Abstract
On my way to Lithuania’s capital Vilnius, I started to read Baltic: The Future of Europe in the plane. I had bought the book in a rush at the airport because the title caught my eye. I expected that it focused mainly on the three small Baltic states, thus serving as a good preparation for my visit to Lithuania. It certainly did that, but it offered much more: the author, Berlin-based The Times-journalist Oliver Moody, has convinced me that the area around the Baltic Sea deserves far more attention than it currently receives. According to Moody, the eight Baltic Sea states – comprising Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – form a new power bloc that is playing an increasingly significant role as a counterweight to Russia. And if we are not careful, it could become the new geopolitical conflict zone in Europe. As Moody sees it, the security situation on the European continent has fundamentally changed since Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022. Notably, in neighbouring countries, fears of similar aggression exist, while incidents (e.g. sabotage of pipelines and undersea cables) and Russian pressure through military, cyber and hybrid means increase uncertainty in the region regarding security. In particular, countries bordering Russian territory, such as Finland and the three Baltic states, are asking themselves: when will we suffer the same fate as Ukraine?
Moody substantiates his argument that the Baltic Sea region could become the front line of a future conflict in Europe well and does so in an accessible way. Unlike many strategic analyses, his treatise is not loaded with generalities, abstractions and jargon. Instead, following an introduction (beginning on the Swedish island of Fårö in the heart of the Baltic Sea region), he takes the reader on a fascinating journey. In chapters between 25 and 30 pages, all Baltic Sea countries – except for Sweden – are dealt with. Country by country, he discusses current security issues, drawing on historical backgrounds and national cultural specificities. Moody’s analysis is not only based on literature and media resources but also on interviews with government officials, military leaders, experts and ordinary citizens. According to Moody, ‘resilience’ is a top priority in four countries: Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Denmark. For instance, he explains how in Finland (Chapter 2) centuries of interaction with Russia have led to a pragmatic policy focused on ‘Total Defence’, deterrence and readiness. He travels to Bornholm (Chapter 4) to tell the story of Denmark’s pursuit of strategic autonomy in energy supply: here, investing in green energy is not only considered climate-friendly but also seen as a way to reduce dependence on Russian gas and oil. Moody characterises Poland, Germany and Lithuania with the term ‘resistance’. He demonstrates, for example, how the Solidarność movement in Gdańsk against communism during the 1980s was decisive for Poland’s economic and political development (Chapter 5). In fact, Solidarność is a template of resistance for Europe as a whole – an ‘unfinished revolution’ that now, however, is accompanied by substantial investment in defence.
In the final part of the book, entitled ‘Survival’, Moody explores how the looming conflict in the Baltic Sea region might unfold in the coming years. To this end, he analyses the Kremlin’s view of the West (Chapter 8) and how Europe should position itself in this respect (Chapters 9 and 10). On the latter point, Moody is clear: he advocates a strong European deterrent as a prerequisite for preventing escalation in the Baltic Sea region, whereby security must not be understood solely in military terms. It also requires democratic resilience (e.g. ways to recognise and handle fake news), strategic autonomy (particularly when it comes to the energy and digital domain) and, above all, regional solidarity (cooperation between the Baltic Sea countries, such as joint military trainings and cross-border emergency scenarios). Moody has every confidence in the Baltic Sea states to achieve this, but that is not enough: also EU-officials must know that the region is not a remote corner in Europe, but crucial to the continent’s future.
Moody realises that his book, the text of which was finalised in the autumn of 2024, was already out of date by the time it was published. Precisely for that reason, he argues, he decided to analyse the deeper trends and extrapolate from them. In my view, he has succeeded in this. The reader is not only offered a new perspective on Europe but also learns a great deal about the individual countries in the Baltic Sea region. In an earlier review of the book (Matthews, 2025), Moody is criticised a bit for his biased historical perspective, notably on Estonia and Latvia (Chapters 1 and 3), and for not telling the whole story. As a non-historian, I find that hard to judge. But as a geographer, I can say that Moody’s book demonstrates well how much countries are ‘prisoners of geography’ (Marshall, 2025). Take the small country of Lithuania (Chapter 7), located between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the one hand and Belarus (maintaining close ties with Russia) on the other hand. This, combined with the experiences of Russian influence during the Russian Empire and under the Soviet Union, explains why Lithuanians view the future with such mistrust and embrace the EU and NATO so strongly. During my stay in Vilnius, for example, I saw a mural of a blue-white NATO umbrella under which people were taking shelter – an image that I can put in perspective after reading this insightful book.
