The incumbency advantage and its cause(s) is a question that political scientists have addressed for several years. This article looks at one piece of the puzzle: the sophomore surge. Using the American National Election Panel Studies of 1956-1960 and 1972-1976, I examine three possible scenarios for the sophomore surge: conversion, mobilization, and absten tion. The evidence presented herein supports the argument that first-term incumbents are able to win the votes of those who had supported the losing candidate in the previous election. It would appear that the source of the incumbency advantage is what the incumbents do in office, not the actions of their potential opponents.
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