemerging in the future and using either violent or nonviolent strategies. Consistent with our hypotheses, participants were more willing to support the nonviolent movement and had more positive attitudes toward joining it as compared to the violent movement. The mechanism underlying these effects relies on attributions of greater mental capacity and morality to nonviolent movements. Implications for research on collective action, social movements, and social change are discussed. [R]
69.5224 ØSTERGAARD-NIELSEN, Eva; CIORNEI, Irina —
A growing number of countries have granted their emigrant citizens the right to vote in homeland elections from afar. Yet, there is little understanding of the extent to which emigration issues are visible in the subsequent legislative processes of policymaking and representation. Based on an original data set of parliamentary activities in Spain, Italy, France and Romania, this article analyses why political parties pay attention to emigrants. To that end, we propose a conceptual framework which draws on both theories of issue salience and substantive representation. Bridging these two frameworks allows us bring in both parties (salience) and constituencies (representation) in the analysis of the linkage between electorates and parliaments at a transnational level. [R, abr.]
69.5225 ØSTERGAARD-NIELSEN, Eva; CIORNEI, Irina —
The relationship between political parties and voters is usually analyzed in a national framework. However, the majority of states worldwide allow their emigrant citizens to have an absentee vote. This article analyses how parties confront the challenge of mobilizing voters across borders. It presents an analytical framework for comparing the scope of party transnational mobilization strategies across different electoral systems. Drawing on a contextualized qualitative analysis, the article analyses transnational electoral mobilization of the emigrant vote in recent elections in Spain, France, Italy and Romania. The analysis shows that a cost-benefit analysis of electoral incentives explains the scope of trans-national campaign efforts of many of the political parties. Yet the article also suggests locating the analysis of party strategies in the particular context of the transnational electoral field. [R, abr.]
69.5226 PAIN, Emil A.; FEDIUNIN, Sergei Y. —
We argue that one should combine an ideational approach with an approach considering populism as a strategy of political mobilization in order to grasp the populist phenomenon in the Russian context. By focusing on the main political actors in today's Russia, who are often described as populists, we clarify the relationship between two forms of modern demagoguery: populism, based on the flattering of “the people”; and elitism which disdains “the people” in one or another way. Thus, we demonstrate that the major problem in Russia is elitism, not populism. We argue that populism can have positive impacts on the political process both in liberal democracies and non-democracies. Instead of regarding populism as a dangerous threat to democracy, it is more fruitful to consider it as a “simplified” vision of democracy. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5567]
69.5227 PARK, Brandon Beomseob; FRANTZESKAKIS, Nikolaos; SHIN Jungsub —
Does voters' ability to discern who is responsible for policy outcomes affect voter turnout? Although particular institutional arrangements which influence this ability — known as clarity of responsibility — appear to affect how voters form retrospective judgements, existing literature is less informed about its role on voter turnout. This article argues that voters tend to turn out less if they cannot discern who is responsible for policy outcomes. This lack of clarity hinders the process of retrospective evaluations, makes the electoral stakes less profound, and dampens the voters' political efficacy. Using 396 elections in 34 established democracies between 1960 and 2015, it is found that lower clarity of responsibility is associated with lower voter turnout. This study highlights the importance of clarity of responsibility, as it enhances democratic accountability. [R, abr.]
69.5228 PEITZ, Linus; DHONT, Kristof; SEYD, Ben —
Existing research highlights the roles of group identities and concerns about mass migration in explaining attitudes towards the EU. However, studies have been largely silent on whether EU attitudes are also shaped by people's attitudes towards the principles and practices of supranational governance. This research provides a first test of the nature and role of supranational attitudes. We introduce a new measure of supranationalism and, in two studies using samples drawn from the British population, test the psychometric properties of the supranationalism scale. We then identify the socio-ideological correlates (right-wing authoritarianism and social dominance orientation) of supranationalism, along with its effects in predicting EU attitudes and post-Brexit preferences. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5229 PEOU Sorpong —
This article sheds light on how and why the Cambodian People's Party (the CPP) emerged and became dominant in the multi-party system formally introduced to Cambodia when the UN intervened in the early 1990s. Historical factors, relative power, leadership, and tactics matter a great deal. Hun Sen has been in power for more than 30 years and his effectiveness can be attributed to three tactics: coercion, co-option, and control. The post-Cold War environment also made it possible for the CPP government to use these tactics successfully, as major powers preferred to work with Hun Sen or did little to undermine him. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5177]
69.5230 PERDENSEN, Rasmus T. —
The divide separating the political left from right is often expressed in specific numbers. The proper size of unemployment benefits is a key example of such a disagreement, with the left generally favoring higher levels of benefits than the right. However, little is currently known about how voters make up their mind on such policy relevant numbers. Using two survey experiments, this article shows that while Danish voters' attitudes on unemployment benefits are correlated with their ideological position, they may also be strongly affected by the ways in which politically relevant numbers are presented and elicited. Specifically, when making up their minds on such numbers, voters are highly susceptible to anchoring effects and a unit effect. [R, abr.]
69.5231 PERVEZ, Muhammad Shoaib —
I argue that strategic culture is shaped by the ideology of a political party and is carried through elites' practices. A state's decision to become a nuclear power is often explained by rational choice theories. These theories assume states as rational actors and explain their behavior by cost-benefit calculation, keeping in mind the material cost involved in such decisions. The problem with such approaches is that they usually underemphasize the impact of other influences like culture. One such variable is the role of a political party's ideology that influences the identities of state elites and helps shape their strategic behavior. [R, abr.]
69.5232 PIAZZA, James A. —
Research has found that, among other factors, skepticism about democracy and its suitability as a form of government helps to drive public support for violent extremism in the Muslim World. According to scholars, Muslim skeptics of democracy resent it as the product of Western political and cultural intrusion and reflexively support violent extremism as an expression of cultural resistance. Using public opinion data on support for various forms of terrorism among survey respondents in the Palestinian Territories, I find evidence for a more complex explanation. Respondents that support terrorism are indeed more likely to be skeptical of democracy because they regard it to be incompatible with Islam. However, terrorism supporters also reject democratic rule because they associate it with poor economic performance. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5521]
69.5233 POLYÁK, Gábor; SZÁVAI, Petra —
The study analyzes the situation of Hungarian media. It is not focused on the problems of the media, but instead uses them as a point of departure in exploring the options and opportunities available for the EU to effectively intervene in the Hungarian media situation. The article first reviews problem areas and regulatory issues that have contributed to the structural distortion of the Hungarian media system. It then discusses possible conflicts with EU law and finally explores the legal instruments the EU could use to take action against the Hungarian government's media regulation practices. In the second half of the article, current social realities surrounding the consumption and operation of Hungarian media are explored. [R, abr.]
