Abstract
Regardless of the challenges facing renewable energy development in today’s world, hydropower is still the most broadly patronized source of renewable energy, with a global installed capacity of 1330 GW in 2020. Hydropower contributes the largest share of the total installed renewable energy globally, accounting for more than 54% of renewable energy generation capacity worldwide. In this 21st century, the quest for a global shift to a carbon-emission-free future has been epitomized by China through its way of overcoming some crucial challenges to becoming the number one hydropower producer in the world. China is currently the top exporter of its hydropower technology and expertise to a reasonably significant number of countries across the globe. Due to failed energy policy implementation, Nigeria, on the other hand, has been languishing in air pollution from fossil fuel energy generation due to poor and erratic electrical energy supply from the grid, despite its enormous hydropower potential. However, a resurgence of Nigeria’s National renewable energy and Energy Efficiency Policy in 2015 resulted in a consortium signed between China and Nigeria, placing China at the helm of reviving Nigeria’s hydropower industry, yielding some positive outcomes so far. A partnership between technologically advanced and undeveloped countries, particularly Africa, is required to overcome significant avoidable hydropower constraints towards attaining their full hydropower output potential. In this way, the imperative to guaranteeing a globally cleaner and more sustainable energy future is more reassuring.
Keywords
Introduction
In today’s technologically sophisticated world, the necessity of developing Renewable Energy (RE) resources could be attributable to its inevitable role in our livelihood and economic growth. Electricity today is the primary driver of economic growth. The most significant challenge facing highly developed and developing countries is ensuring an adequate environmentally friendly and sustainable energy supply. Two of the most critical global concerns in recent years, resulting in increasing demand for the use of renewable energies, are the gradual depletion of fossil fuel energy resources and increasing GHG emissions. 1 RE offers significant benefits to humans and their environment. 2 They include pollution and global warming reduction, 3 boosting public health, 4 employment opportunities, 5 and other economic benefits. 6 Renewable energies are undergoing a worldwide upwards trend, and their growth is set to increase in the near future, indicating the need for adequate progression. The world generated about 5.9 TWh of conventional RE in 2016, reflecting a 5–6-fold growth since the 1960s. 7 The largest-ever surge in renewable power generation was witnessed in 2017, attributable to affordability, investment opportunities, and enhanced technologies. 8 Toward the end of 2017, RE generation surged globally by 167 GW and peaked at 2179 GW, inclining at an annual rate of 8.3%. 9 RE capacity grew 7.9% during 2018 and will likely reach 12.4% by the year 2023, thus accounting for over 70% of global electricity growth. 10 In 2020, the utilization of RE grew by 3%, while demand for all other sources declined. This was driven primarily by a nearly 7% increase in electricity generation from renewable sources. 11 As a result, renewables accounted for 29% of worldwide electricity generation in 2020, growing from 27% in 2019. RE output is expected to grow by more than 8% in 2021, reaching 8300 TWh, the highest annual growth rate since the 1970s. 11
Hydropower is energy sourced from flowing water. Over 2000 years ago, in ancient Greece, the Greeks used water to drive wheels for milling grains; today, it is a very affordable means of generating energy and is often the preferred method where applicable. Norway, for instance, depends on hydropower for about 99% of its total electrical energy needs. 12 Hydropower generation is relatively cheap, sustainable, and significantly devoid of GHG emissions compared to fossil fuel power plants. 13 Hydropower is a beneficial boost to the electricity sector’s stability, reliability, and cleanliness. 14 Though it is the primary source of global RE generation (making up 70%), hydropower accounts for only 17% of the total electrical energy generated worldwide. 15 Hydropower is the leading RE provider in the world at the moment, accounting for about 192 GW out of the 1200 GW global installed renewable capacity. However, cumulative function is still expected to increase by an additional 125 GW by 2023 and will be critical to reducing carbon emissions of the power grid and increasing system performance. 11 The year 2020 witnessed electrical energy generated from hydropower attain a massive 4370 TWh, the most significant contribution ever made by a single RE source. The globally utilized hydropower capacity reached 1330 GW in 2020, with China adding the most substantial potential as shown on Figure 1, while Figure 2 shows how hydropower generation continues to grow globally through the decades, delivering a range of benefits to communities and the environment.16,17
Hydropower capacity by region 2020. data source 18 .
Hydropower growth throughout the decades. data source 18 .
Brazil ranks second in global hydroelectricity production by installed capacity, reaching 109 GW in 2020, overtaking the United States by about 7 GW. However, China remains the world’s top producer of hydroelectric energy with an installed capacity of over 370.2 GW. 17 Hydropower has become an inevitable global RE alternative for important reasons such as relative cheapness, pollution mitigation potential, and promoting environmental sustainability. Secondly, hydropower systems can offer multiple reservoir co-benefits such as irrigation, water supply, flood control, and recreation, amongst others. Lastly, it can integrate other renewables into the grid by responding rapidly when unstable sources go off-line and by pumping energy storage when these sources produce surplus energy. 19
In tandem with the strategy of China’s clean energy policy and green bond market, China’s hydropower industry has, in recent times, significantly expanded its impact on overseas markets. A collaboration between the Chinese Export-Import Bank, other Chinese banking sectors, government-owned firms, and private corporations have earned China a leading role in executing over 90 large dam projects overseas. This is a synergistically beneficial situation for the Chinese hydropower industry and the host nations involved, as envisaged by the Chinese government. On the other hand, Nigeria seems to be struggling with implementing its renewable policy issues towards actualizing its hydropower potential, despite its massive water resources. In recent times, a transition in Nigeria’s democratic governance witnessed the resurgence of the National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy NREEEP 2015. This set the government’s priority to “take full advantage of the country’s hydropower potential, stimulate the interest of the private sector and participation of indigenous people in hydropower development.” Toward this objective, a principle agreement for the overall planning of Nigerian hydropower infrastructure was reached in 2016 with PowerChina International Group.
This paper, therefore, begins by examining sustainable policies towards hydropower development, the evolution of hydropower in these two leading economies before inception. It is followed by a scrutiny of past and present challenges of hydropower development in these two nations. We then look at the hydropower partnership between these two countries based on the agreement signed in 2016. Finally, we examined how China overcame its challenges and got its hydropower breakthroughs on the right track, where Nigeria got things wrong, and the prospective progress for Nigeria to achieving its hydropower target, with China now in charge of proceedings.
Rapid advances and modifications in hydropower plant design occurred at the turn of the 20th century when hydropower development was driven by worldwide growth. Hydropower's worth and role in economic development were reassessed toward the turn of the era, as worldwide awareness of environmental and social impacts grew. The World Commission on Dams (WCD) issued a historical report in 2000 that questioned previous methods and prompted a shift in hydropower design and development toward an emphasis on sustainability and affected populations.20,21 In 1995, the International Hydropower Association (IHA) began work on the IHA Sustainability Guidelines, which resulted in creating the Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol in (HSAP) 2004. 22 These policies resulted in a radical shift in how hydropower projects are planned, developed, and operated and rising recognition of the technology's role in combating climate change, alleviating poverty, and enhancing wealth. Considering that dams and reservoirs provide a variety of tasks, notably flood management and control, agriculture, recreation, navigation, and drinking water supply, hydropower's role and prospects are multifaceted. In the worldwide transmission of data and business, reliable electricity transmission is becoming increasingly crucial. The expense of power failures unintentional or deliberate makes power system reliability and stability even more vital to public safety. As a response to changes and dynamics in the energy sector, a fresh perspective at hydropower's future role is required. 23
Rapid expansion in diversifying generation, governmental emphasis on measures to cut carbon emissions, the need for grid infrastructure transformation, and a need to enhance the electrical grid's adaptability to unexpected disruptions are strong market determinants for the grid and additional power storage. In addition, long-term funding for renewable energy deployment at the regional and local levels, including renewable portfolio regulations and geographic GHG efforts, is provided through public policy. 24 As a result, inherent commercial and regulatory hurdles must be surmounted to maximize hydropower's potential for enhancing grid resilience and supporting the delivery of intermittent generating resources. According to the expedited scenario, global hydropower potential acquisitions might be 40% greater by 2030 if governments overcome the barriers to rapid deployment. Hence, globally, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will necessitate a massive expansion in hydroelectric ambitions. 16
Hydropower origin and evolution
China’s hydropower evolution
China is by far the number one hydropower producer globally, generating 1,180 TWh of energy in 2016. In addition to the Three Gorges Dam, China boasts another massive hydropower plant HPP, making two of the world’s top ten hydropower plants.25,26 This is because China has plentiful water resources capable of generating enormous hydropower. Such rich hydro resources, coupled with the need to curtail global GHG emissions, have stimulated the rapid expansion of HPPs in China, 27 as shown in Figure 3.
