Abstract
Climate-induced extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have been documented as major drivers of massive displacement and migration of people globally and in Southern Africa, in particular. To this end, floods and recurrent drought conditions in most countries in southern Africa (e.g. Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Eswatini) continue to induce rural–urban migration as people flee vulnerable areas (flood- & drought-prone areas) for perceived better opportunities in towns and cities, owing to persistent crop failure in rural areas. Against this background, this paper aims to contribute to the climate change and migration discourse by exploring the climate change, migration and development nexus to better understand the challenges and opportunities for rural development paused by climate change through the migration pathway. The study adopts a desktop review methodology and makes use of both scholarly and grey literature to unpack the climate change and migration linkages and how these present opportunities (and challenges) for rural development in Southern Africa. The review was conducted by searching electronic databases such as Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar for articles published between 2000 and 2024. Key study findings reveal that climate change leads to population displacement and migration in Southern Africa as people flee flood and drought-prone rural areas for safer spaces (in towns and cities). This migration, while posing significant challenges for rural development and leading to the decline in rural food production, also presents potential opportunities for rural development through remittance flow and skills transfer. The study advocates for the formulation of policies and strategies that will mitigate the impacts of climate change while simultaneously harnessing the potential benefits of migration in promoting sustainable development in the region.
Introduction
Population displacement and massive migration of people from vulnerable and threatened regions has become largely inevitable as climate change continues to shape the socio-economic landscape of countries in the global South and Southern Africa, in particular (Islam and Hasan, 2016; Black et al., 2011). The projected increase in the duration, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods has become a global reality, especially in Southern Africa in countries such as Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Eswatini. Recurring extreme weather events, especially droughts, floods and storms (hurricanes), have resulted in the destruction of important infrastructure (including residential infrastructure), property and loss of life (both animals & human life), thereby destabilizing different social and economic structures in vulnerable areas.
The Southern African region, which is characterized by a semi-arid climate, coupled with its dependence on rain-fed agriculture, is particularly vulnerable to these climate-induced hazards which continue to push millions of people over the cliff of hunger, simultaneously exacerbating poverty and food insecurity in the region (Boko et al., 2007). Climate change poses a direct threat to the natural capital and ecosystem goods and services, which in turn pose serious existential threats to millions of people’s livelihoods resulting in forced migration (Denga et al., 2022). This makes addressing climate change an imperative no society should ignore; hence, understanding its impacts on migration and development would be instructive on policies that mitigate such effects and promote sustainable development. To this end, climate change and the accompanying extreme events continue to undermine the region’s progress towards achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goals 1 and 2, which aim to eradicate poverty and hunger by 2030 (Agenda 2030) (United Nations, 2015). This has arguably posed a great challenge on rural development, owing to the decline in rural food production and the increased pace of rural poverty.
The impacts of climate-induced disasters are not only felt in rural spaces where they largely affect agriculture and rural food production, but also in the urban areas where people migrate to in search of better job opportunities (Alverio et al., 2023). This rural–urban migration, partly driven by persistent crop failures in rural areas, poses significant challenges for rural development, leading to the deterioration of rural life and the decline in rural food production (Tacoli, 2009). Although migration has been largely viewed as negative by migration pessimists, proponents of migration (migration optimists) view it as positive and argue that it can serve as a livelihood diversification strategy, leading to rural development through remittance flow and skills transfer (De Haas, 2010). This perspective presents population displacement and migration as potential opportunities for rural development, a view that remains highly debatable due to limited research in this area.
This paper aims to contribute to the migration and climate change discourse by exploring the nexus between climate change, migration and development, with specific focus on Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Eswatini. It seeks to provide illumination on the subject and facilitates a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities for rural development posed by climate change through the migration pathway. With climate-induced displacement posing profound challenges to food security and exacerbating poverty, understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers, development practitioners and communities facing these issues. This research not only contributes to the academic discourse on climate change and migration but also offers actionable insights for formulating effective strategies that leverage migration as a potential pathway for sustainable development. Given the projected intensification of climate change impacts, this study is essential for guiding interventions aimed at mitigating adverse effects and enhancing resilience among affected populations. The study will adopt a desktop review methodology, making use of both scholarly and grey literature to unpack the linkages between climate change and migration and how these present opportunities and challenges for rural development in Southern Africa.
