Appendix B: Forecast detail

Abstract

Table B1.

Real GDP growth and inflation

	Real GDP growth (per cent)						Annual inflation^(a) (per cent)
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016–20	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016–20
Australia	2.6	3.6	2.4	3.1	2.3	3.3	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.6	2.8	2.6
Austria^(a)	2.9	0.7	0.4	1.2	2.3	2.8	3.6	2.6	2.1	1.7	2.0	1.9
Belgium^(a)	1.8	−0.1	0.2	1.4	1.6	1.1	3.4	2.6	1.2	0.9	1.3	2.3
Bulgaria^(a)	2.0	0.6	0.7	1.5	2.4	2.0	3.4	2.4	0.4	−0.8	2.7	2.8
Brazil	2.7	1.0	2.5	1.3	1.5	3.6	6.6	5.4	6.2	6.3	6.0	6.1
China	9.4	7.7	7.6	7.4	7.2	6.6	5.4	2.7	2.6	2.3	2.9	2.9
Canada	2.5	1.7	2.0	2.3	2.7	2.8	2.1	1.4	1.2	1.7	1.9	1.7
Czech Republic	1.8	−0.9	−0.9	2.1	2.1	3.5	2.1	3.5	1.4	1.0	2.6	2.7
Denmark^(a)	1.1	−0.4	0.4	1.6	2.0	1.9	2.7	2.4	0.5	0.4	1.5	2.3
Estonia^(a)	9.6	3.9	0.8	1.5	3.1	3.2	5.1	4.2	3.2	2.5	3.8	3.7
Finland^(a)	2.8	−1.0	−1.3	0.5	1.9	1.5	3.3	3.2	2.2	1.6	2.1	2.7
France^(a)	2.1	0.4	0.4	0.5	1.9	2.2	2.3	2.2	1.0	0.8	0.7	1.5
Germany^(a)	3.4	0.9	0.5	2.0	1.9	2.0	2.5	2.1	1.6	1.0	1.4	2.1
Greece^(a)	−7.1	−7.0	−3.9	−0.3	1.4	2.6	3.1	1.0	−0.9	−1.3	−0.4	1.1
Hong Kong	4.8	1.5	2.9	3.3	3.5	3.2	3.6	3.2	2.3	2.7	2.7	3.3
Hungary^(a)	1.6	−1.7	1.2	2.7	2.8	3.1	3.9	5.7	1.7	0.5	2.7	2.9
India	7.9	4.9	4.7	5.5	5.8	6.7	8.8	9.4	10.9	7.6	7.5	4.8
Indonesia	6.5	6.3	5.8	5.7	5.4	5.0	5.4	4.3	6.4	6.3	6.0	5.5
Ireland^(a)	2.8	−0.3	0.2	3.3	1.4	2.4	1.2	1.9	0.5	0.6	1.3	0.9
Italy^(a)	0.6	−2.4	−1.8	−0.1	1.3	2.8	2.9	3.3	1.3	0.5	1.3	2.0
Japan	−0.4	1.4	1.5	1.4	0.6	0.8	−0.8	−0.8	−0.2	2.1	1.6	1.2
Lithuania^(a)	6.1	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.4	3.1	4.1	3.2	1.2	0.9	1.6	3.7