The distribution of major hydropower bases in China.
As China’s largest sustainable energy resource, hydropower plays a highly crucial role in promoting sustainable economic growth, changing the energy structure, and curbing non-fossil energy utilization to 15%. 28 With substantial hydropower growth and the potential delivery of targets by 2020, installed hydropower capacity was targeted to hit 300 million kW (including 225 million kW of large and medium-sized hydropower as well as 75 million kW of small hydropower). 29 Figure 4 shows how China’s hydropower development contributed significantly to a global net production increase, with the estimated 320 GW goal already reached by 2018. 30
China’s installed hydropower capacity in the last decade: data source 31 .
Although the potential hydropower capacity is 600 GW, the power currently technically exploitable and economically viable lies at approximately 500 GW. 32 There is thus the tremendous opportunity for subsequent development of HP. 33 The total capacity deployable nationwide is projected to hit 450 GW in 2030 and 550 GW in 2050, respectively, with provinces such as Sichuan or Yunnan alone capable of generating up to 100 GW. 28
China is the world's largest developer of RE, producing more than twice as much as the United States. China's total installed RE capacity reached 790 GW by the end of 2019, powered mainly by hydroelectricity, solar, and wind energy. 34 As of 2020, China's potential hydropower capacity was estimated to be 356 GW, solar power capacity reached 252 GW, and wind power capacity had surpassed 282 GW. 35 China's RE sector quickly outpaces its fossil fuel and nuclear power production. The country has committed to achieving decarbonization before 2060 and maximum emissions by 2030. Figure 5 depicts how China plans to curtail CO2 emissions by more than 65% from 2005 rates by boosting overall installed wind and solar energy to exceed 1200 GW by 2030. 36 Despite having the largest installed Hydropower generation globally, including solar and wind power, RE accounted for just around 40% of its total installed electrical energy and 26% of total energy generation by 2020. Though solar and wind combined have more potential than hydropower in 2020, the proportion of RE sources in the electricity sector has gradually surged. 37
Re potential in China by source 2010-2030. Data source 38 .
After independence, it took eight years to initiate hydropower into the Nigerian energy sector. Finally, in 1968, the first 590 MW hydroelectric dam construction in Nigeria commenced. The Kainji Dam, designed by Impregilo, was built in Niger state on the Niger River. Construction began in 1964 in collaboration with Italian civil engineering contractors and was completed in 1968. The total cost estimated at United States dollar USD 209 million then is today equivalent to about USD 1.3 billion. 39 Nigeria has appreciable rivers and natural waterfalls, making hydropower its key electrical energy source. The two largest rivers, including the Chad Lake Basin with immense hydropower potential, are the Rivers Niger and Benue, with a combined annual renewable water resources potential of 1800m 3 available per capita. 40
Before 1968, hydropower was non-existent in Nigeria. However, its contribution to total energy produced exceeded expectations in 1972, when hydropower accounted for about 82% of overall energy generated. The percentage of hydropower has immensely inclined since then and was anticipated to continue to grow in the future. Since its inception, hydro energy consumption has steadily increased at 600 MW for nearly ten years (1970–1980). From 1980–1986, it grew from about 800 MW to 1900 MW and was forecasted to reach about 2300 MW by the year 1990. 41 Nigeria’s exploitable potential for large-scale hydropower is over 10,000 MW, as shown in Table 1, with a cumulative annual output of 36,000 GWh. 42 Nonetheless, as of 2012, only about 15% of that capacity had been generated, as shown in Table 2, indicating that Nigeria’s hydropower potential was not adequately tapped.43–46
Estimated current exploitable hydropower sites in Nigeria installed potential.
47
Estimated current exploitable hydropower sites in Nigeria installed potential. 47
Operational large-scale hydropower stations in Nigeria. 48
The current generation of Small Hydropower Plant SHP in Nigeria is estimated at 3500 MW, representing about 23% of the national hydroelectric potential. The latest national surveys have documented more than 278 untapped sites with a collective capacity of around 734.2 MW.43,47,49,50 With more sites still under survey, the current cumulative SHP potential stands at 3500 MW, as shown in Tables 3 and 4.
Small hydropower potential in surveyed states of Nigeria. 43
Existing small hydropower schemes in Nigeria. 43
Nigeria’s hydropower strategy has been typically driven to build large-scale hydropower plants HP. Figure 6 depicts the capacity of the power plants that set in motion a 16-year plan to enhance the installed capacity of hydropower plants by around 13,500 MW compared to the 1980s. 51 Large HP produce approximately 40% of Nigeria’s total electricity production at 1,938,000 kW, while small HP generates about 30,000 kW.51,52
Existing and exploitable hydropower sites in Nigeria.
To join the world’s top 20 rapidly flourishing economies by 2020, Nigeria has targeted to expand its economy by 11% to 13%. The government has hydropower production targets of 6156 MW by 2020 and double-fold by 2030 to achieve this aggressive growth. It aims to make 30% of RE by 2030 and have 70% of its energy usage produced on-grid, unlike the existing 74% auto-generated. Nigeria’s Energy Commission sought to achieve a grid capacity of 20,000 MW by 2022. 40 A privatization plan has been ongoing since 2005 to improve demand and supply for electricity, resulting in Nigeria’s Transmission System Provider being handed over to a Canadian International Hydro firm under a ‘three to five’ year executive contract. The African Development Bank has spent USD 100 million in building, servicing, and renovating hydropower plants. The outcome was an improvement on the grid from 15% in 2015 to 26% in 2017. The 760 MW Kainji and 578 MW Jebba projects were upgraded within this program. 40
Nigeria has a massive RE resource that is still untapped, with potential RE resources projected to be one and a half times greater than the country's existing fossil fuel production. However, it produces quite a limited amount of energy from renewable sources such as hydropower, solar, wind, and biomass. As a result, Nigeria's RE allocation of overall energy needs will reach 86.4% by 2025. 53 Over the decades, hydropower has been a pillar of Nigeria's grid-powered generation. Table 5 shows how RE currently contributes approximately 30% of installed capacity production and generates around 1968 MW of energy compared to a large-scale potential of over 11,250 MW. Solar has a potential of 427,000 MW for concentrated solar power and photovoltaic generation. In Nigeria, wind energy potential is moderate, with mean annual speeds of around 2.0 m/s along the coasts and 4.0 m/s at elevations of 30 m in the country's far north. 54 Nigeria's biomass resources are primary crops, pasture grasses, and livestock manure. Estimates reveal that Nigeria produces approximately 227,500 tons of animal waste every day, resulting in about 6.8 million m3 biogas. Although the country's technology is still in development, research projects encompassing many types of biogas production in Nigeria, such as technological feasibility or legislative proposals, are currently underway. 55
Summary of RE potentials in Nigeria.
