Abstract
75.5980 ABDALA, M. Belén, et al. —
Internet voting is considered a crucial potential technological innovation, and scholars agree that trust plays a key role for its adoption and use by citizens. But which type of trust is essential, trust in government or trust in technology? We leverage on a cross-sectional analysis and a preregistered online experiment in Estonia to test a multidimensional trust framework. Examining the impact of trust dimensions on i-voting likelihood, we unveil a robust correlation between trust in government and in i-voting technology. While both elicit the intention to i-vote, trust in technology emerges as a stronger driver for the decision between online or in-person voting. These findings significantly contribute to comprehending i-voting and offer insights into the practical implementation of technology in democratic processes. [R]
75.5981 ABRAJANO, Marisa, et al. —
We examine how Latino online political activity compares to that of white Americans and the role of language in Latinos’ online political engagement. We hypothesize that Latino online political activity is comparable to whites. Moreover, given media reports suggesting that greater quantities of political misinformation are circulating on Spanish versus English-language social media, we expect reliance on Spanish-language social media for news predicts beliefs in inaccurate political narratives. Our survey findings, which we believe to be the largest original survey of the online political activity of Latinos and whites, reveal support for these expectations. Latino social media political activity, as measured by sharing/view-ing news, talking about politics, and following politicians, is comparable to whites, both in self-reported and digital trace data. Latinos also turned to social media for news about COVID-19 more often than did whites. [R, abr.]
75.5982 ACHARYA, Avidit ; LIPNOWSKI, Elliot ; RAMOS, João —
Viewing the relationship between politicians and voters as a principalagent interaction afflicted by moral hazard, we examine how political careers are shaped by the incentives that voters provide incumbents to work in the public interest. When moral hazard binds, the optimal way for voters to hold politicians accountable is to provide re-election incentives that evolve dynamically over their careers in office. Under these incentives, first-term politicians are among the most electorally vulnerable and the hardest-working; politician effort rises with electoral vulnerability; electoral security increases following good performance and decreases following bad performance; and both effort and electoral vulnerability tend to decline with tenure. In extensions, we study limited voter commitment, voluntary retirement from politics, and adverse selection. [R]
75.5984 AGGARWAL, Minali ; ENGLISH, Micah —
Scholars of gender have long realized that questions regarding gender, women, and politics require a multi-method, nuanced approach. When a plurality of white women voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, social scientists increasingly began to recognize the urgency of undertaking new approaches to understanding gender, race, and voting behavior in the United States. Since then, researchers have helped us understand why so many white women support right-wing candidates and policies that aim to suppress their autonomy, offering explanations such as the influence of belief in traditional gender roles (Christ-ley 2022), “possessive investments in white heteropatriarchy” (Strolovitch, Wong, and Proctor 2017, 354), and “gendered nationalism” in American politics (Deckman and Cassese 2021, 278). In more recent years — as election results and polling suggest growing numbers of men of color have shifted rightward — there has been increased interest in employing an intersectional approach to analyze the gulf between men and women of color. [R]
75.5775 AHLSKOG, Rafael —
Variation in political preferences is increasingly understood to stem from both environmental influences and genetics. Research in political psychology has argued that a pathway for genetic effects on ideology is via cognitive performance, showing a sizable genetic overlap between the traits. Yet the link between actual trait cognitive performance and economic conservatism is itself highly ambiguous, with both positive, null, and negative estimates prevalent in the literature. In this study, I argue that this puzzle can only be understood from a gene-environment interaction (GxE) perspective. Drawing on traditional theories of political preference formation, I argue that genetics associated with cognitive performance should cause more left-wing economic preferences if you grow up in relative poverty, but more right-wing economic preferences if you grow up affluent. Utilizing variation in a polygenic index (PGI) of cognitive performance within dizygotic twin pairs, coupled with unique register data on economic conditions for the twins, their parents, and their childhood neighborhood, I show that the causal effect of the PGI on economic conservatism is zero on average, but indeed sizable and sign-discordant by class background. The GxE perspective thus has wide-ranging implications for future research attempting to integrate genetic methods into political psychology. [R]
75.5985 AINSLEY, Claire —
Centre-left governments around the world are facing challenging re-elections as populist right-wing candidates and political parties make ground with a discontented electorate. This article draws on research for a project I direct on centre-left renewal at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), offering some preliminary insights into the forces at play in the recent presidential election in the United States and learning points for the Labour government in the United Kingdom. The research finds that the Democrats lost the presidential election largely owing to the loss of working class voters amongst the ethnically White, Hispanic and Black American population, who turned away from a Democratic Party they felt was not offering the country the change of direction they were seeking. In particular, the failure of former President Biden’s extensive economic programme to win support amongst the voters it was aimed at holds important lessons for centre-left parties aiming to replicate similar approaches. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6289]
75.5986 AKCA, Davut, et al. —
For decades, oppressive state policies have forced some Kurds to leave Turkey and seek refuge in Western countries, including Sweden and Canada. We conducted semi-structured interviews with Kurdish youth living in Canada and Sweden (N = 15) to explore the role of identity-related grievances in their involvement in the Kurdish movement, a political movement comprised of an array of actors including an armed group, political parties, and civil society organizations. By implementing the Building Resilience Against Violent Extremism (BRAVE) tool, we investigated their collective resilience against calls for violence, extremist views, and challenges caused by repression. Findings indicated that the major factors in their involvement were the restrictions on their language, culture, and identity; the discrimination and injustices against them and their community; the traumatic events that they experienced or witnessed; and the involvement of their family and community members in the movement. The overall resilience scores of the participants were high (M = 58.67 out of a potential 14-70), but they scored lower when their relationship with Turkish authorities is considered (M = 53.13; SD = 5.65) than with their host countries after resettlement (M = 58. 67; SD = 6.25). [R] [See Abstr. 75.6511]
75.5987 AKIRAV, Osnat —
The purpose of this article is to develop a better understanding of the political ambition of female candidates for mayorship. Recent studies maintain that women have fewer political ambitions because of gendered socialisation, feelings that they are unlikely to succeed, lack of mentorship, or the belief that politics are less useful for them. Offering a model that uses three internal factors — personal, professional and public — and one external factor — experience with NGOs — to indicate how women develop political ambition, this article rejects the claim that women have a lesser political ambition than men. It found that women chart their political path and narrative differently than men, seeking the support of the community when entering politics whereas men are likely to act alone. It further shows that women’s perceptions about their ability to be elected and their political leadership shape their political ambition and their willingness to be recruited. The findings contribute to the literature on the importance of self-perceptions as part of the long road to increasing women’s participation in politics. [R]
75.5988 ALBAREDA, Adrià ; MÜLLER, Moritz —
This study argues that political participation is a key factor when explaining levels of political trust among citizens. It explores how this relationship is moderated by the socio-economic status (i.e., household income and educational level) of citizens. The article contributes to the field of political trust by employing European Social Survey data from 2016 and 2018. Two findings stand out: firstly, whereas political participation through institutionalized channels is positively related to higher levels of trust among citizens with high socio-economic status, this effect is not present among citizens with lower levels of socio-economic status. Secondly, citizens that highly engage in non-institutionalized modes of political participation and with lower levels of socio-economic status are the ones with lower levels of political trust. [R]
75.5989 ALBAUGH, Quinn M., et al. —
The “gender gap” in voting is one of the most well-documented findings in survey research across democracies. However, gender gap research has traditionally assumed that everyone is either a man or a woman, which does not account for the growing number of people who identify as nonbinary. How do nonbinary people differ from men and women in their party identification and voting behavior? We answer this question using data from the 2021 Canadian Election Study online panel, which has a large enough subsample of nonbinary respondents to identify gaps in party identification and voting behavior. Nonbinary people are much less likely to identify with and vote for the Liberal Party or Conservative Party and much more likely to identify with and vote for the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) than both men and women. [R, abr.]
75.5990 AN, Seongho —
This study examines how US nonprofit homeless shelters strategically used social media for crisis communication during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using content analysis of 1,109 shelters’ activities on X (formerly Twitter), the research investigates communication strategies adapted to address clients’ evolving needs. Findings indicate a significant increase in social media engagement, with nearly half of COVID-19-related posts employing crisis narratives. These narratives — categorized as blame, renewal, victim, hero, and memorial — revealed a strategic shift toward victim and renewal themes. This evolution highlights nonprofits’ efforts to advocate for their clients by emphasizing challenges while fostering hope. By integrating crisis narrative theory with organizational crisis communication frameworks, this study offers valuable insights into the distinct approaches nonprofits utilize to navigate crises through social media. [R]
75.5991 ANGELUCCI, Davide ; ISERNIA, Pierangelo —
This article examines the domestic impact on Italian politics in 2024 of ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Public opinion is increasingly detached from international issues and persistently divided on foreign policy. The right-wing governing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni faces internal divisions, where the leadership’s pro-Ukraine stance contrasts with the electorate’s ambivalent views. To minimize the risks of politicization, the Government has adopted an ‘obfuscation’ strategy, avoiding emphasis on concrete commitments while claiming credit for supporting both the war effort and peace negotiations. This approach, consistent with traditional approaches to Italian foreign policy, has helped to maintain government stability. However, a Trump administration in the US and a geopolitically oriented European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen in 2025 could pose challenges. Pressure for increased Italian military spending, reduction of US military aid, a trade war and greater EU focus on Eastern Europe may strain the Government’s ability to reconcile international pressures with domestic politics. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6036]
75.5993 ARBATLI, Ekim ; ARBATLI, Cemal Eren —
For two decades, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey sustained its electoral performance at the local level. We offer and test a new mechanism that contributed to the party’s success in municipal elections. We argue that patronage links with religious civil society served as an important instrument of building and sustaining local incumbency advantage. Employing a close-election regression discontinuity design, we address two questions: To what extent did religious associations proliferate in AKP-controlled municipalities? Was this civil society penetration instrumental for the party’s electoral success? Employing a close-election regression discontinuity design (RDD), we show that in districts with a small-margin AKP victory in the 2014 elections, the number of religious associations in 2016 were significantly higher than in districts where AKP lost narrowly. We also find that the AKP incumbency in 2014 in closely contested districts increased the party’s vote share in the next local elections. Our results empirically demonstrate a new channel of local incumbency advantage. Moreover, we highlight the role of civil society as an agent of clientelistic exchange in competitive authoritarian regimes. [R]
75.5994 ARMALY, Miles T. ; BRUCE, John M. —
The American mass public abstractly supports the federal judiciary, but supports concrete alterations to the institution (e.g., term-limits). We argue that some efforts to alter the institution are not exclusively punitive, but relate to broader, non-judicial orientations toward government. Using nationally representative data from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES), we find that attitudes toward representation and which types of people ought to hold power underlie support for judicial elections. Specifically, perceived representation, believing men to be better suited to politics than women, and holding racist attitudes are related to support for appointments over elections, even when controlling for diffuse support, perceived judicial politicization, and other relevant measures regarding the judiciary. We argue such individuals wish to maintain the appointment system which has yielded perceived benefits. Additionally, political sophistication exacerbates these effects. [R, abr.]
75.5995 ARMALY, Miles T. ; ENDERS, Adam M. —
Using unique survey data, we employ latent profile analysis to estimate constellations of characteristics and orientations that relate to support for populist ideas in the US. Instead of a single, linear path, there are several routes to populist support composed of many combinations of social, psychological, and political characteristics. Whereas some turn to populism because they feel like victims of the political system, others do so to create exclusive sovereignty for their preferred identity group(s). We also find that populist support is more connected to psychological and political orientations than socioeconomic circumstances or even political predispositions, such as partisanship. While populism, itself, is not anti-democratic, some forms of populist support appear to be exclusionary on the grounds of race, religion, and political identity. [R, abr.]
75.5996 ARSLANALP, Mert ; ERKMEN, T. Deniz —
In this paper, we examine the relationship between the process of au-tocratisation and protests, and argue that scholarship on electoral autocracies should not only focus on major protest cycles but also examine ‘ordinary’ protests to understand how social and political actors resist and push back against autocratisation. Using an original dataset of protest events from 2015 to 2021, we analyse the transformation of protests in Turkey as it experienced gradual but significant autocratisation. We discuss two mechanisms through which autocratisation might affect levels, actors and repertoires of protesting: first, via increasing repression; and, second, via the policy choices of the authoritarian regime. Our findings indicate that protests continued even under the state of emergency in Turkey, but with significant changes in levels and repertoires of protesting. The protest scene was dominated by protests using tactics that rely on a small number of individuals and are contained in their spatial reach and disruptiveness. This research underlines the importance of examining ordinary protests to analyse how autocratisation transforms protests, using original data from local sources. [R]
75.5997 ASKANIUS, Tina ; MOLAS, Bàrbara ; AMARASINGAM, Am-arnath —
This comparative case study of the Freedom Movement in Sweden and the Freedom Convoy in Canada provides insights into the processes of transnationalization involved in the (re)production of far-right narratives around the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the online media of these protest movements we explore the extent to which the political and cultural context shaped far-right meta narratives and more universal concerns around the pandemic. The study finds significant similarities in how protest narratives in the two countries were constructed and appropriated to intersect with far-right extremism and anti-establishment ideas but also that these narratives were repurposed to make sense in two national contexts characterized by stark differences in the level of restrictions imposed and curtailment of civic rights. Unpacking the local/global intricacies of these narratives helps us understand the ubiquity of contemporary anti-government and anti-establishment discourse propelled by the far-right but also its malleability and flexibility in terms of how it is made to fit different political contexts and scenarios across liberal democracies. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6511]
75.5998 ATKESON, Lonna Rae ; McKOWN-DAWSON, Eli ; STEIN, Robert M. —
We revisit the effect of ballot access laws on voter confidence in the outcome of elections. Democrats and Republicans view election laws through a partisan lens, which is especially triggered when coalitions lose. Republican voters see ballot restrictions as a means of securing the vote against fraud; Democratic voters see ballot restrictions as voter suppression. We maintain that the conditional partisan effect that election laws have on voter confidence is triggered or attenuated when partisans’ candidates lose elections. We find that in states where ballot access is costly, voter confidence among partisans and supporters of the losing Presidential candidate is significantly higher for Republicans and significantly lower for Democrats than their counterparts in states with less costly ballot access laws. [R, abr.]
75.5999 AUGUST, Vincent —
Conflicts about climate action have persisted in Germany despite other crises. Research on this conflict is still emerging and requires constant updates as the situation continues to evolve. Currently, there is a strong focus on the climate movement and individual protest groups. This paper shifts the analytical approach by applying conflict theory to the quarrels over climate action since the rise of Fridays for Future. Analyzing a rich corpus of documents, the paper provides three key contributions: First, it reconstructs the conflict dynamics over time across multiple groups, linking conflict developments to mechanisms of escalation and de-escalation (e.g., organization and exhaustion of solidarity, alliances, and resources). Second, the paper highlights counterescalation dynamics with crucial impact on conflict development. Finally, accounting for counter- and de-escalation dynamics helps to explain the strategic shifts of groups such as Fridays for Future and the Last Generation. Overall, this paper advocates for a broader approach to the struggles about climate action that is grounded in conflict theory. It explores its potential using an extensive document review and outlines new directions for future research. Notably, conflict theory also provides a framework that can bridge research on protests and climate obstruction. [R]
75.6000 AYDIN-CAKIR, Aylin ; DRISCOLL, Amanda —
High profile court-curbing episodes from around the world are usually justified by populists who seek to minimize public backlash and legitimize their attacks on courts. Yet we do not know their effect on public trust in the target of reform. In this study we evaluate (1) whether different forms of court-curbing policies affect public confidence in their pinnacle court; (2) how populists’ justifications for these institutional attacks impact citizens’ trust; and (3) how support for the incumbent government condition public responses to (1) and (2). We fielded a face-to-face, nationally representative survey experiment with 1014 respondents in Turkey, where courtcurbing is common, and the public support of the populist incumbent varies. We find that irrespective of its form, court-curbing of any kind undermines the public’s confidence in the constitutional court, although presenting the citizens with justifications does not affect their trust. Nevertheless, we observe that these effects are highly dependent on pre-existing government support or opposition, a fact that aligns with extant research on the instrumental foundations of public support for courts. [R]
75.6001 AYOUB, Phillip M. ; PAGE, Douglas ; WHITT, Sam —
How can LGBT+ activists counter growing international backlash, especially in conservative contexts where LGBT+ people face discrimination? We consider the consequences of linking domestic opponents of LGBT+ rights to international anti-LGBT+ messengers, arguing that such linkages might work to impede backlash. The case of Bosnia informs our study as a conservative society where LGBT+ people have made both progress but also face staunch opposition. We inquire how linking domestic anti-LGBT+ political leaders (i.e., reputational chaining) to the agenda of Russian President Vladimir Putin, a well-recognized but also polarizing international anti-LGBT+ messenger, influences public opinion. Our experiments are designed to raise questions about the moral authority of Putin and political leaders associated with him. [R, abr.]
75.6002 BACIK, Gokhan ; SEKER, Serkan —
This article analyzes the nascent politics of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on archaeology. In the quest to transform the Turkish state, archaeology is tasked by the ruling party to become a significant medium in the production of a new national history and identity. This study reveals that the instrumentalization of archaeology serves primarily the AKP’s bid to construct a new state identity, one that is an amalgam of Islamism and nationalism with an anti-Westernism tenet. The article investigates two cases that illustrate the AKP’s nascent politics of archaeology and explains how that politics impacts the discipline. [R]
75.6003 BAKER, Anne ; SCHNEIDER, Monica C. —
Recent work on party asymmetry in the United States characterizes the Democratic Party as a group-oriented party and the Republican Party as an ideologically oriented party. Gender studies of opinion preferences support a group-based conceptualization of the Democratic Party, with women being a represented group, but suggest the possibility that the Republican Party may exhibit greater ideological heterogeneity when differences based upon gender are considered. To this end, we investigate variations in policy opinions using a difference in means analysis comparing women and men congressional donors and men and women non-donating selfidentifiers in the Republican Party. We also model congressional contributing among Republican women. Together, the results suggest that Republican women donors’ preferences converge with those of men. However, women non-donors are more moderate than women congressional donors, as well as men congressional donors and non-donors, suggesting there is greater ideological heterogeneity within the Republican Party than studies of party asymmetry report. [R]
75.6004 BAKER, Melissa N. ; CANELO, Kayla S. —
Unethical behavior among US judges, including sexual misconduct and other forms of discriminatory behavior, is becoming increasingly publicized. These controversies are particularly concerning given the important role judges play in shaping policy pertaining to individual rights. We argue that types of misconduct serve as a signal to the public about potential threats judges may pose to people, particularly groups of people who are marginalized. We use a survey experiment that introduces a judge who has engaged in misconduct to measure if the type of misconduct will influence attitudes on whether the judge poses a threat to the rights of women, racial minorities, and ethnic minorities. Interestingly, we find that judges accused of discriminatory misconduct toward one group are viewed as a threat to rights across the board and are seen as less able to rule fairly on matters pertaining to marginalized people more generally. [R]
75.6005 BAKIŞ, Ozan ; FILIZTEKIN, Alpay —
This article examines intergenerational educational mobility among various ethnic and religious groups in Turkey. We focus on directional mobility and show that ethnic Kurds have significantly lower upward mobility than ethnic Turks, and Alevis observe marginally higher upward mobility relative to their Sunni counterparts. The region an individual is born into also makes a difference. Those who are born in the eastern part of the country exhibit lower mobility than those who are born in the west. There is a significant difference in mobility between men and women irrespective of their ethnic origin or religious affiliation as well. [R]
75.6006 BARARI, Soubhik ; LUCAS, Christopher ; MUNGER, Kevin —
There is widespread concern that political “deepfakes” — fabricated videos synthesized by deep learning — pose an epistemic threat to democracy as a uniquely credible form of misinformation. To test this hypothesis, we created novel deepfakes in collaboration with industry partners and a professional actor. We then experimentally assess whether deepfakes are distinctly deceptive and find that deepfakes are approximately as credible as misinformation communicated through text or audio. However, in a follow-up discernment task, subjects often confuse authentic videos for deepfakes if the video depicts an elite in their political party in a scandal. Moreover, informational interventions and accuracy primes only sometimes (and somewhat) attenuate deepfakes’ effects. In sum, our results show that while deepfakes may not be uniquely deceptive, they may still erode trust in media and increase partisan polarization. [R]
75.6007 BARRIE, Christopher —
Revolutionary protest rarely begins as democratic or revolutionary. Instead, it grows in a process of positive feedback, incorporating new constituencies and generating new demands. If protest is not revolutionary at its onset, theory should reflect this and be able to explain the endogenous emergence of democratic demands. In this article, I combine multiple data sources on the 2010-2011 Tunisian Revolution, including survey data, an original event catalogue, and field interviews. I show that the correlates of protest occurrence and participation change significantly during the uprising. Using the Tunisian case as a theory-building exercise, I argue that the formation of protest coalitions is essential, rather than incidental, to democratic revolution. [R]
75.6008 BARTELS, Jan-Eric ; SPRINGER, Frederik —
Small and marginal parties (SMPs) are a constant feature of the party landscape in Germany’s political system. Some of these parties have failed to enter parliament for a long time, with many already dissolving soon after they were founded. One reason for this lack of political clout may be a lower level of resources at the individual level. Using data from the Forsa-Bus, we show that the socioeconomic makeup of members of SMPs differs from that of members of large parties. SMP members take up the middle ground between members of large parties and non-mem-bers, which means that these parties encourage the political participation of a more diverse socioeconomical group. This leads to a broader public being involved in the democratic process of elections than initially anticipated. [R]
75.6009 BARTHOLOMAEUS, Jonathan ; STRELAN, Peter —
In October 2023, Australia voted on whether to enshrine in the constitution an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander “Voice” to Parliament. Debate around the Voice raised questions of justice and deservingness for a marginalized group within Australian society. The belief in a just world, the perception of fairness in this world for others (BJW-other) and the self (BJW-self), was, therefore, central to how people formed and expressed their opinions. In this longitudinal study (N = 253), we examined associations between BJW-other, BJW-self, and attitudes, intentions, and actions towards the Voice before and after the vote. Analysis indicated broadly negative associations between T1 BJW-other and pro-Voice outcomes (at both timepoints), while BJW-self was positively related. Findings were, however, inconsistent when controlling for a broad range of sociopolitical covariates. These findings make an important contribution to justice motive theory by illustrating the role of justice beliefs in the political context. [R]
75.6010 BARTHWAL, Ankita ; JENSENIUS, Francesca R. —
In developing countries, partisanship is pervasive, but its motivations remain largely unexplored. Whereas non-programmatic party-voter linkages dominate the political discourse in these contexts, we posit that such linkages are probably not the sole motivating factor behind partisanship. Drawing on interviews and an original survey from India — a context rife with non-programmatic exchanges — we find that partisans generally attribute their loyalty to parties’ ideological positions and policy platforms. This finding is reinforced by a priming experiment in which respondents made to reflect on parties’ ideologies and policies were more likely to selfreport as partisans. Priming non-programmatic party-voter linkages in the form of community-based favoritism produces no discernible effect. We explore differences between those attributing their own partisan loyalty to more programmatic or more non-programmatic motivations. [R, abr.]
75.6011 BATESON, Regina —
Victimization is often associated with increased political participation, and victims are influential political actors in many countries around the world. Yet for victims, activism is costly: they tell and re-tell painful stories, face searing criticism, and work to exhaustion — all at one of the worst moments of their lives. So why do they do it? Based on ethnographic research with Families for Safe Streets, a group of victims-turned-activists in New York City, this article advances a new explanation for victims’ participation in politics. I propose that for some victims, meaning-making is an in-process benefit of activism. My inductive research suggests … ways victims find meaning in politics. [R, abr.]
75.6012 BATRIĆEVIĆ, Nemanja ; VUJOVIĆ, Zlatko ; JANKOVIĆ, Uglješa —
Ongoing conflicts in the world serve as a reminder of the tensions between democratic institutions and unresolved ethnic grievances. While much is known about institutional factors tying ethnopolitics with democratic performance, much less attention has been given to the role of interpersonal interaction in determining the strength of democratic legitimacy. This article contributes to the existing literature by establishing the link between intergroup hostility and satisfaction with democracy (SWD). We argue that interethnic hostility aimed at undermining one’s dignity triggers a psychological response that, in the end, erodes support for a democratic regime expected to ensure equal treatment of all groups. We test our theory in the Western Balkans, using data from the Montenegrin National Election Study (2023). Our findings show that (1) there is a significant negative effect of intergroup hostility on SWD; (2) the effect of intergroup hostility is amplified by the frequency of contact between the victim and members of the alleged perpetrator’s ethnic group; (3) intergroup hostility lowers the victim’s level of SWD both directly and indirectly, through diminishing assessment of the system’s input and output legitimacy. [R]
75.6013 BAUMERT, Jona-Frederik —
This paper examines the effects of public party financing and parliamentary representation on political competition in German state elections. For this purpose, a regression discontinuity analysis was conducted on a Bayesian basis. If a party exceeds the threshold of 1% of valid votes, above which it is entitled to public funds, the probability of running again in the next election increases from 60% to 82%. Parties that narrowly overcome the 5% threshold and thus gain parliamentary representation have a 14-percentage-point higher chance of being (re)represented in parliament at the next election compared to parties that narrowly fail to reach the threshold. When robustness tests are carried out, this effect is reduced to around six percentage points. The two effects are not directly comparable, as they are only valid in the vicinity of the respective threshold, and different dependent variables are considered. Nevertheless, the results indicate that the influence of public party funding in state elections is more significant than that of the 5% threshold. In contrast to the probability of recandidacy and reentry, there is no significant effect on the share of the vote in the next election at either the 1% threshold or the 5% threshold. [R]
75.6014 BEAUSOLEIL, Emily —
Deliberative processes are an antidote to despair about the inadequacies of politics-as-usual, but the “deliberative wave” (OECD 2021) of these initiatives around the globe has the potential, in some contexts, to be the latest face of colonization. In Aotearoa New Zealand, one project has worked since 2019 to design a climate assembly that enacts Te Tiriti o Waitangi (1840) obligations to honour Māori political authority. This article outlines the project’s three innovations to the citizens’ assembly design that centre Māori forms of governance and reflect Māori deliberative protocols, and highlights three important distinctions to how a group of tangata Tiriti (people of the Treaty) has worked in partnership with tangata whenua (people of the land). Each feature has been vital to becoming Te Tiriti-led despite a context of ongoing colonization, with this place-based assembly having major implications for deliberation theory and practice worldwide. [R]
75.6015 BECERRIL-VIERA, Isabel —
This study analyses the implications of the adoption of online format in the design of democratic innovations, specifically in three key dimensions: the inclusiveness of participants, the provision of information and the interaction between participants. The main objective is to explore these qualities of face-to-face and online participatory initiatives in Spain and to try to explain their differences. Part of these differences may be due to the format (face-to-face versus online), but we will also analyse other possible explanatory factors of the design, such as the vocation for stability, the ideology of the local governments and the income of the municipalities. To do so, we follow a quantitative methodological design based on the analysis of data from an online survey addressed to all town councils of municipalities with more than 1000 inhabitants in Andalusia and Madrid. The database collected 608 participatory experiences that were being implemented in 2020 at the local level. The main findings suggest that online initiatives show a greater intention of inclusiveness of participants, with more open selection mechanisms, as well as providing information about the process in a more diversified way, through various channels. In contrast, the online format tends to be less conducive to horizontal interaction and debate among participants than face-to-face initiatives. [R]
75.6016 BECKTON, Samuel Gary —
As the third Irish Home Rule crisis grew more threatening from 1911 onwards, Ulster Unionists began searching for allies across the British Empire, including in Australia. This article highlights the role and influence of the Australian anti-Home Rule movement from 1911 to 1914, investigating why the Loyal Orange Institution in Australia published resolutions sympathetic to the Unionist cause. The article also investigates who the supporters were, who donated thousands of pounds in aid, or who enlisted in an Australian Ulster volunteer contingent. Most importantly, it considers how widespread and organised these Ulster sympathisers were, particularly by 1914 when they produced an anti-Home Rule petition. [R]
75.6017 BEKMAGAMBETOV, Amanzhol —
This study investigates how exposure to critical social media content influences political engagement in authoritarian regimes, focusing on Kazakhstan. Addressing a gap in existing research, this paper examines the moderating role of state media fairness perceptions. Using representative survey data (N = 6,800), the analyses confirm that critical social media exposure is positively linked with political engagement, including state-sanctioned activities like party contact and legislative engagement. However, this effect varies significantly based on individuals’ perceptions of state media fairness. These results suggest that critical content can foster broader political participation and highlight the nuanced role of state media in shaping political behavior in closed states. [R]
75.6018 BENEDEK, István —
Although the research subjects of populism and autocratization studies are interconnected, the full potential of combining their focuses — the dynamic elements of political systems and institutional dimensions — into a comprehensive and systematic conceptual framework remains underexploited. This study makes a stride in this direction by reviewing and connecting these areas through the concepts of populist autocratization and populist electoral autocracies. These concepts aim to deepen our understanding of the nature of contemporary autocratization and the stability of autocracies. While the study is primarily theoretical-conceptual in nature, it also engages with methodological and operationalization considerations, and outlines a brief research agenda to demonstrate the empirical applicability of the analytical framework and lays the foundation for future research. [R]
75.6019 BERGLUND, Oscar —
Disruptive protest has become increasingly studied and promoted across the social sciences, not least in relation to climate protests. This paper asks what the rationale and effects of disruptive protest are. It argues that disruptive protest carries a prefigurative legitimacy, envisaging a more democratic and just society while aiming for broader appeal and legitimacy rendered by liberal discourses. The paper takes a political theory perspective through both the literature on civil disobedience and the anarchist literature on direct action. It then explores how the key attributes of these literatures render legitimacy to the practices and discourses of two social movements that have made widespread use of disruptive protest in recent years: the Spanish anti-eviction movement Plataforma de Afectados por la Hipoteca (PAH) and the mainly British climate change movement Extinction Rebellion (XR). [R]
75.6020 BEUTLER, Pieter ; VAN MEURS, Wim ; OPREL, Marieke —
With a special focus on the Dutch Politieke Partij Radikalen (PPR) and its sister party Die Grünen in the period 1968 to 1984, this historical study of the early years of the alliance of green parties in Europe provides a new perspective on the roots of green politics in Europe. Comparing the origins of Die Grünen and the PPR shows how the differences in parliamentary structure and political context between the Netherlands and Germany led to similar green ideals taking shape in different party forms. While her green colleagues were still in the early or even preliminary stages of their party formation during the late seventies, the PPR already had representation in the Dutch parliament for more than a decade and more than four years of government experience. [R, abr.]
75.6021 BEZRUKOVA, Olha ; VILKOVA, Olena ; PETRENKO-LYSAK, Alla —
This paper examines how the 2022 Russian invasion reshaped Ukrainian social perceptions. Before the invasion, opinions on the war’s likelihood varied due to propaganda and history. This research analyzes sociological data from the first year of the war to understand evolving attitudes toward the war, national identity and Russia. Synthesizing surveys and reports, the study reveals that despite initial disbelief, Ukrainians rapidly mobilized, demonstrating resilience and rejecting territorial concessions. The war solidified national identity, strengthened the Ukrainian language’s role and redefined perceptions of Russia, emphasizing not just state aggression but also societal responsibility. Public trust in institutions and engagement in volunteer and military support also significantly increased. These findings illuminate how war impacts social cohesion and nation-building under existential threat. The study offers valuable insights for researchers and policymakers, aiding in developing strategies for strengthening civil society, resilience and postwar adaptation. It underscores the importance of social cohesion and civic engagement, recommending further research into the war’s long-term social, political and psychological impact on Ukraine. [R] [See Abstr. 75.5921]
75.6022 BIRD, Christine C. ; HOUSTON, Rachael ; SHIEH, Marcy —
Interest groups capitalize on the opportunity to influence salient US Supreme Court confirmations, while pursuing organizational and policy goals and hoping to mobilize the public. We test the opportunities and limits of ad influence on political mobilization specifically looking at calls to action (i.e., donations, contacting senators, and social media engagement). By analyzing responses to real interest group-produced video ads from Amy Coney Barrett’s and Ketanji Brown Jackson’s nominations, we discover ads can potentially influence individuals’ political behavior online and spur offline political engagement. Specifically, we find name recognition, partisan congruence, and positive tone positively influence respondent engagement in calls to action. We find ad format in terms of forced exposure and negative tone decrease engagement likelihood. Our study contributes novel insights into the role of online advertising in shaping political behavior around nominations in the digital age. [R]
75.6023 BLASINGAME, Elise ; HANSEN, Eric R. ; WITMER, Richard C. —
Descriptive representatives often sponsor legislation that advances their groups’ policy interests, but it remains unclear how successful they are passing such legislation. Colleagues might defer and support group-relevant measures from descriptive representatives, perceiving them to have greater expertise and legitimate claims to address the issues than outgroup members. However, colleagues might also oppose those measures in an act of backlash against those groups (especially historically marginalized groups) making new claims on the political system. To answer the question of descriptive representative success, we review 3,401 pieces of legislation related to Native American issues introduced at the state level between 2010 and 2020. We find that measures related to Native affairs are no more likely to pass if sponsored by a Native lawmaker than if sponsored by a non-Native lawmaker. [R, abr.]
75.6024 BLOOMER, Fiona ; ROBERTS, Danielle ; CAMPBELL, Emma —
Abortion was decriminalised in Northern Ireland in October 2019. This historic change was introduced by the UK Parliament following lengthy activist campaigns, national and international inquiries, and regional and national court cases. This paper focuses on two legislatures, the Northern Ireland Assembly, and the UK Parliament, examining the role played by each in how decriminalisation was achieved. Tracing efforts dating back to the introduction of the Northern Ireland Assembly in 1998, the analysis charts how the often-hostile approach to reform changed, prior to, and following, decriminalisation. In contrast, the UK Parliament’s treatment of the abortion issue in Northern Ireland over the same period veered from ignorance to apathy to engagement. The paper examines the external and internal influences in each legislature, illustrating the different discourses within each. In the Northern Ireland Assembly, we trace how the debate on abortion was shaped around the question of abortion, whereas in the UK Parliament, the issue of devolution dominated. This paper offers a unique comparative analysis from the position of involved campaigners, of the multi-jurisdictional efforts to bring about historic legal change which moved Northern Ireland from having one of the most restricted legal frameworks globally on abortion to one of the most liberal. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6704]
75.6025 BOEHMKE, Frederick J. ; BRANTON, Regina ; WITMER, Richard C. —
The introduction of Indian gaming has offered a new path for economic development, allowing gaming nations to achieve greater self-sufficiency. The benefits of gaming have also extended beyond the boundary of Indian nations as adjacent communities benefit from the demand created by Indian casinos. As Indian gaming expands, it is important to consider how the public perceives this form of Native American economic development. Herein, we examine public sentiment regarding Indian gaming using original survey data. Of particular interest is the effect of living near tribal gaming on the perceived costs and benefits and support for Indian gaming. To measure the effect of such exposure, we utilize a maximum likelihood estimator that allows simultaneous estimation of the effect of such exposure and the shape of the distance decay function that governs the measure of exposure itself. [R, abr.]
75.6026 BOGAIN, Ariane —
In recent years, many Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) programs, formed to counter radicalisation into ‘jihadist’ extremism, have begun to address far-right extremism. We critically assess this expansion through a focus on masculinities. We conduct an in-depth intersectional analysis of representations of masculinities in 87 publications by ten influential organisations working in transnational P/CVE. We explore how these representations intersect with identity markers of race, age, class and geographic location and how they are connected to notions about gendered and political violence as systemic or aberrant. We relate this to an underlying dynamic which Inderpal Grewal has termed ‘outsourcing patriarchy’, a move which aligns patriarchal and misogynist ideas with the Non-West. Despite efforts to overcome both gender-blindness and the singular focus on ‘jihadist’ extremism, P/CVE programs still tend to be based on notions of masculinities that perpetuate patriarchal and colonial legacies. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 75.6286]
75.6027 BOLLEYER, Nicole —
Cartel party theory has put the study of party-state relations high on the research agenda, deliberately shifting the focus of researchers away from an understanding of political parties on the basis of their relationship with civil society or, indeed, as part of civil society itself. As fruitful as this reorientation has been, this essay argues that the resulting emphasis on ‘parties as governors’ has produced downsides of its own. Cartel party theory reinforced a separation of the study of parties from the study of other membership organizations considered the very fabric of civil societies. While their governing role makes parties distinct from the latter, I argue that what parties do and how they function should be also assessed against other organizations such as interest groups or associations through which citizens engage in joint activities including but not restricted to political interest representation. The contention is that bringing the study of party back to civil society will generate a broader understanding of the possible roles political parties can (or cannot) play in contemporary democracy than an exclusive study of party as a separate genus. [R]
75.6028 BONANSINGA, Donatella —
This conceptual article calls for the integration of new approaches to the study of visual populist communication, arguing that it will play a critical part in a new era of radical right mainstreaming. Extant scholarship on the mainstreaming of the radical right has focused on party politics and rhetoric, neglecting the visual self-presentation and emotional strategies of radical right leaders on platforms like Instagram and TikTok. The article proposes the novel concept of ‘visual de-demonisation’ to capture these dynamics, articulating it as a three-fold strategy that emphasises the legitimacy, good character and ample policy platform of radical right leaders on visual social media. The article also argues that visual platforms provide the radical right with the ideal setting to present itself in a renewed and more positive light, hence serving its strategic interest in de-demonising. This poses a key challenge for the future, potentially contributing to its increased normalisation. [R]
75.6029 BRANNON, Elizabeth L. —
How did women’s wartime labour in the National Resistance Army during the Bush War in Uganda influence their post-war political opportunities? Women’s inclusion served a practical purpose of alleviating recruitment and governance challenges. This article argues women’s wartime inclusion had subsequent effects on women’s representation — likely also driven by practicality rather than feminist change. Newly collected data on the political roles of former rebels following the war are examined to understand how women’s political representation increased alongside changes in the representation of former rebels. [R]
75.6030 BRANT, Hanna K. —
The 2018 election cycle was referred to as a “Rainbow Wave” because of the record number of LGBTQ+ candidates seeking and winning elective office. The backlash toward the LGBTQ+ community during the first Trump administration, at the local and national level, invigorated queer candidates to run for office. Then, in 2020 and 2022, news headlines again called the election cycles a “Rainbow Wave” (Debussy 2020; Lavietes 2022). According to the Victory Institute, the 2024 election marked a 1.1% increase in LGBTQ+ candidates compared to 2020, however, it was also a 4.8% decrease compared to candidates in 2022. Further, among LGBTQ+ candidates, the share of lesbian candidates dropped nearly 10 percentage points, from 26.7% of all LGBTQ+ candidates in 2020 to only 16.1% in 2024. At the same time, the group of LGBTQ+ candidates in 2024 were the most racially diverse in history, with 37.6% being people of color and just over 15% not identifying as cisgender (LGBTQ+ Victory Fund 2024). [R]
75.6031 BRANTON, Regina P. ; CAREY, Tony E., Jr —
There has been growing scholarly attention to the relationship between contextual exposure to police killings and political engagement. Recent studies offer mixed findings. Some studies show local exposure to police killings increase both voting and protest activity, while other work suggests such exposure represses political activity. We contend that the relationship of police killings to Black political activity varies depending on the cumulative effect of police killings within citizens’ communities. Most existing studies rely upon a single event of police violence or a limited time range to evaluate the influence of contextual exposure. Our focus on the cumulative effects of police killings is important given many African-Americans live in communities where such violence has been prevalent for years. [R, abr.]