Research design
The study adopted a systematic review methodology to explore the implications of climate-induced displacement and migration on poverty and household food security in Southern Africa. Scholarly articles and several publications were reviewed, which include, but not limited to, key national documents, organization reports, peer-reviewed articles, books and different Internet sources.
The study was informed by Tawfik et al’.s (2019) step-by-step guide for conducting a systematic review, which emphasizes the importance of developing research questions as a first step to guide the review process. The primary question guiding the review was, ‘How does climate-induced migration affect poverty and food security in Southern Africa?’ Second, the inclusion and exclusion criteria were established to guide the review. The review was confined to articles published between 2000 and 2024 that focus on climate change, migration, displacement, food security, and poverty in Southern Africa. Only studies that provided theoretical insights relevant to these themes were considered. Conversely, the exclusion criteria included articles that were not peer-reviewed, those focusing on regions outside Southern Africa, and studies that did not explicitly address the climate change and migration nexus. Outdated publications and those that lacked a clear methodological framework were also excluded from the review.
A comprehensive search strategy was developed utilizing key words such as migration, climate change, displacement, food security, poverty and development, among others. The searched databases include, but not limited to: Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. A manual search of references in relevant articles was also performed, in addition to the database searches, to identify additional studies on how migration and displacement present challenges and opportunities for rural population regarding household food security. Titles and abstracts of identified studies were then screened for relevance, followed by full-text review to confirm eligibility. Relevant data were systematically extracted from the identified studies, focusing on climate change impacts, migration patterns and socio-economic outcomes, among others. Each selected study was subjected to a quality assessment for methodological rigour to ensure a sound methodology, and collected data were double-checked for accuracy.
Results
Climate change, population displacement and migration
Climate change has been confirmed by global scientific consensus to impact various aspects of rural and urban economies globally and continues to be a major threat to livelihoods in countries of the Global South. Climate-induced disasters have had a profound impact on population migration and displacement in Southern Africa, particularly in countries such as Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Eswatini. Climate change continues to be a concern in these countries and in Southern Africa, in general, where extreme weather events are projected to increase, coupled with rising temperatures as the climate continues to change (Ziervogel et al., 2014). The impacts of these changes will continue to be severe and devastating in different parts of Southern Africa and will manifest through water shortages, food insecurity, infrastructure damages, biodiversity losses and health concerns (Scholes and Engelbrecht, 2021; Ziervogel et al., 2014).
The agrarian-based economy of Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to climate threats which affect life and the environment. Wright and Kapwata (2023) note that climate change will result in the increase of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and storms, in addition to a rise in average mean temperature in the Southern African region. For instance, the 2019 drought in Zimbabwe displaced approximately 2 million people, significantly affecting agricultural productivity and leading to food insecurity. Rural communities were particularly hard-hit, forcing many to migrate to urban areas in search of better livelihoods (SADC, 2020). Similarly, the 2016 drought affected around 1.5 million people, leading to increased rural-to-urban migration (Mastrorillo et al., 2016). Eswatini has also faced climate-induced migration, with droughts contributing to the migration of approximately 30% of rural households over the past decade as communities seek better living conditions elsewhere (Mavuso and Mthembu, 2021). These impacts are projected to lead to widespread crop failure, low crop yield and rising food insecurity, which already characterize most countries in southern Africa (Mamba, 2019; Mamba et al., 2015; Wright and Kapwata, 2023). Exacerbating the severity of the climate change impacts in Southern Africa is the socio-economic and political inequalities and gender disparities which characterize southern African countries (Ngcamu, 2023). It is worth noting that the impacts of climate change such as drought and floods in turn induce migration and displacement of population as people flee vulnerable risky areas to safer spaces.
The relationship between climatic and environmental factors such as floods, drought and storms and other push or pull factors (whether social, political or economic) has been captured in several studies (ADB, 2022; Piguet et al., 2011; Stapleton et al., 2017). Extreme weather events such as floods, hurricanes and storms can also displace people from their place of abode (Jordan, 2021). For example, the 2019 Cyclone Idai in Mozambique caused severe flooding, displacing approximately 400,000 people who were forced to relocate to temporary shelters or migrate to other regions for safety (International Federation of Red Crescent Societies, 2019). Long-term changes in rainfall patterns, sea-level rises, and desertification are also among the indirect impacts of climate change and drivers of population mobility, especially in agriculture-dependent communities (Jordan, 2021).