Latvia^(a)	5.1	5.0	4.8	3.3	4.7	2.3	4.2	2.3	0.0	1.5	2.4	4.1
Mexico	4.0	4.0	1.1	2.4	3.0	3.2	3.4	4.1	3.8	3.9	3.6	3.4
Netherlands^(a)	1.8	−1.6	−0.7	0.4	2.1	1.9	2.5	2.8	2.6	0.2	0.1	1.7
New Zealand	1.2	2.8	2.4	3.7	3.1	3.3	2.8	0.5	0.6	1.3	1.9	1.8
Norway	1.1	2.8	0.7	1.6	2.2	2.0	1.0	1.1	2.6	1.6	2.1	2.1
Poland^(a)	4.5	2.1	1.5	3.2	3.9	3.6	3.9	3.7	0.8	0.3	1.3	1.9
Portugal^(a)	−1.3	−3.2	−1.4	0.4	2.0	2.5	3.6	2.8	0.4	−0.5	0.2	2.1
Romania^(a)	2.4	0.5	3.5	3.2	2.9	2.2	5.8	3.4	3.2	2.9	3.1	1.6
Russia	4.3	3.5	1.2	−0.1	1.4	4.4	8.4	5.1	6.8	6.6	5.1	5.6
Singapore	6.1	2.5	3.8	2.7	3.9	3.3	5.3	4.6	2.3	2.1	2.8	3.6
South Africa	3.6	2.5	1.9	1.7	3.0	3.4	4.9	5.7	5.2	5.8	6.3	3.4
S. Korea	3.7	2.3	3.0	3.5	3.5	4.4	4.0	2.2	1.3	1.7	2.0	2.6
Slovakia^(a)	3.0	1.8	0.9	2.6	3.2	2.9	4.1	3.7	1.5	1.3	2.3	2.5
Slovenia^(a)	1.0	−2.4	−0.9	0.2	1.8	2.2	2.1	2.8	1.9	1.2	1.6	3.2
Spain^(a)	0.1	−1.6	−1.2	1.1	1.8	2.8	3.1	2.4	1.5	0.1	0.7	2.3
Sweden^(a)	3.0	1.3	1.6	1.8	2.3	2.6	1.4	0.9	0.4	0.4	1.6	1.7
Switzerland	1.8	1.0	2.0	1.6	2.1	2.4	0.0	−1.1	−0.6	0.1	0.6	0.9
Taiwan	4.2	1.5	2.1	3.1	3.2	3.5	0.8	1.1	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.9
Turkey	8.8	2.1	4.0	2.8	3.2	5.4	6.5	8.9	7.5	8.6	6.6	6.4
UK^(a)	1.1	0.3	1.7	3.0	2.3	2.4	4.5	2.8	2.6	1.6	1.8	2.0
US	1.8	2.8	1.9	1.9	3.0	2.9	2.4	1.8	1.1	1.6	2.2	2.5
Vietnam	6.2	5.2	5.4	5.5	5.4	4.4	18.7	9.1	6.6	4.9	6.1	6.4
Euro Area^(a)	1.6	−0.6	−0.4	1.0	1.8	2.3	2.7	2.5	1.3	0.7	1.0	2.0
EU–27^(a)	1.7	−0.3	0.1	1.5	2.0	2.4	3.1	2.6	1.5	0.8	1.3	2.0
OECD	2.0	1.5	1.3	1.9	2.4	2.7	2.4	2.0	1.5	1.8	2.0	2.4
World	3.9	3.2	2.9	3.5	3.7	3.9	5.1	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.4	3.5

