Abstract
71.6488 AASKOVEN, Lasse —
A growing literature has argued that electoral turnout decreases the more government policy is constrained by economic and institutional factors. This paper investigates whether a certain type of policy constraint, fiscal rules, lowers turnout. Since fiscal rules set limits for government fiscal policy, they should lower the incentive for citizens to participate electorally. However, using parliamentary turnout data in a large panel of democratic countries, little robust evidence is found in favor of fiscal rules having a depressing effect on electoral turnout. Analysis of European individuallevel data also suggests that national fiscal rules do not affect inequality in electoral turnout between income groups either. [R, abr.]
71.6489 ABTS, Koen, et al. —
Recent scholarship on the populist radical right tends to imprecisely describe the welfare agenda of this party family with reference to its key ideological characteristics of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. We propose an alternative analytical framework that considers the multidimensionality of welfare state positions and the “deservingness criteria” that underlie ideas about welfare entitlement. Applying this framework to a sample of four European populist radical right parties, we conclude that three interrelated frames inform their welfare agenda. These parties, we argue, advocate social closure not only on the basis of the deservingness criterion of identity (welfare chauvinism), but also on criteria of control, attitude, and reciprocity (welfare producerism) and on an antagonism between the people and the establishment (welfare populism). [R, abr.]
71.6490 ADAM, Christian, et al. —
EU citizens have rights when living in a member state other than their own. Bureaucratic discrimination undermines the operation of these rights. We go beyond extant research on bureaucratic discrimination in two ways. First, we move beyond considering mobile EU citizens as homogenous immigrant minority to assess whether EU citizens from certain countries face greater discrimination than others. Second, we analyse whether discrimination patterns vary between the general population and public administrators regarding attributes triggering discrimination and whether accountability prevents discrimination. In a pre-registered design, we conduct a population-based conjoint experiment in Germany including a subsample of public administrators. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6305]
71.6491 ADAMS, James ; BERNARDI, Luca ; PHILLIPS, M. Christine —
Previous research documents that citizens apply a “coalition heuristic” to infer that governing coalition partners share more similar policies and ideologies than are implied by the statements in their election manifestos. We propose even simpler government-related heuristics citizens can apply to infer party positions on European integration: the current government heuristic that currently governing parties are more pro-Europe than opposition parties, and the long-term opposition heuristic that opposition parties that have never governed are less pro-Europe than opposition parties with previous governing experience. We report theoretical and empirical analyses of survey data from 24 European Union member states, which substantiate that citizens apply these heuristics, which have consequences for citizens’ policy beliefs and their party support. We also find evidence that citizens respond to policy as measured through election manifestos and expert surveys. [R]
71.6492 AHMED, Reem ; PISOIU, Daniela —
Recent elections in Europe have demonstrated a steady rise in the success of right-wing populist parties. While advancing an anti-immigration agenda, these parties have been adamant to distance themselves from ‘right-wing extremism’. This article analyses a sample of tweets collected from the Twitter accounts of the German AfD, Identitarian Movement and the Autonomous Nationalists by employing frame analysis. We conclude that the frames of far-right actors classified as extremist, New Right, and populist in fact convergeand we discuss our findings in the context of related case studies in other European countries. [R]
71.6493 AICHHOLZER, Julian ; KRITZINGER, Sylvia ; PLESCIA, Carolina —
Scholars have long recognized that national identity-related factors are among the strongest predictors of citizens’ attitudes toward the EU. But while some find that they reinforce support for the EU, other scholars show that national identity undermines its support. In this article, we aim to disentangle this puzzle by studying how the national identity profiles of European citizens relate to support for the EU across individuals and member states. To this end, we employ data from the International Social Survey Program 2013, by far the most extensive collection of survey questions on national identity, and the technique of latent class analysis. [R, abr.]
71.6494 AICHHOLZER, Julian ; RAMMSTEDT, Beatrice —
Scholars trying to understand attitudes toward the EU are increasingly interested in citizens’ basic predispositions, such as the “Big Five” personality traits. However, previous research on this particular relationship has failed to provide sound hypotheses and lacks consistent evidence. We propose that looking at specific facets of the Big Five offers a deeper understanding of the associations between personality predispositions, their measures, and EU attitudes. For this purpose, the 60-item Big Five Inventory-2, which explicitly measures Big Five domains and facets, was administered in a German population sample. We applied a variant of structural equation modeling and found that personality predispositions promoting communal and solidary behavior, cognitive elaboration, and a lower tendency to experience negative emotions predicted support for further European integration. [R, abr.]
71.6495 AKBOGA, Sema ; SAHIN, Osman —
A variety of factors affect citizens’ satisfaction with democracy. Based on Turkey’s political and economic context, as well as the existing literature, this study investigates the effect of four factors on people’s satisfaction with democracy in Turkey: citizens’ conceptualizations of democracy, being a political winner, citizens’ perceptions of electoral integrity, and ethnic identity. Regression analysis of a nationally representative survey reveals that political losers and those with negative perceptions of electoral integrity are less satisfied with democracy in Turkey, while people’s conceptualizations of democracy and ethnic identity do not have an effect on satisfaction with democracy. We conclude that, in Turkey, political polarization and negative perceptions of electoral integrity trigger a decline in citizens’ satisfaction with democracy, which requires the attention of policymakers. [R]
71.6496 AKKAN, Başak ; LEPIANKA, Dorota —
Political discourses in Europe operate at the supranational, national and local level, with supranational institutions providing a normative framework for the policy making at lower governance level. However, the actual appeal of the legal, political and normative frameworks offered by supranational European institutions remains unclear. For example, while ‘justice’ is deemed constitutive of European values and ideals of democracy, and European institutions offer a clear vision of what ‘justice’ in pluralistic European societies should imply, relatively little is known about how this normative framework is reflected in national-level politics. The current article aims to close this gap by comparing political discourses on representative justice in six European countries with the European normative framework reconstructed on the basis of documents issued by the Council of Europe (CoE) and the European Parliament (EP). [R, abr.]
71.6497 Al-ANANI, Khalil —
How can we explain the neoliberal orientation of Islamist movements in the Middle East? This paper attempts to answer this question by exploring the case of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. It analyzes in depth the Brotherhood’s socio-economic vision and policies when it was in power between 2012 and 2013. It argues that the Brotherhood adopted a marketoriented vision, which encouraged the private sector, liberalized the economy, and appealed to foreign investments. As a socio-political movement, the Brotherhood attempted to strike a balance between its constituency, which is rooted in the lower, middle, and upper-middle classes, and its commitment to neoliberal policies. However, this paradoxical balance burdened the movement and affected its popularity. [R, abr.][See Abstr. 71.6547]
71.6498 ALBERTAZZI, Daniele ; BONANSINGA, Donatella ; ZULIANELLO, Mattia —
The growth of populist radical right parties at the expense of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (FI) has recently reconfigured the right in Italy. Changes in power relations created for the Lega (League), Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy, FdI) and FI, different competitive pressures, resulting in distinctive — and often conflicting — responses to the pandemic. Based on the analysis of these parties’ Twitter accounts and on survey data, this article examines how right-wing actors positioned themselves vis à vis the government, and each other, throughout 2020. Eventually, the League became the government’s most vocal critic, forcing FdI to follow suit; meanwhile, FI reinvented itself as a moderate, pro-EU party. Despite these changes, our analysis also stresses continuity, insofar as the alliance continued to craft its message around taxation, the EU, immigration and law/order, as it had done in the past. It also continued to enjoy electoral support similar to that of recent decades. [R] [See Abstr. 71.7027]
71.6499 ALBERTAZZI, Daniele ; ZULIANELLO, Mattia —
This article investigates the impact of sub-national contextual variations on the performance of populist actors in a country in which several electorally relevant populist parties exist: Italy. By employing a multi-model Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) of the 2018 Italian general election, it explores the extent to which factors such as the distribution of ‘economic losers’ and the impact of migration, political discontent and societal malaise have influenced the performance of the Lega (League) and the Movimento Cinque Stelle (Five-star Movement, M5s). The study shows that, while the League has thrived especially in areas characterized by ‘cultural backlash’, but also in contexts characterized by Euroscepticism and societal malaise, the success of the M5s cannot be explained without reference to poor economic and institutional performances. [R, abr.]
71.6500 ANDAÇ-JONES, Elif —
In May and June of 2013, a spontaneous urban protest emerged in Taksim Square, in response to the aggressive development plans to convert one of the few remaining green spaces in [Istanbul] into an all-concrete private shopping mall complex. These protests quickly grew into a countrywide anti-government movement with a broad coalition of students and working and middle classes from a wide political landscape. Brutal methods used in clearing the park helped to expand the concerns of the protest from environmental to anti-authoritarian. Ultimately, the event created a platform that unified all opposition voices and gave them hope to resist the erosion of individual rights and freedoms, loss of public space and perceived injustices of the ruling AKP Party. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6501 ANGERBRANDT, Henrik ; THEMNÉR, Anders —
In countries transitioning from military to democratic rule, authoritarian legacies often continue to influence politics. Whereas previous research has focused on the institutional causes of such deficiencies, there is a lack of studies examining the role ex-military leaders who re-emerge as civilian presidents have in sustaining authoritarian tendencies. In this article, we begin to fill this lacuna by investigating the question: how and under which conditions do ex-military leaders’ political identity constructions affect their tendency to place themselves above politics? The literature on neo-patrimonialism and post-civil war politics points to the importance of the political identities of ex-militaries, and we propose a theory that highlights the role identity construction plays in shaping elites’ decision-making processes. [R, abr.]
71.6502 ARANA ARAYA, Ignacio ; HUGHES, Melanie M. ; PÉREZLIÑÁN, Aníbal —
Can weak judicial institutions facilitate the advancement of women to the high courts? We explore the relationship between weak institutions and gender diversification by analyzing the consequences of judicial reshuffles in Latin America. Our theory predicts that institutional disruptions will facilitate the appointment of women justices, but only when left parties control the nomination process. We test this argument using difference‐in‐differences and dynamic panel models for 18 Latin American countries between 1961 and 2014. The analysis offers support for our hypothesis, but gains in gender diversification are modest in size and hard to sustain over time. Political reshuffles may produce short‐term advances for women in the judiciary, but they do not represent a path to substantive progress in gender equality. [R]
71.6503 ARKILIC, Ayca —
Turkey has seen a surge in populist nationalism over the last decade. How this has played out in transnational space through overseas Turkish citizens’ voting behaviour remains understudied, however. This article takes up this question, focusing on how the populist-nationalist appeals of the ruling AKP have been received by Turkish citizens in Europe. Specifically, it asks why such appeals have resonated highly with voters in some host countries but not in others. The study suggests that expatriates from Turkey facing more discrimination are more likely to be wooed by populistnationalist discourse from the homeland. The findings draw on official statements and speeches, Turkish electoral data, the European Union Minorities and Discrimination Survey, newspaper articles, and secondary sources. [R]
71.6504 ARNESEN, Sveinung, et al. —
Does information about the consequences of proposals to change the Norwegian parliamentary electoral system influence voters’ and politicians’ attitudes towards the system? Is the willingness to accept change greater among voters/politicians who “lose” under the present electoral system? These questions are illuminated using empirical data from two identical survey experiments, with responses from both voters and politicians about (1) increased proportionality between parties (more seats for smaller parties) and (2) increased geographical proportionality (stronger representation for the more populous counties). The results show that being informed about the consequences of the proposals has a major effect on voters’ and politicians’ attitudes. This applies especially to the question of increased proportionality between parties. [R, abr.]
71.6505 AZIZ, Sardar ; COTTEY, Andrew —
During the war against Islamic State from 2014 to 2017 the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga became important local allies of the United States and its international partners, playing a significant role in the eventual defeat of Islamic State. In 2017, backed by the US and its Western allies, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) agreed plans to reform and modernize the Peshmerga. This article provides an analysis of this reform process. Reform is severely constrained by two problems. First, the continuing soft civil war between Iraqi Kurdistan’s two main political parties. Second, the heroic-mythic status of the Peshmerga within Iraqi Kurdish society, which makes it difficult to convert the Peshmerga into a “normal” military force. [R, abr.
71.6506 BAHRY, Donna ; KIM Young Hun —
What prompts governments in new democracies to investigate elected leaders once they leave office? Theorizing about democratic regimes suggests that leadership turnover by constitutional means should generate few such cases: democratic entry to and exit from office are thought to prompt benign treatment from successor administrations. Yet over a third of democratically elected presidents and prime ministers who left office between 1970 and 2011 have faced investigations for malfeasance. This study analyzes the conditions that generate such cases. We find that the odds of investigation rise when there is strong evidence of former leaders’ personal culpability; but also when the executive regime is presidential, and the judiciary lacks independence from other branches. [R, abr.]
71.6507 BALDINI, Gianfranco ; GIGLIOLI, Matteo F. N. —
The majority view within political science is that populism is best understood as a (thin) ideology. We problematize the ideational approach by broadening the scope of analysis, linking populism to the rise of long-term generalized anti-political sentiments, against interpretations that tend to tie the populist wave to conjunctural factors related to recent crises. We argue that the essence of populism lies at the intersection of the ‘material constitution’ of advanced industrial democracies (that is, how macroeconomic governance relates to democratic decision-making) and the feelings of societal alienation that are at the heart of anti-political sentiments. We show the peculiar coexistence of economic turbulence, heralded by the crisis of the cartel party and of the neoliberal economic consensus, and an appeal to a post-democratic ‘virtual politics’ of performed but ineffectual popular sovereignty. [R, abr.]
71.6508 BARBASHIN, Anton ; IRISOVA, Olga —
Since the nation-wide protests of 2011-2012, the Russian state apparatus has invested considerable resources into the prevention, control, and suppression of all forms of public disobedience. Protests that have only a local, case-based agenda, do not seek federal support, and do not reach out to nation-wide protest leaders are capable of achieving success and convincing state officials to reconsider their decisions, either through compromise or by reverting selected state policies. Despite nationwide efforts by the state to discourage dissatisfied citizens from protesting, public manifestations of discontent are on the rise. Coordinated protest movements with high-profile leaders and organizational infrastructure are giving way to leaderless protests coordinated via multiple rallying centers relying on instant messengers and case-based support of local communities. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6509 BARBER, Greg ; KLASSEN, Andrew —
This study examines the impact of mainstream political parties’ strategies on the Australian Greens, a ‘niche party’ associated with the global warming issue. The Green vote rose between the 2004 and 2016 elections despite voters’ support for action on global warming declining. Meguid (Party Competition Between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe, Cambridge U. P., 2008) proposed that mainstream parties must decide whether to dismiss, accommodate, or oppose a new issue and niche party, predicting the impacts using the theory of ‘issuesbased voting’. We use a time series of voting intention to test this theory. Mainstream party strategies had the predicted effects on the Greens vote. In the presence of a competitive niche party, mainstream parties’ strategies may respond to the dynamics of competition, beyond the traditionally considered institutional and economic forces. [R]
71.6510 BARNES, Tiffany D. ; BEALL, Victoria D. ; HOLMAN, Mirya R. —
Research shows that the underrepresentation of the working class matters in terms of policy processes and outcomes. Yet the research on class has largely focused on blue‐collar representatives, who are primarily men. Working‐class women are more likely to hold pink‐collar jobs, or low‐status occupations dominated by women. We argue that pink‐collar legislators are uniquely positioned to legislate over education and social service policy. To test our argument, we combine a new coding of working‐class backgrounds that accounts for pink‐collar representation with state spending data on education and social services from US states over time. Modeling compositional budget data, we find that class and gender intersect to shape policy outcomes via state budget allocations, with women’s pink‐collar representation associated with increased spending on both education and social services. [R, abr.]
71.6511 BAUHR, Monika ; CHARRON, Nicholas —
While recent studies find a strong association between the share of women in elected office and lower levels of corruption, we know less about if women in executive office cause reductions in corruption levels, and if such effects last over time. This study suggests that women mayors reduce corruption levels, but that the beneficial effect may be weakened over time. Using both regression discontinuity and first difference designs with newly collected data on French municipal elections combined with corruption risk data on close to all municipal contracts awarded between 2005 and 2016, we show that women mayors reduce corruption risks. However, newly elected women mayors drive the results, while gender differences are negligible in municipalities where women mayors are re elected. [R, abr.]
71.6512 BEAUVAIS, Edana —
Focusing on the legacy of women’s political exclusion from the public sphere, I consider whether internal exclusions undermine women’s ability to influence political discourse even under conditions of formal political equality. All else being equal, do women and men in Western democracies have the same discursive influence? Are women particularly sensitive to men’s discursive authority? I help answer these questions using an experimental research design. The results of my study offer evidence that people are more willing to revise their opinions after hearing a man’s counterargument than after hearing a woman’s identical counterargument. This pattern appears to be driven by the way women respond to a man’s counterclaim. I discuss how gendered discursive inequities reinforce existing patriarchal structures, and the role that women inadvertently play in their own subjugation. [R, abr.]
71.6513 BEBBER, Robert J. —
This article contends that the US is competing with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), not “China,” and also that the competition with the CCP should be oriented around the “known unknown” question: How long will the CCP retain a monopoly on power over China? Such a framework provides significant benefits to policymakers and strategic planners. First, it focuses the aim point of the US competition on the true center of power. Second, it provides a desired end state of US policy around which to orient the competition and design strategy — the CCP no longer in a monopoly position. [R]
71.6514 BEDOCK, Camille ; PILET, Jean-Benoit —
Despite their multiplication over the last 15 years, studies on the support for assemblies composed of citizens selected by lot are rare and the few that exist analyse citizens’ attitudes towards such mini-publics as consultative bodies associated with traditional representative institutions. We examine support for citizens selected by lot as new policymakers who take the most important political decisions instead of political representatives. We contrast support for this radical democratic innovation with support for two other reforms that increase citizen participation: generic support for a greater involvement of citizens in policymaking, and specific support for citizen-initiated referendums. [R, abr.]
71.6515 BEECH, Matt —
The phenomenon of Brexit is reordering British politics. Its effects have led to political and cultural shock, disruption and rifts. This article explores how the phenomenon of Brexit has decentered the Labour Party’s ideational traditions. The article utilises a mixed methodology which combines qualitative and quantitative data in the form of scholarly literature on Labour history, Labour Party manifestoes, speeches and media interviews by front-line politicians as well as polling data. In particular, the article analyses how Labour politicians are reimagining the two main traditions of thought: the Euro-enthusiast tradition and the Euro-sceptic tradition. The article argues that Labour’s Euro-enthusiasts are reimagining the tradition as a full blooded cosmopolitanism and this is simultaneously controversial and high risk because it has refashioned Labour’s interests into a narrower social and cultural electoral offering. [R] [See Abstr. 71.6990]
71.6516 BERGERON, Thomas ; GALIPEAU, Thomas —
Few studies have focused on the Canadian context to examine the political impacts of personality. Even though the Canadian Election Study (CES) has measured the Big Five personality traits since 2011, very few studies have taken advantage of this data to assess personality’s political role among the Canadian electorate. Using CES data from the three latest elections (2011, 2015 and 2019), we first explore how reliable the measurement of personality is. Except for agreeableness in 2015, the correlations across the personality items are similar to what is typically found in the literature. We next examine how personality affects ideology and partisan identity in the Canadian context. We show that a two-dimensional measurement of ideology refines our understanding of the impacts of personality on ideology. [R, abr.]
71.6517 BLACKMON, Pamela —
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have new leaders for the first time since 1989: Shavkat Mirziyoyev as Uzbek president and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev as Kazakh president. This article uses a theoretical framework based on the literatures of leadership change and political succession while overlaying this literature with the type of economic policies followed by each former leader to analyse the political and economic transitions in these countries. Mirziyoyev has legitimized his authority, even though he was not part of the elite, through reforms designed to help the people (as Karimov had envisioned in the ‘Uzbek way’). In contrast, Nazarbayev’s policies were centred around the state as a facilitator of economic development, a problem for citizens in an economic downturn. While Tokayev transitioned through a formal electoral process, his was a ‘managed’ designation, with the charismatic leader still in a formal position of power, leaving Tokayev without a separate base of legitimacy. [R] ]
71.6518 BLANKENSHIP, Brian, et al. —
While scholarship on “retrospective voting” has found that incumbent politicians can be punished for a range of events outside their control, the literature has paid scant attention to the role of political alignment between the different levels of government in disaster responses and its implications for voting decisions. We argue that retrospective voters punish only opposition incumbents (candidates in office but not aligned with the government leader), who have limited access to government resources for relief, for natural disasters. We use monthly data on precipitation and evaporation to capture droughts and floods in India’s four thousand State Assembly electoral constituencies over the years 1977-2007. [R, abr.]
71.6519 BLAREL, Nicolas ; VAN WILLIGEN, Niels —
When and how do regional parties influence foreign policy in federal democracies with multiparty coalition governments? The existing literature has focused on situations of foreign policy disagreements between subnational parties and the central government in multinational states. By contrast, we argue that under varying conditions, central governments either decide to accommodate the preferences of small regional parties when designing foreign policies, or co-opt these regional parties to push their own foreign policy agenda. Some scholars looked at the role of decentralization and federal power arrangements in providing more control to political sub-units over the external affairs of a state. [R, abr.]
71.6520 BØGGILD, Troels, et al. —
We propose an individual-level explanation for variation in personalized representation, and ask which personality fits personalized representation. Building on political psychology literature, we derive hypotheses about how fundamental personality traits such as extraversion and agreeableness correlate with politicians’ preferences for personalized representation. We investigate these expectations using new survey data collected simultaneously among Danish and British MPs, including comprehensive personality measures. We show that personalized representation is particularly pronounced among MPs with higher levels of extraversion, openness to experience and lower levels of agreeableness. Furthermore, and in line with our theoretical expectations, we show that the correlations between personality traits and preferences for personalization vary across countries. Our findings suggest that personalized representation has an underlying personal dimension; consequently, politicians with certain personality traits may have an electoral advantage, particularly where politics become increasingly personalized. [R] [See Abstr. 71.6629]
71.6521 BOL, Damien ; GIANI, Marco —
There is a long tradition of imputation studies looking at how abstainers would vote if they had to. This is crucial for democracies because when abstainers and voters have different preferences, the electoral outcome ceases to reflect the will of the people. In this paper, we apply a non-parametric method to revisit old evidence. We impute the vote of abstainers in 15 European countries using Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM). While traditional imputation methods rely on the choice of voters that are on average like abstainers, and simulate full turnout, CEM only imputes the vote of the abstainers that are similar to voters, and allows to simulate an electoral outcome under varying levels of turnout, including levels that credibly simulate compulsory voting. [R, abr.]
71.6522 BOLSEN, Toby ; THORNTON, Judd R. —
We investigate the degree of affective polarization in presidential election years toward the two major parties and their nominees. Notwithstanding studies which show that individuating information about an out-group member can generate a person-positivity bias, we demonstrate a personnegativity bias directed at out-party candidates at least for some. We motivate and test two hypotheses: first, we expect more sophisticated partisans to display a greater difference in their feelings towards specific candidates compared to evaluations of the parties themselves; second, we anticipate sophisticated partisans will exhibit a person-negativity bias toward out-party candidates and a person-positivity bias toward in-party candidates. The results accentuate the conditional nature of the person-positivity bias and shed light on how political sophistication is linked to affective polarization. [R]
71.6523 BOULANGER MARTEL, Simon Pierre —
This article investigates the role of cultural production as a practice with important implications for rebel legitimacy. Cultural production is employed to bolster rebel group legitimacy internally, by justifying existing hierarchical relations between the leadership and fighters, and externally by positioning the rebel group as a legitimate alternative to established elites and a rightful representative of the people. Building on a relational approach to armed groups legitimacy, the article analyses cultural production by the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). The analysis draws on FARC music production from 1988 to 2019, internal documents, artists’ testimonies, and field observations from 2017. [R]
71.6524 BRAMAN, Eileen —
This study explores how citizens think about the appropriate exercise of authority across the branches of government. Three similarly designed experiments conducted on national samples reveal that what individuals are told about compliance with decision‐making rules matters across institutions, but so does the political context in which officials are acting. Participants’ policy preferences about the issues that are the subject of government action are particularly important in such assessments. Evidence suggests that feelings about President Trump and participants’ policy views are more important in assessments of the appropriateness of unilateral action than they were during the Obama administration; findings also suggest that what participants are told about President Trump’s compliance with rules is less important. [R, abr.]
71.6525 BRÄNNLUND, Anton —
Fluctuations in the labor market are a natural part of the business cycle, and they have attracted attention from political scientists for decades. Some scholars argue that left-wing parties benefit from rising rates of unemployment while others claim that voters rally behind conservative parties when the labor market weakens. I argue that the heterogeneous response of voters to a rise in the unemployment rate is due to differences in asset wealth. Put simply, the well-off have less need for social insurance, so they vote for conservative parties in order to put a cap on social spending when the unemployment rate rises; by contrast, asset-less voter opt for the left, with an eye to preserving their entitlements. [R, abr.]
71.6526 BRAR, Gurpreet Singh —
The study primarily negates the thesis that whole India has politically got tinctured in the shade of saffron due to the political dominance of the BJP stimulated by the personality charisma of Narendra Modi. The study argues that the illusion of establishing homogenous nationalism in India by provoking the sentiments of religious majority is not acceptable to ethnic minorities in India. The ethno-religious minorities, i.e. Muslims in the Kashmir region and Sikhs in Punjab, as well as the ethno-linguistic minority of Tamils in Tamil Nadu, have expressed their strong reaction against the Hindu and Hindi nationalism of the BJP. [R]
71.6527 BROEKEMA, H. B. ; FENGER, H. J. M. ; VAN DER WAAL, J. —
The decentralisation of policy responsibilities from the national to the local level in the domain of social policies is meant to facilitate a better fit to local conditions, and, consequently, inspire local variation in social policy positions. This article examines two questions: (1) to what extent do Dutch local party branches’ social policy positions deviate from their national mother party and local peer parties and (2) do local conditions explain this deviation? To answer these questions, we developed a dataset including 168 local party manifestos from 27 strategically selected municipalities and 8 national party manifestos. Our analyses show limited deviation in local parties’ positions compared to their national mother party and other local branches of their national mother party. [R, abr.]
71.6528 BROMS, Rasmus —
The link between taxation and representation is generally considered foundational to the emergence of democratic governance. Nevertheless, the empirical relationship between taxation and the extent to which citizens actually exert representation by turning out to vote remains virtually unexplored. Using a panel of all Swedish municipalities from 1979 to 2018, I find that hikes in local tax rates are linked to increased municipal voter turnout. Accounting for a wide range of confounders, including turnout in concurrent parliamentary- and county elections, these results indicate an important untapped explanation for changes in turnout, while offering a rare explicit test of the taxation-representation argument drawn from a mature democracy. [R]
71.6529 BULLOCK, John G. —
Although scholars have studied education’s effects on many different outcomes, little attention has been paid to its effects on adults’ economic views. This article examines those effects. It presents results based on longitudinal data which suggest that secondary education has a little-appreciated consequence: it makes Americans more opposed to redistribution. Placebo tests and other analyses confirm this finding. Further investigation suggests that these conservative effects of education operate partly by changing the way that self-interest shapes people’s ideas about redistribution. [R]
71.6530 BULUT, Alper T. ; HACIOĞLU, Nurhan —
By content-coding 40 parliamentary group speeches of the major Turkish parties over a period of 4 years, we show that existing measures of populism should include two more categories in order to understand the populist communication strategies of the Turkish political parties. The first category is “discursive religious symbolism” which is included in the thin populism dimension. The other is “foreign policy populism” which is included in the thick populism dimension. Our results show that the inclusion of these new categories is crucial for our understanding of populist communication styles in Turkish politics. The results also indicate that both discursive religious symbolism and foreign policy populism plays a crucial role in the resilience of the incumbent Justice and Development Party. [R]
71.6531 BURIHABWA, Ntagahoraho Z. ; CURTIS, Devon E. A. —
The widespread enthusiasm for internationally-supported liberal statebuilding since the 1990s has become much more tempered, due in part to the mixed record of postwar liberal state-building. Over time, many postwar countries have adopted more authoritarian state-building trajectories, despite the fact that negotiated peace agreements tend to reflect liberal principles. This is often attributed to ‘liberal’ international actors encountering resistant ‘illiberal’ domestic elites. The postwar state-building trajectory in Burundi appears to fit this dominant narrative, with the ruling party, the Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie-Forces pour la Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD), deviating from some of the liberal principles that underpinned the Burundian peace agreement. Drawing on a detailed analysis of the internal politics of Burundi’s ruling party, we show that this account is flawed. [R, abr.]