55
Summary of RE potentials in Nigeria. 55
Evolution of China’s hydropower challenges
Chinese hydropower development has entered a new evolutionary era. Through advancements in the engineering design and technology of HP, the country has consistently constructed several technologically sophisticated and essential HP stations. 30 Nevertheless, there exist multiple problems concerning healthy development and hydropower utilization in China. The timeline of the barriers to hydropower production in China are as follows:
Developmental stage challenges
Financial constraints
The development of HP requires substantial capital investments in resources, which are typically carried out at the government level. Such major capital investments are usually difficult, if not impossible, for most economically challenged countries with typically ridiculous return rates (generally more than 20%). Financing was already a critical determining factor of hydropower development, particularly in evolving countries with the highest potential. Many developing nations still rely on monetary authorities like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to fund these large-scale projects with declining interest rates in this present dispensation. The challenge of supporting China’s HPPs persisted in the early stages of the energy market reform. Loans from such institutions are commonly attached with specific stipulations, such as international aggressive bidding standards, stringent and lengthy environmental assessments, and even issues such as human rights. Most consumer nations consider such interferences to be less than lifelike, imposed on them by wealthy countries. 56
Also, environmental pressure was another factor that fended off foreign funding institutions from HPPs and had severe consequences on the growth of China’s hydropower and those of other developing countries. 56 For instance, in 2004, amid some external influences, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao critiqued the State Reform and Development Commission report on the Nu River HPP development. “Adverse environmental and social considerations over a large-scale hydro project require rigorous study to draw a scientific conclusion”. 57
Resettlement issues
China’s reforms of the hydropower sector have been characterized by forced relocation. Owing to its massive peasant inhabitants and only 10% of its farmland arable, virtually all the land in its river valleys is wholly utilized. As a result of the impoundment, any sea-level increase would lead to resettlement. As all the cultivable land is currently in use, relocation areas are typically less desirable. Instead, the government utilized the existent productivity expansion in urban areas to resettle the displaced, some to the developed regions and the rest to irrigated areas. World Bank statistics show that China operates one of the best existing hydro development resettlement programs in the world. 56 In terms of installed capacity, the Three Gorges Dam is the largest energy station globally. The construction, which started in 1994, managed the world’s most prominent human resettlement of some 1.3 million people and protected the environment. Plans to nearly triple hydropower capacity to 300 GW by 2020 could displace an additional 300,000 people to make room for dam expansion. 58
Irrational price system on electricity
They differ widely within a country or locality when they are regarded either as power tariffs or electricity rates. Electricity prices were a function of determinants such as government subsidies or taxation, local weather conditions, transmission and distribution infrastructure, and multidimensional verordening of the industry. Depending on the type of connection, whether residential, commercial, or industrial, the rates of consumers vary mainly by the market base. The US Energy Information Administration’s survey reports that the “cost of electricity fundamentally denotes the costs of constructing, financing, running, and maintaining power plants and electricity grids.” This way, tariffication is the process by which an energy producer, a value provider, or a mega customer can envisage bulk electricity prices with fair precision, 59 besides hydroelectric.
Despite the government’s drive for a market economy, some initiatives, including electricity, were still under price control before the upgrade. The energy rate used to be set by the requirement to repay the government for funding the company, plus taxes and interest Consequently, opposed to the contentions of many environmental advocates, hydropower used to be the cheapest power in China, as manifested in areas with huge generating potentials. The uncompetitive price of hydropower has adversely affected the hydropower industry: the construction of peak power plants is a deterrent and a significant obstacle to future private sector investment in hydropower. The acknowledgment of the problem in a recent article by the State Electric Corporation’s Economic Research Center and the conceptualization of “equal Grid, equal efficiency, equal Price” changed the situation sooner than later. Though not new, the concept is engraved in China’s electricity law. Effective implementation of this law would promote potential hydropower production in China and significantly boost the power status. 60
Lack of capacity to peak
With approximately 80% of the operation being fossil fuel-fired thermal generation and much hydropower diverted to producing baseload electricity, there is a severe weakness concerning peak loading and operational balance. Quite many thermal plants could be used for peak and reserve purposes. However, this is unreliable and would culminate in the country's environmental issues. Viable solutions to China’s rising demand for energy were gas turbines and hydro-pumped storage to optimize hydropower generation efficiency. 56
China’s 21st-century hydropower challenges
Resettlement issues
Involuntary resettlement is one of the main complications hampering the development of HP dams in China. 61 Considering China’s large population, limited land, and delicate ecosystems, these factors ultimately make hydroelectric development more daunting.62,63 Other factors complicate resettlement procedures include the intricacies of resettlement plan approval, the uncontrollable progress of resettlement, and difficulties in adapting to a new life. 64 In addition, economic growth and living standards are correlated with the issue of migration and resettlement. Many years of modernization have led to over 22 million relocations in 31 provinces and municipalities enforced by the central government alone. A large percentage of the population resettled back straight away. The remaining moved to a different region, with Hunan province containing the highest resettlement immigrant population at over 2.6 million. 62 The compensation funds needed to resettle inhabitants before constructing dams and reservoirs have, in recent times, limited planned hydropower development.
Environmental impacts/protection requirement
Though hydropower is clean energy devoid of GHG emissions, the climatic effects of river impoundment distort the natural ecology of the reservoir, resulting in coastal erosion and earthquakes. Critics also say that the rivers can no longer reoxygenate, leading to high methane and CO2 pollution in lakes due to the increased water depth and higher flow rates after the dams are drained. The natural and social environment are two environmental concerns relevant to the growth of the HPP in China. Furthermore, river sluice inevitably leads to the decline of cultural relics, flood control, fishing, irrigation, tourism, and other human and social factors. 29 From a colossal point of view, the construction of hydropower resources is fundamental in replacing fossil fuels, reducing environmental pollution, improving the energy system, reducing transport demand, and ensuring the sustainability of China’s economy.
Nevertheless, the size of the HPP is extensive; the regional ecosystem will, therefore, eventually be affected. Significant potential environmental impacts of hydropower plant construction include land use/land-cover transformation and river flow alteration. 64 The rigors associated with construction sites, reservoirs, and surrounding areas, make it much more challenging to complete the environmental impact assessment process of large and medium-sized HPPs, along with the proposal of environmental protection measures. In addition, due to the presence of natural reserves, endangered animals, and plants, the ecological protection authorization processes of some HPPs can be delayed. It is, therefore, challenging to authorize the HPP, which hinders the preparatory work process. 64
Financial constraints
The early 20th century saw rapid advances and improvements in the design of hydropower plants, which are not cheap. In place of power generation facilities, the unit costs of hydropower are about 40% higher than those of thermal power. Furthermore, additional investments are made available for uncontrollable factors. Relocation costs, which account for the most considerable portion of the inevitable costs, commonly represent 30-40% of total expenditure in some HPPs and continue to increase. 65 In the late 1990s, loans from international financial institutions, especially the World Bank, ceased, explicitly affecting the hydropower sectors of most developing countries. The original investment is enormous, and the money required primarily comes from lenders; hence the hydropower company’s asset-liability ratio, especially new hydropower, is nearly above 70%. 66 With the incremental transition of hydropower to the southwest, the total development cost increases because of the stricter exploitation challenges. For example, the Three Gorges Dam is responsible for the most historic human relocation globally, resulting in compensation costs of 68.557 billion Chinese Yuan CNY for some 1.3 million displaced communities. 67 The new stage of dam development will dislodge less than 300,000 people to almost triple its hydropower output to 300 GW, resulting in more resettlement costs. 58 Complexity in estimating the follow-up relocation expenditure for building hydropower dam projects manifested in the resettlement of only 10,000 out of 61,000 people for the Three Gorges Group’s Xiluodu hydroelectric station project, with only 7.8 billion CNY approved for relocation. 29
Unbalanced development
China’s per capita income has risen exponentially in the last three decades. However, the national economic growth deficit in China and the gap in per capita income have increased. Income disparities among citizens are driven primarily by the divide between urbanized and verdant zones and the imbalances between cities with varying capabilities. Furthermore, these inequalities have been continuously rising. Data show that the income disparity between regions is more prominent than within areas. 68 This imbalanced development of the regional economy has led to an imbalance in China's hydropower's regional expansion. Hydropower production in the east is comparatively quick but relatively slow in the remote west Statistics show that 92.3% of the country’s new capacity built in 2007 emerged in 11 developing provinces, where SHP development is primarily focused. Likewise, the areas facilitated by SHP are slowly losing their long-term monopoly of the energy industry, the industrial presence of which is increasing in certain regions. 29
Fair mechanism and external profit
Because the government controls the hydropower sector, an atmosphere of healthy rivalry is lacking, owing to long-term energy dominance vulnerability. This sector faces several challenges to its growth, including feed-in constraints, low prices, and a higher loan limit. The current 6% Value Added Tax (VAT) is not implemented in certain areas, public capital investments are minimal, and the government’s assistance is insufficient. 29 Since current hydroelectric tariffs are pretty low compared to fossil fuel-generated electricity, energy efficiency and hydropower emissions mitigation are likely to yield little or no gain. The company’s obligations to pay other taxes on land use/management and other natural resource services further complicate matters. 69