Notes: (a)

Harmonised consumer price inflation in the EU economies and inflation measured by the consumer expenditure deflator in the rest of the world.

Table B2.

Fiscal balance and government debt

	Fiscal balance (per cent of GDP)^(a)						Government debt (per cent of GDP, end year)^(b)
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2020	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2020
Australia	−3.6	−2.9	−1.4	−1.0	−1.0	−1.1	26.5	31.8	32.5	31.7	30.9	26.5
Austria	−2.4	−2.6	−1.5	−1.8	−1.5	−2.0	73.0	74.5	74.6	74.2	71.7	63.8
Belgium	−4.0	−4.1	−2.7	−1.5	−0.7	−2.1	99.2	101.1	101.6	99.9	95.2	86.7
Bulgaria	−2.0	−0.8	−0.4	0.8	0.9	−0.6	–	–	–	–	–	–
Canada	−3.7	−3.4	−3.0	−2.2	−1.8	−1.9	91.6	95.3	92.3	91.7	89.0	81.3
Czech Rep.	−3.2	−4.2	−1.5	−1.0	−1.0	−2.4	41.4	46.2	46.0	45.3	44.3	40.5
Denmark	−1.8	−4.1	−0.9	−0.9	−0.5	−1.2	46.4	45.4	44.5	45.1	44.3	40.7
Estonia	1.1	−0.2	1.1	0.1	0.1	−1.1	–	–	–	–	–	–
Finland	−1.0	−2.2	−2.5	−2.0	−1.3	−1.0	49.4	53.7	57.0	57.8	56.7	48.3
France	−5.3	−4.8	−4.2	−4.1	−3.6	−2.6	86.2	90.6	93.4	96.3	97.7	92.9
Germany	−0.8	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.7	−1.2	80.0	81.0	78.4	74.9	70.6	53.1
Greece	−9.6	−8.9	−12.7	−9.3	−7.2	−3.7	170.3	157.2	175.1	184.2	188.5	173.8
Hungary	4.2	−2.2	−2.4	−4.1	−3.1	−1.6	82.1	79.8	79.2	79.9	76.5	64.3
Ireland	−13.0	−8.1	−7.0	−4.4	−5.1	−2.5	104.1	117.4	123.7	124.2	125.2	121.9
Italy	−3.8	−3.0	−3.0	−2.8	−1.9	−0.6	120.7	127.0	132.6	134.5	132.6	102.7
Japan	−8.8	−8.7	−12.0	−11.2	−10.1	−6.5	202.5	213.5	220.9	222.2	222.0	234.7
Lithuania	−5.5	−3.2	−1.9	−1.5	−1.5	−1.5	–	–	–	–	–	–
Latvia	−3.6	−1.3	−0.3	−1.7	−1.9	−1.3	–	–	–	–	–	–
Netherlands	−4.0	−3.7	−2.3	−2.1	−2.1	−2.4	65.7	71.2	73.4	74.9	75.8	74.3
Poland	−5.0	−3.9	−3.5	5.5	−1.7	−0.1	56.2	55.6	57.0	49.2	48.6	36.7
Portugal	−4.3	−6.5	−5.0	−4.1	−2.0	0.1	108.2	124.1	129.0	133.7	133.3	104.9
Romania	−5.6	−3.0	−0.6	−0.2	−0.7	−1.4	–	–	–	–	–	–
Slovakia	−5.1	−4.5	−3.3	−2.1	−1.0	0.1	–	–	–	–	–	–
Slovenia	−6.3	−3.8	−8.6	−5.1	−3.5	−0.6	–	–	–	–	–	–
Spain	−8.7	−6.8	−6.6	−6.4	−5.9	−3.4	70.5	86.0	93.9	100.9	105.4	98.1
Sweden	0.2	−0.2	−1.7	−2.4	−1.9	−1.7	38.7	38.3	40.5	41.8	42.4	42.2
UK	−7.6	−6.1	−5.8	−5.3	−3.8	1.3	84.3	89.1	90.6	92.3	93.3	77.3
US	−10.7	−9.3	−6.4	−5.2	−3.8	−2.5	97.0	101.0	102.5	103.5	102.3	90.2

Notes: (a)

General government financial balance; Maastricht definition for EU countries.

(b)

Maastricht definition for EU countries.

Figure B1.

According to NIESR estimates, world GDP expanded by 1.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2014

Figure B2.

NIESR estimates that world trade grew by 1.2 per cent in 2014Q1

Table B3.