71.6532 BURNETT, Craig M. ; PARRY, Janine A. —
Existing scholarship about ballot measure voting and elite cuegivers suggests that the express endorsement of an unpopular legislature on a statewide ballot measure will depress voter support. Despite seven tests across two decades on both high- and low-profile measures, it did not. This null finding is in keeping with macro-level patterns of strong public support for the more than 4000 legislative referrals approved by voters in the past century. Consequently, we propose that the influence of an elite endorsement on voter behavior is more complicated than past research suggests. Specifically, in keeping with the seminal observation made by Hibbing and Theiss-Morse (1995) that American political cynicism is more a matter of distaste for certain political practices than for actual political institutions, we suspect that when voters are overwhelmed by policy proposals that are both unfamiliar and complex, they may find assurance in the imprimatur of their General Assembly. [R]
71.6533 BUSH, Sarah Sunn ; ZETTERBERG, Pär —
The global spread of electoral gender quotas has been characterized as one of the most significant institutional developments of the last 30 years. Many of the countries that have adopted these laws designed to increase women’s political representation are electoral autocracies that have otherwise‐stark gender inequalities. Some scholars argue that electoral authoritarian states have adopted quotas as a strategy for improving their international reputations for democracy. This article represents the first exploration of whether quotas really generate reputational boosts. Using large‐scale survey experiments in Sweden and the United States concerning hypothetical developing countries, we find that they do. In particular, audiences perceived electoral autocracies as more democratic and were more likely to support giving them foreign aid when women’s descriptive representation was greater. [R, abr.]
71.6534 CABEZA, Laura ; SCANTAMBURLO, Matthias —
The 2019 regional elections in Spain were held in a context of political instability and polarization in the country and just 28 days after the national elections. Taking advantage of this unprecedented quasi-simultaneous electoral setting, this article analyzes vote-switching between regional and national elections, both at the aggregate and individual levels. Specifically, it explores whether the 2019 regional elections match the expectations of the second-order election model. The results show that quasi-simultaneity between regional and national elections did not entail a higher level of election congruence. In addition, while most of the predictions of the second-order election model regarding aggregate election results hold for the 2019 regional elections, our findings suggest that dual voting at the individual level does not respond to the logic of the second-order election model but rather to regional political considerations. [R]
71.6535 ČAKAR, Dario Nikić —
This paper explores the stability of coalition governments in Croatia in the period 2000-2020, starting with the premise that cabinet instability is influenced by the limited scope of coalition agreements and ineffective conflict resolution mechanisms. The paper first analyses coalition agreements with regard to their scope and content, and goes on to explore the actual processes of coalition governance that occur within the "black box" by identifying the most common conflicts and the mechanisms which are used to resolve these. The analysis uses original empirical data collected through interviews with former members of coalition governments, as well as coalition agreements, government programs, the archives of two daily newspapers, and archival databases of the government and parliament. [R, abr.]
71.6536 CAMPELLO, Daniela ; URDINEZ, Francisco —
This paper examines whether localized trade shocks from China influence Brazilians’ views on integration with the country. We test the following hypotheses: (1) as trade shocks are localized, views on trade should form at the local, rather than at the individual level, and (2) as localized trade shocks affect both workers and companies in a same region, they should also influence legislators’ views on China. Our analyses find support for both claims, but only among losers from Chinese trade. Residents and legislators from localities hurt by import shocks tend to hold negative views about economic ties with China, whereas neither residents nor legislators from localities benefitted by export shocks exhibit more positive views about the country. [R]
71.6537 CAPIBERIBE, Artionka —
This article examines the activities of cross-cultural evangelical missions among indigenous peoples in Brazil and explores how these activities fit into the policies of Jair Bolsonaro’s government. The aim is to show how these missions relate to three federal government policies that are currently threatening the existence of indigenous peoples – policies that are expressed in the moral, anti-environmental, and national security agendas. This article argues that the element connecting these different sets of interests is a notion of individual freedom that directly opposes the idea of collective rights and, therefore, represents an expression of anti-democratic values. [R]
71.6538 CAPOTESCU, Cristian —
This article studies the involvement of Western diaspora communities of Transylvanian Saxons in the humanitarian campaign for Romania during the flood disaster in 1970. It shows how the Saxons’ private relief campaigns established new forms of connectivity and exchange across the Iron Curtain through a transnational regime of care, ethnic solidarity, and charitable work. The article argues that the contingent and precarious situation of such spatially divided ethnic communities refashioned a generation of World War II refugees and migrants from “speechless” objects of humanitarian intervention into passionate advocates, effective mediators, and surprising champions of private aid giving in postwar Europe. [R]
71.6539 CARNES, Nicholas ; LUPU, Noam —
In the US, authors claim that the white working class offered unprecedented and crucial support for D. Trump in the 2016 election. We examine all academic survey data gathered around the election, along with a number of surveys from prior elections. We test four common claims about the white working class in 2016: (1) that most Trump voters were white working-class Americans; (2) that most white working-class voters supported Trump; (3) that unusually large numbers of white working-class voters switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016; and (4) that white working-class voters were pivotal to Trump’s victory in several swing states. We find that three of the four are not supported by the available data, and the other lacks crucial context that casts doubt on the idea that Trump uniquely appealed to working-class Americans. [R, abr.]
71.6540 CAROTHERS, Christopher —
A striking number of presidents and prime ministers around the world have been ousted before the end of their terms because of political fallout from corruption. Corruption-driven political change is an important global trend that signals the rising costs to politicians of engaging in and allowing corruption. Driven by citizens’ decreasing tolerance for wrongdoing and growing access to information, this trend is a counterpoint to recent fears that politicians are increasingly escaping accountability by spreading disinformation, polarizing society, or whipping up populist sentiments. This essay analyzes dozens of cases around the world and presents a case study of the South Korean protest movement that led to President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment and removal from office in 2017. [R, abr.]
71.6541 CAROTHERS, Thomas ; PRESS, Benjamin —
Authoritarian states have not been immune to the global surge of antigovernment protests. Many autocrats have faced significant challenges from the street in recent years, especially from diffuse, leaderless protest movements of the type that have confronted numerous democracies. Though protests in democratic contexts have attracted significant scrutiny, protests against authoritarian regimes have attracted less extensive analytic attention. Key questions include: How widespread are such protests? What issues usually drive them? What are the most common forms of authoritarian state response? And how frequently does mass activism provoke significant changes in authoritarian policies or leadership? [R] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6542 CARROLL, Royce ; KUBO, Hiroki —
This paper examines the dimensional complexity in voter perceptions of party left-right locations. Most of the theoretical and empirical research on electoral politics treats left-right party locations as based on a one-dimensional ideological spectrum. We measure variation in the complexity of voters’ perceptions of left-right party locations and demonstrate that the dimensionality varies widely. First, we generate a measurement of the complexity of perceived left-right party placements and apply this to data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES). This measure, based on the dimensional fits of scaled party placements, allows us to compare left-right complexity cross-nationally. We then examine several possible correlates of this cross-national variation, finding relationships with political polarization, party nationalization, and democratic experience. [R, abr.]
71.6543 CARUSO, Loris ; BLASIO, Emiliana De —
The Sardines “movement” emerged in the fall of 2019, giving itself mainly the purpose of countering the possible assertion of the right-wingers in the regional elections of 2020. The political discourse developed by this mobilization was characterized in an anti-populist and anti-fascist sense. The anti-populist register constituted the main mode of self-representation of Sardines. The political discourse of this mobilization is thus presented as, in some ways unprecedented, for an extra-institutional actor. The article addresses the following issues: (1) the formal adequacy of the category of “social movement” to define Sardines; (2) their constitution and development from November 2019 to November 2020; (3) the key elements of their political discourse; (4) the change in strategies and repertoires following the onset of the pandemic. [R]
71.6544 CASSESE, Erin C. —
Despite evidence that dehumanizing language and metaphors are found in political discourse, extant research has largely overlooked whether voters dehumanize their political opponents. Research on dehumanization has tended to focus on racial and ethnic divisions in societies, rather than political divisions. Understanding dehumanization in political contexts is important because the social psychology literature links dehumanization to a variety of negative outcomes, including moral disengagement, aggression, and even violence. In this manuscript, I discuss evidence of partisan dehumanization during the 2016 US Presidential campaign and demonstrate how a focus on dehumanization can expose new relationships between moral psychology and partisan identity. Using data from two surveys conducted in October of 2016, I show that partisans dehumanize their political opponents in both subtle and blatant ways. [R, abr.]
71.6545 CATALINAC, Amy ; MOTOLINIA, Lucia —
Research on geographically-targeted spending under closed-list proportional representation (CLPR) is characterized by debate over whether ruling parties target core supporters or swing voters. We show that when CLPR is used in multiple districts and separate competitions are conducted in each, parties can reverse the formula through which votes are converted into seats to calculate how many additional votes they need to capture an additional seat. This enables parties to rank districts according to how close they are to winning an additional seat. We then show that under divisor-based formulae, parties will find they need fewer additional votes to capture another seat in districts where they captured fewer seats (‘marginal districts’). We posit that in these systems, ruling parties will steer geographically-targeted spending toward marginal PR districts and we present evidence of this from Japan. [R]
71.6546 CATHCART, Brian —
In the decade 2008-2018, between the eruption of the phone hacking scandal and the cancellation of part two of the Leveson Inquiry, the editorial position of The Guardian on press regulation went from indifference to demanding wholesale reform, and then back to indifference and even active opposition to change. Inevitably, this entailed reversals and contradictions, yet these were not acknowledged to the newspaper’s readers, who are left with a misleading impression of continuity. This study, by an academic and journalist who campaigned for regulatory reform throughout this period, aims to shed light on The Guardian’s 360‐degree progression by reference to its editorials and other published statements. [R]
71.6547 CAVATORTA, Francesco ; AMGHAR, Samir —
This article introduces the symposium on the relationship between Islamist and Salafi parties and neo-liberal economics. Through a mix of analyses of the party manifestos and ethnographic work, this symposium unveils how Islamist and Salafi parties across the Arab world and abroad have thought about the economy, how they attempted to incorporate the Islamic economy into their discourses and practices and how they have ultimately dealt with the current economic doctrine of neo-liberalism whether in power or opposition. [R] [See also Abstr. 71.6497, 6548, 6575, 6769, 6809]
71.6548 CAVATORTA, Francesco ; RESTA, Valeria —
Breaking with a long tradition of political quietism, many Salafis in Tunisia and Egypt decided to found political parties and participate in competitive elections after the collapse of the regime. In doing so, they had to present a political program to voters, including policy proposals on economic issues. The article examines how Salafi parties dealt with economic policymaking and finds that they reluctantly engaged with it, offering contradictory and naïve policies meant to pander to the electorate. Policy-making preferences and positions on economic issues are employed to look at the degree of party institutionalization Salafi parties have. [R][See Abstr. 71.6547]
71.6549 CELEM, Gokhan ; ALTAY, Ahmet A. —
Islamism was one of a number of political ideas that had emerged in the Ottoman Empire in the 19th c. This study outlines the ideas of the Islamist movement in the Ottoman era and puts forward the agreements of differences of opinion vis-à-vis the Islamist movement during the Republican era with respect to their perspectives on the state and modernization. We argue that, contrary to the current literature claims, the organization of the Justice and Development Party did not mark a third-generation, rather, changing their discourses, the Islamists in the republican era continued their political activities within the body of the Felicity Party of the National Outlook movement. [R, abr.]
71.6550 CHAMBERS, Paul ; UFEN, Andreas, eds. —
Introduction by the editors. Articles by Paul CHAMBERS and Andreas UFEN, "Causes, effects, and forms of factionalism in Southeast Asia", 3-16; Sorpong PEOU, "Interparty and intraparty factionalism in Cambodian politics", pp. 17-38; Ulla FIONNA and Dirk TOMSA, "Changing patterns of factionalism in Indonesia: from principle to patronage", pp. 39-58; Andreas UFEN, "Clientelist and programmatic factionalism within Malaysian political parties", pp. 59-81; Robert H. TAYLOR, "The Causes of the proclivity towards factionalism in the political parties of Myanmar", pp. 82-97; Julio Cabral TEEHANKEE, " Factional dynamics in Philippine party politics, 1900-2019", pp. 98-123; Netina TAN, " Minimal factionalism in Singapore’s People’s Action Party", pp. 124-143; Paul CHAMBERS and Napisa WAITOOLKIAT, " Faction politics in an interrupted democracy: the case of Thailand", pp. 144-166; DENNIS SHOESMITH, "Party systems and factionalism in Timor-Leste", pp 167-186; Allen HICKEN and Netina TAN, "Factionalism in Southeast Asia: types, causes, and effects", pp. 187-204.
71.6551 CHAPMAN, Hannah S. —
How do autocrats build support? This study argues that autocrats create and maintain participatory technologies — elite-mass communication strategies that promote two-way interaction between citizens and leaders — to foster support. Participatory technologies provide citizens with the opportunity to have a limited voice in otherwise closed political systems. I test this theory through a series of two nationally-representative survey experiments in Russia. Results suggest that awareness of participatory technologies increases approval of President Putin and improves perceptions that there are opportunities for voice in politics. This finding departs from previous research that suggests public opinion is influenced primarily by participation. Furthermore, I demonstrate that these effects can be directly attributed to the communicative format of these strategies, not to issue resolution or leadership effects. [R, abr.]
71.6552 CHEIBUB, José Antonio ; MARTIN, Shane ; RASCH, Bjørn Erik —
Existing scholarship suggests that the need for an investiture vote — a requirement that a new government must face a parliamentary vote at some point during its formation — reduces the likelihood of a minority government. This article suggests that while real-world investiture rules can vary across several dimensions, only the investiture decision rule — which specifies the size of the majority required for a decision to be made — impacts the propensity for parties to form minority governments. Using new data on investiture rules for 26 European countries since 1946 or the first year of democracy, we find that parliamentary democracies that have an investiture requirement are not less likely to experience minority governments than those where governments come to power without an investiture vote. [R, abr.]
71.6553 CHOWDHURY, Intifar Sadiq —
In most advanced democracies, the decline in electoral turnout has been disproportionately concentrated amongst young people. This study investigates whether young Australians are turning away from the principles and processes of democracy. If so, it further enquires which of the three highly collinear time effects — age, period and cohort (APC) — best explains youth disengagement. Existing works, which focus mostly on generational effects, fail to control for the confounding age and period effects. Using survey data from 2001 to 2019 in the Australian Election Study (AES) and applying multilevel models, this study disentangles the three-time effects. The findings suggest that young Australians are no different from older people and older cohorts in their commitment to principles and both traditional and contemporary (online) processes of democracy. [R, abr.]
71.6554 CHRISTOU, George ; RASHID, Imir —
The issue of trust and control of data online has become critical for many EU citizens in an era where we are increasingly reliant on digital platforms across a plethora of everyday activities. Indeed, the future of the EU’s Digital Single Market Policy is reliant on developing trust through robust legislation that ensures explicit control of data by EU citizens. This article explores the extent to which interest groups have been able to successfully achieve their goals through actions in the EU institutional spaces that construct privacy and data-protection legislation. Specifically, it investigates the intervention of interest groups utilizing the ‘right to be forgotten’ (RTBF) in the EU General Data Protection Regulation as a case study. [R, abr.]
71.6555 CLARK, Nicholas ; ROHRSCHNEIDER, Robert —
We discuss the relevance of national attachments for European integration, reviewing the existing literature and drawing connections across the articles in this issue. We also consider that the ageing European population might be a possible explanation for why nationalism is increasingly shaping EU support especially outside the ideological extremes. Taken together with the other contributions in this issue, it is quite possible that national identity will increasingly shape the views of individuals with ideologically moderate views who in the past have supported European integration. [R]
71.6556 CLAYTON, Katherine ; FERWERDA, Jeremy ; HORIUCHI, Yusaku —
To what extent does exposure to immigration condition the types of immigrants citizens are willing to admit? Extending the conjoint approach adopted by J. Hainmueller and D. J. Hopkins ["The hidden American immigration consensus: A conjoint analysis of attitudes toward immigrants", American Journal of Political Science 59(3), 2015: 529-548], this study investigates whether the admission preferences of French natives vary based on personal exposure to immigration, as proxied by local demographics and self-reported social contact. Methodologically, we propose and apply new methods to compare attribute salience across different subgroups of respondents. We find that although an inflow of immigrants into respondents’ municipalities has a limited influence on how French natives evaluate prospective immigrants, social contact with immigrants matters. [R, abr.]
71.6557 COFFÉ, Hilde ; SCHOULTZ, Åsa von —
Our study examines the influence of various candidate characteristics (sociodemographic profile, competence and experience, issue positions, and party affiliation) on voters’ preference for a candidate, and investigates the impact of voters’ levels of political sophistication on their likelihood of considering various candidate characteristics when deciding whom to support. Using data from the 2015 Finnish National Election Study, this study is situated within the complex Finnish open list system with many candidates at display and mandatory preference voting. We find that voters mostly argue to make their choice based on candidate characteristics with direct politically relevant information such as candidate party affiliation and issue positions. Candidate sociodemographic profile has relatively little stated impact. [R, abr.]
71.6558 COHEN, Gidon ; COHEN, Sarah —
This article examines party sorting, elite cue and ideological polarization accounts of polarization dynamics. The study tests their differing expectations about trends in redistributive ideological polarization and partisan polarization in the British case using repeated cross-section and panel data. The authors reject party sorting accounts, which require ideology to be stable and changes in party support to drive partisan polarization, because they find that ideology trends with elite polarization and that ideological change causes partisan polarization. The authors reject elite cue accounts, which maintain that it is mainly partisans’ ideology that follows elite polarization, because they find virtually identical trends for initially ideologically similar non-partisans too. The study thus finds support for an ideological polarization account in which changes in elite polarization are associated with general changes in citizen redistributive ideology. [R]
71.6559 COHEN, Mollie J. ; WARNER, Zach —
A key challenge facing many large, in-person public opinion surveys is ensuring that enumerators follow fieldwork protocols. Implementing “quality control” processes can improve data quality and help ensure the representativeness of the final sample. Yet while public opinion researchers have demonstrated the utility of quality control procedures such as audio capture and geo-tracking, there is little research assessing the relative merits of such tools. Ae present new evidence on this question using data from the 2016/17 wave of the AmericasBarometer study. Results from a large classification task demonstrate that a small set of automated and human-coded variables, available across popular survey platforms, can recover the final sample of interviews that results when a full suite of quality control procedures is implemented. [R, abr.]
71.6560 COHEN-BLANKSHTAIN, Galit ; SULITZEANU-KENAN, Raanan —
Deliberative democracy fosters greater involvement of the public in policymaking. However, psychological challenges involved in eliciting policy preferences receive little attention in this context. This study addresses the implications of opportunity cost neglect (OCN) and impact bias for policy preferences. Utilizing a survey experiment among residents of peripheral towns in Israel, we examine preferences regarding investment in rail infrastructure in peripheral areas. In line with psychological studies on OCN, we find evidence that priming awareness to alternatives can de-bias OCN in policy preferences. However, this method is less effective for people who exhibit impact bias (respondents for whom the policy is new), presenting a serious challenge to the validity of policy preferences of those who are expected to be most affected by the considered policy. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6305]
71.6561 COLLITT, Samuel ; HIGHTON, Benjamin —
This article investigates how a key stratum of the partisan elite — party activists — have been positioned across time and policy issues. We examine the extent to which activists have polarized symmetrically or asymmetrically and find that only on the issue of abortion has one party’s activists (Republicans) polarized notably more than the other’s. The article also analyzes party activist proximity to the mass public’s policy preferences and finds that Democrats are consistently closer to the public on economic issues, and Republicans are consistently closer on a subset of non-economic issues. Our findings suggest the need for more nuanced theories of party activism and polarization along with providing a useful lens through which to view party electoral competition. [R]
71.6562 CONNOLLY, Jennifer M. —
The rise of the sharing economy has led to political fights between users of these platforms, local government officials, city residents, and members of the traditional taxi and hotel industries. Municipalities have crafted policies that restrict the operation of sharing economy companies in a variety of ways. However, scholars have not systematically analysed public attitudes regarding these policies. What local-level regulations of the sharing economy, if any, do citizens support? What factors explain citizen support for municipal regulation of the sharing economy? Further, given that these services are popular with travellers, what impact do local sharing economy restrictions have on tourism intentions? I analyse a series of survey questions from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) and find that a majority of Americans support some, but not all, sharing economy regulations. [R, abr.]
71.6563 CORRY, Dan —
Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, Anneliese Dodds, recently set out the first major exposition of economic policy under leader Keir Starmer. Covering a lot of ground, she gave insights into current Labour thinking on macro and micro policy. Much of the speech was aimed at emphasising the fact that Labour would be ‘responsible’, an attempt to reassure voters as well as markets. But there is plenty of room for radical approaches within this framework, so exactly what this all means for practical policy is still to be determined. [R]
71.6564 COSTA, Mia —
How do citizens want to be represented by elected officials in an era of affective polarization? Contemporary narratives about American politics argue that people embrace elite expressions of negative partisanship, above and beyond representation on policy. Using three conjoint experiments, I examine how individuals weigh the relative value of substantive representation on issues, constituency service, and partisan affect. The findings challenge the notion that Americans are primarily motivated by their affective, partisan identities and demonstrate the value of policy congruence and service responsiveness in terms of perceptions of political representation. The implication is that people evaluate elected officials in ways that we would expect them to in a healthy, functioning representative democracy, rather than one characterized by partisan animus. [R, abr.]
71.6565 COSTA, Mia ; WALLACE, Isabel —
The effect of women in politics is vitally important for the study of representation, yet evidence is mixed on the extent to which women’s presence influences individuals’ symbolic attitudes and behaviors. We use a priming survey experiment to examine how information about increased women candidates in the US affects political ambition, efficacy, and future support for women candidates. We present several different patterns across gender and partisanship. Republicans report higher political ambition after hearing about more women candidates, even when those women are running for the opposite party. Men had higher political efficacy in response to more same-party women running, but not opposite-party women. Importantly, our evidence does not support the widespread notion that women’s presence positively influences women’s political efficacy or likelihood to vote for female candidates. [R, abr.]
71.6566 COULOMBE, Maxime, et al. —
We perform a survey experiment on the issue of immigration. People are presented with a situation where public opinion is at odds with the election promise. In our control group, no information is given about public opinion. In the treatment groups, respondents are told that 55 per cent or 80 per cent of the people are against the project. When respondents are informed about the election promise but are not told about public opinion, 64 per cent say that the party should fulfill its promise. That percentage drops to 51 per cent when people are informed that a slight majority (55 per cent) are opposed to the project and to 42 per cent when they are told that a strong majority (80 per cent) are opposed. [R, abr.]
71.6567 COZZA, Joseph Francesco ; SOMER-TOPCU, Zeynep —
Political parties in parliamentary democracies have increasingly democratized their leadership selection processes, incorporating the votes of party members. Despite generating numerous headlines, there has been a relative dearth of cross-national scholarly work on the electoral effects of selectorate expansion and the causal mechanisms behind them. This study fills this gap in the literature. Using observational data from eleven parliamentary democracies, we show that parties using membership selection can expect a polling boost when compared to those using more exclusive mechanisms. However, membership selection does not affect electoral performance. Nevertheless, our crossnational analyses and results from a survey experiment from Australia suggest that incorporating members generates excitement, demonstrates an openness to new ideas, and can be a signal of leader work ethic and a commitment to the democratic process, increasing leader legitimacy. [R, abr.]
71.6568 CRAMER BROWNELL, Kathryn —
The author reviews two recently published books on J. Carter: The Election of the Evangelical: J. Carter, G. Ford, and the Presidential Contest of 1976 and Jimmy Carter and the Birth of the Marathon Media Campaign. She argues that the discussion of the 1976 election put forth in these two books contributes to our understanding of modern political realignment and polarization. [R]
71.6569 CULPEPPER, Pepper D. —
This article comments on a special issue that examines “quiet politics” and the power of business in an era of “noisy politics.” The scholarship brought together in the issue shows that the world of business has indeed changed in the decade since Quiet Politics and Business Power [Cambridge U. P., 2012] was published, but also that quiet politics as a mode of low-salience interest advocacy seems alive and well. Building on this research, the article analyzes the different ways in which the rise of populist, noisy politics challenges business, how it challenges scholars studying business power, and how it challenges the functioning of the central feedback mechanism connecting political elites to mass publics in democracies — the media. [R] [See Abstr. 71.7060]
71.6570 CULPEPPER, Pepper D. ; LEE, Taeku —
In 2017 the Australian government appointed a Royal Commission of inquiry into malfeasance in the banking sector. This article reports findings from a 2018 survey on attitudes to financial regulation and a survey experiment testing different media treatments. Attitudes on financial regulation are distinct from left-right positions on redistributive issues; we find no significant relationship between partisan identification and preferences for financial regulation. In the experimental treatment, all three frames catalysed anger and disgust from readers. However, neither of the two strong partisan frames moved policy preferences. The non-partisan frame — which included messages associated with both left and right, and which linked both parties to systemic capture by the banks — was the only article that had any effect on policy preferences, but only with non-partisan identifiers. [R, abr.]
71.6571 CURTIS, Jesse S. —
China is waging a disinformation campaign against the US-led international system. China uses disinformation to translate its economic power into Great Power prestige and to suppress external and internal criticism of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Both objectives are intended to bolster the domestic legitimacy of the party and enhance social stability. By linking stability and prestige with economic expansion, the CCP hopes to avoid the ‘Tacitus Trap’ — an existential legitimacy crisis caused by losing the confidence of the people. As a third function, disinformation also obscures Beijing’s efforts to influence and manipulate foreign policies of global actors with respect to China, thus undermining international transparency and the democratic structures and processes of target states. The US response has been ad hoc and reactive, therefore ineffectual. [R] [See Abstr. 71.6956]
71.6572 CUTTS, David ; HAUGHTON, Tim —
Using comparative data, we find that direct contact with voters is lower in CEE than elsewhere, although there are stark differences between CEE countries. Leafleting was the main form of contact, but the use of social media was higher in CEE than in Western Europe. Perennial parties are the most likely to contact citizens using personalised modes while the “accepted truth” that new entrants are more likely to use social media does not hold up. Our study shows the importance of direct contact on turnout which has significant ramifications for addressing the level of voter engagement in CEE countries. [R]
71.6573 DABROWSKI, Marcin, et al. —
EU Cohesion Policy has arguably the most tangible impact on the citizens’ environment and livelihoods and can potentially boost their attachment to the European project. Beyond the cross-national transactionalist hypothesis, Cohesion Policy spending has a local impact and may affect the lives of citizens who do not benefit directly from cross-national transactions, like education, work, investment and travel in other European countries. But what happens when a country is a net contributor to the EU’s budget receiving a relatively small amount of Cohesion Policy funding, the bulk of it being invested in poorer European territories? Building on the cases of two Dutch regions — Flevoland and Limburg — this paper investigates the extent to which the citizens are aware of Cohesion Policy interventions and how the features of communication on and implementation of Cohesion Policy affect this awareness. [R, abr.]
71.6574 DAGAN, David —
The literature on bureaucratic capacity and autonomy in American political development is focused on federal agencies, with little attention paid to the development of subnational bureaucracies whose leaders are elected. I argue that while the “policrats” who lead such agencies value their status as elected officials, it also makes them vulnerable to the charge of being mere political hacks. Using the example of district attorneys, I argue that the rise of the administrative state enhanced the potency of this threat, so that policrats increasingly had to harmonize their classic electoral, creditclaiming activity with the work of building the reputations of their bureaucracies. One solution was to create professional organizations and claim they had expertise, authority, and standards analogous to those of the traditional professions, such as medicine or the law. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6339]
71.6575 DAHER, Joseph —
Hezbollah, like other Islamic fundamentalist movements in the region, professes an “Islamic way of life” as an objective to achieve and implement in society, but its actual practices can best be understood as harmonious with — and reflective of — the nature of the capitalist environment in which it operates, despite discourses appealing to the popular classes of society. Religious fundamentalist movements should indeed not been considered as fossilized elements from the past. While they may employ symbols and narratives from earlier periods, fundamentalisms are alive, dynamic, and representative of major contemporary trends. Their emergence must thus be fully situated in the political, economic, and social context of the contemporary period. In this perspective, the article analyzes the political economy of Hezbollah and its support for neoliberal policies. [R][See Abstr. 71.6547]
71.6576 DALTON, Russell —
Political behavior research persistently questions the ability of the average citizen to make voting choices that accurately represent their political views. We argue that voters’ choices should be judged by the outcome of the choices, and not the decision-making process. The representation gap measures the policy agreement between voters and their chosen party using data from the 2014 European Election Study and the Chapel Hill Experts Survey. We consider whether the political sophistication of individual voters affects agreement levels. Negative results are rarely reported widely — but they can be important. This study finds little evidence that political interest, education, information level or even party identification substantially affect the size of the representation gap. Less and more sophisticated citizens both find ways to make voting decisions that broadly match their opinions. [R, abr.]
71.6577 DAOUST, Jean-François ; BLAIS, André ; PELOQUIN-SKULSKI, Gabrielle —
There is little research on voters who display incongruent preferences, that is, those who prefer a leader from another party than their preferred one. We address two questions. How many voters prefer a leader from another party? Do these incongruent voters vote for their preferred party or leader? We use the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) data-sets covering 83 legislative elections over a time period of 20 years (1996-2016). We find that 17% of the electorate typically prefer a leader from another party. In that group, the vast majority (80%) end up supporting their preferred party while 20% of voters support their preferred leader. We find that partisans and those located at the extremes of the political spectrum tend to have more congruent preferences. [R, abr.]