75.6032 BRECKWOLDT, James —
Despite their recent prominence, it is unclear how electorally important new culture war topics (such as statues, LGBT+ representation in popular culture, diversity training, transgender athletes, curriculum diversity and university free speech) are for voters, particularly cross-pressured ones. To address this, this study conducts an original vote-choice conjoint experiment in the UK to test the extent to which people base their vote on these new culture war issues when they are included in a policy platform alongside long-standing economic and non-economic issues. I find that culture war issues are consistently important for those with more conservative cultural beliefs, whilst those with right-traditionalist and, to a lesser extent, left-traditionalist values prioritize them when cross-pressured. These results highlight the political dynamics of contemporary culture wars and vote-choice in multi-dimensional elections, as well as the value of studying political beliefs relative to each other. [R]
75.6033 BRIEBA, Daniel ; VELASCO, Andrés —
Despite their poor record in office, populists continue to win elections. Traditional models that assume a narrow definition of self-interest fail to explain the electoral resilience of populism. Contrary to conventional wisdom, voters typically make choices based on their social identities and support candidates with whom they can identify. Because populism is a variety of identity politics — always based on ‘us’ versus ‘them’ — democrats and liberals seeking to counter it should play the identity game in a virtuous way, rather than vilify it or pretend it does not exist. More specifically, they should try to build inclusive identities through a liberal patriotic narrative that fosters a sense of shared fate across diverse groups. This article discusses specific features of this narrative and the supporting conditions it requires to become a plausible alternative to right-wing populists’ divisive appeals. [R]
75.6034 BUCH, Tanja ; ROSSEN, Anja —
Right-wing attitudes are increasing in most countries. Within the countries, there is a large variation in popularity. At the same time, regions are competing against each other to attract workers. This article examines the influence of right-wing attitudes at the regional level, measured by the electoral success of right-wing parties, on labour migration at the German district level. Using an empirical strategy that combines a treatment setup with entropy balancing, we find that right-wing attitudes in a district region significantly reduce in-migration to these regions. Across different groups, we find the strongest effects for young and high-skilled individuals. With respect to out-migration, right-wing attitudes do not encourage Germans to move away but encourage them to stay. For non-Germans, the effects are reversed; they tend to leave regions with high levels of right-wing attitudes, but with the exception of highly qualified individuals, they are also more likely to move to these regions. [R]
75.6035 BUISSERET, Peter ; VAN WEELDEN, Richard —
We study how office-seeking parties use direct democracy to shape elections. A party with a strong electoral base can benefit from using a binding referendum to resolve issues that divide its core supporters. When referendums do not bind, however, an electorally disadvantaged party may initiate a referendum to elevate new issues. It does so with the goal of dividing its stronger opponent’s supporters. We identify conditions under which direct democracy improves congruence between policy outcomes and voter preferences, but also show that it can lead to greater misalignment both on issues subject to direct democracy and those that are not. [R]
75.6036 BULL, Martin ; POLVERARI, Laura —
The Meloni government during 2024 was characterized by unexpected stability and consolidation of its political dominance. The year 2024 marked a return to ‘politics in the strict sense’, following years of anti-politics and technocratic governance, but with a government embodying a sui generis coalition, characterized by limited competition both within and outside government. Factors contributing to the government’s stability included Meloni’s firm grip over her party, Fratelli d’Italia’s electoral dominance, the strategic pursuit of major reforms that were vital to each of the coalition parties, and a pragmatic approach to foreign policy and societal demands. However, by year’s end there were several challenges emerging that could yet test the coalition’s unity, including: the return of austerity measures, the uncertain fate of reforms, the underperformance of major investment programmes, and the pressure from upcoming elections. [R] [First article of a thematic isue on “Politics in Italy 2025. The consolidation of the Meloni government and a return to politics”, introduced by James L. NEWELL, “Giorgia Meloni and the post-truth society”, pp. 123-129. See also Abstr. 75.5905, 5938, 5991, 6046, 6062, 6081, 6620, 6637]
75.6037 BUNDZÍKOVÁ, Veronika ; JANŠTA, Denis —
After the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014, ties between European far-right parties and Russia came under scrutiny. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine has made Russia a problematic political ally. This article explores how three Slovakian far-right parties, known for their pro-Russian stance, framed the war in Ukraine in the preceding months and in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. Framework analysis is deployed to discuss their statements from the escalation of tensions in December 2021 until the end of the Kyiv offensive in April 2022. The interpretation demonstrates how these parties’ pro-Russian stance was actually a cover for anti-Western sentiments rather than sincere endorsement of Russia’s actions. [R]
75.6038 BUYENS, Willem —
News is ever more accessible and consumed via social media, and on those platforms, its distribution is influenced by intermediaries. Because people are exposed to news via online influencers, it is important to know if and how they can impact audience attitudes. This study addresses the effects of politicians’ news sharing on social media users’ attitudes toward the news. Based on a survey experiment with Belgian citizens (N = 1,278), findings indicate that respondents rate news as less credible when it is shared by a politician from a party they would not vote for. This effect is consistent across different types of news outlets. There is no consistent interaction effect with respondents’ levels of media trust. Exploratory analyses highlight that respondents are more likely to select news that is shared by politicians from their preferred party. Thus, politicians’ news sharing not only affects attitudes toward the news but also news consumption. [R]
75.6039 CAMPBELL, Emma ; ROBERTS, Danielle —
In 2019, abortion was decriminalised in Northern Ireland (NI) after decades of campaigning against the almost-total ban. Abortion activists in NI used multiple tools for change, utilising a feminist law-making strategy that also encompassed ‘cheeky’ witnessing [Fletcher, R. (2020). Cheeky witnessing. Feminist Review, 124(1), 124-141] and movement-building alongside mutual-aid approaches to care. This paper outlines the significant contribution of alternative creative modes of dialogue from the insider perspective of core Alliance for Choice activists. The key element of the campaign towards decriminalisation in NI, was inspired and influenced by the global networks of abortion campaigns also utilising digital networks to challenge problematic abortion discourse with an abundance of creative content. It also required daily visual online output that complimented and coalesced the wider campaign, in a digital space that [Butler, J. (2018). Notes toward a performative theory of assembly. Harvard University Press] contends is a version of the public street. This paper offers a unique insight into the creative production and careful navigation required for campaigning towards decriminalisation in the NI. It examines the complexity of the digital space and its challenges and opportunities for abortion activists. It offers lessons for other campaigns against abortion restrictions and other social justice movements. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6704]
75.6040 CANAVAN, Miceal ; TURKOGLU, Oguzhan —
Curfews are commonly used by governments to control restive populations during conflict, but are they effective? Although the primary goal for governments is to increase military advantage, they also cause significant disruptions to civilian life which may provoke a backlash. In this study, we analyze the effect of curfews on public attitudes and rebel attacks in Turkey. Exploiting the closeness of two national elections and the implementation of curfews between these elections, we employ novel data in a difference-in-difference analysis to examine effects on voting and violence. Our results show that curfews provoke a dual backlash effect. First, they decrease support for the ruling party and increase support for Kurdish and Turkish national opposition parties in the areas where they are implemented. Second, they increase the number of rebel attacks in the areas that experience a curfew. This paper provides robust evidence for the backlash effects of indiscriminate non-violent tactics. [R]
75.6041 CARLO, Donato Di ; HASSEL, Anke ; HÖPNER, Martin —
Since the introduction of the euro, German growth has been primarily based on exports. Signs of an exhaustion of Germany’s export-led growth model were already evident before the energy crisis of 2022-23, which hit the country hard. German elites could have capitalized on the shock to rebalance their growth strategy. But the opposite happened: the government’s adjustment strategy has aimed at doubling down on export-led growth and protecting the core export industries. This article investigates the politics of Germany’s economic policymaking in hard times. We show that the government’s economic policy responses were driven largely by an export sector growth coalition led by cross-class alliances in the chemical, metalworking, and engineering sectors. In contrast to previous corpo-ratist decision-making, which aimed to include broader societal concerns in peak-level concertation, German corporatism has undergone a functional transformation toward the predominance of export sector distributive coalitions. This article’s findings contribute to the emerging literature on the politics of growth models in comparative political economy. [R]
75.6042 CARTY, R. Kenneth —
This essay investigates and describes the political regime that dominated much of Irish political life in the twentieth century. It was marked by the rise, and eventual fall, of Fianna Fáil as the nation’s government party. It charts the creation of the Fianna Fáil regime — the building of a government party to manage a state deliberately cast in its own terms — and then identifies and explores the long decade that saw the slow collapse of both. In the aftermath, the fragmentation of national political competition, and the challenges to the constitutional framework, have left a political regime bereft of the party and constitutional frames that long defined its core political moorings. [R]
75.6043 CASAREZ LEMI, Danielle —
At the 2024 US Democratic Convention, Kamala Harris presented her approach to the military in her speech accepting her historic nomination as the party’s candidate for the US presidency. In this essay, I reflect on the question: what would it mean if a woman of color led the American empire? I argue that scholars of gender, politics, and representation must turn their attention toward evaluating not just how gender conditions how politicians legislate, run their campaigns, or face barriers to winning office — but whether and to what extent politicians of any gender use their identities to combat the material suffering wrought by American imperialism. I echo calls for greater attention to power structures in the study of gender and representation (Brown, et al. 2024) and argue that we must decenter “imperial feminism” and recenter tenets from Black and Third World feminism (Amos and Parmar 1984; Johnson-Odim 1991; Taylor 2017). To this end, I theorize a new type of representative that bridges these concerns: identity representatives. [R]
75.6044 CASIRAGHI, Matteo C. M. ; CURINI, Luigi ; NAI, Alessandro —
Under what conditions do citizens support restrictive and punitive measures to curb global crises? This article investigates the role of political trust in supporting different interventions across three types of crises — pandemics, climate change, and terrorism — both directly and in conjunction with issue-related anxiety. We test the hypothesis that political trust positively affects the likelihood of accepting restrictive measures during crisis, focusing on Italy as a relevant case study due to its comparatively low levels of political trust. According to affective intelligence theory, we also expect that individual anxiety moderates such a relationship: Political trust should have an effect primarily when people are not anxious. To examine this, we conducted a conjoint experiment administered to a nationally representative sample of 1000 Italian citizens. Respondents were presented with a “crisis vignette” where the nature of the crisis, its severity, and the state measures implemented to curb the threat were randomly allocated as attributes. They were then asked to rate their support for the proposed measure. Results confirm that political trust matters. Citizens with high levels of trust are generally more willing to accept restrictions. However, as predicted, political trust only influences non-anxious voters. [R]
75.6045 CASTANHO SILVA, Bruno ; PULLAN, Danielle ; WÄCKERLE, Jens —
Women in male-dominated organizations often must adopt more stereotypical masculine traits to advance within those hierarchies. While politics, historically male-dominated, should induce women to blend in, increasing numbers of women in parliaments may give women the opportunity to stand out by not adopting a masculine style. This paper investigates how these contradictory incentives influence female Members of Parliament (MPs) in 24 democracies between 1987 and 2022, applying machine learning to 6.8 million parliamentary speeches to measure how feminine is their speaking style. Findings indicate a socialization effect, whereby women adopt a more masculine style the longer they stay in office, even after controlling for their speeches’ topics. The effect is strongest for women in socially progressive parties. This research highlights the role of parliaments as gendered workplaces, which still lead women to adapt to the male norm, and helps us understand the incentives that shape how women represent women in parliament. [R]
75.6046 CASTELLANI, Lorenzo —
This article examines Italy’s governing coalition in 2024. The analysis first explores how the coalition functions, focusing on the relationships between party leaders and the parties that make up the majority supporting the Meloni government. It then turns to European issues, both electoral and institutional, as well as key foreign-policy orientations. Next, it considers the internal dynamics and balance of power within the centre-right alliance in the context of regional elections. Finally, it analyses how the Government’s agenda — particularly regarding institutional reforms and major socio-economic policies — evolved as a result of political negotiations among centre-right forces during the Government’s second year in office. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6036]
75.6047 CAVAZZA, Nicoletta ; ROCCATO, Michele —
We conducted two studies to analyze the relations between dissatisfaction with experiences with the national healthcare system and trust in political (political parties and parliament), super partes (judiciary and police), and international (European Union [EU] and United Nations [UN]) institutions via the mediation of trust in the national healthcare system. Study 1 (longitudinal study on a quota sample of the Italian adult population, N = 689, surveyed in April 2021, T1, and in April 2022, T2) showed that dissatisfaction with experiences with the national healthcare system was negatively associated with trust in the national healthcare system, which, in turn, was positively associated with an increase in trust in political, super partes, and international institutions. Study 2 (between-participant experimental design, N = 285) showed that priming a negative versus a positive experience with the national healthcare system decreased trust in this system, which, in turn, was positively associated with trust in political, super partes, and international institutions. The strengths, limitations, and possible development of this research are discussed. [R]
75.6048 CELY, Tadeas —
Cultural polarization divides European public opinion on moral issues, from Italy’s refusal to register children of same-sex couples to abortion protests in Poland. These divisions stem from historical church-state conflicts in various religious cultures. This polarization is particularly strong in Catholic countries but less so in Protestant ones. Using data from 19 European democracies, I show a persistent gap between Catholic and Protestant countries. On the other hand, I show a limited effect of economic prosperity. Developed countries no longer lead in moral issue divisions, with recent surveys showing no or reversed differences. Younger generations are no less principled on moral issues in the Catholic contexts, with cohort differences in polarization even growing significantly between 2008 and 2017, highlighting the enduring impact of religious traditions among younger cohorts. [R]
75.6049 CHARM, Theodore ; LIN, Tse-min —
In recent decades, there has been a revival of contentious social movements worldwide. Given the collective action problem, what factors motivate ordinary citizens to join protests? If the issue of a protest matters, what factors motivate people to weigh different issues differently? This paper devises a unified theory of collective action and argues that individuals are more likely to join a protest when they perceive higher values of the public good, higher expressive benefits, higher expected turnouts, and lower costs of participation. It contends that the effects of those factors are moderated by individuals’ post-materialist values and confidence in future personal freedom. Employing an online conjoint survey experiment to analyze protest participation among citizens in Hong Kong, this paper finds that protesters are more driven by liberal-democratic issues than socioeconomic issues. [R, abr.]
75.6050 CHIRU, Mihail, et al. —
Increasingly, parties sponsor citizen legislative initiatives to raise the salience of issues they own, mobilize supporters, or attract new voters. While the literature focusing on this phenomenon frequently cites electoral motivations, evidence that such strategies result in electoral gains is lacking. Our case study explores this gap by focusing on a citizen legislative initiative sponsored by the Save Romania Union (USR), as part of their antiestablishment appeal. We leverage the assignment of signature collection points across the country to causally identify the electoral impact of this citizen initiative. Our matched difference-in-differences design corroborates the positive impact of the initiative on the party’s results at the 2019 European Parliament elections and the 2020 parliamentary elections and illustrates how this is likely driven by a mobilization effect. [R, abr.]
75.6051 CHO, Clare S. M. —
While both liberal and illiberal regimes have sought to respond to the issue of fake news, we know little about how the latter in particular respond to this development. It seems reasonable to expect that illiberal regimes may use the pretext of a fake news epidemic to clamp down on free speech, yet not all non-democratic states go down identical paths of digital censorship and repression. To explain this puzzle, I argue that the driving factor of an illiberal state’s response is the nature of its public sphere. I present a typology identifying the range and nature of fake news strategies, which classifies regime responses into two paths: an active regime response on the basis of confronting an anti-regime public sphere, or a passive regime response on the basis of encouraging the spread of pro-regime information among the public. At the end of both paths, the result is ultimately same: the forestalling of democratization. This typology is further explored using the cases of Singapore and the Philippines, to illuminate how the nature of the public sphere in each country determines the regime’s response to fake news. [R]
75.6052 CIOBANU, Costin ; SANDU, Dani —
Although affective polarization threatens democracies, little is known about how to reduce it among one of polarization’s main agents: party activists. The challenge stems from the difficulty of studying activists longitudinally and in a real-world setting. To address these issues, we study whether contact between activists acting as party delegates in the precincts on election day reduces polarization, compared to activists who have other election day responsibilities. We leverage a pre-registered study of party activists in a European democracy using a difference-indifferences framework. We employ an 8300-response three-wave panel of members of a new party, collected immediately before and after the 2020 Romanian general elections. We demonstrate that party activists are affectively polarized and are mostly polarized against the out-party elites and out-party itself. [R, abr.]
75.6053 CLAASSEN, Christopher, et al. —
Much of what we know about public support for democracy is based on survey questions about “democracy”. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring support for democracy. We develop a battery of 17 survey questions that cover all eight components of liberal democracy as defined by the V-Dem project. We then ask respondents from 19 national samples to evaluate these rights and institutions. We find considerable heterogeneity across countries in how our items cohere, especially in less developed contexts. Yet, those items that are more weakly connected with general support for liberal democracy tend to reveal the influence of political events and actors, arguably indicating weaknesses in political cultures. We further identify a concise subset of seven items that provide a reliable and valid measure of support for liberal democracy across our different samples. [R, abr.]
75.6703 COLE, Alistair ; STAFFORD, Ian ; HEINZ, Dominic —
Though the link between trust and transparency is a central concern of social science, the relationship between the two concepts has remained a ‘black box’. Many empirical studies concentrate solely on verifying whether transparency impacts trust and do not elaborate on the mechanisms that facilitate this relationship. Trust and transparency need to be qualified to be understood and captured in a meaningful sense by empirical research. Hence, the article proposes an interpretative matrix for exploring relationships between types of trust and transparency. It presents a framework of analysis that is sufficiently precise to make sense of complex interactions in six European regions in three European states (the UK, Germany, and France) and sufficiently generic to have a heuristic value as a tool for comparative study. It also contributes to broader discussions of the role of trust and transparency as factors of public management. The framework might equally be applied to evaluating trust and transparency as modes of public action in fields such as health or the environment. [R]
75.6054 COLL, Joseph A. —
Applying racial stereotypes and the racial threat framework to felon disenfranchisement support, this study argues white Americans who think Black Americans are more violent will be more supportive of felon disenfranchisement, and that this effect will be largest for white Republicans and white Americans who put greater importance in their racial identity. Analyses of the 2020 American National Election Study finds white Americans who think Black (white) Americans are more violent are more (less) supportive of felon disenfranchisement, with suggestive evidence these effects are more pronounced for white Republicans and white Americans holding greater racial importance. At the same time, the effects of violence stereotypes are consistently substantively small, amounting to less than one half of one level change in disenfranchisement support on a sevenpoint scale. [R, abr.]
75.6055 CONDON, Meghan ; WICHOWSKY, Amber —
Gender gaps in partisanship, vote choice, and opinion are well documented in the American electorate. In 2016, men’s and women’s subjective economic evaluations — of their own circumstances and the broader economy — also diverged considerably. We investigate the size, structure, and explanations of this gap. Drawing on cross-sectional and panel data, we show that the gap widened to historic levels following Trump’s election, driven by increased optimism among white men and decline among women of color. Though partisan and objective economic differences across race-gendered groups contribute, they do not fully explain the widening divide. We hypothesize that Trump’s election altered Americans’ understanding of the socioeconomic hierarchy, producing new divides in subjective status perceptions. Gendered and racialized divides in subjective perceptions combined with partisanship and economic circumstances to re-open the gender gap in economic attitudes. [R]
75.6056 CONDUTO, João ; DULANI, Boniface ; FISHER, Calum —
Post-‘third wave’ Africanist literature has focused on the highly elitist characteristics of political parties that compete for power in electoral contexts, and the tendency of party systems towards instability and fragmentation as elite manoeuvrings and factionalism translate into ‘fissions and fusions’ in the party system itself. This article considers the case of the People’s Party (PP) in Malawi, founded in 2011 by Vice President (and later President) Joyce Banda. It argues that the party’s emergence is, on one level, a clear story of elite factionalism and party fragmentation, and the product of structural factors in the Malawian political system. It goes on to argue, however, that a marked tendency in the political environment towards party fragmentation does not in itself explain how and why certain parties form, why some leaders emerge to lead these parties, and how some lower-level members of the elite respond to possible defection opportunities. This is, therefore, also a story and case of party formation, not mere fragmentation. We analyse this formation at two levels. First, at the uppermost level of Joyce Banda and her political journey over decades, her rise through the ranks to obtain the position of vice president and to become a credible party leader and, ultimately, President of Malawi. Second, we analyse party formation at the lower tier of the political elite by analysing MPs’ defection narratives in order to consider the motivations and understandings of those making an active decision to join the PP. We find that a desire to stay in government, unhappiness with one’s current position and genuine admiration for Joyce Banda as a politician and leader all played a role in decisions to join and form the PP at the lower elite level. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on “Are parliamentary elites in Africa also power elites? Researching the origins and consequences of varying elite configurations”. See also Abstr. 75.5908, 5910, 5914, 5925, 6254, 6259, 6265]
75.6057 CONTI, Nicolò ; MARANGONI, Francesco ; VERZICHELLI, Luca —
Attitudes towards the European Union (EU) have changed deeply in Italy: the level of support for EU membership has dramatically declined among Italian citizens and, especially after the 2018 elections, the Italian government has often been on a collision course with the EU. The article maps attitudes towards the EU in Italy, at the level of citizens, parties, and political elites. First, we provide a longitudinal analysis where we assess the scope of euroscepticism in this country. Second, we assess if recent changes in EU attitudes have been common to both elites and masses. Finally, we formulate some propositions with regard to the relationship between Italian democracy and the EU. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6303]
75.6058 CONTRERAS, Gonzalo —
What explains that programmatic parties may combine their policy offers with clientelistic dispensation? Prevailing knowledge suggests that parties top-down diversify linkages, targeting their program at wealthier voters while providing particularistic inducements to poorer ones. Yet, these frameworks fail to explain the variety of strategies used by politicians to link voters within the municipal context, where voters’ socioeconomic status and electoral competition are less likely to vary. I argue that programmatic parties may engage in clientelism at the municipal level when they receive bottom-up demands. Leveraging evidence from 97 in-depth interviews conducted during multiyear fieldwork in three Chilean municipalities, this article shows why and how programmatic parties outsource the cost of clientelism to neighbourhood associations in exchange for targeted distribution to solve the groups’ demands. By showing that clientelism in programmatic-oriented settings is demand-driven, the article draws attention to territorially-rooted local groups as key actors that help to explain the variety of strategies parties use to link with voters. [R]
75.6059 CROSS, William P. —
This paper finds that a background in competitive, organised sports is common among those active in electoral politics. Unique data collected through surveys of federal election candidates and local party association presidents together with the examination of candidate and MP biographies establish that many have a sporting background. This sporting experience offers the opportunity for individuals to acquire skills beneficial to political candidacy and makes them more attractive to party gatekeepers. This paper then connects this, and the significantly lower sports participation rates among women/girls, to their consistent under-representation in the pool of election candidates presented by Canada’s political parties and at every level of our elected legislatures. Women/girls participate in sports at significantly lower levels than men/boys. Men thus benefit disproportionately from both the personal skills developed through sports that lead to formal political participation and the local notoriety desired by party candidate search committees that sports participation offers. [R]
75.6060 DAGI, Ihsan —
Turkey’s local elections of 2024 exposed the vulnerabilities of the ruling AKP and highlighted the electoral potential of the opposition CHP. The results provided the CHP motivation and momentum while calling into question the AKP’s position as a dominant party. Analyzing the outcome and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the incumbent and the opposition, this article examines the implications of the election results for Turkey’s political trajectory including the likelihood of exiting its competitive authoritarian cycle. Its analysis is grounded in the competitive authoritarian setting of the current regime without attempting to theorize or generalize post-election political developments. [R]
75.6061 DAXECKER, Ursula ; FJELDE, Hanne ; PRASAD, Neeraj —
Much research examines citizens’ beliefs in misinformation and whether these beliefs can be corrected, but we know far less about how misinformation impacts social attitudes. We propose that misinformation can induce affective shifts that increase out-group animosity and fuel polarization. Politicians amplify these effects by embedding misinformation into larger narratives of threat from out-groups. We conduct a preregistered vignette experiment following the 2021 elections in West Bengal, India, exposing respondents to a misinformation message that invokes salient identity cleavages. We randomize whether citizens are asked about intergroup attitudes before or after exposure to misinformation and find that treated respondents report more hostile out-group attitudes. Corrective information fails to mitigate these negative effects, suggesting that the effects of misinformation may not operate through citizens’ factual beliefs. Our study shows that misinformation itself can exacerbate social cleavages. [R, abr.]
75.6062 DEGANI, Paola —
The feminicide of Giulia Cecchettin in November 2023 significantly heightened public awareness of male violence against women, this thanks to intense media coverage and the advocacy of her family, which helped spark widespread political mobilization. This movement extended across universities, schools, workplaces, and public spaces throughout Italy. The article examines the most politically significant events related to femini-cides in 2024 and the broader phenomenon of gender-based violence against women. It analyses feminicide data in Italy, explores the mobilization following Cecchettin’s murder, and considers the evolution of the issue over time. Finally, it assesses the Government’s policy response, which has been exclusively punitive — an approach that, by failing to acknowledge the structural, endemic and historical nature of genderbased violence, risks proving ineffective. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6036]
75.6063 DEGLOW, Annekatrin ; FJELDE, Hanne —
Across the world, many citizens go to the polls amidst armed threats from both state and non-state actors. How do militarized elections affect citizens’ willingness to accept restrictions on democratic rights? We argue that when forming opinions about appropriate limits to state powers, citizens navigate competing threats from state and non-state actors. The display of state coercive force should make citizens more protective of civil and political rights. Yet, if it occurs in the context of threat posed by nonstate actors, citizens may become more likely to accept that rights are restricted. We embed a vignette experiment with a selective information prime in a 2019 post-election survey of 1,080 Indian citizens across two states affected by armed insurgency. We find that being primed on a heavy state-military presence makes citizens more reluctant to accept restrictions on civil and political rights, but the effect is only found among politically marginalized groups. In the presence of violent non-state threats, however, citizens become more likely to support policies that curtail democratic rights. [R]
75.6064 DENISENKO, Anna —
This article presents a game-theoretic model to analyze a hybrid form of governance, combining competitive local elections with the central government’s unilateral power to intervene and replace elected officials. The equilibrium analysis highlights the implications of the central government’s trade-off between local officials’ competence and their partisan affiliation. I show that the key consequences of this trade-off include (1) strategic retentions of underperforming opposition incumbents and (2) replacements of pro-regime incumbents, even when their expected competence exceeds that of their electoral replacements. I demonstrate, then, that this institutional framework induces a higher proportion of replaced opposition officials compared to copartisans of the regime and encourages the population to electorally support candidates affiliated with the central government party in prior open-seat elections. [R, abr.]
75.6065 DIAS, Nicholas C. ; DRUCKMAN, James N. ; LEVENDUSKY, Matthew S. —
There is a growing belief that many Americans shun, ostracize, or “cancel” those they dislike or those who make disagreeable statements. Yet, no empirical work has explored the prevalence or motives of this type of sanctioning or how Americans perceive it. Using a nationally representative survey with an embedded conjoint experiment, we find that Americans vastly overestimate how likely other people — especially out-partisans — are to cancel others. Nevertheless, they accurately perceive what motivates others to cancel: disagreeable and offensive statements, not disliked speakers. Additionally, we find that Democrats and Republicans are similarly motivated to cancel, although canceling behavior out in the world may more commonly come from Democrats. Our findings highlight how “cancel culture” could limit harmful speech but encourage self-censorship and partisan animus. They also reveal the normative fault lines underlying debates about free speech in contemporary society. [R]
75.6066 DICKSON, Zachary P. ; HOBOLT, Sara B. —
Political parties often mobilise issues that can improve their electoral fortunes by splitting existing coalitions. We argue that by adopting a distinctively adversarial stance, radical right-wing parties have increasingly politicised climate change policies as a wedge issue. This strategy challenges the mainstream party consensus and seeks to mobilise voter concerns over green initiatives. Relying on state-of-the-art multilingual large language models, we empirically examine nearly half a million press releases from 76 political parties across nine European democracies to support this argument. Our findings demonstrate that the radical right’s oppositional climate policy rhetoric diverges significantly from the mainstream consensus. Survey data further reveal climate policy scepticism among voters across the political spectrum, highlighting the mobilising potential of climate policies as a wedge issue. This research advances our understanding of issue competition and the politicisation of climate change. [R]
75.6067 DOHERTY, David ; GARBARSKI, Dana ; SHAPSIS, Sasha —
The potential for “not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY) sentiments to shape public attitudes is well-documented. However, to date, research on NIMBYism has focused on attitudes about building substantial infrastructure that may undermine property values (e.g., wind turbines; affordable housing) and the opening of facilities like homeless shelters or drug rehabilitation centers that residents may fear will attract unsavory clientele to their neighborhood. Here we demonstrate that NIMBY considerations can also shape attitudes about a “hot button” social issue that is typically not thought of in NIMBY terms: abortion policy. We show that residents of an urban area adjacent to states that recently imposed restrictive abortion policies are less supportive of facilitating abortion access for out-of-state patients when those services would be provided in their own neighborhood, as opposed to in their state. [R]
75.6068 DOMÍNGUEZ, Jorge I. —
May elections change a communist regime? From the rulers’ perspective, mobilization should ensure high voter turnout and support to signal invincibility; high-visibility better-known national and provincial candidates should outperform local candidates; voters should believe that the government will improve the economy; generals-as-candidates should receive strong support. These are official reasons to persuade voters. The official leadership and media convey this perspective relentlessly. It worked for Cuba’s 2018 but not for its 2023 election. Building on elections and regimes scholarship, this article analyses those two noncompetitive parliamentary elections, where only one party was lawful, and the number of candidates equalled the number of seats. The law clustered candidates in multimember districts; all won, but voters could cast nonconforming votes (blank, null, or selective). Between 2018 and 2023, turnout fell, nonconforming votes spiked, and electoral disaffection nationalized. Reported votes dropped significantly for generals, provincial governors, and provincial communist-party first-secretaries. Ministers associated with economic reforms performed better than other ministers, while Political Bureau leaders held their vote shares. Cuba inched toward democratization, through reform but not rupture. [R]
75.6069 DORIA VILAÇA, Luiz ; MORUCCI, Marco ; PANIAGUA, Victoria —
Are corruption trials that involve the highest ranks in the public sphere and large private companies biased against some groups? Existing research predominantly focuses on corruption prosecutions of politicians, leaving unresolved the extent to which judges apply differential treatment when convicting and sentencing the political class compared to other defendants, including those in the private sector. To address this gap, we investigate judicial bias within Brazil’s famous “Operação Lava Jato,” the largest corruption investigation carried out in history. Leveraging an original database that traces the trajectory of the universe of the 3154 cases of Lava Jato, we show that judges’ sentencing decisions were not governed by a partisan logic. Instead, judges were more inclined to impose longer prison times and higher fines to elected politicians when compared to all other defendants, particularly those from the private sector. We interpret these findings as evidence of antipolitical class bias. [R]
75.6070 DORRINGTON, Georgia ; SCHULZ-HERZENBERG, Collette —
This study investigates three key determinants of social trust to explain South Africa’s social trust deficit: income inequality, confidence in institutions, and racial diversity. Despite the country’s racially heterogenous society and segregated history, racial diversity arguments overlook alternative theories on the determinants of low social trust. We instead argue that the decline in social trust in South Africa can be explained by worsening levels of income inequality and declines in institutional trust in recent decades. Using the 2019 South African Reconciliation Barometer citizen survey data, the empirical analysis confirms that South Africans’ confidence in institutions and their subjective perceptions of income distribution (or income inequality) have the strongest influence on social trust levels while racial diversity has a negligible effect. This is encouraging for a country with South Africa’s racial diversity and troubled history. Instead, efforts to address South Africa’s social trust deficit should focus on increasing citizens’ confidence in institutions and addressing the high levels of income inequality. However, given the dire state of institutional confidence and income inequality in the country, it remains unlikely that these conditions will improve in the short term. [R]
75.6071 DOSTAL, Jörg Michael —
Between 1998 and 2024, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) was in government for twenty-three out of twenty-seven years — either as the senior partner in a coalition (from 1998 to 2005 with the Greens and from 2021 to 2024 with the Greens and liberals (FDP)) or as the junior partner in a coalition with the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) from 2005 to 2009 and from 2013 to 2021. The party’s overall electoral performance during this period has been devastatingly poor, with its vote share declining from 40.9 per cent in 1998 to 16.4 per cent in 2025. This almost steady decline is due to its failure to devise a strategic response to neoliberalism. As a result, the SPD’s former electoral coalition disintegrated — blue-collar voters turned to the Alternative for Germany (AfD), while centrist voters abandoned the SPD for the CDU/CSU or the Greens. In 2025, the SPD also lost many voters to the Left Party and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). The party’s long-term track record of participating in coalition governments without delivering progressive reforms suggests that another coalition government with the CDU/CSU after the 2025 federal election is likely to undermine the SPD’s political standing further. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6289]
75.6072 DOTEN-SNITKER, Kerice —
What social processes guide the spread of ethnic or racial exclusion? I investigate the diffusion of medieval expulsions of Jews among over 500 polities in the western Holy Roman Empire, 1385-1520 CE. For medieval governors, religious and material concerns were strong rationales against expulsion. Yet expulsions increase markedly in the 15th century. Did an expulsion by one government affect another government’s choices about expulsion? I appraise three common theories of policy diffusion: learning, social reinterpretation, and social structural and resource constraints. Statistical models provide evidence only for the latter two. While theological changes gave expulsion fresh political value, the adoption of expulsion followed political and economic incentives that were embedded in intercity relationships of power and dependency. The results indicate that social influence, especially spatial proximity, cannot be assumed to accelerate ethnoracial extremism. [R]
75.6073 DOWLING, Conor M. ; MILLER, Michael G. ; MORRIS, Kevin T. —
We provide the first examination of the extent to which voters cast ballots for copartisan candidates in nonpartisan elections using cast vote record (CVR) data. These records permit direct observation of whether demonstrably partisan voters vote for copartisan candidates at the same rate in partisan and nonpartisan local elections. We find that voters classified as partisan based on their vote choices in federal/state elections cast ballots for candidates — whose partisanship we ascertain based on their primary election voting records — from the opposing party at higher rates in nonpartisan compared to partisan elections. We also find that partisan voters appear to respond to the race and gender of the candidates, but those heuristics do not always line up in the predicted partisan manner for voters. [R, abr.]
75.6074 DOWNIE, David L. —
Many institutions have called for increasing the number of women in leadership positions in global environmental politics (GEP). Little information exists, however, regarding gender distributions in such positions. This brief report begins filling in elements of our collective data gap. Men currently lead 80 percent of the fifteen global intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) that are particularly important to GEP and have held 90 percent of these positions in the past. Men currently lead 70 percent of national environmental ministries and have held approximately 78 percent of those positions. Equal numbers of men and women currently lead the twenty most prominent environmental treaty secretariats, although men have held more than 70 percent of these positions in the past. During the 21st c., men received 69 percent of the appointments to lead the IGOs and treaty secretariats most important to GEP. [R, abr.]
75.6075 DROOGAN, Julian ; IQBAL, Khuram ; BUKHARI, Syed Adnan —
In recent years, the United Nations (UN) designated terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a group with links to the Pakistani security establishment, has been pursuing a strategy of political transition. This paper explores whether existing counter-terrorism frameworks such as the UNled disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) and state-led de-radicalization and disengagement programs adequately explain the transition of terrorist organizations into the political arena. It is argued that a lack of organizational consensus, the failure to evolve an ideological consensus for renouncing violence and endorsing democracy, and unpromising domestic and international political environments are the strongest predictors of difficulties in achieving successful transformation. [R]
75.6076 DRUEZ, Élodie —
While racial minorities in most Western countries tend to support left-leaning parties, their attitudes towards right-wing parties have not been extensively studied. This article examines how the French and British Black African middle class view the main right-wing parties: the Republicans in France and the Conservatives in the UK. It reveals that, while a majority of respondents from both countries are left-leaning and therefore opposed to right-wing parties, the underlying reasons for this opposition differ between the two national contexts and are influenced by the specific agendas espoused by the parties. In France, left-wing respondents dismiss the Republicans as they feel significantly stigmatised by their rhetoric. In contrast, left-wing respondents in the UK more frequently attribute their rejection of the Conservatives to socioeconomic issues. Among the minority of participants with right-leaning views, national differences remain: French respondents lacked a definitive right-wing stance and were reluctant to support the Republicans, whereas British respondents expressed a more distinct right-wing position and did vote for the Conservatives. [R]
75.6077 DRYZEK, John S. ; NIEMEYER, Simon J. —
Epistemic injustice means that knowledge relevant to collective decisions gets discounted, thus inflicting harm on disadvantaged groups. The most familiar kinds (established by Fricker 2007) are testimonial (dismissing arguments because of the social characteristics of the speaker) and hermeneutical (lack of collective interpretive resources to make sense of oppression). We develop the idea of expressive epistemic justice, which exists when social forces induce a systematic failure for an individual or group’s values and beliefs to be reflected in what the individual or group expresses as its wants. Expressive epistemic injustice can persist even if testimonial and hermeneutic injustice were to be eliminated. The degree of failure can be quantified, enabling us in an empirical analysis of multiple cases to locate the source of expressive epistemic injustice. [R, abr.]