Unemployment and current account balance

	Standardised unemployment rate						Current account balance (per cent of GDP)
	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016–20	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016–20
Australia	5.1	5.2	5.7	5.8	5.7	5.1	−2.8	−4.0	−2.8	−1.5	−2.1	−1.8
Austria	4.2	4.4	4.9	4.7	4.1	4.7	1.6	2.4	2.7	3.4	2.5	1.6
Belgium	7.3	7.7	8.4	8.4	7.3	9.0	−1.1	−1.9	−1.6	−1.3	0.6	−0.2
Bulgaria	11.3	12.3	12.9	11.9	10.2	10.1	0.2	−0.9	2.3	−2.4	−0.2	−1.5
Canada	7.4	7.3	7.1	6.8	6.8	6.8	−2.8	−3.4	−3.2	−2.5	−2.5	−0.8
China	–	–	–	–	–	–	2.1	2.6	2.1	2.3	2.3	1.8
Czech Rep.	6.7	7.0	6.9	6.6	6.3	5.2	−2.7	−1.3	−1.4	−0.6	−3.3	−7.3
Denmark	7.6	7.5	7.0	6.5	6.2	5.7	5.9	6.0	7.3	7.3	8.8	7.7
Estonia	12.4	10.0	8.6	8.2	9.4	9.0	1.9	−1.9	−1.2	−4.2	0.2	0.3
Finland	7.8	7.7	8.2	8.4	7.8	7.6	−0.6	−1.2	−1.0	−0.6	−1.5	−2.4
France	9.2	9.8	10.3	10.2	9.8	8.8	−1.7	−2.1	−1.3	−1.3	−1.9	−2.0
Germany	5.9	5.4	5.3	5.1	4.8	5.1	6.8	7.5	7.6	6.5	6.1	5.2
Greece	17.9	24.5	27.5	25.7	24.6	20.9	−9.9	−2.4	0.7	−0.3	0.1	−0.2
Hungary	10.9	10.9	10.2	8.5	9.1	8.7	0.4	0.8	3.0	1.6	2.9	2.2
Ireland	14.7	14.7	13.1	11.8	10.1	8.6	1.1	4.1	6.2	6.0	5.8	4.2
Italy	8.4	10.6	12.2	12.6	12.2	9.8	−3.0	−0.3	1.0	0.8	1.5	4.2
Japan	4.6	4.3	4.0	3.5	3.2	3.9	2.1	1.1	0.7	−2.5	−1.7	0.9
Lithuania	15.4	13.4	11.8	11.6	12.4	12.3	−1.5	−0.3	1.5	0.7	1.7	5.4
Latvia	16.3	14.9	11.9	11.5	10.8	11.4	−2.4	−2.8	−0.9	2.6	−0.1	−0.6
Netherlands	4.4	5.3	6.7	7.0	5.9	3.7	8.5	8.9	9.7	10.3	9.9	8.9
Poland	9.7	10.1	10.3	9.5	8.6	7.0	−4.3	1.4	−0.8	0.6	1.0	0.9
Portugal	12.9	15.8	16.4	14.8	14.0	12.9	−7.0	−2.0	0.5	−1.0	0.1	1.5
Romania	7.3	7.1	7.3	6.9	7.1	6.7	−6.4	−6.3	−1.5	−0.2	−3.4	−7.1
Slovakia	13.7	14.0	14.2	13.8	13.2	13.1	−1.9	2.0	1.9	3.0	1.2	−1.6
Slovenia	8.2	8.9	10.1	9.9	8.3	7.7	0.4	3.3	6.3	4.2	3.8	3.4
Spain	21.4	24.8	26.1	24.6	23.0	16.5	−3.7	−1.2	0.8	1.1	1.2	2.1
Sweden	7.8	8.0	8.0	8.2	8.2	7.4	6.1	6.0	6.2	3.5	1.8	0.4
UK	8.1	7.9	7.6	6.2	5.8	5.8	−1.5	−3.8	−4.5	−2.8	−2.3	−2.2
US	8.9	8.1	7.4	6.2	5.5	5.7	−3.0	−2.8	−2.4	−2.6	−2.5	−2.5

Figure B3.

NIESR estimates that this year China becomes the world's biggest exporter of goods and services

Figure B4.

Shares in aggregate GDP (2013), based on ICP 2005 and 2011

Table B4.