71.6578 DARWIN, Rizkika Lhena ; HARYANTO, M. —
Studies of women candidates and social media campaigns in many countries around the world identify an increasing trend towards personalization in elections. This article examines the pattern of personalization at the local level in the world’s largest democratic Muslim country, Indonesia, where this important phenomenon has not yet been explored. The most interesting element of our findings is the characteristic of personalization in social media campaigns through the use of Islamic personalization. This article explains the motives and personalities of women candidates who used Islamic personalization on their social media campaigns in local parliamentary elections in Indonesia. For female candidates, Islamic personalization is a campaign strategy to get closer to voters and, at the same time, to create a pious image for them. [R, abr.]
71.6579 DASSONNEVILLE, Ruth ; KOSTELKA, Filip —
Recent publications argue that the traditional gender gap in voting has decreased or reversed in many democracies. Building on prior studies, this article hypothesizes that although women participate at the same or higher rates than men in national elections, they participate less in supranational elections. The authors investigate this possibility empirically by analyzing the evolution of the gender gap in voter turnout in elections to the EP. The article makes three important contributions. First, it shows the presence and stability of the traditional gender gap in EP elections. Secondly, it finds that gender differences in political interest are the main source of this gender gap. Thirdly, these gender differences in political interest are, in turn, context-dependent. They are strongly associated with cultural gender differences, which are captured through differences in boys’ and girls’ maths scores. [R, abr.]
71.6580 DAVIES, Emmerich ; GIFT, Thomas ; LASTRA‐ANADÓN, Carlos X. —
Global Performance Assessments (GPAs), which rank countries on a range of policy areas, can encourage domestic demands for policy reform. Yet can they also affect at what level of government — local or national — citizens want reform to take place? We theorize that, by emphasizing how countries fare relative to others, GPAs prompt citizens to view domestic policy underperformance as a “national problem requiring national solutions.” This increases calls for vesting policymaking authority in the hands of central governments. We argue that this effect should be most salient when underperformance is presented as a threat to a country’s security because it induces citizens to “rally ‘round the flag.” [R, abr.]
71.6581 DEHDARI, Sirus H. ; MERILÄINEN, Jaakko ; OSKARSSON, Sven —
If two elections are held at the same day, why do some people choose to vote in one but to abstain in another? We argue that selective abstention is driven by the same factors that determine voter turnout. Our empirical analysis focuses on Sweden where the (aggregate) turnout gap between local and national elections has been about 2-3%. Rich administrative register data reveal that people from higher socio-economic backgrounds, immigrants, women, older individuals, and people who have been less geographically mobile are less likely to selectively abstain. [R]
71.6582 DENTLER, Klara ; GSCHWEND, Thomas ; HÜNLICH, David —
We question the growing consensus in the literature that European Americans behave as a homogenous pan-ethnic coalition of voters. Seemingly below the radar of scholarship on voting groups in American politics, we identify a group of white voters that behaves differently from others: German Americans, the largest ethnic group, regionally concentrated in the ‘Swinging Midwest’. Using county level voting returns, ancestry group information from the American Community Survey (ACS), current survey data and historical census data going back as early as 1910, we provide evidence for a partisan and a non-partisan pathway that motivated German Americans to vote for Trump in 2016: a historically grown association with the Republican Party and an acquired taste for isolationist attitudes that mobilizes non-partisan German Americans to support isolationist candidates. [R, abr.]
71.6583 DESAI, Zuheir ; LEE, Alexander —
Electronic voting technology is often proposed as translating voter intent to vote totals better than alternative systems such as paper ballots. We suggest that electronic voting machines (EVMs) can also alter vote choice, and, in particular, the way in which voters register anti-system sentiment. This paper examines the effects of the introduction of EVMs in India, the world’s largest democracy, using a difference-in-differences methodology that takes advantage of the technology’s gradual introduction. We find that EVMs are associated with dramatic declines in the incidence of invalid votes, and corresponding increases in vote for minor candidates. [R, abr.]
71.6584 DIWAKAR, Rekha —
This article explores the origins and consequences of India’s regional parties and subnationalism, focusing and expanding on the key arguments made by Prerna Singh and Adam Ziegfeld in their books. According to Singh, when political leaders promote an inclusive form of subnationalism, it creates a feeling of cohesive solidarity across the region, which helps to achieve superior social welfare outcomes in the Indian states. Ziegfeld provides an elite-centered explanation for the emergence and success of India’s regional parties, and considers Indian politics to be dominated by clientelist relationships between parties and voters, which leads to delivery of particularistic rather than public goods. The article also discusses two key themes emerging from the books relating to the importance of subnational versus national identity, and the significance of interests versus ideas in shaping Indian politics and public policy. [R, abr.]
71.6585 DODEIGNE, Jérémy ; PILET, Jean-Benoit —
This article offers a comparative analysis of electoral intra-party competition in four countries — Belgium, the Czech Republic, Finland and Luxembourg — based on an original data-set of 79,621 candidates and 3150 party lists covering the [period] (1994-2017). We use two measures to describe the nature of intra-party competition over time, across countries and across party lists: a Gini coefficient and a measure of the effective number of candidates. First, in terms of change over time (personalization) — contra the presidentialization thesis — there is no concentration of intra-party competition around a few leaders over time. Second, in terms of the dynamics of concentration of votes (personalized politics), the results suggest a move beyond the clear-cut divide found in the literature between centralized and decentralized forms of personalized politics. [R] [See Abstr. 71.6629]
71.6586 DORNSCHNEIDER, Stephanie ; TODD, Jennifer —
Unionists and nationalists remain polarized in their political choices, increasingly so since Brexit. Does this signal increasing and dangerous division? Or have the decades of peace and agreed institutions changed the tenor of discussion in Northern Ireland? In this article, we examine the ways community relations, political division and contention are discussed by focusing on the expression of everyday sentiment among unionists and nationalists in a mixed Northern Irish town. Theoretically, it has been argued that positive sentiment raises hopes for compromise and leaves room for discussion, while negative sentiment closes off deliberation and compromise. Based on interviews, we first conduct a sentiment analysis that identifies positive versus negative sentiment expressed by the respondents, focusing on themes addressing Irish unity, unionism, Brexit, as well as personal and community life. [R, abr.]
71.6587 DOSHAY, Harris —
When facing state-backed repression, why do groups sometimes band together in solidarity and sometimes fail to do so? This study contributes to the literature on repression by studying how and why repressed groups react to repression, focusing on how registered civil society groups affect solidarity. Specifically, I trace the impact of the Chinese Communist Party’s Cross Demolition Campaign on patterns of solidarity and victim blaming among Christian Churches. I further demonstrate conditions under which repressed group members become more fragmented and scattered rather than more unified. Based on evidence from sixty-four elite and mass interviews, I find that registered groups’ legibility constrains their members, thus enabling dynamics of victim-blaming that hinder solidarity and further empowering the autocrat to divide and conquer potential opposition. [R ]
71.6588 DOST, Meredith ; ENOS, Ryan ; HOCHSCHILD, Jennifer —
The authors look at the crucial segment of American voters who have changed their views about Donald Trump since the 2016 presidential election. Using two original surveys, they find that attitudes on race and immigration, populism and authoritarianism, and the nation’s and their own economic well-being are all associated with loyalty to and switching from this divisive president. [R]
71.6589 DUMOUCHEL, David —
Cet article mobilise des données de sondage pour évaluer l’évolution de l’opinion publique en regard de la crise des réfugiés, une tempête médiatique survenue durant la campagne fédérale canadienne de 2015. Les résultats montrent que la période de tempête médiatique a influencé les attitudes citoyennes à l’égard de certains cadres liés à la question et que l’effet a persisté jusqu’à la fin de la campagne. Ils révèlent par ailleurs que certaines opinions politiques en viennent à constituer des éléments déterminants de l’intention de vote et du choix de vote final. Ces éléments de preuve montrent que les citoyens sont réceptifs aux tempêtes médiatiques et constituent un exemple concret de la manière dont la logique de marché médiatique devient parfois prépondérante dans les rapports de force qui caractérisent la sphère publique. [R, abr.]
71.6590 DUNAISKI, Maurice —
Voting in one election increases one’s propensity to vote in the future. It remains unclear, however, whether this pattern holds when voting is compulsory — as is the case in a quarter of all democracies. Is compulsory voting habit-forming? I address this question using a regression discontinuity design and administrative turnout data from Brazil, where voting is voluntary at age 16 and compulsory at age 18. I find no evidence that compulsory voting instils voting habits. Instead, the evidence points to a first-time compulsory voting boost, which gradually dissipates as voters grow older. I show that targeted mobilisation of first-time compulsory voters is a plausible mechanism behind the turnout boost. Alternative explanations find less support in the data. [R, abr.]
71.6591 DYRHAUGE, Helene —
Climate leadership evolves over time to become a political myth, however, which governments use in their policy strategies. Changes in governments lead to new climate and energy strategies that affect the respective countries’ leadership positions. This article links the growing literature on environmental/climate leadership and the political myth literature. Specifically, it draws on the environmental/climate leadership framework to analyse the connection between political myths and the climate and energy policy strategies of governments to understand how the changing interpretation of the political myth influences leadership. The article uses Denmark as a case study because of the consensus in the literature on it being a climate and energy policy pioneer. This article analyses how Danish governments interpret the political myth of Danish climate and energy pioneership and how their policies influence the Danish leadership position. [R, abr.]
71.6592 ELLENBROEK, Victor ; MEIJERS, Maurits J. ; KROUWEL, André —
As scholars explore opportunities for democratic renewal, the potential of ballot structures to improve the quality of representation has been largely neglected. We argue that expressive ballots can improve the congruence of political preferences between voters and their vote choice and, subsequently, decrease parliamentary polarization. Recognizing that voters’ political preferences are more complex than a dichotomous party-vote allows, we propose the ‘assembly ballot’, which allows voters to choose their ‘ideal parliament’ by distributing 150 parliamentary seats across all participating parties. To assess the consequences of the assembly ballot for ideological congruence and parliamentary composition, we conducted a survey experiment with over 16,000 respondents around the 2017 Dutch parliamentary elections in which respondents cast a vote in a mock-election using the assembly ballot or a closed-list PR ballot. [R, abr.]
71.6593 ENGELHARDT, Andrew M. —
The conventional wisdom is that racial attitudes, by forming through early socialization processes, are causally prior to most things political, including whites’ party identifications. Yet a broad literature demonstrates that partisanship can shape mass attitudes. The author argues that this influence extends even to presumptively fundamental predispositions like racial attitudes. The study applies cross-lagged models to panel data from the 1990s and 2000s to demonstrate that whites align their racial attitudes with their party loyalties. The results demonstrate that partisanship has a more pronounced influence in the latter time period, which is consistent with a view that changes in the political context can make partisanship a more likely causal force on other attitudes. Racial concerns not only provide a foundation for political conflict: my results reveal that political processes can increase or decrease racial animus. [R]
71.6594 EVANS, Jocelyn ; IVALDI, Gilles —
This paper examines the relationship between immigration and populist radical right (PRR) support, based on an analysis of the contextual effects of immigrant presence on Front National vote in France in 2017. Using a unique set of survey data geolocalising respondents at the subcommunal level, it finds evidence for the existence of a curvilinear “halo effect,” with substantial increases in the probability of PRR vote in areas surrounding communities with significantly higher-than-average immigrant populations, and independent of other socio-economic context, as well as individual socio-demographic characteristics. Most importantly, a path analysis confirms the presence of individual attitudinal mediators of this halo effect on PRR vote, thus testing the foundation of the halo, namely that the contextual effects of immigrant presence act on attitudes which drive PRR support. [R, abr.]
71.6595 FAGAN, E. J. ; McGEE, Zachary A. ; THOMAS, Herschel F. —
To what extent do political parties have an effect on the policy-related activity of interest groups? Drawing from ideas of conflict expansion and the structure of extended party networks, we argue that political parties are able to pull interest groups into more policy conflicts than they otherwise would be involved in. We posit that parties are able to draw interest groups to be active outside of established issue niches. We suggest that several mechanisms — shared partisan electoral incentives, reciprocity, identification with the means, and cue-taking behavior — lead groups to participate in more diverse political conflicts. By linking data on interest group bill positions and the policy content of legislation, we generate a novel measure of 158 interest groups’ alignment with political parties. [R, abr.]
71.6596 FAROLE, Safia Abukar —
How does support for opposition parties grow in dominant party systems? Most scholarship on the rise of competitive elections in dominant party regimes focuses on elite defections from the ruling party and coordination by opposition parties as key explanations, but there is less focus on how politics at the local level contributes to opposition victories. This article argues that effective service delivery in local government helps opposition parties grow support in local elections. Examining the case of the Democratic Alliance (DA) in South Africa, this article provides a systematic analysis of local elections and opposition party performance. This article shows that in the areas where it is the incumbent party, support for the DA grows as the delivery of basic services to non-white households improves.[R, abr.]
71.6597 FELDMANN, Magnus ; MORGAN, Glenn —
This article analyzes business power in the context of noisy politics by comparing business involvement in two British referendum campaigns: one about membership in the European Communities in 1975, and the Brexit referendum about European Union membership in 2016. By exploring these two contexts, the article seeks to identify the conditions under which business elites can and cannot be effective in a context of noisy politics. Three key factors are identified as determinants of business influence during periods of noisy politics: the incentives to get directly involved in noisy politics; the legitimacy of business involvement; and, finally, the capacity to act in a cohesive way. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.7060]
71.6598 FERREIRA DA SILVA, Frederico ; GARZIA, Diego ; De ANGELIS, Andrea —
Partisan dealignment has been frequently advanced as a pivotal driver of the personalization of voting behavior. As voters’ long-term attachments with parties have eroded, it is argued that partisanship has lost importance relative to short-term factors, like voters’ evaluations of party leaders. Such theoretical reasoning has been applied recurrently in research dedicated to explaining vote choice. However, we hypothesize that dealignment can downplay partisanship’s impact vis-à-vis leaders in the same way regarding turnout decisions. This article demonstrates the importance of voters’ evaluations of party leaders in their probability to turn out in parliamentary elections through a novel data set pooling 52 national election surveys from 13 Western European parliamentary democracies between 1974 and 2016. The results confirm the increasing relevance of leaders in explaining turnout decisions and a decline of partisanship’s mobilizing ability. [R, abr.][See Abstr. 71.6629]
71.6599 FERRER, Joshua —
It is commonly believed that a norm of consensus-based election reform exists in New Zealand. However, this belief has yet to be tested with systematic study of changes to the democratic rules of the game. This article empirically analyzes the extent to which partisan and restrictive election rules have been proposed and enacted since passage of the Electoral Act 1956. Using a novel matrix of election lawmaking, a wealth of primary textual sources, and interviews with key actors, the data show clear evidence that election reforms are routinely partisan and have occasionally curtailed democratic participation. An analysis of election lawmaking by political party reveals that Labour is responsible for most partisan election reforms, whereas National has passed most demobilising enactments. These trends extend to proposed members’ bills and across multiple governments. [R, abr.]
71.6600 FOSTER, Chase ; FRIEDEN, Jeffry —
European support for integration is shaped by a range of economic, cultural, and political factors. However, in recent decades, scholars have argued that utilitarian calculations have become less important as European integration has advanced, and political entrepreneurs have mobilized nationalist identities. We analyze 24 years of responses to the Eurobarometer (1995-2018) to assess the influence of economic factors on public attitudes toward European integration. We find strong evidence that utilitarian factors are important across the entire panel. The performance of the macro-economy, as measured by unemployment, and an individual’s position in the labor market, are consistent predictors of public support for and satisfaction with the European Union. Collective identity is also associated with attitudes toward the European Union. [R, abr.]
71.6601 FREIRE, André —
The 2015-2019 left-wing government alliance in Portugal merits attention for several reasons, of which four stand out. First, because, if it worked well, it may offer a solution to the crisis affecting social-democratic parties by pushing them back to the left. Second, because it may offer the radical left greater influence. Third, because existing studies offering comprehensive overviews of the Portuguese case tend to be descriptive in nature. Fourth, because existing studies that are more analytical and explanatory in nature tend to be rather limited in their scope. This study offers an original contribution in that it uses empirical data and takes a comprehensive, analytical and explanatory approach. We argue that the crisis was an important factor in changing old patterns of coalition politics on the Left in Portugal, both because it brought the socialists and radical left parties together in government, and because these changes were very important in guiding the socialists to shift in their policy orientations. [R, abr.]
71.6602 FRIDKIN, Kim L., et al. —
The first presidential debate of 2016 was historic along a number of dimensions, including the first woman general election candidate and the first general election candidate in history with no political or military experience. Given the presence of the first woman nominee of a major party, along with dramatic gender differences in support for the candidates, we focus on the role of gender in shaping people’s emotional responses to candidate messaging during the debate. Through the use of a controlled experiment, we measure changes in attitudes after exposure to the debate. In addition, we utilize facial expression software to explore real-time reaction to the candidates during the debate. We find that men and women respond differently to candidates’ messaging during the debate and these emotional responses influence post-debate evaluations. [R, abr.]
71.6603 FRIEDMAN, Avital ; FRIEDBERG, Chen —
Personalization of politics describes a process in which the power of individual politicians rises, ostensibly at the expense of the parties. This is manifested, among other ways, by the manner in which politicians use parliamentary tools. We focus on one such tool, the private member bill, assessing whether its use necessarily expresses personal behavior, which weakens the party, as suggested in the literature — or not. To test this, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the way Israeli legislators use private member bills in the Knesset, which is regarded as an indicator of personalized politics. We found that partisan-oriented behavior can be found even when using such a highly personal tool. This suggests that personalized politics does not always weaken the party. We also examined under which conditions Knesset members demonstrate partisan-oriented behavior while using private member bills. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6629]
71.6604 GAASENDAM, Christiaan Reinier ; ABTS, Koen ; MEULEMAN, Bart —
We investigate the electoral decline of the Flemish social democratic party SP.A by analysing the intraparty (in)congruence in opinion structure using a unique pooled dataset that contains party elites, members and voters in Flanders-Belgium. We combine two complementary approaches on incongruence: attitudinal and ideological congruence. A hypothesis derived from post-Marxism is formulated in terms of attitudinal congruence and tested using pairwise means comparisons, while hypotheses from cleavage theory are formulated in terms of ideological incongruence and tested empirically using Latent Class Analysis. Results show that party elites predominantly adhere to a left-universalistic ideology while left-particularists have left the party en masse, confirming the realignment thesis of cleavage theory and rejecting expectations from post-Marxist theory. [R, abr.]
71.6605 GABER, Ivor —
The Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHCR) investigation into anti‐Semitism in the Labour Party, the virtual disavowal of the report by Jeremy Corbyn, his subsequent suspension from and then reinstatement to the party and then his exclusion from the Parliamentary Labour Party, raise issues far wider than just the EHRC’s legalistic and limited investigation. [R]
71.6606 GADZHIMURADOVA, Gyulnara ; RABAR, Lujain —
The article emphasizes the importance of women’s participation in the socio-political life of country. For most countries in different parts of the world, including in the Arab-Muslim world, gender equality remains unrealized. Nevertheless, the understanding of the need for women’s participation in public and political life is becoming increasingly clear. Equal representation of women in local governments, legislative and representative bodies is directly related to the economic and socio-political sustainable development of countries. The authors use the examples of Tunisia and Lebanon, which on one hand belong to the countries of the Arab world, and on the other hand, adhere to secular principles of government at the legislative level to analyze the historical development of women’s issues in countries where religion and politics are intertwined. [R, abr.]
71.6607 GALANTI, Maria Tullia ; SARACINO, Barbara —
In the year of the pandemic, an unprecedented number of temporary advisory units (consisting of a wide range of experts) emerged in the Italian policy-making landscape to advise the government on ‘crisis management’ in different policy areas — attracting vast media attention. And yet, to date, very little is known about the actual role and composition of these bodies. Our article bridges this gap, mapping these ‘task forces’ so as to understand: (1) their functions within policy-making during the pandemic; and (2) who are the experts sitting on these bodies and what expertise they bring to them. The analysis shows that the new advisory units were scarcely formalized, visible or transparent, and that (with some exceptions) they lacked influence. As for their components, a two-step cluster analysis allowed us to identify three ideal-types of experts — the mediator, the interpreter and the scientific expert — ultimately bringing a mix of skills to these exceptional advisory boards. [R] [See Abstr. 71.7027]
71.6608 GARNETT, Holly Ann ; GROGAN, Sean —
How accessible are polling locations in Canada? This article explores, for the first time in the Canadian context, the distance that voters may travel to get to their polling stations. It assembles a new set of data from the province of Ontario, mapping the distance between polling locations and a representative point in the polling division, using a variety of measures, including walking, driving and public transit times. It estimates the relationship between these distances and travel times and socio-demographic characteristics of each polling division, finding noteworthy relationships between these distances and the percentage of minority populations (both immigrant and Indigenous) in the polling division. This article also presents a potential negative, but nonlinear, relationship between distances and travel times and turnout. [R, abr.]
71.6609 GARZ, Marcel ; MARTIN, Gregory J. —
How does news about the economy influence voting decisions? We isolate the effect of the information environment from the effect of change in the underlying economic conditions themselves by taking advantage of left‐digit bias. We show that unemployment figures crossing a round‐number “milestone” cause a discontinuous increase in the amount of media coverage devoted to unemployment conditions, and we use this discontinuity to estimate the effect of attention to unemployment news on voting, holding constant the actual economic conditions on the ground. Milestone effects on incumbent US governor vote shares are large and notably asymmetric: Bad milestone events hurt roughly twice as much as good milestone events help. [R]
71.6610 GARZIA, Diego ; FERREIRA DA SILVA, Frederico —
Existing research has begun to tackle the electoral consequences of affective polarization through the lens of negative partisanship. However, not equal attention has been paid to voters’ polarized opinions toward political leaders and their impact on electoral behavior. This paper offers a comparative, longitudinal assessment of the relationship between negativity towards party leaders and vote choice in multi-party systems. We develop our negative personalization hypothesis and test it empirically on an original pooled dataset featuring 109 national election surveys from 14 Western European parliamentary democracies collected over the last six decades. Our findings confirm the existence of a robust relationship between negative party-leader evaluations and vote choice. [R, abr.]
71.6611 GELBER, Katharine —
In this paper I develop a systemic discrimination approach to defining a narrowly construed category of ‘hate speech’, as speech that harms to a sufficient degree to warrant government regulation. This is important due to the lack of definitional clarity, and the extraordinarily wide usage, of the term. This article extends current literature on how hate speech can harm by identifying under what circumstances speakers have the capacity to harm, and under what circumstances targets are vulnerable to harm. It also shows how the capacity to harm can be mobile and involve the construction of new targets. Finally, it bridges the gap between conceptual understandings of hate speech and policy designed to regulate it. [R]
71.6612 GIANI, Marco —
Because the prejudice of the ingroup builds into fear of the outgroup, jihadist terrorism is expected to strengthen the politicized link between security and immigration. I use a causal inference in a clustered cross-country analysis to test the simultaneous short-run causal impact of the jihadist threat on security fear and ethnic prejudice of the public in Israel, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, France, and Germany. In line with common wisdom, jihadist attacks significantly increase security fear. Against it, jihadist attacks non-significantly decrease ethnic prejudice. This empirical pattern holds in across different types of immigration attitudes, ethnic groups, intervals of time and terrorist events, and is robust to placebo treatments, placebo policy preferences, fake and failed terror attacks. [R, abr.]
71.6613 GOOT, Murray —
None of the polls predicted the winner of the 2019 Australian election, the first such failure since 1993 when all the polls started reporting a two-party preferred (2PP) vote estimate of the vote share as well as the parties’ first preferences. But the idea that the polls had enjoyed a very good run until 2019 is misleading: from 1993 to 2016, a fifth had predicted the wrong winner. This paper examines the performance of the polls against several measures: the outcome; margins of error; size of the errors; and estimates of the gap between the Liberal-National Party (LNP) and Labor. It shows that about a third of the estimates of the 2PP vote, Labor’s first preferences, and the LNP’s first preferences, involved errors greater than those attributable to sampling error. [R]
71.6614 GÖRTZ, Carl ; DAHL, Viktor —
Recent studies directing attention to how people perceive and define politics have provided valuable contributions to our knowledge of what people do and do not think of as politics. Taken together, the results suggest that individuals’ conceptualisations of politics tend to vary. Considerably less is known, however, about how conceptualisations are related to behaviour. This study aims to fill that gap, by testing the hypothesis that those with a wider conception of what constitutes politics are also more likely to participate in political activities. Drawing on data from a survey administered to students at a Swedish University, the key result shows a clear and positive correlation between conceptualisations of politics and political participation, suggesting that the more issues that people perceive as politics, the more likely it is that they are involved in varieties of political participation. [R, abr.]
71.6615 GRANT, Zack P. —
When do radical parties gain support? Previous studies cite the economy and mainstream party ideological convergence as important. Responding to earlier inconsistent findings, I provide evidence for an interactive approach. Anti-system parties succeed when mainstream parties are simultaneously presiding over an ailing economy and failing to provide the diversity of political opinion for the electorate to meaningfully challenge the policies associated with this malaise, through which dissatisfaction with the status quo could otherwise be channeled. Two studies support this “crisis and convergence” model. At the aggregate-level, the anti-system vote is strongest during times of negative economic growth and widespread mainstream party ideological de-polarization. [R, abr.]
71.6616 GRAVELLE, Timothy B. —
Recent events have placed a spotlight on Muslim-majority relations in Australia, yet research on majority-group Australians’ attitudes toward Muslims is scarce. Drawing on recent survey data augmented with local census data and a web-scraped listing of Australian mosques, and using the tools of multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) and multi-group structural equation modelling (MGSEM), this article seeks to explain Islamophobia in Australia. It finds that political party identification, contact with Muslims, and the local prevalence of Muslims all shape Islamophobic attitudes among majority-group Australians. Notably, the effects of intergroup contact and local context vary across different segments of the Australian electorate, with contact and context exerting greater effects among supporters of the Australian Labor Party compared to the Liberal Party-National Party coalition. [R]
71.6617 GREEN, Elliott —
Recent literature suggests that African Presidents tend to target co-ethnics with patronage, especially in non-democracies. Coupled with evidence on the role of incentives in driving ethnic identity change, I propose that a change in the ethnic identity of the President should lead to an increase in the proportion of people identifying with the President’s ethnic group. I use survey data from fourteen African countries with Presidential transitions to show that ethnic Presidential change leads to an upwards shift in the percentage of respondents identifying with the new ruling ethnic group in nondemocracies, and that this shift increases with the level of autocracy. I also show that countries where citizens perceive more ethnic favoritism see higher levels of ethnic switching. [R, abr.]
71.6618 GREENFELD, Liah —
Nationalism lies at the root of national and international political institutions, including the state and civil society; political values of freedom, equality, and human rights; the characteristic forms political participation in nations takes, be it the grassroot work of gradual reform, motivated by rational interest in improving the conditions of one’s immediate community or wars, revolutions, and ideologically-inspired protest movements; and the specifically nationalist discontent behind ideological politics, [etc.]. These general considerations, derived from the historically-based analysis of comparative politics, are connected to the protest movements of the last decade, stressing the complex, double-helix manner in which nationalism affects political action: directly, by translating ways of thinking into ways of acting, and indirectly, through the characteristic psychological discomfort which makes certain strata of society perennially dissatisfied with their surroundings. [R, abr.] [First article of a thematic issue on "The revolution will be televised: a decade of global protest". See also Abstr. 71.6500, 6508, 6541, 6637, 6670, 6697, 6710, 6778, 7012, 7076, 7079]
71.6619 GRIFFIN, John D. ; KIEWIET DE JONGE, Chad ; VELASCOGUACHALLA, Vania Ximena —
This article elaborates relative deprivation theory to a societal level to argue that political unrest is rooted in the polarization of citizens’ grievance judgments, rather than the mean level of societal grievance. Using data from twelve cross-national survey projects, it examines the relationship between citizen polarization and political protest in eighty-four democracies and semi-democracies from 1977 to 2010. The study finds that countries with more polarized citizens are more likely to experience nonviolent protest. Protests are most likely in countries where average citizen grievances are low but citizens are polarized, which is consistent with the elaborated theoretical expectations of relative deprivation theory. [R]
71.6620 GROFMAN, Bernard ; CERVAS, Jonathan —
We consider the desirability of ZIP codes as the basis for configuring congressional districts. It is likely that voters lack knowledge of ZIP code boundaries. Second, ZIP codes may not coincide with existing political subunit boundaries, such as cities or counties. Thus, using ZIP codes would add yet another layer of complexity to districting. Third, ZIP codes do not perfectly coincide with larger census units, such as tracts, or even with smaller units such as census block-groups. Fourth, we find the empirical evidence offered by J. A. Curiel and T. Steelman [“Redistricting Out Representation: Democratic Harms in Splitting Zip Codes", ibid. 17(4), 2018: 328-353; Abstr. 69.5006] that ZIP code splits are a major aspect of the ability of voters to identify their legislator and engage in political communications with them to be less than fully convincing. [R, abr.]