75.6078 DUNCAN, Grant —
New Zealand’s former prime minister Jacinda Ardern has been an inspiration to the left. As leader of a coalition government formed in 2017, she gave hope to social democrats and women. Her compassionate leadership was widely praised, while her scientifically robust approach to the Covid-19 pandemic was exemplary. New Zealand Labour was rewarded at the ballot box in 2020 with a single-party majority. Ardern stepped down mid-term as prime minister in January 2023, however, and Labour was heavily defeated in the subsequent election. What drove Labour from unprecedented success to humiliation? An effective pandemic response had been both the making and the breaking of Ardern’s prime ministership. Labour hadn’t anticipated a political backlash against lockdown and vaccine-mandate policies and it introduced social and administrative reforms that lacked wide public support. Some political lessons can be drawn from Ardern’s career. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6289]
75.6079 EICHHORN, Kristin ; LINHART, Eric —
Competitiveness in electoral authoritarian regimes is compromised by management of the electoral arena through various kinds of manipulation. This study links two dimensions of competitiveness, namely fairness and contestation. We analyze the regional heterogeneity of both dimensions for Russian gubernatorial elections held between 2012 and 2019. To assess competitiveness, we use crowd-sourced electoral observation reports and data from the Central Election Commission. Our analysis reveals significant regional variation in both dimensions. Nevertheless, opposition victories are rare and only occur in exceptional cases. Low levels of electoral malpractices seem to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for close election results. Windows of opportunity for the opposition arise only if the regime misperceives the closeness of the race and if the opposition nominates prominent candidates. Overall, these findings shed light on the complex factors influencing the competitiveness of elections in electoral authoritarian regimes like Russia. [R]
75.6080 ELLGER, Fabio ; KLÜVER, Heike —
Radical right parties (RRPs) have gained representation in parliaments across Europe, but little is known about their impact on government policy. Even though RRPs tend to end up in opposition, they have considerable influence on policy making within coalition governments. One expectation is that coalition governments are tough on immigration to optimise voter support when being exposed to right-wing parties in parliament. Coalition negotiations temporarily reduce accountability and allow cabinets to adjust policy positions without bearing the costs associated with opportunistic behaviour. This argument is tested using novel data on pre-electoral policy positions and post-electoral immigration policies for coalition cabinets in 24 European democracies from 1980 to 2015. The findings reveal that governments shift to more restrictive immigration policies in face of RRPs. This article expands on prior research on the influence of the radical right by demonstrating its direct influence on coalition governments’ joint immigration policy plans. [R]
75.6081 EMANUELE, Vincenzo ; GARZIA, Diego —
The 2024 European elections in Italy were a crucial test both for the ruling centre-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni, and for the centre-left opposition, striving to establish an alternative bloc. Amid growing political disengagement, with abstention surpassing 50% for the first time, the elections saw gains for Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) and the Democratic Party (PD) alongside the Green-Left Alliance (AVS). Conversely, the Five Star Movement (M5s) hit an historic low, and the centrist parties failed to secure representation in Brussels. The aim of this article is to examine these elections, and it does so by combining different analytical perspectives and empirical analyses. In particular, the article focuses on the voting context, considering the elections’ characteristic as second-order contests, the electoral rules, and the political line-ups among which voters were called upon to choose. And it considers the results, both at the aggregate level (considering turnout, party performance and territorial dynamics, vote flows) and the individual-level (considering the determinants of turnout, party choices, and the individual motives behind them). [R] [See Abstr. 75.6036]
75.6082 ERHARDT, Julian —
Research frequently contends that support for democracy is a comparatively stable attitude. A previously neglected explanation for this finding is that regime preferences rest on deeply rooted psychological foundations. This article develops theoretical arguments about how the big five personality traits relate to democratic regime preferences in consolidated democracies, and presents empirical evidence using original survey data for six Western European countries. The results show that democratic regime support is substantively higher for more open, conscientious and agreeable individuals, but slightly lower for more extraverted and neurotic individuals. In addition, it highlights that it is important not to conflate support for democracy with authoritarianism, which the previous literature has frequently turned to for personality roots of anti-democratic sentiments. [R, abr.]
75.6083 ERISEN, Cengiz ; UYSAL, Duygu Merve —
Scholarly research on emotions tackles various domains, among which opposition to immigration ranks as socially and politically critical. While earlier literature captures distinct aspects of this domain, certain emotions are less studied than others, primarily compassion. By focusing on the unique role of compassion in comparison with anger and anxiety, we tackle how and under which conditions compassion changes social distancing and political preferences regarding refugees. Drawing on representative data collected in Turkey — the country with the highest number of Syrian refugees — we test whether feelings of compassion toward refugees can hold back the escalation in opposition to immigration as a result of heightened threat. Our results show that compassion functions as the key to lowering the negative effects of perceived threat in shaping refugees social and political integration. [R]
75.6084 ERLICH, Aaron ; GANS-MORSE, Jordan ; NICHTER, Simeon —
Corruption often persists not only because public officials take bribes, but also because many citizens are willing to pay them. Yet even in countries with endemic corruption, few people always pay bribes. Why do citizens bribe in some situations but not in others? Integrating insights from both principal-agent and collective action approaches to the study of corruption, we develop and empirically evaluate an analytical framework for understanding selective bribery. Our framework reveals how citizens’ motivations, costs, and risks influence their willingness to engage in corruption. A conjoint experiment conducted in Ukraine in 2020 predominantly corroborates our pre-registered predictions. By shedding light on conditions that dampen citizens’ readiness to pay bribes, our findings offer insights into the types of institutional reforms that may reduce corruption and ultimately help countries to escape self-reinforcing corruption cycles. [R]
75.6085 EYRE, Guy Robert —
Why do Islamic Salafi actors — one of the most influential contemporary Islamic ideologies — decide to maintain or modulate their long-standing disavowal of democracy, electoral institutional and oppositional politics, and (Islamist) political parties as “un-Islamic”? Scholarship emphasizes institutional openings in driving Islamic social movements to support electoral institutional politics (“moderation”). Typically through single-country studies, scholarship on Salafis in the Arab world specifically argues that, following the “Arab Uprisings,” large political openings driven by revolutionary protests and regime change (Egypt, Tunisia) pushed Salafis to support democratic and oppositional politics. Nevertheless, via crosscountry comparative study this paper argues that, despite regime survival and limited, non-revolutionary protests in Algeria and Morocco in 2011, only Moroccan Salafis began to support democratic institutional and oppositional politics, and only sought full participation in elections from 2013. Accordingly, the paper argues that only the Salafi pursuit of organizational survival, understood in light of individual Salafis’ subjective readings of political opportunity structures and their experiences of discrete histories of state repression and co-optation, can fully explain the divergent trajectories of Salafism in both countries since 2011. [R]
75.6086 FAINSTEIN, Susan ; NOVY, Johannes —
This article examines the effects of right-wing populism (RWP) on urban planning from the perspective of the concept of the “just city” with its three attendant criteria — democracy, diversity and equity — along with a commitment to combating climate change. First, we discuss the significance and impact of RWP for planning at the level of metro areas, its difference from left-wing populism, and its implications for democratic theory. Next, we provide some brief illustrative examples from the U.S. and Germany of how the rise of RWP affects the attainment of values of equity, democracy and diversity, and examine who is involved. We then consider some explanations put forward for the current upsurge in RWP and examine the extent to which they help to make sense of developments affecting planning at the local level. Finally, we examine the possibilities — and limitations — of engaging with the right-wing populist movement within different paradigms of planning theory. [R]
75.6087 FARRELL, Sam —
The distribution of cash, resources and campaign materials is a characteristic feature of elections in Malawi and across Africa. Scholars, commentators and international bodies often describe these practices as a type of clientelism, patronage or ‘vote buying’ that corrupts the ethical integrity of the relationship between democratic representatives and the electorate by introducing a transactional logic into the formation of political relationships. Drawing on long-term ethnographic research in a rural constituency in Malawi’s Central Region, this article examines the significance of distributary practices in the 2019 parliamentary elections. It argues that distributary practices should be understood as an attempt by parliamentary candidates to establish the moral grounds of a distinctly democratic relationship with constituents in the context of socio-economic inequality and limited state resources. The article highlights two important ways that distributive practices, informed by an ethic prevalent in the broader social life of constituents, enabled political relationships to be formed on robust moral, democratic grounds. First, distribution can be understood as an enactment of a type of virtue associated with the capacity to assist others that I refer to as ‘virtuous capacity’, entailed in the demands and expectations of being a Member of Parliament. Second, these practices can be seen as an expression of a non-reciprocal moral obligation associated with a democratic mandate to serve constituents. Rather than undermining the ethical integrity of the relationship between candidates and constituents, distributary practices have enabled moral democratic relationships to be formed that might otherwise be difficult to establish. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6745]
75.6088 FENG, Qinya —
Education is widely believed to predict attitudes toward immigration, but what causal relationship underlies this descriptive pattern? This research employs three distinct natural experiments and considers genetic factors to triangulate this relationship: Study 1 analyses discordant monozygotic twins; Study 2 assesses the impact of a Swedish education reform; and Study 3 analyses dizygotic twins with the use of a polygenic index for education, a DNA-based measure for genetic predispositions toward education. The results indicate that education does modestly promote open views toward immigration (Study 1), yet the reform’s effect remains uncertain (Study 2). Study 3 offers direct evidence of the effects of genetic predispositions and suggests that genetics related to education may influence attitudes beyond achieved educational attainment. These findings confirm the positive impact of education while pointing to the combined influence of genetic and social pathways in shaping immigration attitudes. [R]
75.6089 FIELD, Luke ; ÓMARSDÓTTIR, Silja Bára —
‘The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.’ Social liberals have often taken Martin Luther King Jr’s words as a prophecy for their political goals, and until recently, it seemed to hold true for reproductive rights and access to abortion: public opinion data show a general international trend towards more liberal views over the past 40 years. However, a recent conservative backlash against these rights has seen attempts to limit abortion access in countries as diverse as the United States, Poland, and Malta. In this paper, we focus on trends of public opinion in two countries where the trend of liberalising abortion laws and attitudes has continued — Ireland and Iceland — and compare them against an example of a backlash case (Poland). Using data from the European Values Study and exit poll data from the 2018 Irish abortion referendum, we present evidence that attitudes towards abortion in both Ireland and Iceland have liberalised significantly compared to the global average, but find no evidence of specific shifts underway within these publics compared to those in Poland. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6704]
75.6090 FINE, Jeffrey A., et al. —
Research demonstrates that negative messages spread more online, both at the elite and mass levels. We know comparatively less about the role that policy content plays, and whether that might be responsible for the effect of negativity. We examine over 1.4 million congressional tweets to test the effect of message tone and topic on the number of retweets that messages receive. We find that elite messages are retweeted more when they contain political attacks. However, even while controlling for tone, we find that messages are shared more when they discuss some “culture war” issues or when they discuss Donald Trump. [R]
75.6091 FISHER, Calum —
Few aspects of contemporary Malawi are seen to be more steeped in failure — above all moral failure — as politics and politicians. As a class of actors, politicians are cast in an exceptionally negative light in popular discourse and commentary, blamed for having thwarted the promise and hope of democratisation in ruthless pursuit of their own selfish ends. Much of the academic analysis of post-transition Malawi takes a similar view. This reflects long-standing peculiarities in the Africanist literature more broadly, which have led to a markedly materialist-instrumentalist understanding of African political praxis and African politicians. Opposing this approach, this article takes an interpretivist perspective, arguing that scholars ought to take Members of Parliament’s (MPs’) own narratives, including their narratives about their motivations in politics, seriously. Based on extensive fieldwork and interviews with MPs, it offers an analysis of MPs’ motivations and the meanings inscribed in their work that are rooted in these narratives. It finds that the attractions of money, power and personal status are real, but so too are MPs’ feelings of moral obligation to, and shared belonging with, their home areas and wider constituencies. Indeed, they are typically ‘called’ into politics by representatives of those communities and motivated to heed such calls at least partly because of a sense of obligation and commitment. Representing ‘home’ is central to MPs’ ideas and ideals of public or community service; and that ethic of service is reinforced by their sense that they have something valuable to contribute to their communities – informed in some cases by a family lineage in local politics. Ultimately, the article suggests that we cannot adequately understand Malawian MPs’ political praxis, or the workings of Malawi’s state and democracy overall, if we do not attempt to understand or to properly take into account the motivations and meanings undergirding their behaviour. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6745]
75.6092 FISHMAN, Robert M. —
Do demonstrations tend to deepen or endanger democracy? I examine this theme of major debate between scholars and among political actors, analyzing how the US and other democracies have dealt with — and been shaped by — popular pressure on representative institutions. Cases that are discussed include Martin Luther King’s 1963 March on Washington and the January 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol, as well as examples drawn from Spain, Portugal, and Italy. I offer clear principles to differentiate between types of protest that deepen democracy, advance the goal of inclusion, and others that endanger democratic principles. Among the issues I take up is whether the location of protest is decisive. My argument instead emphasizes the difference between protests intended to influence policymaking or the political agenda and those that use intimidation or violence to replace the primacy of elections in selecting office holders. [R, abr.]
75.6093 FLINDERS, Matthew —
This article argues that it is possible to identify a ‘new’ politics of public inquiries. A sizable seam of scholarship and parliamentary discussion has for at least a century bemoaned the limited independence of public inquiries. The ‘old’ politics of public inquiries has traditionally been defined by a largely internalised and administrative focus on the capacity of ministers to control the terms of reference, appoint the chair, control the resource framework, deflect findings and ignore recommendations, etc. The great value of the September 2024 report by the Statutory Inquiries Committee in the House of Lords is that a bridge can be seen to be built between the ‘old’ politics of public inquiries and a ‘new’ politics which emphasises ‘range and variation’ in the design of inquiry processes, and defines social healing and collective catharsis as core inquiry functions alongside the traditional roles of blame allocation and policy learning. [R]
75.6094 FLOM, Hernán —
Most analyses of the intersection of police, politics, and violence — which center on the police’s use of force as a means to control subordinate classes, repress political dissidents, or confront non-state armed actors — conceptualize the police as an instrument of political incumbents. In this paper, I problematize the relationship between the police and its political principals by focusing on how police administer violence as a political response in compliance or defiance of political incumbents. While elected officials may enact policy changes that restrain or incite police violence, police forces can either abide with or disregard these directives. Building on this interaction of policy shifts and police responses, I develop a typology of four variants of police administration of violence: peacekeeping, punishing, shirking, and sabotaging. I illustrate this typology with various examples from developed and developing democracies. [R]
75.5783 FORAN, Aoife-Marie, et al. —
While political apologies cannot undo what has been done, they are often perceived as highly relevant for healing and reconciliation. However, these apologies are often mired in controversy and highly political. While research on political apologies has focused on the role of intergroup relations, limited research has explored the intragroup dynamics involved. The present article explores how the paradoxical features of a political apology to ingroup members have their source in partisanship. The analysis used methods derived from discursive psychology. Using data from six parliamentary statements that were given in response to the political apology offered to Irish mother and baby home survivors, we demonstrated how these speakers constructed and understood the apology and how these constructions relate to their own political positions. Specifically, the apology to mothers and babies is used for political purpose, allowing majority members of government to position the wrongdoings experienced by mothers and babies in the past and to encourage the national collective to move on. Others seeking progressive social change — a parliamentary minority — use the apology to shape a political narrative that demands national collective action. Our work highlights the important role that identity-based power relations play in confronting historical injustice, and how this may result in a dual schism with people within a nation becoming divided over both the apology and the appropriate response. [R]
75.6095 FRAMPTON, Martyn —
The emergence of the political party Sinn Féin as an electoral force, and its gradual displacement of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) as the primary vehicle for Provisional Irish republicanism, was an indispensable precondition for the peace process that brought an end to the long-running Northern Irish ‘Troubles’. Unsurprisingly, this process has been a subject of close academic scrutiny, with much attention focusing on the dramatic, early breakthroughs made by Sinn Féin, particularly in the years 1981-1983. By contrast, the mid-to-late 1980s are often represented as something of a fallow period for the party, when its initial, seemingly meteoric rise stalled. Within this narrative, the 1985 local elections are typically passed over relatively quickly. Yet this article makes the case for revisiting those elections, seeing them as marking a somewhat under-appreciated political earthquake in Northern Ireland. It does so on the basis that first, the elections laid bare the ambiguities and tensions arising from the Irish republican movement’s ‘Armalite and Ballot box’ strategy. And second, the consequences of the 1985 elections proved decisive in reshaping both Irish republicanism and the wider political landscape of Northern Ireland. [R]
75.6388 FRECH, Elena —
The European Parliament (EP), often seen as relatively women-friendly, still struggles with underrepresentation of women in leadership roles, such as committee chairs This article scrutinizes individual career factors leading German Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to Strasbourg and into leadership positions within the EP. It focuses on examining disparities between men and women and compares women with, and without, leadership experience in the various parliamentary offices. The study explores how individual qualifications, such as political experience and education, alongside personal factors like marital status and parental responsibilities, correlate with women’s leadership roles in the EP. Using a dataset of all German MEPs from 1999 to 2019, the analysis finds higher representation of women in leadership roles than their overall presence in the EP, though disparities exist across office types and political affiliations. The findings reveal two main challenges for German women in the EP: a motherhood penalty and barriers to leadership. On average, women MEPs have fewer children than their male counterparts, and those in leadership are more likely to be unmarried. The data also highlight occupational gender segregation and comparable political experience between men and women. [R] [See Abstr. 75.5932]
75.6096 FROIO, Caterina ; ROMERO-VIDAL, Xavier —
This article takes the Yellow Vests (YVs, Gilets Jaunes) movement as a case in point to study the mechanisms by which social media can enhance protest participation. Building on the literature on social media and protest behaviour, we study the association between different political experiences on social media and protest engagement. We rely on novel survey data from the project YELLOWPOL collected in France in 2019 during a period characterised by the mobilisation of the YVs. We find that individuals’ experiences on social media play a role in connecting general social media use with their participation in protests. Specifically, we show that simply using social media cannot predict protest behaviour, but seeking content from the accounts of decision-makers and activists and using social media to express opinions contributes to protest participation. [R, abr.]
75.6097 FULTON, Sarah A., et al. —
Does having a daughter alter candidate evaluations and political attitudes? Some research provides evidence of a daughter effect, whereas others report null effects. In a pre-registered plan, we hypothesized that parents of daughters would hold more liberal policy attitudes toward gender-specific issues, particularly among men and Republicans. However, in contrast to previous research, we hypothesized null effects of having a daughter on more stable political orientations such as party identification. We test our expectations using multiple data sources to study the 2016 election — one in which issues of gender equality, harassment, and representation played out. Our expectations regarding the absence of a daughter effect are borne out for political orientations. In addition, we also found few and inconsistent daughter effects on gender-specific attitudes, suggesting that having a daughter is unlikely to engender egalitarian gender attitudes. A follow-up study from the 2020 presidential election produced similar results. [R]
75.6098 GARCIA AGUSTÍN, Óscar ; COSSARINI, Paolo —
While the division between the people and the elite created by populism is typically understood within a national framework, the aim of this article is to analyse how the understanding of the people and the elite is constructed by the use of interwoven scales. By focusing on the scalar politics of the Spanish party Vox, the discursive articulation of space through scales are analysed. By means of a qualitative discourse analysis of six Twitter (now X) accounts of the most prominent leaders, we argue that the use of political spaces is strictly connected to the party’s broader political narrative. Concretely, the analysis of the spatial imaginaries evoked by Vox on Twitter shows the importance of different scales — local, regional, national and global — to organize its populist antagonism spatially. In so doing, this paper makes a contribution to the literature on ‘scalar politics’ of radical right parties, which has recently focused on different geographical constituencies. We argue that the national scale maintains its predominance in opposition to the global scale (dominated by the cosmopolitan elites), the regional one (where separatism represents a threat against Spain’s unity), the local scale which is nationalized against migrants and people who do not feel as Spaniards. [R]
75.6099 GARCÍA FERRÉS, Eva A., et al. —
A central aspect of political conservatism is the notion that the system is fair. Political conservatives tend to defend the system more than do liberals. Here we test whether the link between political orientation and this system justification tendency depends on the comparisons people make across time. Across five studies, we found that the typically observed link between conservative (vs. liberal) political orientation and system justification is only observed when no temporal comparisons are made, or when the status quo is compared to a future alternative. However, this association is not observed when the status quo is compared to the past. Instead, when comparing the present to the past, the link between political orientation and system justification was blocked (Studies 1, 2, and 4) or even reversed (Study 3). Theoretically, these results connect the system justification literature to literature on temporal comparison and suggest that system justification is meaningfully influenced by comparisons processes. [R]
75.6100 GARRETT, Jacob ; OTTONELLI, Valeria —
While the political competence of ordinary citizens is usually assessed through one-time measurements of their epistemic or moral judgment, this study contributes a new way of thinking about political competence as context- and experience-based. We theorize citizen competence from a grounded perspective, based on an 18-month ethnographic study of ordinary citizens who held two-year positions on school community councils. We find that when given ongoing decision-making power in a public institution, ordinary citizens often exhibit a form of political competence, including abilities to perceive complex political dynamics, adapt to the interests of others, and coordinate with fellow citizens. [We] first, theoretically reconstruct this competence as a form of political prudence democratically inflected by the lived experience of ordinary citizens. Second, [we] demonstrate empirically how citizens enact democratic prudence in the everyday practice of a local governing institution. [R]
75.6101 GARRITZMANN, Susanne ; WEHL, Nadja —
Education is one of the strongest predictors of political participation at the individual level. However, the association between education and participation varies across countries, which previous studies attribute mainly to institutions like electoral systems. Drawing on policy feedback and political socialization theories, we suggest an alternative explanation: education policies generate powerful and lasting policy feedback effects in adolescence, which continue to influence patterns of participation among adults. More concretely, we argue that policies aimed at de-stratifying secondary education (i.e., promoting more comprehensive models of education) are associated with a decrease in political inequality. We empirically investigate our argument in Germany, where education policies vary across subnational units (Länder) and over time. We leverage this variation by combining data on Land-level policies with data on individual’s participation. [R, abr.]
75.6102 GAZMARARIAN, Alexander F. —
What explains the shift to Republicans in places that historically voted for Democrats? This article tests a new explanation for part of this reversal. The shale gas revolution displaced coal, which intensified the salience of national environmental regulations and increased support for Republican presidential candidates. Analysis of presidential elections from 1972 to 2020 with a difference-in-differences design finds that the shale gas shock increased Republican vote share by 4.9 percentage points. Geospatial data, media analysis, and interviews show that voters blamed environmental regulations for their community’s decline and that the backlash was more likely to occur where the shale shock was least visible. The attribution of blame for economic dislocation helps to explain electoral behavior in places “left behind” and sheds light on political responses to climate policy. [R]
75.6103 GENNA, Gaspare M. —
This paper examines the Brexit referendum vote by focusing on how national self-esteem connects with citizen desires to maintain membership in the European Union. Specifically, the analysis focuses on how the perception of the UK and Germany’s roles in the EU led to the leave vote. Given the high level of national pride among the British, Brexiters consider membership in a highly integrated organization as a blow to national selfesteem if they believe the UK has low levels of influence. Evidence demonstrates that a low perceived influence of the UK in the EU and the mistrust of the EU’s regional leader (Germany) can strongly predict the leave vote. However, even among strong nationalists, perceived high UK influence reduces the likelihood of a Brexit vote. Survey data of British voters collected two months prior to the referendum support the hypotheses. [R]
75.6104 GENSCHEL, Philipp —
I review this Special Section in three steps. First, I summarize the theoretical framework, contrasting bellicist and polity-maintenance perspectives on how outside threats such as the war in Ukraine affect the mass politics of EU integration. Second, I report findings about public attitudes and party positions on the war and the EU’s reactions to it. The articles show a broad permissive consensus on more policy integration, and a modest ‘Europeanization’ of party-political messaging. Third, I compare findings on four major explanatory variables: threat perceptions, country-level differences, individual identity and political ideology. The articles show a unifying effect of the war on European mass publics. The remaining disunity is mostly within, not between member states. I conclude with some speculative notes on the future of European unity. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6426]
75.6105 GERBA, Guy —
The 2024 Irish General Election, held on 29 November, was the final act of a tumultuous political year. After two referendums, the resignation of Leo Varadkar from office, and local and European elections, the stage was set for an early general election. However, when the dust settled and results became known, it appeared that the Irish electorate had chosen stability over change. Fianna Fáil emerged as the largest party, followed by its coalition partner, Fine Gael. Sinn Féin, the main opposition party, received a mixed result and was not in a position to form a new government. The Green Party was virtually wiped out, while Labour and Social Democrats almost doubled their seat count. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were able to form a new government with some Independents. Thus, it appears that Ireland has accepted the political realignment in which Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael govern in coalition, Sinn Féin is the main opposition, and the party system continues to fragment. [R]
75.6106 GERVAIS, Bryan T. ; DYE, Connor ; CHIN, Amber —
Adopting toxicity scores produced by Google’s Perspective API has become perhaps the most popular approach to estimating the prevalence of incivility and toxicity in online communication. However, existing scholarship has often overlooked the imbalanced nature of incivility when evaluating the performance of Perspective scores, leading to an overestimation of their effectiveness. In this research note, we demonstrate that once this imbalance is considered, Perspective scores perform poorly in accurately identifying incivility. We then propose a method that leverages Perspective scores to reduce the manual coding needed for developing a high-performing supervised learning classification model. Our findings indicate that combining Perspective scores with supervised learning approaches yields significantly better results for identifying incivility. [R]
75.6107 GIBSON, James L. —
Concern over the breadth of support for political violence is rising among scholars. However, important unanswered questions remain: First, are attitudes toward political violence, as commonly measured, too abstract to have any real-life meaning? Second, how do ever-present contextual factors shape judgments in the events in which violence materializes? Third, given that African-Americans are so often on the receiving end of violence, how supportive are Black people of the use of political violence? Finally, what accounts for variability among Black people in attitudes toward violence — what role is played by experiences with unfair treatment by the police and in-group attachments and identities? Based on a nationally representative panel survey of African-Americans, I provide empirical answers to each of these important questions. [R, abr.]
75.6108 GIBSON, Rachel, et al. —
Studies of online campaigning have consistently demonstrated a positive impact on electoral success, but it remains unclear how this occurs. Some find the content and style of post matter, while others have pointed to overall activity as the key driver, promoting a “broadcast” effect model. Still, others have argued for indirect effects whereby candidates rely on followers to share content within their networks. This paper develops a “joined-up” model to test these arguments that includes new measures to capture the responsiveness of candidate tweets and the extent of user engagement. We apply the model to the 2017 UK General Election Twitter campaign. Our findings confirm a digital campaign effect, but in a two-step rather than direct manner. Specifically, candidates that attract more engagement with their tweets (likes and retweets) enjoy more electoral success. We expand on our findings to argue for a “network” rather than “broadcast” model of digital campaign effects. [R]
75.6109 GILENS, Martin ; MENDELBERG, Tali ; SHORT, Nicholas —
As disasters become more frequent and costly, understanding attitudes toward government disaster policy becomes critically important. Scholars have explored the racialized nature of specific disasters such as Hurricane Katrina. But studies of general disaster policy preferences have not attended much to race, focusing instead on dimensions like partisanship and perceived deservingness. We use two original national surveys to assess the role of racial attitudes and ethnoracial identification on support for disaster spending. We find that racial attitudes are among the most powerful predictors of disaster spending preferences. They also strongly condition support for racially-targeted reasons justifying disaster spending. We also find that support for disaster spending is highest among Black Americans and lowest among Whites. Racial attitudes account for much of this racial gap, and strongly predict preferences even with controls for political attitudes, experience with disaster, and demographics. [R, abr.]
75.6110 GILLISSEN, Matthijs ; ROODUIJN, Matthijs ; SCHUMACHER, Gijs —
Empathy has been proposed as a solution to alleviate interparty antipathy. Recent findings from the US suggest that one aspect of empathy – empathic concern – increases rather than decreases affective polarization. Perspective-taking, another aspect of empathy, has no effect on affective polarization. In this article, we describe a preregistered replication and extension of these findings in the contrasting political context of the Netherlands, to see whether this relationship generalizes beyond the US. First, using a cross-sectional nationally representative sample of 1,258 Dutch voters, we show that empathic concern indeed fuels affective polarization while at the same time we find that perspective-taking reduces it. Second, using a two-arm survey experiment (n = 438), we show that perspectivetaking reduces ingroup bias, whereas empathic concern does not. Reflecting on the American and Dutch findings, we conclude that while empathic concern likely contributes to affective polarization, perspective-taking may reduce it. [R]
75.6111 GINNANE, Tara —
This article presents a new way to assess whether laws that grant membership of a democratic people are themselves democratically legitimate. It thus offers a new answer to the old question of whether a democracy’s boundaries can be democratic. The contestable peoplehood account builds from work that sees boundaries as irresolvable paradoxes that generate legitimacy through contestation. It also shows that boundaries shape identity by implying substantive accounts of peoplehood. Connecting these threads, it argues that boundaries are democratically legitimate when their implied accounts of peoplehood support contestation about what the basis of the people should be. It develops two new criteria to assess this, called contingency and non-denigration. The contestable peoplehood account offers a more politicized and pluralist way to assess boundaries’ democratic legitimacy than previously available. [R]
75.6112 GIORGI, Alberta ; MARTÍNEZ-ARIÑO, Julia —
This collection explores the intersections of religion, gender, and sexuality in contexts of political turmoil and polarisation, adopting perspectives from sociology, anthropology, and religious studies. From an intersectional perspective, it examines how various actors mobilise these categories in public discourse, governance, and activism, highlighting the power dynamics that shape religious and sexual identities. Contributions address three primary forms of politicisation: conservative Christian movements opposing ‘gender ideology’, right-wing populist instrumentalisation of gender equality within anti-immigrant narratives, and religious and non-religious women’s advocacy for gender rights. Drawing on empirical data from diverse geographical regions, the studies investigate both political dynamics and individual agency, showing how actors navigate and challenge categorisations of ‘otherness’. Key topics include municipal policies on religious and sexual diversity in Spain, African Pentecostal practices in the Netherlands, public opinion on reproductive rights in Latin America, LGBTQI+ activism in Georgia, interfaith women’s activism in Italy, and feminist collective apostasies in Argentina and Spain. Together, these contributions reveal the complex entanglements of religion, gender, and sexuality in contentious politics and call for nuanced, context-specific analyses. [R]
75.6113 GO, Min Hee ; CHUNG, Yeojin —
How does democratic progress affect the evolution of women’s issues? Although previous studies showed the significance of democratic transition in mainstreaming women’s issues, little is known about how women’s issues change along with the deepening of democracy. To fill the gap, this article revisits and tests the effects of democratization in three steps: democratization, democratic progress, and saturation. Focusing on South Korea, we analyse the patterns of legislative speeches on women out of the entire corpus of the plenary session meeting speeches (462,568 in total) from 1948 to 2022. We report three findings: First, democratization served as a key structural breakthrough, especially with regard to institutionalizing women’s rights. Second, democratic progress has a positive association with women’s issue representation in the legislature. Finally, the positive effect of democratic progress diminished once women’s policies were legislated and implemented in government. All in all, these findings suggest a nuanced and dynamic relationship between democratic progress and women’s issue representation. [R]
75.6114 GODEFROIDT, Amélie ; MURADOVA, Lala —
What drives public support for peace provisions? Based on intergroup attribution theory, we argue that public support for peace provisions depends on “who bears the burden of peace,” with people wanting to protect their ingroup while holding the outgroup accountable. To examine this claim, we conducted a series of question-wording experiments with more than 1650 Azerbaijani participants shortly after a deadly resurgence of the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Our initial findings confirm that support for war crime punishments and monetary reparations decreases when the ingroup stands trial or must pay. Conversely, support increases when these same burdens fall on the outgroup. A follow-up study shows that these patterns persist for at least 6 months but also reveals a more nuanced perspective. Public support for peace provisions does not automatically decrease when the ingroup bears the cost or increase when the outgroup bears it; rather, it depends on the group-based implications of the provision under consideration. Taken together, our results underscore the importance of crafting and communicating peace provisions in a tailored manner and the potential of emphasizing burden sharing as an effective strategy for addressing intergroup hostilities and fostering sustainable peace. [R]
75.6115 GOES, Eunice —
The experiences of Portugal’s Socialist Party, which was in power for eight years and was led by António Costa, offer useful lessons to centre-left governments that seek re-election. In its first term in office, the Socialist Party governed with the support of the parties of the radical left and was able to deliver visible improvements to living standards and complete a full parliamentary term. However, in the second half of its period in power, the socialists wasted the parliamentary majorities obtained in 2019 and 2022 and faced early elections and a humiliating defeat in 2024. The lessons from this eight-year period seem clear: a leadership style that prioritises dialogue and cooperation with the left can deliver political stability and electoral victories, but complacency about standards in public life is often punished at the ballot box. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6289]
75.6116 GOOT, Murray —
That bipartisanship has been required for referendums to change the Australian Constitution to succeed is regarded widely as axiomatic. But the idea of bipartisanship as a necessary condition of success is relatively new; in the first half of the 20th c., party opposition did not loom large in accounts of why referendums failed. The importance attached to bipartisanship is based on a misreading of the record from 1906 to 1951: first, because there is one referendum — the 1946 referendum on Social Services — that passed without bipartisan support; second, because several other referendums came close to passing, despite lacking bipartisan support; and third, because bipartisanship allows for the minor party in a coalition to be opposed provided the major party is in favour — one reason why commentators have misread the success of the Social Services referendum. [R, abr.]
75.6117 GORDON, Kelly —
This article explores the role of feminist legal ambivalence in Irish abortion activism, arguing for its continued relevance after the repeal of the Eighth Amendment. Legal ambivalence, which involves a combination of skepticism and engagement with the law, has long been a feature of feminist theory due to the law’s role in maintaining patriarchal norms. In the context of Irish abortion advocacy, this ambivalence has provided strategic advantages. Early resistance from the Irish Church and State led activists to approach legal reforms with caution, fostering a productive ambivalence that facilitated actions such as accessing abortions abroad and employing art-based protests. The article outlines how this nuanced stance toward the law evolved over time, benefiting feminist and reproductive rights activism. It argues that Irish abortion advocates should capitalize on this history by advocating for the full decriminalization of abortion. This strategy, the article suggests, carries symbolic power, has been proven advantageous in other countries, and is both pragmatic and feasible in Ireland. Ultimately, the article calls for a continued embrace of legal ambivalence as a tool to challenge restrictive laws and advance reproductive freedom. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6704]
75.6118 GOROKHOVA, T., et al. —
This study investigates the educational support systems and integration strategies of war-affected Ukrainian university students in Australia and Germany, focusing on the adaptive strategies these forced young migrants employ during their transition. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines qualitative interviews and secondary data analysis, the research reveals the challenges these students encounter, including language barriers, social isolation, financial limitations, and the psychological impacts of war-related displacement. The findings highlight the role of universities in facilitating access to education, enhancing socio-cultural integration, and fostering academic success in such adaptation. A comparative analysis reveals that Australia prioritizes community engagement and civil society organizations involvement, while Germany focuses on structured institutional support and policy-driven initiatives. This research emphasizes the necessity for tailored, comprehensive support systems that address the unique needs of young migrant students, contributing to ongoing discussions on youth forced migration, refugee education, and inclusive policy development. Insights from this study aim to inform strategies for improving educational outcomes and promoting social inclusion for displaced youth within higher education settings. [R] [See Abstr. 75.5921]
75.6119 GOTHE, Heiko —
The 2024 European elections in Germany took place against the backdrop of a fundamentally pro-European mood. For most Germans, the EU guarantees protection and safe coexistence in Europe in times of crisis. Peacekeeping and social security were the most important issues for voters. The issue of immigration gained in importance, while climate protection lost ground. The oppositional Conservatives (CDU/CSU) were once again the strongest party — but despite great dissatisfaction with the federal government, it was only able to make small gains. The far-right party AfD came in second place thanks to a significant increase in its share of the vote, driven by its restrictive migration policy. The ruling Social Democrats slipped to a historic low, weighed down by the poor perception of the governing coalition and a lack of confidence in its ability to achieve social justice. [R, abr.]
75.6120 GOUVÊA MACIEL, Gustavo —
This article delves into the dynamics of power, public ethics, and injustice to explain the tolerance towards types of corruption that challenge democracy and go far beyond the most discussed illegal ‘Market’ aspects. The aim is to explore the patterns of the more ‘Parochial’ aspects of reciprocity and kinship and the ‘Institutional’ aspects of manipulating the norms and purposes of institutions that corruption has. Using the results of two original surveys conducted simultaneously (between October 2020 and April 2021), in which citizens and politicians in Portugal were asked about eleven potentially corrupt behaviours, this study concludes that it is the normalisation of parochialism in power relations that has been indirectly promoting the maintenance of institutional mechanisms that reinforce exclusion and the adoption of unethical behaviours to restore a sense of equality. It is argued that the antidote to Tolerance towards Corruption (TtC) consists of a formula that includes the constant improvement of the regulation of ethics in public life and public policies capable of mitigating the injustices associated with deprivation. [R]
75.6121 GOYAL, Tanushree —
What drives the career advancement of female politicians in opaque selection environments where party activists hold sway? I argue that women’s higher presence in local politics not only improves party elite responsiveness to greater talent supply (top-down mechanism) but also expands women s capacity to organize grassroots activist networks to influence party-nomination decisions (bottom-up mechanism). Using the natural experiment of gender quotas in Delhi, which cause as-if-random variation in the number of local reserved seats within state constituencies, I estimate a novel effect of gender quotas. In state constituencies with women’s higher presence in local politics, local female politicians are more likely to be promoted, and senior female politicians are more likely to get renominated. Qualitative evidence shows how women leverage grassroots networks and forge informal connections across party hierarchies. The findings emphasize the pivotal role of women’s strategic political networks and grassroots organizing in shaping their political careers. [R]
75.6122 GRAHN, Michal ; MILLER, Cherry M. —
The objective of feminist institutionalist (FI) political science is to expose institutions that perpetuate gender inequalities. The nature of these entities and the best strategies for studying them remain hotly debated topics. Some scholars identify ethnography as a valuable methodology for FI research. However, novices to this methodology might need help navigating it. In this theory-generating article, we aim to bridge the gap between different approaches to FI and ethnographic methodologies. We propose ethnographic approaches suitable for scholars who see gendered institutions as real entities that constrain and enable human practices, as well as those who perceive them as sedimented clusters of meanings. We illustrate our arguments using a partially fictional empirical example, inspired by findings from our own ethnographic research. We hope that this article will promote increased engagement, both theoretical and empirical, with ethnography among FI scholars. [R]
75.6123 GRAY, Thomas R. ; JENKINS, Jeffery A. —
How much did the enactment of poll taxes or literacy tests affect turnout in [US] federal and state elections? And how much did those disenfranchising provisions dampen vote totals for Republican candidates in the South? Using the staggered implementation and removal of several disenfranchising policies over a 101-year period, we answer these questions and provide some precision to our collective knowledge of the “disenfranchising era” in American electoral politics. Overall, we find that the poll tax was the main driver of disenfranchisement in Southern elections, with literacy tests and the Australian ballot providing some secondary effects. We also find that ex-felon disenfranchisement laws were considerably more important — both in reducing turnout as well as Republican vote share in Southern elections — than has been traditionally understood. Finally, we unpack the “South” and unsurprisingly find that racial politics drove these results. [R, abr.]