United States Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	2.5	1.8	2.8	1.9	1.9	3.0	2.9

Consumption	2.0	2.5	2.2	2.0	2.3	2.5	2.5
Investment: housing	−2.5	0.5	12.9	12.2	4.1	9.5	7.6
: business	2.5	7.6	7.3	2.7	5.6	6.8	5.0
Government: consumption	0.1	−2.7	−0.2	−2.0	−0.4	0.3	1.6
: investment	−0.1	−5.2	−3.9	−3.2	−0.6	0.0	1.5
Stockbuilding^(a)	1.4	−0.2	0.2	0.2	−0.2	0.0	0.0
Total domestic demand	2.9	1.7	2.6	1.7	2.1	2.9	2.9

Export volumes	11.5	7.1	3.5	2.7	4.4	5.5	4.8
Import volumes	12.8	4.9	2.2	1.4	4.9	4.4	4.5

Average earnings	2.2	2.1	2.0	1.2	2.0	3.2	4.0
Private consumption deflator	1.7	2.4	1.8	1.1	1.6	2.2	2.5
RPDI	1.4	2.6	2.1	0.8	2.5	2.5	2.4
Unemployment, %	9.6	8.9	8.1	7.4	6.2	5.5	5.7

General Govt. balance as % of GDP	−12.2	−10.7	−9.3	−6.4	−5.2	−3.8	−2.9
General Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	92.9	97.0	101.0	102.5	103.5	102.3	94.9

Current account as % of GDP	−3.0	−3.0	−2.8	−2.4	−2.6	−2.5	−2.5

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis.

Table B5.

Canada Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	3.4	2.5	1.7	2.0	2.3	2.7	2.8

Consumption	3.4	2.3	1.9	2.4	2.5	2.5	1.6
Investment: housing	8.7	1.6	6.1	−0.3	−2.1	−0.1	1.0
: business	14.2	10.9	6.1	1.1	0.3	5.2	3.4
Government: consumption	2.7	0.8	1.1	0.6	0.1	1.0	2.2
: investment	10.5	−7.0	0.5	−1.0	−0.6	5.0	2.9
Stockbuilding^(a)	0.3	0.5	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0
Total domestic demand	5.2	2.8	2.3	1.9	1.5	2.4	1.9

Export volumes	6.9	4.7	1.5	2.2	2.8	4.1	5.1
Import volumes	13.6	5.7	3.1	1.1	0.1	3.0	2.3

Average earnings	1.4	3.6	2.3	1.8	2.1	2.1	2.7
Private consumption deflator	1.4	2.1	1.4	1.2	1.7	1.9	1.7
RPDI	2.2	2.2	2.4	2.2	1.9	1.5	1.4
Unemployment, %	8.0	7.4	7.3	7.1	6.8	6.8	6.8

General Govt. balance as % of GDP	−4.9	−3.7	−3.4	−3.0	−2.2	−1.8	−1.8
General Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	87.7	91.6	95.3	92.3	91.7	89.0	83.9

Current account as % of GDP	−3.5	−2.8	−3.4	−3.2	−2.5	−2.5	−0.8

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis.

Table B6.

Japan Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	4.7	−0.4	1.4	1.5	1.4	0.6	0.8

Consumption	2.8	0.3	2.1	2.0	1.3	−0.3	−0.4
Investment: housing	−4.8	5.1	2.9	8.8	8.9	2.4	2.2
: business	0.7	4.1	3.6	−1.4	4.5	1.3	5.4
Government: consumption	1.9	1.2	1.7	2.0	1.5	0.6	0.6
: investment	0.1	−7.7	2.2	11.5	3.8	−0.1	1.0
Stockbuilding^(a)	0.9	−0.2	0.1	−0.3	−0.1	0.7	0.0
Total domestic demand	2.9	0.5	2.3	1.8	2.0	0.9	0.8

Export volumes	24.5	−0.4	−0.1	1.6	8.8	3.9	4.3
Import volumes	11.1	5.9	5.4	3.4	11.6	5.7	4.8

Average earnings	−1.4	0.9	−0.6	1.1	1.6	1.5	2.0
Private consumption deflator	−1.7	−0.8	−0.8	−0.2	2.1	1.6	1.2
RPDI	2.3	0.7	0.7	2.4	−0.7	0.4	−0.7
Unemployment, %	5.1	4.6	4.3	4.0	3.5	3.2	3.9

Govt. balance as % of GDP	−8.3	−8.8	−8.7	−12.0	−11.2	−10.1	−7.7
Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	193.0	202.5	213.5	220.9	222.2	222.0	230.7

Current account as % of GDP	3.9	2.1	1.1	0.7	−2.5	−1.7	0.9

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis.