Terminski (2012) observes that, among the various push factors of migration, environmentally induced displacement constitutes the most dominant human condition that induces forced mobility. The major driving forces of environmentally related migration forces include drought-induced famine, floods and sea-level rise (Fernández et al., 2024; Perch-Nielsen et al., 2008) which already find expression in different countries, forcing millions of people to abandon their areas of residence (Laczko and Aghazarm, 2009). In South Africa, heavy rains and floods in KwaZulu-Natal in 2021 displaced over 10,000 individuals, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and prompting migration to more stable areas (Department of Water and Sanitation, South Africa, 2021). According to a vulnerability assessment by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), marginalized communities are particularly affected due to a lack of resources to adapt to changing climates, resulting in increased migration as a coping mechanism (SADC, 2020). Projections by the World Bank indicate that over 1.5 million people in South Africa alone could be displaced by climate change by 2030 due to increased flood and drought risks (World Bank, 2018).
Furthermore, Laczko and Aghazarm (2009) posit that climate-induced hazards act as ‘trigger’ events and tend to interact with the levels of vulnerability of the hazard-prone areas to create disasters. The massive movement of people driven by climate-related disasters creates challenges in both areas of origin and destination. A comprehensive study by Ritchie and Roser (2020) found that approximately 2.5 million people in Southern Africa were displaced by climate-related disasters between 2000 and 2017, with Zimbabwe and Mozambique being particularly affected. In Ahsan et al.’s (2011) view, cumulative climate-induced displacement results in changes in land-use patterns in urban areas, increases the rate of urban poverty and raises the demand for urban services (Banda and Ncube, 2024; Denga et al., 2022). The displaced people tend to abandon their rural settlements in disaster-prone areas, such as coastal areas, creating direct socio-economic and cultural impacts on the area of origin (Mallick and Vogt, 2014).
Human mobility, poverty and the food security nexus
Climate-induced mobility, which is the movement of people due to changes in climate and environmental conditions, continues to be a dominant feature of Southern African countries where climate change impacts continue to pose serious threats to life, property and infrastructure. Countries such as Eswatini, South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe have been victims of climate change–induced droughts and floods which have resulted in loss of life, property and widespread crop failure (Tevera et al., 2021).
As the projected changes in climate become a reality, Southern African countries are increasingly experiencing persistent natural disasters, with the most recent and remarkable being the 2015/2016 drought contention and the devastating Tropical Cyclone Idai. The 2015/2016 El Niño drought condition resulted in widespread crop failure leading to a 30%–40% drop in maize production and economic loss of E3.8 billion in Eswatini (NDMA, 2017). The same drought resulted in approximately 50% decline in maize production, causing an overall decline of 66% in maize crop yield in various Southern African countries, with 78%, 67%, 63% and 56% decline reported in Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini and Zimbabwe, respectively (Ainembabaz et al., 2018). In the same manner, Tropical Cyclone Idai resulted in massive destruction of property, loss of life and disruption of food systems and food supply chains in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi causing a total damage of at least US$2 billion (Mutasa, 2022; Tevera et al., 2021). More than 1000 people lost their lives with about 3 million affected people, of which 478,000 had to be displaced (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2019; Leahy, 2019; Mutasa, 2022).
Climate-induced migration, which usually creates an imbalance of outmigration, tends to result in loss in seasonal labour for agriculture which consequently affects food production and nutritional security (Migration Data Portal, 2022). A unique trends of itinerants is also noted by Banda and Ncube (2024) through ‘seasonal’ itinerant gold-panning rushes that create bush communities whose activities directly and indirectly conflict with those of communal farmers through ecosystem degradation and resultant land-use land-cover changes (Banda and Ncube, 2024; Denga et al., 2022). Specifically, climate-induced human mobility and displacements tend to disrupt planting and harvesting seasons in the lowveld region of Eswatini (Mamba, 2019; Mamba et al., 2015; NDMA, 2017). In this way, the performance of the agricultural sector is compromised. This could, in turn, compromise household food security. Verme and Schuettler (2019) note that forced displacement of people creates short- to medium-term impacts on household food security in affected communities. The pathways in which this happens are a result of a sudden increase in population shock that is caused by forced displacement in a geographic space. This tends to create additional pressure on the local food systems such as production, storage and distribution channels which fail to meet demand (Becker and Ferrara, 2019; George and Adelaja, 2022; Sarvimäki et al., 2009). Due to the unpredictability of climate-related disasters, people in agricultural areas may be displaced at a critical stage of the agricultural cycle, leading to poor crop performance, poor harvest or labour shortage for harvesting, food preparation and storage. This affects food stocks and food reserves, leading to food insecurity.