75.6124 GREGERSEN, Thea ; HELLIESEN, Mari S. ; JAGERS, Sverker C. —
We investigate whether the public acknowledges a link between climate change and (in)justice, and, if so, what they consider unjust. A representative sample of the Norwegian public (N = 1923) was asked what, if anything, they think can be unjust about climate change, in an open-ended survey question. Categorizing the responses in line with conventional climate justice dimensions, we found that the majority of respondents referred to some type of distributional justice, while few referred to procedural or recognition justice arguments. Analysing the responses in a bottom-up manner, by identifying recurring themes, revealed a frequent emphasis on international distribution, followed by distribution between rich and poor and unjust climate policies. We also identified arguments diffusing Norway’s responsibility, typically focusing on Norway being a small country. [R, abr.]
75.6125 GUAN, Ting ; LIAO, Yufei ; XUE, Bing —
The impact of major global events on public attitudes towards sustainable development is crucial for shaping global public policy. This paper explores this relationship by examining how COVID-19 has affected public attitudes towards sustainability. We analyzed data from an online survey of 23,895 respondents across China in February 2020 to study the relationship between the severity of the pandemic and public attitudes, as well as the underlying dynamics, including the mediating roles of government intervention and media trust. Our findings indicate a significant negative correlation between the severity of COVID-19 and Chinese public attitudes towards sustainable development, particularly among employees, females, younger individuals, and those with a college degree or above. We further find that public interventions (i.e. governmental regulations) promote a positive shift in attitude through mediating effects. We also discover that an individual’s trust in public media plays a role in mediating the effect between individual exposure to media and a supportive attitude towards sustainable development. This study deepens our understanding of how public attitudes change in response to major events, providing valuable insights into the interplay between global events and public opinion on sustainability. [R]
75.6126 GUTIERREZ, Angela —
This paper examines the rise of group consciousness in California during the 1990s. Many scholars have studied the increase in political participation in California and have alluded to an increase in group consciousness, but studies have not captured whether or not this actually exists. I use seven surveys conducted between 1989 and 2004 and leverage the timing of these surveys to examine the role of perceived discrimination on Latino group consciousness in California. I hypothesize that the impact of political threat motivated an increase in group consciousness, which is driven by Latinos who perceived the discriminatory nature of California’s proposition politics in the 1990s. I find support for the hypothesis that perceived discrimination is positively associated with group consciousness during this time. [R, abr.]
75.6127 HAESEVOETS, Tessa ; VERSCHUERE, Bram ; ROETS, Arne —
Most prior studies examining citizens’ preferences for “who should govern” assume that people prefer either politicians, citizens, or experts to exclusively influence policy decisions. Our approach posits that individuals may actually prefer a mix of these actors. Across two studies, we discovered that people indeed favour the involvement of all three actors in policy decisions, but with specific relative importance assigned to each of them. Notably, our second study clarified that which actor should have the largest say depends on the specific issue at hand, with citizens outweighing experts and politicians for ideological issues and experts outweighing citizens and politicians for technical issues. These findings are particularly relevant, given that these two actors were found to outperform each other in a different legitimacy dimension. That is, citizens’ contribution is seen most in terms of input legitimacy, whereas experts are perceived as contributing most to output legitimacy, particularly for technical issues. In contrast, politicians are considered to contribute the least to all three legitimacy dimensions. To enhance the perceived legitimacy of policy decisions among the citizenry, it becomes crucial for policymakers to embrace a more “hybrid” perspective, acknowledging the value of a more diverse collaboration between politicians, citizens, and experts. [R]
75.6128 HAJNAL, Áron —
Competitive authoritarianism, a specific type of hybrid regime, is gaining ground globally. Corruption is particularly prevalent in these contexts as regimes utilise it to consolidate their power. However, some competitive authoritarian regimes also take significant measures to curb certain types of corruption. The present article posits that competitive authoritarian regimes, acting as rational utility-maximising actors, curb or enhance corruption types based on the net costs and benefits — that is, net gains — they yield for the regime. To elucidate the factors influencing net gains, an explanatory framework is presented. Its three constituent elements are accountability costs, transaction costs, and political benefits. The applicability of the framework is demonstrated with case studies of two corruption types in Hungary, namely, informal payments in healthcare and clien-telism in awarding tobacco retail concessions. [R]
75.6129 HALL, Stephen ; SMITH, Ian —
The potential for green community groups to respond effectively to climate change depends on the heterogeneity of preferences of individual member activists. Using a Q-methodology study of two groups in England, we propose an original typology of collective action frames for local green activism: ‘consensus seeking’, ‘community building’, ‘radical adversarial’, and ‘eco-egalitarian’. These differ according to how activists articulate and act upon the diagnosis of the problem, the solutions proposed, and the rationale for action. Both groups comprised members aligned to the four different frames, none of which was dominant. This presents organisers with the challenge of how to construct frames meaningful to such heterogeneous collectives. Ongoing (re)framing was observed in both groups, reflecting struggles between the four frames identified. We conclude by reflecting on how a heterogeneity of frames within community groups was managed through flexible organisational forms that facilitate multiple platforms and projects, enabling sub-groups to act autonomously. [R]
75.6130 HAMAN, Michael ; ŠKOLNÍK, Milan —
This note discusses the impact of changes made to Twitter after Elon Musk’s acquisition of the company, specifically focusing on the verification of politicians’ accounts. With Twitter serving as an essential source of information, the blue badge of verification has provided assurance of account legitimacy. However, as of April 2023, blue badges were removed from the accounts of users without a Twitter Blue subscription. This note analyzes the verification status of politicians’ accounts before and after the changes and finds that over 80% of previously verified politicians have lost their verification. The study used a dataset of 5,156 Twitter accounts of current or former members of parliament in 32 European countries. The note also highlights that the new gray badge, which was introduced to replace the blue badge for politicians and government organizations, is not widely awarded, except in the United Kingdom where members of parliament have a gray badge. [R]
75.6131 HAN, Kyung Joon —
How do voters’ and political parties’ characteristics on populism affect voters’ estimations of political parties’ left/right ideologies? Following the theories of cognitive projection in social psychology, we argue that the similarity or disparity in populism between voters and political parties affects voters’ estimations of political parties’ left/right ideologies. Using survey and party position data in 15 Western European countries, we find that people locate a political party’s left/right ideological position closer to their own stance than it is in reality when their populism position is similar with the political party’s populist ideology though the substantive size of the projection bias effect is not very large. We also find that this populism effect is larger among people with a low education level, people without political interest, and political parties with an ambiguous left/right ideological position. The results imply cognitive connections between populism and left/right ideology and help us to understand political behaviors that crosscut the traditional left/right ideological dimension. [R]
75.6132 HARMAN, Moriah —
As economic inequality and poverty continue to be a concern in the US, it is imperative to explore the factors shaping attitudes toward policies designed to reduce both. Self-interest tends to be a consistent driver of redistributive policy preferences; as income increases, support for redistribution typically decreases. However, it is also clear that self-interest is not the only motive for supporting or opposing redistributive policies. Certain beliefs, such as those concerning the causes of poverty, may help explain why individuals do not always act in their own material self-interest. Individuals tend, on average, to be more willing to support policies that help people if they believe that people are deserving of the help. In this paper I ask: Is the relationship between family income and redistributive policy preferences moderated by poverty attributions? [R, abr.]
75.6133 HARPER, Samuel F. —
While citizens’ knowledge of their own state’s policies has been investigated, little attention has been paid to citizens’ knowledge of policy differences across the United States. Citizen knowledge of out-of-state policy adoptions may drive diffusion, but a direct test of this knowledge has yet to be conducted. Using a national survey of US adults, I investigate the relationship between individual, state, and policy characteristics and out-of-state knowledge of four policies: recreational marijuana legalization, assault weapon bans, physician-assisted suicide, and in-state tuition for undocumented immigrants. I find that Americans know about out-of-state policies. However, this knowledge varies with an individual’s education attainment and ideological strength, a policy’s observability and complexity, and a state’s liberalism and population. [R]
75.6134 HARWOOD, Mark —
Unlike other South European member-states of the EU, Malta did not experience any negative ramifications from the 2008 financial crisis and its eurozone membership has been stable, with the country enjoying sustained and high growth rates. Not surprisingly, Malta did not see the emergence of austerity-related euroscepticism after the crisis though a heavy influx of foreign nationals, from Africa and the EU, saw immigration become a key concern of the Maltese with the subsequent emergence of anti-immigrant, often anti-EU parties on the fringe of the party system. This article analyses the reasons why party and popular euroscepticism remain low and why the migration crisis did not dent support for the EU as well the durability of this scenario. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6303]
75.6135 HE, Kun ; ELDRIDGE, Scott A, II ; BROERSMA, Marcel —
This paper explores online bottom-up populism in China by examining the discursive logics of populism that emerge within expressions of populist discontent. Through a conceptualization of the affordances of social media that considers what they enable alongside what they constrain, it uses a computational grounded theory approach to examine individuals’ posts and the use of hashtags in online communication on Sina Weibo around the #DrivingIntoThePalaceMuseum case. Through its analysis, three discursive logics of online populism are identified: antagonistic logic, polarization logic and protest logic. However, while the affordances of social media enable populist discourse polarization, they also enable “depolarization” through the government’s censorship mechanisms. This results in a dynamic bottom-up populism articulation that reflects an awareness of China’s censorship mechanisms. Within the Chinese media environment, this functions as a “pressure valve” releasing the buildup of populist sentiment in a Chinese “social volcano.” [R]
75.6136 HEERSINK, Boris ; LACOMBE, Matthew J. —
While scholars have focused extensively on the consequences of partnerships between interest groups, less attention has been paid to the historical dynamics shaping when, how, and why such groups unite. This is especially true of “unexpected” partnerships, which unite groups with seemingly little in common. Such partnerships are important, as they can reshape to an unusual degree which actors, issues, and ideas “fit together” politically. We address the puzzle of how unexpected group partnerships form through case studies of previously non-existent alliances between labor unions and the gay/lesbian rights movement in the US and UK in the 1970s and 1980s. Using these cases, we produce a theory arguing that unexpected partnerships are a product of a favorable political opportunity structure and the actions of entrepreneurial group leaders, who forge cross-group identities, accentuate shared ideological convictions, and build institutional ties. [R, abr.]
75.6137 HEINRICH, Tobias ; WITKO, Christopher —
Workers have often advocated for regulation to protect themselves from labor market threats. Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to transform many jobs in the coming years, especially those of white collar professionals. Yet we know little about the attitudes these and other workers hold or may develop toward the regulation of such technology. We argue that both self-interested and sociotropic concerns likely shape AI regulatory attitudes, and examine these arguments using a survey experiment exposing individuals to information about how technology will affect the work of people engaged in either routine, repetitive tasks or white collar, cognitive tasks. We anticipate that compared to a placebo group, individuals exposed to news about the impact of technology on jobs will favor regulation, and even more strongly when it is their own job type highlighted in the treatment. We find only modest responsiveness to the treatments on average, but observe that individuals with more knowledge of technology are strongly responsive to the AI treatments in the hypothesized manner. [R]
75.6138 HEINZE, Alyssa R. ; BRULÉ, Rachel E. ; CHAUCHARD, Simon —
Research on representative democracy often assumes that elected officials from disadvantaged and dominant groups have equal input into decision-making once in office. Drawing on an original micro-level survey in 320 Indian village councils, we leverage both reputational and behavioral measures to show that this assumption does not hold. Women elected via gender quotas do not equally participate in decision-making processes within village councils. We additionally show that these inequalities owe to both discrimination and selection mechanisms. Recognition of this underappreciated form of political inequality is imperative for scholars to accurately identify the strengths and limitations of descriptive representation. From a policy standpoint, this suggests that reforms aiming to increase the representation of members of traditionally excluded groups (quotas) may not be sufficient to enable individuals from long-excluded groups to play a central role in decision-making. [R]
75.6139 HERTEL-FERNANDEZ, Alexander —
I consider the role of exposure to large-scale strikes in shaping preferences about workplace action and labor unions, replicating and extending past work identifying the effect of large-scale teachers’ strikes. I study a large 2019 grocery store strike. Using an original survey fielded in affected states and an instrumental variables design, I find strike exposure increased support for the strikes, including actions taken supporting the striking workers. I do not find consistent evidence that strikes increased interest in online actions to support other workers or in workers taking most forms of labor actions at their own jobs. Firsthand contact with strikes had no effect on individuals’ broader perceptions of the labor movement or support for a union at their job. [R, abr.]
75.6140 HILLEN, Sven ; STEINER, Nils D. ; LANDWEHR, Claudia —
While policy responsiveness is a central criterion for successful democratic representation, little is known about citizens’ perceptions of whether governments are responsive to citizens’ preferences. This article asks how citizens’ perceptions of policy responsiveness are affected by egocentric and sociotropic congruence, that is, how distant the government is from their own and the median citizen’s position. Studying this question with cross-national European data, it is found that citizens consistently perceive governments that are close to their own positions as more responsive. In contrast, a significant effect of sociotropic congruence emerges only for the left-right scale but not for specific policy issues. Moreover, citizens react negatively to the government being distant from the median left-right position only when they themselves are also distant from the government. Overall, these findings indicate that citizens’ perceptions of policy responsiveness crucially hinge on whether they are personally well represented by government policy. [R]
75.6141 HJORTH, Frederik ; NYRUP, Jacob ; LARSEN, Martin Vinæs —
Challenger parties (i.e., parties without prior government experience) have transformed politics in Europe and beyond, some eventually joining governing coalitions. However, the process by which challenger parties gain access to power remains unclear. We argue that holding elected office in itself improves challenger parties’ chances of entering government. We find support for this expectation in cross-sectional, national-level data. To establish causality, we apply a regression discontinuity design to an original dataset of more than 2,500 elections and 15,000 committee assignments from local governments in Denmark. We show that legislative incumbency increases challenger parties’ access to government in the following electoral term. Lastly, using data from candidate surveys, we show that incumbent challenger parties take more moderate positions and use more mainstream language, consistent with a moderation mechanism. [R, abr.]
75.6142 HOLLIDAY, Derek E., et al. —
Faith in American elections is eroding, with politicians frequently questioning the legitimacy of election results and spreading misinformation about voter fraud. Substantial work has been done to refute misinformation and increase confidence in elections, but often without a clear picture of who skeptics are and why they are skeptical. Using a nationally representative survey from around the 2022 midterm election (N = 5,244) and beyond (N = 77,325), we provide a comprehensive profile of election skeptics: their prevalence, views, and justifications. Our use of quantitative and qualitative data reveals a more milquetoast portrait of skeptics. Skeptics are demographically closer to the broader electorate than not, and the selfreported underpinnings of skepticism are more mundane than conspiratorial. [R, abr.]
75.6143 HOPKINS, Daniel J. ; LELKES, Yphtach ; WOLKEN, Samuel —
While some assert that social identities have become more salient in American media coverage, existing evidence is largely anecdotal. An increased emphasis on social identities has important political implications, including for polarization and representation. We first document the rising salience of different social identities using natural language processing tools to analyze all tweets from 19 media outlets (2008-2021) alongside 553,078 URLs shared on Facebook. We then examine one potential mechanism: Outlets may highlight meaningful social identities — race/ethnicity, gender, religion, or partisanship — to attract readers through various social and psychological pathways. We find that identity cues are associated with increases in some forms of engagement on social media. To probe causality, we analyze 3,828 randomized headline experiments conducted via Upworthy. Headlines mentioning racial/ethnic identities generated more engagement than headlines that did not, with suggestive evidence for other identities. Identity-oriented media coverage is growing and rooted partly in audience demand. [R]
75.6144 HUERTAS-HERNÁNDEZ, Sergio ; OLIVARES L., Alejandro ; PÉREZ-ARROBO, Gustavo —
The paper provides a comparative analysis of the presidential systems of Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Uruguay, covering the period between 1989 and 2022, with the aim of examining the factors that motivate a person in the head of a ministry to seek the presidential candidacy. The central argument holds that both the incumbent president and the political parties have the purpose of taking advantage of a person’s passage through a Cabinet of State to boost his or her presidential candidacy within the political organization. The selected cases are justified due to the existence of historical moments in which ministers have left their posts to compete for the presidency in these countries. The methodology employed in this study follows a multi-method logic. First, quantitative logistic regression analysis is used, followed by qualitative press analysis of ministers’ careers to support the theoretical argument. The most notable results highlight that having a political profile, being a member of the president’s political party and having held a political ministry are influential factors when running in presidential elections. [R]
75.6145 HUSSON, Clara ; PALMA, Nicola —
Individuals’ exposure to morality elicits instantaneous intuitions and influences personal behavior without rational thought or reasoning. Despite our increasing knowledge about the ideology-driven use of morality in bipartisan systems, we lack a good understanding, on the one hand, of political actors’ use of moral appeals in multiparty settings and, on the other hand, of what incentives besides ideology lead political actors to strategically use morality. To fill this gap, we examine parties’ use of moral appeals applying newly translated versions of the Moral Foundations Dictionary (MFD) into four languages (French, German, Italian, and Spanish) to party manifestos. Our analysis focuses on 31 elections in nine European multiparty systems over the last two decades. Our findings suggest that the use of morality is ideology-driven for some moral foundations, whereas some other moral domains are being used by political actors according to an issuedependent logic. From a methodological perspective, this article proposes (1) a fully reproducible semi-automatic translation procedure and (2) an innovative time- and resource-efficient dictionary validation methodology based on formally translated documents. [R]
75.6146 HUYNH, Nguyen Khoi —
The rise of right-wing populist (RWP) parties across democracies who disparage and seek to dismantle international (environmental) agreements poses a grave threat to the liberal international order. Yet we know surprisingly little about how RWP parties influence the design of international agreements, including international environmental agreements (IEAs). This article explores the link between RWP parties and a key outcome in the design of IEAs — flexibility provisions used by democracies to reduce their obligations to curb environmental pollution. The theoretical framework first posits that RWP parties allege that IEAs hurt ordinary people to garner support from domestic constituents adversely affected by IEA environmental mandates. When a RWP party holds a majority of seats in its country’s legislature, it employs its legislative leverage in the international arena to negotiate and obtain maximum flexibility provisions from other member states to safeguard their constituents. [R, abr.]
75.6147 HYUN, Sinae —
Sitala, a Thailand-born female, debuted as a member of the K-pop band H1-KEY in South Korea despite protests by Thai and Korean fans over her involvement in the pro-coup rallies in Thailand that ultimately led to the success of the 2014 military coup. In less than five months, however, she left the K-Pop industry. This article examines the controversy and how the increasingly politicizing K-Pop fandom utilized its fan network and community as an outlet to raise the issues of social justice and inequality in Thailand during the pandemic. Notably, the controversy focused on the meaning and role of apology and reconciliation in Thailand and Korea which helped to create transnational alliances among fans around the globe. Based on the survey, this article argues the Thai youth successfully raised domestic and international awareness of the lack of social justice and equality by utilizing global K-pop fandom. The success will have a considerable impact on the K-pop industry, especially for its role in social change. [R]
75.6148 INVERNIZZI, Giovanna M. ; PRATO, Carlo —
How do political parties share power internally? We study the internal organization of political parties as the solution of a moral hazard problem between a party conference and its factions. Factions’ mobilization efforts benefit the party electorally, but can only be imperfectly monitored. In contrast with the logic of Michel’s Iron Law, we provide a functionalist rationale for intraparty power sharing: We show that internal power sharing can enhance a party’s electoral performance. This effect is stronger in settings that award more resources to election winners: Low interparty power sharing produces high intraparty power sharing. We also show that intraparty power sharing should be more frequent within smaller parties, when monitoring of factional effort is more precise (e.g., preferential voting systems), and when factions’ ideological disagreements span multiple dimensions. [R]
75.6149 ISERNIA, Pierangelo, et al. —
The datasets on the Italian political class provides two sets of information: (1) census data on a broad spectrum of individual-level variables on elected politicians, offering an updated mapping of the characteristics of more than 20,000 Italian representatives at all governmental levels; (2) survey data on politicians’ attitudes towards elections, participation, public opinion, several national and international policy issues, and their views of political representation. Between September 2020 and January 2021, 2134 elected politicians at the local (n = 1917), regional (n = 128), national (n = 75) and European (n = 14) levels were interviewed, making this one of the largest surveys of the Italian political elites ever conducted and a valuable resource for researchers interested in the study of democratic representation. [R]
75.6150 ISHIYAMA, John —
Why do civil war successor parties (CWSPs) renounce the use of violence as a political tool after civil wars end? If they renounce violence, this is an indicator of their successful transition to democratic competition. I explore a variety of factors that may incentivize a CWSP to renounce violence as a political tactic. These include whether the CWSP is likely to participate in competitive elections, the strength of party organization, the intensity and duration of the previous civil war, and whether the party faces an environment of electoral violence. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy-Parties dataset and other data sources, I find that electoral incentives are related to the renunciation of violence and the threat of electoral violence is negatively related to renunciation. Strength of organization is also negatively related to the renunciation of violence. [R, abr.]
75.6151 JACOB, Marc S. —
In many elections worldwide, citizens support politicians who have undermined democracy while in office. Why? For citizens to safeguard democratic institutions, they must not only disapprove of a politician’s undemocratic conduct but also be willing to retract support from her at the next election. This article examines under which conditions citizen evaluations of undemocratic elite conduct become consequential for behavioral actions and whether specific segments of the electorate, such as politically educated, liberal, antimajoritarian, and moderate partisans, react more forcefully to such elite violations. Evidence from a survey experiment in Poland, closely following the sequence of presidential elections, reveals that citizens firmly dislike attacks on core electoral institutions, irrespective of whether they are committed by incumbent or oppositional copartisans. However, neither the electorate’s nor any segment’s dissent translates into revised vote choices. The study has implications for why undemocratic elite behavior often remains unpunished and citizens rarely avert democratic backsliding. [R]
75.6152 JANKOWSKI, Michael —
Despite its recent founding, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has already developed into a relevant player in the German party system. This article provides a more comprehensive look at the BSW electorate based on panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study. By using panel data, it is possible not only to describe the current attitudes of BSW supporters but also to track their changes over time. The analysis shows three key points: (1) The BSW is particularly popular with former left-wing supporters and voters who turned away from the established parties after the federal election of 2021 and have since sympathized with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The founding of the BSW and the decline of the AfD in the polls are therefore linked. (2) The BSW closes a representation gap in the German party system. Already many years ago — when the founding of the BSW was not up for debate — respondents who now support the BSW were different from the other respondents, even when previous voting behavior is controlled for. This is particularly true for attitudes toward regulating immigration. (3) The BSW supporters have also previously shown critical attitudes toward (representative) democracy (low satisfaction with democracy and high populism). Overall, the results suggest that the BSW has a distinct electorate, which should contribute to its further establishment in the German party system. [R]
75.6153 JENKE, Libby —
Gender stereotypes may impact voters’ candidate choices. But do gender stereotypes impact voters’ attention when learning about candidates? This paper explores whether citizens take part in gender biased information acquisition when learning about women and men candidates. In an experiment, I use eye tracking to measure respondents’ attention to gender stereotype-consistent and inconsistent information. The results indicate that citizens do not differ in their attention to different candidate information according to candidate gender. Additionally, respondents’ own sex does not make a difference in their attention to masculine- and feminine-stereotyped information for women or men candidates. These findings provide an important specification of the mechanism behind gender bias in candidate choices: the bias appears to be different standards of judgment for candidates of different genders, not different compositions of information being judged for candidates of different genders. [R]
75.6154 JENSEN, Jakob Linaa —
This article provides a comprehensive longitudinal survey of Internet effects in Danish elections, spanning across 15 years and covering five Danish national elections. Rather than utilizing an institutional macro-level approach, this article adopts a micro-level perspective by investigating individually perceived effects, assessed through survey questionnaires. The investigation draws on theoretical concepts of media affordances, political engagement, and efficacy as predictors for perceived effects as well as including the influence of demographic factors. This article examines two categories of perceived effects, internal and external. Internal effects are defined as increased political competence and knowledge, what can also be called personal effects. The study reveals a rise in respondents’ acknowledgment of the Internet’s role in enhancing political awareness and influencing opinions and party choices. [R, abr.]
75.6155 JENSEN, Mads Dagnis ; WANG, Suen —
This study examines the “contagious” effect of legislative gender quotas on gender-equal access to jobs in state institutions, and how this effect varies across regime types. Combining theories on contagious representation with prior work on gender and regime types, we analyse a panel dataset of 160 countries from 1981 to 2020 using a generalized differencein-differences model. We find that quotas significantly increase genderequal access to state jobs in democracies, but not in autocracies. This effect is robust to accounting for women’s representation in elected office and persists regardless of the magnitude of the increase in women’s legislative representation after quotas are implemented. The effect emerges only after democratization and becomes significant 3 years after a transition, which increases our confidence that the contagious effect is contingent on the democratic context. [R]
75.6156 JONG, Jona de ; KAMPHORST, Jonne —
Across Western democracies, education levels are predictive of immigration attitudes and voting for new left or far right parties. What explains education-based political divides? This article proposes that social closure of higher- and lower-educated citizens strengthens and reinforces differences in political attitudes and voting between them. Using social network data from the Netherlands, and ESS data, we show that large proportions of higher- and lower-educated citizens report no close relationships with different education levels. Network education levels, in turn, are predictive of immigration attitudes and voting behaviour. Difference-in-differences models show that a change in network education levels is associated with change in these outcomes. Our findings contribute to literatures on educational divides and peer effects. Moreover, they support an interpretation of political competition on the universalist-particularist dimension as durably rooted in social structure. Sizable, distinct and insulated educational groups can crystallize contemporary divides and predictably shape political reality. [R]
75.6157 JOXE, Ludovic —
Since the 2016 launch of Venezuela’s “Orinoco Mining Arc” open-pit mining megaproject, several armed groups known as sindicatos have taken possession of certain mining territories. Adopting the Weberian definition of the state, we hypothesize that the political grouping of the sindicato present on one of these territories, that of Las Claritas, can be qualified as an embryonic state. Pursuing Bourdieu’s questioning of the emergence of the state, we seek to document the statehood process and to bear witness to how “bandits” become “princes.” Based on an ethnographic and documentary approach, our research highlights four mechanisms involved in the process of statehood: institutionalization, monopolization, legitimization and demarcation. [R]
75.6158 KANTOROWICZ-REZNICHENKO, Elena ; DABROWSKA, Justyna ; KANTOROWICZ, Jaroslaw —
The COVID-19 pandemic posed new challenges for leaders, requiring behavior change and public self-compliance. Stereotypically feminine qualities, such as compassion and a good approach to people, may have helped achieve these goals, rendering the pandemic a “feminine crisis.” The special nature of this crisis, along with media attention on female-led countries successfully managing the pandemic, raises the question of whether female leaders would be perceived as more competent in handling such a crisis. In an experimental study conducted on a representative sample in Poland, we assessed whether female prime minister candidates or candidates with feminine traits had an advantage when their competence in managing a large-scale pandemic was evaluated. Surprisingly, we found that, contrary to national security and economic crises (where male or masculine candidates tend to be advantaged), women or feminine candidates were not perceived as having an advantage in managing a COVID-19 type crisis. Furthermore, conservative participants seemed to perceive male candidates as more competent, even in the pandemic context. Although the differences were small in magnitude, they suggest that even in a potentially “feminine crisis,” women do not fare better than men, while men still fare better in stereotypically male crises. [R]
75.6159 KAO, Jay C. ; LIU, Amy H. —
Are host populations more accepting of immigrants who are racially similar and/or linguistically proficient in the host vernacular? The empirical focus in the literature has been largely dominated by Western democracies where the host society is white — and therefore the immigrants are often non-white. We shift the focus to Taiwan, where the “New Residents” — a new catch-all census category for all post-1987 immigrants regardless of race, language, and national origins — offers an empirical opportunity to test our theory. In a conjoint experiment of Taiwanese attitudes and a survey of New Residents, we find attitudes are (1) most positive for Han Chinese who can speak a Taiwanese vernacular; (2) the least positive for Han Chinese who cannot speak a Taiwanese vernacular; and (3) relatively positive when immigrants are neither racially similar nor linguistically proficient. [R, abr.]
75.6160 KAROL, David ; SCOTT, Zachary —
In a time of heightened affective and negative partisanship, we examine the intra-elite party dynamics underlying insulting partisan rhetoric. Our focus is on Republicans’ reference to their partisan opponents as the “Democrat Party,” an ungrammatical mislabeling intended as a slur. We show that this usage, while not new, has exploded in recent years. This increase comes at the same time as significant change within the Republican Party. We argue that the tumultuous changes ushered in by the 2016 election have created fertile ground for factional turnover and enabled the rise of this partisan slur. We further contend that the epithet’s meaning has subtly shifted, suggesting that performatively partisan actors within the party, namely, partisan media, have become centralized actors within the Republican network. We document a general rise in mislabelings of the Democrats concentrated in 2018-2019. [R, abr.]
75.6161 KARTAL, Mert —
The literature on populism in European politics contends that the inability of mainstream parties to address effectively economic challenges and immigration issues fosters protest voting for anti-establishment figures. This article proposes an alternative perspective centred on corruption control and delineates two pathways through which corruption influences support for populist parties in Europe. First, populists exploit growing public discontent with mainstream policymakers’ incapacity to advance sustainable corruption mitigation measures. They espouse an anti-corruption stance and pledge to rectify what ‘the establishment’ fails to address. The second connection arises from the European Union’s (EU) approach to combating corruption. The EU employs an ineffective anti-corruption strategy and attributes unfavourable outcomes to member states and their citizens. This flawed approach contributes to nationalist sentiments across Europe, which populist politicians leverage by adopting an anti-EU rhetoric. Drawing from an original dataset encompassing every national election across 28 European nations from 1990 to 2020, this study probes the circumstances under which populist parties expand their electoral support. Various statistical analyses reveal that the rise in corruption is a fundamental factor driving support for populism. Not only does the EU fail to assist in tackling national corruption, but its anti-corruption strategy inadvertently bolsters public approval of populist politicians. This effect is accentuated in member states where corruption becomes more pronounced post-EU accession. [R]
75.6162 KATSOURIDES, Yiannos —
The people and political parties in the Republic of Cyprus were very pro-EU before the outbreak of the eurozone crisis. Τhe 2013 bail-in, unprecedented for the EU, damaged confidence in the the Cypriot banking system and heightened Cypriots’ negative feelings towards the EU, leading to a dramatic decline in support. The article investigates whether there was a transformation of the supply and demand of euroscepticism in Cyprus, examining both parties and popular attitudes during the crisis years (2009-2019). A hard eurosceptic response proved to be only a fleeting moment and was not sustained. Utilitarianism, security and smallness seem key to understanding Cypriot patterns of soft euroscepticism which appear to fluctuate accordingly. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6303]
75.6163 KAUR, Komal Preet —
Existing research shows that gender quotas implemented at the lowest level of government can have positive spillover effects on enhancing women’s representation at higher levels of government where gender quotas are not in place. Yet it is unclear whether this carry-over effect varies for different subgroups of women. I theorise why gender quotas may support the career progression of some women but not others. Analyzing India’s 40 years of state-level election data, I find that more women from privileged groups have run for higher-level political office with exposure to 50% gender quotas implemented at the village level political office. A closer look at the overall institutional context shows that women from traditionally disadvantaged groups benefit in higher-level elections in the presence of electoral quotas for subordinate groups. Had there been no quotas for marginalised groups at the higher level, the upstream effect of exposure to gender quotas would have been skewed toward women from dominant groups. This research contributes to our understanding of sustainable representation through an intersectional lens and emphasizes the importance of carefully designing institutional reforms in achieving political inclusion. [R]
75.6164 KAVANAGH, Adrian ; D’ARCY, Caoilfhionn —
County and City Council elections took place in the Republic of Ireland on 7 June 2024, the same day as the European election contests. A record number of female candidates contested these election, while there was also a spike in the number of candidates running for smaller parties, as well as the main opposition party, Sinn Féin. Poll trends in the years leading up to these contests anticipated major gains for Sinn Féin, but the party did not fare as well as had been anticipated. The main government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, did better than had been expected, by contrast, although the smaller coalition partner, the Green Party, lost over half of their council seats. These elections also saw the lowest every turnout level for a local election contest in the history of the state, with the national turnout level falling below 50% for the first time ever. [R]
75.6165 KENNEDY, Megan ; NELSON, Michael J. ; HEIDT-FORSYTHE, Erin —
A large literature documents the effects of gendered stereotyping on the outcomes of legislative and executive elections. Less attention has been paid to the effects of these stereotypes on judicial elections, a venue where candidates might encounter unique stereotypes. Further, existing research on judicial elections prioritizes one form of qualification — prior judicial experience — leaving unaddressed the effects of other professional experiences on voters’ choices in these contests. We rely on a conjoint experiment to test the effects of candidate qualifications and gender stereotypes in US state judicial elections. We find that, on average, women candidates are advantaged in judicial elections, though we find no evidence that citizens view women candidates as more qualified. Further, while voters do prefer candidates with prior judicial experience they also — contrary to the conventional wisdom — favor judges with prior political experience. [R, abr.]
75.6166 KENTMEN-CIN, Cigdem —
The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in February 2022 prompted a significant influx of Ukrainian refugees into neighboring European countries. Comparative analyses have revealed that Ukrainian refugees generally received more favorable public reception compared to other groups, such as Syrians. This difference has been attributed to the perceived proximity and spillover risk of the war, as well as shared cultural values with Western countries. However, while initial sympathy towards Ukrainians is evident, concerns about economic implications and longterm costs may erode support over time. This highlights the need for sustained inquiry beyond war related empathy and cultural values. In response, this study calls for an in-depth exploration of refugee attitudes, recognizing the multifaceted nature of public opinion. Such understanding is essential for informing policymaking aimed at effectively supporting displaced populations and for fostering a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of current European responses to the Ukrainian refugee crisis. This paper critically reviews existing literature on public attitudes towards immigrants and refugees, identifying key themes and proposing avenues for future research. [R] [See Abstr. 75.5921]
75.6167 KERR, Peter ; KETTELL, Steven —
In this short contribution to this special issue, we attempt three main things. Firstly, to highlight the pivotal role that the BJPIR has played in helping to initiate and develop a myriad of attempts to understand processes of (de)politicisation. Secondly, to provide a very brief and admittedly selective overview of some of the broader developments in these debates. Thirdly, to pay a brief tribute to the seminal contribution and wider legacy that Pete Burnham’s work has made to our understanding of depoliticisation and its wider role in the state’s attempts to manage its credibility and legitimacy and avoid crises. [R]
75.6168 KESTILÄ-KEKKONEN, Elina ; SIPINEN, Josefina ; SÖDER LUND, Peter —
Studies on political socialisation reveal that children and adolescents develop attitudes towards political processes long before they can actively participate in politics. This study, using panel data on Finnish adolescents (n = 1331), investigates how adolescents’ turnout intention evolves as they approach the official voting age, particularly examining the influence of different educational trajectories on turnout intention among those from politically engaged and unengaged family contexts. Schools play a vital role in political learning, especially for young people without political discussions at home. While family remains the primary agent of socio-political learning, schools offer opportunities to bridge inequalities in political engagement arising from family background and social class. In Finland, education diverges into general and vocational tracks after age 15-16, with significant differences in civic education emphasis. [R, abr.]
75.6169 KIDD, William —
Constitutional hardball is when partisan actors engage in legal tactics that violate democratic norms for political advantage. The Republican Party seems to have engaged in hardball more than the Democratic Party in recent years, which is surprising as both parties should be similarly incentivized to use hardball. This asymmetry in elite behavior could reflect differences in what each parties’ coalitions tolerate. For example, non-white voters might oppose hardball tactics more than white voters for reasons such as hardball historically being used to enforce racial hierarchies. If true, that could constrain on Democratic elites’ actions more Republican elites due to Democrats’ more racially diverse base. I draw on a long line of research on partisanship and group interest to argue instead that both white and non-white voters of both parties should be similarly disposed towards hardball. [R, abr.]
75.6170 KING, Jonathan M. ; SCHOENHERR, Jessica A. ; OSTRANDER, Ian —
Since both parties committed to adding women to the federal bench in the 1970s, Democratic and Republican presidents have sought out qualified women for judgeships. Diversifying the bench offers symbolic and substantive benefits to both parties, but those benefits come at the cost of finding non-traditional nominees. Presidents can take one of two different approaches to diversification: maintain existing diversity by anchoring women to a seat, or increase diversity by considering women for every opening. Given presidents consider many factors, including electoral benefits, when selecting potential judges, we expect partisan politics influence approach. Examining all lower court nominations made between 1981 and 2022, we find that Republican presidents tend to anchor while Democratic presidents expand diversity. Additionally, Senate diversity influences diversification, as women are more likely to get nominated when the relevant state Senate delegation includes a woman. [R, abr.]
75.6171 KIPPIN, Sean —
The Co-operative Party is back in power. Forty-three of its members of Parliament sit on the government benches in the House of Commons, of which four sit in the Cabinet, including the business and trade secretary. Six ‘metro mayors’ also wear the co-operative badge, along with over 1,600 local councillors and representatives in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd. With Labour back in government, this under-explored party may be on the cusp of its peak relevance in British politics. In partnership with Labour since 1927, it pursues a co-operative agenda in politics and policy making. This article explores the role it may play in a Keir Starmer-led Labour majority government. It places these observations in the context of Labour and the Co-operative Party’s previous period in power between 1997-2010, considering some opportunities and potential barriers to the party’s ability to influence government policy in the UK’s post-Brexit, multilevel polity. [R]
75.6172 KNUPPE, Austin J., et al. —
Under what conditions do civilians in countries at war support peace settlements? This study develops a theory of civilian attitudes that integrates two major forces shaping wartime thinking to illuminate when people support peaceful compromise. We argue that survival and injustice are two crucial and often competing mindsets that shape how individuals understand and navigate violent conflicts. Civilians exhibiting an injustice-oriented mindset focus more on the objectives of their collective identity group, developing wartime attitudes out of concern for in-group grievances and goals. In contrast, civilians with a survival-based mindset concentrate on the concrete dangers war poses to themselves and their loved ones. To explore these ideas, we fielded two waves of a pre-registered survey in wartime Ukraine in the summer of 2022 and spring of 2023. [R, abr.]