69.5234 POPA, Mircea —
Urbanization and the development of middle and working classes have been proposed as a key explanation for political change in the Western world. This article argues that the traditional inheritance systems practiced across Europe have played an important role in the differential development of these urban classes in the period 1700–1900. Inheritance systems that practice some degree of inequality between heirs will lead to more children, generally younger brothers, leaving the land and taking up urban occupations. A statistical analysis of geographical data shows that regions in which such unequal inheritance was practiced were two to three times more likely to develop urban areas after 1700. [R, abr.]
69.5235 PORTICE, Jennie; REICHER, Stephen —
We develop a mobilization analysis of contemporary antagonism to immigrants. We argue that such antagonism does not arise spontaneously from the cognitions of ordinary people but is mobilized by political actors. This leads us to ask why politicians mobilize such antagonisms and how they do so. Our analysis, illustrated by set piece speeches on immigration by the four main UK party political leaders in the period prior to the 2015 elections, suggests (1) that while these speeches are ostensibly about an intergroup issue, they equally serve intragroup dynamics, notably demonstrating how the speaker serves national interests and hence qualifies to serve as a national representative; (2) the way that speakers mobilize antagonism to immigrants is through construing a variety of forms of threat: spatial threat, economic threat, security threat, and diversity threat. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5205]
69.5236 PORTMANN, Lea; STOJANOVIĆ, Nenad —
This article explores the Electoral Discrimination thesis, according to which voters tend to discriminate against minority candidates. The free-list PR system used in Swiss elections — which allows voters to cast negative preference votes against candidates they do not want to support — offers a unique opportunity to test this thesis. Specifically, we analyze the relationship between immigrant-origin candidates bearing non-Swiss names and the negative preference votes allocated by voters to single candidates. Using a novel research strategy, based on election data stemming from our analysis of real ballots cast in the 2014 local elections in the Canton of Zurich, the article shows that candidates with non-Swiss names incur a significant electoral penalty. The effects of Electoral Discrimination are stronger, however, among supporters of parties from the Right and Center-Right. [R, abr.]
69.5237 POTEETE, Amy R. —
Political clientelism is generally seen as an obstacle to democratic governance and inclusive development. The politics of access to Senegalese fisheries suggest a more nuanced relationship between elections, clientelism, responsiveness, and inclusion. Even where clientelism is pervasive, it takes different forms and interacts with electoral competition to influence the direction and form of political responsiveness. When elections are highly uncompetitive or when electoral turnover is highly likely, elections do little to constrain incumbents or discourage elite resource-grabbing. When electoral competition renders outcomes uncertain, however, politicians face incentives to court potentially influential blocks of voters with promises of decentralized clientelism. This article traces connections between the intensity of electoral competition and the politics of access to Senegalese coastal fisheries since the 1990s, focusing on the period before and after Senegal's second electoral turnover in 2012. [R, abr.]
69.5238 POTRAFKE, Niklas; ROESEL, Felix —
We examine whether local inconsistencies in the counting of votes influence voting behavior. We exploit the case of the second ballot of the 2016 presidential election in Austria. The ballot needed to be repeated because postal votes were counted carelessly in individual electoral districts (“scandal districts”). We use a difference-in-differences approach comparing election outcomes from the regular and the repeated round. The results do not show that voter turnout and postal voting declined significantly in scandal districts. Quite the contrary, voter turnout and postal voting increased slightly by about 1 percentage point in scandal districts compared to non-scandal districts. We employ micro-level survey data indicating that voters in scandal districts blamed the federal constitutional court for ordering a second election, but did not seem to blame local authorities. [R, abr.]
69.5239 POWER, Timothy J.; RODRIGUES-SILVEIRA, Rodrigo —
This article investigates the electorally expressed ideology of Brazilian voters via ecological analysis at the municipal level between 1994 and 2018. We analyze the main conditioners of aggregated patterns of ideology measured at a high spatial resolution. We test four major explanations for the variation in ideology at the municipal level: the effect of incumbent alignments, social modernization, political pluralism, and social inclusion. We find that although the Brazilian electorate as a whole leans to the right, there has been a “gravitational effect” exerted by presidential incumbents over local ideology, and during the PT years this was visible in municipal outcomes. However, the vast majority of municipalities tended to the right even during the period of PT national government. [R, abr.]
69.5240 PRICE, Jessica —
This study builds on relational approaches to social mobilization and organizational ecology to explain local variations in protest frequency in the newer democracies of the developing world. I introduce the concept of keystone organizations, or organizations that justify protest and build influential networks that catalyze protest activity, to explain the localized growth of protest. I contribute to the literature on clientelism by showing that the networks that fuel political clientelism monopolize the organizational environment and discourage protest politics. I test my arguments statistically using an original dataset of protest events in Chiapas, Oaxa-ca, and Yucatan, Mexico, during the 2000 to 2012 federal election seasons that I coded from local newspaper reports. [R]
69.5241 PRIHATINI, Ella S. —
This contribution examines the relationship between socioeconomic development, corruption, the level of democracy, and women's parliamentary representation in contemporary Asia. Previous studies have argued economic development offers women new opportunities and resources to participate in politics. Despite some notable gains in gender equality through this process, prosperous Asian nations perform poorly compared to other world regions in terms of women's parliamentary representation. Using an emerging method of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) on a dataset of 47 Asian nations, this research suggests the level of women's presence in legislatures throughout Asia is a result of multiple configurations of conditions beyond simply one or two explanatory variables. In contrast to the expectations of modernisation theory, this paper finds that national economic variables do not account effectively for the level of women's political representation in Asia. [R, abr.]
69.5242 PRITONI, Andrea —
This paper focuses on the reasons that Italian interest groups decide to lobby together with like-minded groups (‘friends'), or engage in networking activity with groups that have conflicting interests (‘foes'), in order to influence public policy. How often do Italian interest groups recur to these lobbying strategies? What favours the construction of a coalition of more or less different interest groups lobbying on a particular issue? What, on the contrary, influences the decision to lobby individually? In order to answer these questions, original data coming from a national survey conducted on 1277 Italian interest groups are provided. From an explanatory point of view, groups that perceive themselves to be threatened by rivals' influence in policymaking, or by environmental challenges, are more likely to work in coalitions and to engage in networking. [R, abr.]
