The plastics business-features large cyclical swings, both short and long term, and effective planning demands an appreciation of the mechanisms involved. Long-term plastics growth is typically 3% pa, but year-on-year growth or deline of 15-20% is normal rather than unusual, and such movements need to be anticipated. This paper outlines work developed during the 1970s in ICI Plastics Division (now a constituent part of Petrochemicals and Plastics Division), aimed at improving forecasting performance for plastics products by incorporating cyclical factors.
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