75.6173 KOEHLER, Daniel —
This article explores potential vulnerability factors for extreme right radicalization of Special Operation Forces (SOF) and Special Weapons and Tactics (S.W.A.T.) personnel in Western countries. Drawing on inquiry commission reports regarding extreme right behavior or ethical misconduct by six elite units from four countries (Germany, Canada, Australia, the US), this article argues that a lack of diversity in gender and ethnicity, elite warrior subcultures, echo chamber effects, and cognitive rigidity can become vulnerability factors for extreme-right radicalization. Further, the need for targeted resilience among SOF and S.W.A.T. units designed to counter such processes is highlighted. [R]
75.6174 KOOS, Agnes Katalin —
By the time communism collapsed in East Europe, there were several signs of backlash to liberal democracy worldwide. By the 2010s the interpretation soured into an experience of widespread democratic backsliding. The literature on these phenomena exploded, and by the early 2020s, some datasets were also created. This paper summarizes the main trends of contemporary views about populism and de-democratization and defends three claims that have abundant empirical support from the new datasets. The claims themselves are rooted in 21st century political science and many-century-old philosophical traditions. (1) Populism is not simply anti-pluralism, and not the negative end of a pluralism-populism continuum; (2) types of populism vary in history and also with the “host” ideology; the current democratic backsliding is associated with right-wing populism; and (3) people’s experience of equality in their country affects their receptivity to populist and anti-pluralist appeals. [R, abr.]
75.6175 KOOS, Carlo ; TRAUNMÜLLER, Richard —
A common understanding emphasizes the destructive effects of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) on social cohesion and community life. Stressing the agency of survivors, we present an alternative argument. Our theory predicts that survivors seek to counteract the stigma attached to CRSV by contributing to the community in the form of civic engagement. Drawing on three original surveys from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Liberia, and Sri Lanka and relying on list experiments to reduce underreporting bias, we find that survivors of CRSV indeed show increased levels of civic engagement. This civic effect is consistent across the three contexts and very likely causal. We also rule out an alternative mechanism based on posttraumatic growth and dispel concerns that increased civic engagement comes at the expense of decreased intergroup relations. However, looking at sex differences, our results are more sobering. While in line with our prediction, they do not support the optimistic notion that survivors’ mobilization results in female empowerment and the closing of existing gender gaps in civic behavior. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of CRSV, the legacy of violent conflict, and the gendered nature of politics. [R]
75.6176 KOPROWSKI, Samantha ; BENNER, Amy ; SANBONMATSU, Kira —
Most Americans believe there is too much money in politics and are sympathetic to reform. Using nationally representative survey data, we study how the public views the likelihood that members of Congress (MCs) will support reforms to reduce the influence of the wealthy. The public’s beliefs about reform may have implications for candidates’ fundraising strategies. Because women are underrepresented in politics and may face campaign finance barriers, the reform debate may have unique implications for them: to the extent that women are associated with reform, they may face a dilemma with regard to what fundraising strategies they can employ. We propose that individuals will draw on gender, party, and race/ethnicity in their expectations about which MCs are most reform-minded. [R]
75.6177 KORKMAZ, Seren Selvin —
This paper explores the role of opposition parties within the context of global democratic erosion, with a focus on Turkey. It investigates the multifaceted role of opposition actors in the process of autocratisation, challenging conventional portrayals of them as mere victims or resilient forces. Drawing on a comprehensive analysis of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), spanning the critical period of 2002-2022 under the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), this research uncovers how opposition strategies have evolved in response to changing political dynamics. The paper introduces two new concepts, rigid opposition and flexible opposition, to elucidate the adaptive nature of opposition strategies in the face of autocratisation. It underscores the transition of the CHP from a rigid stance, characterised by identity-based polarisation, to a more flexible approach, involving strategic alliances and inclusive discourse. This transformation is not a binary success–failure paradigm but rather a complex adaptation with inherent risks. While flexibility is crucial to limit autocratisation, its potential pitfalls carry the risks of contributing to autocratisation and the dilution of party identity. [R]
75.6178 KOSS, Michael —
This article aims to explain the deviant German case of an early and comprehensive regulation of party donations (combining a high level of transparency and incentives for small donations). Given the limited explanatory power of economic and institutional factors, the article emphasises the causal role of ideas for a policy stabilisation which occurred after 1993. A process-tracing analysis suggests that the 1983-1993 reform period was characterised by a conflict of ideas. During this conflict, ideas regarding undisclosed donations as an anti-democratic interference with democratic political competition came to prevail over ideas regarding all donations as a necessary condition for democratic competition irrespective of their regulation. The key actors in this conflict were, on the one hand, the new Green party which resuscitated the idea of donations being potentially antidemocratic and, on the other hand, the Constitutional Court which ultimately endorsed this ideational legacy promoted by the Greens. After 1993, donations in Germany came to be accepted as a necessary evil whose anti-democratic potential had to be limited by transparency obligations and incentives for small donations. The findings presented here suggest that policymakers need to link attempts to regulate party donations to ideational legacies (if available) to successfully tackle political corruption. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6338]
75.6179 KREUZER, Marcus ; NEELY, Runa —
Sweden’s adoption of proportional representation (PR) is interesting because it involved static structural and institutional factors, well captured by variance-based left-threat thesis, and four temporal factors — sequencing, timing, historical change, and duration — that historical case studies highlight. We integrate these two sets of factors. We fuse the more static, temporally homogeneous world created by the left-threat thesis, that is well suited to explain cross-sectional variations, with the more dynamic, temporally heterogenous world presumed by the case studies that is attuned to temporal processes. It illustrates how comparative historical analysis (CHA) can translate temporal anomalies into generalizable temporal mechanisms and how nested analysis, together with causal graphs, provide helpful tools for updating theories. We ultimately employ an abductive approach that evaluates evidence also for its inductive potential to generate new, more test-worthy hypotheses. [R, abr.]
75.6180 KRISHNAMURTHY, Arvind ; BRAM, Curtis —
A long-standing line of research attributes criminal legal policy outcomes in America to policy attitudes held by the public. For these scholars, one possible mechanism driving this relationship is a punitive public electing punitive politicians. This article presents new evidence demonstrating that citizens’ criminal legal policy attitudes do not directly translate into their electoral choices. We use three conjoint experiments to demonstrate this disjunction. Our first two experiments demonstrate agreement about which classes of offenders are more deserving of release. This agreement generally holds for Democrats, Republicans, and respondents at all levels of racial resentment. However, when respondents were asked to choose between hypothetical legislative candidates promising to release these same classes of offenders, the consensus breaks down. In a hypothetical electoral context, partisan and racial resentment-based divisions intensify. [R, abr.]
75.6181 KUBIN, Emily ; SIKORSKI, Christian von ; GRAY, Kurt —
People seem willing to censor disagreeable political and moral ideas. Five studies explore why people engage in political censorship and test a potential route to decreasing censorship. While Americans report being generally supportive of free speech and against censorship (Study 1), we find that people censor material that seems harmful and false (Study 2), which are often ideas from political opponents (Study 3). Building on work demonstrating the perceived truth of harmful experiences (i.e., experiences of victimization), we test an experience-sharing intervention to reduce censorship. Among college students, the intervention indirectly decreased students’ willingness to censor controversial campus speakers’ ideas, through reducing beliefs that these speakers were sharing harmful and false ideas related to gun policy (Study 4). We also find benefits of sharing harmful experiences related to the abortion debate. Americans were less willing to censor and report the social media posts of opponents who base their views on experiences of victimization rather than scientific findings (Study 5). [R]
75.6182 KÜPPERS, Roni —
Despite extensive research on rising populism, we still know little about the relation between populist politics and how ordinary citizens engage with, and act upon, the identities that populism mobilises. I develop an inductive approach that moves from a focus on populism to a broader exploration of peoplehood, and from a variable-centred to a person-centred approach employing Latent Class Analysis. The results indicate attitudes towards peoplehood can be grouped into 6 major conceptions across Western Europe, and that support for populism is concentrated among citizens who hold particular conceptions of peoplehood, offering insight into the ideas of the people that underlie support for populism. These findings show peoplehood is a useful theoretical framework for understanding collective belonging, and that it can help to grasp more comprehensively the social grounds of contemporary populism. [R, abr.]
75.6183 KUTTAY, Waqas ; MAJID, Iymon —
There is an ongoing debate about whether higher turnout is related to proor anti-incumbency sentiment. Literature from developed electoral democracies has successfully established this relationship. In an electoral democracy like India, no conclusive evidence exists to show a pattern or relationship between higher turnout and incumbency advantage/disadvantage. Locating our analysis within such debates, this article focuses on elections in Kashmir. Due to the conflict and armed insurgency in the region, voter turnout not only takes a different meaning but is influenced by these factors. Besides delving deeper into what voter turnout means in Kashmir in the recent past, the question we are also interested in is if voter turnout benefits any political party/group. More specifically, we tackle the debate on lower turnout and incumbency advantage in Kashmir. [R, abr.]
75.6184 LACOUTURE, Matthew T. —
There is widespread agreement in social movement research that successful mobilization requires gathering large numbers in public spaces. But what happens when repressive states close public spaces off to protests and activists lack the capacity to win them from state control? This article utilizes a case study of state workers’ movements in Jordan in the run-up to the 2011 uprisings to demonstrate how activists can mobilize under repressive conditions by seeking out less conventional spaces. Specifically, workers may be able to access state spaces associated with public employment (e.g., state ministries and public schools). I argue that these spaces can serve as sheltering spaces for protestors to engage in early movement-building activities and as performative spaces to generate political support needed to expand into more exposed spaces. Overall, this research contributes to understanding contentious politics in politically repressive settings by identifying a middle ground between covert resistance and mass public demonstrations. [R]
75.5789 LARNER, Jac M. ; THORP, Joshua R. —
This study explores the impact of vulnerability appeals during the COVID-19 pandemic using a nationally representative, preregistered survey experiment (N = 4,087) conducted in mid-2021. We explore whether providing citizens with information about the vulnerability of ethnic minority and disabled citizens to COVID-19 fosters empathy and increased support for behavioral restrictions. We observe minimal statistically significant or substantive effects, although the presence of subtle effects cannot be entirely ruled out. We identify some limited indications that individuals with disabilities exhibit increased support for restrictions when exposed to information about the vulnerability of disabled people to COVID-19, but these effects are inconsistent. Therefore, our findings provide limited evidence to confirm or rule out that using vulnerability appeals alone is effective for influencing public attitudes toward behavioral restrictions. The findings point toward avenues for future research, including a closer examination of heterogeneous responses to public health messaging among population subgroups. [R]
75.6185 LE MENS, Gaël ; GALLEGO, Aina —
We use instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4, Llama 3, MiXtral, or Aya to position political texts within policy and ideological spaces. We ask an LLM where a tweet or a sentence of a political text stands on the focal dimension and take the average of the LLM responses to position political actors such as US Senators, or longer texts such as UK party manifestos or EU policy speeches given in 10 different languages. The correlations between the position estimates obtained with the best LLMs and benchmarks based on text coding by experts, crowdworkers, or roll call votes exceed .90. This approach is generally more accurate than the positions obtained with supervised classifiers trained on large amounts of research data. Using instruction-tuned LLMs to position texts in policy and ideological spaces is fast, cost-efficient, reliable, and reproducible (in the case of open LLMs) even if the texts are short and written in different languages. We conclude with cautionary notes about the need for empirical validation. [R]
75.6186 LEE, Seonghui —
During the first 2 years of the coronavirus pandemic, over 150 countries had scheduled elections, but approximately half of them had to be postponed due to the pandemic. Why were some elections postponed while others were not? Despite its impact on the election calendar and democratic accountability, election postponement has received surprisingly little scholarly attention. I investigate the conditions under which elections are more likely to be delayed. Utilizing a comprehensive cross-national dataset encompassing election schedules worldwide, COVID-19-related factors, and other societal and institutional characteristics, I provide the first systematic examination of election postponement during the first 2 years of the pandemic. The empirical analysis reveals that national elections are less likely to be postponed compared to second-order elections such as subnational and special elections. [R, abr.]
75.6187 LEMOLI, Giacomo —
This paper studies the relationship between ethnic media, which produce content in a minority language, and the success of ethnic parties. I argue that, by embedding cultural traits in entertainment products, media outlets can shape the salience of group identity, which helps parties’ mobilization efforts. I test this argument in the case of the Basque Country where, in the late phase of the Franco regime, an independent radio station operated by local clergy promoted the revival of regional language. Using contemporary, archival, and survey data, I show that exposure to ethnic radio increased support for new radical independentist parties and that the effect is driven by formerly Spanish-speaking municipalities with low historical support for Basque nationalism. I also show that radio increased bilingualism in subsequent generations and contributed to the bundling of ethnic identity revival and radical political ideology during the democratic transition. [R]
75.6188 LEON-RANERO, José M. ; CHEDDADI EL HADDAD, Zakariae —
In recent years, the Spanish right has experienced an increase in electoral competition between the centre-right and the radical right. Despite the increase in the number of studies on Vox, there is no research focused exclusively on the Spanish right-wing youth vote. Thus, the article, noting the different weight of the young electorate and the different levels of concern for different issues between the two electorates, attempts to validate, through a quantitative empirical design based on individual-level data, the influence of economic, cultural, social and political concerns on the electoral preference of young people on the Spanish right. It is empirically demonstrated that among young people, political concerns increase the probability of voting for Vox over PP, while economic concerns increase the probability of support for the centre-right over the radical right. The contribution, in the current context of intense political polarisation and attitudinal change among Spanish youth, has implications for understanding the current state of competition on the Spanish right. [R]
75.6189 LÉVESQUE, Félix, et al. —
The municipal elections of 2021 in Quebec City were characterized by strong competition among five candidates and the salience of issues pertaining to the construction of a tramway and the building of a third highway link between the city and its South Shore. Therefore, this election provides an optimal setting for studying electoral behavior at the municipal level, particularly issue voting, an area that has received very little attention thus far in academic research. We argue that these two issues have become symbolic issues and have been exploited as wedge issues by mayoral candidate Jean-François Gosselin. Using multivariate analysis, we test the relationship between support for the two transit projects and voting intention. Our results show that voters’ attitudes toward these two issues are strongly correlated with their vote choice and suggest a strong match between municipal voting and voting at the provincial and federal levels, at least when issue voting is at play. [R]
75.6190 LEWIS, Jacob S. —
The rise of populist politics around the world has been accompanied by a startling growth of mainstream conspiracy theorizing and antisemitism. Yet, while conspiracy, antisemitism, and populist politics seem to be related, we have little information about the causal relationships between them. Plausible explanations can link any of these three factors to one another in any configuration of causal relationships. I employ a series of experimental methods to begin teasing out these relationships while sketching the contours of the broader societal story. Drawing from multiple pre-registered survey experiments conducted in the US and the UK, I find strong mutually reinforcing relationships between antisemitism and conspiracy theorizing. [R, abr.]
75.6191 LISI, Marco —
During the Great Recession, radical left parties in Portugal intensified their opposition to Europe and public opinion became increasingly eurosceptic. Nevertheless, the cooperation among leftist parties following the 2015 elections, which brought eurosceptic parties into power, coincided with a rise in positive attitudes towards the EU. This paper aims to explain this puzzle by examining party stances and citizens’ views on Europe before and after the crisis. It will be argued that the economic crisis had mainly a temporary impact on party and popular euroscepticism. Both ideological and strategic considerations help explain euroscepticism, but the Great Recession did not structurally alter party-voter alignments and the dynamics of the party system. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6303]
75.6192 LOWE, Christopher Sebastian ; SKALLI-HOUSSEINI, Yannis —
This article analyses the Bruges Group, a prominent Eurosceptic organisation in 1990s Britain. By examining the Group’s actions, publications, and financing, the article demonstrates that its role in the history of British Euroscepticism was more significant than previously suggested, as most literature has focused primarily on the Group’s role within the transnational ‘neoliberal thought collective’. The article addresses why the Group shifted from advocating Thatcherite liberal market reform of the EEC to supporting EU withdrawal, and why it aligned with the Eurosceptic faction within the Conservative Party rather than becoming an external Eurosceptic protest party. It argues that these transitions were driven by domestic political and strategic considerations, rather than ideological evolutions within the neoliberal thought collective. As recent scholarship on neoliberalism has suggested, this reveals an important contrapuntal relationship between neoliberal intellectuals and the political and economic context in which they have to operate. [R]
75.6193 LUGG, Andrew ; SCOTT, Zachary —
From where does discontent against globalization originate? Current explanations emphasize material conditions and the emergence of globalization-skeptical parties. We argue that party-affiliated factions play a critical but underappreciated role. Such factions provide foundational support for elite appeals, acting entrepreneurially to construct new narratives that are later invoked by elites. We test this by studying a unique case: the “globalist” insult on Twitter. We find that “globalist” mentions co-occur with hashtags and terms associated with right-wing conspiracies, “alt-right” media figures, and Donald Trump. We further find that the most consistent correlate of the “globalist” insult is its use by the alt-right media organization Breitbart, not by traditional political elites or in response to changes in economic conditions. The results suggest that a conceptualization of political parties as organizers of political conflict helps make sense of antiglobalization political movements. [R, abr.]
75.6194 LUNDQUIST, Sanna —
This paper explores the relationship between individual environmental priorities and national economic conditions, addressing the commonly held belief that individuals prioritize economic concerns over environmental concerns during economic downturns. Introducing the novel concept of attitudinal decoupling, this study empirically analyzes the relationship between environmental priorities and economic conditions using a comprehensive dataset from five waves of the World Values Survey (1994-2022) encompassing 52 countries of varying economic statuses. The findings generally support the existence of a tradeoff that suggests that environmental priorities waver when economic conditions decline. However, the results also highlight significant variations across different countries and periods, with some instances showing increased environmental concern during economic decline. Additionally, the study found that political orientation significantly influences this relationship, particularly in high-income countries. These insights show that the interplay between economic and environmental priorities is complex and nuanced. [R]
75.6195 MACDONALD, David —
Women have long been underrepresented in American politics. This is evidenced by women being less likely to run for and hold elected office. Existing scholarship largely focuses on explaining why women are less politically ambitious than their male counterparts but pays less attention to why some women do run for office. To this end, I focus on the potential role of labor union membership. I argue that labor unions can foster political ambition and increase ordinary people’s likelihood of running for office. I test this among women in the American mass public, primarily with survey data from the 2010-22 Cooperative Election Study (CES). Overall, I find that labor union membership is significantly associated with women’s likelihood of running for office. I also find that this robust relationship is unlikely to be driven by self-selection or omitted variable biases. Overall, these findings help us to better understand the sources of political ambition, illustrate a viable potential pathway to boost women’s likelihood of seeking elected office, and underscore the political consequences of organized labor. [R]
75.6196 MAGALHÃES, Leandro De, et al. —
Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used in the social sciences to estimate causal effects from observational data. Following recent methodological advances, scholars can choose from various RDD estimators for point estimation and inference. This decision is mainly guided by theoretical results on optimality and Monte Carlo simulations because of a paucity of research on the performance of the different estimators in recovering real-world experimental benchmarks. Leveraging exact ties in personal votes in local elections in Colombia and Finland, which are resolved by a random lottery, we assess the performance of various estimators featuring different polynomial degrees, bias-correction methods, optimal bandwidths, and approaches to statistical inference. Using re-running and re-election as outcomes, we document only minor differences in the performance of the various implementation approaches when the conditional expectation function (CEF) of the outcomes in the vicinity of the discontinuity is close to linear. When approximating the curvature of the CEF is more challenging, bias-corrected and robust inference with coverageerror-rate-optimal bandwidths comes closer to the experimental benchmark than more widely used alternative implementations. [R]
75.6197 MAGNUSDOTTIR, Gunnhildur Lily ; WIDENGÅRD, Marie —
This article examines the nuanced dynamics of green leadership within the European Union (EU), focusing on Sweden. Sweden has long been heralded as an exemplar of environmental and climate leadership within the European Union as well as a frontrunner in the adoption of green policies, notably in the realms of bioenergy and biofuels. However, its leadership stance has come under scrutiny due to the inherent conflicts within green initiatives, often referred to as ‘green-green dilemmas’ that arise when environmental actions, despite their sustainable intentions, clash over competing interests. Drawing on a variety of sources we delve into the complexities surrounding Sweden’s green leadership. The article highlights how Sweden’s enthusiastic endorsement of bioenergy and biofuels, integral to its climate action strategy, has sparked debates and raised questions about Sweden´s perceived green leadership within the European Union. Sweden’s approach to navigating these conflicts, alongside its efforts to negotiate and balance economic interests with environmental ambitions, offers a compelling insight into the challenges of maintaining green leadership in the face of conflicting green agendas. [R]
75.6198 MANOR, Aylon —
The ideal of publicity plays an important role in contemporary legal and political philosophy. Yet, to date, it has not been brought to bear on the question of voting method choice. This paper aims to fix this. I argue that voting method publicity is a well-motivated requirement which reveals tradeoffs inherent to democracy between procedural and epistemic equality. I further explore the implications of voting method publicity to the normative status of plurality voting and its possible alternatives. [R]
75.6199 MANSON, Paul ; GRONKE, Paul —
Local election administrators stand at a key intersection in the US election system managing registration, ballot access, early and Election Day voting, and reporting election outcomes. The elections policy landscape within which these administrators and their offices operate has rapidly changed over the past quarter century, yet because of the complex and decentralized nature of elections, there has been not much progress made in applying theories of policy stability and change to election administration. This research begins to rectify this using “policyscape” and “policy drift” as two lenses to conceptualize stability and change in election administration. The research shows that policy drift helps to explain a disconnect between the current service expectations from these offices and existing models of staffing and workforce development, shown from an inductive analysis of in-depth interviews conducted with election officials in the State of Oregon. [R, abr.]
75.6200 MANWARING, Rob ; FOLEY, Emily —
In 2022, after nearly a decade in opposition, the Australian Labor Party under the leadership of Anthony Albanese won office. The Albanese government faced a raft of challenges in government with tough economic conditions and post Covid-19 recovery, all in the context of stubbornly high levels of inflation. This article considers the achievements, complexities and contradictions of the Albanese government. During this term of office, the Albanese government is not without achievement, often resorting to a range of notable, if technocratic and incremental, responses to a wide range of structural problems. This is an instructive case in understanding how centre-left parties seek to renew and update their historic missions. Drawing upon the work of Michael Freeden, the argument set out here is that the Albanese Labor government is a striking case of ‘thin’ or ‘new’ labourism. At its most coherent, the ALP has sought to reinvigorate a specific social democratic tradition, yet this has entailed a suite of policy tradeoffs and its electoral support remains narrow and brittle. The Australian case might well follow the Ardern Labour government in New Zealand, in offering only limited pathways of reinvention for the centre-left. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6289]
75.6201 MARGALIT, Yotam ; RAVIV, Shir ; SOLODOCH, Omer —
The electoral success of right-wing populist parties is often attributed to disaffection among certain voters. But while economic explanations for this disaffection are theoretically clear and quantifiable, explanations centered on cultural factors offer accounts that are more vague and harder to evaluate empirically. We address this problem by distinguishing theoretically between five different “storylines” about the cultural origins of populism and then test them using extensive data from Europe and the US. Our analysis indicates that concerns about ethnocultural change induced by immigration are central to understanding the populist vote; so is rural resentment and status anxiety, but to a lesser extent. In contrast, explanations centered on community disintegration or an intergenerational values divide are pertinent in only specific cases. [R, abr.]
75.6202 MARINO, Bruno ; MARTOCCHIA DIODATI, Nicola ; VERZI-CHELLI, Luca —
The personalisation of politics has been widely studied in the past few decades, especially in Western Europe, from several viewpoints, from the electoral to the party-centered one, from the governmental to the media-related one. Nonetheless, very few contributions have focused on the determinants of personalization, even if this latter process might be linked to more general — and much relevant — societal, institutional, or party-related phenomena. In this article, we aim to fill this gap by proposing a novel framework to explain the evolution of the impact of the personalization of politics — i.e., the fact that personalization has had a stronger or weaker influence — in Western Europe between the mid-1990s and the mid-2010s. We depart from cross-time and cross-country data collected in the first expert survey on the personalization of politics (the PoPES) and investigate the effect of three sets of possible determinants: societal changes (the decrease in the strength of the class cleavage or the diffusion of TV), institutional factors (the presence of presidential elections or personal-vote-driving electoral systems’ features), and party-related changes (the organizational decline of Western European parties). Regression analyses show that almost none of these determinants have influenced personalization’s impact in Western Europe. [R]
75.6203 MARTIN, Nicole ; SOBOLEWSKA, Maria ; BEGUM, Neema —
The Brexit referendum was a seismic electoral event with far-reaching consequences, but ethnic minority voters’ decisions in the referendum remain under-researched. We examine what differentiates ethnic minority Remainers from Leavers in two large social surveys. Ethnic minority voters were divided along ethnocentric and generational lines, similarly to majority voters. Those who were born overseas were more likely to support Brexit; meanwhile, younger minorities and those born in the UK were more supportive of Remain, like their young white British counterparts. We show that anti-immigrant attitudes, including views on Turkey joining the EU, mattered for ethnic minority Leavers, as well as sovereignty concerns. Our results reveal that the factors that led minorities to vote to leave the EU were not altogether different from those identified for white British voters. We argue the concept of left behind can include minorities, and research must therefore consider what role whiteness plays in this concept. [R]
75.6204 MAST, Jason L. ; ŠUBER, Daniel —
This article introduces a theory of societalized politics to investigate crisis events in the German civil sphere between 2015 and 2024, and to proffer an answer to the disputed question of the preconditions that facilitated the rapid rise of right-wing populism in the German context. Drawing on civil sphere and societalization theory, the article specifies the foundational cultural elements, or binary cultural codes (BCCs), upon which German political elites crafted meso-level narratives to contest and manage strains in the civil sphere. Through an analysis of communicative and regulative institutions’ responses to the arrival of refugees in 2015, and the publication of the Correctiv.org report and the backlash protests it inspired in 2024, the article charts the rise of the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), and explains its success as due in part to its leaders’ capacities to represent themselves and their supporters as embodying the BCC’s civil democratic signifiers. [R]
75.6205 MATTHEWS, Neil —
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was home to some of the most vocal and steadfast supporters of the Presidency of Donald J. Trump. Drawing on a diverse range of sources, including interviews with those supporters, this paper accounts for the good relations between the DUP and Trump. That account highlights several commonalities, including their ‘Orangeism’, their stance on Brexit, their illiberalism, and their populism. As well as its nature, we also assess Trump’s impact on the behaviour and development of the DUP. We show how the Trump presidency fuelled a populist revival within the party, providing in the process an important update to existing accounts of its modernisation journey. That revival, we conclude, encourages greater cognisance of the DUP’s populist credentials and ongoing scrutiny of the factional tensions within it, tied as those are to the prospects of political unionism. [R]
75.6206 MCCONAGHY, Kieran —
This article assesses the importance of an often-ignored vigilante group; the Catholic Ex-Servicemen’s Association. 1969 saw the mobilisation of Irish Catholics in Northern Ireland who had served in the British Army as part of ad-hoc vigilante groups defending nationalist areas. These groups protected Catholic neighbourhoods from loyalist assault and from incursion by the security forces who were increasingly seen as a hostile force. In 1971, this ex-service personnel formed an all-Ireland organisation: the Catholic Ex-Servicemen’s Association. At their peak in the early 1970s, they claimed a membership of 17,000 and an ability to mobilise a further 20,000 in a ‘doomsday scenario’. CESA’s prominence waned by the late 1970s. CESA has received very little academic attention. This article aims to ameliorate that, supplementing the scant secondary literature with newspaper and archival material to account for the emergence of the Catholic Ex-Servicemen’s Association, analysing their importance in shaping the trajectory of the Troubles and saying something of the complexities of identity in the nationalist community in the early period of the conflict. [R]
75.6207 McMANUS, Ian P. ; FALKENBACH, Michelle —
Social Democratic parties have been in crisis across Europe in recent decades. The once dominant party family has struggled to adapt to the structural challenges of post-industrialization, changes in its core constituency, and increased political competition from alternative parties. This article analyzes the welfare chauvinist shift embraced by some Social Democratic parties to assess its viability as an electoral strategy in response to this changing political landscape and far-right party challenges. The article analyzes individual-level data from 26 European countries from successive European Voter Survey rounds for 2014 and 2019. This article tests the relationship between voter positions on government intervention, redistribution, and immigration and support for Social Democratic parties. Issue salience data is also examined to identify the importance granted by the public to different concerns over time. Despite claims that welfare chauvinist approaches represent a path forward for Social Democrats, this research finds that this strategy is not a broad winning formula. Rather there are incentives for Social Democrats to return to their egalitarian and progressive roots on key socioeconomic and sociocultural issues. [R]
75.6208 MECHKOVA, Valeriya, et al. —
Political engagement is deeply enmeshed with online activity. However, there has been a lack of publicly available cross-country datasets enabling researchers and policymakers to understand how politics and digital space intersect. This paper introduces the Digital Society Project (DSP), which aims to provide systematic, cross-country measurement of political institutions and behavior that manifest online or are affected by online activity. Using the Varieties of Democracy Project infrastructure, DSP provides annual global data from 2000 to 2021. The dataset features 35 indicators measuring online censorship, politicization of social media, coordinated information operations, foreign influence, monitoring of domestic politics, and regime cyber capacity. This article introduces the DSP data collection effort, overviews the resulting dataset, and validates key indicators by conducting a series of diagnostic tests. We demonstrate that the DSP dataset aligns with extant datasets measuring internet freedom and offers expanded coverage across countries and over time. We analyze two case studies, walking through how the DSP data can be used to extend existing work on China to generalize this case to other contexts, and examining in depth the case of Ethiopia, which differs the most between DSP and Freedom House’s Freedom on the Net. [R]
75.6209 MEIER, Anna A. —
Calls for governments to proscribe white supremacist actors as ‘terrorists’ have increased in recent years, yet little attention has been paid to whether proscription of such actors ‘works’ and what consequences may arise from expanding counterterrorism apparatuses in this way. What happens when states bring violent white supremacist organisations under the counterterrorism umbrella? Using original data on Germany’s 70-year practice of banning white supremacists as ‘anti-constitutional’, this article uses the vehicle of terrorist proscription to explore the political work done by treating white supremacists as ‘terrorists’ in a legal, not only a discursive, sense. I argue that placing security efforts against white supremacists alongside questions of constitutionality and democracy invokes larger debates about German values and identity, rendering visible the role of white supremacy in constructing the German nation. Banning white supremacist organisations, then, becomes a policy instrument that provides a veneer of combating violence without confronting the embedded nature of the ideology underlying that violence. My findings that bans are overwhelmingly symbolic and offer little in the way of deeper political change have implications not only for German security policy, but also for cross-national studies of terrorist proscription and combating white supremacy in all of its manifestations. [R]
75.6210 MEINKE, Scott R. —
How does the media report on Senate procedure, and how does reporting affect the public’s views of process and policy? This paper examines both parts of this question in the context of the Senate filibuster. Using new data on coverage of failed cloture motions over two decades, I show that news accounts typically explained these votes in generalized ways that obscured minority obstruction or equated the vote with simple defeat. These tendencies were more pronounced in television news, and they were more common as the “60-vote Senate” became the norm. I then use a survey experiment to test the opinion effects of differences in filibuster reporting. The findings demonstrate that the press does not consistently provide voters with a clear understanding of the Senate’s supermajoritarian processes, and that this reporting has consequences for voters’ judgments. [R, abr.]
75.6211 MILES JOYCE, Renanah ; FORTNA, Virginia Page —
Extremism and terrorism are thought to go hand in hand in civil wars. Yet do they? Are rebel groups with more extreme goals more likely than moderate ones to use terrorism, as commonly assumed? Arguments linking extremism to terrorism are often circular: groups are tagged as extremist because they do extreme things. Our article addresses this problem by articulating a novel conceptualization of extremism as the distance of group goals from the status quo. Understanding the relationship between what groups want and how they try to achieve it has obvious theoretical and policy implications. We theorize mechanisms that might connect extremist goals to terrorism and use new data on rebel group aims in civil wars from 1970 to 2013 to examine the empirical relationship between extremism and terrorism in a nontautological way. [R, abr.]
75.6212 MOAWAD, Jad ; OESCH, Daniel —
The public debate portrays the middle class as the big losers in recent decades, while people above and below seemingly fared better in terms of employment and income growth. This narrative is both conceptually and empirically flawed. Based on the Luxembourg Income Study 1980-2020, we show for France, Germany, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the US that middle-class employment expanded, while the working class shrank. The middle class also experienced consistently larger income gains than the working class over the past four decades. The disposable real incomes of working-class households in France, Germany or the US grew by less than half a percent per year, compared to 1% or more for the middle class. Cohort analysis also shows that the promise of doing better than one’s parents held for the middle class, but vanished for the working class. [R]
75.6213 MOISE, Alexandru D. ; WANG, Chendi —
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, with its implications for European security, has intensified the need to understand European public opinion on potential conflict strategies. This study delves into the formation of these opinions, focusing on utilitarian factors like economic interests and threat perception, and ideological elements such as political orientation, national identity and perceptions of Russia and Ukraine. Utilising a two-wave panel survey from five European Union (EU) countries, our findings underscore that ideological factors, especially trust in Russia and Ukraine are paramount in shaping support for escalation or de-escalation. Economic concerns, threat perceptions, right-wing ideologies and strong national identities also play significant roles. This research not only illuminates European sentiment on the war in Ukraine but also enriches broader discussions on the determinants of public opinion in international conflicts. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6426]
75.6214 MONGRAIN, Philippe, et al. —
According to the “miracle of aggregation” principle, in the absence of systematic biases, errors in individual judgments within a population should cancel each other out and lead to a correct decision at the aggregate level. This article explores potential individual- and group-level correlates of the accuracy of citizens’ electoral expectations and investigates how potential markers of political sophistication — namely, educational attainment and political interest — could be used to improve upon the raw aggregation of citizens’ forecasts using massive survey datasets collected during six Canadian national and provincial election campaigns between 2011 and 2022 (n = 279,003). We find that while educational attainment and interest increase the probability of a correct forecast at the individual level, delegating the forecasting task based on these variables does not necessarily lead to improvements in the accuracy of aggregate-level predictions. At the group level, we fail to uncover any evidence that sociological or informational diversity increases forecasting accuracy. [R]
75.6215 MONTERO, Sergio —
The quality of democratic representation hinges on the alternatives available to voters. In many democracies, party leaders exercise considerable control over the electoral supply, particularly through the formation of electoral coalitions. Despite their prevalence, little is known about the tradeoffs these coalitions impose on prospective partners, how they influence other strategic choices by competing parties, or their ultimate impact on election outcomes. I develop and estimate a model of electoral competition in which (i) parties can form coalitions to coordinate their candidate nominations and (ii) parties invest in campaign activities in support of their candidates. The model is estimated using data from the 2012 Mexican Chamber of Deputies election, which offers district-level variation in coalition formation. A comparison of election outcomes under counterfactual coalition scenarios uncovers equilibrium campaign savings as well as significant electoral gains benefiting weaker partners disproportionately. [R]
75.6216 MOON, Chanki ; TRAVAGLINO, Giovanni A. —
While past research has found an association between perceived political injustice and diminished trust in institutions, the pathways connecting these constructs remain underexplored. In this study, we proposed a sequential indirect-effect model, from perceived injustice to feelings of disrespect and ultimately lower trust, via the dual pathways of anger against institutions and constructive patriotism. We tested our model using samples from four countries, namely South Korea, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States (NTotal = 2502). Results revealed a simple indirect effect of injustice via perceived personal respect. Additionally, two sequential indirect pathways emerged via anger and constructive patriotism. Specifically, individuals with higher levels of perceived personal injustice were less likely to trust institutions through decreased perceived personal respect. Moreover, perceived personal respect was associated with reduced trust via increased anger and decreased constructive patriotism. While the results were largely consistent across countries, the significance and relative strength of some of the paths exhibited variability. The findings offer insights into the psychological underpinnings of political trust across contexts. Limitations, implications of the results, and avenues for future research are discussed. [R]
75.6217 MORALES-ARILLA, Jose —
Scholars often study changes in electoral outcomes in places visited by political candidates to estimate the impact of campaign visits. However, this approach doesn’t consider biases caused by other campaign interventions that occur concurrently with visits and might directly influence election results. This article examines the local effects of Henrique Capriles Radonsky’s 2012 visits during the 2012 and 2013 presidential elections against Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. I utilize data on Capriles’ spatial priorities when allocating campaign resources. By controlling for these priorities in a difference-in-differences specification, I find that the estimated causal effect of visits on Chavista support decreases by over 80%. While the estimated effect of visits is small, they seem to facilitate the spread of persuasive information about Capriles and seem to act as substitutes for other interventions. [R]
75.6218 MOSLER, Hannes B. —
The parliamentary elections to South Korea’s 22nd National Assembly on April 10, 2024, were a classic mid-term election occurring during the five-year term of conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol, who had assumed office two years earlier. The election results reflected a clear protest vote against the conservative People Power Party (PPP), which was perceived to suffer as a result of its president’s poor government policies. This led to the opposition liberal Democratic Party (DP) securing a clear majority of seats in the National Assembly. The restrictive and exclusive electoral law ensured that the duopoly of these two dominant parties remained virtually untouched and smaller, alternative parties were systematically disadvantaged. Previous attempts, including the most recent electoral law reform, to break up this exclusive party cartel of a hostile symbiosis of conservative and liberal parties have failed. [R, abr.]
75.6219 MUFTI, Mariam ; ALI, Sameen A. Mohsin —
Based on an original data set of 384 federal ministers and 360 provincial ministers from Punjab and Sindh from 1988 till present, we examine the career movements of political elites in Pakistan. We argue that formal institutions enshrined in the constitution pertaining to federal design, the electoral and party system do not provide a complete explanation for the movement in political careers. In fact, informal institutions such as clientelism and dynasticism are far more critical drivers of career choices made by political elites. Contrary to the expectation that in a high-risk, hybrid political context we would find integrated careers, instead, our data set reveals that a majority of politicians prefer to have alternative careers at either the provincial or national level without much mobility between levels of government. [R] [See Abstr. 75.5923]
75.6220 MULDROW, Adrienne F. ; SHEARMAN, Sachiyo M. —
Consistency theory, positing that individuals process information based on preexisting attitudes, is particularly relevant in today’s polarized political climate. This study investigates the impact of political identification, demographics, and individual differences (dogmatism, authoritarianism, and symbolic racism), on liberals’ and conservatives’ agreement and endorsement tendencies toward Black Lives Matter (BLM) tweets. A diverse sample of 348 adults with equalized political ideologies evaluated tweets related to the BLM social movement on social media, providing ratings of agreement and willingness to endorse the messages. The findings reveal a positive correlation between conservatism and higher levels of dogmatism, authoritarianism, and symbolic racism. Younger age, conservatism, and higher scores on all individual differences were significant predictors of agreement with the conservative (anti-BLM) tweet. Having more education, holding liberal beliefs, and lower levels of symbolic racism were predictors of agreement with the liberal (pro-BLM) tweet. Overall, we demonstrate that factors explaining participants’ likelihood to endorse (clicking like or retweet) the conservative tweet continue to change, but the factors predicting endorsement of the liberal tweet, including the role of symbolic racism, remain consistent. The study informs academics and practitioners in understanding how various factors impact an individual’s information processing of racially conscious social movements. [R]
75.6221 MÜLLER-CREPON, Carl —
Ethnic identities around the world are deeply intertwined with modern statehood, yet the extent to which territorial governance has shaped ethnic groups is empirically unknown. I argue that governments at the national and subnational levels have incentives to bias governance in favor of large groups. The resulting disadvantages for ethnic minorities motivate their assimilation and emigration. Both gradually align ethnic groups with administrative borders. I examine the result of this process at subnational administrative borders across sub-Saharan Africa and use credibly exogenous, straight borders for causal identification. I find substantive increases in the local population share of administrative units’ predominant ethnic group at units’ borders. Powerful traditional authorities and size advantages of predominant groups increase this effect. Data on minority assimilation and migration show that both drive the shaping of ethnic groups along administrative borders. These results highlight important effects of the territorial organization of modern governance on ethnic groups. [R]
75.6222 MUNDY, Ryan —
Black, Latino, and Asian-American candidates have disproportionately ran as Democrats in the modern political era. Yet the number of nonwhite Republican candidates for US Congress reached a record high of 260 in 2022, nearly tripling the number who ran in 2016. I utilize a candidate-level dataset to provide the first account of who these nonwhite Republican candidates for Congress are, where they run, and how they fare both electorally and financially. I find that despite increases in the number of nonwhite Republicans who run for office, these candidates are not well positioned to win. In comparison to their white counterparts, nonwhite Republicans are less experienced candidates who run in unfavorable districts and raise less money. Additionally, I employ an original survey of 2022 congressional candidates and find that nonwhite Republicans report facing greater institutional and electoral hurdles than white Republicans. [R, abr.]
