A decision maker must select one of a set of alternatives. The payoff will depend upon the state chosen by a malevolent opponent. This opponent might use deception to cause the decision maker to misperceive the likelihood that the specific state was chosen. The value of this deception is defined in terms of the payoff matrix and these misperceived likelihoods. An example, based on a simplified description of the deception planning surrounding the Normandy invasion in 1944 is included to illustrate the concepts.
References
1.
Baldwin, H. W. (1966) Battles Won and Lost. New York: Harper & Row.
2.
Bennett, P. G. and M. R. Dando (1979) “Complex strategic analysis: a hypergame study of the fall of France.”J. of the Operational Research Society30: 23-32.
3.
Brams, S. (1977) “Deception in 2 X games.”J. of Peace Science2: 171-204.
4.
Carter, V. and R. E. Machol (1971) “Operations research on football.”Operations Research19: 541-544.
5.
Jervis, R. (1968) “Hypotheses on misperception.”World Politics20: 454-478.
6.
Newman, D. J. (1959) “A model for `real' poker.”Operations Research7: 557-560.
7.
Whaley, B. (1978) Initial Thoughts on the Cost-Effectiveness of Deception with Emphasis on the Air War, 1939-1945. Princeton, NJ: Mathtech.
8.
Whaley, B. (1969) Stratagem: Deception and Surprise in War. Cambridge, MA: MIT Center for International Studies.
9.
Wohlstetter, R. (1962) Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Stanford, CA: Stanford Univ. Press.