Grid price discrepancy
The energy trade market involves three major pricing strategies: mutual transactions, biased auctions, and two-fold. Consumers cannot engage in the bidding process in biased auctions, allowing generation companies to dominate. 70 Generation corporations can manipulate the sale price for their benefit. 71 The electricity price of major hydroelectric projects on the grid is determined via cost-plus-benefit. Nonetheless, the construction costs of some HP stations are outrageously high, making power distributed to other areas price-competitive. For the time running, the price of electricity produced by HPPs of medium and small scale seemed relatively uneconomic. For example, the on-grid average price of 50 MW or fewer hydropower stations in Yunnan Province is 0.1866 CNY/kW h and 0.212 CNY/kW in Qinghai Province, 72 While the essential cost of electricity from Tibetan and Sichuan-Yunnan typical hydropower plants ranges from 0.5303 to 0.5803 CNY/kWh. 73 There are varying hydropower prices in different regions with significant gaps, and the formula “Same price for the same grid” was not holistically implemented. Also, the price of HP does not constitute construction costs and insurance premiums. Besides energy generation, hydropower dams also have other service functions like; irrigation, recreation, flood prevention, and water supply. While hydropower firms have to invest in other projects, the investment is not considered in the electricity price. The 2014 NDRC update was in its early planning phase, and the scope of execution was still under dialogue. 64
Hefty taxes on the hydroelectric corporations
Besides biogas and wind, RE production is not excluded from different taxation subsidies at the central government level. In September 2001, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and the State Tax Administration released VAT adjustments for some Resource Comprehensive Use Products. The VAT rate for HP and other renewables is 17%, with almost no deductible production tax, compared to the VAT of 8.5% for wind power. 74 The thermal energy sector’s VAT rate is roughly 8% after eliminating the coal input charge, while it is 10.2% for oil and natural gas and 8.1% for coal mining and processing. 64 As a result, hydropower is excessively taxed relative to other sustainable energy sources in the energy industry. Such taxes on the construction of hydropower continue to increase, besides other costs of land compensation, relocation subsidies, connection recompense, and additional resettlement fees. In some regions, additional expenses and regular and unfair taxes are paid. 64 While most RE companies may also benefit from an income tax holiday, current tax policy has generally failed to offer sufficient funding to develop clean energy technologies. 74
Evolution of Nigeria’s hydropower challenges
Developmental stage challenges
Because until the present, Nigeria is not a technically developed nation and struggles to develop advanced hydroelectric power infrastructure. Hydropower production has been heavily dependent on developed nations’ foreign loans, typically increasing interest rates. Rising tax rates delay the development of HP compared to thermoelectric generators (for which loans at lower interest rates are available). Such a situation is attributable to the likelihood of the industrialized nations benefitting from the selling of thermoelectric generators and associated technologies than from the development of HP stations. Hydropower has significant environmental and economical multipurpose characteristics that make HPPs common among developing nations. The only alternative was to resort to oil and gas-fired thermoelectric power generators. Oil and gas shortages make expensive imports from other regions unavoidable. Nigeria was then a petroleum exporting nation (with about 2,5 million barrels are produced a day) and could bear the running costs of gas-fired or oil-fired generators. Nonetheless, these resources were bound to deplete in the long term. 75
Nigeria’s 21st-century hydropower development challenges
Paralysis in policy direction
While there is a policy stipulating the provision of RE for sustainable energy production in Nigeria, and the guidelines are well-articulated, stakeholders lack the proper guidance on how to execute them as sustainable policies—that is, directions for implementation are scarce. 47 The World Future Council report in 2014 implied that only political will prevents the world from adopting 100% RE, while other barriers cannot be subject to investigation. 76 Furthermore, scientific research has proven that the main obstacles to 100% RE roadmaps are not technological or economic but are social and political. 77 This is a clear indication that the Nigerian government lacks the political will to set the control systems, needs, and stimuli required for a significant change from traditional to RE sources.
In contrast to large-scale hydroelectricity as an alternative source of RE, the present state of RE production and utilization in Nigeria is relatively low, virtually limited to prototype and feasibility projects. The impediments to the rapid expansion and propagation of technologies for the production and use of these enormous national resources include; the unavailability of a market and the absence of adequate policy, deficiency of regulatory and institutional structure to lure investors and spur the economy. The relatively fragile existing systems and the exorbitant running costs are also obstacles to business growth. 78
Difficulties in the funding of energy infrastructure
Over the past half-century, HPPs in Africa have been implemented with public financing funded by loans from multilateral and bilateral public sources. Under this initiative, the World Bank has contributed significantly to financing the Akosombo hydropower generation project in Ghana, the Kainji HPP in Nigeria, and the Owen Falls project in Uganda. However, unlike in the past, electricity budgets are nowadays limited at continental and global scales, as is foreign aid. This situation offers the private sector the leverage to take over the hydropower industry. Such support takes the form of commercial loans and the involvement of other private funders or investors in RE, which inputs difficult but not impossible to repay. However, after the end of the 20th century, the International Finance Corporation has begun making provisions for funding several individual hydroelectric projects in developing countries. 79 Likewise, the costly equipment or overhead costs of undertaking hydropower schemes, in conjunction with the unencouraging economic plight of Nigeria and Africa at large, currently attracts very little interest from private investors in the hydropower industry. 80
Lack of fundamental research and development policy
Innovation is now widely seen as a catalyst for economic growth in developing and developed countries, making it a significant factor in poverty alleviation. Policymakers need accurate metrics to measure and track these policies to ensure successful innovation. Research and Development (R&D) parameters are essential for monitoring the Network Information System (NIS) component of a country. 81 As mentioned earlier, Nigeria is currently not a manufacturer of modern hydropower equipment. Evidence suggests that Nigeria has either an abysmal strategy or no policy, hence its overreliance on the supply of energy generation technologies of all kinds from developed countries.
Lack of technical skills in machinery engineering
A lack of adequate skills hinders growth in technologically advanced industries, undermining government investment in strategic economic sectors. The lack of resources, coupled with inadequate infrastructure to support innovation, are deterrents to the technical aspect of RE implementation. RE technologies are still at a cost disadvantage in some countries compared with more widely used non-renewable technologies, such as coal production, 82 perhaps because all technologies for RE are imported. Therefore, the high price of electricity means many people are more inclined to use coal-generated power because it is readily accessible and, therefore, reliable and cheap compared to RE.
Additionally, the shortage of transmission and distribution network infrastructure facilities, coupled with the required utilities for electricity companies, is a major infrastructure problem in most evolving countries pertaining to the production of RE. The unavailability of such equipment in those countries makes importation from the advanced nations inevitable. 82 The expensiveness and competitiveness of hydropower are also pertinent to other RE technologies. This is because imported equipment is expensive in comparison to locally produced ones. Also, the unavailability of replaceable parts and insufficient repair/service capabilities of the equipment lead to a breakdown of the equipment, which prevents the energy supply. 83 Consequently, most consumers in Nigeria and neighboring African countries opt for fossil fuels because of their relative cheapness and availability.
Uneconomic tariff coupled with poor revenue collection
An electricity tariff applies to consumers’ money for supplying their domestic energy needs. Factors such as market value, accessibility of fuel, state subventions, industrial codes, operating costs, maintenance, and weather conditions are determinants of electricity generation cost The tariff system considers these various factors when determining total electricity costs, bearing in mind that most Nigerians live in rural areas (accounting for about 70% of the country’s population). Given that electricity in Nigeria is considered as essential a resource as roads and water, it is still challenging to get people to pay their tariffs consistently, mainly when considered in tandem with the dysfunctionality of the electrical energy supply. 80 Likewise, inadequate tariff collection, generation, and distribution capacity structure, combined with losses in distribution and transmission, has consistently contributed to declining revenue over the years. Technological advances led to the privatization of Nigeria’s power sector in 2005, the Electric Power Sector Reform Act, which disbanded Nigeria’s Power Holding Company into three components: power generation, transmission, and distribution companies. Research suggests that revenue growth in the sector was significant, from around USD 220 million in 2003 to about USD 300 million in 2007. 84
Comparative features of China’s versus Nigeria’s hydropower production challenges
While both countries had their first hydropower plant installed in the 20th century, China has, over the years, experienced a remarkable breakthrough in its hydropower industry. Currently, it leads the world’s HP industry. On the other hand, Nigeria has been slower in its hydropower development since its inception. With a hydropower potential of 694 GW, the 2020 projections saw China achieve its 600 GW target, representing 86% of its total potential. Nigeria, however, only reached 3.064 GW, representing 62% of its 10 GW hydropower potential. Presently, the hydropower production that China can attain is only 83% of its full potential, while Nigeria can only reach 34% of its total potential. The 2030 projections see China adding 65% to its overall available potential, generating 128% of its full potential. 85 While China has overcome specific hydropower challenges, such as financing, policy direction, and technological innovation, to become number one globally, Nigeria seems to be wavering in the face of these challenges. Currently, China is faced with inevitable but surmountable hydropower development challenges, such as negative environmental impacts, resettlement difficulties, and high taxing, as shown in Table 6. This implies that Nigeria is still far from actualizing its maximum hydropower generation potential and subsequently eradicating its fossil fuel dependence.