75.6223 NISBETT, Nicole, et al. —
This paper examines the dynamics of key competing climate policy narratives in the political sphere — normative, i.e., morally underpinned proclimate action, denial and delay of climate action and other, mostly exclusively economic or technical arguments for climate action — using data of parliamentary debates in the UK between 2017 and 2022 and interviews with politicians and civil servants for complementary computational, timeseries and qualitative analyses. We investigate the role played by major external events, focussing on pro-action climate protests, in shaping these competing dynamics, which ultimately underpin climate policy decisions. We find an increase in normative pro-climate arguments used in parliament in 2018/2019 during major climate protests, which become the dominant argument line. And while this increase slowed down during the COVID-19 pandemic, it nevertheless consolidated, reinvigorated by COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, which was also accompanied by resumed climate protests. [R, abr.]
75.6224 NYHUIS, Dominic, et al. —
There is a well-established view that exercising the voting right should be as easy as possible, as even minor hurdles can have the effect of excluding voters. In light of these debates, election officials have greatly expanded the options for convenience voting in recent decades, such as providing easier access to a mail ballot. We argue that mail ballots are a double-edged sword. While they make voting more convenient, they are also more difficult to use than in-person ballots as voters have to navigate the additional measures for ensuring the secrecy and security of the ballot. We conduct a systematic review of the European mail voting systems to identify a set of best practices for making voting by mail as easy as possible, while safeguarding the secrecy and security of the vote. [R]
75.6225 OANDO, Samwel Odhiambo —
Cosmetic attention to contextual nuances has been a major obstacle in many programmes for preventing violent extremism (PVE) in Kenya. The study highlights how donor-funded interventions often disregard cultural values and local experience by posing a subtle resistance to learn from the knowledge of local actors. The non-recognition of contextual knowledge postures a gender problem, increasing chances for systemic exclusion of African women from the knowledge production system. The paper interrogates how modern subjectivities, entrenched in contemporary interventions, exude colonial legacies in PVE. Using decolonial theory and interviews with local practitioners, the study submits that many donorfunded PVE approaches risk pushing further the voice of indigenous African women to the periphery of knowledge production. PVE interventions in the local context have an opportunity for reinforcing indigenous perspectives through a decisive decolonial strategy in the women peace and security agenda. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6286]
75.6226 OLSON, Michael P. —
The elimination of Black voting in the US South after Reconstruction is the most significant instance of democratic backsliding in American history. I use newly collected state legislative roll call data from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, consisting of more than 19,400 unique roll calls, to explore Black disfranchisement’s consequences for legislative representation. Using ideal point estimates in a panel design, I demonstrate that disfranchisement is associated with substantial changes in roll call voting. In states where competition between Democrats and Republicans structured roll call voting, disfranchisement precipitated shifts away from more-Republican roll call records. In states already dominated by Democrats before disfranchisement, disfranchisement often led to relative shifts toward the agrarian, reform wing of the Democratic Party. These results demonstrate the centrality of Black disfranchisement for the creation of the Solid South and the significant impact of Black suffrage on southern politics in the years following Reconstruction. [R]
75.6227 OMOTOLA, J. Shola —
This article examines the manifestations, platforms, and effect of fake news in Nigeria’s 2019 presidential election. Data for the study were drawn mainly from primary sources, notably the administration of questionnaires on 1300 purposively selected respondents across the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and the six geopolitical zones of the country. A total of 1294 copies of the questionnaire were returned and analysed using descriptive statistics. The findings show that the majority of the respondents (86.8%) actively engaged and consumed general news about the 2019 presidential election. Again, the majority of the respondents identified instances of fake news before, during, and after the election across the traditional and new media, but higher in the latter. Fake news negatively affected the election in many ways, notably the promotion of hate speech and violence. [R, abr.]
75.6228 OSNAT, Akirav —
The aim of this paper is to analyze the acceleration of the democratic backsliding Israel experienced between January 2023 and April 2023 during the first session of the 25th Knesset and the 37th government in Israel. We explore the factors that contributed to this process. Our goal is to determine whether there are any elements that are unique to Israel in this regard that distinguish it from other countries that have experienced such backsliding in recent years. To do so, we utilize an event history analysis based on a timeline of the actions of the members of the 37th government. The analysis shows that the four incentives that aligned together before the election of the 25th Knesset and the creation of an extreme right-wing government accelerated the backsliding of Israeli democracy. The unique factor that distinguishes Israel from other countries is the indictments of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The conclusions offer several insights for Western democracies from the Israeli case. [R]
75.6229 OTERO-HERMIDA, Paula ; GONZALEZ-URANGO, Hannia —
Businesses have traditionally been seen as reluctant participants in equality policy initiatives. However, emerging governance guidelines increasingly advocate for gender mainstreaming, encouraging active business engagement. Our research examines this potential transformation, focusing on the role of businesses adopting Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices compared to traditional equality policy actors — governments, equality organizations, and academia — within the Colombian context. Using a collaborative governance framework and participatory decision-making techniques, we identify potential role shifts toward proactivity and specific contributions from each actor group. Our findings highlight discordant mutual expectations, or “role mismatch”, and divergent perceptions within the business sector, which may undermine traditional actors. These insights emphasize the risks inherent in business participation in equality policy. By delineating contributions and clarifying self-perceptions and mutual expectations, we offer a practical approach to designing participatory processes that foster mutual recognition, trust, and shared responsibility as foundations for advancing equality policies. [R]
75.6230 ÖZDEMIR, Sina F. ; GRANENG, Kristine ; WILDE, Pieter de —
Social media offers opportunities for European Union (EU) executives to improve their precarious legitimacy. Their broad, unmediated, instant, and cheap reach allows EU executives to explain to citizens what they are doing in their own words and to learn from citizens what they want. Yet, while the potential of social media is well-known, we know very little about how EU executives use them. This study addresses this gap by analysing how EU executives legitimise themselves through strategic public communication on Twitter. Through a manual and automated content analysis of a sample of 73,413 tweets, we show how EU executives engage in ‘opinionated communication’. Appeals to output legitimacy are the single most prominent form of self-legitimation, but they are often combined with opinions, calls for input, and/or emphasis on activities. Our findings challenge the common perception that EU executives are risk-averse communicators who focus exclusively on factual output-oriented communication. [R]
75.6231 PAALGARD MUNDEN, Hanna ; MORRISON, John —
White supremacist organizations pose a serious and growing threat to democracy and public safety. This article analyzes nonideological ways in which these groups attract and maintain membership. The primary data comprises interviews with 15 former white supremacist group members. Each was asked about their experience of group participation and exit. Interview data were analyzed via thematic analysis. Five distinct themes emerged: belonging, perceived importance, empowerment, emotional intensity, and long-term psychological rewards. Based on the analysis, it is argued that group membership maintenance can be partially explained by psychologically rewarding experiences that may, for them, seem difficult to attain elsewhere. The analysis is consistent with the assumptions of the good lives model, a strength-based approach to the rehabilitation of criminal offenders. This model provides a theoretical way forward in the understanding and prevention of (re)engagement through the promotion of prosocial ways of achieving the psychological rewards that are important to the individual and that membership of white supremacy groups offers. [R]
75.6232 PAL, Felix —
Presenting a world-first data set of 2,831 constitutive organizations of history’s largest far-right interorganizational network, this article presents a new explanation for far-right normalization: organizational diffusion. Providing, for the first time, empirical evidence of the large network characteristics of the Indian far right, this article paints a picture of what this network actually looks like, how far it has spread, and what explains its success. In doing so, this explanation unearths a far-right strategy of covert civil society expansion that has largely evaded the party-focused extant study of global far-right electoral mobilization. Identifying this strategy of organizational diffusion, this article argues that it produces three effects that produce broad, flexible, and durable mobilizations: segmented representation, reputational control, and leadership accommodation. Organizational diffusion, present in far-right mobilizations as diverse as Ma Ba Tha, Nippon Kaigi, and the Thai military, presents an important far-right mobilizing tool that exhorts scholars to refocus on covert civil society expansion as a key mechanism of far-right normalization. [R]
75.6233 PALOMINO UREÑA, Inés ; DEL ORBE AYALA, Kenia R. —
This research analyses the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the United States of America elections held in November 2020. We analyse the 29th of September and the 22nd of October debates in which candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden participated. Content analysis is used as the research technique. The frequency and time spent by each candidate on the Covid-19 topic are measured. In addition, it is analysed the content of the speeches in general and the communication and discursive strategies employed by both candidates. Both verbal and non-verbal language and the elements linked to the staging of the debates are analysed too. Among other issues, the results show the importance of the pandemic in the debates, Biden explicitly took a pro-scientific stance, while Trump leaned towards a sceptical stance, and it was found that the communicative styles and strategies of both candidates have differed throughout the events analysed. [R]
75.6234 PANG, M. Rosemary —
Many studies have discussed discontent with corruption against authoritarian as well as democratic regimes, but there are few systematic explanations of why corruption breeds more anti-government protest in some autocracies compared to others. Institutionalized ruling parties, I posit, reduce corruption-bred protest via three potential mechanisms: institutionalized parties make government corruption more predictable, thus reducing anti-government grievance; second, these parties distribute the benefits of corruption to a larger group of citizens; and finally, these parties channel citizens’ dissent into party-led policy changes. Using global data from 1955 to 2010 and a new measure of authoritarian ruling party institutionalization, this article finds that while corruption increases anti-regime protest in autocracies, ruling party institutionalization mitigates the effect of corruption. [R]
75.6235 PANTERA, Dafni Kalatzi —
How does global integration affect environmental activism? I develop a theoretical argument which highlights that global integration’s effect is conditional on political ideology. Countries’ integration in the world society leads to diffusion of environmental attitudes. However, people’s political ideology restrains this positive effect. The assumed incompatibility between economic prosperity and environmental reform exerts a strong influence on attitudes of right-leaning individuals, who end up acting less for promoting environmental protection. I test this argument using multilevel model techniques on data from 35 European countries from 1980 to 2020. The results support my argument and show that global integration has an effect only on left-leaning individuals. In light of these results, the paper offers insights on the expansion of the environmental divide — ‘action gap’ — among individuals with different ideologies. The study also highlights how concerns about environmental consequences are still linked to an ideological commitment to laissez-faire economics. [R]
75.6236 PARAMESWARAN, Giri ; SEKERES, Gabriel ; GOLDBLATT, Haya —
Slippery slope arguments — the idea that otherwise beneficial reforms should be rejected lest they beget further undesirable ones — are ubiquitous in political discourse. We provide a learning-based policy-feedback mechanism to explain why slippery slope dynamics arise. Additionally, we provide conditions under which, in equilibrium, sophisticated agents will successfully manipulate policy to either induce or prevent a slippery slope dynamic. [R]
75.6237 PAULIS, Emilien ; POSPIESZNA, Paulina —
In a global context of democratic challenges such as dissatisfaction and social polarization, research on Western European democracies suggests that deliberative democracy instruments like deliberative mini-publics (DMPs) may provide a solution with their positive impact on participants’ attitudes towards politics and democracy. Despite the proliferation of citizens’ assemblies, especially locally, little is known about DMPs in newer democracies in Central and Eastern Europe, and it is uncertain whether the findings about the virtues of deliberation would hold. This study assesses the impact of a mini-public in Poland, focusing on the Citizens’ Assembly on Energy Poverty, the country’s first national-level deliberative initiative. Poland has faced heightened political dissatisfaction due to eight years of right-wing populist governance and the rise of radical ideologies, raising questions about deliberation’s impact on dissatisfied and radical participants. Our results confirm the positive impact of deliberation on participants, improving their percepetion of knowledge, political interest, efficacy, and support for mini-publics. However, we find no significant differences of deliberation between dissatisfied, radical participants, and other groups highlighting the universal benefits of deliberation. These inconclusive findings may be due to a common recruitment bias in DMPs, specifically enrolling politically engaged citizens, thus limiting the potential for a learning curve. [R]
75.6238 PAULISSEN, Toine —
Studies on the Irish referendum experience have generally accepted that political parties play a fundamental role in the direct democratic process. While this is rarely problematised, parties often campaign in referendums in order to steer them towards outcomes that are strategically beneficial. Contemporary research on Irish referendums has delved into how parties shape their campaigns to achieve these goals, but a more preliminary question is still to be addressed: to what extent do parties participate in referendum campaigns? This paper attempts to do so by examining campaign expenditure, which offers a concrete quantitative indicator for party engagement vis-à-vis referendums. Departing from theory on party behaviour and referendum instrumentalization, the article takes into account Irish regulations on campaign finance before offering a descriptive and explorative comparison of the expenditure of Irish political parties in recent referendum campaigns. Several patterns within the data are then discussed in light of potential influential factors identified in previous scholarly work. Results suggest that a referendum’s topic and its salience in the public sphere, as well as a party’s financial resources and government status, could explain party behaviour in Irish referendum campaigns, and a set of congruent hypotheses for future research are formulated in the conclusion. [R]
75.6240 PERELLÓ, Lucas ; NAVIA, Patricio —
Students of Latin American politics have identified the economy and public security as relevant determinants of voting behaviour. This article extends those insights to Central America. We use a decade of AmericasBarometer data from 2008 to 2018 to study whether voters in six Central American countries prioritise economic or public security issues when casting votes for the incumbent candidate or party. The results reveal that positive economic perceptions — retrospective national outlook in particular — help explain rewarding incumbents. In turn, the perception of insecurity, more than crime victimisation, is related to punishing incumbents. Therefore, the evidence suggests Central Americans behave like bankers and sheriffs when casting votes, although economic views weigh more than public security perceptions. The results indicate strikingly similar accountability patterns across countries. [R]
75.6241 PIAZZA, James A. ; O’ROURKE, Lauren —
Previous research has found that individuals harboring hostile sexist attitudes are more likely to support the use of political violence. In this study, we examine this relationship further. We theorize that the impact of hostile sexism on support for political violence is mediated through two mutually reinforcing factors: social dominance orientation and political illiberalism. We test this argument using an original survey we administered to over 1,400 subjects in the United States. We employ two operationalizations of individuals’ support for political violence: support in the abstract and support for specific acts of political violence. We find that individuals who exhibit hostile sexism are substantially more likely to support political violence, both abstract and specific. Moreover, we find that both social dominance orientation and political illiberalism together mediate 64.9% of the effect of hostile sexism on support for political violence in the abstract and 80.5% of the effect on support for specific acts of political violence. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings. [R]
75.6242 PICCIO, Daniela R. —
This article presents a longitudinal comparative analysis of the regulation of private funding to political parties in 15 West European democracies and explores how these rules have changed under the most recent wave of political finance reforms. In particular, the article questions whether a deregulation of political finance regulation may be in sight, with a downsizing of the role of the state in the political finance domain. While evidence does not support a clear movement toward deregulation, the article shows that the move from private to public subsidization may not be that irreversible as it seemed and that private funding to political parties is likely to become more prominent in the near future also in Europe. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6338]
75.6243 PIERZGALSKI, Michał ; GÓRECKI, Maciej A. ; STĘPIEŃ, Paweł —
Do voters participate more under proportional than plurality systems? While existing research typically suggests PR systems exhibit higher turnout than majoritarian systems, several studies indicate a less clear-cut relationship between proportionality and voter-turnout. Using a regression discontinuity design, we analyze constituency-level data from Polish municipal elections (1998-2010) to compare three electoral systems: singlemember district plurality (SMDP), multi-member district plurality (MMDP), and open-list proportional representation (OLPR). This institutional setting allows us to examine both electoral formula and district magnitude effects through two transitions: from SMDP to OLPR (changing both formula and magnitude) and from MMDP to OLPR (changing primarily formula). We find that PR increases turnout by 3-4 percentage points compared to SMDP but shows no significant differences compared to MMDP. These contrasting effects suggest that district magnitude, not just electoral formula, shapes voter participation. [R, abr.]
75.6244 POLJAK, Željko ; RUSSELL, Annelise —
Studies have shown that citizens’ engagement on social media drives politicians to adapt the issues they discuss online. However, for representative democracy to function effectively, politicians must not only discuss these issues but also act on them. This paper explores whether higher citizens’ engagement on social media shapes the issues politicians address online and leads to substantive agenda responsiveness, such as proposing legislation or raising issues in parliament. To do this, we examined over 370,000 Facebook posts by more than 350 politicians in Australia, Belgium, and the US. Our results indicate that higher citizens’ engagement on politicians’ own social media regarding an issue increases the likelihood of politicians promoting concrete legislative or parliamentary actions related to that issue, regardless of the issue’s salience. These findings highlight social media’s role in informing and motivating politicians’ agenda responsiveness. [R, abr.]
75.6245 POLLOZHANI, Lura ; BIEBER, Florian —
The Western Balkans have experienced several competitive authoritarian regimes in the past two decades. The article examines the strategies of opposition movements and parties in challenging these regimes, focusing on protests. It argues that institutional responses to competitive authoritarian regimes, such as pre-election coalitions, get-out-the-vote campaigns, and similar strategies, have failed to challenge regimes without extra-institutional approaches, such as mass protests. However, not all protests have resulted in effectively challenging competitive authoritarianism. Focusing on Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, we examine cooperation and coordination between civil protest movements and opposition parties. We explore protests that have helped lead to government change and those that have been unable to and analyse them in terms of their ability to bring together parties and civil society groups and their link to institutional responses. [R]
75.6246 POMANTEII, Michael J. —
The evolution of state election laws continues to impact the ease with which citizens can vote. This study updates the Cost of Voting Index (COVI) for the 2024 US presidential election by analyzing recent legislation that affects voting accessibility across the 50 states. The COVI measures the time and effort required to vote, encompassing criteria such as registration requirements, voter identification laws, early voting availability, and absentee voting procedures. To keep pace with the changing nature of election laws, I include one new voting law to construct this year’s index: a requirement for multiple signatures on absentee ballot envelopes. In the 2024 rankings, Oregon remains the most accessible state for voters, while Mississippi is now the most restrictive. [R, abr.]
75.6435 POUREBRAHIMI, Arash, et al. —
Using a dyadic approach to explore voting behavior of European Union (EU) member states in the Council of the EU, we investigate the similarity in voting behavior of governments on three policy dimensions: left-right, authoritarian-libertarian, and pro-/anti EU. These policy dimensions are of interest also in other contexts, such as decision-making in international or regional organizations other than the EU. Our dependent variable is based on a new data collection covering the time 2010-2021. Our analysis, employing random effects binary and ordinal logistic regression applied to relations between EU states, confirms that larger distances of governments represented in the Council on these policy dimensions combined are related to larger distances of their vote choices. Larger distances affecting different vote choices within dyads are also confirmed for the pro-/anti EU policy dimension. [R, abr.]
75.6247 PRAKASH DAS, Om —
This study employs Jean Baudrillard’s theories of hyper-reality and simulacra to examine media representations during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It argues that media coverage often constructs a simulated version of events rather than accurately reflecting reality. Through content analysis, the research explores how media from both sides disrupts the dissemination of information. The study highlights the media’s role as a constructor of reality, in line with Baudrillard’s assertion that modern media blurs the distinction between representation and the reality of war. The analysis shows that hyper-real portrayals evoke emotional responses, manipulate perceptions of military actions, and create spectacles that may desensitize audiences to human suffering. [R]
75.6248 PRICE, Charlie W. —
In recent years, the concept of fantasy has been afforded increased attention in psychoanalytic IR. While this scholarship does address bodies and fantasy, the appeal of fantasy to material bodies remains critically understudied. This paper contributes to this scholarship through a novel analysis of the Nordic Resistance Movement, arguing that the material body is a core part of its ideological discourse, and the latter cannot be understood without the former. This paper develops a framework that uses Jean-François Lyotard’s concept of the figure to understand how fantasies relate to material bodies and uses this to offer a novel theorisation of the NRM. Through an analysis of the NRM’s fantasy of the Nordic Nation and, what I label, the Figure of the Norseman, this paper shows how collective ideological fantasies become grounded in present bodies to make such fantasies intelligible. Therefore, the paper demonstrates that, to understand an ideological fantasy, we must understand how it appeals to the body. [R]
75.6249 PROSSER, Annayah M. B., et al. —
Moralized minority actors can play important roles in social change processes by rejecting majority social norms and modeling alternative societal pathways. However, being a minority actor can be difficult, often resulting in stigma, derogation, and hostility from the majority group. For actions intrinsically linked with daily life (e.g., eating), such social obstacles might become so great that individuals acting alone experience activist burnout’ and social isolation, and may stop pursuing social change altogether. Event-based interventions are a promising (yet currently understudied) avenue for ameliorating these negative consequences and maintaining minority-driven social change. Through on-site field interviews (N = 20), we explore how attending an identity-centering mass gathering (“The Vegan Campout”) acts to validate and empower a minority group (vegans) seeking social change. We show how the event functioned as a space where vegan identity, food, and action were centered and celebrated, in stark contrast to vegans’ experiences of a majority meat-eating society, where they often experienced negativity. Experiencing a ‘temporary social majority’ context provided important respite for vegans to gain strength, rekindle their vegan identities, and (re)affirm their commitment to activism. Our findings provide insight into the benefits of identity-centering events for sustaining social change efforts among moralized minority groups. [R]
75.6250 PROSSER, Christopher —
The UK General Election of 4 May 2024 produced a Labour landslide and the worst ever result for the Conservatives. The transfer of seats between the two parties belies a more complicated picture in terms of votes, which resulted in the most fragmented party system in British history. Reform UK, the Greens and Plaid Cymru all saw their highest ever general election vote shares and seats. The Liberal Democrats won their largest ever number of seats. Non-party candidates won their highest number of seats since 1945. The Scottish National Party crashed to their worst performance since the 2014 independence referendum. The election was dominated by questions of party competence and plans for the economy, immigration, healthcare, and the environment. The most striking feature of the outcome was the persistence of electoral alignments that emerged in the wake of Brexit — with the vast majority of British voters supporting a party that lined up with their stance towards the European Union — despite big changes in overall support for individual parties and the near absence of Brexit as an election issue. [R]
75.6251 PYSCHNY, Anastasia ; BLOQUET, Calixte —
‘At the end of this day, I cannot pretend that nothing has happened’, said French President Emmanuel Macron after the far-right Rassemblement National emerged as the clear winner of the European Parliament elections on June 9, 2024. He dissolved the National Assembly, giving the parties little time to explore possible electoral alliances and put forward their candidates. Although the ‘Republican Front’ was able to prevent the far-right from winning the elections, the outcome of the second round of voting had far-reaching consequences for the French political system: despite the left-wing electoral alliance winning the elections, Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier as prime minister, who led a minority government composed mainly of republicans and centrists until the end of 2024. On December 4, 2024, the new government was ousted. [R, abr.]
75.6252 RAMOS-GONZÁLEZ, Jorge ; ORTIZ, Pablo ; LLAMAZARES, Iván —
In recent decades, radical right-wing parties have gained significant prominence in Europe, attracting considerable academic attention. The electoral support for these parties has been linked to ideological principles such as nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. However, the connection between populist attitudes and voting for the radical right has been insufficiently addressed, either due to the lack of available empirical material or because populism has been taken for granted within this party family. To fill this gap this paper analyses the role of populist attitudes in the electoral support for the radical right in five West European countries (France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Germany). The results reveal that, with the exception of Italy, populist attitudes play a significant role in the explanation of voting for the radical right. They also confirm the importance of nationalism in general and nativist attitudes in particular. By contrast, other orientations play a minor and often inconsistent across-countries role in the decision to vote for the radical right. [R]
75.6253 RASHKOVA, Ekaterina R. ; SU, Yen-Pin —
Since 2020, the world has been officially battling a COVID-19 pandemic. Even countries with established crisis management plans and years of experience in handling political and economic crises, have been shaken. In the midst of the pandemic’s rampant effects, how politicians handle the crisis is of crucial importance to the preservation, development, and protection of nations in the future. Who is in power determines not only the stability, but the political course of countries. Hence, what happens to the party system as a result of an exogenous shock is a question we need to answer. Importantly, we have little evidence on how the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic affected party competition. Building on the party systems literature, we examine the effect of the pandemic on electoral volatility, party system size, and the number of new party contestants. We hypothesise that, in countries where the incumbent government handles the crisis less effectively, electoral volatility tends to be higher, party system size tends to be larger, and more new parties tend to enter the electoral race. Drawing on evidence from national parliamentary elections held by electoral democracies from March 2020 to April 2022, the empirical results support our hypothesis. [R]
75.6254 RAZAFINDRAKOTO, Mireille ; ROUBAUD, François ; WACHSBERGER, Jean-Michel —
Elites are central to institutions and organisations, given that they are shaped and controlled by individuals and social groups or coalitions whose most influential players are elites. Based on a unique and representative survey of hyper-elites in Madagascar, this article explores the specificity of political elite trajectories and investigates their interconnections with other elite segments. First, on the methodological front, the challenges raised by elite surveys and the methods and approaches used to meet them are presented. How can the elites be identified? How can they be investigated? How can we measure their power? Second, on the analytical front, the article shows that political elites constitute a relatively closed and highly integrated world. They occupy a central position in the global network of elites, which enables them to play a necessary bridging role between elites occupying other positions of power and control much of what circulates within elite spheres. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6056]
75.6255 REAL-DATO, José ; SOJKA, Aleksandra —
Euroscepticism in Spain has so far constituted a marginal phenomenon. A decade of political and economic crises could, however, be setting the stage for rising Spanish opposition to the European Union (EU). By analysing recent survey data and party manifestos, we verify to what extent this might be the case. We find that both public and party-based euroscepticism has gained ground in the traditionally euro-optimist Spanish context over the period under study. We argue, however, that such critical stances towards the EU do not constitute a fundamental turn against the process of integration in Spain. Rather, the country has witnessed the rise of ‘faulty’ euroscepticism rooted in the domestic political crisis. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6303]
75.6256 REHER, Stefanie —
Despite important advances in the rights of disabled people, stigma and prejudice remain widespread. Meanwhile, disabled political representatives are few and far between. This raises the question: do voters discriminate against disabled candidates? This study uses conjoint experiments in the US and the UK to show that candidates with physical or sensory impairments are preferred by voters on the left, whereas voters on the right are more likely to vote for nondisabled candidates. However, these effects are almost entirely due to voters’ perceptions of disabled candidates as more left-wing. When perceived ideology is held constant or candidates’ party affiliation is known, candidate disability does not affect the vote choice among right-wing voters. Left-wing voters still reward left-wing disabled candidates for representing under-represented groups. [R, abr.]
75.6257 REISENBICHLER, Alexander ; KOENIG, Pascal D. —
Little is known about voters’ demands in response to rising house prices. We argue that voters’ house-price perceptions and housing policy preferences depend on countries’ differing economic institutions. In the UK’s liberal welfare and credit regimes, we expect voters to view house-price growth as a comparatively positive sign for the economy and show little demand for policies restraining prices. In Germany’s generous welfare and restrictive credit regimes, we expect voters to view house-price appreciation with more skepticism and demand policies restraining prices. First, through a custom survey, we experimentally demonstrate that British homeowners regard house-price growth as a sign of economic health, while German homeowners and renters from both countries do not. Second, we find that German voters, both homeowners and renters, support policies restraining house prices more so than their British equivalents. Our findings suggest that similar types of voters have different housing attitudes in differing institutional contexts. [R]
75.6258 ROBERTSON, Mary —
The Green New Deal (GND) has emerged as a crucial progressive agenda for sustainability transition, but there have been few attempts to develop it into a concrete programme for government. This paper considers one such attempt — the GND proposals put forth by the British Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn — and how it tackled three key challenges faced by the broader GND agenda: its reliance on the state, its relationship with capital, and its Western centrism. The paper argues that these challenges gave rise to tensions within Labour’s proposals: treating the state both as an instrument and as an object of change, ambivalence towards capitalism as an economic system and struggling to reconcile the competing forces of nationalism and internationalism. By examining these challenges and Labour’s efforts to overcome them, this study provides valuable insights into the messy politics of enacting Green New Deal visions. [R]
75.6259 RODRIGUES SANCHES, Edalina ; KARTALIS, Yani ; SIACHI-WENA, Hangala —
Institutionalised party systems are said to foster stronger party allegiances and fewer switches. However, this expectation is called into question when we observe the case of South Africa. Despite being characterised by a highly institutionalised dominant party system as well as party-centred electoral and candidate selection rules, South Africa has experienced frequent episodes of floor-crossing over time. This article advances an analytical framework that links elites’ vote-seeking and office-seeking incentives to party switching and party system functioning. It posits that as elites strive for (re)selection and (re-)election, they will depart from smaller to larger parties, and this ultimately reinforces the party system of the day. Utilising an original dataset of 5,230 candidates to the National Assembly and the provincial legislatures of South Africa between 1999 and 2019, the study charts the overall rate of party switching and tests hypotheses postulating the effect of party size and candidates’ electoral marginality on the likelihood of switching parties. The analyses reveal that candidates from smaller parties and those who failed to be (re-)elected by the narrowest margin are more likely to switch parties in the next election. Additionally, most candidates who switched parties tended to move to parties that fared better than their original party in the next election; and they switched from parties that either did worse or stayed the same. But we did not find a strong correlation linking party performance to switches. The study highlights the role of intra-party competition in patterns of elite migration and reveals the importance of linking elite behaviour to party system functioning. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6056]
75.6260 RORI, Lamprini —
The 2023 double parliamentary elections marked an overwhelming victory for New Democracy (ND) and the electoral collapse of the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA). Having governed through a series of crises — such as the pandemic, the refugee crisis, Greek-Turkish tensions, and the war in Ukraine — ND managed to renew its parliamentary majority in the snap election of June. Whereas ND’s victory was anticipated, though higher than expected, SYRIZA’s magnitude of defeat was unexpected: it experienced a 13.7-point decline from its 2019 result, losing by 20 percentage points to ND. A predominant party system began to emerge for the first time since the 1974 transition to democracy, while the imbalance between the first and second parties and the opposition’s fragmentation undermined the potential for a constructive counterforce. In June 2023 and for the first time in the post-crisis context, all variations of the far-right gained parliamentary representation. Interestingly, the far-right seems to thrive not only in times of financial crisis but also during periods of political and economic stability. In contrast to the centrifugal competition of the financial crisis, electoral competition in May and June was centripetal, with the largest concentration of voters positioned at the centre of the ideological spectrum. [R]
75.6261 ROSSET, Jan ; POLTIER, Jérémie ; PONTUSSON, Jonas —
Recent studies puzzle over why it is that democratically elected governments have not responded to rising inequality by engaging in more redistribution. While some scholars argue that low- and middle-income citizens have not responded to rising inequality in the way we would expect, others argue that policymakers are not responsive to the demands of these citizens. We argue that both solutions to the “lack-of-redistribution puzzle” leave something to be desired and that variation across policy domains sheds new light on the issues at stake in this debate. Based on an original 2019 survey replicating questions asked by the European Social Survey in 2008, we show that support for progressive income taxation and more egalitarian unemployment insurance has increased in most West European countries since 2008. Tax policy has moved in the same direction as public opinion, but unemployment policy has not. We conclude that public opinion should be conceived as a constraint on policymakers motivated by political-economy considerations rather than a driver of policy developments. [R]
75.6262 ROSTBØLL, Christian F. —
Bringing empirical studies and democratic theory into dialogue, I argue that polarization cannot be understood as a single phenomenon that can be evaluated in one way. Moreover, its different kinds affect different parts of the democratic system in distinct ways. First, we must distinguish between the degree of polarization in a given context and the different kinds of polarization at play. Second, we must consider whether people have good reasons for their polarizing behavior or whether it is entirely irrational. If people have good reasons for their polarizing behavior, the problem lies elsewhere than in polarization itself. Third, we must distinguish between the content of polarized opinions and the process of opinion formation. Both can be assessed with democratic criteria, but they raise different questions. Finally, we must differentiate between different sites of polarization: civil society, election campaigns, and legislatures. [R, abr.]
75.6263 RUSSO, Luana ; SCHULZE BROCK, Paula —
What is the role of elite-level inter-party strategies in promoting or reducing negative affective evaluations of citizens? This article explores this puzzle by focusing on the decision of mainstream parties to exclude or cooperate with populist radical right-wing parties (PRRPs) in Western European countries. The analysis is based on CSES cross-national data and the LISS Dutch panel data merged with the record on whether PRRPs are subject to a cordon sanitaire or (in)formally cooperate with mainstream parties in a government coalition. The findings suggest that political exclusion fuels loathing for PRRPs among mainstream party supporters, while cooperation reduces dislike of PRRPs both among supporters of PRRP coalition partners and left-wing voters. Distinguishing between informal and formal coalitions, the cross-national data shows that only formal cooperation has a significant effect. However, the longitudinal Dutch data shows a temporary decrease of dislike also during informal cooperation. [R]
75.6264 RÜTTERS, Peter —
Since the European elections in 2014, the number of parties elected to the EP in Germany has more than doubled. The removal of the 5-percent threshold in electoral law gave seven small(est) parties with an increasing number of MEPs (2024: 12) continuously access to the EP. At the same time, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) gained also access to the EP with a growing number of seats in the EP (2024: 15 seats); finally, the Sahra Wagenknecht Bündnis (BSW), founded a few months before the election, entered Parliament in 2024 with six MEPs. As a result, the six established parties (CDU, CSU, SPD, Grüne, FDP, Linke) together only account for around two thirds of the 96 MEPs (2019: 79.2 percent). [R, abr.]
75.6265 SÁ, Ana Lúcia ; KILUMBO, Olivio —
Angola is governed under a presidential system characterised by a weakly institutionalised parliament ruled by the MPLA liberation movement since independence. UNITA, the largest opposition party in parliament, is also a liberation movement and former belligerent in the protracted Angolan civil war. Despite facing an uneven playing field, UNITA has seen its share of parliamentary seats increase in successive post-war elections. This makes it a relevant case study to understand patterns of elite formation and political representation more broadly. This article examines the composition of UNITA parliamentary elites in Angola in post-civil war legislatures, and how UNITA members of parliament (MPs) perceive representation tasks and engage in constituency-focused activities. We do so through a longitudinal study of post-civil war legislatures (from 2008, 2012, 2017 and 2022), drawing on new biographical data and interviews with MPs. We argue that, following the transition from rebel movement to political party, parliament became an arena in which UNITA was able to achieve a nationwide reach by integrating MPs with diverse backgrounds and by engaging with constituents. Additionally, while institutional rules favour national over local representation, MPs seem to invest in and value links with constituents. The study highlights how nationwide recruitment and connections with constituents contribute to elite formation. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6056]
75.6266 SAHN, Alexander —
Is public policy responsive to demographically and ideologically unrepresentative comments given at public meetings? I investigate this possibility using a novel data set of over 40,000 comments made at the San Francisco Planning Commission between 1998 and 2021, matched to information about proposed developments discussed in hearings and administrative data on commenters. I document four stylized facts: First, commenters at public meetings are unrepresentative of the public along racial, gender, age, and homeownership lines; second, distance to the proposed development predicts commenting behavior, but only among those in opposition; third, commission votes are correlated with commenters’ preferences; finally, the alignment of White commenters (vs. other racial groups) and neighborhood group representatives and the general public (vs. other interest groups) better predict project approvals. [R]
75.6267 SALOMO, Katja ; HELBIG, Marcel ; MARQUARDT, Susanne —
We examine how Germany’s largest wave of immigration in recent history contributed to the election of a radical right-wing party (AfD) to the German parliament for the first time since the end of World War II. We focus on urban voters and use unique data from 34 of Germany’s largest cities, divided into 1,905 neighborhoods, covering 2014-2017. We find that local poverty strengthens the AfD, while greater local immigrant presence weakens AfD support. Immigrants are more concentrated in poorer neighborhoods, but crucially, local poverty does not undermine the effect of immigrant presence. Immigrant concentration in poorer neighborhoods indirectly increases AfD support in advantaged neighborhoods. The latter offer fewer opportunities for intergroup contact and are less likely to have prior meaningful history of immigration, rendering their residents more vulnerable to acculturative stress. Indeed, very low prior shares of immigrants predict higher AfD support when the local share of immigrants suddenly increases. [R]
75.6268 SANDOVAL-ROJAS, Nathalia —
This article examines how previously excluded social actors transform democratic institutions that offer limited, subordinated inclusion. It introduces the concept of “conversion from below,” which refers to endogenous institutional change driven by historically marginalized groups. By comparing three indigenous mobilizations aimed at broadening Free, Prior, and Informed Consultation and Consent (FPIC), the article demonstrates that institutional changes from below occur when there is ambiguity in the definition of the institution; this ambiguity can be exploited in favorable venues and when groups can signal their disruptive power. This study enhances our understanding of endogenous institutional change and sheds light on the dynamics of engagement and resistance of newly included groups with inclusionary institutions in Latin America. [R]
75.6269 SANTIA, Martina ; BAUER, Nichole M. ; GONZALEZ, Sylvia —
Women of color are running for political office at higher rates in recent US elections, and existing scholarship is only starting to investigate the communication strategies of women of color and how voters respond to their campaign messages. We shed light on how women of color use emotions in campaign messages and how voters respond to these emotional appeals. We employ an analysis of campaign advertising data across multiple election years from the Wesleyan Media Project to show that both white women and women of color rely heavily on enthusiasm in their campaign messages, even though white women use anger appeals at higher rates than women of color. We complement these results with an original survey-based experiment to examine how emotional appeals affect voting preferences for women of color candidates. [R, abr.]