69.5243 QUINN, Thomas —
This paper examines the British Conservative Party's leadership election of 2016, held in the aftermath of the UK's referendum vote to leave the European Union. The paper analyses the contest using Stark's theoretical framework, which assumes that leaders are chosen according to a hierarchy of criteria: acceptability, electability and competence, in that order. The eventual victor, Theresa May, was indeed the strongest candidate on all three criteria. However, electability appeared subordinate to competence during the contest. Electability is usually regarded as more basic than competence because parties must first win elections before they can start governing. However, governing parties are already in office and new leaders chosen midterm must begin governing immediately. Current competence in office may be a prerequisite for future electability. [R, abr.]
69.5244 RABOTYAZHEV, Nicolai V. —
The article is devoted to the main tendencies of the evolution of European social democracy in the 21st century. By the end of the 20th century, social democracy dealt with hard problems caused by social, economic, sociopsychological changes in the Western countries, dysfunctions of the “welfare state” and the crisis of Keynesian socioeconomic model in the era of globalization. The market-oriented modernization of social democracy became a response to the challenges. The processes of ideological renovation actively developed in the British Labour Party (BLP) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). Many other social democratic parties also adopted some elements of neoliberal economics. However, the global financial crisis of 2008 stopped the shift of social democracy to the right. After 2008, social democracy began to return to more traditional agenda. [R, abr.] [Part of a thematic issue on “Europe: new realities”. See also Abstr. 69.5004, 5131, 5450]
69.5245 RADEAN, Marius —
Existing research on when legislators switch parties reports inconsistent results about motivations for switching (e.g. office, ideology, and votes). I treat the motivations for party switching as substitutes and argue that many of the inconsistencies that persist can be explained by modelling the interactive effects between these motivations. For example, scholars differ in terms of whether they find that electoral considerations are an important determinant of party switching. The conflicting findings on the independent effects of electoral considerations are explained here by demonstrating that these effects are conditional on the level of office benefits a legislator enjoys, as well as the ideological distance between the legislator and party. More generally, the empirical analysis provides strong support for the substitution effect hypothesis. [R, abr.]
69.5246 RAHMAN, Tahmina —
This article traces the development of political polarization in Bangladesh since its 1971 war of independence. I show how polarization is elite-driven, hinging mostly on competing views of the foundation myth of the nation. One major political bloc has emerged that ties national identity tightly to religion (Islam), where the other bloc prefers a national identity tied to ethnicity and use of the Bengali language. I show how an underdeveloped party system has contributed to the resulting political and societal polarization that stems from this ideological divide, which was created by elites as they attempted to consolidate party power. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5247 RAO, Shakuntala —
The privatization and liberalization policies adopted by the Indian state beginning in 1991 dramatically changed the country's media landscape. India now boasts the second-largest media market in the world. The expansion of news media has given women many opportunities to enter the profession. The “macho newsroom” culture, prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s, has changed into one where women are frequently hired at entry-level positions. Such demographic changes in the workforce, however, have not been without serious societal, cultural, and political implications for female journalists, especially those who choose to cover politics. This article addresses the challenges female journalists face on a daily basis within the larger context of the rise in religious nationalism and social media use. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5248 RAY, Jean-Emmanuel, ed. —
Introduction by the editor, “Éruption et représentation (Eruption and representation)”, pp. 188-195. Articles by Jean-Marc BÉRAUD, “Représentation élue et représentation syndicale, les ambiguïtés du modèle français (Electoral representation and union representation, ambiguities of the French model)” pp. 196-197; Paul-Henri ANTON-MATTEI, “Syndicats représentatifs et référendum: la fausse concurrence (Representative labor unions and referendum: a false competition)”, pp. 198-200; Pascal LOKIEC, “Démocratie représentative et démocratie directe — la vogue du référendum (Representative democracy and direct democracy — the poularity of the referendum)”, pp. 201-203; Aurélie CORMIER LE GOFF, Judith KRIVINE, “De la négociation sur le comité social et économique à celle du conseil d'entreprise, seul habilité à négocier (From the negociation on the social and economic committee to the one on works council, which has the exclusive right to do it)”, pp. 204-216; Marcel GRIGNARD, “Des Gilets jaunes aux ordonnances de travail (From the Gilets jaunes to the labor ordonnances)”, pp. 217-219; Pierre BOULLIER, “Quel espace numérique pour les syndicats? (What digital space for labor unions?)”, pp. 220-221; Franca SALIS-MADINIER, “L'organisation du dialogue social avec les syndicats, ailleurs… (Social dialogue organization with labor unions, somewhere else…)”, pp. 222-223; Jean-Christophe SCIBERRAS, “Comment renforcer le dialogue social en France? — Analyse et propositions à la lueur de la crise des Gilets jaunes (How to strengthen the social dialogue in France? — Analysis and proposals in the light of Gilets jaunes crisis)”, pp. 224-226; Jean-Dominique SIMONPOLI, Gilles GATEAU, “Accompagner la dy-namique du dialogue social par la formation et la reconnaissance de ses acteurs et par la valorisation des meilleures pratiques (To support the dynamic of social dialogue by the formation et the recognition of these actors and by the development of best practice)”, pp. 227-233.
69.5249 REPNIKOVA, Maria —
Xi Jinping's era has been depicted as that of an unprecedented crackdown on the media and the public sphere. From intensified censorship to magnified propaganda, the past five years signal a shift towards more control, and some argue, a reversal of openings that existed under the Hu-Wen leadership. This article demonstrates that despite the tightening of political boundaries, journalist-state relations still employ “guarded improvisation,” with authorities adjusting their restrictions in accordance to shifting circumstances, and with some journalists and social media users continuing to use innovative ways to publicize issues of high concern to Chinese citizens. While the space for critique has shrunk, it has not been completely obliterated, and we continue to see creative responses from the bottom-up that initially grew out of the pre-Xi era. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5250 RICH, Timothy S. —
What explains the success of the upstart People's Party in the 2016 Korean National Assembly election? Through pre-election survey data, this article first identifies the demographic factors corresponding with support for the People's Party and how this differs from preexisting parties. Next, it elaborates on how the two-vote electoral system may have benefitted the People's Party by encouraging voters to cast a party list vote for the party while casting a district vote for one of the larger parties, consistent with strategic voting. Further analysis shows that People's Party supporters that intended to vote for their party's district candidate, and thus cast a sincere rather than strategic district vote, were less likely than other partisans to split their votes across two parties. [R]
69.5251 RIPOLL SERVENT, Ariadna; PANNING, Lara —
Trilogues have been studied as sites of secluded inter-institutional decision making that gather the Council of the EU, the European Parliament (EP) and the European Commission. Trilogues, however, are not exempt from formal and informal party-political dynamics that affect intra-and inter-institutional contestation. The increase in Euroskeptics in the 2014 EP elections offers an opportunity to investigate their efforts to shape the position and behavior of the EP negotiating team in trilogues. Therefore, this article investigates to what extent Eurosceptic party groups participate in trilogue negotiations and how mainstream groups deal with their presence. [R, abr.]
