Book review: Narendra Jadhav,New-age Technology and Industrial Revolution 4.0: Global Public Policy Issues in Economy,Democracy,National Security and World Peace

In the introductory chapter itself, the author very neatly indicates what the book attempts to do: ‘The book discusses the emerging New-Age Technology underlying the Industrial Revolution 4.0, brings out opportunities and threats arising from and makes an attempt to identify and analyse relevant public issues in the global context’ (p. 1). After briefly discussing the historical evolution of technology beginning with the creation of fire and its manipulation, the introductory chapter broadly introduces new-age technology, its threats and opportunities.

The industrial era beginning from 1750 witnessed four revolutions—the first Industrial Revolution (1750–1870) began with the use of steam-powered engines and the development of iron and textile industries; the second Industrial Revolution (1870–1914) replaced steam with water and electricity enabling mass production; and information technology has driven the third Industrial Revolution from 1980 onwards. Breakthroughs in communication and connectivity, but not any advances in technology, have distinguished the current Industrial Revolution 4.0, according to Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairperson of the World Economic Forum. Several exponential technologies (when performance improves without additional cost) such as robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML) and big data, make up Industrial Revolution 4.0. Because of the combinatorial effect of diverse technologies and the resultant synergy, this emerging technology is also called the post-digital revolution fusion technology or new-age technology. It is this area that Narendra Jadhav’s fascinating book focusses on.

The book has been structured in four parts. The first gives an overview of new-age technology under Industrial Revolution 4.0, discussing AI and ML, big data and data analytics, each one under a separate chapter. The second deals with the potential implications of emerging technology, discussing its implications for global economic growth and human development; on socio-economic inequalities and on the financial system of the future. Part three discusses global public issues with a focus on serious concerns and anxieties that have been unleashed by new-age technologies. It discusses issues such as the right to privacy, social media and democratic governance, cybersecurity, surveillance, weaponisation of technology, national security and global peace and finally issues concerning regulation and strategic development of emerging technologies. This last part really justifies the subtitle of the book. Part four covers India as a case study, giving an overview of its experience in the development of new-age technology and related policy issues.

The first chapter under the first part deals with AI and ML. After giving a brief history of AI, the chapter discusses what it means, how it compares with human intelligence, then explains how ML and deep learning, a subset of ML, teaches itself using artificial neural networks. The author broadly flags the potential application of AI in areas such as manufacturing, healthcare and space exploration. At the same time, he indicates the limitations of AI in terms of possible discriminatory behaviour, lack of accountability and incapability to introspect. The concluding part of the chapter contains a very interesting discussion on the issue of AI control, citing the apprehensions of Elon Musk along with several other prominent technologists who ‘believe that AI is a greater risk to human existence than nuclear and that it could be [the] immortal dictator and suggest the regulation of AI research as a solution’ (p. 29). Nevertheless, the race among nations and corporates to win AI continues unabated.

Chapter two, under part A, noting the significance of data for Industrial Revolution 4.0, discusses the basics of big data and data analytics. How big should data be to qualify as big data? The size of big data expands with the increase in technological capacity to store, communicate and compute information which has been doubling every 40 months since the 1980s. Data analytics relates to transforming data into value. With its growing use in decision-making by the public, in the private sector, big data and data analytics is a rapidly growing industry, increasing at the rate of 10 per cent per annum. The quality of data and diverse sources including cross-border widen the scope for AI. Cross-border data flows keep the cost of scaling and automation down while contributing to innovation and efficiency.

The growing size and fast pace of cross-border data flows have led to, says the author, ‘digital globalisation’. However, protectionist policies and a number of barriers have challenged ‘global digitisation’. While there are some legitimate concerns such as data privacy, cybersecurity and protecting ‘domestic digital platforms’, restrictive protectionism will deprive the world economy of enormous benefits of digital globalisation. The third chapter under AI deals with six other major constituents of new-age technology, that is, robotics, blockchain, automated technology, additive manufacturing, the Internet of Things (IoT) and Augmented Reality (AR).

The section on robotics begins by explaining robots, defined by the Robotics Institute of America as ‘reprogrammable multifunctional manipulator designed to move materials, parts, tools, or specialized devices through variable programmed motions for the performance of a variety of tasks’ (p. 40), broadly indicating its evolution process. Robots have advanced from being big machines with significant strength (brawn) to having today a physical structure (bone) according to the work it does and finally robotic intelligence (brain). Robots are deployed to perform repetitive tasks such as assembling products, handling hazardous materials and tasks as diverse as cleaning sewers and detecting bombs. Equipped with more intelligence, robots have started executing more complex tasks, indicating their potential in supporting humans in performing their various jobs. However, the section ends with a thoughtful warning as stated by Stephen Hawking: ‘Unless mankind redesigns itself by changing our DNA through altering our genetic makeup, computer-generated robots will take over our world ’ (p. 40).