75.6270 SCHAEFFER, Merlin ; KAS, Judith —
The “integration paradox” posits that seemingly well-established immigrants and their descendants tend to report more discrimination compared to their more marginalized peers. This study investigates one potential mechanism for this paradox, namely, the increasing awareness of their group’s enduring ethno-racial minority status. Through a survey experiment with approximately 1000 randomly sampled immigrants and their descendants in Germany, this study provides the first causal evidence for this awareness mechanism. Participants were randomly assigned to read either a news article highlighting ethno-racial hiring discrimination in the German labor market or an unrelated news article on astrophysics. Our findings demonstrate that exposure to the discrimination-related article elicits a significant increase in reports of discrimination experienced by members of the groups with whom minorities identify, but also in self-reported personal experiences of discrimination. This suggests that increased awareness can alter how minorities frame their personal experiences or encourage them to disclose instances of discrimination that they would have previously kept private. The study further reveals that heightened awareness does not translate into a corresponding increase in political demands for improved antidiscrimination policy. Finally, a third experimental condition dispels concerns that news reports downplaying ethno-racial labor market penalties could stifle minorities’ propensity to report discrimination experiences. [R]
75.6271 SCHUSTER, Johannes ; FOBEL, Lea ; KOLLECK, Nina —
A strong democratic culture is crucial for maintaining a functioning democracy. Young people’s perspectives on political measures play an important role here, as they reveal the tendencies of the population and are challenged, especially in times of crisis. The evaluation of political measures is closely linked to sociodemographic factors. In order to be able to prevent the development of opinions among young people that could potentially jeopardise democracy at an early stage, it is necessary to obtain a differentiated picture of political attitudes. Based on social disintegration theory, in a recent study we analysed young people’s attitudes to political measures in response to the war in Ukraine. We focused on answering the following questions: What types of young people can be identified with regard to their assessment of political measures in response to the war in Ukraine? What is the connection with social disparities? Analyses of the data from our representative survey of 3240 participants (aged 16-29 years) point to four types: the Diplomatic, the All-rounder, the Militant, and the National. Our study also shows that education, gender, and feelings of social belonging play an important role in the categorisation of types. The results illustrate the challenges of citizenship education in times of crisis and can contribute to the development of targeted political education programmes to better manage times of crisis. [R]
75.6272 SCULLY, Marc —
This article explores the post-Brexit increase in applications for Irish passports through descent, and in so doing, seeks to develop a social/political psychology of diasporic citizenship. It draws on a focus group and 10 individual interviews, all conducted in 2018-19; participants were all based in England and had applied, or were in the process of applying, for Irish passports through descent in the aftermath of Brexit. Analysis, using perspectives from discursive psychology, attended to both rhetoric and narratives of citizenship in participants’ talk about the application process and identification with Ireland and Irishness. Participants draw on discourses of both effortfulness and essentialism in working up claims to Irish identity, with effortfulness in acquiring transnational knowledge being particularly central in rhetorically legitimizing less secure claims. The analysis thus builds on previous political psychological work highlighting the centrality of “effortfulness” to contemporary constructions of citizenship, particularly in the United Kingdom (Anderson & Gibson, 2020; Gibson, 2009). It is furthermore suggested that explicitly labeled “noneffortfulness” can act as a rhetorical marker of belonging. The implications of these findings for concepts of diasporic citizenship and debates around jus soli versus jus sanguinis citizenship in both Ireland and Britain are discussed. [R]
75.6273 SEGERS, Iris B. —
The Dutch parliamentary far right has been considered a relatively liberal outlier to the gender politics of the European far right, yet recent years have shown the increasing anti-gender mobilization of the party Forum voor Democratie (FvD). Based on a theoretical framework of anti-gender mobilization, the far right, and politics of knowledge, this article explores anti-gender politics as a form of alternative knowledge production through a qualitative content analysis of the FvD’s online presence. Through applying Verloo’s concept of the episteme, this article’s findings show that the FvD mobilizes against epistemic institutions by claiming they disseminate dangerous knowledge about gender, which they argue presents a fundamental threat to society, captured in conspiratorial terms like “transgender ideology” and “woke.” Simultaneously, the party promotes illiberal gender politics through the establishment of alternative epistemic institutions. This article shows how far-right actors may promote anti-gender politics by presenting themselves as “alternative intellectuals” who seek to carve out an epistemic niche alongside the mainstream. [R]
75.6274 SEIJO BOADO, Ismael ; GÓMEZ SOLANO, Lorién —
The aim of this work is to delve into the two main theoretical sources behind the radical right’s “obsession” with the “cultural battle”: the Nouvelle Droite and the American Alt-Right. Thus, this article will examine their metapolitical proposal focusing on their conceptualization of hegemony, departing from Antonio Gramsci’s original idea and aligning more closely with the populist approaches of Ernesto Laclau. The focus will be on overcoming a decadent modernity and reviving Western civilization through an ethnodifferentialist proposal. The article is divided into two parts. In the first part, we will analyze the metapolitical proposal of the Nouvelle Droite, which introduces the concept coined by Alain de Benoist. After examining its core ideas, we will proceed to break down its ideological-cultural strategy contrasted with the ideas of Gramsci and Laclau. In the second part, we will analyze the Alt-Right, whose strategy directly draws from the metapolitical approaches of the Nouvelle Droite, albeit with a tactic focused on the Internet and social networks. [R]
75.6275 SEKERDEJ, Kinga —
In 2021-2022, the European Commission held the Conference on the Future of Europe, aiming to provide a platform for EU citizens to voice their visions for the Union’s future. Simultaneously, concerns about the rise of populism and mis(dis)information have grown, significantly affecting the daily lives of Europeans and challenging democracy. This prompts the question: do cohesive populist visions for Europe exist? This article delves into a subset of populist narratives that express distrust in mainstream knowledge production frameworks and explores their connection to depictions of Europe through discourse analysis of 24 publicly available online documents opposing vaccination and 5G technology. It is argued that these narratives can be understood through science-related populism (Mede, N. G., & Schäfer, M. S. (2020). Science-related populism: Conceptualizing populist demands toward science. Public Understanding of Science, 29(5), 473-491). The analysed narratives consistently depict an antagonistic dichotomy between the noble people and corrupt elites, and they perform crisis in the face of the perceived dominance of illegitimate elites. However, both science and the EU do not unequivocally align with the contested elites. Their position in this dichotomous vision is influenced by the perceived morality of the scientists and a nationalist framework for interpreting Europe. [R]
75.6276 SELENICA, Ervjola —
This paper analyses national and international interventions on preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) and radicalisation in Kosovo and their underpinning rationales. [It examined] how a country with a Muslim majority is targeted by P/CVE and counter-radicalisation policies. Furthermore, it [examines] whether these policies are informed by an understanding of violent extremism and radicalisation as underpinned by Islamic extremism and, if so, how they tackle and interact with the question of Islam in Kosovo. The article has found that P/CVE and counter-radicalisa-tion policies in Kosovo are mainly externally driven and funded, rest upon the same preventative, anticipatory logic that has characterised similar policies implemented in EU member states, are informed by an understanding of violent extremism and radicalisation as ideological processes fuelled by radical Islam, and encompass an all-societal approach combining hard and soft measures of prevention. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 75.6286]
75.6277 SERNA-ORTEGA, Álvaro ; CASTILLERO-OSTIO, Elizabet ; MORENO-CABANILLAS, Andrea —
In recent years, social media platforms, particularly X (Twitter), have become battlegrounds for political ideologies. Notably, certain European authorities have chosen to share anti-feminist messages on this platform. To effectively counter these discourses, understanding their construction is crucial. Thus, this research aims to analyse how far-right representatives in the European Parliament address feminism and gender equality on X. Using a mixed and exploratory approach, nearly 1.1 million messages were evaluated, revealing limited engagement by MEPs in gender-related topics. Five main discursive patterns were identified, offering valuable insights for developing targeted communication strategies to challenge these argumentative lines. Additionally, a connection was found between the negativity of tweets and their reach and engagement. [R]
75.6278 SEVERIN-NIELSEN, Majbritt K. ; CLEMENT, Sanne Lund —
Social media has provided politicians new opportunities to engage in a continuous dialogue with citizens. While politicians did not take advantage of this potential in their early social media usage, scholars have suggested that politicians utilize social media more for interactions with citizens in the 2020s. Against this backdrop, the current study updates the existing knowledge on the opportunities and barriers politicians experience for interacting with citizens on social media in a time when knowledge and skills to use social media have been built up within the political system. Based on an interview study among Danish parliamentary members in 2021 (n = 18), a most-likely case of online interactions, we find that politicians utilize the platforms for indirect forms of interactions but only to a limited extent engage in direct conversations on social media due to limited resources and experiences of online incivility. [R, abr.]
75.6279 SGUAZZINI, Mattia ; MAZZIOTTI DI CELSO, Matteo —
Although the armed forces’ social media narratives on operations can significantly influence public support, the rationale behind their decision-making process remains unclear. Drawing on civil–military relations theory, we explain the logic behind military decision-making in crafting these narratives. We argue that the strategic narratives of the armed forces are deeply influenced by their relationship with society. The nature of this relationship determines how the military balances two essential imperatives: promoting the armed forces’ representation within the parent society and highlighting the distinct characteristics of the armed forces. This balance influences the extent to which operations are narrated (circulation or non-circulation) within the overall narration and how they are presented. We test our argument by analysing the Italian Army’s Twitter communication. Tweets are analysed using an unsupervised LDA topic model on the entire corpus, manual coding of a subset on international missions and a mixed-method analysis. Our article contributes to the scholarship on public opinion and war, using an original methodology to analyse the strategic narratives of an overlooked actor. It also contributes to civil–military relations, suggesting an innovative method for studying the relationship between the armed forces and society. [R]
75.6280 SHARANI, Samer ; ÇELIK, Ayşe Betül —
Civil war can change the narratives of a collective Self and damage some of its ontological security conditions, such as continuity, self-esteem, and consistency. Using a qualitative analysis of the Facebook pages visited widely by the residents of Salamieh City in Syria (a stronghold for Ismailis), this study shows how narratives of a collective Self (both local Salamieh and national Syrian Selves) have been generated to cope with threats to ontological security imposed by the ongoing civil war. Following our finding that the pro-regime and neutral pages could have used thin narratives of ontological security but instead sticked to thick narratives, we argue that thick narrative opens up possibilities to understand complex reality and generate a rich meaning-system and strong agency. Contrary to the claim that a simple Self is more ontologically secure because its narrative is easily kept continuous and routinized, this study shows that confronting reality and tolerating change through thick narratives despite the anxiety and pain the process generates, can provide ontological security in the future. [R]
75.6281 SHARMA, Mukul —
This article focuses on the recent history of Hindu nationalist engagement with climate change and renewable energy in the post-2014 era, particularly through the actions of Narendra Modi. It raises questions about the character of climate politics within Hindu nationalist leadership, the role of key cultural and political concepts like a pure and powerful nation, the influence of Bharat’s civilizational identity on the global stage and the strategic utilization of climate change to enhance the popularity and legitimacy of an authoritarian leader and his government. The analysis expands to explore the transformation in India’s climate discourse post-2014, where social movements and grassroots organizations in the climate and renewable energy sector have diminished. The shift in policies toward big industry-driven development under Modi’s leadership has radically altered the sector. [R, abr.]
75.6282 SHINO, Enrijeta ; SMITH, Daniel A. —
Might voters’ experience with how they cast ballots affect their confidence in votes being accurately counted? We analyze how vote modality shapes voters’ confidence in the accuracy of the vote count, particularly when one method of voting is called into question to challenge the legitimacy of an election. Drawing on a large panel survey of validated voters conducted before and after the 2020 General Election, we find that voters in Florida who voted by mail in the last two general elections were more confident that votes would be accurately counted in the state than those who voted in person in the previous two general elections, despite claims by elites that mail ballots were fraudulent. We also find that voters who cast validated mail ballots became more confident that votes were accurately counted in the election. [R, abr.]
75.6283 SIEGEL, Scott N. —
At the same time as support for LGB rights and tolerance of homosexuality has increased among western democracies, there has also been a strong backlash. How can these two trends be reconciled? This article answers that question by considering the distribution of public opinion over LGB rights in Switzerland. Using a novel method, this article shows how Swiss citizens have become more polarized over LGB rights, not between those who favor and those who oppose but between those who strongly favor and the ambivalent. Some people on the right are also increasingly divided amongst themselves. The key driver is the growing impact party identity has on people’s social attitudes like acceptance of pro-LGB policies. Results from Switzerland suggest we will find increased polarization in other democracies where the cultural political spectrum has become salient. [R]
75.6284 SIMON, Elizabeth ; TURNBULL-DUGARTE, Stuart J. —
In a climate where education stratifies electorates, does a university degree universally pay dividends at the polls or is there an education homophily premium, whereby graduates disproportionately select “their own”? Via a meta-analysis and original subgroup heterogeneity test of 20 candidate choice conjoint experiments from 12 affluent democracies, we demonstrate university-educated candidates boast a 5 percentage-point preferability bump over their less educated counterparts. We also find evidence of education-based identity biases, observing significant in-group preferability among degree holders. Graduates are more inclined to place a premium on candidates’ membership of their educational in-group and penalize those from the out-group vis-à-vis nongraduates. These results clearly highlight the importance of education in the candidate favorability calculus and demonstrate that education’s biasing effect in shaping preferences will likely ensure the continued dominance of university-educated representatives in affluent democracies. [R, abr.]
75.6285 SIMONCINI, Guendalina —
This article seeks to critically examine how gender influences the interpretation and representation of women’s violence within the Tunisian public discourse. Far from being gender-neutral, the counterterrorism discourse perpetuates entrenched patriarchal hierarchies, amplifying imbalanced power dynamics within society. The study, utilizing tools from feminist critical discourse analysis, aims to shed light on how female involvement is depicted in public discussions on terrorism in Tunisia, and how this affects counterterrorism strategies and preventive measures in the post-revolutionary setting. This is achieved primarily by scrutinizing the discourse of jihād al-nikāḥ, and by exploring women’s roles in programmes aimed at preventing violent extremism (PVE). Emphasis is given to the depiction of women as mothers – viewed negatively when embracing political violence and positively when engaging in extremism prevention initiatives. While one narrative often paints women merely as victims or brainwashed entities, the PVE policies acknowledge women’s agency but instrumentalize it for security-oriented objectives. [R]
75.6286 SIMONCINI, Guendalina —
This article delves into the historical foundations of countering and preventing violent extremism (CVE-PVE) using contemporary Tunisia as a case study. While PVE emerged in the 2010s, representing a shift from stringent counterterrorism to a more holistic preventative strategy, it recalls colonial notions and practices. This work seeks to contextualize PVE, emphasizing continuities and changes across colonial, post-colonial, and neocolonial control and prevention practices. Using a genealogical and discursive methodology, the research examines contemporary policy documents, political discourse, colonial archives, and transitional justice records. Central to this exploration is the French colonial notion of pacification, which refers to the action to restore order and prevent disorder in regions resisting colonial dominance. The study sheds light on the colonial origins of present-day preventative measures such as administrative control, referral, persuasion, and peacebuilding. [R, abr.] [First article of a thematic issue on “Constituting modern subjects by disciplining the extremes: international histories, global hierarchies, and intersectionality in Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE)”. See also Abstr. 75.6026, 6225, 6276, 6421, 6558, 6707]
75.6287 ŞIMŞEK, Hasan Berkcan —
Arabic and Persian loanwords in Turkish, once targeted for replacement by ‘pure’ Turkish equivalents during the early 20th-century language reform, have been promoted by the government in recent years. However, public attitudes toward their use remain unclear. Based on 20 semi-structured interviews and a survey (N = 203), this study explores contemporary social meanings associated with these loanwords. The findings demonstrate how their use is interpreted as an indicator of education levels, intellectual capabilities, and political leanings. While strong support for the language reform persists, younger individuals view these loanwords more favorably and express less radical attitudes than older individuals. [R]
75.6288 SLAUGHTER, Christine M. —
Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee on August 23, 2024. Her campaign was significantly different than others. As the sitting vice president to Joe Biden, Harris’s campaign was shortened. She had less than 90 days to mount a formal campaign after her endorsement from Biden. In this essay, I take an intersectional analytical framework — accounting for how power in society is shaped by multiple axes of social division, including race, class, and gender, and not a single axis of identity (Collins and Bilge 2020, 2). I seek to explain the racial and gendered dynamics during the campaign, the activism of Black women voters leading up to Election Day, and Black women’s activism in the aftermath of the 2024 election. This essay highlights the resilience of Black women, evident in their political behavior and political attitudes in the 2024 presidential election campaign and aftermath. In Black women’s support for the Democratic Party, Democratic ticket, and Vice President Harris, we better understand how this pivotal base influences electoral politics and how race-gendered identities influence American politics overall. [R]
75.6289 SLOMAN, Peter —
The UK Labour Party’s return to power in 2024 followed a wave of victories by its centre-left counterparts in the period during and after the Covid pandemic. From the perspective of 2025, however, the ‘progressive moment’ of the early 2020s looks short-lived, as the political pendulum has swung rightwards in the United States and elsewhere. This special collection examines the experiences of recent centre-left governments in five countries — Portugal, New Zealand, Australia, the United States and Germany — and considers what lessons they hold for Sir Keir Starmer and his colleagues. [R] [Introduction to a series of articles, edited by the author and Deborah MABBETT. See Abstr. 75.5985, 6071, 6078, 6115, 6200]
75.6290 SOHLBERG, Jacob ; ESAIASSON, Peter —
A superordinate identity that emphasizes the shared bond between people of different groups can have beneficial outcomes according to the theoretical argument of the common ingroup identity model. Unlike previous research that focuses on a single superordinate identity, we simultaneously study two superordinate identities: local identity (identification with the neighborhood) and national identity (identification with the country of residence). Our study is set in two ethnically heterogenous and low-income neighborhoods in Sweden. Based on four waves of panel survey data, we find that both types of superordinate identities are associated with increases in interpersonal and institutional trust. The identities have distinct consequences, however. Local identity is related to local trust and national identity to national trust. These results are based on within-individual variation. Since high trust generally has a range of positive consequences, our results point to an approach at improving communities that are often in much need of it. We observe low correlation between the two superordinate identities and high convergent and discriminant validity of the concepts. Our results may be relevant to similar neighborhoods that exist across Europe. [R]
75.6291 STEIN, Robert M., et al. —
Contrary to previous research and press accounts, we find limited evidence that persons who worked the polls in the past, including the 2020 election, are reticent to work in future elections. Our explanation focuses on the motivation and affect persons need to have to work the polls. Persons who believe their work at the polls is consequential for their community and who feel their work is valued, respected, and well-supported are highly motivated to work the polls in future elections. Conflict at the polls with voters and poll watchers, aspects of poll worker training, and collaborations with other poll workers have no appreciable impact on the willingness to work the polls. Only the magnitude and diversity of problems poll workers observed voters had casting their ballots are significant deterrents to working the polls. [R, abr.]
75.6292 STEPANENKO, Viktor ; STEWART, Susan —
The article explores why civil society has been able to fulfil certain defence-related functions in wartime Ukraine. Drawing on the literature on civil society development in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as on research on shrinking and changing spaces for civil society in hybrid and authoritarian contexts, we point to the necessity of taking a broad view of civil society and the actors it comprises. Utilizing this lens, we show that civil society actors have created multiple niches in which they can contribute to Ukraine’s defence. We find that this has been facilitated by the experience of these actors during and after the Euromaidan (2013–2014). In addition, we find that a sense of existential threat has motivated civic activists to expand their activity despite shrinking and changing spaces for their participation. Ukrainian civil society actors have thus innovated within a wartime context to overcome shrinking spaces and provide a substantive contribution to the country’s defence against Russian aggression. [R] [See Abstr. 75.5921]
75.6293 STOCKEMER, Daniel ; KOLODZIEJCZYK, Kamila —
This article introduces the World Age Representation in Cabinet (WARC) dataset, the first comprehensive dataset on age representation in cabinet. It provides information on the age of ministers, the share of young cabinet members aged 35 years or under and 40 years or under, as well as data for other age groups (i.e., 41 years to 60, and 61 years and over). In addition, it compares youth’s presence in cabinet with youth’s presence in the population, as well as maps young adults’ presence in different types of portfolios (i.e., high prestige, middle prestige, and low prestige portfolios). In total, the WARC dataset presents age data for more than 1500 cabinets, in more than 200 countries, and spans from years 1952–2024. It is freely available online and the data can be easily merged with existing datasets. [R]
75.6294 STONECASH, Jeffrey M. —
For decades a narrative has dominated interpretations of American politics. Democrats formed the New Deal coalition by attracting northern white working-class voters in the 1930s. Then beginning in the 1960s the party became too liberal, lost the support of the white working class, and they began moving to the Republican Party. The purpose of this analysis is to assess and question the accuracy of this narrative. Just how much support did Democrats have from white working-class voters by the 1950s. Was there a decline in the 1960s or 1980 with Ronald Reagan? The evidence suggests there are significant problems with the narrative, and we need to reconsider what shapes white working-class political support. [R]
75.6295 STRATTON, Victoria ; WRIGHT, Thorin M. ; HINOJOSA, Magda —
Incorporating women into the political sphere promotes civil conflict resolution and reduces conflict recurrence. But will women throw their hats into the political ring amid ongoing conflict? While women’s officeholding during times of ongoing political violence may bode well for peace, we have little understanding of how such ongoing civil conflicts affect women’s willingness and/or ability to compete for political office. In this study, we argue that ongoing violence targeting civilians leads to a lower likelihood of women running for office. We explore these expectations on data from Afghanistan’s provinces during the 2010 and 2018 elections. We find that provinces with greater civilian deaths have significantly lower percentages of women running for office. Despite this, we also find that the overall number of candidates running for office is unaffected by such violence, underscoring that violence has a gendered effect on candidacies. [R]
75.6296 STRAWBRIDGE, Michael, et al. —
This study builds on the existing literature by considering the extent to which minority legislators offer different forms of constituency outreach during times of emergency. This case study of state legislator constituent outreach during the COVID-19 pandemic uses an analysis of Facebook posts in 2020 to track how state legislators provided outreach and communicated resources to their constituents during a public health crisis. We ask, in times of emergency, do women and minority legislators offer unique attention toward the needs of those constituencies that they descriptively represent, or do urgent issues push these legislators to focus more broadly on general concerns expressed by their entire district? We argue that legislators’ social media activity during the COVID-19 pandemic offers an important measure of their practice of constituency outreach due to the nation’s reliance on virtual communication during this period. [R, abr.]
75.6297 STRELNYK, Olena ; PHILLIPS, Sarah D. —
This article examines how citizenship is reconsidered in Ukraine during the Russo-Ukraine war, from the gender perspective. We focus on the discursive construction of gendered citizenship in legislation and public discourse by focusing on laws, bills and public statements, speeches, and interviews by President Zelenskyy, key officials, parliamentarians, and opinion makers related to the topic of military mobilization and the roles of citizens in the context of war. We examine the construction of citizenship, focusing on the role of a male citizen, a female citizen, and the citizenship of LGBT + people. We show how participation in the military defense of the country becomes an important marker of the discursive construction of the image of a ‘worthy citizen,’ from which a considerable number of citizens are symbolically excluded. Our research aligns with many war studies claming that war time defense participation grants soldiers “full citizenship”. Along with this, we discovered the paradoxical nature of this process: legislative and discursive consolidation of the roles of ‘defenders’ by men coexists with erosions of some patriarchal norms regarding participation of women and LGBT + people in the state defense. [R] [See Abstr. 75.5921]
75.6298 STURM, Roland —
After 14 years in opposition, Labour is back in power. A governing party in conflict with itself, big and unresolved economic problems, and a Scottish National Party that managed to steer itself in a political cul-de-sac made change possible. The size of change is not least the result of the first-past-the-post electoral system and its disproportionality effects. These allowed the Labour Party to take 63.4 per cent of the seats in Parliament with only 33.7 per cent of votes. The British party system is more divided than ever before. The Liberal Democrats experienced a political comeback as alternative to the Conservatives, and the Green party made progress as an alternative to Labour. Reform UK, the party of the right-wing populist Nigel Farage, came third in the electoral contest with regard to vote totals. [R, abr.]
75.6299 SULLY, Melanie —
The British party system has been historically defined by two major parties, the Conservatives and the Labour Party. Parliamentary and election rules have reinforced this dominance which, in the 21st c., is facing major challenges. The increasing use of referendums cutting across party lines, electoral volatility and a loss of trust in political institutions mean that even small parties can aspire to break the traditional party system. Issues such as immigration, the environment and international crises further undermine domestic political stability. New parties such as Reform UK with its charismatic leader, Nigel Farage, and a populist agenda but with only an embryonic organisation, have the potential to undermine the two-party system as we know it. Britain is an increasingly polarised society which is reflected in intra-party conflicts. [R, abr.]
75.6300 SVALLFORS, Signe —
Over the past quarter-century, the literature on gender, peace, and security has evolved into a substantial interdisciplinary field. In this line of work, researchers have investigated the interplay between state security and women’s security, or how gender equality at the state level affects the occurrence of international and intranational conflict. The conclusion is that more gender-equal countries are less prone to engage in warfare, pointing toward a link between women’s security and national security. Various indicators have been used to capture gender equality in this literature, such as the representation of women in parliamentary roles, the proportion of women participating in the labor force, and school enrollment among girls relative to boys. [R]
75.6301 SWERS, Michele L. ; THOMSEN, Danielle M. —
We take a deep dive into the sponsorship and cosponsorship activity of Republicans in the US House of Representatives from 1993-2014 to examine how ideology and gender influence the policy priorities of Republican legislators on issues associated with women, as well as on the party-owned issue of tax policy. We expect that Republican women are crosspressured since assumptions about their policy expertise as women conflict with the policy reputation of the Republican Party. As a result, Republican women’s policy choices are impacted by their ideology in a way that is different from their male counterparts. Moreover, our analysis of which members’ bills move through the legislative process demonstrates that beyond their own policy preferences, women are strategic party actors. Thus, women are only more likely to see action on their women-focused and antiabortion proposals, the two areas that define the partisan divide over women’s place in society. [R]
75.6302 TEESELINK, Bouke Klein ; MELIOS, Georgios —
Partisans tend to be skeptical of governments only when they are led by the other side. This president-in-power effect threatens democratic functioning by limiting partisans’ ability to hold their own party accountable. As polarization rises, the problems associated with this phenomenon are likely to intensify. This article examines the evolution and drivers of the president-in-power effect since 1974. Mirroring the general rise in polarization, we document a steady increase in the president-in-power effect. Our research demonstrates that this increase can be attributed to an intensification of partisan identification, combined with a growing perceived ideological distance from the opposed party. Contrasting the narrative that polarization is stronger on the right, however, we find evidence that the president-in-power effect has grown faster for Democrats than for Republicans. [R, abr.]
75.6303 TEPEROGLOU, Eftichia ; BELCHIOR, Ana Maria —
One of the consequences of the eurozone crisis in the countries of ‘Old Southern Europe’ is the shift from pro-European to eurosceptic attitudes. Our overarching goal is to assess whether these critical stances towards the EU are more conjunctural or long-lasting. We further aim to analyse the determinants of euroscepticism at the micro-level before, during and after the emergence of the eurozone crisis. Our analysis reveals that euroscepticism is of a more conjunctural nature in Spain and Portugal, yet more structural in Italy and Greece. Moreover, our findings show that cultural and political/institutional approaches, but also political/ideological ones, better explain South European euroscepticism before, during and after the crisis when compared to utilitarian/economic approaches. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on “Euroscepticism in Southern Europe during the crisis period”, edited by Susannah VERNEY. See also Abstr. 75.6057, 6134, 6162, 6191, 6255]
75.6304 THIJM, Joris ; FERNANDES, Jorge M. —
Under what conditions do political parties employ junior ministers to keep tabs on their coalition partners in multiparty cabinets in presidential democracies? Existing literature on coalition governance in presidential systems has focused mainly on the role of presidents in monitoring coalition partners. Political parties have yet to be noticed. This paper contributes to the literature by placing parties front and center as strategic actors in presidential coalition governance. Specifically, we look at the conditions in which political parties employ junior ministers to shadow their coalition partners. Using an original data-set covering 25 cabinets in seven presidential democracies in Latin America, Africa, and Asia, we find that parties strategically use junior ministers to curb delegation perils and implement their collectively agreed-upon policy preferences. Our findings show that parties shadow nonpartisan ministers more extensively where presidents are strong. [R, abr.]
75.6305 THOMPSON, Andrew Ifedapo, et al. —
Racial violence is central to the American polity. We argue that support for violence, specifically anti-Black violence, has a long historical arc in American politics dating back to chattel slavery. We argue that the racial violence associated with the “great replacement” conspiracy is much more pervasive among the white American public because of the historical legacy of anti-Black violent sentiment. To investigate the prevalence of this idea, we conducted a preregistered simple priming experiment aimed to tap into top-of-mind ideas about racial demographic change. Our experimental design spans multiple data sources, including two probability samples, over the course of a year. We ultimately find that simply priming attitudes about racial demographic change through a single open-ended question consistently leads to increased support for political violence, increasing racial resentment, and expressed anti-Black views. [R, abr.]
75.6306 THÜRK, Maria ; KLÜVER, Heike —
Does supporting a minority cabinet harm a party’s electoral prospects? While minority governments have become more common in recent years, the electoral implications for parties supporting such cabinets remain unclear. Previous research suggests that support parties enjoy a favorable position, exerting policy influence while avoiding electoral losses associated with joining the government. However, we argue that this is only true for support parties without written agreements, as their support is less visible to voters. To test our argument, we compiled a novel dataset on the electoral performance of 563 parties in 304 elections across 31 countries since 1980. We estimate the effect of being a support party on subsequent electoral performance. Our findings indicate that parties which declare support perform better electorally than junior partners, while contract support parties do not. These insights shed light on the relationship between minority governments and electoral competition amidst growing party system fragmentation. [R]
75.6307 TIAN, Felicia F. ; YU, Yating ; ZHANG, Lan —
This article examines how Chinese state media tries to legitimize and promote civic solidarity in its portrayal of grassroots community participation to an international audience. It performed a corpus-assisted discourse analysis of 758 articles published in major Chinese English-language newspapers between 2001 and 2022. The results reveal a message of ‘empathetic solidarity’ in which Western ideas of liberty are blended, or hybridized, with the Chinese discourse of caring to ‘serve the people’, a fusion of Confucian culture and CCP’s socialist values. Code hybridization in Chinese media coverage highlights the agency of individual citizens in the context of caring for others and legitimizes state interference in community issues. By centering civic solidarity in caring and service for ordinary people, the media expands and transforms the code of liberty with a mutual collaboration between the government and individuals. [R]
75.6308 TOMARO, Queenie Pearl —
Women’s participation in preventing and countering extremist violence is increasingly prioritised in international, regional and national policies on Preventing/Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE), after the adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2242 (2015). It is crucial to analyse how local policies construct women’s participation in local P/CVE, considering influences from international and regional discourses. This paper delves into the discourses on women’s participation in P/CVE, seeking to explore the deeper logics that inform their involvement in the P/CVE strategy of the Philippines. This research unfolds in three distinct steps. First, a review of existing literature on women and P/CVE. Second, I discuss the theoretical and analytical approach of the research. Finally, I trace the discourses on women’s participation within the nineteen policies and identified three logics: logics of protection, political agency, and religion. Studies on the discourses on women in P/CVE policies allow us to interrogate the deeply seated assumptions towards women in security spaces and how these assumptions shape the participation spaces for women in extremist violence prevention work. [R]
75.6309 TONGE, Jon ; LOUGHRAN, Thomas —
This article draws upon new data from a recent Economic and Social Research Council funded project, Beyond Unionism and Nationalism, to examine whether electors in Northern Ireland identifying as neither nationalist/republican nor unionist/loyalist, the ‘neithers’, desire a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status (often labelled a border poll) on whether it should remain part of the UK or form part of a United Ireland and which of those two options they prefer. With surveys of public opinion and election results suggesting there are now three minorities in the region, unionists, nationalists and ‘neithers’, the views of the lattermost category may be vital in determining the arrival and outcome of a referendum. Utilising the largest n (2,045) set of face-to-face interviews with ‘neithers’ yet undertaken, the article suggests that their low levels of electoral activity extend to a current lack of enthusiasm for both an exercise in self-determination and a United Ireland. The piece also indicates, however, that national identification and religious affiliation are significant attitudinal indicators even among a group of electors located beyond the traditional bloc divide. [R]
75.6310 TOWNSEND, Kesley, et al. —
White attitudes about race, particularly white racial identity, are becoming increasingly salient in American politics. We use data from the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Studies to document a clear partisan asymmetry of the ideological distributions with respect to white identity. While Republicans as a group exhibit relatively higher rates of white identity, white identity within the Republican coalition provides little to no differentiation on ideology or policy preferences. By contrast, high white identity among Democrats, while less common overall, is far more predictive of conservative ideology and issue positions. High-white-identifying Democrats stand out from their copartisans in ways that high-white-identifying Republicans do not. The stronger relationship between ideology and white identity on the Democratic side of the aisle suggests important party coalition challenges discussed in the conclusion. [R, abr.]
75.6311 TRABER, Denise —
A well-studied hypothesis in the political economy literature is that economic globalisation leads to the convergence of economic policies because of increasing international constraints. However, little is known about how parties adapt their policy positions during economic crises. This paper investigates parties’ policy shifts in economically harsh times. It highlights the important distinction between long-term trends (e.g., economic integration) and relatively short-term economic fluctuations when studying party competition. During economic downturns parties have an incentive to intensify the debate on economic policies and emphasise their distinct policy positions. In other words, parties strategically position themselves on salient issues. The empirical analysis combines party manifesto data with macro-economic indicators and survey data from 28 European countries between 1980 and 2021. The findings show that party polarisation increases when the economy is in decline, and positions converge during economic recovery. Further analyses explore the mechanism and reveal an indirect effect: parties adjust their policy positions in reaction to changing voter priorities and grievances in times of economic distress. Overall, the article contributes to a larger literature on party competition and political responsiveness by showing that external shocks, such as economic crises, influence the diversity of political offers among established parties. [R]
75.6312 TREIBER, Janek —
Intra-party conflicts are a constant challenge for political parties, involving both personal and political aspects. Notably, expulsion procedures are initiated against members involved in these conflicts as a means of resolution. However, the question arises whether expulsion procedures are an effective approach to addressing internal conflicts. This paper aims to examine the practice and effectiveness of expulsion procedures as a mechanism for resolving intra-party conflicts. The study focuses on Germany, where parties and expulsions are strictly regulated by law, and uses a case study approach including three cases from different contexts of intra-party conflict in recent years: Max Otte and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Boris Palmer and the Greens and Sahra Wagenknecht and the Left Party. Unresolved conflicts can have serious consequences, potentially even destabilising or dismantling the parties. Therefore, effective conflict resolution mechanisms are crucial to ensure internal functioning and cohesion and need to be systematically analysed. However, political science literature has so far barely addressed the issue of party expulsions. The study will show that, in many scenarios, expulsion procedures often fail to resolve internal conflicts and that conflicts involving larger groups, such as factions, tend to persist or intensify even after expulsion procedures have been initiated. [R]
75.6313 TRUMM, Siim ; MILAZZO, Caitlin ; DUGGAN, Alan —
The 2019 General Election brought about a significant change in the parliamentary balance of power. There has already been much attention devoted to how parties and their leaders campaigned in the run-up to the polling day. Using original leaflet data from the OpenElections project, this study extends the focus to individual candidates by exploring the nature of local campaign communications. We find that candidates make little effort to promote their personal traits, with personalisation of leaflets remaining largely limited to offering visual cues in the shape of candidate photos. We also find that while negative campaign messages are common, they tend to relate to an opposing party more generally. Similarly, we find that highlighting the tactical situation in the constituency remains a rare practice. Our findings suggest that there is still considerable room for candidates to tailor their campaign materials to their personal attributes and the local electoral context. [R, abr.]