Comparison of China and Nigeria hydropower status quo.
Comparison of China and Nigeria hydropower status quo.
African countries’ hunger for large-scale HPPs has increased substantially and ushered in the opportunity for Chinese companies to become involved in international hydropower dam development, funded by Chinese governmental loans. This has given Chinese firms leverage in overseas dam construction ventures in Africa, with the China Gezhouba Group and Sinohydro Corporation being the two leading firms. 86 From the beginning of the 21st century to 2013, HPPs with a total capacity of 3.3 GW and worth USD 5 billion were completed by the Chinese in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Chinese foreign hydropower development has expanded rapidly since it first penetrated the SSA energy market, and projections indicate that 17 GW of Chinese-invested electricity generation capacity will be installed in the form of 96 projects between 2010 and 2020. By 2016, over 50% of Chinese construction projects had been completed, 25 were still in progress, and 17 had been approved for execution. 87 Table 7 shows how Chinese engineering ventures and financial institutions have maintained a keen interest in 53 large HPPs across the continent Since 2000. 88 Global Data currently monitors 242 African power projects for which contracts have been issued. The overall sum of these projects is USD 313.1 billion, including projects ranging from planning to stages of construction. Chinese construction firms are currently accountable for approximately 30% of capacity upgrades and are obligated to meet a total of 53.3GW by 2030. 86
List of Chinese financed, contracted, or involved hydropower dams in Africa.
89
List of Chinese financed, contracted, or involved hydropower dams in Africa. 89
Nigeria remains one of China’s most strategic partners in Africa and West Africa. The attraction of Nigeria towards Beijing depends on issues such as; its location in the strategic Gulf of Guinea, its prospective substantial domestic consumer market of over 130 million people, and its predominance in entities such as the African Union AU, New Partnership for Africa’s Development NEPAD, Economic Community of West African States ECOWAS, and Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group ECOMOG. 90 China has demonstrated concern for some dam projects, notably regarding oil trade-offs. In May 2006, Nigeria accepted a loan of about USD 2.5 billion from China. USD 1 billion is to fund the Mambila HPP dam alone, which would boost Nigeria’s electricity generation to nearly 4000 MW, two-fold of its present energy generation. Apart from the loan, the China Machinery and Equipment Import and Export Company oversees practically all of these initiatives. 91
The mambilla HPP
Initiated over 40 years ago, the USD 6 billion Mambilla HPP still under construction will connect with four dams across the Donga River in Taraba. Moto Columbus officially performed the first preliminary feasibility study for the Mambilla HPP in 1972. Since then, attempts to implement the project have been in vain. 92 However, in November 2017, the Nigeria Ministry of Power Works and Housing approved HPP construction to an alliance of three Chinese companies, together with Gezhouba Group. This conglomerate of some Chinese engineering firms is tasked to complete the 3050 MW Mambila HP in Taraba State. The gigantic project will have four dams between 50 and 150 meters in height and will be completed in six years, reporters in Abuja told Energy, Works, and Housing Minister Babatunde Fashola. 93
The zungeru HPP
The 700 MW hydroelectric plant being built along the top-mid stream of the Kaduna River in Nigeria, with Chinese support, is owned and promoted by the authority of Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Power and Steel. Zungeru is the largest HPP under construction in Nigeria, valued at about USD 1.3 billion. One of Africa’s most significant power projects is to access China’s Export-Import Bank preferential lending facility. Building works of the powerplant started in May 2013 and are projected to take 60 months to complete. Legal and financial problems concerning ecological settlement in the area affected, however, prolonged the project commissioning to 2021. A partnership of China National Electric Engineering Company and Sinohydro, a branch of Power Construction Corporation of China (PowerChina), was awarded the project's engineering, acquisition, and construction contract in October 2012. The financing agreement for the USD 1.3 billion Zungeru HPP was agreed and signed between the Exim Bank of China and the Government of Nigeria in September 2013. 94
The Zungeru project is expected to produce 264 billion kWh of energy per annum, capable of servicing almost 10% of Nigeria’s overall domesticated electricity demands. Besides HP generation, other reservoir functions like irrigation, water supply, fish breeding, and flood control depend on the dam. Initially slated for completion in the fourth quarter of 2017, the project is further rescheduled for completion in December 2021. However, the first unit is scheduled to commence power generation to the national grid in December 2020. 95
The gurara II HPP
The Gurara Hydropower Plant is located in Kaduna State and has an overall capacity of 30 MW. It was constructed primarily for water supply to the Lower Usuma Dam in the Federal Capital Territory. The dam, located approximately 75 km from Abuja's city center, is 54 m high and boasts a reservoir capacity of 880 million m3. 96 The need to explore the potential 360 MW of the Gurara II HPP mandated the Federal Executive Council of Nigeria to approve a loan of USD 1 billion from the Chinese Export-Import Bank in May 2019. 97 The project’s secondary objective is to improve the productivity of the Gurara River by storage, regulation, and monitoring the flow pattern of the river and its primary tributary. In addition to the 30 MW (first phase) of HP to be incorporated into the national grid, these delivery systems will generate 300 MW (second phase). 98
China-Nigeria small-scale hydropower consortium
SHP is now being recognized as the core of the RE supply in developing countries, especially in rural areas. 99 The inherent economic, technological, and ecological benefits of SHPs make it essential for the future energy balance globally, notably in emerging economies. Compared to large-scale HPP systems, SHP systems are more environmentally sustainable and socio-economically viable. They are critical in fulfilling basic energy needs in rural and remote areas. 100
SHP, according to the definition in the NREEEP, ranges from 1 to 30 MW. 101 The current output for SHP is around 45 MW, with an expected overall capacity of 3500 MW, suggesting that only 1.3% has been harnessed. 43 In November 2002, the Nigerian Energy Commission worked with United Nations Industrial Development Organization UNIDO and other respective government departments to initiate a national forum of stakeholders on RE technologies. It is solely focused on SHP for remote industrialization to develop solutions that ensure the availability of clean and dependable energy services for integrative and long-term industrial development. In addition, a free trade agreement between Electronic Communication Networks and UNIDO and International Center on Small Hydropower ICSHP was appended to further cooperate in the exploitation of established SHP potential. 101
The ICSHP is a non-governmental, non-profit organization explicitly under the aegis of UNIDO, China’s ministry of water resources, and MOFCOM. Since its inception, it has been an industrial hub for SHP engineering and training and has extended to over 50 developing countries. It has, in recent times, successfully assembled the first clean development mechanism SHP in China. In addition, China’s SHP expertise and experience have been widely disseminated worldwide through South-South Cooperation initiatives. Some of such SHP projects in Nigeria include; refurbishment for 3 × 3 MW small hydropower dam in Waya, 2 × 5 kW hydropower in Enugu, 1200 kW HPP in Amoke, and the 2 × 200 kW Tunga dam hydropower dam. 102
How did China get its hydropower growth on the right track?
Unprecedented economic progress significantly increased China’s energy requirements in the last two decades. China is now the world’s biggest hydropower market, the largest producer and consumer of hydropower. With hydropower and other renewable alternatives, China is progressively attempting to secure its future energy needs. A Fact sheet on Chinese energy strategy in 2012 stressed the need to “develop new and renewable energies vigorously.” China is devoted to making non-fossil fuel 20% of its overall energy generation by 2030. So far, it has achieved tremendous results in conformity with the 2016 Paris deal. As the world’s number one investor in clean and RE, estimates reveal that China will generate 1 GW in every 4 GW of the world’s total RE until the year 2040. 103 Below are some of the most important drivers for achieving China’s current hydropower status.
The Chinese economic reform programme
Before the actual reforms, state ownership and central planning dominated the Chinese economy. Despite changes pertinent to cultural transformation and evolution, China’s GDP rose by 2.9% annually between the early 50s and mid-70s. This positioned it close to the center of the Asian nations over the same period, 104 with nearby capitalist countries like Japan, South Korea, and Chinese rival Chiang Kai-shek outpacing the Peoples Republic of China PRC’s rate of economic growth. 105 In 1970, the economy entered a state of stagnation. 104 After Mao Zedong’s death, the leadership of the Communist Party switched to market-oriented policies to save the economy that had failed. 105 China’s flagship economic reform programme marked its 40th anniversary in 2018, during which it implemented market ideals and made the economy more open to international exchange. Sequel to these fundamental reforms, China’s hydropower sector expanded twenty-fold to an overall capacity of 352 GW, reflecting one-quarter of the globally generated amount. Additional 8.54 GW capacity, incorporating 1.5 GW of pumped storage, was incorporated in 2018. In recent years, however, the decrease in yearly output coupled with worsening economic conditions and reduced growth in electricity consumption resulted in excess capacity and a restriction of renewables. Before the end of 2018, 69,100 GW of hydropower was curbed along with 33,200 GW of other renewables.