71.6621 GROSS, Martin ; KRAUSS, Svenja —
This paper analyses the commonalities and differences in coalition agreements in the German multi-level system at the national, regional and local level. From a legal jurisdiction perspective, one would expect that there are major differences across political levels in the topics covered in the agreements. From a multi-level governance perspective, however, one would additionally expect that government parties also devote their attention to policy domains that lie outside their realm of legislative decisionmaking. We take Germany as a prime example of a political system characterised by joint decision-making within cooperative federalism. Combining data from the Political Documents Archive (www.polidoc.net) with newly gathered data from the Local Manifesto Project (LMP; www.localpartymanifestos.de), we analyse nearly 200 coalition agreements at the national, regional and local level in Germany by applying quantitative text-analysis techniques. [R, abr.]
71.6622 GUNDELACH, Birte ; KALTE, Deborah —
Research on political consumerism documents a persistent reversed gender gap, as women boycott and buycott products more often than men. Previous efforts to explain the reversed gender gap rely on classical theoretical models developed to illuminate gender differences in political participation in general. Accounting for socio‐economic and situational factors as well as socialization leaves a significant amount of the reversed gender gap unexplained, though. Adhering to recent empirical evidence of personality as an important factor influencing political behavior, we argue that gender differences in personality traits could provide an alternative explanation to account for gender disparities in political consumerism. We use original survey data specially designed to measure political consumerism in Switzerland, which also include the Big Five model of personality. [R, abr.
71.6623 HAASS, Felix ; OTTMANN, Martin —
The authors argue that power-sharing governments serve as instruments for rebel elites to access state resources. This access allows elites to allocate state resources disproportionately to their regional power bases, particularly the settlement areas of rebel groups’ ethnic constituencies. To test this proposition, the authors link information on rebel groups in powersharing governments in post-conflict countries in Africa to information about ethnic support for rebel organizations. They combine this information with sub-national data on ethnic groups’ settlement areas and data on night light emissions to proxy for sub-national variation in resource investments. Implementing a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, the authors show that regions with ethnic groups represented through rebels in the power-sharing government exhibit higher levels of night light emissions than regions without such representation. [R, abr.]
71.6624 HADZIC, Dino ; TAVITS, Margit —
How does wartime violence shape post-war women’s representation? Does past violence make women more or less likely to run for office? And if they do run, are they getting elected? This article argues that violence influences women’s representation in contrasting ways at these two stages. In wartime, women have more opportunities to gain leadership skills, which likely increases the number of women running for office after the war. However, past violence also increases threat perceptions among voters. This, combined with gender stereotypes about male and female politicians, likely reduces voter support for female candidates. Using preand post-war electoral and wartime violence data at the municipal level from Bosnia, the authors present evidence that is consistent with their argument. [R, abr.]
71.6625 HALL, Andrew B. ; YODER, Jesse ; KARANDIKAR, Nishant —
We use nationwide deed-level records on home foreclosures to examine the effects of economic distress on electoral outcomes and individual voter turnout. County-level difference-in-differences estimates show that counties that suffered larger increases in foreclosures did not punish or reward members of the incumbent president’s party more than less affected counties. Linking the Ohio voter file to individual foreclosures, difference-in-differences estimates show that individuals whose homes were foreclosed on were less likely to turn out, rather than being mobilized. However, in 2016 counties more exposed to foreclosures supported Trump at substantially higher rates. [R, abr.]
71.6626 HARKNESS, Kristen A. ; DeVORE, Marc R. —
During revolutions, strategic interactions among civilian policy-makers, armed forces, and opposition groups shape political outcomes — most important, whether a regime stands or falls. Students from advanced industrial democracies frequently find these dynamics counterintuitive, even after completing readings and engaging in traditional instruction methods. We therefore sought to improve pedagogical outcomes by designing a simulation based on scenarios similar to those witnessed during the Arab Spring and Ukraine’s Euromaidan Revolution. We divided students into four teams representing the regime, the armed forces, and two distinct groups of anti-regime dissidents. Rules were designed to incorporate the best recent scholarship on each category of actors’ behavior, such as the probability of military units defecting to protesters and the ability of riot police to repress urban uprisings. [R, abr.]
71.6627 HARTEVELD, Eelco —
Affective polarization, or antipathy between the supporters of opposing political camps, is documented to be on the rise in the United States and elsewhere. At the same time, there are limits to our understanding of this phenomenon in multiparty contexts. How do citizens draw the line between ‘ingroups’ and ‘outgroups’ in fragmented contexts with multiple parties? Answering this question has been hampered by a relative lack of data on citizens’ views towards compatriots with opposing political views outside the US. This study is based on original data collection, measuring citizens’ evaluations of various political and non-political outgroups among a population-representative sample of 1071 Dutch citizens. These data allow to study the extent and configuration of affective polarization in the highly fragmented context of the Netherlands. [R, abr.]
71.6628 HATEMI, Peter K. ; OJEDA, Christopher —
Most of what is known regarding political socialization treats parent-child concordance as evidence of transmission. This direct-transmission approach remains agnostic regarding how socialization occurs, whether traits have a role in a child’s ability to identify and understand their parent’s values or their motivation to adopt their parents’ values. This article advances a perception-adoption approach to unpack these microprocesses of socialization. The authors test their model using three independent studies in the US that together comprise 4,852 parent-child dyads. They find that the transmission of partisan orientations from parent to child occurs less than half the time, which is qualitatively different from the generally held view. More importantly, the findings provide a greater understanding of how key predictors facilitate the political socialization process. [R, abr.]
71.6629 HELBOE PEDERSEN, Helene ; RAHAT, Gideon —
Our aim is to propose guidelines for the analysis of political personalization and personalized politics in general and for behavioural personalization in particular. The first guideline is based on our understanding that personalization comes at the cost of party politics. It suggests that in order to classify politics as more or less personalized, we must compare it to an alternative party-oriented politics. Based on a synthesis of existing theoretical work, the second guideline suggests three analytical dimensions to clarify the multidimensional concept of personalization: arena, level and character. Arena refers to where personalization takes place; level refers to whose power or independence is changing; and character refers to how personalization is manifested. Furthermore, we present the contributions of this symposium and explain how they follow the two guidelines and advance our understanding and knowledge of behavioural political personalization. [R] [Introduction to a thematic issue of a symposium on "Personalized politics", edited by the authors. See also Abstr. 71.6472, 6520, 6585, 6598, 6603]
71.6630 HELLMEIER, Sebastian —
Authoritarian regimes are frequent targets of international pressure in the form of economic sanctions or threats thereof. Existing research shows that foreign interventions can carry several unintended consequences for politics and the economy in the targeted countries. One of the side effects of such interventions is boosting support for incumbent autocrats. Public demonstrations in support of embattled leaders are one aspect of this dynamic. This article investigates the link between foreign pressure and domestic mobilization in favor of ruling autocrats. It is argued that pressure simultaneously increases regime supporters’ willingness to participate in rallies and the regime’s demand to display and even overstate regime support. Foreign pressure facilitates mobilization as autocrats can fuel nationalist sentiments and frame foreign interventions as an attack on the nation as a whole. [R, abr.]
71.6631 HERRMANN, Michael ; SHIKANO, Susumu —
Numerous studies document that better-looking candidates win more votes. Yet the causal mechanisms leading to this advantage remain unexplored. We consider for the first time a potential trigger of the looks-vote association that has previously been suggested but not tested in the literature: exposure to campaign posters of the candidates. We test this explanation with German election survey data, which we augment with ratings of the attractiveness and facial competence of about 1,000 district candidates. Confirming previous studies on Germany, we find that attractiveness is positively associated with candidate vote share (1.2 ppts. min— max). At the voter level, we find tentative evidence for the idea that the association is moderated by exposure to campaign posters. [R, abr.]
71.6632 HERTEL-FERNANDEZ, Alexander ; NAIDU, Suresh ; REICH, Adam —
Strikes are a central tool of organized labor, yet existing research has focused on the economic consequences of strikes, rather than their political effects. We examine how labor actions by teachers, a well-organized group of public sector workers, affect mass attitudes about the strikes and interest in the labor movement more generally. Our context involves largescale teacher strikes and walkouts in six [US] states in 2018. Using an original survey in the affected states, we study the causal effect of strike exposure among parents whose children’s ages place them in or out of school. Firsthand strike exposure increased parents’ support for the teachers and for the labor movement, as well as parents’ interest in labor action (though not necessarily through traditional unions). [R, abr.]
71.6633 HERTNER, Isabelle —
I discuss three important books on European gender politics. Two focus on the EU and highlight the increasing feminisation of EU politics. More women have been elected/appointed and taken up leadership positions inside EU institutions, and gender equality legislation has made a positive difference to women. Still, gender equality remains, by and large, a female, and less prestigious domain. Also, Europe’s existing gender inequalities have been exacerbated by austerity, the migration crisis, Brexit, and Covid-19. The third book analyses the growing far-right populist ‘complex’ and its opposition to feminism, women’s (reproductive) rights, and LGBTQ rights. This backlash is embedded in the cultural and socio-economic contexts that enable far-right populist actors to flourish. Together, these insightful books shed light on gender equality progress and backlash in Europe. [R, abr.]
71.6634 HIEDA, Takeshi ; ZENKYO, Masahiro ; NISHIKAWA, Masaru —
Based on an ideational approach, a burgeoning body of literature has directly measured populist attitudes among supporters of populist parties. However, few empirical works have examined whether these attitudes among voters also explain their preferences for politicians whom a political-strategic approach regards as populists. In addition, no research has verified the applicability of individual populist scales to non-Western countries. To overcome these shortcomings, this study assesses populist attitudes among Japanese citizens and explores whether a respondent with these attitudes tends to vote for populist politicians in Japan. We conducted an online survey after the 2017 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election. Survey results revealed that the supporters of the Tokyoites First Party — a typical populist party in a political-strategic sense — lack the quintessential elements of populism. [R, abr.]
71.6635 HIERRO, Maria Jose ; QUERALT, Didac —
Anticipated trade, insurance, and fiscal shocks from independence structure preferences for secession independently from nonmaterial considerations. To test this claim, we draw from an original survey conducted in Catalonia before the 2017 regional election, which followed a suspended declaration of independence. Trade shocks produce differential effects depending on market specialization: Respondents working in sectors and at firms specializing in the host state market disproportionately oppose secession, whereas those specializing in foreign markets show no aversion to independence. Exclusion from public insurance strengthens preference for secession among the long‐term unemployed. Support for secession also increases with skill levels but not because of expected post-independence factor returns. The skilled population shows a better understanding of the institutional design of interterritorial redistribution. [R, abr.]
71.6636 HÖGSTRÖM, John —
I examine what characteristics affect early voting in Sweden, and a large-N study of all of Sweden’s 290 municipalities for the four most recent elections is conducted. The results show that the level of early voting is higher in municipalities where the average income is higher; where the level of older people is higher; where the level of the electorate born abroad is higher; in rural municipalities; and in municipalities where the number of early voting sites per one thousand eligible voters is higher. If the goal of the municipalities is to increase early voting, any policy recommendation that is based on the results of this study should ensure that there are numerous early voting sites in the municipalities and if there are not, the municipalities should consider increasing the number of early voting sites they provide. [R]
71.6637 HUNG Ho-fung —
The 2019 uprising in Hong Kong was remarkable not only for its militant defiance of Beijing’s creeping authoritarian control but also for the local and international popular support it garnered. The persistence of demonstrations and the prospect of an opposition-controlled legislative body aroused Beijing’s fear of losing control of Hong Kong as it had Taiwan. In response, Beijing imposed its National Security Law on Hong Kong in July 2020, threatening to stifle the remaining freedom and autonomy of the region. This heavy-handed crackdown on Hong Kong threw the opposition into disarray. The protest movement also fizzled out. But in light of other cases of autonomy or independence-seeking movements in other parts of China and around the world, the resistance in Hong Kong will certainly persist in the long run. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6638 HUNTINGTON, Nicholas ; O’BRIEN, Thomas —
In the 2020 General Election, the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand appeared ideally positioned to capitalise on its association with the Labour-NZ First coalition, led by Jacinda Ardern. Leading up to the election campaign, the Green Party presented itself as a progressive partner for the dominant Labour Party against weak opposition from the National Party. During the campaign, polls suggested that there was a risk the party would not pass the threshold for representation in Parliament, leading to the vigorous targeting of the Auckland City electorate seat. The strategy was successful, as the Green Party slightly increased its representation and won the electorate seat. [R, abr.]
71.6639 ISMAIL, Muhamad Takiyuddin ; NOOR, Norazam Mohd —
Malaysia has not invited International Election Monitoring Organisations (IEMOs) for any of its general elections (GEs) since 1990 and so is numbered among those states that defy this international norm. Although the elections under the Barisan Nasional (BN) regime displayed a wide variety of manipulative practices, the BN was able, due to its position as a semiauthoritarian nature, its strategic importance and its lack of dependence on foreign aid, to successfully resist demands for the presence of IEMOs. The prospects for IEMOs has been further reduced, since the GE 2013, by the Election Commission’s “election visit programme” (EVP), adopted to compensate for the absence of IEMOs. Following Malaysia’s historic GE 2018, a widespread consensus has developed that though Malaysia should not abandon its own EVP programme, it should readopt this international norm by inviting IEMOs. [R, abr.]
71.6640 JACKMAN, David —
Decades of violent yet competitive party politics in Bangladesh have been usurped by authoritarian consolidation under the ruling Awami League. Both mainstream ‘civil society’ and political opposition have been largely suppressed, left unable to wage the protests typical of the county’s politics. It is then striking that recent years have nonetheless seen significant urban unrest in the form of student led movements, coalescing around issues of injustice. Such social movements are neglected in the study of authoritarian durability, yet appear in practice to pose a serious threat to the ruling party. To understand this threat, this article examines two cases from 2018: the movements for reform to civil service quotas, and improved road safety. It argues such movements must be read in light of Bangladesh’s history, where students have played a major role in confronting authoritarian rule. [R, abr.]
71.6641 JACOBSON, Gary C. —
The author discusses the 2020 presidential and congressional elections. He argues that the elections were above all a referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency, which provoked extreme levels of party loyalty, partisan polarization, and partisan animosity in the electorate, as well as the highest voter turnout in more than a century. [R]
71.6642 JAKLI, Laura ; STENBERG, Matthew —
While numerous studies consider the roles that media consolidation, court‐packing, and economic crises have played in Hungary’s democratic decline since 2010, none have considered the subnational mechanisms driving illiberalism. This study examines the types of subnational procedural tinkering that propel illiberalism by reducing local capacity for institutional resilience. Specifically, we trace how the right‐wing Fidesz‐KDNP government implemented subnational constraints to prevent the reemergence of a viable political opposition by (1) limiting opportunities for political contestation and (2) reducing oversight of the governing coalition. We employ a multimethod approach, pairing systematic document analysis of city council rules and regulations in Hungary’s 27 largest municipalities with 26 in‐depth elite interviews across five Hungarian regional cities with mayors, councilmembers, and local leaders of each major political party. [R, abr.]
71.6643 JANKOWSKI, Michael ; MÜLLER, Stefan —
Do candidates in local elections benefit from an incumbency advantage? And which factors moderate the strength of this incumbency bonus? Analyzing seven decades of Irish local elections (1942-2019) conducted under proportional representation through the single transferable vote, we reassess and extend the mixed evidence on the incumbency advantage under proportional representation and in second-order elections. By applying the Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that the incumbency advantage is at least as strong in Irish local as in general elections, which are conducted under the identical electoral system. We also show that marginally elected candidates in local elections have much higher reelection probabilities when they do not face a high-quality candidate in their local electoral area after getting elected. [R, abr.]
71.6644 JANSSEN, Chloé ; ERZEEL, Silvia ; CELIS, Karen —
While it is axiomatic to note how ethnic minorities and women are both politically underrepresented in Western Europe, the interaction between ethnicity and gender in candidate nomination is seldom articulated. Some suggest that ethnic minority men fare better in the nomination process, while others indicate that ethnic minority women experience a ‘complementarity advantage’ over minority men. This article examines the experiences of Maghrebian-origin male and female candidates by exploring the conditionality of their respective advantages in Brussels local elections. More precisely, we show how contextual factors known to influence the nomination of ethnic minorities in particular parties and districts generate gendered outcomes. Our results show that the Maghrebian concentration in the district, shapes parties’ strategies, and influences the gender imbalance among Maghrebian-origin candidates. [R, abr.]
71.6645 JASTRAMSKIS, Mažvydas —
Article analyses the electoral success of non-partisan presidential candidates in Lithuania by exploring the institutional, supply and demand factors. The main contribution relates to the demand side: presented research tests two hypotheses that aim to explain the voters’ support for the nonpartisan presidents and candidates. First, analysis shows that some nonpartisan presidential candidates capitalize on the voters’ dissatisfaction with democracy. However, relationship is nonexistent or even reversed in the other cases. Second, article finds that different non-partisan presidents (candidates) appear to be “partisans in disguise”, as they find particular electoral niches and are supported by different party electorates. [R]
71.6646 JENSEN, Amalie, et al. —
We examine whether the barriers of partisan sorting and polarization seen in national politics extend to important local policies that shape economic development. To describe the extent of partisan sorting and polarization over local development policies, we employ conjoint survey experiments in representative surveys of eight US metropolitan areas and a hierarchical modeling strategy for studying heterogeneity across respondents. We find that strong partisans are sorted by party in some of their policy opinions, but rarely polarized. The same voters who disagree about national issues have similar preferences about local development issues suggesting a greater scope for bipartisan problem solving at the local level. [R]
71.6647 JUNG Jae-Hee ; TAVITS, Margit —
Referendums are often seen as a means to legitimize the outcome as the new norm and increase acceptance of the outcome. Do referendums actually have these effects? More precisely, do voters recognize the referendum result as the new norm? And do voters go as far as to change their own minds in accord with the referendum result? We explore these questions using a panel survey that we conducted in Ireland before and after the abortion referendum that was held on May 25, 2018. We find that, after the referendum, voters updated their norm perceptions in the direction of the referendum result. However, we find inconsistent evidence that the referendum convinced voters to change their personal opinions about abortion. The findings provide insights on the power and the limit of referendums in increasing policy agreement among voters. [R]
71.6648 JUNK, Wiebke Marie ; ROMEIJN, Jeroen ; RASMUSSEN, Anne —
How well are women represented in the world of political advocacy? Despite the important role of interest groups in modern democracies, the demographic composition of the interest group community remains a blind spot in public policy research. Based on data on over 1000 lobbyists in five European countries, we suggest that the share of women in the world of advocacy is significantly lower than in parliaments. We therefore argue that gender biases in political advocacy need to move high up on the research agenda. As key avenues for future studies, we raise the effects these imbalances have on agenda setting and political decision-making, as well as their symbolic effects on female participation and perceived legitimacy. [R, abr.]
71.6649 JURADO, Ignacio ; NAVARRETE, Rosa M. —
Research has shown that voting in European elections is affected by domestic politics. However, in the last years, and particularly after the European debt crisis, also the EU has gained relevance and salience in national politics. In this paper we address the Europeanization of national elections and assess to what extent the characteristics of countries condition the intensity of EU issue voting. Using data from the European Election Studies and the Comparative Manifestos Project, our results demonstrate the importance of congruence between citizens’ and parties’ positions on the EU for the individual vote on the national level and show how this varies across countries. [R, abr.]
71.6650 CURTIS, K. Amber, MILLER ; Steven V., —
Recent work suggests personality affects the subjective psychological weight one attaches to an identity. This study extends prior findings showing a static effect on European identification in a single country by investigating whether a similar systematic relationship exists for a wider range of political-territorial identities (regional, national, supranational, and exclusively nationalist) across different country contexts (Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom) and over time (2012-2018). Original cross-national and panel survey data show that different traits predict both the type and degree of inclusivity of individuals’ identity attachments. These results contribute to the growing scholarship surrounding personality’s effects on EU support while underscoring the impact predispositions have on citizens’ sociopolitical orientations. [R, abr.]
71.6651 KADT, Daniel de —
How does local demographic context shape political behavior? We investigate how racial isolation, one of the natural consequences of structural segregation, is related to racial voting in South Africa. Using a variety of new datasets, which include for the first time high-resolution census data from before the end of apartheid, we leverage plausibly exogenous variation in the extent to which local segregation persisted after the end of apartheid to study this relationship. Whites who are more isolated engage in more racial voting, measured as the probability of voting along racial lines, against black political parties. Using geo-referenced survey data for over 39,000 people we then present individual level evidence consistent with our findings, and discuss potential mechanisms. [R]
71.6652 KALTENEGGER, Matthias ; HEUGL, Katharina ; MÜLLER, Wolfgang C. —
Intra-party democracy calls for party elites being responsive towards party activists. Yet, empirically, we know relatively little about how responsive parties are towards their rank and file and the factors influencing these processes. This article investigates drivers of party responsiveness towards activists, using a novel data source. Following a case study approach, the article analyses how motions submitted at 41 post-war party congresses of the Austrian Social Democratic Party were treated by party elites (n = 3249). Results indicate that elite responsiveness is a means to appease activists when the party underperforms in party competition. Elites vary responsiveness across intra-party groups. They are more ready to accept the demands of those groups that are affected most by the party’s failure to deliver. Party elites are also more responsive towards electorally successful subunits. [R]
71.6653 KANE, John V. ; WILSON, David C. —
Voter identification laws (VID) potentially affect who votes and who wins elections, making debates about them highly contentious among national elites and state legislatures. Yet the debate is far more muted among members of the public, with over three quarters of Americans supporting a photo identification requirement to vote, including majorities of both Democrats and Republicans. Research points to several factors that affect opinion on VID; however, these studies have not led to a theoretical framework for understanding the broad consensus of public support. We propose that the public generally views policies requiring ID to vote as commonsensical, uncontroversial, and essentially costless. These perceptions undergird the sizable public consensus on VID. If true, then when presented with dissonant information cueing controversy and increasing the costs of compliance with the law, we should expect support to substantially decline. [R, abr.]
71.6654 KARAKAS, Leyla D. ; MITRA, Devashish —
This paper studies the effects of cultural identity on electoral and policy outcomes when voters are “behavioral.” Building on the evidence that voters assess political or economic events through the lens of their partisan identifications, we analyze an election between two office-motivated candidates in which voters over-reward or under-punish the candidate that shares their cultural identity. Focusing on issues with cultural as well as distributional implications for voters such as immigration and the cultural divide based on nativism as the source of identity politics, we find that the candidates’ equilibrium policies are always preferred by the electorally dominant cultural group to the policy that would be optimal if policies only had distributional consequences. We also show that candidates do not necessarily target their own cultural bases in equilibrium. Furthermore, stronger identity politics increases policy polarization. [R, abr.]
71.6655 KAUL, Eli Charles —
This article looks at the structural and institutional changes that occur within the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) between the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan. Why did a security service that was hailed as a protector of democracy when it stood against the national police, under the command of the Interior Ministry (MVS) who were attempting to quash the Orange Revolution protests in 2004 become a leading suspect in the anti-democratic shootings that occurred in the Euromaidan protests in 2014? One potential explanation is the pervasive patronage political shifts that result in personnel changes atop the hierarchy of the SBU. Another is that the bifurcated political structure (presidential powers vs. those of the legislature) of Ukraine shifted creating a realignment of political loyalties. [R, abr.]
71.6656 KAYSER, Mark A. ; REHMERT, Jochen —
In a coalition government, the policy that emerges is often the outcome of negotiations between governing parties. We argue that the credibility of exit threats by current coalition members and the importance of outside parties for the formation of potential alternative coalitions both matter for policy adoption. Building on a new data-set measuring the expected coalition‐inclusion probabilities of parties in parliamentary democracies, we estimate the effect of coalition prospects on an important policy outcome — environmental policy stringency — in nine European countries between 1990 and 2012. Our findings demonstrate that only polling shifts that alter coalition probabilities affect outcomes. Changes in the coalition‐inclusion probability of green parties — regardless of whether they are in government — predict changes in the environmental policy stringency of sitting governments. Political polls, in contrast, do not. [R, abr.]
71.6657 KENNEDY, John ; ALCANTARA, Christopher ; ARMSTRONG, David A., II —
Political parties regularly make promises to the public about what they hope to accomplish if and when they are elected to office. Once in office, the winning party, usually via the executive branch, announces its agenda by delivering a “speech from the throne” or a “state of the union/nation” address in the legislature. To what extent are governments able to fulfill the promises they make in these speeches? To answer this question, we investigate the impact of three structural constraints on promise-fulfillment over time — procedural (e.g., majority vs. minority configurations); informational (e.g., new vs. incumbent governments); and economic (economic recession) — using an original dataset drawn from Canadian speeches from the throne between 1962 and 2013. [R, abr.]
71.6658 KENNY, Michael ; SHELDON, Jack —
An unusual combination of factors meant that Northern Ireland featured prominently in British Conservative thinking during the course of the extended efforts by the UK governments led by Theresa May and Boris Johnson to implement Brexit, following the 2016 referendum. Opposition among Conservative backbenchers to the differential treatment of Northern Ireland under the proposed ‘backstop’ arrangement contributed to the defeat of the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated with the EU by May. However, after Johnson became Prime Minister, a deal involving greater divergence between Great Britain and Northern Ireland secured overwhelming support from these same Conservative MPs. This paper explores the origins of, and influences upon, these debates on Northern Ireland within the parliamentary Conservative Party. [R, abr.]
71.6659 KIM Seongcheol —
Drawing on E. Laclau’s theory of discourse, hegemony, and populism, this paper analyses the development of the discourses of Fidesz in Hungary and Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland from opposition to power with a focus on how authoritarianism is articulated, especially in relation to populism. The post-foundational discourse analysis finds that populism takes on an authoritarian expression only in certain discursive combinations, mostly with nationalism, while authoritarianism follows a range of different logics (populist and non-populist alike), including nationalism and social welfarism without populism (PiS) or what Laclau refers to as institutionalism (Fidesz). [R]
71.6660 KITCHEN, Harry —
The current trend towards an ageing population and the fact that a smaller percentage of this cohort is poor when compared with younger age groups poses challenges in the way in which some senior services are financed. The long-established practice of discounting fees or lowering property taxes based strictly on age rather than ability to pay raises a number of equity and efficiency concerns. It is unfair because those who are younger and poorer end up subsidising those who are older and richer. It is inefficient because those paying discounted prices or taxes have an incentive to demand more than they would if they paid the full price. This, in turn, leads to more municipal resources being devoted to the service than is economically efficient and it may create significant revenue challenges for municipalities with limited resources. [R] [See Abstr. 71.6481]
71.6661 KLEIN, Elad —
The phenomenon of legislative party-switching has attracted considerable attention among scholars. Studies show that parties are likely to experience defections if they are unable to offer their legislators electoral, office and policy benefits. While often deemed a symptom of a weakly institutionalized party system, switching may also be frequent in established democracies. Yet, surprisingly, we have no empirical evidence to help us understand whether party benefits that drive switchers are different in established democracies and new democracies. I argue that parties that fail to provide their members with re-election prospects or government access are likely to witness switching only in new democracies. In advanced democracies, switching is likely to be associated with ideological identity and policy motives. The statistical analysis of party switching across 25 European advanced and post-communist democracies confirms my expectations. [R]
71.6662 KNUDSEN, Erik —
A growing body of comparative studies on partisan hostility — a phenomenon known as affective polarization — is providing evidence that partisan affective polarization is generally no greater in the US than it is in many European multiparty systems. This article presents the first comparative study on affective polarization that simultaneously uses, compares and combines a direct measure of affective polarization towards voters (using the inter‐party marriage measure) and an indirect measure of affective polarization towards parties (using the like/dislike of party measure) while accounting for the fact that multiparty systems have numerous political parties. This is done by comparing the levels of affective polarization in the US and Norway. [R, abr.]
71.6663 KOHNO, Masaru —
Previous research suggests that ideology, material interests, and moral values drive citizens’ preferences over foreign aid policy. Little attention has been paid to how perceptions of the international environment affect these preferences. We examine the extent to which citizens in a traditional donor country consider donor competition when deciding whether to impose aid sanctions on governments engaged in human rights violations. Employing an information experiment conducted among Japanese adults, we find that the prospect of another donor ready to act as a substitute aidprovider reduces support for the use of aid sanctions. This effect runs most strongly through a pathway privileging security concerns, and the effect is larger among respondents who have preexisting concerns about the other donor. [R, abr.]
