Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) predictions were examined in light of ethnocentrism and intergroup conflict. An experiment conducted at the outset of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the US, UK and their allies explored American and British participants' preferences for certain versus uncertain gains and losses concerning Iraqi, American, and British lives. In four conditions, participants showed the usual loss-aversion when deciding between options that only affected Iraqi lives. Six other conditions examined choices between the lives of Americans, Britons, or Iraqis. Strong ethnocentric biases rather than risk-aversion occurred. Participants preferred policies that prioritized their own nationals' and allies' lives over Iraqi lives. War-related and other attitudes corresponded to participants' decisions. The need to expand prospect theory to address intergroup relations is discussed.
Berejikian, J. D. (2002). Model building with prospect theory: A cognitive approach to international relations . Political Psychology, 23, 759–786 .
2.
Boettcher, W. (1995). Context, methods, numbers and words: Prospect theory in international relations . Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39, 561–583 .
3.
Brewer, M. B. (1979). In-group bias in the minimal intergroup situation: A cognitive-motivational analysis . Psychological Bulletin, 86, 307–324 .
4.
Campbell, D. T. (1965). Ethnocentric and other altruistic motives. In D. Levine (Ed.), Nebraska symposium on motivation(pp. 283–311). Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press .
5.
Esses, V. M. , Dovidio, J. F. , Jackson, L. M. , & Armstrong, T. L. (2001). The immigration dilemma: The role of perceived group competition, ethnic prejudice, and national identity . Journal of Social Issues, 57, 389–412 .
6.
Fagley, N. S. , & Miller, P. M. (1997). Framing effects and arenas of choice: Your money or your life?Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 39, 264–277 .
7.
Farnham, B. (1992). Roosevelt and the Munich crisis: Insights from prospect theory . Political Psychology, 13, 205–235 .
8.
Farnham, B. (Ed.) (1994). Avoiding losses/taking risks: Prospect theory in international politics. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press .
9.
Fennema, H. , & Wakker, P. (1997). Original and cumulative prospect theory: A discussion of empirical differences . Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 53–64 .
10.
Fischhoff, B. (1991). Value elicitation: Is there anything in there?American Psychologist, 46, 835–847 .
11.
Gaertner, S. , Dovidio, J. F. , & Bachman, B. (1996). Revisiting the contact hypothesis: Induction of a common ingroup identity . International Journal of Intercultural Relations, 20, 271–290 .
12.
Gaertner, S. L. , Mann, J. , Murrell, A. , & Dovidio, J. F. (1989). Reducing intergroup bias: The benefits of recategorization . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 239–249 .
13.
Gallup Organization (May 13, 2003). American public opinion about Iraq. Retrieved 7/17/03 from http://www.gallup.com/poll/focus/sr030224.asp.
14.
Greenberg, J. , Pyszczynski, T. , Solomon, S. , Rosenblatt, A. , Veeder, M. , Kirkland, S. et al. (1990). Evidence for terror management theory: II The effects of mortality salience to those who implicitly or explicitly threaten or support the cultural world view . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58, 308–318 .
15.
Jackson, L. M. , & Esses, V. M. (2000). Effects of perceived economic competition on people's willingness to help empower immigrants . Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 3, 419–435 .
16.
Jervis, R. (1992). Political implications of lossaversion . Political Psychology, 13, 187–204 .
17.
Kahneman, D. , & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk . Econometrica, 47, 263–292 .
18.
Levin, I. P. , & Chapman, D. P. (1990). Risk taking, frame of reference and characterization of victim groups in AIDS treatment decisions . Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 26, 421–434 .
19.
Levin, I. P. , & Chapman, D. P. (1993). Risky decisionmaking and allocation of resources for leukemia and AIDS programs . Health Psychology, 12, 110–117 .
20.
McDermott, R. (1998). Risk-taking in international politics: Prospect theory in American foreign policy. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press .
21.
McDermott, R. (2004a). Editor's introduction . Political Psychology, 25, 147–162 .
22.
McDermott, R. (2004b). Prospect theory in political science: Gains and losses from the first decade . Political Psychology, 25, 289–312 .
23.
McDermott, R. , & Kugler, J. (2001). Comparing rational choice and prospect theory analyses: The US decision to launch operation ‘Desert Storm,’ January, 1991 . Journal of Strategic Studies, 24, 49–85 .
24.
Pratto, F. , & Cathey, C. (2002). The role of social ideologies in legitimizing political attitudes and public policy. In V. Ottati (Ed.), The social psychology of politics(pp. 131–151). New York: Plenum .
25.
Pratto, F. , Sidanius, J. , Stallworth, L. M. , & Malle, B. F. (1994). Social dominance orientation: A personality variable predicting social and political attitudes . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 741–763 .
26.
Quattrone, G. A. , & Tversky, A. (1988). Contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice . American Political Science Review, 83, 716–736 .
27.
Sears, D. O. (1988). Symbolic racism. In P. A. Katz & D. A. Taylor (Eds.), Eliminating racism: Profiles in controversy(pp. 53–84). New York: Plenum .
28.
Sherif, M. , & Sherif, C. W. (1953). Groups in harmony and in tension: An integration of studies on intergroup relations. New York: Harper .
29.
Sidanius, J. , & Pratto, F. (1999). Social dominance: An intergroup theory of social hierarchy and oppression. New York: Cambridge University Press .
30.
Time. (March 23, 2002). Time poll reveals declining British support for the war against terror. Retrieved July 17, 2003 from http://www.mori.com/polls/2002/time.shtml.
31.
Travis, A. (January 21, 2003a). Support for war falls to new low. Guardian Unlimited. Retrieved July 22, 2003 from http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,879104,00.html.
32.
Travis, A. (April 15, 2003b). Surge in war support confirms dramatic shift in public opinion. Guardian Unlimited. Retrieved July 22, 2003 from http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,3605,937016.00.html.
33.
Tversky, A. , & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice . Science, 211, 453–458 .
34.
Tversky, A. , & Simonson, I. (1993). Context-dependent preferences . Management Science, 39, 1179–1189 .