The clean energy consumption action plan
To circumvent the above pitfall, the Chinese government released the ‘Clean Energy Consumption Action Plan 2018-2020’ to eliminate the curtailment by 2020. The plan includes elements linked to monitoring the roll-out of renewable and coal power, speeding up the power market reform, improving policy guidance, and new goals. The policy favors renewables to substitute captive coal-fired power plants that can generate about 10 TWh of electricity by 2018 and 50 TWh by 2020 and projects a 30% share of RE in key inter-provincial electricity lines by 2020. 106 Ever since a range of inter-regional electricity delivery networks has been established to export hydroelectric overproduction, this includes the world’s first 5000 MW Ultra-High-Voltage UHV multi-terminal Direct Current project, an 800 kW Ultrahigh-Voltage Direct Current UHVDC power transmission project in north-western Yunnan city of Guangdong province. The 1200 MW necessary powered storage, if the energy plant is to be versatile, was commissioned in 2018, in addition to the 600 MW Qionzhong station currently in operation. Also, three projects for the pumped storage (1200 MW Fu Kang, 1800 MW Jurong and 1200 MW Yongtai) were initiated, and construction commencing in 2018. 106
In addition to China’s Three Gorges 16000 MW Baihetan project, which is well underway, some other conventional hydro-energy projects have been commissioned. They include; the 1900 MW Huadeng, 348 MW Sha Ping II, 920 MW Dahuaqiao and 420 MW li di stations. The need for further infrastructure development pushed the Chinese government to launch a slew of programmes and improvements to speed up the country's clean energy transition. By 2018, China started overhauling its electrical power sector to switch from the expected distribution to the energy front market where RE can be prioritized over non REs, with hydropower leading in energy gains. By November 2018, a new RE portfolio policy setting out provincially extensive minimum RE usage further enhanced hydropower use and counter-cutting.
China’s Green bond market
In accord with the year 2018 global green stock offering, which stood at USD 31.2 billion (CNY 210.3 billion), China continues to promote green funding because of its enormous demands for RE alternatives, holds the second position in the world at present, and accounts for 18% of global issuance. 107 For the five-year plan beginning in 2016 till 2020, which is the 13th of the nation, the scheme will provide a green financial system to foster economic growth while tackling climate change. A portion of these green bond provisions was developed to promote RE infrastructure financing exceptionally large HPPs. 108 From 2017 to 2018, China Three Gorges raised USD 2.25 billion to fund its Jinsha River cascade projects along with the HPPs in Baihetan and Wudongde. China’s rise as a significant force in this industry, in a reasonably limited period, has captured the attention of global companies seeking to tap into a lucrative market. 107 While China is increasingly viewed as a new leader in advocating a low-carbon society and seems in a position to steer global climate mitigation, the above-mentioned drivers behind current developments in hydropower in China are verifying the claim that China’s non-participatory, government-fostered authoritarianism will adequately address the global climate change concern. Therefore, understanding the essence and complexities of China’s climate change mitigation campaign has significant consequences for promoting low-carbon technologies through all political systems.
What is hampering Nigeria’s hydropower development?
Nigeria holds two of Africa’s seven largest rivers: the Niger and Benue rivers and other significant rivers and inherent waterfalls. With sustainable water resources evaluated at 1800 m3/per person/year, it reflects the abundance of water resources potential. However, a lack of development and management classifies Nigeria as economically water-constrained. Presently, Nigeria can only generate 15% of its 10,000 MW large-scale HP potential 85 and 1.3% of its 3500 MW small-scale HP potential. 101 Though one of the first countries to adopt the Sustainable Energy for All initiative, 109 a cursory look at some of the proposed major large-scale hydroelectric projects within the country since the 20th century indicates the enormity of the country’s RE unreadiness. As shown in Table 8, a couple of large-scale HPPs initiated long ago and capable of alleviating the state of its primary electrical energy needs seem to have been either neglected or shelved till further consideration. Unfortunately, the Mambila hydroelectric project, one of Nigeria and Africa's most significant dam projects, has suffered the most incredible neglect. Although initially conceived in 1972, all efforts to actualize the plan have since been in vain and could only progress after 35 years, when the Gezhouba Group in China awarded a contract to develop the 2600 MW installed capacity project in 2007. The field survey for the project was completed in August 2010, and in December 2011, environmental approval was granted. In 2012 the project’s capacity was expanded to 3050 MW.
Ongoing major large-scale HPPs in Nigeria.
Ongoing major large-scale HPPs in Nigeria.
Nonetheless, organizational problems led to the initiative being scrapped before the Federal Government reconsidered it in 2016. The fourth quarter of 2017 marked the agreement between the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Power Works and Housing and a consortium comprising three Chinese companies, including the Gezhouba Group, to revive the project. 110 According to the Ministry of Finance, the USD 5.8 billion worth HPP that has been under construction for over 40 years is likely to link to three dams across the Donga River in Taraba. 111 Suppose such a large-scale capacity project capable of meeting around 50% of the nation’s entire RE needs is yet to be actualized after more than four decades. How much less the other HPPs initiated between 1982 and 2002 and yet to be operational.
Scrutiny of some most recent studies on RE development in Nigeria has identified quite a considerable number of issues hampering the actualization of Nigeria’s hydropower generation potential. They include; financial constraints,47,48,50,80,112 lack of technical knowhow for equipment manufacture,47,48,113 poor revenue collection,48,80 unidentified demand and lack of legal framework, 114 lack of local R&D, and lack of intensive feasibility studies, 113 weak policy incentive, numerous taxes, and unfavorable customs and excise duties on RE technology, 112 lack of RE implementation guidelines, 47 weak data aggregation, climate change denial, and saboteurs and political/social paralysis, 50 low power density and scale compared to non-renewables. 115 While robust initiatives were proposed to mitigate these pitfalls, some of these still persistent issues seem to hinge on the National Energy Policy, which seems to have failed in many aspects regarding hydropower development in Nigeria.
Nigeria’s energy policy was inconsistent before 2003, after which the Federal Government became compelled to direct Nigeria’s energy policy to guarantee that all energy resources are utilized sustainably. Through the private sector, the government sought to rejig the energy sector. This policy encompasses energy demand and supply issues, energy generation, R&D, human resources development, nuclear energy, energy database, energy efficiency, and international cooperation. 114 It collectively recognizes renewable energies and other energy sources like oil and gas, crude bitumen, coal, and nuclear power as sub-sectors of its energy setup. This is an essential point because it demonstrates that the policy understands that renewable energies are situated in the context of a broader energy sector image. Therefore, to be fully capable, a RE plan must be rooted in a national energy policy that is equally efficient. 120
The essential components of national policy position on the production and use of RE technologies are:
Developing, fostering, and harnessing the country’s RE resources and integrating all available resources into the national energy mix. Fostering disposal of non-RE-based energy supply, particularly in rural households. Preventing tree felling for wood fire energy. Foster the use of optional sources of energy rather than fuelwood Recommending effective ways of using energy resources from biomass. Facilitating biomass as an alternative source for energy, precisely in peasant zones. To be paced with advances in RE technologies.
Hindrances to RE policy implementation before the 2015 NREEEP
Scrutinizing the obstacles to Nigerian RE policy implementation, quite notable reasons have been highlighted by many authors. They include; implementation guidelines are lacking,43,47 Low policy commitment, lack of economic opportunities, numerous taxes, non-existent beneficial customs, and excise duties to encourage technologies for RE, 112 lack of political will. 50 However, decisive scrutiny of the 2015 NREEEP on RE development and utilization, coupled with the barriers identified above by previous studies, only points to one conjoint issue worthy of attention and is presently being curtailed by the incumbent Federal Government of Nigeria FGN following an oath to the constitution in 2015. Fossil fuel negotiators who are so-called large oil firms or utility profiteers, in the typical case of Nigeria, electric generator traders, have been manipulated to benefit and even sustain the deteriorating state of the electricity sector. 50 The onset of democracy in 1999, which led to the deregulation and privatization of the oil and gas industry, failed to substantiate sustainable national development, which is witnessed in other parts of the world.