71.6664 KÖNIG, Thomas ; LU Xiao —
We explain the referendums on British membership of the European Communities and European Union from a principal-agent perspective between the Prime Minister and the rank-and-file. We show that announcing a referendum on the Prime Minister’s membership proposal helps the incumbent party to win the general election when the rank-and-file is divided on the terms of membership. When the Prime Minister overcomes the rankand-file’s mistrust of her effectiveness in negotiating new membership terms with other member states, the voters are more likely to follow her proposal. However, when intra-party controversies reveal principal-agent problems, the initially uninformed voters can learn about the dysfunctionality of the terms and are more likely to reject the Prime Minister’s proposal. [R]
71.6665 KONYA, Nazi —
Political protests involving clashes with police are often delegitimized by governments for using “uncivil” and “violent” means. Drawing on a creative video clip (“Breaking Billboards”) made by a group of Gezi protestors, this paper theorizes an alternative response, which refuses the dichotomy between peaceful and violent struggles and instead seeks to transform the field of judgement. The protestors in the clip, by echoing a verse originally written by poet Cemal Süreya, reconstruct destructive activity — breaking billboards — playfully and detached from its presumed ends. Placing their performances in conversation with Giorgio Agamben’s theory of mediality — means without end — I argue that the clip reconstructs political action in play-form, corroding the significance of the means-ends relationship. In doing so, it frustrates the usual grounds of judgement within which the meaning and value of protest activities are arbitrated. [R]
71.6666 KOVRAS, Iosif ; PAGLIARI, Stefano —
This article investigates the politics of holding bank executives accountable for banking crises. The post-2008 financial crisis was characterized by a significant variation in the endorsement of retributive justice. While some countries established special prosecutorial bodies and facilitated prosecutions, others relied on the existing prosecutorial mechanisms to seek out wrongdoing. The comparative experience of Iceland and Cyprus shows that the unfolding of the crisis shapes the appetite of politicians for retributive justice. With a banking collapse, politicians will be most proactive, as voters’ demand for justice is high and the risks for the banking industry are minimal. With a severe yet negotiated crisis following a bailout/bail-in, politicians are more reluctant to endorse policies that may risk the recovery of the fragile banking sector. [R]
71.6667 KREHBIEL, Jay N. —
Understanding how high courts successfully constrain the state poses a puzzle central to the study of constitutional review. An increasingly popular answer to this puzzle is that voters electorally punish governments for noncompliance with judicial decisions. This article conducts a cross-national analysis of the relationship between noncompliance and an incumbent government’s electoral success. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy Project on noncompliance with the national high courts of 74 countries from 2007 to 2017, I examine whether voters systematically punish or reward noncompliance. The analysis of a series of hierarchical linear models reveals that engaging in more noncompliance decreases an incumbent government’s vote share in contexts with a strong pre-existing norm of compliance. [R, abr.]
71.6668 KRUPENKIN, Masha —
This article studies the role of partisanship in American’s willingness to follow government recommendations. I combine survey and behavioral data to examine partisans’ vaccination rates during the Bush and Obama administrations. I find that presidential co-partisans are more likely to believe that vaccines are safe and more likely to vaccinate themselves and their children than presidential out-partisans. Depending on the vaccine, presidential co-partisans are 4-10 percentage points more likely to vaccinate than presidential out-partisans. Using causal mediation analysis, I find that this effect is the result of partisans’ differing levels of trust in government. This finding sheds light on the far-reaching role of partisanship in Americans’ interactions with the federal government. [R]
71.6669 KUK, John ; HAJNAL, Zoltan —
We know much about the gender wage gap but relatively little about its political or partisan sources. We examine the effects of party control of state government on gender inequality in income, wages, unemployment, and poverty. Employing both a regression discontinuity design and a dynamic difference‐in‐difference analysis, we find that electing a Democratic majority to the state house leads to substantial improvement in women’s incomes, wages, and unemployment relative to men — especially in recent years. We also show that greater female representation in office and more liberal policymaking on policies related to women’s rights could be driving that process. We find, however, fewer clear effects on poverty and less robust results for partisan control of the governor’s office or the state senate. Parties and politics matter, but not always. [R, abr.]
71.6670 KULAKEVICH, Tatsiana —
This article examines the formation of nationalism in Belarus through two dimensions: elite ideology and everyday practice. I argue the presidential election of 2020 turned into a fundamental institutional crisis when a homogeneous set of ‘nation’ practices against the state ideology replaced existing elite ideology. This resulted in popular incremental changes in conceptions of national understanding. After twenty-six consecutive years in power, President Lukashenka unintentionally unleashed a process of national awakening leading to the rise of a new sovereign nation that demands the right to determine its own future, independent of geopolitical pressures and interference. [R] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6671 KULSKA, Joanna —
One of the most recognized features of social-political reality in Poland is the role of Catholicism as the determinant of national-political identity and of Catholic Church as the influential political actor. The analysis focuses on the evolution of Church-state relations in Poland displayed in the broader framework of similar developments that, in spite of existing historical-political differences, characterized the region. Three fundamental perspectives are considered in the article. The first of them is social-cultural dimension creating the wide context for recognizing the religious factor as more or less fundamental for the given society. The second one is formallegal framework resembling the specific religion-nation-state entanglement. The third is the role played by the Catholic Church in the context of civil society. [R, abr.]
71.6672 KÜPPERS, Anne —
Since the mid-1990s, German parties at the regional level have started to hold party primaries (infrequently) to select their leaders. In recent years, research on primaries has attracted the attention of political science scholars, but surprisingly, the German case has been left out of international comparative studies. Hence, I tested four hypotheses on possible consequences regarding membership numbers, intra-party competition, and characteristics of party leaders. My findings indicate that primaries attract more candidates than conventions, but there are no differences in the closeness of the race. Party leaders selected by rank-and-file members are less politically experienced than those selected by delegates. The probability that the most experienced candidate wins a competitive leadership race is much lower in primaries. [R, abr.]
71.6673 LADINI, Riccardo —
In recent years several European countries have experienced a significant decrease in turnout, even as the level of campaign professionalisation has been increasing. Since scholars have recognised mobilisation as a key aspect in determining turnout, this article aims to disentangle the effects of mobilisation on electoral participation. It focuses on the 2013 Parliamentary Election in Austria, which saw the lowest turnout rate ever recorded in that country. The data used are taken from the Austrian National Election Study Rolling Cross-Section Panel 2013. This data source allows for the dynamic analysis of campaign effects through LOWESS estimations of the daily means of the measures of interest. Moreover, its panel structure permits us to take under control the individual likelihood to turn out before the elections whilst studying the effects of various forms of party contact on self-reported turnout. [R, abr.]
71.6674 LAGO, Manuel E. ; LAGO, Ignacio —
This article examines whether household size affects economic voting. We argue when individuals are asked about national economic conditions and their personal financial situation that moderate or mid-range responses are more likely in multi-person households than in one-person households. The aggregation of personal economic evaluations within households reduces the variation in economic opinions across household members. As a result, it is harder for an individual to say that the national economic conditions and her personal financial situation are good or bad as the number of household members increases. Using individual-level data from the American National Election Studies from 1966 to 2016, the authors find that both evaluations of the national economy and personal economic conditions are endogenous to household size. [R, abr.]
71.6675 LAPOINTE, Valérie ; TURGEON, Luc —
Cet article fait l’analyse des discours homonationalistes dans un contexte qui a été peu exploré à ce jour, soit celui d’une nation minoritaire (le Québec) à l’intérieur d’un État multinational (le Canada). Dans la mesure où le nationalisme se construit souvent en opposition avec un "Autre", nous tentons de cerner qui est cet "Autre" dans l’homonationalisme québécois. En particulier, nous explorons si cet "Autre" peut également prendre la forme de la nation majoritaire par l’entremise d’une analyse d’articles publiés entre 1990 et 2017 dans différents journaux québécois (La Presse, Le Devoir et le Journal de Montréal). [R, abr.]
71.6676 LARKIN, Craig ; NASASRA, Mansour —
The inclusion-moderation thesis posits that radical movements can be moderated through participation in democratic pluralist politics. Repeatedly applied to Islamist movements questions remain over its conceptual ambiguity and empirical veracity. Despite such weaknesses this thesis continues to be utilized to explain the diverging trajectories of the Islamic movement within Israel — its Southern accommodationist parliamentary branch (IMSB) and its separatist Northern branch (IMNB), now officially banned by Israel. This article examines this significant yet understudied movement, as a means of challenging the reductionist reading of Arab Islamist politics in Israel while at the same time rethinking the perimeters of inclusion-moderation theory. The case suggests that Islamist strategic moderation may be a result of both state repression and political inclusion but rarely does it lead to complete ideological transformation. [R, abr.]
71.6677 LARSEN, Mikkel Haderup ; SCHAEFFER, Merlin —
Social science research has produced evidence of welfare chauvinism whereby citizens turn against social policies that disproportionately benefit immigrants and their descendants. Some policymakers advocate welfare chauvinism as a means to incentivize fast labour market integration and assimilation into the mainstream more generally. These contested arguments about integration incentives can hardly be extended to the case of hospital treatment of an acute COVID-19 infection. On that premise we conducted a pre-registered online survey experiment among a representative sample of the Danish population about healthcare chauvinism against recent immigrants and Muslim minorities during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic of spring 2020. [R, abr.]
71.6678 LEBLANC, Deanne Aline Marie —
This article, grounded within the argument that liberal citizenship and recognition-based approaches to decolonization are inappropriate responses to Indigenous calls to decolonize, proposes an alternative approach premised on re-evaluating non-Indigenous understandings of invitation, belonging and rights within the Canadian settler state. I suggest that non-Indigenous peoples consider themselves “foreigners” in need of invitation onto Indigenous lands and that, as colonial denizens, non-Indigenous Canadians take up an ethos that encourages them to re-evaluate their lives and relations with Indigenous peoples, Indigenous lands and the settler state. I contend that identifying and acting upon such an ethos can provide a way through which non-Indigenous peoples can appropriately and seriously meet Indigenous peoples’ calls for change. [R, abr.]
71.6679 LEE, Eliza W. Y. —
The political machine that supports political clientelism in Hong Kong is adapted from united front organizations, which are the party-state’s institutional infrastructure for exercising indirect rule over Hong Kong. As machinery intended for penetrating society and building social alliances in support of the party-state, it is readily adaptable for the purpose of building clientelistic networks for electoral purposes. The necessary and massive human, financial, and organizational resources, in short, the penetrative capacity of united front organizations, compensate for the weak dependency of voters on patronage goods and the limited availability of state resources for political patronage. The electoral breakthrough in the 2019 District Council elections revealed the limitations of weak dependency and, hence, the unviability of the political machine. [R]
71.6680 LEVI, Yonatan ; AGMON, Shai —
Despite being largely overlooked in the literature, Israel provides a rare example of what a full decade of twenty-first century populism in power looks like. Based on an examination of rhetoric and policymaking between 2009 and 2019, this article brings the writing on the subject up to date and highlights the unique traits of Israeli populism. In so doing it establishes that Israeli populism has been mainstreamed to a remarkable extent and currently encompasses almost all right-wing parties in the country’s legislature. Moreover, it shows that the Israeli case embodies a variety of populism which has yet to be acknowledged in the literature – neither economic nor cultural in character, but rather based on national security issues. The concept of ‘security-driven populism’, introduced here, could prove useful to researchers studying other populist regimes that do not fit neatly into the ‘culture versus economy’ debate, which has dominated the field for years. [R]
71.6681 LEWIS, Jacob S. —
South African politics are in a period of transition: the dominant African National Congress (ANC) is in decline, support for opposition parties has been rising, and voters have been disengaging rapidly from the electoral process. As protest movements have become more common and more powerful, established political parties have increasingly led their own protests, often addressing the same issues that citizens rise up about. This phenomenon has been understudied but has important ramifications for the future of South African politics. This article addresses this gap in the literature, arguing that party-led protests can be interpreted as costly signals of credible commitments to address the very issues that citizens are upset about. [R, abr.]
71.6682 LIU Wai-Man ; NGO Phong —
Do people “vote with their feet” in response to a lack of political competition? Since political competition is associated with higher growth and welfare, with the free movement of labor, we argue that it should also encourage inward migration. We test this hypothesis by using data from the US and find a strong positive relation between political competition and net migration. This result is robust to alternative specifications, alternative samples and addressing endogeneity using the Voting Rights Act to instrument for political competition. The effect is economically large, specifically, we find that an increase in political competition in the order of magnitude observed in US Southern states during the post-war period leads to an increase in net migration by between 27 and 44 individuals per 1000 population. [R]
71.6683 LOEWEN, Peter John ; RUBENSON, Daniel —
War comes with terrible costs both in terms of money and lives. Do voters punish incumbents for these costs? Much of the existing literature on the effects of war deaths on public opinion toward incumbents and their war efforts suggests that the answer is yes. We test this proposition on data from a non-US case: Canada’s war in Afghanistan. We estimate models of the effect of local war deaths on incumbent support using individuallevel panel data from the 2006, 2008 and 2011 Canadian Election Studies and aggregate district-level data from the 2008 and 2011 general elections. In none of our models do we find support for the conclusion that war deaths decrease support for candidates of the governing party. [R, abr.]
71.6684 LORENTZEN, Jenny —
The frames of counterterrorism and countering violent extremism are increasingly shaping much international engagement in Mali. In this environment, women’s contributions are often reduced to their peacemaking potential. This article studies how the UN policy agendas on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) and Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) are translated in discourses on P/CVE in Mali. It draws on feminist and postcolonial scholarship to develop a framework for analysing how local intermediaries in norm translation engage in ‘discursive practices of re-presentation’ and conducts a discourse analysis of interviews with Malian civil society and government representatives. The analysis finds that a re-presentation of women as security actors, constructed as an extension of their roles as peacemakers, dominates the discourse. [R, abr.]
71.6685 LUNA, Juan Pablo, et al. —
Resurgent interest in political parties embraces a minimalist definition of political parties, according to which any group that competes in elections and receives a handful of votes qualifies as a party. Parties, however, are expected to contribute to democratic representation, and the party politics literature has extensively shown that many “parties” do not fulfill this expectation. These entities that possess some but not all defining features of political parties can be considered diminished subtypes of the category. We put forth a new typology of diminished subtypes of political parties based on the presence or absence of two primary attributes: horizontal coordination of ambitious politicians during electoral campaigns and while in office, and vertical aggregation to electorally mobilize collective interests and to intermediate and channel collective demands. [R, abr.]
71.6686 MACDONALD, David —
Labor unions have long been important political actors, mobilizing voters, shaping their members’ attitudes, and influencing representation and economic inequality. However, little is known regarding unions’ influence on political knowledge. I argue that unions increase their members’ political knowledge through two mechanisms: direct information provision and workplace discussion of politics. I use data from recent national election surveys and a matching technique, showing that union members, particularly those with less formal education, who face higher costs in seeking out political information, are significantly more politically knowledgeable than their non-union counterparts and better informed about where political parties and candidates stand on the issues. I conclude by discussing unions’ capacity to reduce knowledge gaps and foster a more politically informed electorate. [R]
71.6687 MARGALIT, Yotam ; SHAYO, Moses —
How does engagement with markets affect socioeconomic values and political preferences? A long line of thinkers has debated the nature and direction of such effects, but claims are difficult to assess empirically because market engagement is endogenous. We designed a large field experiment to evaluate the impact of financial markets, which have grown dramatically in recent decades. Participants from a national sample in England received substantial sums they could invest over a 6‐week period. We assigned them into several treatments designed to distinguish between different theoretical channels of influence. Results show that investment in stocks led to a more right‐leaning outlook on issues such as merit and deservingness, personal responsibility, and equality. Subjects also shifted to the right on policy questions. These results appear to be driven by growing familiarity with, and decreasing distrust of markets. [R, abr.]
71.6688 MARIANI, Mack, et al. —
This study examines how Ireland’s political parties responded to the implementation of legislative gender quotas for the first time at the 2016 Dáil election. Using a dataset that includes biographical and electoral information on all candidates for the 2007, 2011 and 2016 general elections, we assess whether the profile of candidates nominated in 2016 differed from previous elections. Although many parties ‘balanced the books’ by nominating fewer inexperienced male candidates, the evidence suggests that some parties engaged in ‘sacrificial lamb’ strategies when it came to the selection of women candidates. In 2016, women non-incumbents nominated by Fine Gael were significantly less experienced and less able to raise funds than in previous elections. In addition, women non-incumbents nominated by both Fine Gael and Labour in 2016 were significantly more likely to run non-competitive races even after controlling for party, experience, funding support and other factors. [R, abr.]
71.6689 MARKOU, Grigoris —
In recent years, especially after the outbreak of the economic crisis, the phenomenon of populism has returned to the forefront. Populism is all around us, on the front pages of the newspapers, in the political repertoire, in academic papers. Politicians, journalists and researchers discuss this phenomenon, try to define it, examine its principal features and analyse its relationship with democracy. A large part of the mainstream parties and politicians have succeeded, through a strong anti-populist rhetoric, in consolidating the idea that populism is a dangerous ideology. Technocrats, mainstream media and many researchers blame the anti-establishment parties and argue that populism is an ‘irrational’ phenomenon that threatens politics and society. But is that really the case? [R, abr.]
71.6690 MASSUCHIN, Michele ; CAVASSANA, Fernanda ; CERVI, Emerson —
A longitudinal analysis of the use of televised electoral advertising by the two political parties that have been the central actors in presidential elections in post-democratization Brazil: the Workers’ Party (hereinafter referred to using the Portuguese acronym the ‘PT’) and the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB). Our objective is to identify patterns and changes in Brazilian electoral advertising between 2002 and 2018 with reference to Brazil’s system of free electoral advertising time, more of which has been allocated to these two parties than to any other. Despite the increasing use of other forms of electoral campaigning, free electoral advertising is central to presidential contests and demarcates political time and parties’ agendas. It is therefore relevant to understand how use of this campaign component has been developed over time, taking into account two factors: messages and strategies. [R, abr.]
71.6691 MATTA, Nada —
Neoliberal restructuring and the feminization of export-led industries are often associated with the disempowerment of women in the workplace. Surprisingly, this disempowerment was not the case with a public textile company in Mahalla, an industrial city north of Cairo. Between 2006 and 2008, workers organized wildcat strikes involving around 24,000 workers. In contrast to the strike waves of the 1980s, women were integral to organizing the strikes and assumed leadership roles in them. This article argues that even as Egypt adopted structural adjustments in the 1990s that led to the decline of the historically leading sectors of textiles and yarn, exports of clothing increased. By the 2000s, the clothing sector was completely feminized and women in Mahalla were positioned in the most productive departments. [R, abr.]
71.6692 MATTAN, Andrew J. A. ; SMALL, Tamara A. —
The picture superiority effect suggests that a single photograph can communicate a significant amount of political information to voters. Accordingly, politicians must make strategic choices in their self-presentation, particularly when considering how to respond to gender-based stereotypes. Strategic stereotype theory suggests that politicians will either emphasize or rescind gender-based stereotypes depending on whether they believe them to be advantageous to their political image. While the literature on gendered self-presentation is largely confined to television advertising, there is a growing literature focused on the online environment. In this research note, we develop a methodological framework to assess gender-based stereotypes in a purely visual environment. We test the framework using photographs from the Twitter feeds of the main party leaders in the 2018 Ontario election. [R, abr.]
71.6693 MAZZONI, Marco ; MINCIGRUCCI, Roberto —
One of the most prominent personalities of contemporary Italian politics is Matteo Salvini, the leader of the Lega (League). Salvini is not only a popular politician: he can also be considered a celebrity. He became a recognizable character through his constant presence in the popular media and his habit of appearing in informal contexts. Through an analysis of three of the main Italian gossip magazines (Chi, Oggi and Vanity Fair) between February 2017 and February 2018, we provide an overview of the coverage obtained by Salvini in the gossip press, in order to understand what type of celebrity emerges and how it contributed to conveying his political message. Our main hypothesis is that he has been able to appear both as a ‘super celebrity politician’ and as an ‘everyday celebrity politician’, meaning someone similar to ordinary people. [R]
71.6694 McCLENDON, Gwyneth ; RIEDL, Rachel Beatty —
The effects of religion on political behavior are difficult to study for a number of reasons. One difficulty is that “religion” is not a singular entity and is thus unlikely to have a unidirectional effect on political behavior. Another difficulty is that everyone in a particular place and time might be embedded in the same set of religious practices, such that the counterfactual is difficult to assess. In response to these and other challenges, we suggest opening up the black box of religion in order to examine the influence of its component parts. Specifically, we focus on exposure to sermons. We describe a study about the impact of Christian sermons in sub-Saharan Africa on reactions to inequality. [R, abr.]
71.6695 McGOVERN, Rhonda ; THORNE, Peter —
The Citizens’ Assembly, a form of deliberative mini-public, tasked 99 ordinary Irish citizens with the responsibility of deliberating on five topics, after which they made recommendations to government. Throughout assembly meetings members were presented with up-to-date accurate information from experts. ‘How the State can make Ireland a leader in tackling climate change’ was considered third by the assembly over two weekends. On the final day the citizens voted on thirteen strongly endorsed recommendations for government to act on. The release of the final report in April 2018 saw a further four ancillary recommendations added. There was considerable media coverage surrounding the Citizens’ Assembly for this topic. This research undertakes a content analysis of four national media sources over fifteen-months; the Farmers Journal, the Irish Independent, The Irish Times and TheJournal.ie. [R, abr.]
71.6696 McMILLAN, Kate ; BARKER, Fiona —
This article provides the first systematic study of the political content of New Zealand’s Chinese and Indian print and online news media during an election campaign period. We assess the comprehensiveness and political balance of election coverage provided by a sample of high-circulation New Zealand-based Chinese and Indian news publications during New Zealand’s 2017 campaign. Overall, we find all the publications in our sample under-reported minor parties and, in some cases, the quantity and tone of their reporting demonstrated strong bias towards the National Party. These findings are significant in a context where such media play an important role in informing ethnic and immigrant minorities during campaigns, and where such minorities form a growing proportion of the New Zealand electorate. [R]
71.6697 MELLY, Paul —
This piece explores the role played by mass protest alongside other factors — a national security crisis, failings in political leadership, popular anger at corruption, and, ultimately, a military coup — in leading to the removal from office of Mali’s democratically elected president in August 2020. This journalistic account of the Mali crisis shows how the demonstrations played a critical role in creating a mood in the capital city, Bamako, in which a military putsch could bring a new leader into power while also reducing political tensions. Although the subsequent negotiation over transitional power left opposition political factions largely unsatisfied, the opposition may find that this works to their advantage because the new interim government will have to confront daunting national challenges before upcoming elections due to restore constitutional democracy by March 2022. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6698 MERKLEY, Eric —
This article presents the results of three studies that test for partisan and ideological bias using the Digital Democracy Project’s study of the 2019 Canadian election. Study 1 uses a conjoint experiment where respondents choose from pairs of hypothetical news stories where the slant of the source and headline are both randomized. Study 2 tests for partisan-motivated responsiveness to elite cues with a policy vignette that manipulates the presence of party elite cues and a motivational prime. Study 3 requires respondents to solve a randomly assigned numeracy task that is either political or nonpolitical in nature. Results suggest that Canadians (1) select politically congenial information, though not sources of such information, (2) follow elite cues when partisan motivation is primed and (3) evaluate evidence in ways that are biased by their ideological beliefs. [R, abr.]
71.6699 MERKOVITY, Norbert ; STUMPF, Peter Bence —
This study examines the one-minute news blocks aired during the 2018 FIFA World Cup games on Hungarian public television. The analysed short segments were used to direct viewer attention to a narrow range of migration-related news items and implemented reporting on the refugees as a framing device for domestic and international political conflicts. The topics provided a context for world events that overwhelmingly benefited the government’s narrative on the situation. This effect was achieved by a synergy of episodic and thematic frames that were used to explain the behaviour of political actors, substantially simplifying them to pro- and anti-immigration parties. [R]
71.6700 MICHAELS, Jay L., et al. —
Research about the religion and environmental attitudes relationship in the United States has yielded mixed results. Some studies find that religion relates to heightened concern about environmental threats and greater environmental interest whereas others find religion relates to diminished concern and interest. A new perspective that applies ideas from psychology and sociology may help resolve these discrepant findings. It is hypothesized that religious meaning reduces concern with environmental threats since meaning helps people cope with distressing stimuli. This reduction is specific to threats and does not extend to environmental interest. Using the 2016 General Social Survey to test this hypothesis, after controlling for sociodemographic and political variables, structural equation modeling shows Americans who are more religious experience diminished sense of danger from environmental threats, yet exhibit heightened general environmental interest. [R, abr.]
71.6701 MIETZNER, Marcus —
There is widespread agreement that compared to most other states in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s central government has offered a poor response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. The government of President Joko Widodo initially ignored the threat, and when it did react, the crisis policies were piecemeal and confusing. But what explains this outcome? It would be easy to attribute Indonesia’s response to its lower middle-income status or its democratic governance structures that lack strong repressive capacity. With countries poorer and more democratic than Indonesia performing better, however, this explanation is unsatisfactory. Going beyond simple development and regime categories, this article proposes that Indonesia’s COVID-19 response was the result of its specific process of democratic decline in the last decade. [R, abr.]
71.6702 MILLER, Jennifer A. ; GRUBESIC, Tony H. —
The outcome of the 2016 presidential election in the US was partly influenced by factors such as social marginalization and anti-immigrant sentiment, both of which have been associated with the global rise in far-right voting (FRV) outcomes. Sociological hypotheses such as group threat and group contact have been suggested as potential contextual factors in the relationship between immigrant share and far-right support; more recently, the halo effect has been used as a spatial mechanism to explore these relationships. Briefly, the halo effect describes increased FRV in ethnically homogeneous areas that are near ethnically diverse areas. This study addressed the spatial distribution of the halo effect in the 2016 US presidential election and used geographically weighted regression to explore spatial nonstationarity in the relationships between socio-economic factors and Republican (GOP) support. [R, abr.]
71.6703 MIRAGLIOTTA, Narelle —
While parties in established democracies have shown increasing reluctance to forge exclusive ties to organisational mediators, they have not discarded these connections. This article considers one under-explored party organisational mediator, party think tanks. In an in-depth Australian study, this article examines the significance of party think tanks as mechanisms for party linkage. It proposes that such vehicles harness some of the strengths intrinsic to affiliated external organisations and party subgroups in ways which are more responsive to the challenge of linkage confronting modern parties. The Australia case suggests that party think tanks are used to assist parties to connect to old and new interest constituencies in flexible ways while limiting parties’ exposure to electoral and political risk. [R, abr.]
71.6704 MISHRA, Sangay ; LOKANEETA, Jinee —
After 9/11, law enforcement agencies in Southern California attempted to implement trust and cooperation approaches toward Muslim communities as part of counterterrorism policing. Based on interviews with key law enforcement officials and Muslim community leaders, alongside analysis of legal cases, reports, and media coverage, we argue that these trust and cooperation approaches have failed for three main reasons. First, law enforcement agencies failed to separate community outreach and intelligence gathering, and second, local and federal agencies engaged in extensive coordination in the name of efficiency. Both of these actions have led to hostility and distrust within the Muslim communities. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6339]
71.6705 MOLLOY, Edward —
While the role of religion in the production of nationalism has been subjected to uneven forms of scrutiny, most of these approaches rely on an implicit or explicit identification between sectarian affiliation and the dominant social group articulating a particular form of nationalism. This article will create a more nuanced picture by demonstrating the influence of a rhetoric of religiosity originating from a social group that generally resisted incorporation into a nationalist movement. It will do this by locating nineteenth century Irish nationalist John Mitchel firmly within a tradition of Presbyterianism at a time that his co-religionists were dominated by unionism and nationalism was taking on an increasingly Catholic orientation. This will show the difficulties of applying classic accounts of religion and nationalism to the Irish context. [R, abr.]
71.6706 MONGRAIN, Philippe —
The expectations of voters regarding election outcomes appear to be mostly influenced by their own political preferences. This raises two important questions. First, once partisan predispositions have been accounted for, how much do other variables like interest in the campaign, election news attentiveness, political knowledge, education or competitiveness help to explain one’s ability at predicting election outcomes? Second, does one’s level of sophistication moderate the link between political preferences and forecasting abilities? To answer these questions, I mobilize data from seven elections taken at the district and (sub)national levels. I also introduce a new measure of forecasting ability — the cumulative Brier score index. In most cases, variables other than preferences and knowledge have little or no influence on the accuracy of voters’ expectations both at the (sub)national and district levels. [R, abr.]
71.6707 MORIN, Jason L. ; MEJÍA, Yoshira Macías ; SANCHEZ, Gabriel R. —
We test whether perceptions of Latino-linked fate influence partisan identification and voting behavior among the Latino electorate across time. Specifically, we contend that attachments to the Latino community have become more widely used heuristics for Latino voters due to an increase in anti-immigrant (Latino) sentiment. Moreover, growing attachments to the Latino community have the potential to influence partisanship and even compete with traditional partisan loyalties (i.e., partisan heuristics) at the polls. To test our argument, we rely on multiple surveys of Latino likely voters with similar measures that span over a decade and a half. Our results indicate that perceptions of linked fate, to varying degrees, are associated with Latino’s decisions to identify with the Democratic Party. [R, abr.]
71.6708 MORITZ, Jessie —
Studies of the Middle East following the Arab Spring have concluded that ‘repression works’, especially in the oil- and gas-rich countries of the Gulf. Drawing on primary materials collected during fieldwork trips to Bahrain, the US and Britain, this article nuances the ‘repression effect’ by tracing the emergence of a transnational Bahraini opposition, mapping the relationships and joint activities between domestic and exiled Bahraini groups, international NGOs and western policy-makers. It finds that even in the context of domestic repression and continuing ideological divides within Bahrain’s opposition, transnational networks have not only sustained opposition organizations, but also maintained access to foreign policy-makers, producing repeated criticisms of the Bahraini regime and legal challenges to ruling elites who visit western states. The successes of this advocacy are modest. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6974]
71.6709 MOSER, Scott ; RODRÍGUEZ, Abel ; LOFLAND, Chelsea L. —
We extend classical ideal point estimation to allow voters to have different preferences when voting in different domains — for example, when voting on agricultural policy than when voting on defense policy. Our scaling procedure results in estimated ideal points on a common scale. As a result, we are able to directly compare a member’s revealed preferences across different domains of voting (different sets of motions) to assess if, for example, a member votes more conservatively on agriculture motions than on defense. We illustrate the model by estimating US House of Representatives members’ revealed preferences in different policy domains, and identify several other potential applications of the model including: studying the relationship between committee and floor voting behavior; and investigating constituency influence and representation. [R, abr.]