69.5252 ROSA, Roberto de; QUATTROMANI, Dario —
This article explores how the Five-star Movement (M5S) has entered the local institutions of Rome and how it has structured its relationship with the administrative machine, considering: the level of knowledge its representatives have reached in the local administration; the kinds of issues they are aware of; what they have learned from the situations they have been involved in, or what they think they have learned from them; what they have not yet learned. The theoretical approach is informed by an institutional perspective (March and Olsen) and so deals with the process of “institutionalization” of the M5S and its elected spokespersons in the city councils of Rome. The analysis covers the period from 2013 until 2018, and the methods used are both quantitative and qualitative. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5080]
69.5253 ROSS, Nicholas —
This article presents four case studies in which peace was negotiated between governments and political opposition parties, and in which major armed groups involved in the conflict were excluded from some or all of the negotiations. The inclusion of opposition political parties and exclusion of some armed actors in these cases derived from the desire of mediators and some of the parties to foreground political concerns (at the expense of military considerations). Opposition political parties were able to play a role in bringing armed groups into peace settlements under some conditions, although strong international pressure and support helped to create the preconditions for this role. This evidence suggests a challenge to arguments that major armed groups must be included in peace negotiations if they are to abide by the resulting peace settlement. [R] [See Abstr. 69.4899]
69.5254 SAHILL, Pamir H. —
This article argues that today, 17 years after the 11 September 2001 attacks, it is even more important to look at the beginnings of, and to reinterpret, the US “War on Terror” discourse. To do so, this article employs a poststructuralist Critical Discourse Analysis and it advances the debate around the notion of “evilization.” Drawing upon M. Foucault's work on the history of madness, it develops the notion of the politics of confinement and situates it in the context of Afghanistan. The article notes that the politics of confinement is illiberalizing and oppressive, contradicting the idea of emancipation functioning behind the US intervention in Afghanistan. Thus, the contradictory discourse of the war in Afghanistan does not serve the purpose of victory as Trump envisages it. [R]
69.5255 SAMPUGNARO, Rossana; GOZZO, Simona —
The structure of the M5s group in the Italian parliament has become more clearly defined during the eighteenth legislature, with the rise of identifiable leaders and the start of a process of internal segmentation. The study examines the process of vertical differentiation from 2013 to 2018, considering simultaneously the intra-group dynamics; the process of political personalization in the media, and instrumental leadership, linked to the MPs' work in Parliament. Focusing on the identification of relational dynamics, the analysis highlights a process of homogenization in the group and the role of specific political resources in the pronouncements of the leadership. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5080]
69.5256 SARTORI, Alberto; PRANZL, Joachim —
In 2015, Montenegro's oppositional alliance Democratic Front (DF) launched “Freedom Calling”, a contentious campaign demanding regime-change. Although presented as non-partisan, it did feature a party-stemming background. Thus, politics turned civil — meaning that the civil character was a disguise for a planned, creative party endeavor. Methodologically, the authors interpret the DF's campaign, elaborating on process tracing and applying Ch. Tilly and S. Tarrow's “contentious politics” approach [Contentious Politics, Oxford U. P., 2012]. They enquire into how the political-party background of the organizers influenced the unfolding of the contentious campaign, thereby addressing the role of parties as initiators of movements. This is especially pertinent in hybrid regimes with formally democratic institutions and persisting authoritarian practices. [R, abr.]
69.5257 SAWASDEE, Siripan Nogsuan —
Although Thaksin Shinawatra's three political parties, together called “the TSP” in this article, overwhelmingly won all four elections between 2001 and 2011, explaining their dominance is a challenge. Nevertheless, this article [examines] how the TSP politicized already latent cleavages, namely the basic split between the lower-middle class and the rural poor versus mostly Sino-Thai Bangkokians and the urban middle class, and made them even more significant. After the TSP was dissolved by court order following the 2006 military coup, these deep divides transformed into two major cleavages, namely the dominating center-local dimension which pits Bangkokian and the urban pole against the provincial pole and the royalist and traditional establishment pole against pro-populist politicians. The TSP's ability to incorporate certain demands into its agendas pointed to its power to manipulate these cleavages. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5177]
69.5258 SCHANZE, Jan-Lucas —
This article is a reply and extension to a paper published by J.-Y. Dormagen and L. Michel in 2018 [Abstr. 68.6209]. In their paper “Do surveys accurately report voters over 80 years old?”, the authors examined the deviations of aggregated self-reported turnout in three French electoral surveys from the French presidential elections of 2002, 2007 and 2012. The tested election studies used a quota sampling method, which suffers most likely from selection bias. I replicate their analysis with probability-based surveys and test whether the bias in turnout of the elderly also occurs in randomly drawn samples. I analysed data of three cross sections of the European Social Survey (ESS-1, ESS-4 and ESS-6). My results show that the probability-based surveys are indeed closer to true values derived from large-scale administrative data. [R, abr.] [See also Abstr 69.5120]
69.5259 SCHOEN, Harald —
This article explores the role of European integration in affecting voting behavior in the 2017 German federal election. Building on a theoretical analysis of EU issue voting, it demonstrates that despite a list of issues on the European agenda, EU-related issues did not play a prominent role in the campaign, nor were issues primarily addressed from a European perspective. Relying on survey data collected before and after the election, the analysis demonstrates that voters perceived parties to differ considerably on EU integration, but they did not care much about it. Attitudes towards European integration and financial aid to EU member states were only mildly related to vote choice in the 2017 election. European integration thus has not yet become a powerful political issue in Germany. The paper concludes by discussing implications for EU issue voting in future German elections. [R]
69.5260 SHOR, Boris —
Why do state legislators vote the way they do? Which influence is pre-dominant: ideology, party, or public opinion? The implementation votes surrounding the Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides a unique setting to examine this question, as they make all three considerations highly salient. State roll call votes on ACA implementation were sometimes polarized and sometimes unexpectedly bipartisan. What accounts for the heterogeneity in individual legislator behavior on bills implementing the ACA at the state level? Using new data on legislator ideology and votes from 2011-2015, I show evidence that legislator ideology was by far the most important predictor of voting on implementation votes, far more so than legislator party or public opinion. Moreover, I show the influence of ideology is heterogeneous by issue area and bill. [R]
69.5261 SHORROCKS, Rosalind; DE GEUS, Roosmarijn —
The article explores whether EU membership has a socialization effect on citizens' attitudes towards their country's membership of the EU. Using a sample of 15 Western European countries, it is shown that this is the case. First, evidence is provided of a positive lifelong socialization effect: citizen support for their country's membership of the EU increases with years spent living in an EU member state. Second, it is shown that those who joined the EU during their formative years are less supportive of the EU, whilst those who spent their formative years in a non-democracy are more positive about EU membership. The size of these effects is very small in comparison to that found for the lifelong socialization effect, suggesting that the lifelong socialization process of continued EU membership is much more important for EU attitudes. [R, abr.]