Positive developments for Nigeria hydropower since 2015
Before 2015, it was pretty evident that the Nigerian government struggled to establish regulatory frameworks, standards, and incentives to allow its energy use to shift dramatically from local fossils to clean energy sources. Because it is quite inconceivable that a leading economy in Africa termed “The Giant of Africa” is not financially buoyant enough to actualize its hydropower potential, having channeled millions of dollars to HPPs since the 20th century, to little avail. However, the assumption of office by a new government in 2015 witnessed a massive turn-around in the energy sector, especially of the NREEEP on RE.
Nigeria RE and energy efficiency policy (NREEEP) 2015
In April 2015, the FGN endorsed the nation’s first-ever RE-specific policy, the NREEEP set forth by the Federal Ministry of Power. The document underlines Nigeria’s policies on energy efficiency and RE and functions as a basis for sustainable growth, affordability, and the spread of RE towards energy remedies in the economy both on and off-grid. Besides mandating fundamental laws and regulatory amendments and promoting energy efficiency policies, the legislation also outlines Nigeria’s prompt implementation of RE and energy efficiency policies under ECOWAS RE and energy efficiency policies. In addition, it takes cognizance of hydropower as the most significant source of electricity from the primary charge due to its generation effectiveness. 121 Despite the huge embarkment capital needed, it is still deemed one of the cheapest and cleanest energy sources.
Key policies to drive the development of hydropower are as follows:
The nation shall completely exploit the hydropower capacity for electricity generation useable in the nation. The nation will entirely focus on improving mini and micro-HPP systems. The hydropower resources must be exploited in an environmentally sustainable and socially acceptable way. The private sector and indigenous involvement in the development of HP should be fully endorsed. Planned and ongoing large-scale hydro projects such as Mambila, Zungeru, and Gurara II must be fast-tracked and adequately prioritized. Multi-sectoral frameworks shall be planned and developed to encourage the development of mini and micro hydropower schemes by the private sector.
Progress since the 2015 NREEEP and China-Nigeria agreement
Nigeria’s 2015 NREEEP sets the government’s preference “to thoroughly exploit the country’s hydropower potential, stimulate the private industry and native involvement in the development of hydropower.” The aftermath of this policy action was an essential and sudden turn in events, which included the extension of electricity to geographically isolated areas and the environmentally friendly and sustainable pursuit of hydropower development. According to the “sustainable energy for All (SEforALL)” initiative, 109 Nigeria was amongst the world’s first nations to epitomize these goals. To this effect, an agreement with the PowerChina International Group was signed in 2016 to overhaul Nigerian hydropower and irrigation infrastructure. 40
Some of the China-Nigeria significant hydropower consortium progress include:
The Mambilla HPP project, which was envisaged in 1982, abandoned by subsequent military governance and under the democratic derogation, is now being handled by three Chinese companies, including the Gezhouba Group. The pact was granted in November 2017, and the 3050 MW HPP is very much under execution. The Chinese Export-Import Bank is financing 85% of the $4.8 billion projects, and upon completion, it will be Nigeria's largest power plant of 3,050MW potential. Furthermore, the China Gezhouba Group Vice President declared that his company was ready to mobilize financial and technical resources once land procurement and arbitration issues were settled.
122
The Zungeru HPP, which is appraised to yield 2.64 billion kWh of electricity in a year and capable of meeting 10% of Nigeria’s total internal energy as needed, is currently being delivered by the consortium of China National Electric Engineering Company and Sinohydro. The precontracted HPP project, which past administrations abandoned, is again envisaged for finalization in 2021. In addition to offering preferential customer's finance covering 75% of the project cost as part of the deal, The Chinese contractors will carry out topographical surveys, the design and construction of the main hydraulic structure, as well as the construction of roadways and other supplementary infrastructure for the project. The project's design and technical services were provided by Kunming Survey and Design Institute, China Hydropower Engineering Consulting Group (CHECG).
123
The Gurara II HPP, which will generate 360 MW of electricity, in addition to the 30 MW (first phase) of hydroelectric power, is to be fed into the national grid. To execute this project, Nigeria’s federal executive council had to approve a USD 1 billion loan from the Chinese Export-Import Bank in May 2019. Besides the loan from the Chinese Export-Import Bank, State-owned Chinese companies will offer a wide range of services, including project consulting, funding, design, engineering, construction, energy operation, and maintenance.
89
A collaboration has also been formed between the Nigeria Ministry of Power and the Ministry of Water Resources to complete several abandoned HPs, comprising the 30 MW Gurara I, 10 MW Tiga, 10 MW Oyan, 8 MW Challawa, and 6 MW Ikere. Close to completion and commissioning is the 40 MW Kashimbilla HPP. Other small-scale hydropower consortiums involving Chinese companies include refurbishing a 3 × 3 MW small hydropower dam in Waya, 2 × 5 kW hydropower in Enugu, 1200 kW HPP in Amoke, and the 2 × 200 kW Tunga dam hydropower dam in Taraba state.
Challenges to China–Nigeria hydropower cooperation
Any hydropower project faces the typical constraints of technological, environmental, and social issues and financing obstacles. To date, policy shifts, financial viability, and scandals continue to eclipse the Nigerian energy sector, particularly in the China–Nigeria consortium. While China has demonstrated its continued willingness through financial loans and technological readiness, Nigeria’s commitment has been chiefly displayed on paper, with little action. Two competing issues must be addressed to comprehend Nigeria's political and governmental prerequisites for hydropower dam development. First, the complex interaction between many parties with contradictory and conflicting interests and motivations underpins the development of undertakings such as dam construction. Second, the interplay between official and informal institutions shapes the overall development. 124 The major players in the large-scale hydropower projects in which the Chinese are involved include the federal and state governments, China’s Export-Import Bank, Sinohydro, the Gezhouba Group, and other similar entities. Furthermore, the challenges facing the China–Nigeria hydropower dam partnership are related to the ineffective and disorganized management on the part of the Nigerian government. As a result, massive dams have been built with the financial and technical support of other governments and their agencies over the years. 124 Presently, the majority of the ongoing projects are yet to be completed due to obstacles such as the following: i) In addition to the outstanding 15% counterpart finance, the federal government will owe China EXIM a large debt due to huge financing charges, which must be paid in a market where profits are being lost. 125 In 2019, Nigeria's energy market lost a total of USD 2.6 billion in revenue. Unbilled or unremitted money accounted for almost a third of the losses, while generation restrictions, which the dam is supposed to address, accounted for the rest. 126 ii) Land compensation settlements may give rise to legal action, which could cause construction to be delayed. iii) Attempts to use the current grid infrastructure to transmit the generated electricity are impeded by the inadequate transmission and distribution capacity related to network unreliability. 125 iv) COVID-19 and Nigeria's economic recession are expected to delay project construction further.
