The Estimation and use of Confidence Intervals in Economic Analysis

This paper summarizes the different methods used to estimate confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios, along with their main strengths and weaknesses. We then examine the cost-effectiveness panel's recommendation on how to use these confidence intervals in decision making. We conclude that the guidelines on the use of confidence intervals need to be based in decision theory, and that further work is needed to guide the use of confidence intervals in health care decision making. We propose Bayesian analysis as a promising theoretical framework for integrating uncertainty into health economic analysis.