69.5262 SMULDERS, Jef; MADDENS, Bart —
Despite the pivotal role of payroll staff within political parties' central offices, research on the staff expenses of parties remains scarce. We study the relative staff expenses of political parties, that is staff costs as a percentage of total annual expenses. We analyse which factors explain the differences between parties' relative staff expenses, based on a dataset of 590 individual observations representing 52 parties from seven European countries. The multivariate model shows that relative staff expenses are higher among left-oriented parties and that they increase with party age, party membership figures and the number of years a party has been in government, while they decrease with party income. [R, abr.]
69.5263 SOIKHAM, Piyana —
Previous scholarship has established that the Indian National Congress (INC) is widely regarded as India's dominant party due to its consecutive victories in winning the majority of the vote share in elections, its ability to manage and embrace internal conflict through strong organizational structures and the dominant capacity to set the public agenda and political order. To deepen understanding of this party, this article adopts a norm-based framework to define norms, a social understanding of social groups, which determines and shapes actions and behavior. Building upon this framework, despite the electoral setbacks and even decline in electoral fortunes of Congress after Indira Gandhi since 1977, the INC has been able to maintain a significant presence in Indian party politics due to certain key norms, allowing it to adapt to a changing context. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5177]
69.5264 SOMER, Murat —
Under the Justice and Development Party AKP and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has become one of the most polarized countries in the world, and has undergone a significant democratic breakdown. This article explains how polarization and democratic breakdown happened, arguing that it was based on the built-in, perverse dynamics of an “authoritarian spiral of polarizing-cum-transformative politics.” Furthermore, I identify ten causal mechanisms that have produced pernicious polarization and democratic erosion. Turkey's transformation since 2002 is an example of the broader phenomenon of democratic erosion under new elites and dominant groups. The causes and consequences of pernicious polarization are analyzed in terms of four subperiods: 2002-2006, 2007, 2008-2013, and 2014-present. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5265 SOUTHALL, Roger —
Under apartheid, white oppression of the black majority was extreme, and South Africa became one of the most highly polarized countries in the world. Confronted by a counter-movement headed by the African National Congress (ANC), the ruling National Party (NP) was eventually pressured into a negotiation process that resulted in the adoption of a democratic constitution. This article outlines how democratization defused polarization, but was to be hollowed out by the ANC's construction of a “party-state,” politicizing democratic institutions and widening social inequalities. This is stoking political tensions, which, despite societal interdependence, are provoking fears of renewed polarization along class and racial lines. [R] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5266 SOUTHERN, Rosalynd; LEE, Benjamin J. —
There has been much work done investigating the adoption of online campaigns in UK general election campaigns. Although some research has focused on the candidate-level, this is an under-researched area. This is despite early web-campaign scholars [M. Margolis, D. Resnick. Politics as Usual: The Cyberspace Revolution, Sage, 2000] maintaining that e-campaigning could provide the most important advantages to campaigns at the candidate level. In light of this, the paper aims to provide the most comprehensive study of candidate-level online campaigning carried out in the UK to date. This paper employs original data, measuring website and social media use by candidates during the 2015 UK general election campaign. These data allow for a detailed explanation of the normalization thesis, one of the leading theories in the field of e-campaigns. [R, abr.]
69.5267 SÖZERI, Ceren —
The Islamic press in Turkey started at the beginning of the 20th century as a reaction to the secularist Young Turks' revolution of 1908. In the Republican period, Sufi orders and other religious communities maintained internal communication via periodicals despite being interrupted by the 1960, 1971 and 1980 coup d'états. In the 1990s, the first private Islamic TV channels were opened and soon were targeted by the Turkish Armed Forces through mainstream media in the run-up to the 1997 military memorandum. Only after Erdogan came to power did the Islamic media find favorable conditions to flourish, lining up with Erdogan's AKP. However, there are still small dissident groups who struggle for an independent identity. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5680]
69.5268 STEWART, Brandon —
Constitutional designers often construct political institutions to provide greater autonomy to ethnic minority groups. One tool available to constitutional designers is “ethnic gerrymandering”, where the boundaries of local government units are altered to provide greater representation to minority groups. This paper analyses the effects of changes in the ethnic composition of municipalities, which occur as a result of ethnic gerrymandering, on ethnic party behavior. I compare ethnic party behavior in local elections in the Republic of Macedonia from 2000 to 2013. I expand on a theory initially proposed by Sherrill Stroschein [“Demography in ethnic party fragmentation: Hungarian local voting in Romania”, Party Politics 17(2), March 2011: 189-204; Abstr. 61.3828] a linking ethnic demography to ethnic party behavior. [R, abr.]
69.5269 STIERS, Dieter —
This research note adds to the emerging body of literature arguing that retrospective voting works on the level of political parties — for government and opposition parties alike — by investigating the generalizability of previous research findings. Furthermore, it tests whether there is a knowledge gap in retrospective voting on the party level. Using the data of the Icelandic National Election Study (ICENES), support is found for the argument that mechanisms of electoral accountability work both for incumbent and opposition parties. Second, while previous research raised doubts on the electorate's ability to hold governments accountable, there is no evidence of a knowledge gap in retrospective voting on the party level. [R]
69.5270 SULITZEANU-KENAN, Raanan; ZOHLNHÖFER, Reimut —
Negativity bias suggests that the attribution of blame to governments, for alleged or actual policy failures, is disproportionately pertinent for their popularity. However, when citizens attribute blame for adverse consequences of a policy, does it make a difference which policy was it, and who was the political agent that adopted the policy? We posit that the level of blame citizens attribute to political agents for policy failures depends on three policy-oriented considerations: (1) the distance between a citizen's ideal policy and the agent's established policy position; (2) the distance between a citizen's ideal policy and the agent's concrete policy choice; and (3) the distance between the agent's established policy position and her concrete policy choice. The inherent relationship between these three policy-oriented considerations renders their integration in one model a theoretical and methodological imperative. [R, abr.]