Table B7.

Euro Area Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	1.9	1.6	−0.6	−0.4	1.0	1.8	2.3

Consumption	1.0	0.3	−1.4	−0.6	0.9	1.4	1.4
Private investment	0.4	2.2	−3.2	−2.3	1.7	2.9	5.0
Government: consumption	0.6	−0.1	−0.6	0.2	0.6	0.3	1.5
: investment	−4.1	−2.6	−3.9	0.7	2.1	−0.7	1.5
Stockbuilding^(a)	0.7	0.2	−0.4	−0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
Total domestic demand	1.3	0.6	−2.0	−0.7	1.2	1.4	2.1

Export volumes	11.4	6.7	2.7	1.5	3.1	5.5	4.4
Import volumes	9.8	4.7	−0.8	0.4	3.7	5.0	4.3

Average earnings	1.0	1.6	1.9	1.4	1.0	2.0	3.1
Harmonised consumer prices	1.6	2.7	2.5	1.3	0.7	1.0	2.0
RPDI	−0.5	−0.4	−1.4	−0.8	1.1	1.3	1.9
Unemployment, %	10.1	10.1	11.3	12.0	11.6	10.9	9.3

Govt. balance as % of GDP	−6.2	−4.2	−3.7	−3.0	−2.6	−2.0	−1.7
Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	85.6	87.5	90.8	92.7	94.1	92.3	84.2

Current account as % of GDP	0.1	0.1	1.4	2.4	2.4	2.6	2.7

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis; Maastricht definition.

Table B8.

Germany Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	3.9	3.4	0.9	0.5	2.0	1.9	2.0

Consumption	1.0	2.3	0.7	1.0	1.6	2.0	1.8
Investment: housing	4.1	9.2	1.9	0.6	6.0	3.8	5.6
: business	6.7	6.8	−2.1	−1.7	4.5	3.0	1.9
Government: consumption	1.3	1.0	1.0	0.4	1.1	1.7	1.5
: investment	−0.9	2.6	−7.1	2.5	7.3	−6.0	0.7
Stockbuilding^(a)	0.6	0.0	−0.6	0.2	0.6	0.0	0.1
Total domestic demand	2.3	2.9	−0.3	0.8	2.8	2.1	2.0

Export volumes	14.8	8.1	3.8	1.1	3.2	5.5	4.6
Import volumes	12.3	7.5	1.8	1.6	5.0	6.3	5.0

Average earnings	0.9	2.7	3.4	2.3	1.6	3.0	3.7
Harmonised consumer prices	1.2	2.5	2.1	1.6	1.0	1.4	2.1
RPDI	1.0	1.8	0.7	0.5	1.8	1.6	2.0
Unemployment, %	7.1	5.9	5.4	5.3	5.1	4.8	5.1

Govt. balance as % of GDP	−4.2	−0.8	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.7	−0.4
Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	82.5	80.0	81.0	78.4	74.9	70.6	59.7

Current account as % of GDP	6.2	6.8	7.5	7.6	6.5	6.1	5.2

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis; Maastricht definition.

Table B9.

France Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	1.9	2.1	0.4	0.4	0.5	1.9	2.2

Consumption	1.7	0.3	−0.5	0.3	0.1	1.5	1.4
Investment: housing	1.5	1.0	−2.2	−3.1	−7.6	−1.0	5.9
: business	3.1	4.7	1.0	−0.5	1.2	5.2	2.8
Government: consumption	1.2	1.0	1.7	2.0	1.5	0.7	1.5
: investment	−1.0	−4.4	1.6	1.1	1.6	−0.1	1.4
Stockbuilding^(a)	0.5	0.9	−0.5	−0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total domestic demand	2.1	1.8	−0.2	0.2	0.2	1.6	1.8

Export volumes	8.6	7.1	1.2	2.4	2.9	5.5	4.7
Import volumes	8.5	6.6	−1.2	1.9	3.2	4.2	3.2