71.6710 MUELLER, Lisa —
This article compares contemporary protest in sub-Saharan Africa and in other regions while acknowledging intra-regional variations. New technology has led to some convergence in protest tactics, but African protests retain several distinct features. These include class alliances and the continued use of "old" media, in contrast with the class conflict and a greater reliance on "new" media characterizing protests [elsewhere]. The nature of African protests reflects broad trends in African political economy, namely chronic poverty and a string of presidents reneging on democratic bargains forged in the 1990s. The scale of poverty and a longer experience with democracy set sub-Saharan Africa apart from North Africa and the Middle East. African protesters have enjoyed some notable victories, suggesting that activists elsewhere might gain from borrowing their strategies. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6711 MUELLER, Sean ; GERBER, Marlène ; SCHAUB, Hans‐Peter —
This paper assesses collective voting as a specific mode of democratic decision‐making and compares it to secret voting. Under collective voting, voters gather in one place and decide by the show of hands. We theorise two potential advantages and two disadvantages of collective voting so defined. We then draw on original survey data from one of the largest polities practising collective voting, the citizen assembly of the Swiss canton of Glarus. We find that both the promises and pitfalls of non‐secret voting are exaggerated. Non‐secret voting’s suspected pitfalls — social pressure and abstention — do not generally materialise in our sample, although for women they do appear to be relevant to some extent. However, the promises of collective voting — enabling cue‐taking and discursive bridging and bonding — are equally realised to a limited extent only. [R]
71.6712 MURAOKA, Taishi —
Cognitively demanding electoral systems increase the chance that voters make their choices based on politically irrelevant cues. To illustrate this argument, I analyze the effect of candidate name complexity — a visual cue that contains no politically meaningful information — in Japan, where voters need to write their preferred candidate’s name on a blank ballot paper. I find that when electoral systems require voters to weigh a large number of candidates and simultaneously reduce the usefulness of partisan cues, candidates with more complex names tend to receive lower vote shares. By contrast, under less cognitively demanding systems, candidate name complexity has no effect on election outcomes. [R, abr.]
71.6713 MUSIL, Pelin Ayan ; MAZE, Jacob —
While the literature on rebel-to-party transformation focused on formation of parties at the end of civil wars, in this study, we address the phenomenon of a political party that co-exists alongside a rebel group during a lengthy civil war. We define this party as a ‘pro-rebel party,’ which is constrained by the rebel group but adheres to the legal order by offering candidates in elections. Based on the case of pro-Kurdish parties in Turkey, we argue that pro-rebel parties experience ideological and organisational pluralisation in structures with increasing opportunities and reinforce a counter-hegemonic struggle against a one-sided state discourse. [R]
71.6714 MYAGKOV, Mikhail, et al. —
The article presents the results of the analysis of online activities in Vkontakte groups for followers of Alexei Navalny, the opposition politician. Online activities were measured at times of elections in all Russian regions: the State Duma of the Russian Federation elections of 18 September 2016, and the presidential elections of 18 March 2018. An Online Activity Index was introduced to measure online activities of the opposition supporters. We determined that online activities of opposition supporters are mostly concentrated in the largest economic hubs of the Russian Federation like Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Kray, etc. Online activities of Navalny’s supporters tend to change significantly. In 2016 there was a visible 24 decline of online activities after the State Duma elections, however, in 2018 we have seen the dramatic 268 growth of activity among Navalny’s supporters after the presidential elections. [R]
71.6715 NAVARRETE, Rosa M. —
Do ideological orientations have different effects on citizens without party ties, citizens who identify with a particular party and citizens who identify with other parties? What conditional effects do partisan and ideological orientations have on the vote? Difficulties and controversies over definitions of partisanship and left-right ideology, their reciprocal effects and how these are overshadowed in analyses including both heuristics have discouraged scholars from conducting extensive comparative research on this topic. I test to what extent the effects of left-right orientations on voting differ depending on party attachments and how this relationship is influenced by party polarization. Results using data from 77 harmonized national studies in 17 European countries suggest that the effects of partisanship on vote choice are not additive to those of left-right orientations, while the latter are conditional on party identification. [R, abr.]
71.6716 NEMČOK, Miroslav —
In divided societies and new democracies, clientelism (in the form of pork barrel) and ethno-politics appear to go hand in hand. It is apparent that politicians are incentivized to compete for support within their own ethnic groups, but does an ethnic link between voters and decision-makers influence how voters perceive and evaluate pork barrel practices? To address this question, we conducted a survey experiment (n = 1200) in ethnically heterogeneous Slovakia. The aim was to examine whether pork barrel politics implemented by a Slovak decision-maker and a Hungarian decisionmaker are evaluated differently by Slovaks and Hungarians. [R, abr.]
71.6717 NEWMAN, Benjamin, et al. —
This article explores the effect of explicitly racial and inflammatory speech by political elites on mass citizens in a societal context where equality norms are widespread and generally heeded yet a subset of citizens nonetheless possesses deeply ingrained racial prejudices. The authors argue that such speech should have an ‘emboldening effect’ among the prejudiced, particularly where it is not clearly and strongly condemned by other elite political actors. To test this argument, the study focuses on the case of the Trump campaign for president in the US, and utilizes a survey experiment embedded within an online panel study. In the presence of prejudiced elite speech — particularly when it is tacitly condoned by other elites — the study finds that the prejudiced are emboldened to both express and act upon their prejudices. [R, abr.]
71.6718 NITZA-MAKOWSKA, Agnieszka —
The hierarchical organization of society and the lack of distinction between the public and private sphere in Hinduism and Islam are cultural features of India and Pakistan that seem inconsistent with democracy. Reservation policy and the recognition of the most popular regional languages both demonstrate the adjustment of India’s democratic framework to the caste system and the arithmetic of ethnic groups respectively. In contrast to the India National Congress, the Muslim League refused to introduce similar solutions in Pakistan. The recent radicalization, marked by the rise of the BJP in India and the entrance of Islamist agenda to mainstream politics in Pakistan, have triggered tendencies towards authoritarianism. This paper reconsiders the similarities between the impact of the majority religion’s public presence on the post-2014 India and Pakistani regime trajectories. [R, abr.]
71.6719 NORDØ, Åsta Dyrnes —
Recent studies question the centrality of party cues in shaping public opinion. This study advances the literature with a four‐wave panel survey design that measures citizens’ policy opinions before, during and after a controversial policy proposal to ban street begging was made by the Norwegian government in 2014. Two main findings inform previous work. First, voters are modestly affected by party cues as the proposition turns salient. Second, when a party shifts their policy position on a highly salient issue, voters do not automatically shift their opinions accordingly. Thus, the magnitude and direction of opinion change in the electorate indicate that party cue effects are modest and that instead of polarizing patterns across time parallel publics moving in the same direction independent of party cues are detected. [R, abr.]
71.6720 NTETA, Tatishe M. ; RICE, Douglas —
Have arguments concerning the link between black economic well-being and undocumented immigration become commonplace in the rhetoric of [US] Republican elites, and if so, does exposure to these appeals impact black vote-choice? Employing data from over forty years of congressional speeches, the campaign speeches and public addresses of President Donald Trump, televised campaign advertisements from the Wisconsin/Wesleyan Advertising Projects, and a survey experiment embedded in the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we find that Republican elected officials have increasingly made substantive appeals to blacks on the issue of immigration reform, that exposure to this type of substantive appeal leads blacks to more strongly support a fictional Republican candidate, and that this support is moderated by a respondent’s level of linked fate. [R, abr.]
71.6721 OLESEN, Thomas —
We know surprisingly little about how whistleblowing is perceived in the wider population. Drawing on a representative survey of Danish employees (N = 1,709), this paper analyses how whistleblower public support is distributed along variables such as political preference, political interest and job type, and tests whether it is conditional on whistleblower motivation and type of wrongdoing. The paper finds that public support is strong but also ambivalent. It shows that support is evenly distributed along party preference. It also demonstrates that support is not uniform but conditional on the characteristics of the whistleblower situation. These insights are important for both social and political reasons in the present situation where whistleblowing seems to be on the rise. From a policy perspective, it offers policymakers an important evidence‐based navigation tool in devising whistleblower legislation. [R, abr.]
71.6722 OLIVER, Steven ; OSTWALD, Kai —
Singapore’s 2020 general election was held amidst the country’s most serious public health and economic crises in the country’s history. Despite expectations that these parallel crises would precipitate a flight to safety and result in a strong performance by the dominant People’s Action Party (PAP), the ruling party received its third lowest popular vote share (61.2%) and lowest ever seat share (89.2%) since independence. This article engages explanations for the unexpected results and argues that the vote swing against the PAP was enabled by a hitherto largely overlooked factor: the 2020 election included two opposition parties that could credibly compete with the PAP on the valence considerations that drive voting behaviour in Singapore, giving voters a perceived safe alternative to the PAP at the constituency level. [R, abr.]
71.6723 OSKOOII, Kassra A. R. ; LAJEVARDI, Nazita ; COLLINGWOOD, Loren —
On January 27, 2017, President Trump signed executive order 13769, which denied citizens of seven Muslim-majority countries entry into the US. Opposition to what was termed the “Muslim ban” quickly amassed, producing sudden shifts to the information environment and to individuallevel preferences. The study examines whether within-subject shifts against the ban lasted over an extended period of time. Evidence from a three-wave panel study indicates that individual-level opinions, once they shifted against the ban, remained fairly stable one year later. Analysis of a large corpus of cable broadcast transcripts and newspaper articles further demonstrates that coverage of the ban from February 2017 to January 2018 did not dissipate, remained largely critical, and lacked any significant counter-narratives to potentially alter citizens’ preferences once again. [R, abr.]
71.6724 OSTROWSKI, Marius S. —
In three of the last four [British] general elections, the progressive [left/centre‐left] bloc won an appreciably larger share of the popular vote than its reactionary [right/centre‐right] rival. Yet its greater internal fragmentation has been repeatedly punished under first past the post, leading to what is now over a decade of Conservative‐led governments. This has prompted growing pressure to form a ‘progressive alliance’ between Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and their Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish nationalist competitors. This article [examines] these demands, examining the difficulties other similar efforts at progressive cooperation have faced across the world. It considers how progressive alliances have previously sought to overcome geographical, ideological, and social divides between their constituent members, and draws some salutary lessons for British progressives today. [R, abr.]
71.6725 OVÁDEK, Michal —
Since its birth as an independent republic in 1993, Slovakia has been served by five different presidents. Due to limited competences, the presidents’ have often relied on political speech as their principal tool to influence political developments. However, text as a source of data has been largely neglected in existing scholarship on Central European presidents. In this exploratory study, I classify the content of presidential speeches using a topic model and analyse topical patterns over time and across different presidents. I find that topical variation can provide useful insights into relevant issues such as agenda shifts or intra-executive conflict. [R]
71.6726 OZTIG, Lacin Idil ; GURKAN, Turkan Ayda ; AYDIN, Kenan —
exponential increases in votes for anti-Islam political parties in national elections. These parties portray Islam and Muslims as threats and maintain a position that Islam (as a religion and culture) is a threatening contrast to European values. By analysing Islamophobic discourses of the French National Front, Alternative for Germany and the Dutch Freedom Party, this article argues that Islamophobic populism targets not only Muslims, but also the incumbent leaders. By looking at the current dynamics of public opinion, this article explains how Islamophobic populism functions as an electoral strategy. ]
71.6727 PACHECO, Julianna —
Although research on the link between health and political behavior at the individual level has flourished, there have been no systematic analyses regarding the policy consequences of health inequalities in political voice. Using a unique dataset that measures the health bias in voter turnout across the fifty [US] states from 1996 to 2012, I find that state electorates that are disproportionately more representative of healthy citizens spend less on health and have less generous Medicaid programs. The negative relationship between the degree of health bias in state electorates and these outcomes remain after controlling for the degree of class bias in voter turnout. These findings have important implications for democratic theory and policy responsiveness, as well as our understanding of variations in population health and health policy across the American states. [R]
71.6728 PAGET, Dan —
‘The elite’ in ideational and discursive conceptions of populism has gone ill-defined. This makes conceptions of populism elastic. This article asserts that a discourse should only qualify as populist if it constructs an elite that acts in its collective interests and possesses a majority of power across fields. These criteria narrow the definition of populism and reveals another type of discourse, christened here ‘elitist plebeianism’. While populists bifurcate society between ‘the people’ and ‘the elite’, elitist plebeians trifurcate society between ‘the common people’, ‘the elite’ and a middle stratum. While populists vilify the elite, elitist plebeians heroize it and vilify the middle. In office, populists struggle to reconcile their power and their opposition to the powerful; elitist plebeians do not. This similarity in terms and structure facilitates the movement between populist and elitist plebeian discourses. [R, abr.]
71.6729 PARDINI, Chelsea A. ; ESPINOLA-ARREDONDO, Ana —
Previous game-theoretic analyses of the settlement of the US assume that Indigenous peoples and settler colonizers either engaged in free exchange or total war for land. We reframe the model to consider that violence, including coercion, was present in most of their interactions; that is, we allow for the settler colonizer to engage in coercion to strategically lower their appropriation costs for Indigenous peoples’ lands. We find that the settler strategically uses violence to pay less in exchanges for Indigenous peoples’ lands. In addition, we examine how uncertainty, about whether an agreement can ensure the avoidance of all-out conflict, affects initial violence and resistance. We find that the likelihood of all-out conflict affects settler violence and it critically depends on whether the Indigenous people can seek compensation. [R]
71.6730 PATKÓS, Veronika ; SZÁNTÓ, András —
Recently, considerable theoretical literature has emerged on voters’ sophistication and its effect on democratic functioning. Some works argue that the political choices of more sophisticated voters lead to more favourable social outcomes (J. Brennan, Against democracy Princeton U. P., 2017; I. Somin, Democracy and political ignorance: Why smaller government is smarter, Stanford U. P., 2016). However, C. H. Achen and L. M. Bartels (Democracy for realists: Why elections do not produce Responsive government, Princeton U. P., 2016) argue that sophisticated citizens are at least as biased as the unsophisticated. This paper aims to clarify this link by investigating the role of education, information acquisition, and interest on bias. The question is tested on European Social Survey data. The results show that the level of bias is independent of education but is significantly related to both interest and newspaper reading. [R, abr.]
71.6731 PAXTON, Fred ; PEACE, Timothy —
Populist radical right (PRR) parties have increasingly occupied positions of power in recent years, inspiring much scholarly interest in the mainstreaming consequences of government responsibility. This article analyses the extent and manner of mainstreaming of the Rassemblement National (RN) while in power at the local level of government in France. A municipal-level focus enables the novel inclusion of the party into the debate about the consequences of government participation for the PRR. We conduct a paired case study analysis of RN-led Hénin-Beaumont, the political base of Marine Le Pen and her ‘de-demonization’ strategy, alongside nearby Lens, which is led by a mainstream party. [R, abr.]
71.6732 PERERA, Isabel M. ; KING, Desmond —
Rising economic inequality has aggravated long-standing labor market disparities, with one exception: government employment. This article considers the puzzle of black-white wage parity in the American public sector. African Americans are more likely to work in the public than in the private sector, and their wages are higher there. The article builds on prior work emphasizing institutional factors conditioning this outcome to argue that employee mobilization can motor it. As public sector unions gained political influence postwar, their large constituencies of black, blue-collar workers, drawing on both militant and nonviolent tactics of the urbanizing civil rights movement, advocated for improved working conditions. Archival sources confirm this pattern at the federal level. [R, abr.]
71.6733 PETERS, Yvette —
Do multilevel structures of governance affect representation? This study examines how regionalization and globalization are related to social policy responsiveness. It has been argued that the interests of nonpopular actors, such as international organizations or private corporations, have gained importance in determining public policies. Moreover, national governments have delegated decision-making capabilities down to subnational authorities. These developments might constrain governments in their policymaking, leading them to be less responsive to their citizens’ preferences. I investigate whether the relation between public opinion and welfare state effort is affected by globalization and decentralization. To examine these relations and possible explanations, I analyze data from the European Social Survey (2002-2012) and from Eurostat using a timeseries cross-sectional approach. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6387]
71.6734 PETERSON, Erik —
Shrinking audiences and political coverage cutbacks threaten newspapers’ ability to inform the public about politics. Despite substantial theorizing and widespread concern, it remains unclear how much the public can learn from these struggling news sources. I link measures of the newspaper-produced information environment with large-scale surveys that capture the public’s awareness of their member of Congress. This shows the contemporary effects of newspapers on representative-specific awareness are one-half to one-third estimates from earlier eras. Despite this decline newspapers remain an important contributor to political awareness in a changing media landscape, even for those with limited political interest. These results establish broader scope conditions under which the public can learn from the media environment. [R]
71.6735 PETERSON, Erik —
Media outlets provide crucial inputs into the democratic process, yet they face increasingly severe economic challenges. I study how a newly salient manifestation of this pressure, reduced reporting capacity, influences political coverage. Focusing on newspapers in the United States, where industry‐wide employment fell over 40% between 2007 and 2015, I use panel data to assess the relationship between reporting capacity and political coverage. Staff cuts substantially decrease the amount of political coverage newspapers provide. Across different samples and measurement approaches, a typical cutback to a newspaper’s reporting staff reduces its annual political coverage by between 300 and 500 stories. These political news declines happen against the backdrop of similar reductions in nonpolitical coverage, meaning the share of newspaper articles focused on politics remains stable over this period. [R, abr.]
71.6736 PETERSON, Erik ; GOEL, Sharad ; IYENGAR, Shanto —
Where do partisans get their election news in the contemporary media environment? We track the online news consumption of a national sample during the 2016 presidential campaign. We find levels of partisan isolation in news exposure are two to three times greater than in prior studies, although the absolute level of isolation remains modest. The partisan divide for election-related news exceeds the divide for non-political news. This tendency of partisans to follow like-minded news providers occurs despite the relatively small differences in the partisan slant of the content offered by the majority of sources they visited. Finally, we find that partisans who gravitated to congenial news providers did not shift their evaluations of the presidential candidates during the campaign. [R]
71.6737 PETITPAS, Adrien ; JAQUET, Julien M. ; SCIARINI, Pascal —
Empirical evidence suggests that e-voting has no measurable effects on turnout. However, existing studies did (or could) not look at e-voting effects on the individual level. We innovate by analyzing whether and to what extent the availability of e-voting fosters turnout among specific groups of citizens, and how this influences the equality of participation. To that end, we estimate Bayesian multi-level models on a unique set of official data on citizens’ participation covering 30 ballots between 2008 and 2016 in Geneva, Switzerland, which has the most far-reaching experience with evoting worldwide. Despite the fact that e-voting was added to an easy-touse form of postal voting, we find that offering e-voting has increased turnout among abstainers and occasional voters. [R, abr.]
71.6738 PEUCKER, Mario, et al. —
Commemorating wars plays an important role in reinforcing a sense of national identity in many countries. R. N. Bellah’s work on civil religion ["Civil religion in America", Daedalus 96 (1): 1-21, 1967] argues that such commemorations have a quasi-sacred character and can have cohesiveinclusive and coercive-exclusive effects. This article examines how references to the Australian New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) are incorporated into far-right messaging online where the Anzac legend is typically discussed with the purpose of conveying a nostalgic image of a narrowly defined, exclusionary national identity. Unconditional glorification of Anzac is used as a benchmark of acceptance, often linked to anti-Muslim messaging and sometimes embedded in a White supremacy agenda. The official Anzac commemorations remain mute to far-right attempts to use Anzac for their own political mobilisation. [R]
71.6739 PFAHL-TRAUGHBER, Armin —
The serial murders committed by the neo-Nazi group National Socialist Underground (NSU) must be seen in a right-wing terrorist context. To this end, it is useful to look at the history of such violent phenomena before and after the NSU. In this way, the particularities of the NSU become clear that distinguish it from other right-wing terrorist phenomena. There are important specifics, for example, in the intensity of violence, communication and organizational form. A look at developments after the NSU also shows that the recognizable dynamics have continued in a different form. This facilitates the establishment of right-wing terrorist structures, which, however, are more likely to continue to exist in small groups acting independently. [R, abr.]
71.6740 PIAZZA, James —
Are proponents of Islamic government in the Arab World more likely to support violent extremist groups like ISIS? Previous research indicates that the answer to this question is dependent on individuals’ beliefs about what constitutes proper Islamic government. In this study I theorize that individuals’ beliefs about the compatibility of Islamic government and democracy is a key predictor of support for armed groups like ISIS. Using 2017 survey data from six Arab countries I find that ‘nondemocratic Islamists’ — those who favor the implementation of Shari’a law and clerical rule but believe Islam to be incompatible with democratic principles — are significantly more likely to express support for ISIS. In contrast ‘democratic Islamists’ — those who view Islamic Government to be congruent with democratic rule — are not more likely to endorse ISIS goals or tactics. [R, abr.]
71.6741 PICKERING, David —
This article attempts to set up a conversation between certain aspects of the considerable scholarship on rhetoric and populist identity, on the one hand, and the historical perspectives on American populism provided by Michael Kazin; Christopher Lasch and a recent set of studies of the history of presidential rhetoric. It ends with tentative reflections on the effects of these historical perspectives for contemporary discussions. [R]
71.6742 PIERSKALLA, Jan H., et al. —
Civil service organizations in the developing world often lack women and minorities in leadership positions. This has important consequences for the quality of public goods provision and the perceived trustworthiness of bureaucrats. We explore the effect of democratization on the discrimination of women and minorities in the civil service. We argue democratization leads to increased discrimination due to the politicization of identity cleavages. We test our argument using administrative data from Indonesia that cover the career histories of more than four million active civil servants. We exploit the exogenous timing of Indonesia’s democratization and the staggered introduction of local direct elections for identification purposes. We find strong evidence that democratization worsened the career prospects of female and some religious minority bureaucrats. [R, abr.]
71.6743 PLESCIA, Carolina ; SEVI, Semra ; BLAIS, André —
Interest in voting by mail has increased during the coronavirus as a way to avoid in person contact. We conducted a survey in February 2020 in the US to examine citizen preferences to cast their ballot at a polling station, over the internet, or by mail. By including simultaneously internet and mail as alternative voting options to the polling station we aim to disentangle convenience (both alternative options are presumably more convenient) from novelty (internet is more novel than mail and polling station voting). We find that the person who likes voting by mail the most is an older White-American with little interest in politics; and the person who likes voting by mail the least is a younger African-American or Latino with high interest in politics. [R, abr.]
71.6744 POKALOVA, Elena ; KAROSANIDZE, Tinatin —
In 2013, international news headlines started referencing Georgian Tarkhan Batirashvili, or Omar al-Shishani, as a rising star among foreign fighters in the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). At the time, it was puzzling why a Georgian Kist would fight for ISIS. However, following al-Shishani, around 200 other residents of Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge travelled to Syria and Iraq. The trend raised numerous questions about radicalization in this country with very limited experience with terrorism. This article examines why so many Pankisi Kists departed for Syria and Iraq. Specifically, we analyse the impact of the neighbouring insurgencies in the North Caucasus and examine how the Chechen conflicts shaped the emergence of radicalism in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge. The article traces how the movement of individuals, equipment and ideas to and from Chechnya impacted the Muslim identity of the local population in Pankisi. [R]
71.6745 PUT, Gert-Jan —
The friends-and-neighbors effect, which refers to voters’ tendency to support politicians near hometown areas, has not yet been tested systematically for party leaders. Linking a built-for-purpose dataset on 266 leaders to a sample of 380,208 voters from 50 country elections in 19 parliamentary democracies drawn from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) project, this article examines the effect of party leaders’ local proximity on voters’ leader evaluations and voting intentions. I hypothesize that leaders receive more positive evaluations and electoral support from voters in the district where they run for election. The results show that shared district increases voters’ sympathy for leaders and their inclination to vote for the party of ‘near’ leaders. [R, abr.]
71.6746 PUT, Gert-Jan ; SMULDERS, Jef ; MADDENS, Bart —
Previous studies on flexible-list systems demonstrate that party selectorates promote candidates with a high number of preference votes to better list positions in the next election. This research note asks whether these rank promotions are limited to candidates in unrealistic list positions at the lower end of the ballot or also include candidates moving into realistic list positions (i.e., electorally safer highest ranks). Using a longitudinal data-set of candidates for 18 parliamentary elections in Flanders (Belgium), we first successfully replicate the earlier established preference vote-effect on future list positions, but subsequently show that promotions from unrealistic to realistic positions are relatively rare. Moreover, preference votes do not seem to affect the ability to move upwards on the list or to receive a realistic position at the next election when controlling for incumbency and list position at the previous election. [R, abr.]
71.6747 QUIRICO, Roberto Di —
The first Conte government, which led Italy from 2018 until early September 2019, was the first government in the EU to express a negative attitude to the Euro. Both parties that formed the government (the Lega and the Movimento 5 Stelle) opposed the Eurozone and the common currency and repeatedly proposed to take Italy out of the Euro or at least to consult Italian citizens about this possibility. Although anti-Euro proposals disappeared from the Government’s programme, EU institutions and the financial markets perceived a concrete risk of Italexit. The fear of Italexit and the confrontational approach to the EU institutions adopted by the new government generated financial tension and a rise in the spread on Italian government bonds, thereby contributing to internal conflict within the Italian government and its final collapse. [R, abr.]
71.6748 RAISI, Alireza —
Despite a rich body of scholarship in social movements and electoral studies, the interaction between electoral turnout and protest participation has been generally overlooked. This article aims to bridge this gap by examining the impact of electoral participation on the likelihood of protest activities in developing countries. Drawing from a statistical analysis of a unique set of data from Iran’s 2017 election and the following uprising, the article argues that a higher electoral turnout reduces the likelihood of protest incidence at the district level. The analysis further indicates that such turnout mediates between economic grievances and protest participation. [R]
71.6749 RASMUSSEN, Magnus B. ; KNUTSEN, Carl Henrik —
This article argues that the extent to which political parties are institutionalized shapes welfare state development. Institutionalized parties allow politicians to overcome co-ordination problems, avoid capture by special interests and form stable linkages with broad social groups. These features both enable and incentivize politicians to pursue extensive welfare policies. The study employs measures of party institutionalization and welfare state features to study these proposed relationships. Even when accounting for country- and year-fixed effects and plausible confounders such as electoral system, unionization, regime type and state capacity, the authors find clear relationships between party institutionalization and more extensive and universal welfare states. Focusing on universalism, they find that the relationship is more pronounced when constraints on executives are strong and in democracies, but that it also exists in autocracies. [R, abr.]
71.6750 RAUH, Jonathan —
Evidence for declining trust in government is often presented as the difference between the present day and an idealized period of high trust in government. The fact is, though, trust in government, in many OECD countries, was relatively low historically and remains so now. This questions whether one can definitively state that trust is declining. If trust in government is not declining but instead fluctuating, then the effects of declining trust on political and policy outcomes may be overstated. Additionally, if trust is relatively stable, then it suggests that marginal shifts in trust may be affected by specific policy actions rather than large shifts in citizens’ attitudes. Using a simple yet powerful tool, the Sequential Probability Ratio Test, this analysis tests whether trust is in general decline. [R, abr.]
71.6751 REILLY, Benjamin —
Centripetal approaches to democracy in divided societies seek to promote inter-ethnic accommodation and moderation by making politicians dependent on the electoral support of groups other than their own base. Such cross-ethnic voting stands in contrast to situations where politicians need only the support of their own co-ethnics to win elections. This distinction can be used to evaluate the utility of centripetal electoral systems in promoting voting across ethnic divides. To do so, this article begins by considering some critiques of centripetalism, showing that cross-ethnic voting is more common in both institutional design and actual practice than some critics believe. It then moves on to examine cases of cross-ethnic voting via ethnically designated party lists, cross-regional party formation rules, at-large communal or sectoral seat reservations, and uni-directional votepooling, using these cases to construct an index of strong, moderate and weak centripetal electoral systems. [R]
71.6752 REILLY, Benjamin ; STEWART, Jack Hudson —
What is the relationship between Australia’s system of compulsory preferential voting and the ideological stance of elected members? Utilising a unique dataset of social media communication from the 2013 federal election, we show how preference flows influence parliamentarians’ subsequent communications to voters. MPs who were behind on the first count but gained sufficient preferences to win a seat — whom we call ‘comefrom-behind’ winners — adopted distinctively centrist communication strategies, occupying an ideological ‘cross-over zone’ between the most right-leaning Labor member and most left-leaning Coalition member. Most of these ‘come-from-behind’ winners today are Labor MPs, illustrating the changing partisan impact of compulsory preferential voting, from historically advantaging the conservative side of politics to now clearly benefitting Labor and, to a lesser extent, independent candidates. [R]
71.6753 RENNWALD, Line ; PONTUSSON, Jonas —
Relying on post-election surveys, we analyze how class and union membership condition voters’ abandonment of mainstream Left parties and the alternatives chosen by former mainstream-Left voters in the period 2001-2015. Inspired by Przeworski and Sprague’s Paper Stones (1986), our analysis shows that Left parties face a trade-off between mobilizing workers and other voters and that unionization renders workers more loyal to Left parties that mobilize non-workers. By contrast, unionization does not render non-workers more loyal to Left parties that mobilize workers. Union membership increases the likelihood that workers who abandon the mainstream Left continue to vote. It also increases the likelihood that voters abandon the mainstream Left in favor of radical Left parties rather than Center-Right parties. We conclude that reversing the decline of workingclass organization should be a long-term objective of mainstream Left parties. [R, abr.]