69.5271 SUN Rui; ASENCIO, Hugo D. —
This study examines social media utilization in nonprofit organizations (NPOs) for increasing organizational capacity. Using data from a survey of human service NPOs in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, the study finds that NPOs that post frequently on their social media sites and use dedicated funding are more likely to perceive social media as being effective in increasing their organizational capacity. However, NPOs that use Twitter, videos, and community-building posts are less likely to perceive social media as being effective. The study also reveals that NPOs face major challenges in social media use regarding resources, expertise, leadership and constituency. [R]
69.5272 TAM Waikeung —
Political blogs have played an increasingly more important role in Hong Kong politics. However, research on this topic remains scarce. This analysis examines how political bloggers in Hong Kong used their blogs to participate in politics through a detailed content analysis of 960 political blog articles published on two major news websites — House News Bloggers and Speak Out HK — during the 2014 Umbrella Movement. This study found that “soapbox” stood out as the most popular function hereof, as political bloggers on both ends of the political spectrum actively used their blogs to influence the legitimacy of the Umbrella Movement in the public discourse. [R, abr.]
69.5273 TANG, Phoebe Mengxiao —
Over the past decade, several environmental protests against hazardous projects have been mounted across China. Though extensive scholarship has been devoted to the outcomes of environmental contention, a significant distinction between local government's one-off decision change regarding the specific project and long-term, locked-in policy change towards better governance has largely been overlooked. Meanwhile, environmental contention in authoritarian China has largely been studied in terms of disparate episodes, making systematic observation and effective comparison difficult. Using crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis (csQCA), this article investigates the effect of social contention on shaping environmental governance, analyzing 20 influential cases of environmental protests in China from 2007 to 2014. It demonstrates that environmental contention efforts often yield different fruits in their “project battles” than in their “policy wars.” [R, abr.]
69.5274 TERUEL LOZANO, Germán M. —
This paper aims to study the hate speech as a limit to freedom of speech in the Spanish constitutional order. First, this constitutional system will be identified as open and personalist, which asserts the harm principle so as to justify the limits to freedom of speech, excluding the advocacy of ideas as an offense. Second, the paper will analyze the shortcomings in constitutional jurisprudence in relation to hate speech. Third, it will propose abstract rules which define the limits to freedom of speech before hate speech. Finally, the paper will give a characterization of hate speech suitable to the constitutional framework. [R]
69.5275 THINKING, Forward —
Shorn of a coherent theoretical basis for the party's socialism, some of the Labour Party's policies become emblematic of the party's worldview. Comprehension of how the party's ‘nostalgia' or ‘traditions' affect the party's trajectory could be aided by a better understanding of why certain policies become so deeply rooted. This article explores policy characteristics that combine to make a policy emblematic of Labour's ideology: a strong socialist heritage; a stark contrast with the Conservative opposition; an adhesive quality which can bind Labour people together and relevance to internal factionalism. [R, abr.]
69.5276 TSOUTSOUMPIS, Spyridon —
The article unravels the ties between conservatism, the state, and the far right in Greece. It explores the complex social and political reasons which facilitated the emergence of far-right groups in Greece during the civil war and have allowed them to survive for seven decades and to flourish from time to time. The author pays particular attention to paramil-itarism as a distinct component of the Greek far right. He follows the activities of “Golden Dawn” and other far-right groups, in particular their paramilitary branches. The article examines the far right's relationship to the state and the security services, and explores its overall role in Greek politics and society. He demonstrates how an understanding of the decades following the civil war are indispensable to making sense of recent developments. [R, abr.]
69.5277 TWORZECKI, Hubert —
Poland represents a surprising case of democratic backsliding since the return to power of the PiS party in 2015, given that positive conditions associated with democracy are present — consistent strong per capita economic growth since 1989, moderate inequality, rising wages, strong preference for democracy, high levels of happiness, and a parliamentary system with proportional representation. The lack of strong underlying cleavages indicates the polarization was not bottom up. Instead, this article argues that polarization was driven from the top down by a seg-ment of the political class that donned the cloak of radical populist anti-establishmentarianism to gain popular support, win an election, and rewrite the constitutional rules of the game to its own benefit. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5278 UMEDA, Michio —
This article discusses the origin and continuity of the predominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japanese politics since the party's formation in 1955. The LDP experienced two crises in its history, the first owing to the transformation of Japanese society by rapid economic development during the 1960-1970s, and the second due to the electoral reform in 1994 and the challenge from the Democratic Party of Japan thereafter. I argue that the LDP's continuous success is attributable to its adaptability to new environments: the party overcame the first crisis by shifting the policy focus, reorganizing its support base and the party organization to achieve intraparty consensus. It coped with the second crisis by forming a coalition with the Clean Government Party and reforming the party's presidential election and the ministerial post-allocation system. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5177]
69.5279 UMLAND, Andreas —
During and after Ukraine's celebrated Euromaydan (literally: European Square) Revolution of 2013-2014, a whole number of novel Ukrainian political and societal phenomena emerged. One of the most intriguing was the relatively spontaneous and government-supported emergence of volunteer armed units from late spring 2014 onwards, in connection with the start of Russia's covert paramilitary intervention in Eastern Ukraine. Among the most widely noted of these initially irregular detachments was the “Azov” battalion or regiment, named after the Azov Sea, created, in May 2014, by an obscure lunatic fringe group of racist activists. This paper briefly sketches the origins of Azov, biographies of some of its founders, and particulars of its creation. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5440]
69.5280 UNGER, David C. —
These are perilous times for the US media, their First Amendment protections, and their ability to function. Challenges to the news media's credibility, and its economic model, are not new. But pressures have sharply worsened since Donald Trump's presidential election victory two years ago. America's news media have a long history of raising critical questions about presidential foreign policies. The questioning served a vital function, forcing presidents to greater public accountability and sometimes encouraging them to modify mistaken courses. Demonizing the media will have important foreign policy costs. The dangers at home are even greater. [R] [First article of a special issue on “The State of the Fourth Estate”. See also Abstr. 69.4882, 5061, 5092, 5097, 5124, 5211, 5247, 5249, 5295, 5300]
69.5281 VAN BOHEMEN, Samira; KOSTER, Willem de; VAN DER WAAL, Jeroen —
The U-curve in Euroskepticism is well established: both leftist and rightist populist constituencies are more Euroskeptic than voters for establishment parties. Using rich survey data on a country with both constituencies represented in parliament (the Netherlands; n = 1,296), we examine why Euroskepticism drives populist voting. Our analyses demonstrate that Euroskepticism is part of the well-established link between both (1) distrust in politics and politicians, and (2) support for protectionism on the one hand, and voting for both types of populist party on the other. It is also part of the well-known relationship between (3) ethnocentrism and rightist populist voting. Surprisingly, Euroskepticism is not part of the typical association between economic egalitarianism and voting for a leftist populist party. [R, abr.]