Disruption of the agricultural sector due to human mobility has a direct negative impact on the economic well-being of agrarian-based economies of developing countries and may inflate the rate of poverty in these countries. Incidence of forced displacement of massive population also tends to be concentrated in countries that are already facing major development challenges such as developing countries. Literature reveals, for instance, that high levels of population mobility are currently experienced in developing countries such as Somalia, Syria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Columbia, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Yemen, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan, largely due to drought-induced famine and conflicts and that these countries are marked with low economic development. Southern Africa is also a victim of climate-induced displacement which has implications on poverty and household food insecurity (George and Adelaja, 2022).
Population displacement also impacts, negatively, on employment, wages and household income (Calderón-Mejía and Ibáñez, 2016; Esen and Binatli, 2017; Foged and Peri, 2016). Alix-Garcia et al. (2018) and Balkan and Tumen (2016) add that population displacement also has a direct influence on commodity prices (including food prices). These have a direct influence on household economy, rate of poverty and levels of household food security. George and Adelaja (2022) note that the impacts of displacement of population have some spill-over effects on poverty and food security in places even beyond the directly affected regions.
Population displacement and migration have been largely viewed as a negative phenomenon in the migration space; migration optimists view migration as a livelihood diversification strategy that leads to rural development through remittance flow and skills transfer; although this remains a highly contested view, there is a growing body of knowledge that migration presents an opportunity for rural people to sneak out of poverty and can also facilitate reduction in household food insecurity. Returning migrants, who may have been displaced, can potentially bring with them new skills and experiences that could promote agricultural productivity and help improve food production and food security. Remittances play a major role in rural development and rural food security in developing countries (Mamba, 2019). Remittances are perceived to make important contribution to rural development and rural resilience building against shocks as they ensure additional income to spend on food and agricultural development (Szabo et al., 2022).
Migration is, therefore, considered as one important adaptation strategy in rural areas that allows food insecure households to have better access to food and improved livelihood opportunities. Proponents of migration and population mobility, though advocating for population movement due to its benefits, note that mobility requires economic resources (which the poorest and often most vulnerable may lack), thus extreme food insecurity, coupled with poverty can lead to immobility (Zaidan, 2024).
Discussion and analysis
Climate change has been persistently causing significant population displacement and migration and has largely facilitated population mobility in Southern Africa, especially in countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Eswatini (Ibrahim and Mensah, 2022; Mpandeli et al., 2020). The prevailing climatic conditions, coupled with the overreliance on agriculture in the region increases its vulnerability to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and storms. These events have become more recurrent and devastating, causing significant economic disruption, loss of life and destruction of property. The frequency and intensity of climate-induced damages, mainly from recurring extreme weather events in Southern Africa, undoubtedly, present a continuous challenge for the region as more people get displaced while others migrate to safer spaces.
The 2015/2016 drought condition is one climate-induced episode that disrupted rural livelihoods in Eswatini by causing widespread crop failure across the country. This drought triggered water shortages (drying rivers and boreholes) and widespread food shortages that led to increasing household food insecurity. The impacts of this drought, in turn, induced migration and displacement of the Eswatini population who had to flee drought-prone areas that had become food insecure (International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2023). The same drought resulted in food price hike and limited rural–urban food transfers (Mamba, 2019). The socio-economic landscape of rural Eswatini got disrupted as households’ economic situation was compromised, owing to crop failure and death of livestock which exposed several households to poverty. Drought in Eswatini contributed to massive population movement from vulnerable areas to cities for an alternative livelihood option. These findings are supported by Yoo and Agadjanian (2024) who also found an immediate increase in migration rates during a drought peak in Mozambique.
The onset of Tropical cyclone Idai in Mozambique also caused massive displacement of people from affected areas in Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, among others. These countries experienced economic losses, loss of property, loss of life and destruction of infrastructure. This led to the disruption of food systems which contributed to rising food insecurity in affected areas (Tevera et al., 2021). Hurricane Katrina in 2005 also displaced at least 500,000 people in New Orleans which also impacted negatively on the food system and food insecurity (Gabe et al., 2005). These findings confirm Wright and Kapwata’s (2023) observation who notes that climate change leads to widespread crop failure, low crop yield, and rising food insecurity in agrarian-based economies such as southern Africa. The infrastructural and property damages due to cyclones and storms, coupled with population migration and displacement, resulted in the loss of employment in affected areas. Residents were forced to leave risky areas for safer spaces. This is confirmed by different scholars (see Calderón-Mejía and Ibáñez, 2016; Esen and Binatli, 2017; Foged and Peri, 2016) who also observe that population displacement impacts, negatively, on employment, wages and household income.