75.6314 TURNER, Thomas ; D’ART, Daryl —
European democracies appear to be facing substantial difficulties. Challenges arise from the emergence of right-wing populist parties and the withdrawal of citizens from established political parties. These changes it is claimed have led to an erosion of trust in the democratic political system. Drawing on ten waves of the European Social Survey from 2002 to 2020 in 11 Western European countries we test the evidence for a decline in democratic sentiment. Results do not support any deterioration in satisfaction with the way democracy works and trust in parliament, legal and police systems. Nor have hostile attitudes to immigrants increased in this period. Given the general rise in the electoral support for these parties our findings appear puzzling. However, while the evidence indicates no deterioration, attitudes to political parties and parliaments were far from positive in 2002 providing fertile ground for the emergence of populist radical right-wing parties. [R]
75.6315 TUROVSKY, Rostislav ; SUKHOVA, Marina ; FUNK, Karina —
The article explores the evolution of left-wing voting in the postcommunist countries of Central and Eastern Europe against the background of value shifts. The main trend indicates that those societies are witnessing a gradual transition to postmaterialism. However, examining the parties’ electoral manifestos allowed the authors to conclude that the twenty-first century cannot be characterized by uniform trends: only in the case of environmentalism did the left-wing parties adapt to the changing values of their electorate, while for other indicators the situation was the opposite. The main argument of the study, supported by regression analysis is that only the appeal to green policies prevented the left-wing parties from losing out in electoral campaigns, while the references to multiculturalism and social equality had the opposite effect. Curiously enough, the verbal commitment to traditionalist values also helped the left-wingers to retain their electorate. To get a more complete picture of the voting patterns, the authors carried out an investigation into the left-wing electorate. The conclusion was that supporters of the left-wing parties are increasingly inclined toward postmaterialism. At the same time, the study showed the ineffectiveness of the left-wing political programs. This creates a gap between the leftwing parties and their electorate. [R]
75.6316 TUTTNAUER, Or ; RAHAT, Gideon —
In this study, we investigate how two crucial political institutions — the electoral system and the intraparty candidate selection method — incentivise elite personalistic campaigning behaviour. We offer two contributions. First, we show the interactive effect of the two institutions on elite behaviour in campaigns, unlike most of the extant literature that focuses on parliamentary activity. Second, we apply the distinction between leader-focused (centralised) and individual-focused (decentralised) personalism to candidate selection methods. We argue that selection methods dominated by the party leader and ones employing primaries, two types of selection methods usually seen as opposites on established scales of candidate selection, are actually similar in their effect on politicians’ personalistic behaviour during electoral campaigns. [R]
75.6317 UYSAL, Mete Sefa ; ACAR, Yasemin Gülsüm —
Reappropriation has been discussed as an identity management strategy as a means to reevaluate oneself in a context that will not allow for large-scale social change. There are, however, numerous examples of reappropriation of stigmatizing labels as connected to political movements. This research examines whether reappropriation of stigmatizing labels can function as a precursor to collective action. In Study 1, we conducted semistructured interviews on the reappropriation of çapulcu identity with 20 Gezi Park protesters in Turkey. Interviews focused on how they recall the reappropriation of the word to have started, how they gave subsequent meaning, and how çapulcu identity predicted their protest participation and their broader politicization during and after the protests. In Study 2, we conducted a cross-sectional survey on the reappropriation of fat identity by collecting data from fat liberation and body positivity activists in North America (n = 479). Reflexive thematic analysis (Study 1) and structural equation modeling (Study 2) showed that reappropriation of stigmatizing labels among activists is associated with a greater willingness to participate in collective action through increased agency, empowerment, and identity change. Findings provide important insights on identity management strategies and social change, and open new avenues to discuss reappropriation as a possible political strategy that might mobilize oppressed groups. [R]
75.6318 VACAFLORES, Isabella ; STEPHENSON, Elise —
Female legislators are typically assumed to act for other women when policymaking. Contemporary literature challenges this, and a need to “tow the party line” complicates the process of attributing acts of substantive representation vis-à-vis policy to any individual political actor. Using 1,047 private member’s bills tabled in the Australian federal parliament (1995-2022), we address this limitation by employing a quantitative text analysis approach. We find gendered differences in the propensity to propose such bills across parties and over time. Further, our analysis reveals that substantive gender differences in legislation extend beyond linguistic variations to distinct thematic concerns. These findings underscore the role of gender but also other biographical and contextual factors in shaping legislative priorities, contributing to ongoing debates about the substantive representation of women in policymaking. [R]
75.6319 VALISA, Jessica —
This article analyzes the reception of Russian strategic narratives to understand which discursive elements contribute to their success, and especially to their adoption in the discourse emerging from far-right online outlets employing a qualitative approach. The analysis of a textual corpus of several hundred website-based articles from Italian far-right outlets revealed how Russia is imagined as an ideal and alternative political model, described as a harbinger of morality, independence, and culture, and it is juxtaposed to a weak and culturally decadent West. The result of the analysis shows how themes pertaining to the grievances of the cultural backlash majorly contribute to the themes informing the discourse summarized above, thus uncovering an important feature contributing to the success of such propaganda efforts among disenfranchised domestic publics. [R]
75.6320 VAN DITMARS, Mathilde M. ; SHORROCKS, Rosalind —
The “modern” gender vote gap — where women are generally more supportive of left parties than men — is established in many Western democracies. Whilst it is linked to societal changes, and in particular the transformation of gender roles and relations, scholars still grapple with its underlying mechanisms. This paper tests one mechanism currently untested in existing accounts: that women’s specific experiences in less traditional social statuses — in employment, education, or out of marriage — drive their support for the left. Analyses using German, Swiss, and English panel data do show differences in left party support between men and women, and amongst women, according to these social statuses. However, we do not find evidence that these occur because of these experiences directly. Rather, our findings indicate that left-leaning women self-select into certain life trajectories. This suggests that women’s shifting political views due to societal change have corresponding changes in individual life choices. [R]
75.6321 VAN HARTEN, Anne, et al. —
This article analyses how new open-source intelligence methods democratise and complement traditional signals intelligence while bundling dispersed expertise required to ensure the quality of data and the confidence we can have in analysis. It examines the case of OSINT activity on web-controlled radio receivers since 2022 about Russian military communications in Ukraine. It uses network analysis to show the extent of information leakage, analysis and collaboration by various actors that perform different tasks of crowdsourcing, vetting and interpreting information to make it actionable. We advance the field in knowledge of open-source intelligence gathering, dissemination and use. [R]
75.6322 VENTO, Isak ; EKLUND, Andreas —
Compromising is at the heart of politics, yet the concept is insufficiently understood from an agent’s perspective. This is important because the type of compromising is related to different qualities of politics and governing. In this article, we study Swedish politicians’ perceptions of political compromise to identify the meaning constructs of different approaches to compromising. We analyse a set of interviews with 21 Swedish MPs from a theory-guided content perspective, which allows for an inductive approach to the distinctive meanings of the politicians’ interview answers, but also connects these to theoretically derived meanings of the political compromise. We find the politicians to view compromise pragmatically as a necessity or idealistically as normatively valuable for democracy. Sometimes, the approach also includes a moralist contempt for certain types of compromises. The moralist perception was found to sometimes align with the pragmatic or idealist perceptions, mainly as a rhetorical anti-thesis for legitimising one’s stance. The pragmatic and idealistic perceptions seemed mutually exclusive. The findings indicate that analysing the politicians’ approaches to compromise can be informative for understanding the resulting politics and governing, where the pragmatic perception can be indicative of a governing mindset and the idealistic perception of a campaign mindset. [R]
75.6323 VIDOTTO, Sofia ; WEITZ-SHAPIRO, Rebecca ; WINTERS, Matthew S. —
Citizen political knowledge is conventionally measured with survey questions developed for use in the industrialized wealthy democracies. We argue that certain characteristics of political institutions and party systems that are relatively common in unconsolidated democracies and mixed regimes are likely to constrain the acquisition of political knowledge as traditionally measured. Using data from Latin America, Africa, and the countries included in the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, we examine the relationship between contextual factors and average levels of political knowledge across countries, measured both through civics knowledge and the ideological placement of political parties. We provide evidence consistent with the idea that citizens have fewer opportunities and are less motivated to acquire political knowledge in contexts where political institutions and actors frequently change and where young and nonprogrammatic parties are the norm. [R]
75.6324 VLANDAS, Tim ; HALIKIOPOULOU, Daphne —
This article presents new empirical evidence about the impact of Jihadist terrorist attacks on far-right preferences using the “unexpected event during survey” research design. This strategy allows us to match individuallevel data from the European Social Survey (ESS) to data on Jihadist terrorist attacks to compare respondents’ party preferences before and after a terrorist attack during the same survey period in the Netherlands, Sweden, France, and Germany. We theorise and test three distinct hypotheses about how different combinations of attitudinal changes including outgroup prejudice and trust in institutions impact far-right preferences. We find no statistically significant effects. Analyses of the two indirect mechanisms — i.e., prejudice and trust — yield mixed results consistent with the null effect on far-right party preferences. [R, abr.]
75.6325 VOLACU, Alexandru —
This article addresses one of the most salient arguments for compulsory voting, according to which electoral abstention constitutes a type of freeriding behavior that the state is justified in mitigating through coercive action. The argument is grounded by two distinct claims, one related to fairness and the other to compulsion. While previous works have focused on the latter, I presently provide an in-depth analysis of the former, showing that this claim fails in both of its two principal accounts offered so far. By contrast, I argue that the fairness claim can be appropriately specified for a combination of public good and contributory action but that, even in such a plausible account, it can at best function as a moral requirement regarding electoral behavior, without being able to provide support for the political institution of compulsory voting. [R]
75.6326 VUČIĆEVIĆ, Dušan ; BURSAĆ, Dejan —
In comparison with the expanding body of literature on representation, the number of studies examining geographical aspects of it remains relatively limited. This relates primarily to comparative analyses, but also to the array of methodological tools used to measure localness. Our study seeks to address this gap by introducing a novel measurement based on Gallagher’s index of disproportionality. Drawing on contemporary data from 27 European countries, we envisioned an operationalisation of geographical representation which prevents the expected lack of representation of small municipalities to affect the index values, instead focusing on relative population sizes in correlation with the relative number of elected MPs. We introduce the data, and then proceed to establish which country-level determinants influence the Index of territorial disproportionality. The findings indicate that district magnitude and number, parliament size, and the difference between established and new democracies have a high impact on the proportionality of local representation. On the other hand, the opening of lists for more voters’ influence within the PR list system, implemented mainly through preferential voting, appears to have no impact, indicating that parties tend to nominate (and voters tend to elect) local candidates even when institutional incentives of the electoral system are low. [R]
75.6327 WADOWSKI, Gianna M., et al. —
In-person voting processes that rely on paper ballots have long dominated voting processes in the US. However, following the implementation of the Help America Vote Act in 2002, states rapidly adopted new voting technologies that dramatically changed the in-person voting experience. Since then, states have continued to adopt new voting technologies as new challenges and opportunities have emerged. Although scholarship has demonstrated that new voting technologies can offer benefits, reported improvements to the in-person voting experience are inconsistent. Despite changes in voting equipment and voting methods, voters continue to wait in long lines, affecting turnout and voter confidence. Using observational time-studies from three elections, this analysis uses discrete-event simulation to investigate the effect of voting equipment type on voting process performance. [R, abr.]
75.6328 WALDVOGEL, Thomas ; DÖRRCHAP, Nikolas —
In the media and political science debate, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is generally positioned in a two-dimensional political space as leftist in socio-economic terms, advocating redistributive social and stateinterventionist economic policies, but as conservative on a socio-cultural axis, in the sense that the party deals with identity policy issues in a traditionalist manner and problems of migration with a national focus. However, empirical evidence that the BSW actually fills the gap in leftist-conservative politics in the German party system is still largely lacking. This article aims to help reduce this gap in knowledge about the actual programmatic character of the BSW and its positioning in the composition of the German party landscape using the example of the 2024 European elections. [R, abr.]
75.6329 WALK, Erin, et al. —
How do representations of violent conflict differ across social media platforms? We constructed and analyzed comparable datasets of public messages and images from elite- and meso-level Syrian actors posting on three popular social media platforms. Our findings show that complementary if divergent discussions of violence remain central even amid a period of relative de-escalation. Narratives on Twitter reaching an international audience contextualize violence within the conflict’s master cleavages, while on Telegram, they address a more local audience and emphasize the violence’s day-to-day impacts. A site with stricter surveillance, Facebook features more loyalist narratives. Paired with a sample of users’ responses to an open-ended questionnaire, our results show that users across platforms diversify their presentation of violence to reach domestic and international audiences and to accommodate technical affordances, with consequences for how both audiences and researchers understand ongoing conflict. [R]
75.6330 WALKER, Brooklyn ; DJUPE, Paul A. —
Thus far, no research has explored the extent of Christian nationalism and the consistency of its relationships with public policy across sexual orientations. Drawing on multiple datasets with appropriate questions from 2017 through 2023, we document that there are, in fact, LGB Americans with Christian nationalist views. And then we find only small gaps and many similar slopes in how they link Christian nationalism to their policy positions. Moreover, unlike the pattern among racial groups, the similarities do not stop at the ingroup door — we find Christian nationalist LGB Americans taking positions against anti-LGB-discrimination efforts and against same-sex marriage. We argue that LGB Christian nationalism is a response to acceptance threat and that religion plays an especially strong role in leading LGB Americans to advocate for a Christian America devoid of equality for LGB Americans. [R, abr.]
75.6331 WALLACE GOODMAN, Sara —
What does it mean to be a good citizen, and who can fulfill the obligations of citizenship? There is widespread agreement on how individuals understand how to perform good citizenship, with emphasis on behavioral and liberal democratic norms, but little work on who they think can or should perform it. It also remains unclear how growing polarization challenges this consensus, where divisions are reified along partisan lines. This paper uses a conjoint experiment in the US, UK, and Germany to explore attributes and characteristics of good citizenship. It finds behavioral norms and liberal values, from voting to tolerance, remain essential to good citizenship across democracies. Yet, we observe variation by partisanship over who can be a good citizen, where right-wing party voters prefer Christian over Muslims and native-born over naturalized citizens in all three cases. [R, abr.]
75.6332 WANG, Chendi ; ALTIPARMAKIS, Argyrios —
The Ukrainian crisis has significantly shifted public opinion against Russia and Putin, placing politicians with prior Russian ties in a precarious situation. This paper tracks how parties that had some affinity to Putin have pivoted after the outbreak of war. Through computational text analysis of a decade of Facebook posts from 11 European radical right parties, we investigate their stance evolution towards Russia and their strategic management of public sentiment and Russian relationships. The results show that most radical right parties, after the invasion, neither tried to remain pro-Russia nor focussed their attention on shifting their prior position. Instead, they engaged in blurring the issue, diverting attention away from the war and using the events in Ukraine to assert their anti-EU positions. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6426]
75.6333 WARREN, Mark E. —
We live in a period of hopes and fears for democracy. Democratic erosion is now taking the perverse form in which institutions long associated with democracy, especially competitive elections, have become vehicles for authoritarian populists to undermine other institutions necessary to democracy, including rights and the rule of law. Yet although the democratic project seems to be backsliding, the democratic values of citizens remain relatively strong. Hopes for democracy will involve continuing to defend, reform, and reinforce electoral democracy, while supplementing these institutions with “democratic innovations” — processes that tap these democratic values with smarter and better citizen participation, more equal and responsive representation, and better deliberation. If we can target the democratic deficits in representative democracies with these kinds of innovations, the democratic project will continue to march forward, and our hopes will have places to land. [R, abr.]
75.6334 WASHIDA, Hidekuni —
Although existing literature reveals that autocrats underreported the death toll during the Covid-19 pandemic, few studies have explored how, why, and under what conditions autocrats faked the data. By analysing crossnational daily data (from 164 countries between January 2020 and March 2023), this article reveals that, unlike closed autocracies, which relied on strict restrictions of information and collective actions, electoral autocracies strategically fabricated the mortality statistics with electoral cycles, which coincided with protest cycles. In contrast, such cycles were not salient in democracies. This study argues that, in electoral autocracies, the limited accountability and looser political restrictions induced people and opposition parties to invest in collective actions during electoral seasons, whereas autocrats tried to discourage mass uprisings by well-timed, nuanced statistical tampering. The article also demonstrates that electoral statistical cycles become salient when autocrats can command the co-operation of local politico-bureaucratic agents. Moreover, it provides preliminary evidence that underreporting of casualties helped discourage protests and opposition mobilization in electoral autocracies. [R]
75.6335 WAUTERS, Bram, et al. —
The gender gap in political ambition is often suggested as a key factor in women’s political underrepresentation. Recent work highlights that this gap is prominent for elected positions, but less for non-elected positions. This article compares ambition levels for a non-elected function as political advisor that is assigned either competitively or not. This comparison – alongside an elected, competitive mandate – allows us to investigate whether gender differences in ambition occur for elected, competitive and/or political positions in general. Rather than analyzing a selected sample (typically youth party members), we survey the general (young) population (in Flanders (Belgium)). Our analyses show persistent gender gaps across all political roles, demonstrating that the gender gap in ambition is not solely driven by competition or elections. We also find that this gap mostly disappears once political attitudes are controlled for, pointing to structural influences behind women’s lower levels of political ambition. [R]
75.6336 WESTLAKE, Daniel ; ROBBINS-KANTER, Jacob —
Local candidates seeking to personalize their campaigns and build affinity with target voters may highlight particular aspects of their identities within campaign communications. One such aspect they may reference is their class background. For example, campaign materials frequently mention a candidate’s occupational or educational background in order to build rapport with the electorate and indicate shared status, interests or values. This article compares the self-presentation of class identity among political candidates in the 2022 Ontario and Québec provincial elections. We code 976 online candidate biographies to assess how class background is referenced and examine the impact of variables such as party affiliation and riding demographics on self-presentation of class status. We further compare campaign biographies with data on candidates’ class backgrounds separately sourced from news reports and social media (LinkedIn). This allows us to determine which elements of class identity candidates choose to highlight, downplay or embellish in their campaign biographies. [R]
75.6337 WHITE, Allison C. —
I uncover the predictors of invalid votes in one of the world’s most prominent dictatorships — Russia — and examine associations with political parties’ performance using data from six legislative elections. While existing scholarship predicts more invalid votes in more educated and urban areas and fewer in areas with greater effective numbers of parties (ENP), evidence from Russia suggests the opposite, with noteworthy nuances in the case of ENP due to a curvilinear relationship with invalid votes. Increases in invalid votes are associated with better electoral performance by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (Kommunisticheskaya Partiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii — KPRF) and poorer performance by United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya). [R]
75.6338 WILKS-HEEG, Stuart ; HOPKIN, Jonathan —
Before 2000, the UK operated one of the most liberal political finance regimes of any established democracy. Parties were highly dependent on private financing, state funding was minimal, limited transparency requirements existed with respect to party income or expenditure, and no limits applied to national election spending. Far-reaching reforms introduced by Labour in 2000 changed this regulatory environment radically, establishing donation disclosure requirements and capping election spending. However, Labour’s reforms did not include significant increases in state funding, leaving the UK as a continued outlier in Western Europe in assuming political parties should predominantly be funded through private means. In this paper, we show how the Conservatives ultimately prospered under Labour’s reforms, enabling them to greatly outspend Labour at four general elections from 2010 to 2019. Using the public registers created by Labour’s reforms, we document how the party’s financial re-stabilisation while in opposition was assisted to a surprising degree by state funding and how the party’s donor base has shifted towards wealthy individuals and privately owned companies since its return to government in 2010. We conclude with a number of observations about how the apparently exceptional UK case can help generate important insights for the comparative study of political finance. [R] [First of a series of articles on “The private funding of politics”, introduced by Daniela R. PICCIO and Chiara FIORELLI, “The study of private political finance in Europe: regulatory frameworks, challenges, and adaptive practices”, pp. 1-9. See also Abstr. 75.6178, 6242, 6345]
75.6339 WINEINGER, Catherine N. —
The 2024 presidential election was historic in many ways, but one trend did not buck the norm: the gender gap. Indeed, despite Kamala Harris becoming the first Black and South Asian woman to win a majority party’s nomination, the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade, and clear attempts by the Harris campaign to win over white Republican women voters, “gender differences in vote choice in the 2024 elections were remarkably similar to recent presidential elections” (CAWP 2024). This essay highlights the long-term ideological and demographic shifts among party constituencies that can help to explain why Republican women cast their vote for Donald Trump, even in a uniquely gendered political landscape. [R]
75.6340 WINKELMANN, Thorsten ; NOLLER, Jost F. —
The most striking result of the parliamentary elections in South Africa of May 29, 2024 was that, for the first time since the introduction of democratic elections in 1994, the ANC had lost its majority. As a liberation movement against white minority rule, the ANC had won the support of the clear majority of the black population in all prior elections. But the consent with the ANC was reduced by high unemployment rates, high criminality, insufficient public delivery service such as supply of electricity as well as ongoing widespread poverty. Additionally, former president Jacob Zuma had founded a new party which won considerable support especially among the numerically biggest population group, the Zulus. After the election, the ANC decided to form a coalition “Government of National Unity” with the formerly largest opposition party, the liberal Democratic Alliance. [R, abr.]
75.6341 WINTER, Thomas von —
This paper focuses on a subset of the interest group population in the German health policy sector. Analyzing the invitation lists to all public hearings the health committee of the German Bundestag carried out between the 15th and the 19th election term, [I] show [how] the size of the interest group community in the health policy sector and the practice of invitations to the committee hearings developed over time. Another purpose of the analysis is to build up a ranking of interest groups based on the frequency of invitations to hearings that mirrors the distribution of opportunities to get access to, and to exert influence on decisions in health policy. In a next step, propositions are developed on how changes in the invitation practice of the committee and in the composition of the interest group community over time can be explained. [R, abr.]
75.6342 WOLAK, Jennifer —
State governments are increasingly challenging the national government and pursuing state rules in opposition to national laws. I am interested in whether the public supports this strategy. Do people want state governments to deliver policy outcomes that better fit the interests of state constituents — even if it undercuts the authority of the national government? Or are citizens critical of state actions that challenge national laws? I find that most Americans do not believe that states should be allowed to block the enforcement of federal laws they disagree with. Opposition to state challenges increases with support for the rule of law. Using experiments, I explore whether people are less likely to support policy outcomes when they are described as challenging national provisions. I find limited evidence that people evaluate state policies differently when described as contrary to national laws. [R, abr.]
75.6343 WOLF, Sebastian —
In 2023, only 22.4 percent of the members entitled to vote participated in the social insurance elections, i.e. the third biggest election in Germany. Against this backdrop, the paper describes the functions of the sectoral quasi-parliaments in Germany’s social security system. It also analyses causes of the legitimation crisis of these little-known self-regulatory bodies and discusses various reform scenarios regarding the social insurance elections. [R]
75.6344 WOLFOWICZ, Michael ; SALAMA, Esther —
There is an ever-growing body of evidence that suggests that there exists a significant degree of overlap between violent extremism (VE) and ordinary crime, both at the conceptual level and in terms of patterns and predictors. Countries differ considerably in their approaches to countering violent extremism (CVE). Yet, at least in the west, one common feature is the criminal justice system, whose role is essentially the same for VE as it is for other forms of crime. Despite this, there is little quantitative research on policing and criminal justice system effects on VE. Among the few studies that do exist, most focus on single countries, and examine long observation periods. Our analysis compares two key democratic countries that have received less attention, Canada and Sweden, and finds evidence of heterogeneous effects and patterns concerning how arrests impact the risk of future VE. This suggests that studies focusing on single contexts may have limited generalizability and that current wisdom concerning deterrence-backlash effects is more limited than previously thought. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6511]
75.6345 WOLFS, Wouter —
Fundraising is an essential part of the political enterprise. In almost all countries, parties and candidates rely on donations in order to collect sufficient resources to finance their political activities. While most of the existing research in the past has focused on the motivation of donors to contribute to parties and candidates, this article starts from the premise that the level of donations can best be explained by an interplay of supply-side factors (donors) and demand-side factors (political actors). This article specifically focuses on the demand-side: which policy and strategies do political actors develop to seek donations from various sources? To this end, explanatory factors on three main dimensions — institutional, interparty, intra-party — were examined with regards to the fundraising strategies of European political parties and foundations. Based on a combination of a document analysis and semi-structured interviews, the article will show how the regulatory framework, the possibility of a public backlash, party ideology and the general income structure of political parties influence their donation policy. [R] [See Abstr. 75.6338]
75.6346 WRAIGHT, Tom ; GREEN, Kai Roland —
The idea of ‘global Britain’ became a centrepiece of Conservative Party rhetoric in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. This article examines how this formulation may evolve in the face of renewed conflict over immigration and identity on the British right. It is argued that, in recent years, British conservatism has faced two principal long-term challenges: first, the challenge of broadening its appeal in an increasingly diverse and multicultural Britain and, second, the challenge of a national populist insurgency emphasising white British (especially English) identity and hostility to immigration and multiculturalism. In this context, it is argued that the term ‘global Britain’ exists in implied opposition to the idea of ‘little England’ and that this binary opposition has shaped the use and reception of the global Britain concept within conservative politics. It is further argued that the usefulness of the global Britain concept relies on its capacity to be a ‘coalition magnet’ linking liberal internationalist ideas to the more nationalist mood of the contemporary British right. [R]
75.6347 YABANCI, Bilge ; AKKOYUNLU, Karabekir ; ÖKTEM, Kerem —
As autocratisation gains global momentum, research on democratic resistance has expanded significantly. This introductory article to Limits of Autocratisation examines the actors, institutions, and practices that challenge, resist, or inadvertently enable autocratisation. It develops a framework for understanding opposition(s) across political, civic, and transnational dimensions. Rather than viewing autocratisation as linear, we conceptualise it as an uneven and contested process in which opposition actors navigate multiple constraints to hinder, disrupt, or potentially reverse autocratic advances. The article explores key questions guiding this volume’s case studies from countries at various stages of autocratisation: Which actors and institutions seek to limit autocratisation? What structural, institutional, and agency-related barriers do they face? How do they strat-egise to overcome these challenges? Rather than proposing universal solutions, we advance a nuanced theorisation of opposition(s) and resistance that accounts for structural conditions, timing, and strategic agency in shaping responses across divergent contexts. The article cautions against simplistic definitions of success or failure when theorising resistance and opposition to autocratisation, emphasising the fluid, contested, and ongoing nature of autocratisation. Ultimately, we propose a context-sensitive yet versatile framework for studying autocratisation’s limits by integrating regional contexts, interdisciplinary and comparative insights, and historical trajectories. [R]
75.6348 YARDIMCI-GEYIKÇI, Şebnem ; DUYVENDAK, Jan Willem —
The recent surges of protest have emerged as a striking global phenomenon. Several diverse countries, including Egypt, the United States, Spain, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and the United Kingdom, have witnessed massive protest movements over the past decade. Numerous recent studies have underscored the pivotal role of the interaction between protest movements and party politics. However, our understanding of why certain movements profoundly impact the political landscape, sometimes triggering the collapse of existing party systems, while others barely alter conventional politics, remains limited. Drawing from case studies of Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Turkey, we conduct a systematic comparative analysis of the impact of protest movements during the 2010s. We aim to elucidate why and how some protests have proven more effective in reshaping party politics, while others have faltered. Our contention is that the dynamics of the party system play a pivotal role in determining the capacity of social movements to instigate transformative changes in party politics. [R]
75.6349 YAVUZYILMAZ, Hakan ; ESEN, Berk —
Pre-electoral opposition coordination is the most effective strategy to counter contemporary forms of autocratisation. While scholars have recently begun to explore the factors that lead to the formation of pre-electoral alliances in competitive authoritarian regimes, the high variation in terms of their composition and effectiveness is generally neglected in the existing scholarship. There is a lack of research on why some inter-party coalitions have limited effectiveness in the electoral arena while others nominate optimal candidates through routinised and transparent procedures and run cohesive campaigns. Through a detailed analysis of the Nation Alliance (2018-2023) in Turkey, we argue that in the context of high regime vulnerability, power asymmetry between alliance partners and a high level of leadership control over candidate nomination in opposition parties hinder the potential effectiveness of formal pre-electoral alliances. [R]
75.6350 YEE, Stefanie Kam Li —
As COVID-19 unfolded, China’s response seemed to signal an expansion of the state’s presence and control of society. Examination of the COVID-19 crisis provides a lens for exploring the strategies of domination that has unfolded in the Xi Jinping era, and offers insight into how party, state and society relations might play out during a crisis. This article draws on data obtained from interviews conducted in Beijing and Shanghai, a survey of over 300 residents’ views on resident committees during the Shanghai lockdown and analysis of state media and policy documents. It argues that the COVID-19 crisis exemplified the ‘embedding’ of party networks at the grassroots as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) shifted from direct to indirect control over society. [R, abr.]
75.6351 YILMAZ, Ihsan, et al. —
Utilizing data from the Arab Barometer surveys, this study distinguishes between social media and the internet’s general use and their usage for political purposes, examining whether political engagement — obtaining political information and expressing political opinions — on these platforms bolsters or undermines democracy in authoritarian contexts. Initially, political engagement on social media and the internet was positively linked with support for democracy. However, this has recently turned negative, probably reflecting the rise of digital authoritarianism (authoritarian regimes’ use of digital technology to surveil, repress, and manipulate both domestic and foreign populations). This paper argues that there are two potential mechanisms for this: self-censorship and social learning. Selfcensorship suggests that individuals critical of the regime may refrain from expressing their political views on social media. [R, abr.]
75.6352 YILMAZ, Kutlu Emre ; ABUL, Osman ; HUSSAIN, Syed Ali —
This study examines between-group and within-group polarization in online social networks to uncover latent factors and ideological changes over time. The study used 2017 Turkish constitutional referendum as a case focusing on Twitter dynamics between the yes-vote and no-vote communities, examining divergence of worldviews and partisan responses. We examined how changes in partisan asymmetries over time shape echo-chambers in opinion, network, and user polarization providing evidence of polarization at group, sub-group, and individual levels. Findings show differences in polarization between groups at different time periods. Before the referendum, yes-voting users are main drivers of polarization and more inward-looking than no-voting users. In contrast, considering the gap between winners and losers of the referendum and associated mood swings, in the days following the referendum no-voting users are main drivers of polarization. This demonstrates fine-grained details of polarization and changes in users’ sentiment as a latent factor behind seasonal behavior differences observed between two groups. Overall, yes-voting community was ideologically more coherent with a relatively denser network structure and more polarized body of users. [R]
75.6353 YORK, Erin —
How do political outsiders in autocratic legislatures use institutional authorities? I argue that legislative authorities tailored to offering constituency service help to level the playing field between regime and opposition candidates competing for the crucial resource of public support. Though regime candidates may have the ear of those in power through backdoor channels and personal connections, opposition politicians can use ‘by the book’ politics — the legitimate authorities that accompany their office — to supply the constituency goods voters expect. I construct a database of activity from recent legislative terms in Morocco, including more than 27,000 unique queries submitted by elected members of parliament to government ministers, and find systematic evidence that voters reward parties and MPs that engage in more constituency service via institutionalized action. Yet the relationship between activity and voteshare is exclusive to opposition parties: regime-linked parties do not see electoral gains from increased legislative activity, but neither are they punished for shirking in office. [R]
75.6354 YU, Erica Celine —
In a representative deliberative democracy, a subset of the population — a committee — is selected to enter into deliberations as well as to make decisions on its behalf. In order to make a system of proportional representation fair to individual voters, the deliberations and decisions of the committee should be as close to deliberations and decisions in the ideal direct democracy where all are able to participate. The Chamberlin-Courant system claims to achieve this with its committee selection rule and voting weight distribution among committee members. After offering a novel streamlined presentation of the Chamberlin-Courant system, I argue that it in fact does not guarantee fairness to the individual voter because it does not take sufficient account of the fact that the satisfactoriness of a representative for an individual may vary per issue. I then propose an alternative — the multidimensional system — that is able to do exactly this. I then connect formal political theory with statistics on the use of voting guides to further motivate the proposed system and show that it is feasible to implement. [R]
75.6355 YUEN, Samson ; LEE, Francis L. F. —
Self-censorship is a ubiquitous phenomenon in authoritarian regimes. Despite the abundance of research empirically identifying its prevalence in such contexts, little is known about how self-censorship spreads among ordinary citizens, especially under democratic backsliding and authoritarian onset. This article argues that social influence plays a pivotal role in shaping individuals’ decision to self-censor. Based on a cross-sectional survey of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong following the introduction of a national security law in 2020, we find that respondents are more likely to exercise self-censorship in their daily lives when they (1) have received cautionary reminders from family members and peers or (2) have more acquaintances who are self-censoring. Further analysis indicates that both effects — known as direct persuasion and observational learning, respectively — are partially mediated by respondents’ risk perception and emotional reactions. The findings show that multiple mechanisms could be at work to effectuate self-censorship, challenging the notion that selfcensorship is induced merely by the “self”. By highlighting the role of social influences, this study shed lights on the micro-foundation of authoritarianism and reveals how self-censorship reproduces and diffuses during democratic backsliding. [R]
75.6356 YUN, Ji-Whan ; JEUNG, Yongwoo —
This study examines the legitimation strategies adopted by conservative political parties in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea from the late 2000s to the late 2010s, a period when these parties experienced political setbacks. By focusing on conservatives’ stances on labour issues, this study identifies three legitimation strategies: redesigning (acting as a superior protector of workers), subverting (destabilising an entire political landscape), and rolling back (undoing reforms implemented by a progressive government). This research aims to uncover the factors driving the adoption of these strategies. By revisiting Polanyi’s The Great Transformation, we establish a comparative framework to analyse these three strategies. This study argues that these differences were not random choices but deliberate responses to specific socio-political configurations that emerged after what Polanyi identified as a “double movement.” While the three countries shared common efforts by society to alleviate the detrimental impacts of market-oriented reforms, variations in the effects of the double movement, in terms of public attitudes towards labour reforms implemented by leftist governments, conservatives’ linkages to civil society organisations, and internal unity within conservative parties, gave rise to distinct legitimation strategies among conservatives. [R]
75.6357 ZAKS, Sherry —
While rebels’ electoral participation has become a focal point of scholarship on post-conflict development, the drivers and process of rebels’ organizational transformation into political parties have remained elusive. Organizational theory provides a novel, yet critical, point of entry to understanding rebel-to-party transformation and the actors at the heart of it. I look inside rebels’ wartime organizations and identify a set of subdivisions (in some groups) that mirror the key structures of political parties: governance wings, political-messaging wings, and social service wings. I argue that variation in rebels’ wartime organizational structures gives rise to different party-building mechanisms with distinct prospects for success. To test this theory, I use intra-organizational comparative process tracing of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) in El Salvador. Drawing on hundreds of archival documents, I create suborganizational biographies and trace their evolution from inception to transformation. This approach allows me to exploit systematic differences in the organizational structures of the FMLN’s subgroups — while holding equal other key variables like ideology, prewar networks, and state context — to demonstrate how the construction of proto-party structures during wartime facilitates party-building at the war’s end. [R]
75.6358 ZEVELEVA, Olga —
Analysis of journalistic fields is dominated by approaches that take news media at the nation-state level as the major unit of analysis. More recently, sociologists have asked whether we can speak of global journalistic fields. Many scholars have concluded that global journalistic fields are weak at best, and news production remains bounded by nation-states. This paper offers a more fine-tuned understanding of the boundaries of journalistic fields. Drawing on an interview-based qualitative study of regional journalistic fields in contemporary Crimea (a region of Ukraine annexed by Russia in 2014) and in Tatarstan (a region of Russia), I answer the questions “how do states shape the autonomy of regional journalistic fields?” and “how do journalists navigate the limitations they face?” I advance two arguments: first, journalistic fields can be understood as multiscalar fields, and the practices of journalists are shaped by the configuration of political relations along different scales simultaneously (the scale of the city, the region, the national scale, the scale of other nation-states, and the international arena). Second, the scales that exert the most influence on journalistic fields can change depending on whether the nation-state or the region is embroiled in conflict. [R]
75.6359 ZHDANOV, Andrew ; KOSOLAPOV, Kirill —
The article consists of three parts. The first contains a theoretical analysis of the phenomenon of US political polarization and discusses the main approaches to its explanation, primarily through the prism of the influence of political elites. The authors note a logical contradiction in the existing concepts, which postulate the existence of an “asymmetry” in the influence of elites on polarization in the United States, arguing that the contribution of the Republicans is more destructive than the contribution of representatives of the Democratic Party. The authors find the growth of political polarization, regardless of party preferences (while noting the importance of elite behavior as one of the central factors of political polarization). The second part examines the phenomenon of affective (or emotional polarization), based on the socio-psychological rejection of representatives of an alien political camp. Based on the results of a network analysis of a two-modal network consisting of pre-election messages and topics selected by the authors themselves, the author notes that all candidates, without exception, are prone to emotional affect as part of their election campaign. The third part is devoted to the study of positional (or ideological) polarization, in which the author, on the basis of Latent Dirichlet Allocation analysis, divides the corpus of campaign messages of candidates into separate topics and, through a comparative analysis, finds a significant distance from “bipartisan” topics (i.e. from the political center) among all candidates. [R]
75.6360 ZHIRNOV, Andrei, et al. —
The rise of populism in Europe has often been described as a response to representation deficits. Arguably, populist parties (1) contribute to the representation of underrepresented constituencies by taking stances that non-populist parties are too constrained to advocate and (2) make a promise of extreme responsiveness to those frustrated with the lack of representation. In this research note, we investigate whether populist parties are indeed closer to their voters in the policy space than non-populist parties and are more congruent with their constituencies than the other parties are with theirs. Using data from Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, we find that populist parties are indeed often the best policy option for their voters, but the correspondence between their positions and those of their constituencies is on average as good or bad as that between other parties and their voters. [R]
75.6361 ZILIOTTI, Elena —
Can Confucianism be reconciled with democracy if it is based on a leadercentered idea of political leadership where citizens exercise almost no influence in charting collective political directions? This question is central to the relevance of Confucianism to contemporary East Asian politics. This article overcomes this conundrum by presenting a new theory of Confucian democratic leadership. Contemporary leadership studies are analyzed to determine the fundamental conceptual elements of democratic leadership. At the same time, classical Confucian intellectual resources are used to develop a conception of democratic leadership that can be considered distinctively Confucian. The result is a robust conception of Confucian democratic leadership that is not only distinguished from traditional Confucian undemocratic views of political leadership but also from dominant Western theories of democratic leadership. [R]
75.6362 ZONSZEIN, Stephanie ; GROSSMAN, Guy —
How do dominant-group natives react to immigrants’ political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010-2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities’ political power gains and dominant-group animosity, we identify natives’ hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant-origin ethnic minority and dominant-group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction — encompassing a violence-prone fringe and the mass public — against ethnic minority immigrants’ integration into majority settings. [R]
75.6363 ZUG, Charles U. —
The author analyzes the 1956 Highway Act. Zug argues that the Act was a decisive leadership failure by the Eisenhower administration that contradicts Fred Greenstein’s characterization of Eisenhower as a successful “hidden hand” leader. [R]
75.6364 ZULVER, Julia ; STALLONE, Kiran —
What does it mean to be a brave woman? In 2020, we saw Belarusian women take to the streets dressed in white to oppose the violent dictatorship that had been in power for twenty-six years. In 2021, our television screens showed the Fall of Kabul, and the takeover by Taliban fighters, who overnight began to reverse decades of women’s empowerment. In response, and despite the risks, women demonstrators took to the streets in Kabul to demand their rights to work, education, and political participation. And in late 2022, we saw Iranian women fight for freedom, cutting their hair and burning their headscarves as they called for women’s rights in the context of brutal repression. These are but a handful of the myriad examples of women transgressing what is societally expected of them. They go out into the streets, they post on social media, they protest governments and make demands for change. Around the world, we see women being brave. They do so at great personal risk, and often when the potential benefits of being brave are infinitesimally small. [R]
75.6365
Introduction by Edalina RODRIGUES SANCHES, Anja OSEI, Batlang SEABO and M. Anne PITCHER. Articles by João CONDUTO, Boniface DULANI and Calum FISHER, “Elite party formation amid fragmentation: the case of Joyce Banda’s People’s Party in Malawi”, pp. 535-553; Ana Lúcia SÁ and Olivio KILUMBO, “UNITA’s post-war parliamentary elite: from a wartime defeat to a nationwide party in Angola”, pp. 555-574; Lawrence MHANDARA, “Unpacking power: how the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) under Nelson Chamisa selected its parliamentarians”, pp. 575-592; Mireille RAZAFINDRAKOTO, François ROUBAUD and Jean-Michel WACHSBERGER, “Investigating the small world in Madagascar: the political elites at the core”, pp. 593-617; Robert MATTES, Matthias KRÖNKE and Shaheen MOZAFFAR, “African legislators: unrepresentative power elites?”, pp. 619-641; Anja OSEI and Batlang SEABO, “A coalition for change? Role orientations in the 12th Parliament of Botswana”, pp. 643-663; Edalina RODRIGUES SANCHES, Yani KARTALIS and Hangala SIACHIWENA, “Explaining party switching in an institutionalised party system: the case of South Africa”, pp. 665-684; Sishuwa SISHUWA, “Floor crossing and the motivations of members of parliament in Zambia, 1991-2016”, pp. 685-706.