69.5282 VAN DE BOVENKAMP, Hester M.; VOLLAARD, Hans —
Local democracy has increasingly faced problems such as declining voter turnout and decreasing trust in political parties. Certain forms of participatory democracy have been introduced to address political disengagement. Often these efforts do not deliver the envisaged results, as they exacerbate existing inequalities by attracting only certain groups of citizens. This paper takes a close look at representation to find out if and how it can strengthen local democracy. Non-electoral representation, as manifested by representative claims based on non-electoral grounds, such as identity and expertise, made by local councillors, as well as non-elected individuals and organisations, might serve to mitigate democratic problems. We empirically study manifestations of electoral and non-electoral representation and their interactions. [R, abr.]
69.5283 VAN DYCK, Brandon —
Intense polarization can birth enduring political parties. Yet, whereas civil war and authoritarian repression often produce two parties, populist mobilization more often produces one: a populist, not an anti-populist, one. Why not anti-populist parties? The article argues that successful populism, by its nature, inhibits anti-populist party building. Because successful populists discredit a wide array of elites and institutions, anti-populists, who come from these discredited elite and institutions, are unpopular and lack cohesion. Where populists govern over a decade, anti-populist party-building remains difficult, but conditions become less unfavorable: populists inevitably lose popularity, and the opposition commits to elections and undergoes leadership renovation. The article compares four countries: three where no anti-populist party-building has occurred (Bolivia, Ecuador, and Thailand) and one where an anti-populist party almost took root (Venezuela). [R]
69.5284 VAN ERKEL, Patrick F. A. —
Previous studies have found similarities with presidential candidates or party leaders to be an important factor in explaining voting behaviour. However, with the exception of gender, few studies have structurally studied voter-candidate similarities in intra-party electoral competition. This study investigates the Belgian case and argues that voter-candidate similarities play a role in the decision-making process of citizens when casting preferential votes. Moreover, it investigates whether underrepre-sented groups, and especially women, are more guided by these voter-candidate similarities than overrepresented groups. To achieve this aim voter and candidate characteristics are modelled simultaneously. This enables an investigation of the decision-making process of voters while taking into account structural inequalities at the supply side. [R, abr.]
69.5285 VEGETTI, Federico —
Polarization in Hungary is one of the most severe cases in Europe. It is predominantly elite-driven, and determined mostly by the antagonistic confrontation between the parties. Left and Right blocs oppose each other in a struggle where the loser is completely denied any influence on policymaking. The two blocs endorse opposing views on socio-cultural policies, but this division emerged as a consequence of the rhetoric and coalitional choices of parties, more than from the societal divisions that they ostensibly represent. Moreover, while the perceived ideological distance between party blocs is wide, the actual programmatic differences in the parties' economic and social policy stances are modest. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.4923]
69.5286 VEGETTI, Federico; ŠIRINIĆ, Daniela —
Political similarities and differences are often described in terms of left and right. However, while scholars have long focused on their substantive policy content, ideological labels also serve largely as symbolic identifiers of political groups. We investigate how the contextual variation in what left and right mean relates to the way that citizens perceive party ideological positions in European countries. We discuss the impact of categorization, a basic cognitive process where people organize reality by classifying objects into groups based on some relevant characteristics. We argue that when left and right strongly reflect symbolic group attachments, citizens tend to accentuate their perceived similarity to parties in their own ideological camp, and difference from parties in the opposite ideological camp. [R, abr.]
69.5287 VICENTINI, Giulia —
The purpose of the article is try to assess whether inclusive procedures of selection are more likely to appoint a candidate who can be competitive in the general elections compared with less inclusive ones. Accordingly, I took into account nomination processes (NPs) to select/appoint the prime ministerial/presidential candidate for general elections held in four Western European countries (France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom) over approximately the last two decades. Using an original data source and innovative indicators, I assessed the inclusiveness of each NP and the party/candidate's performance in the following general election in order to look for a possible relation. The outcome shows a very weak negative correlation between the two variables. [R, abr.]
69.5288 VIIMARANTA, Hannes; PROTASSOVA, Ekaterina; MUS-TAJOKI, Arto —
Russian-speakers in Finland are the country's largest (and growing) immigrant group. Despite their ethnic diversity and their willingness to integrate in Finnish society, they are often framed in Finnish discourse as “representatives” of Russia with dual loyalties. They are also being simultaneously developed, by different political agents, as both a Finnish and a Russian cultural minority. The article examines the tensions between these different framings, describes the educational and cultural provisions for Russian-speakers in Finland, and gives an overview of various institutions that they themselves have created. Issues of language rights and cultural maintenance receive particular attention. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5185]
69.5289 VINCENT, Susan —
This case study of a peasant community in the Peruvian central highlands examines how vibrant political engagement in the 1970s became indifference during the 2016 Peruvian presidential election. It focuses on changing livelihood activities over the past three decades. Thirty years ago, community incomes were based on farming and wage labor, and community members were activists in worker-peasant organizations to achieve better market and work conditions. Now, small-scale agriculture and formal employment have declined and livelihoods are precarious. The state addresses this through decentralized spending and cash transfers. Despite this unprecedented state support, the community had no interest in the 2016 national election. Instead, their attention was focused on the municipality, which delivers the new funds in Peru's decentralized government system. [R, abr.]
69.5290 VON BERG, Heinz Lynen —
The crisis of the big parties at the political center is a European phenom-enon; in Germany this is especially true of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Many of the voters from its traditional voter base have gone over to the right-wing “Alternative for Germany” (AfD), which is gradually becoming the new worker's party. The paper analyzes the structural reasons for the decline of the SPD and the growth of the AfD. A main question is: Does the SPD have a sustainable conceptual strategy to combat right-wing populism? [R]
69.5291 WALTER, André; EMMENEGGER, Patrick —
Scholars increasingly use Swiss cantons to examine the effect of demo-cratic processes and institutions on political, economic and social outcomes. However, the availability of political indicators at the cantonal level is limited, in particular for longer periods of time. We introduce a novel data set on the ideological and partisan composition of cantonal governments, covering the period 1848-2017 for most cantons. In this research note, we describe our data collection efforts and present some descriptives on the political development of cantonal governments in order to illustrate the data's potential. In particular, we look at the political strength of different parties and factions, the number of parties in government, government volatility and the nationalization of the party system. [R, abr.]