Although migration is largely viewed as a negative phenomenon, an opposing view exists that migration and population displacement also present opportunities for rural development. Migration in Southern African countries such as Eswatini has been noted to be a livelihood strategy as migrants to towns and cities occasionally send remittances to rural areas for rural investment and for food (Mamba, 2019). Yoo and Agadjanian (2024) argue that migration is one major determinant of development in rural areas and contributes to rural skills development, including social, economic and human development. Research in the Southern African region indicates that for many families, migration is a survival strategy to evade extreme poverty, ensure children’s education, acquire land, and purchase building materials. Consequently, remittances have an undeniable influence on both economic and human development, directly and indirectly.
Considering the significant role of migration in various facets of development, it is essential for governments, businesses and civil society to progressively acknowledge the importance of migration in all aspects of sustainable development. If properly orchestrated, migration can offer advantages to both the source and host countries. These benefits encompass remittances, job creation and the attainment of new knowledge, skills and the transfer of capital.
Conclusion
Climate change, with its increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, has emerged as a significant driver of population displacement and migration, particularly in Southern Africa. These climatic phenomena exacerbate poverty and food insecurity, thereby posing substantial challenges to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goals 1 and 2, which aim to eradicate poverty and hunger.
The impacts of climate change are felt both in rural and urban areas, leading to rural–urban migration driven by persistent crop failure in rural areas. This migration, while posing significant challenges for rural development and leading to the decline in rural food production, also presents potential opportunities for rural development through remittance flow and skills transfer. However, the debate on whether migration is a negative phenomenon, or a positive livelihood diversification strategy remains unresolved due to limited research in this area.
It is important to note that this study has certain limitations. The reliance on secondary data from various sources may introduce biases, and the scope of the review was restricted to specific countries in Southern Africa, which may not fully capture the broader dynamics of climate-induced migration in the region. In addition, the rapidly evolving nature of climate change and its impacts mean that new evidence and developments may not be reflected in this review.
This paper has contributed to the discourse on climate change and migration by exploring the nexus between these phenomena and their implications for development. It has unpacked the complex linkages between climate change, migration and development, shedding light on the challenges and opportunities for rural development in Southern Africa in the face of climate change.
Understanding the intricate dynamics of climate change, migration and development is crucial for formulating effective policies and strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, harness the potential benefits of migration and promote sustainable development in the region.
Footnotes
Acknowledgements
All contributors acknowledged in this section were engaged for informed consent prior to their inclusion in the manuscript. Each contributor provided written consent through an institutional introductory letter outlining their contributions, and they verbally confirmed their agreement to be acknowledged during data collection sessions.
Author’s note
Thabo Ndlovu is now affiliated to Resilience Lead, Mercy Corps, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.
Declaration of conflicting interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Consent for publication
Informed consent for publication was obtained from all participants involved in the study. Participants were informed that their data might be published, and they provided written consent for this purpose. A statement confirming that informed consent was obtained for publication is included in this manuscript, while the actual consent documents are securely held by the researchers, respecting participant confidentiality.
Consent to participate
Informed consent to participate was obtained in both written and verbal forms. Each participant was briefed about the academic purpose of the study supported by the student introductory letter detailing the study’s aims, risks, and benefits. During the data collection phase, researchers reiterated the study’s purpose and engaged participants in a discussion, ensuring that they understood and consented to their participation.
Data availability
The data supporting this study’s findings are available upon request. Participants were informed of this policy and provided their consent to share their data in a manner consistent with research transparency while ensuring confidentiality.
Ethical considerations
The study received student dissertation research approval from the Natural University of Science and Technology. Informed consent was obtained from all participants orally during data collection supported by student introductory letter that explained the study’s objectives and ethical considerations. In addition, verbal consent was confirmed during data collection to ensure that all participants were fully informed and agreeable to their involvement.
Statements and declarations
In this section, it is confirmed that all research participants engaged for informed consent were provided with comprehensive information about the study’s purpose, procedures, and their rights. Participants were informed both through an institutional introductory letter and verbally during data collection, ensuring their understanding and agreement.