The next section discusses blockchain technology which ‘is essentially a digital ledger of financial transaction that is non-corruptible’ (p. 48). Blockchain is basically a chain of blocks that contain records and these blocks are linked using cryptography. The book explains the step-by-step process of this technology to show how blockchain technology has ‘the potential to fundamentally change the modern digital economy’ (p. 48). Finally, it discusses the main features of this technology.

Automated technology relates to the execution of tasks with minimum or no human intervention. It can perform efficient multiple tasks that are repetitive and monotonous for human beings. With advancement of technology, the range of activities that it can perform efficiently has widened. However, being labour saving, this technology will be a threat to human employment.

Additive manufacturing technologies, another constituent of new-age technology can build 3D objects by adding layer upon layer of material which can be of plastic, metal, concrete or even human tissue. It covers a wide range of technologies such as 3D printing, Rapid Prototyping (RP), Direct Digital Manufacturing (DDM), layered manufacturing and additive fabrication. The 3D printing technology can produce almost everything from toys to machine parts. The flip side of additive manufacturing technology is that it makes it easier for individuals to manufacture weapons, leading to security risks. The IoT, says the author, is essentially a technology-enabled ‘Network of all Networks’. It has many uses in the real world with applications in services ranging from consumer to manufacturing. As Mehul Nayak puts it: ‘Internet of Things is changing and transforming everything from business to life. Imaginations are boundless and opportunities are infinite’ (p. 55).

Another constituent of new-age technology is AR which is essentially an enhanced version of reality. ‘Unlike virtual reality, which requires one to go into an entirely virtual environment, augmented reality simply overlays virtual information on top of the natural environment’ (p. 56). This technology is being used in multiple ways such as Google, Sky, AR Maps, app and retail shopping by ‘bridging the gap between digital and physical worlds’ (p. 56).

Part two of the book deals with the potential implications of new-age technology. AI could significantly augment labour productivity and thereby ‘overall global GDP’. AI, combined with other constituents of new-age technologies, can have an enormous positive growth impact. As the McKinsey Global Institute Report (September 2018) suggests, automation of labour will contribute 41 per cent while innovation 27 per cent to the gross incremental GDP. However, the adoption of these technologies will be uneven both within and across countries. There have been increasing breakthroughs and innovations in all sectors. For example, emerging technologies can provide wider access to product innovations, cutting-edge agricultural practices as well as market developments. Innovations in crop genetics, organic agriculture as also in irrigation and infrastructure can benefit small farmers in terms of productivity gain. However, the immense potential benefits of new-age technology can be made accessible to both developed and developing countries only by closing the digital divide between them. Similarly, AI and other emerging technologies can hugely contribute to human development. In education, for example, if the public sector ensures digital access, a brick-and-click approach can improve education in terms of expansion, excellence, equity and enterprise. This will enable many developing countries to harness the available demographic dividend. The range of applications of the emerging technology for social development that the McKinsey discussion paper outlines are—health and hunger; educational challenges; environmental challenges; crisis response; and infrastructure management.

While discussing various possibilities and potentials of the emerging technology, the author has not ignored its possible downside. The most serious concern regarding new-age technology relates to machines displacing and replacing human labour. Several studies have been cited to bring forth that there is no unique conclusion. Optimists hold that technology can be job disruptive in the short run, while a negative impact on jobs will be smoothed out in the longer run through the generation of new activities. Pessimists maintain that emerging technologies will lead to lasting joblessness. Briefly put, technological advancement engenders job loss, while at the same time stressing the need for reskilling. The author has cited Novosilka who suggests, ‘when physical jobs are lost due to automation, jobs for the mind open up’ (p. 74).

Another downside of emerging technologies is its impact on socio-economic inequality. The discussion on the possible nexus between emerging new-age technologies and socio-economic inequalities against the backdrop of a theoretical perspective and the global and national status of inequality is both interesting and illuminating. Notably, theoretical models do not provide ‘a reasonable explanation of pattern of income distribution over longer time periods’ (p. 82). The findings of empirical studies on new-age technology and its impact on economic inequality are ambiguous. It basically depends on ‘whether the inequality-reducing forces outweigh the inequality-increasing factors’ (p. 87). Equally noteworthy is the causation from inequality to technology. This can be illustrated in terms of the digital divide within the rural–urban divide and the gender divide. These two divides emanate from differential access to connectivity across rural–urban areas and genders, thereby impacting the access and effective deployment of the emerging technology. Public policy can play a critical role in closing such divides and turning a vicious circle into a virtuous circle by creating enabling conditions for rural and urban populations as well as men and women to equally access and make effective use of emerging technology.