Average earnings	1.8	2.5	2.3	1.2	2.5	2.9	3.3
Harmonised consumer prices	1.7	2.3	2.2	1.0	0.8	0.7	1.5
RPDI	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.6	1.3	2.0	1.8
Unemployment, %	9.3	9.2	9.8	10.3	10.2	9.8	8.8

Govt. balance as % of GDP	−7.1	−5.3	−4.8	−4.2	−4.1	−3.6	−2.8
Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	82.8	86.2	90.6	93.4	96.3	97.7	95.1

Current account as % of GDP	−1.3	−1.7	−2.1	−1.3	−1.3	−1.9	−2.0

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis; Maastricht definition.

Table B10.

Italy Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	1.7	0.6	−2.4	−1.8	−0.1	1.3	2.8

Consumption	1.5	−0.3	−4.0	−2.6	0.3	1.2	1.7
Investment: housing	−0.4	−6.I	−6.7	−5.9	−3.0	−2.4	8.8
: business	5.9	1.5	−7.9	−5.1	−1.8	−0.6	7.6
Government consumption	−0.4	−1.3	−2.6	−0.8	0.0	−0.7	0.9
: investment	−16.3	−4.5	−12.3	1.2	1.3	−0.2	1.2
Stockbuilding^(a)	1.2	0.0	−0.4	−0.2	−0.2	0.4	0.0
Total domestic demand	2.2	−0.8	−4.9	−2.8	−0.4	0.8	2.6

Export volumes	11.2	6.9	2.0	0.0	2.5	4.4	4.5
Import volumes	12.3	1.4	−7.1	−2.9	2.0	3.2	4.1

Average earnings	2.2	1.1	1.2	1.4	0.9	0.0	1.1
Harmonised consumer prices	1.6	2.9	3.3	1.3	0.5	1.3	2.0
RPDI	−0.8	−0.8	−4.7	−1.3	0.9	0.2	2.3
Unemployment, %	8.4	8.4	10.6	12.2	12.6	12.2	9.8

Govt. balance as % of GDP	−4.5	−3.8	−3.0	−3.0	−2.8	−1.9	−0.6
Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	119.4	120.7	127.0	132.6	134.5	132.6	114.5

Current account as % of GDP	−3.4	−3.0	−0.3	1.0	0.8	1.5	4.2

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis; Maastricht definition.

Table B11.

Spain Percentage change

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Average2016–20
GDP	−0.2	0.1	−1.6	−1.2	1.1	1.8	2.8

Consumption	0.2	−1.2	−2.8	−2.1	1.9	1.1	1.1
Investment: housing	−11.4	−12.5	−8.7	−8.0	−5.9	−5.3	6.3
: business	0.5	1.1	−8.0	−3.6	7.8	8.7	10.4
Government consumption	1.5	−0.5	−4.8	−2.3	−1.2	−2.3	3.2
: investment	0.0	0.0	−0.2	−1.4	−1.0	0.8	3.2
Stockbuilding^(a)	0.3	−0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total domestic demand	−0.6	−2.I	−4.I	−2.8	1.0	0.6	3.0

Export volumes	11.7	7.6	2.1	4.9	4.4	6.1	3.7
Import volumes	9.3	−0.1	−5.7	0.4	4.4	2.6	4.6

Average earnings	0.0	0.3	−0.4	0.4	−1.3	1.0	3.4
Harmonised consumer prices	2.0	3.1	2.4	1.5	0.1	0.7	2.3
RPDI	−4.8	−2.9	−4.5	−3.6	−0.3	1.0	1.7
Unemployment, %	19.9	21.4	24.8	26.1	24.6	23.0	16.5

Govt. balance as % of GDP	−9.4	−8.7	−6.8	−6.6	−6.4	−5.9	−4.3
Govt. debt as % of GDP^(b)	61.7	70.5	86.0	93.9	100.9	105.4	102.2

Current account as % of GDP	−4.5	−3.7	−1.2	0.8	1.1	1.2	2.1

Note: (a)

Change as a percentage of GDP.

(b)

End–of–year basis; Maastricht definition.