69.5292 WASHIDA, Hidekuni —
Why do some ruling parties attain dominance and remain in power? Focusing on a key case of a dominant party, the UMNO in Malaysia, this article explores its origins and an adaptation strategy under declining dominance. Regarding the origins, the article argues that a leader's credible commitment to providing electoral security for local elites enables collective action to develop resource and spatial advantages. Specifically, the first section revisits the historical process and explains how an initial electoral setback provided leaders with an opportunity to launch administrative reforms, which enabled them to overcome local reluctance and promote the party as a centrist patron. The second section explores why the UMNO declined since 2008 and how it tried to survive. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 69.5177]
69.5293 WILLUMSEN, David M. —
Legislators face numerous trade-offs with regard to how to spend their time. One factor is, however, beyond their control: the distance between their constituency and the legislature. A more distant constituency implies increased travel, which decreases the time available for activities within the legislature itself, while also raising the possibility of center-periphery dynamics in representation. Previous work has found that as distance between constituency and legislature increases, so does constituency focus, but it has not established why this is. This article explores the impact of geographical remoteness on representational activity, analyzing a dataset of parliamentary activity in the British House of Commons (2005-2015), showing that the more remote an MP's constituency, the less likely that MP is to attend votes, while being more likely to sign Early Day Motions. [R, abr.]
69.5294 WOOD, Thomas; PORTER, Ethan —
Can citizens heed factual information, even when such information challenges their partisan and ideological attachments? The “backfire effect,” described by B. Nyhan and J. Reifler [“When corrections fail: the persistence of political misperceptions”, ibid. 32(2), June 2010: 303-330; Abstr. 60.6130], says no: rather than simply ignoring factual information, presenting respondents with facts can compound their ignorance. In their study, conservatives presented with factual information about the absence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq became more convinced that such weapons had been found. The present paper presents results from five experiments in which we enrolled more than 10,100 subjects and tested 52 issues of potential backfire. Across all experiments, we found no corrections capable of triggering backfire, despite testing precisely the kinds of polarized issues where backfire should be expected. [R, abr.]
69.5295 XHARRA, Arbana —
Under R. Erdogan, Turkey has systematically tried to expand its economic and political influence over the Balkans. After investing millions in the Balkans to build new mosques and schools, establish media organizations sympathetic to Turkey, and support pro-Erdogan political parties, Erdogan has become one of the most influential spiritual leaders of Islamic communities in the Western Balkans. Mosques built in Kosovo, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Albania are political establishments meant to promulgate Erdogan's Islamist vision. Journalists and media organizations critical of Erdogan's Islamic agenda face pressure, threats, and propaganda produced by a highly effective pro-Erdogan media machine. As a result, fewer journalists in the region are willing to expose Turkish influence operations. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5296 YAZDIHA, Hajar —
Negative attitudes towards Muslims have increased substantially in Europe, but European Muslims' perceptions of discrimination vary across national contexts. Three separate approaches explain perceptions of discrimination: social psychological theories at the micro-level, migration theories at the social structural level, and citizenship theories at the macro-level. We know less about how these approaches fit together to explain variation in perceptions of discrimination across national contexts. This article identifies a striking puzzle: (1) Muslims report more experiences of discrimination in more inclusive contexts and (2) native-born Muslims are more likely to perceive societal hostility than Muslim immigrants in more inclusive contexts. To make sense of this puzzle, I offer an integrated approach that explains how macro-level contexts condition individual-level perceptions of exclusion through cultural knowledge. [R, abr.]
69.5297 YOO Sung Woo; GIL DE ZÚÑIGA, Homero —
Limited work has explored how the ease and openness of discussion online interplay with unintentional encounters with news in explaining citizens' political engagement. Using a US national survey, this study contributes to the literature by testing the mediating role of heterogeneous and homogeneous political discussion in predicting the relationship between incidental news exposure and political participation. Findings show that heterogeneous discussion fully mediates the relationship with offline participation. The relationship with online participation was partially mediated. Mediation of homogeneous discussion to political participation did not occur. Moreover, a moderated mediation analysis finds that the mediation of heterogeneous discussion is more likely to occur among partisans than nonpartisans. Limitations and further suggestions to advance this line of research are provided in this study. [R, abr.]
69.5298 YOON Mi Yung; MOON Chungshik —
Does gender equality in politics in donor countries affect the allocation to recipient countries of official development assistance in support of gender equality in politics? Since the 1995 Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action and the launch of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals in 2000, gender equality has been underscored as an important development goal for donors. We hypothesize that donors with higher levels of gender equality in politics are likely to allocate more aid to recipients with lower levels of gender equality in politics to promote the equality in politics in those countries. We expect this positive relationship to be even more significant after the launch of the Millennium Development Goals. [R, abr.]
69.5299 YOUNG, Clifford; ZIEMER, Katie; JACKSON, Chris —
We describe the development of a Nativism Index and evaluate its validity in the US context, a global sample, and over time. Our overall objective is to establish the Nativism Index as a valid and reliable measure of nativism for use in subsequent research. Using survey data from Ipsos Public Affairs in the US and from the Ipsos Global Advisor for our global sample, we test the convergent and discriminate validity and reliability of the Nativism Index. The Nativism Index is correlated with but clearly distinct from related concepts, including populism, authoritarian-ism, and fear of others. The Nativism Index is also predictive of support for Donald Trump in the US and UKIP in the UK. [R, abr.] [First article of a special issue on “Immigration, nativism and changing politics”, edited by Christine S. LIPSMEYER, Guy D. WHITTEN and Clifford YOUNG, and introduced, pp. 409-411, by Darrell BRICKER, et al. See also Abstr. 69.4831, 4951, 5117, 5122, 5139, 5178]
69.5300 YURKOVA, Olga —
This article provides a brief historical overview of how propaganda works in Ukraine through the “Ukrainians are Fascists” case, and explores how both the Ukrainian state and civil society reacted: from urgent measures to preserve the state, to ones with more long-term impacts. It also explores the controversy of some measures, and highlights the threats and risks that still exist. Ultimately, the complex solutions used in the Ukrainian case can be the starting point for solving one of the biggest challenges facing humanity today. [R] [See Abstr. 69.5280]
69.5301
Articles by Simon STRAUSS; Jens KASTNER and Lea SUSEMICHEL; Jan-Werner MÜLLER; Silke VAN DYK; Philip MANOW; Aladin EL-MAFAALANI.
69.5302
Special section introduced by Andrew WYATT, “Small parties and the federal structure of the Indian state”, pp. 66-72. Articles by K. K. KAILASH, “Dhritarashtra's embrace: big and small parties in Kerala and Tamil Nadu”, pp. 73-87; C. MANIKANDAN, Andrew WYATT, “Political parties and federally structured incentives in Indian politics: the case of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)”, pp. 88-102; Hugo GORRINGE “‘A voice for the last and least': Thirumavalavan and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi in the Lok Sabha”, pp. 103-116; A. SUNEETHA, M. A. MOID, “Mediating Muslim citizenship? AIMIM and its letters”, pp. 117-132.