While the emerging technology can place the global economy on a high growth trajectory, there can be widespread job losses and widening economic and social disparities. The social implications of such a phenomenon can be very serious. It can lead to social unrest, civil uprising and political turbulence. At the same time, there can be deeper social, economic and psychological ramifications of permanent job losses due to new-age technology. However, if the loss of jobs without loss of lifestyle can be possible, humans would have ‘the time and freedom to contemplate on these issues, in their own enlightened collective self-interest’ (p. 92).

Like any other sector of the economy, new-age technology has also disrupted the financial system. The confluence or fusion of several exponential technologies such as AI, ML, big data analysis and cloud computing ‘means that cyber-physical systems can interact with each other to produce, distribute, and trade across the world in a massively distributed system of production’ (p. 97). Traditionally, the financial system of a nation comprises banking systems and a non-bank financial sector that includes equity, bond and commodity markets in addition to the insurance sector. ‘Fin Techs’ and ‘Tech Fins’ being empowered by AI and big data analytics have come to provide consumers easy access to various financial services and thus technology giants build up ‘enormous large customer bases and deep pockets’ causing disruption to the global financial system’ (p. 97). In this process, banking–finance 4.0 is emerging. The author marks out various dimensions of emerging banking–finance and also deliberates on the future of financial services including competition between banks and non-bank financial instruments, growth and development of E-commerce and cryptocurrencies. Finally, in view of unfolding banking–finance 4.0, the author points to the imperatives of central banks to adopt a new approach to regulate its evolution.

Part three takes up important global public policy issues that new-age technology has unleashed. Issues relate to the right to privacy, social media and democratic governance, cybersecurity, surveillance, weaponisation and threat to national security and global peace and regulation and strategic development. The author has deliberated on each of these six vital public issues that have emerged in the trail of new-age technology. Drawing from major studies/reports, he has thoughtfully explained each of the first five issues—its nature, implications, dimensions, ramifications, cross-country experiences wherever needed and areas for policy action. On the last issue, that is, the ‘regulation and strategic development’ outlined in Chapter 13 to start with, Jadhav underscores that at the rate at which new-age technology is advancing, it is extremely difficult for regulation to keep pace with it. The discussion on AI strategies adopted by the USA, Russia and China provides a broad perspective of regulation and strategic development of the new-age technology underlying Industrial Revolution 4.0. The discourse has been taken up under two categories—the regulation of AI and banking–finance 4.0. As for AI, issues such as legal, data localisation, international cooperation on data sharing and international cooperation on privacy have been highlighted. Jadhav has covered the relevant aspects on each of these issues and provided useful insights. Similarly, while discussing banking–finance 4.0, he has scanned important studies relating to various dimensions of a regulatory mechanism that is necessitated in this age of ever-advancing digital technologies. Such a mechanism will be required ‘not only to regulate the digital markets but also to deploy new technologies in the regulatory process’ (p. 206).

Part four gives an overview of the Indian experience. To begin with, the book sketches out the emergence of new-age technology in India, particularly in the areas of education, health, money and finance, digital payments and agriculture. Then it delineates India’s policy perspectives and initiatives in the areas of AI, big data and privacy issues, cybersecurity and surveillance. It highlights how emerging technologies are evolving in India, outlining strategies and actually how these are works-in-progress. Finally, it suggests,

larger public investment in AI research as well as in skill development commensurate with New-Age Technology and a progressive law based on the principles enshrined in the Supreme Court judgment of right to privacy are the need of the hour. For India, it is crucial to balance the need to deploy technology for development, while at the same time protecting the privacy and security of millions of citizens. (p. 224)

Overall, this is a valuable book, introducing the uninitiated reader to the world of fast-growing frontier technologies, covering various aspects, and informing the curious of the huge potential and threats. It underscores the imperatives of evolving policy perspectives to keep pace with new-age technologies as also the need to develop skills commensurate with rapid advancements. Jadhav is at his best when explaining technical concepts in a lucid style, using simple language. It is a very good read and a great learning experience. One gets a clear picture of how a ‘brave new world’ is shaping. Policymakers will gain from the insights on each of the exponential technologies derived from major studies, reports as well as cross-country experiences. Briefly, the book is a very useful contribution on an exceedingly significant contemporary phenomenon and the author deserves a huge compliment for this volume.

However, Jadhav’s concluding remark about India ‘ushering into an era of high productivity where technology will play a key role in facilitating and sustaining economic growth and development’ (p. 224) should be viewed keeping in mind the country’s hard realities of inadequacy and differentiated access to digital infrastructure across organised and unorganised sectors, rural and urban India, gender and the haves and have-nots. As Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General, UNCTAD has observed in his preface to the Technology and Innovation Report 2021:

Recent developments in frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence, robotics and biotechnology, have shown tremendous potential for sustainable development. Yet, they also risk increasing inequalities by exacerbating and creating new digital divides between the technology haves and have-nots. The COVID-19 pandemic has further exposed this dichotomy. Technology has been a critical tool for addressing the spread of the disease, but not everyone has equal access to the benefits. (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2021)