Additionally, there are obstacles to the seamless transfer of hydropower technology from China to Nigeria. Given Nigeria's progress due to increased knowledge gained by technology transfer, foreign private-sector investment between Nigeria and China has remained stagnant for the past decade. The first issue is the Chinese government's reluctance to fully adopt a sustainable and acceptable paradigm, with the transfer systematically taking place. The unwillingness to engage local labor is linked to the transfer of technological challenges, especially when specialists are needed. 127 Another issue is the neglect to use local resources and instead rely on Chinese-made products. Chinese enterprises are not engaging in technology transfer in the construction industry as a specific focus. Given that technology transfers represent a realistic framework for exchanging ideas, another challenge is that Chinese technologies are cheaper than products or services provided by domestic enterprises, resulting in lesser competition. Local businesses have been subjected to unfair competition as inexpensive Chinese products than indigenous products have penetrated the Nigerian market. 127
Lastly, hydropower planning and construction are seldom done in a sustainable manner that considers public development priorities, local interests, and environmental implications. This is because several dams built by Chinese enterprises are presumed to not adhere to international environmental and social standards, such that ecological processes may be harmed in the long run, with different consequences for residents. Local communities in Nigeria's Zamfara, Kaduna, and Taraba states, where these mega-dam projects are being developed, are skeptical of the dam construction improving their lives by providing access to electricity and other basic amenities. As a result, the reality following a dam construction is frequently different from planned. 128
In a broader context, because different countries have varied local characteristics, each country's obstacles in developing hydropower are distinct. Disparities in renewable energy policies in other countries are barriers to hydropower collaboration. For instance, some European countries are not a part of the EU's energy policy, ruling them out of any potential partnership. 129 Although countries like Albania, Estonia, Poland, and Slovenia all have similar goals and priorities for hydropower development, they face numerous challenges linked to implementing the proposed energy law, energy diversification, financial crises, and the absence of specific institutional and judicial regulations. 129 The recent downturn in China's economy has had far-reaching consequences for the world economy and emerging economies in Africa and Asia. 130 Due to decreased Chinese trade and investment, lending countries also face debt repayment issues. This does not suggest that Chinese corporations will scale down their development of hydropower dams in other countries. Contrarily, the recent foundation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, driven by the Chinese and the BRICs bank, as well as the "one belt, one road" plan, additional efforts, and a more significant push for Chinese firms to go worldwide will be witnessed. As a result, government corporations like Sinohydro and Three Gorges will be vying for more international construction projects, and more China-facilitated dams will be erected in the developing world. 130
The environmental mitigation plan is among the most challenging concerns facing Chinese-financed hydropower projects. The project's environmental impact assessment EIA requirements and their execution are distinctive. The Bui Dam’s EIA recommendations which were alleged to be deliberately neglected was subsequently discovered that Sinohydro was not involved in any of the planning processes (dam design, EIA, and resettlement) before the project commencement. 130 As a result, stricter assessment measures for Merowe Dam's social and environmental implications were imposed. The EIA procedure for the Kamchay Dam, on the other hand, was defective. It got off to a late start, with the final EIA permission coming seven months after the dam's inauguration. 131 Essentially, availing private actors with previously unavailable possibilities will open ears to their voices, as well as effective engagement and discussions, on the imminent environmental problems that hydropower poses to the livelihoods of their host communities. The advent of China as a global leader in dam construction has drawn various concerns for both conventional dam sponsors and those who believe the era of mega-dams is coming to an end.
On the other hand, China has developed diverse and long-term connections with nations where new dams might help address critical economic and development priorities. So far, China's foreign hydropower development has followed in the country's domestic power sector. It is feasible that as China's reforms gain traction, exported dams may embrace stronger environmental and social norms. Alternatively, this approach could likely flop, as evidenced by government entities consistently indicating their willingness to implement reforms so that China's foreign initiatives do not jeopardize the "going out" plan and other long-term goals. 132
Study limitations and outlook
This study examined the hydropower development partnership between China and Nigeria in the context of evolutional challenges, policy issues, and current challenges that reference other world regions, particularly towards the UN climate change mitigation goals. However, the UNs climate change sustainability development goals extend beyond this review's joint partnership issues. More substantial political commitment, longer-term energy planning, and considerable regulatory and structural initiatives are needed to expedite development across all sectors and indicators to accelerate the adoption of sustainable energy solutions (this will require more extensive qualitative and quantitative assessments). Sourcing finance for hydropower investment is critical in leveraging private capital, especially in poorer countries and a post-COVID era. As evidenced by the preceding conclusions on hydropower development partnership and problems, having concrete data on environmental and socio-economic aspects, including the climate change impacts of global water resources projects, is a crucial component of a proper assessment which is a limitation of this study. The datasets discussed in this article do not preclude a rise in the number of parameters; nevertheless, accurate data must be accessible to a wide range of subscribers concerned with sustainable development and the efficient use of hydroelectricity. All of the variables examined here are dynamic, making it difficult to understand them from the present perspective. The geopolitical and legislative framework driving hydropower development in a given country and increasing anthropogenic activities to a certain degree alter and impact the environment continuously (which is pertinent to reservoir impoundment and resettlement). As a result, predicting the path of these developments is challenging, uncertain, and prone to inaccuracy. Future research should explore these issues by conducting a comprehensive analysis for the entire continent, regions, or a substantial portion of it, utilizing hydrological and climate modeling tools. This study's scope to encompass more extensive regions, continents of Asia, Africa, and other continents would yield a better understanding and more robust conclusions.
The need for hydropower partnership between developed and developing nations
With the growing scourge of climate change from fossil fuel burning, the need for international synergism toward the development of RE, especially hydropower, is presently more imperative than ever in history. While it is irrefutable that under-developed nations are not advanced enough, they do not design nor manufacture modern RE equipment (especially hydropower) necessary to rid fossil fuel energy generating technologies, thereby curtailing the threat of climate change. However, the RE challenge facing both technologically advanced and emerging economies in this 21st century comes in two-fold; meeting the needs of billions of people who still lack access to essential, modern energy utilities while concurrently shifting towards a globally cleaner and carbon-free system. To this end, unparalleled progression towards improved productiveness, low carbon emissions, increased fuel diversity, and reduced GHG emissions must be significantly fast-tracked. Fortunately, the quest for curtailing GHG emissions can be immensely harmonized with other energy-related goals, such as developing indigenous renewable resources and limiting localized forms of pollution.
Though the world’s current energy forecast is, to put it bluntly, “pretty overwhelming.” It is now a choice dependent on whether government priorities focus on economic development, environmental sustainability, or energy stability. Exploiting water resources to generate hydropower comes with several adverse ecological effects, posing serious climate change threats to human well-being. However, there are some opportunities for developing countries too. They stand to benefit from previous experiences, which is crucial to avoid some of the past half century’s policy setbacks, thus having the potential to “leapfrog” straight to safer and more effective technologies. Hydropower is becoming increasingly relevant for conventional lenders like China in this context. The World Bank has previously emphasized hydropower’s potential to address disparities between economic growth, rising energy demand, and climate-sensitive electricity generation needs. 133 In the direction of a sustainable energy future for all, the contribution of hydropower as a viable form of energy supply can be assumed to suit several critical development goals. This will include improving public health, expanding job opportunities, developing local industries, fostering reliance on local resources, and enhancing the regional balance of trade.
Conclusion and recommendations
Both China and Nigeria have abundant water resources and a productive hydropower potential to meet over 20% of their gross electricity needs. Though hydropower has become the core source of global RE and is virtually devoid of CO2 emissions, its utilization comes with some consequences. China has succeeded in overcoming practically all of its avoidable hydropower development challenges, enabling it to claim the top spot in the global hydropower industry. As China’s primary clean RE resource, hydropower plays an essential role in promoting sustainable economic growth, changing the energy architecture, and reducing fossil-based energy use to its minimum. Technologically, China’s hydropower sector is the most developed globally at the moment. Demonstrating its RE readiness and advocacy for a low-carbon global future, China’s hydropower influence has been strongly felt in overseas markets, especially Africa. A collaboration of selected Chinese financial institutions and private companies are now active in not less than 93 major dam projects across the globe. China’s hydroelectric industry's revolutionary global role can be mutually beneficial for China and the host nations involved.
On the other hand, despite its enormous hydropower potential, Nigeria has languished in fossil fuel overdependence and struggled to meet its national energy needs to date. However, the resurgence of the 2015 NREEEP, which set the government’s preference to fully exploit the country’s hydropower potential and promote private sector involvement, witnessed China emerge as the ‘savior’ to spearhead the integrated planning of Nigeria’s hydropower resources after failed attempts by previous governments. The recent hydropower partnership between China and Nigeria will foster the increased use of “green” energy, which is required to structure the “Clean Energy Future” initiative and boost the country’s adoption and development of RE. If enacted properly, this strategy will propel Nigeria towards 100% RE sooner rather than later and ultimately help restructure the energy-use habits of the largest population in Africa.
We, therefore, recommend China’s path-dependent energy policy, which is being managed in the long term and is relatively predictable in the unlikely event of a significant economic or political crisis. Secondly, we recommend an “energy democracy,” which acknowledges any opportunity to shift to RE. The energy democracy plan calls for the abolition of fossil fuels and other centralized energy system policies, the recapturing of the public energy sector, and the reformation of energy systems technology and governance towards greater transparency and inclusiveness. Above all, energy democracy offers a vision of transformations in renewable energy use as a path to democratic progress. Finally, this study is relevant to other regions, especially Africa, where governments and policy-makers have struggled to actualize the need for hydropower partnerships with technologically advanced nations like China. In this context, the United Nations (UN) objective of a steady shift towards a carbon-free future and eventually eradicating GHG pollution edges closer.
Footnotes
Declaration of conflicting interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