71.6754 REUTER, Ora John ; SZAKONYI, David —
Does electoral fraud stabilize authoritarian rule or undermine it? The answer to this question rests in part on how voters evaluate regime candidates who engage in fraud. Using a survey experiment conducted after the 2016 elections in Russia, the authors find that voters withdraw their support from ruling party candidates who commit electoral fraud. This effect is especially large among strong supporters of the regime. Core regime supporters are more likely to have ex ante beliefs that elections are free and fair. Revealing that fraud has occurred significantly reduces their propensity to support the regime. The authors’ findings illustrate that fraud is costly for autocrats not just because it may ignite protest, but also because it can undermine the regime’s core base of electoral support. [R, abr.]
71.6755 REYES, Antonio —
This paper contextualizes D. Trump’s political “Message” within the current anti-intellectualism phenomenon in the Post-Truth era. Trump’s Presidential Announcement Speech marks the beginning of the Trump era, as it introduces critical traits of his persona, message and political agenda to the general audience. From a Discourse Analysis approach, this paper considers Aristotelian modes of persuasion and the multimodal concept of “Message”, to contribute to the literature on Trump’s political communication by focusing on the cult of personality and self-representation (i.e. nonpolitician, overachieving businessman, great leader). Trump built his candidacy and presidency around his persona, distancing himself from the Republican Party and traditional politicians. These strategies allowed Trump to evoke an Ethos capable of saving America. [R, abr.]
71.6756 RHEAULT, Ludovic ; MUSULAN, Andreea —
This study explains public opinion toward cell-phone contact tracing using a survey experiment. We build upon a theory in evolutionary psychology — disease avoidance — to predict how media coverage of the pandemic affects public support for containment measures. We report three key findings. First, exposure to a news item that shows people ignoring social distancing rules causes an increase in support for cell-phone contact-tracing. Second, pre-treatment covariates such as anxiety and a belief that other people are not following the rules rank among the strongest predictors of support for COVID-19 apps. And third, while a majority of respondents approve of the reliance on cell-phone contact-tracing, concerns for rights and freedoms remain a salient preoccupation. [R, abr.]
71.6757 RHEE, Inbok —
We know less about the extent and dynamics of economic voting in the developing democracies of sub-Saharan Africa. The relationship between economic perceptions and incumbent performance evaluations is a critical precursor to vote-choice. I evaluate this link using more than fifty-five thousand individual-level observations across sixteen sub-Saharan African countries. I find that there exists a strong association between economic perception and performance evaluation while controlling for a host of covariates, including ethnicity, partisanship, information, and public goods provision. Contrary to previous findings, however, I show that the influence of economic perception is stronger than many other factors considered in the models such as coethnicity with the incumbent. Moreover, my findings indicate that coethnicity — but not copartisanship — conditions the influence of economic perception on performance evaluation. [R, abr.]
71.6758 RIAMBAU, Guillem —
Māori in New Zealand have the right to choose which electorate to vote in: they can choose to vote in a ‘General district’ (with other Māori and all non-Māori), or to vote in a ‘Māori district’, where only Māori are allowed to register. Every five years there is a period known as Māori Electoral Option, during which Māori are given the option to either stay in their current district or switch. This offers an ideal setting to analyse whether Māori voters strategically choose to register where they expect the race to be closer. To that avail, I use data from two Māori Electoral Options, two general elections, and two censuses. Results suggest that only a very small fraction of Māori (less than 2%) seem to respond to the strategic incentives described. Two forces seem to play a much larger role in enrolment choices: cultural allegiances and socioeconomic status. [R, abr.]
71.6759 RIBERA PAYÁ, Pablo ; DÍAZ MARTÍNEZ, José Ignacio —
Until very recently, Spain has been an exception to the rise of the far right in the rest of Europe. However, Vox won a sizeable number of seats in the 2019 April national elections, followed by more than doubling them in the November 2019 ones. Following its victory, plenty of journalistic articles have attempted to categorise the party, ranging from Francoist or fascist to populist or conservative. This paper, departing from the ideational approach to populism, analyses the written and spoken production of the party, using both computerised content and discourse analysis to clarify and identify its ideological stance, including what relationship, if any, has with fascism or Franco’s ideas. [R]
71.6760 RICH, Timothy S., et al. —
What explains the South Korean public’s support for resettlement policies for North Korean arrivals and to what extent does the presentation of this issue influence these perceptions? A crucial and overlooked component of South Korea’s policy towards these North Koreans is the role of public perceptions. We contend that both the gender of the North Korean and the respondent shape perceptions. Via an original experimental web survey, we find a more than ten percentage point decrease in support for aid for North Koreans when the focus is on North Korean men compared to women or no mention of gender. Furthermore, we find lower support overall among female respondents. The results suggest a policy challenge for the South Korean government to meet their goals of integration for these arrivals. [R]
71.6761 ROBISON, Joshua, et al. —
Recent elections have featured various politicians directly appealing to the working class, yet we know little about how citizens react to class appeals from candidates. We investigate this question using survey experiments conducted in the United States and Denmark. We show that symbolic class rhetoric substantially influences candidate evaluations and ultimately polarizes these evaluations across class lines. We also unpack how class appeals work and find that while they increase perceptions of representation among working class voters, they have a more limited effect on perceptions of candidates’ ideological position. Our results help explain how class affects voter decision-making and contribute to broader discussions about the role of political elites in activating social cleavages. [R]
71.6762 ROCCA RIVAROLA, Dolores —
This paper, which is part of wider research on the transformation of political linkages in Argentina and Brazil, analyzes a specific dimension: political activist training. It seeks to understand how transformations such as weaker partisanship and intense political fluctuation manifest in the way activists have defined and experienced political training. I examine narratives in interviews held between 2007 and 2015 with four generational groups of activists, classified according to the historical period in which they engaged in youth activism. All of them were members of governmentsupporting organizations during the Kirchner (2003-2015) and Workers’ Party administrations (2003-2016). The issue of activist training is relevant if we consider the paradoxical survival of political and partisan activism in a context of electoral volatility and leaders circumventing parties to establish a direct political bond with citizens. [R, abr.]
71.6763 ROCH, Juan —
This article seeks to shine a light on the diversity of populist discourses about Europe and the EU. It is built upon the existing literature on populist Euroscepticism to elaborate on two underexplored aspects of the relationship between populist discourses and EU contestation. First, it explores the variable and even ambivalent representations of the EU and its main political processes exhibited by populist actors. Second, it focuses on the precise relationship between populism and the representations of the EU to determine whether there is a hierarchical relation, reciprocal influence, or they function as separated ideational ensembles. This research takes a corpus-assisted approach to discourse analysis that is based on the exploration of manifestos and party leadership speeches between 2013 and 2017 of Podemos in Spain, a left-wing populist party, and the Alternative für Deutschland in Germany, a right-wing populist party. [R, abr.]
71.6764 ROGOWSKI, Jon C. ; STONE, Andrew R. —
Contemporary US Supreme Court nominations are unavoidably and inevitably political. Although observers worry that political contestation over nominations undermines support for qualified nominees and threatens the Court’s legitimacy, there is little empirical evidence to support these claims. The authors argue that political contestation over judicial nominations provides cues that shape the public’s impressions about nominees and the Court and polarizes public opinion across partisan lines. Data from a conjoint experiment administered in the first days of the Trump presidency support this argument. Political rhetoric attributed to President Trump and Senate Democrats substantially polarized partisans’ views of nominees and evaluations of the Court’s legitimacy, with Republicans (Democrats) expressing significantly more (less) favorable attitudes. Additional analyses suggest that contestation generates divergent partisan responses by affecting views about the nominee’s impartiality. [R, abr.]
71.6765 ROODUIJN, Matthijs ; BONIKOWSKI, Bart ; PARLEVLIET, Jante —
What are the attitudinal consequences of the growing pervasiveness of populism and nativism? We conceive of both populism and nativism as binary moral frameworks predicated on an antagonistic relationship between ‘us’ and ‘them’. Our study investigates the presence of spillover effects between these two forms of ingroup-outgroup thinking among survey respondents in the Netherlands. We posit that exposure to populist (nativist) messages fuels nativism (populism), but only among those positively predisposed toward these messages in the first place. A first survey experiment, focusing on antipathies toward refugees and Muslim immigrants, confirms the former expectation, but a second experiment calls into question the latter hypothesis. [R, abr.]
71.6766 RUBIO-CARBONERO, Gema —
Mainstream political discourse on immigration delivered by so-called center or center-left parties has transformed into more subtle forms of discursive discrimination, which might not be obvious and need a closer analysis in order to be spotted in discourse. Overt discriminatory discourse has been studied by disciplines, such as political sociology, social psychology and Critical Discourse Studies, but subtle discriminatory constructions have been rather neglected. By combining these three disciplines, we propose here a multidisciplinary and multitheorical framework to systematically analyze subtle discriminatory political discourse on immigration. It aims at contributing to the development of a methodology for a socio-political analysis that allows to detect subtle discriminatory political discourse on immigration. Such framework is composed by four strategies with different degrees of subtleness: highlighting, diminishing, homogenizing and normalizing. [R, abr.]
71.6767 RUIJGROK, Kris —
This article argues that contrary to cyber-pessimist beliefs, citizens’ internet use in authoritarian regimes still generates anti-regime sentiment. Using a multilevel regression analysis with country- and individual-level data for 21 authoritarian regimes (2010-2015), it shows that there is a positive effect of internet use on anti-regime sentiment and that stringent internet controls do not weaken this effect. An in-depth case study of Malaysia under the BN (1957-2018) examines the causal mechanisms. Interviews with activists (22), protestors (17), and online journalists (2) reveal how the internet gave alternative Malaysian voices a platform, essentially breaking the regime’s monopoly as an information broadcaster. The consequential circulation of alternative political information exposed online Malaysians to new perspectives on the regime, which sometimes very swiftly, but most often gradually increased their anti-regime sentiment. [R, abr.]
71.6768 SABOUNI, Hisam ; SHELTON, Cameron —
Advocates of redistricting reform believe that traditional districting principles (TDPs) were ineffective in constraining partisan gerrymanders during the 2010 redistricting wave. Many reformers believe the path forward consists of properly quantifying TDPs and demonstrating their violation by partisan gerrymanders. This is a viable path only insofar as TDPs materially constrain the ability of parties to design a map that delivers a seats-votes curve biased in their favor. If not, then enforcement of TDPs may change the configuration of districts without hindering partisan bias. To test whether TDPs constrain partisan gerrymanders, we analyze a complete set of state legislative maps from the 2010 redistricting wave. We measure manipulation by a low degree of overlap between parent and offspring districts which we confirm is connected to the search for partisan gain. [R, abr.]
71.6769 SALEM, Maryam Ben —
The article examines the economic vision of the Tunisian Islamist party Ennahda focusing on its supposed transformation from a party with socialist rhetoric to one embracing fully the tenets of neo-liberalism. The article argues that such a transformation has been quite easy to achieve because the party and its leaders were always more pragmatic than ideological when it comes to economic policy-making. In fact, the party is more at ease with neo-liberal economics because of the electoral constituency it serves and because of its internal structure and ways of operating, which reward those members who display the virtues that the neo-liberal economy also values. [R] [See Abstr. 71.6547]
71.6770 SANCHEZ-SIBONY, Omar —
Peru constitutes a paradigmatic case of a democracy without bona fide political parties. This makes it an ideal “most likely case” of democratic dysfunction for examining key theoretical tenets about the relationship between political parties and democracy. Political science theory confers upon political parties several key functions of democratic governance and holds that, in the absence of bona fide parties, several dysfunctional political correlates should materialize: nonresponsiveness to societal policy preferences, serious deficits in electoral (vertical) accountability, flourishing populism, imperiled governability in state-society relations, and vulnerability to democratic breakdown. These five theoretical predictions are examined by way of perusing the empirical workings of Peruvian democracy along these dimensions in the post-2001 democratic era. Peru’s democratic experience bears out the predictions in stark fashion, thus providing confirming evidence in favor of the real-world centrality of political parties. [R, abr.]
71.6771 SANTOSO, Lie Philip —
This paper explains how media systems influence the extent to which partisanship colors voters’ perceptions of the economy (i.e., the strength of the partisan screen). It builds upon research on individual-level biases in economic perceptions, seeking to extend existing work by considering how the availability of partisan media for a given party affect such biases. The implication of this is that the greater the availability of media sources favorable to a party, the stronger the partisan screen for its partisans. This follows from several mechanisms including selective acceptance of messages, selective exposure to partisan sources, and incidental exposure to partisan sources. Each of these suggests that differences in the availability of partisan media across parties leads to corresponding differences in the extent of partisan bias for partisans of these parties. [R, abr.]
71.6772 SCHAKEL, Arjan H. —
I theorize that governmental status at the regional level, regional authority, and the relative timing of the regional election affects vote-share swings between European and previously held national elections. Based on an analysis including 12,545 vote-share swings for 468 parties that compete elections held in 209 regions in 11 EU member states since 1979, I find strong evidence for prospective regional voting, that is, voters rewarding parties in government at the regional level. First, parties that are in national opposition and in regional government incur larger vote share gains than parties that are in opposition at both levels. Second, these vote-share gains become larger when regional authority increases and, third, when a regional election has preceded a European election. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6387]
71.6773 SCHERTZER, Robert ; WOODS, Eric —
We explore the ethno-nationalist populism of Donald Trump’s Twitter communication during the 2016 presidential campaign. We draw on insights from ethno-symbolism — a perspective within nationalism studies — to analyse all 5,515 tweets sent by Trump during the campaign. We find that ethno-nationalist and populist themes were by far the most important component of Trump’s tweets, and that these themes built upon long-standing myths and symbols of an ethnic conception of American identity. In sum, Trump’s tweets depicted a virtuous white majority being threatened by several groups of immoral outsiders, who were identified by their foreignness, their religion, and their self-interestedness. The struggle against these groups was framed as a mission to restore America to a mythical golden age — to “Make America Great Again.” [R]
71.6774 SCHLAUFER, Caroline —
Citizen online participation has become an increasingly important feature of policymaking in nondemocratic regimes. This article explores the question of why nondemocratic governments promote e-participation tools. To address this question, this research examines the motives for the introduction of the Active Citizen e-voting platform in Moscow through an indepth case study drawing on interviews and qualitative document analysis. The case study identifies a variety of objectives pursued by the Moscow city government with the promotion of e-participation and relates them to three legitimation strategies, namely, input-based legitimation, outputbased legitimation and discourse-based legitimation. The results underscore how controlled e-participation may combine different legitimation strategies without challenging the distribution of decision-making power. [R]
71.6775 SCHOEMAN, Albertus —
Conventional understandings of party system institutionalisation assume that institutionalised parties are necessary for interparty competition to stabilise. However, this approach neglects the role of the state in shaping party competition. Using survey data from Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, it is shown that weakly institutionalised parties can lead to institutionalised party systems if parties are able to successfully co-opt the state and use state resources to supplement party deficiencies. By developing a relationship that intertwines parties with the state, parties in young democracies do not need to institutionalise for stable party systems to form. [R]
71.6776 SCHOLTE, Jan Aart ; VERHAEGEN, Soetkin ; TALLBERG, Jonas —
This article examines what contemporary elites think about global governance and what these attitudes might bode for the future of global institutions. Evidence comes from a unique survey conducted in 2017-2019 across six elite sectors (business, civil society, government bureaucracy, media, political parties, research) in six countries (Brazil, Germany, the Philippines, Russia, South Africa, the United States) and a global group. Bearing in mind some notable variation between countries, elite types, issue-areas and institutions, three main interconnected findings emerge. [R, abr.]
71.6777 SCHWARTZ, Cassilde, et al. —
Recent political contests across Europe and North America have been propelled by a wave of populist, anti-immigrant resentment. This article reports the results of an experiment around the Brexit referendum, designed to test how populist victories shape anti-immigrant attitudes. The study finds that anti-immigrant attitudes actually softened after the Brexit referendum, among both Leave and Remain supporters, and these effects persisted for several months. How could a right-wing, populist victory soften anti-immigrant attitudes? The authors use causal mediation analysis to understand this ‘populist paradox’. Among Leavers, a greater sense of control over immigration channelled the effects of the Brexit outcome onto anti-immigrant attitudes. Individuals’ efforts to distance themselves from accusations of xenophobia and racism explains the softening of attitudes towards immigration observed among both Leavers and Remainers. [R, abr.]
71.6778 SCOTT, Jamil S. —
Much attention has been paid to the use of Twitter as a form of political expression. Use of the Black Lives Matter hashtag has generated discussion about the treatment of black people in the US and sentiment about the Black Lives Matter organization itself. I examine how tweets are used to express ideas and identity surrounding the Black Lives Matter movement and the associated hashtag. I focus on how the hashtag is being used for political expression and as a means of documenting protest activity. While analysis of the tweets themselves are an important step in understanding online political expression, it is also important to understand who is doing the tweeting, as discussion may differ based on race. I code racial identity using pictures of Twitter users and text and predict the group most likely to use the hashtag. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6618]
71.6779 SEVI, Semra —
Who runs and is elected is one of the most fundamental questions in political science as it pertains to the issue of descriptive representation. Despite the importance of this issue, until recently there were no longitudinal datasets on candidates in Canadian elections. This article presents two novel datasets including information on all candidates who ran in Canadian federal and Ontario provincial elections from 1867 to 2019. I present how these data were collected and how they can be used to gain new insights. I expect these data will be a valuable resource to Canadian political scientists for both research and teaching purposes. [R]
71.6780 SHAFRANEK, Richard M. —
Research shows the increasing tendency of partisan considerations to influence decisions outside the context of politics, including residential choice. Scholars attribute this tendency to affective distaste for members of the other party. However, little work has investigated the relative influence of political and nonpolitical factors in these situations — and it has not sufficiently ruled out alternative explanations for these phenomena. Do people mainly choose to socially avoid members of the other party for political reasons, or is partisanship simply perceived to be correlated with relevant nonpolitical considerations? In some settings, political affiliation may serve primarily as a cue for other factors. As a result, studies that manipulate partisanship but fail to include other individuating information may exaggerate partisanship’s importance in these decisions. I assess the impact of political and nonpolitical considerations on roommate selection via conjoint analysis. [R, abr.]
71.6781 SHEEN, Greg Chih-Hsin —
During the political process, the electorate needs to determine the competence of the government by both observing its policy decisions and acquiring information from the media. However, media reports are often criticized for not being independent and truthful. This paper discusses whether the public can determine the quality of a government from media reports. In other words, are media outlets more likely to act as watchdogs or just as “yes men” to the government? This paper argues that, because of reputational concerns, the media usually avoid criticizing the government. The media only report truthfully when the expected competence of the government is sufficiently low and the probability for the voter to learn from other information sources is sufficiently high. [R, abr.]
71.6782 SHEHAJ, Albana ; SHIN, Adrian J. ; INGLEHART, Ronald —
Previous studies of right-wing populist (RWP) parties primarily investigate how domestic factors as well as external forces, such as immigration, incite the emergence and electoral success of RWP parties. Studies examining the link between migration and far-right support have found mixed empirical results, using various measures of immigration. We construct our own measures of immigration that highlight the economic and cultural dimensions of migrant-sending states in relation to migrant-receiving states. Our empirical analysis of 15 Western European countries uses these measures to examine whether the economic and cultural characteristics of migrant-sending states can enhance RWP success in wealthy, advanced democracies. We find some evidence that relatively large economic and cultural differences between natives and immigrants are conducive to RWP support in Western European countries. [R, abr.]
71.6783 SHEPHERD, Michael E., et al. —
Do local election administrators change precincts and Election Day polling place locations to target voters based on their partisanship or race? We systematically evaluate whether decisions consistent with targeting occur using the near universe of eligible voters, polling place locations, and precinct boundaries across three presidential elections in the closely contested state of North Carolina. We find no evidence that local administrators allocate precincts and polling places in a manner consistent with partisan manipulation for electoral gain. Some counties appear to differentially target opposition party voters with these changes, but the county-level variation we document is likely due to random variation rather than deliberate manipulation. There is also little evidence that the removal of minority voter protections in Shelby County v. Holder impacted polling place placement. [R, abr.]
71.6784 SHIM, Jaemin —
The article examines the conditions under which female legislators are more likely to act on behalf of female electorates through two underexplored cases — South Korea and Taiwan. Specifically, it investigates the effect of three conditions — seat share, electoral rules, and legislator characteristics — on legislators’ sponsorship of women’s issue bills using an original bill submission dataset. The finding shows that, on the one hand, female legislators’ increasing seat proportion made legislators stress women’s issues more and, on the other hand, new legislators elected at the party tier with civil society experience became substantially more likely to advance women’s issues. In light of the evidence, this article argues that women’s issues are more actively advanced when the political space allows women’s issue-promoting legislators to pursue both electoral and policy interests. [R]
71.6785 SHINEMAN, Victoria —
Compulsory voting laws introduce a legal requirement to vote that substantially increases in voter turnout. Additionally, this study provides evidence that a legal requirement to vote also generates a more politically informed population. A comparative case study leverages intra-national variation in mandatory voting regulations across the Austrian Provinces over time. The analysis constructs novel measures intended to quantify recent and accumulated exposure to compulsory voting laws. The results suggest that exposure to mandatory voting laws caused Austrian citizens to increase their political interest and attention to political news, as well as their level of information about party platforms on whether or not to expand EU integration. [R, abr.]
71.6786 SHULTZINER, Doron ; STUKALIN, Yelena —
Integrating scholarship from several fields of study, this paper proposes a new model for understanding how partisan bias operates and how to measure its effects. We chart the factors that influence partisan bias over news production within news organizations that are simultaneously constrained and conditioned by factors of market competition, context considerations and journalistic norms. We argue that partisan media bias of a news-story is expressed in the manner that different news outlets cover the same political story within the same timeframe relative to one another. We find that description bias is a key parameter that is intertwined with selection bias mechanisms that highlight and downplay news items according to their content. We illustrate how partisan media coverage occurs in the context of a major political protest in Israel. [R, abr.]
71.6787 SIEGEL, Alexandra A., et al. —
Do online social networks affect political tolerance in the highly polarized climate of postcoup Egypt? Taking advantage of the real-time networked structure of Twitter data, the authors find that not only is greater network diversity associated with lower levels of intolerance, but also that longer exposure to a diverse network is linked to less expression of intolerance over time. The authors find that this relationship persists in both elite and non-elite diverse networks. Exploring the mechanisms by which network diversity might affect tolerance, the authors offer suggestive evidence that social norms in online networks may shape individuals’ propensity to publicly express intolerant attitudes. [R, abr.]
71.6788 SIEGERS, Pascal ; JEDINGER, Alexander —
We focus on how religiosity affects electoral support for right-wing populist (RWP) parties in Germany. Based on a tripartite concept of religiosity (religious practice, religious affiliation, and religious beliefs), we assume that the effect of religiosity is mediated by two intervening determinants of RWP support, namely, anti-immigrant attitudes and party identification. To test our hypotheses, we use pooled data from the Long-term Online Tracking of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). The results show that anti-immigrant attitudes are strongly correlated with RWP support and that citizens with party identification are less likely to vote for an RWP party. More importantly, religiosity influences the RWP vote because, first, church attendance is negatively correlated with anti-immigrant attitudes, and, second, all dimensions of religiosity are positively associated with identification with established parties. [R, abr.]
71.6789 SIMAS, Elizabeth N. —
Political scientists have long contemplated whether candidates are better off taking more ambiguous policy positions. Taking advantage of a lack of clarity in Senator K. Harris’s healthcare position, I use an original survey experiment to apply these theories to the case of the 2020 presidential election. I find that ambiguity offers Harris little to no advantage over two of her leading Democratic primary opponents and, among certain subjects, harms her relative to Senator E. Warren. I also find negative effects on Harris’s favorability relative to President D. Trump. These results have interesting implications for both the 2020 election and the broader study of candidate rhetoric because they illustrate potential downsides to avoiding clear issue statements. [R]
71.6790 SKJELDERUP, Michael W. —
This article explores civilian agency and civil resistance under Islamist insurgents’ rule in southern Somalia in the period 2006 to 2012. After almost two decades of civil war, local institutions were weakened and the communities could not resist tight Islamist control. The traditional authorities either fled or chose to cooperate with the new rulers. However, while treading a fine line, traditional authorities were still able to raise community concerns and influence the Islamist rulers’ behaviour through limited forms of civil resistance. Although not changing the overall political situation, traditional authorities were instrumental in reducing tension and improving civilian life. [R]
71.6791 ŠKVRŇÁK, Michael —
The research on coalition-formation has used the abundance of local-level data to test the classical theories of coalition-formation. I take the classical theories as a baseline and supplement them with additional factors related to how political agents are embedded in the local community. In particular, I investigate how the social capital of elected councillors attained in local football clubs and the membership bases of local party branches affect coalition formation. The results of conditional logit models show that coalitions are more likely to be formed between parties whose elected councillors are members of a local football club. [R, abr.]
71.6792 SLOAM, James, et al. —
Much attention has been paid by academics and policy-makers in recent decades to declining levels of voter turnout and engagement with traditional political and social institutions in established democracies. These trends are particularly marked amongst young people. Drawing on data from the European Social Survey, this article examines the role of higher education (HE) both as a source of unequal participation and as a means of fostering civic and political engagement amongst young Europeans. It uncovers two significant new findings. First, that being in education matters more than an individual’s level of educational attainment for levels of civic and political participation, and second, that HE establishments play a key role as social levelers: being in education neutralizes differences between young people from high-income and low-income backgrounds with regards to such participation. [R, abr.]
71.6793 SÖDERLUND, Peter ; SCHOULTZ, Åsa von ; PAPAGEORGIOU, Achillefs —
Many studies show that the order of candidates’ names on the ballot has an effect on voting. Less informed and indifferent voters may simplify the voting process by using the ballot position of candidates as a voting cue. By studying six parliamentary elections in Finland, this study first demonstrates that the relationship between ballot position and preference votes follows a reversed J-shaped curve. Candidates listed early on the ballot win the most preference votes, while candidates listed near the end have an advantage over those listed in the middle. Furthermore, the ballot position effect grows stronger with the complexity of the electoral environment. [R, abr.]
71.6794 SOLOMON, Johanna ; KAPLAN, David ; HANCOCK, Landon E. —
This paper poses three related questions. What is white ethno-nationalism as it exists today within the US, how is this sentiment expressed by particular organizations, and how is it expressed by ordinary people who belong to these organizations? We begin what ethno-nationalism signifies and its relation to other forms of nationalism. We then check how certain indicators are present among supporters of an organization, Blue Lives Matter, which emerged as a reaction to Black Lives Matter. While this movement has framed itself as supportive of police rights, its negative reaction to Black Lives Matter has become a vehicle to express white ethno-nationalism. These views are gauged as a means to understanding the contours of banal white ethnonationalism as opposed to those more strident forms registered by neo-Nazis and KKK members. [R]
71.6795 SONG, B. K. —
I estimate the causal effect of public funding of elections on candidates’ reemergence and success using a regression discontinuity design in the context of South Korean municipal legislative elections. I find that public financing has no overall effect on candidate reemergence and success in a subsequent election. I do find, however, that campaign expense reimbursement has a positive effect on those who are formerly underrepresented in politics, especially women, in whose case it increases the probability of running again by 24.6 percentage points and that of winning the next election by 10.1 percentage points. I also find some suggestive evidence that campaign expense reimbursement can help female candidates become career politicians. [R]
71.6796 SOPER, J. Christopher ; FETZER, Joel S. —
This essay examines the politics of church-state interactions in Hong Kong after July 1, 1997, using Anthony Gill’s political-economic model of religious mobilization and liberty and Max Weber’s theory of priestly versus prophetic religion. How have local Christians reacted to the Communistbacked SAR government in Hong Kong since 1997? Do Catholic and Protestant leaders and their followers play a mainly priestly or prophetic role when dealing with the authoritarian Beijing government and its subordinates in Hong Kong? Based on our interviews with Christian leaders from Hong Kong and an analysis of available official statistics and Chinese- and English-language publications, this essay finds that churchstate relations have become increasingly fraught as some Christian intellectuals and young people more and more support anti-Beijing, prodemocracy movements. [R, abr.]
71.6797 SOUSA, Luís de ; FERNANDES, Daniel ; WEILER, Florian —
This article seeks to assess whether populist incumbents affect their country’s perceived political stability and business climate. Existing evidence contends that populist governments in European democracies produce more moderate policy outcomes than their agendas would suggest. However, populist parties are still regarded as disruptive, as they are perceived to not conforming to the politics of negotiation and compromise that are central to liberal democracies. Therefore, their presence in government may generate political uncertainty and negatively affect the business climate. Drawing on a sample of 26 European democracies between 1996 and 2016, we find that populist incumbency initially generates market uncertainty, but after about two years in office, the negative effect on the business climate vanishes. [R]
71.6798 STAUFER, Simon Julian —
Vying for the presidential nomination from the two major US parties in 2016, both D.Trump and B. Sanders were repeatedly called ‘populists’ — even though their political positions and policy proposals on key issues differed very sharply throughout their campaigns. This article looks into the question of why the ‘populist’ label was applied to two politicians so fundamentally opposed, and what this means for the broader debate on populism. In doing so, it presents a discursive model for the empirical study of populism applicable independently of substantive ideological commitments and used to analyse key textual output from Trump’s and Sanders’s primary campaigns. The article concludes that, although both actors’ political discourses feature different elements of populism to varying degrees. [R, abr.]
71.6799 STUCKELBERGER, Simon —
There are two targeting objectives for an election campaign: mobilizing core voters and chasing undecided voters. According to most previous research, negative campaigning exclusively fulfils a chasing function; parties use it to convince swing voters. The article argues that parties consider the mobilization of core voters as a second important function of negative campaigning. It is based on interviews with party campaign officials and a content analysis of election newspaper advertisements and press releases from the 2011 and 2015 Swiss National Council elections. The interviews and the analysis of parties’ attack behaviour show that parties use negative campaigning for mobilizing purposes, and in the analysed Swiss elections, it seems to be a more popular strategy than chasing. [R]
71.6800 SULMONT, David —
This contribution evaluates the mediating role of different political contexts and levels of democratic consolidation on the effect of party system polarization on ideological vote and discusses how this relationship enhances democratic representativeness. The influence of party system polarization on ideological voting is analyzed in two areas: the voters’ competence in identifying parties’ ideological positions; and the voters’ tendency to vote for the most ideologically proximate party, which is one of the key features of the spatial theories of voting. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) from 1996 to 2019 and multilevel modelling techniques, the paper compares how those features vary across different types of countries, particularly older and newer democracies, and different regions of the world. [R]
71.6801 SUMAKTOYO, Nathanael Gratias —
Research on the influence of social networks on political behavior has led to findings showing an apparent trade-off between positive attitudes toward the out-party and political engagement. The prevalent sentiments have been that partisan bonding or ties with fellow partisans hurts evaluations of the out-party but helps political engagement. Partisan bridging or ties with opposite partisans, on the other hand, improves evaluations of the out-party but hurts engagement. I argue that this trade-off is essentially an illusion driven by a mistaken assumption that bonding and bridging are two opposite ends of the same continuum. Analyzing two original national surveys of the American public, I show that bonding and bridging are independent constructs with different consequences. Consistent with previous studies, I find that bonding hurts and bridging helps out-party attitudes. [R, abr.]
71.6802 SURRIDGE, Paula —
Britain’s Choice, a report published by More in Common, develops a new segmentation of the British public based on their core beliefs, values and identities. Identifying seven segments, the report aims to better understand the British public, the goal being to work out how to build a more cohesive Britain — the choice facing Britain being a path to further division and polarisation or one to greater solidarity and shared values. The report strikes a broadly optimistic turn and highlights the shared values across the seven groups, but there are warning signs in the data that there are still many issues on which these groups could be divided, the overlap between them, for now, limiting the success of attempts to do so and throwing up a ‘kaleidoscopic’ pattern that changes from issue to issue. [R]
71.6803 SUS, Monika ; HADEED, Marcel —
The European Union has witnessed a transformation of national political elites in the last decade. In addition to local factors, this is caused by a range of broader societal and political discontinuities. By applying Higley’s model of political elite transformation to the Eurozone- and migration crises, we reveal the nature of this transformation: political elites today are more differentiated and less united than a decade ago. The analysis shows that the discontinuities brought forth newly founded political parties and strengthened those with previously little voice in decision-making. These new elites reflect the Euroscepticism of an increasing proportion of their constituency. Thus, we argue that the European political landscape has moved beyond the constraining dissensus to a post-constraining dissensus, where national elites themselves challenge European integration. [R, abr.]
71.6804 SVENSSON, Isak ; FINNBOGASON, Daniel —
Research has shown the potential of nonviolent civil resistance in challenging autocratic state regimes. Yet, little is known about its applicability in jihadist proto-states, that is, territories governed by militant jihadist groups. We argue that civil resistance is more likely to occur when jihadists impose a rule that local populations perceive as alien and when organizational structures capable of collective nonviolent mobilization are activated. We develop this argument through a comparative analysis of three jihadist proto-states: one in which manifest and organized civil resistance occurred (Islamic Emirate of Azawad in Mali in 2012), and two in which it did not: the Islamic State of Iraq (2006-2008) and the Islamic Principality of al-Mukalla in Yemen (2015-2016). [R, abr.]
71.6805 SWANK, Eric —
Feminists often see abortion restrictions as a way to remove female control over their labor, sexual practices, and reproductive decisions. Pro-life advocates often deny such motives, arguing that they only care about stopping the murder of “unborn humans” and the trauma associated with having an abortion. This study addresses these concerns by studying the role of gender attitudes in anti-abortion activism. By using the 2010-2012 Evaluations of Government and Society Study ANES Surveys (n = 3,860) to determine who joins [US] pro-life social movements, this study concludes that pro-life activism is connected to beliefs about stay-at-home mothers, perceptions of sexism in society, being married, and exposure to political conversations in political groups, religious institutions, and families. [R]
71.6806 SYCHOWIEC, Maciej —
Previous studies report that the economic left/right dimension has an impact on credit ratings. However, recent literature shows that there are no significant differences between right-wing and left-wing debt-related policies. In addition, current political developments, such as the rise of populist movements, indicate that the economic left/right dimension may not be sufficient to describe how political ideology affects governments’ actions and thereby credit ratings. Therefore, this paper suggests that the sociocultural dimension of political ideology of the GAL-TAN (Green-Alternative-Liberal vs. Traditionalist-Authoritarian-Nationalist) also impacts a country’s rating. In particular, it proposes that TAN-leaning governments are perceived as a risk factor for debt repayment because they are less likely to adhere to rule of law and are reluctant to cooperate with international organizations and other domestic political parties. [R, abr.]
71.6807 THIELTGES, Andree ; MEDINA SERRANO, Juan Carlos —
By targeting, analysing and evaluating personal user data within online social networks (OSNs) (microtargeting) it is possible to tailor campaigning to an individual user or spread political ads and publicity in contradictive user groups. German labor unions and the employers’ federations pay and post continuously political ads. We analyze a data-set from the Facebook Ad Library, introduced in 2019 as a public-access data-base which includes all political and social relevant ads, paid and posted on Facebook and OSNs associated with Facebook. First, we compare the different advertising strategies of labor unions and employers’ federations within an observation period from March 2019 to June 2020. [Then] we reverse-engineer possible targeting strategies by tracing the demographic distribution and the zoning of Facebook users, that have seen these political ads. [R, abr.]
71.6808 THOMPSON, Paul ; PITTS, Frederick Harry ; INGOLD, Jo —
This article places the Labour Party’s present post‐Corbyn renewal in the context of previous periods of renewal in the party’s recent history, associating with the new leadership of K. Starmer a potential to rediscover the strategic project of the pluralist soft left as an alternative to the programmatic character of the hard left. After assessing the Corbynist hegemony established in the Labour Party between 2015 and 2019, it considers the current absence of any clearly defined set of principles or values underpinning ‘Starmerism’. It then looks back to the Kinnockite ascendency in the 1980s, and the Blairite ascendency in the 1990s, as possible templates for how the party reassesses its positioning with reference to changing electoral, social and economic circumstances. [R, abr.]
71.6809 TOBIN, Sarah A. —
There is a paradox: why are there so many political and economic Islamic actors in the Middle East but not a large willingness on their part to adopt and promote Islamic banking and finance methodologies? This paper argues that the more vague and ambivalent these actors are on economic policy, the wider their appeal; and, by extension, the more compatible Islamic ideas and ideologies are with neoliberalism. The case of the Islamic Action Front (IAF) in Jordan is given as it has adopted an emphasis on Islamic middle-class values and ethical concerns of neoliberalism in order to gain political support. The case of the IAF demonstrates that there are points of compatibility between the neoliberal economy and Islamist politics. [R, abr.][See Abstr. 71.6547]
71.6810 TÓTH, János —
The 2016 migrant quota referendum and the preceding anti-migrant and anti-EU campaign in Hungary led to a milestone in manipulating public fear of societal change by new East-Central European populism. This article maps and analyzes sentiments toward the referendum in Hungarian-language online media, using software-supported sentiment analysis of mentions of the quota referendum published online between 1 September and 31 October 2016. Results show a preponderance of negative sentiments over positive ones in both pro-government and independent media and the dominance of independent media in the coverage of the event. [R, abr.]
71.6811 URBATSCH, R. —
Some individuals defy the consensus as to parties’ relative ideological positions, asserting that a party is more left-leaning than its rivals even when most observers have the opposite view. Such discrepancies undercut spatial models of politics. Rightward leaners’ tendency to use different, more self-anchored, bases for assessing ideology may make them especially likely to dissent in this way, as might their attention to distinct issues. Results from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems confirm that those on the political right are likelier to reverse typical left-right orderings, even on right-leaning or major parties. Evidence from the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study further shows that right-leaners’ nonstandard ordering extends to parties’ specific issue-positions — particularly, notably, on issues of higher salience to the left. [R, abr.]
71.6812 UTYCH, Stephen M. —
Considerable research has examined the role of sexism and vote choice, especially within the context of the 2016 presidential election. These findings are clear, consistent, and unequivocal – sexism hurt Hillary Clinton at the ballot box. However, the 2020 presidential primary provides an opportunity to examine sexism’s effects on candidate favorability among a broader range of candidates. Using data on candidate favorability from the 2019 VOTER survey, I find that sexism is unsurprisingly predictive of lower favorability of women running for the Democratic nomination. However, I also find that sexism influences support for men running for the nomination, in a way that is statistically indistinguishable from its effect on support for women. This effect persists even among only Democratic respondents. [R]
71.6813 VAMPA, Davide —
This article focuses on eight regional elections held in Italy in 2020, the year of the Coronavirus pandemic. It looks at both the January and September rounds. Even though these two sets of elections took place, respectively, at the end and at the beginning of two distinctive ‘phases’, separated by the Covid-19 outbreak, they share some important characteristics. The discussion starts from a short overview of the events leading to the polling days, looking in particular at pre-election coalition building, the electoral campaigns and the positioning of key leaders. It then moves onto the analysis of the election results. It considers changes in political participation, support for the major parties, the strengthening of local and nonpartisan lists, volatility and shifts in political representation. The overall pattern is one of increasing territorial complexity and fragmentation: regional elections now clearly follow a logic of their own, dominated more by local leaders than by national parties. [R] [See Abstr. 71.7027]
71.6814 VAMPA, Davide ; GRAY, Caroline —
Until the mid‐2000s, territorial politics played a considerable role in both Italy and Spain. Two regionalist parties, among others, clearly contributed to this: Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and the Northern League. Yet evidence shows that the two parties, while starting from relatively similar positions, have followed diverging trajectories, particularly after the financial (and then economic) crisis that hit their respective countries. CDC pushed its pro‐autonomy stances to the extreme and eventually ended up supporting Catalan independence. On the other hand, the League dropped its regionalist agenda and even became a state‐wide party. By comparing these two cases, this article sheds light on the mechanisms that lead to the radicalisation or moderation (and even abandonment) of regionalist parties’ territorial demands. [R, abr.]
71.6815 VAN DER BRUG, Wouter ; HARTEVELD, Eelco —
What was the impact of the 2014-2016 refugee crisis on immigration attitudes and national identification in Europe? Several studies show that radical right parties benefitted electorally from the refugee crisis, but research also shows that anti-immigration attitudes did not increase. We hypothesize that the refugee crisis affected right-wing citizens differently than leftwing citizens. We test this hypothesis by combining individual level survey data (from five Eurobarometer waves in the 2014-2016 period) with country level statistics on the asylum applications in 28 EU member states. In Western Europe, we find that increases in the number of asylum applications lead to a polarization of attitudes towards immigrants between leftand right-leaning citizens. In the Southern European ‘arrival countries’ and in Central-Eastern Europe we find no significant effects. [R, abr.]
71.6816 VAN KLINGEREN, Marijn ; TRILLING, Damian ; MÖLLER, Judith —
Extensive research has been done on how social media have changed democratic society, politics, and public opinion. Social media are often regarded as a mirror of the public that, during political events, provides journalists and academics with a clear image of what position the public has on political issues and which sub-issues it uses to back it up. Yet, there is strong empirical evidence that active Twitter users differ in terms of background characteristics from the electorate, and that the most influential users possess specific traits. However, this does not necessarily mean that the opinions expressed on Twitter cannot reflect public opinion. This study compares sub-issues used on Twitter to polled public opinion data in the context of the 2016 so-called Ukraine referendum’ in the Netherlands. [R, abr.]
71.6817 VAN TRAPPEN, Sigrid ; VANDELEENE, Audrey ; WAUTERS, Bram —
As gatekeepers to elected office, party selectors are often held responsible for the political under-representation of social groups, including immigrantorigin citizens. This article investigates how the socio-demographic characteristics (immigrant background and gender) of heads of list affect the presence and success of immigrant-origin candidates. Heads of lists constitute a unique group, as they simultaneously act as selectors and role models for aspirants and voters. We rely on an original dataset based on the 2018 local elections in Flanders (Belgium) (N = 31,173 candidates on 1309 lists). To our knowledge, it is the first time such a big endeavour is undertaken. The results show that whereas having an immigrant-origin head of list has a positive effect on both the presence and success of other immigrant-origin candidates, having a female head of list does not. We find a spillover effect within one under-represented group, but not between under-represented groups. [R]
71.6818 VARONE, Frédéric, et al. —
This study applies a multi-venue approach to assess whether business groups are more likely to realize their policy preferences than citizen groups. Conceptually, it measures the advocacy success of interest groups that are involved in the various institutional venues visited during entire policy-making processes (i.e., executive, legislative, judicial and direct democracy). Empirically, it compares interest group advocacy across three different policy issues (i.e., railway infrastructure, stem cell research and promotion of renewable energy) in both pluralist California and neocorporatist Switzerland. The findings show that, when controlling for the political system, policy issues and advocacy strategies (i.e., single- or multi-venue), business groups display higher levels of advocacy success than citizen groups. [R]
71.6819 VASILJEVIĆ, Jelena —
Solidarity and citizenship are intertwined in a very complex manner, where the former usually operates as the “social glue” for the latter, holding together its formal components such as rights, duties, and membership criteria. The “we” that sets the parameters for membership and equality is not only legally defined but also discursively produced and maintained. Here, the rhetoric of solidarity plays an important yet ambiguous role, as it can advocate for interdependence and full inclusion while at the same time solidifying the exclusionary “we.” The aim of this article is to show how solidarity reasoning—the question of with whom we should be solidary and why — plays a functional role in maintaining citizenship agendas, and how this reasoning changes to support and enable shifts in these agendas. [R, abr.]
71.6820 VITTORI, Davide —
While challenger parties are on the rise in Europe, there has been little attention paid so far to their organization. Even though new parties enjoying path-breaking electoral success soon after their foundation tend to lose votes at their second electoral contests, due among other things to their organizational structures, some parties stand as exceptions. Among them, the Five-star Movement is the most prominent such party in Europe. The party has undergone a number of major organizational changes in the last ten years, which have halted its institutionalization process, but whose impact on electoral success were at first sight less relevant. How did the party deal with the issue of internal reforms and how did these internal reforms change the party structure? This article retraces the party’s transformations and tests hypotheses related to three competing interpretations of the Movement’s organization: those that see it as a business-firm party, a franchise party and a party movement. [R, abr.]
71.6821 VOLK, Christian —
The increasing number of protest activities urges political and social philosophers to analyze the meaning and function of protest in modern democracy. Its focus on conflictive social relations makes radical democratic theory the most promising approach currently at hand for such an endeavor. It allows us to comprehend today’s form of protest as a critique of the current shape of modern democratic order (and not as interest politics or as a struggle for rights). Accordingly, radical democratic theory has established itself in academic discourses and is widely and well received by political activists. Notwithstanding its critical potential, I argue that radical democratic thought is not in a position to conceptually grasp the differentia specifica of a democratic order and to sufficiently determine the meaning of protest for democracy. [R]
71.6822 WALLACE, Rebecca ; LAWLOR, Andrea ; TOLLEY, Erin —
Although Canada’s first documented case of COVID-19 appeared in mid-January 2020, it was not until March that messaging about the need to contain the virus heightened. In this research note, we document the use of the media’s construction of risk through framing in the early stages of the pandemic. We analyze three dimensions of the health risk narratives related to COVID-19 that dominated Canadians’ concerns about the virus. To capture these narratives, we examine print and online news coverage from two nationally distributed media sources. We assess these frames alongside epidemiological data and find there is a clear link between media coverage, epidemiological data and risk frames in the early stages of the pandemic. [R, abr.]
71.6823 WANG Chengli ; HUANG Haifeng —
Governments around the world, particularly authoritarian ones, often deny inconvenient or unfavorable information, calling it fake news or false rumor, and yet what was denied often turns out to be true eventually. How will citizens react when the initial “fake news” is verified to be real? What are the consequences of false government denials on government credibility and citizen satisfaction? Using a survey experiment in China and a follow-up survey, we find that citizens can be persuaded by the authorities’ denials and reduce their belief in a piece of news that has been declared “fake.” But when the denied news turns out to be real, citizens will reduce their belief not only in the denial at hand but also in a similar denial in the future and reduce their satisfaction with the government. [R, abr.]
71.6824 WANG Ye ; WONG Stan Hok-Wui —
Do anti-regime protests in electoral autocracies benefit the opposition by shifting the political preference of the bystanders? We seek an answer to this question by examining the electoral impact of Hong Kong’s Umbrella Movement. Analyzing the election outcomes at the polling-station level shortly after the movement, we find that protest exposure, as measured by spatial proximity to protest sites, is positively correlated with the decline of electoral support for the opposition. Individual level surveys indicate that the adverse influences of protest exposure manifest themselves in elevating by-standing citizens’ sense of economic insecurity, even though the movement causes no persistent income loss, while enhancing political efficacy. [R]
71.6825 WATTS, Clint ; CHERNASKEY, Rachel —
The Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Foreign Influence Election 2020 (FIE 2020) project, born out of the lessons from the 2016 US presidential election, sought to understand the general thrust of any overt interference efforts by authoritarian regimes aimed at the 2020 presidential election. The project cataloged and analyzed more than 10,500 stories from Russia Today (RT), and Sputnik News (Russia), PressTV (Iran) and The Global Times (China) published from January 1, 2019 to December 11, 2020. These outlets’ overt media coverage indicated the preferred candidates and narratives these regimes sought to promote throughout the lead-up to the 2020 election, on Election Day, and in the post-election period. [R]
71.6826 WEBER, Till —
Elections around the globe attest to the persistence of polarization in democratic politics. Popular support for antagonistic elite strategies defies standard predictions of ideological convergence. This paper develops a new solution to the theoretical puzzle: The centrifugal drive in representative democracy is a byproduct of voters’ disposition to evaluate policy platforms on the basis of issue positions that they dislike — to wit, negative voting. While reasonable individually, this behavior backfires collectively as elections dominated by negativity produce more polarized legislatures. Quite tragically, party polarization ultimately reflects an uncoordinated struggle of the electorate to avoid the worst rather than to pursue the best. Support for these claims comes from a theoretical model and a large comparative analysis of vote choice and party platforms. [R, abr.]
71.6827 WEISS, Meredith L. —
Politics in Malaysia seems ripe for a populist upsurge. Parties assume fairly exclusive, ethnic boundaries, inviting insider-outsider pandering. Personalities loom large. Economic inequality is among the highest in the region. Regardless, the extent to which Malaysian politics might be understood as “populist” rather than merely polarised, illiberal, and prone to particularism is dubious. I argue that Malaysian politics is neither populist nor likely to veer that way. However, the case offers a useful test of the boundaries between populism and personalisation of politics, the extent to which appeals designed to maximise popular support suffice to code a polity as populist, and which specific illiberal features facilitate or preclude populism. This examination thus clarifies a messy concept by exploring how populism might develop or falter in a multi-party, parliamentary, and hybrid rather than democratic regime. [R, abr.]
71.6828 WELCH LARSON, Deborah —
The author analyzes Donald Trump’s policy toward China and Russia and the return of great power competition. She argues that Trump’s personalization of foreign policy undermined his trade war with China, and efforts to improve relations with Russia and that the Joe Biden administration will continue to compete but seek cooperation in areas of shared interests. [R]
71.6829 WELCHMAN, Lynn ; ZAMBELLI, Elena ; SALIH, Ruba —
This article discusses the politics of the Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM) – a contemporary social movement operating across a number of Arab and western countries. Unlike analysis on the Arab Uprisings which focused on the national dimension of youth activism, we explore how the PYM politics fosters and upholds an explicitly transnational anti-colonial and intersectional solidarity framework, which foregrounds a radical critique of conventional notions of self-determination based on state-framed human rights discourses and international law paradigms. The struggle becomes instead framed as an issue of justice, freedom and liberation from interlocking forms and hierarchies of oppression. [R]
71.6830 WILLETT, Joanie —
How do British Pluralist traditions need to be re-imagined to address the issues at the heart of the Brexit vote? This paper uses qualitative research about why Britain voted for Brexit to examine this question. It interrogates the question that we require a more decentred local government at a community level in order for people to feel both represented, and able to participate. Firstly, it analyses the values, attitudes and beliefs of Leave voters who participated in the study, and situate them in terms of the affective assemblages of symbolic meaning, ideas, beliefs, values and emotion through which they imagined themselves and their community. It examines the ‘deep story’ through which participants affective responses are situated into inherited historical cultures and traditions, exploring where participants located themselves in relation to others and their particular cultures and traditions. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 71.6990]
71.6831 WOO Eun Hee —
This paper analyzes how democratization has affected the dynamics of candidate-selection in South Korea. In response to increasing public demand, the major parties adopted primary systems in the early 2000s. Nonetheless, most candidates for the legislature are still nominated by a small number of central party elites without additional ballots in the local branches. To explain the persistence of the exclusive, centralized features of candidate-selection, I highlight the limited impact democratization has had on the political environment in which parties operate. More specifically, since democratization ended in a compromise among a small number of party leaders, South Korea retained much of the political legacy from authoritarian times, such an electoral system advantageous to the major parties and legal provisions restricting electoral campaigns, party activities, and political participation. [R, abr.]
71.6832 WYLEGAŁA, Anna —
The present article offers a new framework for understanding the early East European post-war that introduces and conceptualizes the idea of “Void Communities.” The core of the argument is that the disappearance of various groups of Others — ethnic, religious, and class — was one of the most important consequences of the Second World War for Central and Eastern Europe, and particularly for Poland and Ukraine. The Void left by those who had disappeared could be described on several levels, such as physical absence, social and economical dysfunctionality, transformation of the social structure and stratification, property transfer, decline of moral values and norms, and changes in local culture and traditions. [R, abr.]
71.6833 YAVUZYILMAZ, Hakan —
Following the snap general elections in 2018, Turkish voters again went to ballot-box to cast their verdict on local elections on 31 March 2019. While the electoral playing field remained heavily skewed to the benefit of the incumbent bloc as it has been during the recent rounds of electoral contestation, the opposition, for the first time, broke the winning series of the incumbent AKP and won nearly all the major metropolitan municipalities including Ankara and Istanbul. This article aims to delineate the dynamics of polarization/depolarization in a competitive authoritarian setting. Through an analysis of political and economic context and campaign discourses of main parties in recent local elections, this article argues that under a regime level cleavage, performance failure of incumbent enabled the opposition to initiate a depolarizing and inclusive campaign discourse while captivating its core constituency. [R, abr.]
71.6834 YILDIRIM, T. Murat ; KOCAPINAR, Gülnur ; ECEVIT, Yuksel Alper —
As a considerable body of scholarly work suggests, women in leadership positions who are perceived to disconfirm the well-known gender stereotypes by being “too assertive” and “agentic” in the workplace may suffer from what social psychologists call the “backlash effect” (i.e., facing economic and social sanctions). Integrating insights from the literatures on perceptions of female leadership and intra-party politics, we reveal the differential effect of legislative speechmaking on the career prospects of male and female MPs. Specifically, using an original dataset of over thirtyfive thousand parliamentary speeches and the biographies of 2,140 MPs who served in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey between 1995 and 2011, we show that the well-documented positive effect of engagement in parliamentary activities on career prospects holds for male MPs, but not for their female counterparts. [R, abr.]
71.6835 YOLTAR, Çağri ; YÖRÜK, Erdem —
The period since the 1990s has witnessed the expanding political influence of the Kurdish movement across the country as well as a transformation in the welfare system, manifesting itself mainly in the emergence of extensive social assistance programs. While Turkish social assistance policy has been formally neutral regarding who is entitled to state aid, Kurds have been de facto singled out by these new welfare programs, as is shown by existing quantitative work. Based on a discourse analysis of legislation, parliamentary proceedings, and news media, this article examines the ways in which Turkish governments and policymakers consider the Kurdish question in designing welfare policies. We illustrate that Kurdish mobilization has become a central theme that informed the transformation of Turkish welfare system over the past three decades. [R]
71.6836 YU Tinghua —
I analyze a model in which an incumbent ruler designs a rule for propaganda disclosure that reveals information about her competence to her allies and opponents. A message that increases beliefs about the incumbent’s competence is considered as propaganda. I show that for propaganda to be persuasive, it must be limited in frequency. I also demonstrate how various features of the environment affect the frequency of propaganda. Propaganda increases in frequency as the incumbent’s allies become more dependent on her and as her opponents become weaker. Further, there is a non-monotonic relationship between the strength of the conflict of interest between both her allies and her opponents and the frequency of propaganda. [R, abr.]
71.6837 ZAGÓRSKI, Piotr ; MARKOWSKI, Radosław —
During the long nineteenth century, Poland was divided among the Russian, Habsburg, and Prussian empires. The partition produced regional diversity in political culture and in institutional and economic development. We examine how the cultural legacies of the empires have influenced the propensity of Poles to cast a ballot in parliamentary elections since 1989. Polish National Election Study individual-level data are used to assess whether higher levels of electoral turnout in Galicia are indeed a legacy of the Habsburg rule. Our results confirm that, even after controlling for sociodemographic factors, there is a positive, substantive, and significant effect on turnout of living in the ex-Habsburg part of Poland. [R, abr.]
71.6838 ZAGÓRSKI, Piotr ; RAMA, Jose ; CORDERO, Guillermo —
The recent success of right-wing populist parties (RPPs) in Europe has given rise to different explanations. Economic factors have proven to be significant mainly at the aggregate level. As for the individual level, it has been argued that the so-called ‘losers of globalization’ — the less educated and less skilled, profiles with higher job insecurity — are more likely to support RPPs. Nevertheless, RPPs perform strikingly well in countries less affected by the Great Recession, gathering high levels of support among profiles not considered the losers of globalization. Moreover, the effect of age on support for RPPs is not clear, as, on the one hand, the young are better educated and skilled, but, on the other, they suffered the effects of the economic crisis more. [R, abr.]
71.6839 ZAINAL, Humairah ; ABDULLAH, Walid Jumblatt —
This article contributes to a more nuanced understanding of privilege as a conceptual category through the case study of Chinese privilege in Singapore politics. It does so through two main ways. First, at the theoretical level, we emphasise the importance of foregrounding the salience of political hegemony in the analysis of privilege. Second, at the empirical level, we interrogate the concept in an Asian context, with specific reference to Singapore. We argue that the existing focus on class privilege within the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) should go hand-in-hand with the study of Chinese privilege since PAP hegemony has significant implications on how race is constructed, understood and implicated in Singapore politics and society. Furthermore, PAP’s race-based approach to politics inadvertently perpetuates Chinese privilege, as exemplified by contradictions in minority representation in parliament and the clash between Chinese privilege and the government’s system of meritocracy. [R]
71.6840 ZULIANELLO, Mattia ; LARSEN, Erik Gahner —
Despite the increasing interest in populism, there is a lack of comparative and longterm evidence on the electoral performance of populist parties. We address this gap by using a novel dataset covering 92 populist parties in the European Parliament elections from 1979 to 2019. Specifically, we provide aggregate data on the electoral performance of all populist parties as well as the three ideational varieties of populism, i.e. right-wing, leftwing and valence populist parties. We show that there is significant variation both across countries as well as between the ideational varieties of populism. Most notably, while the success of left-wing and valence populists is concentrated in specific areas, right-wing populist parties have consolidated as key players in the vast majority of EU countries. [R]