How many working days would be missed due to moderate or severe influenza pandemic in China?

Abstract

Background: Under the current situation of influenza pandemic outbreak, it is urgent to estimate the potential work days lost in China. Method: We used a Monte-Carlo simulation model based on the analysis framework of the FluWorkLoss 1.0 software to estimate the number of work days lost. Results: Work days lost caused by caring for family members were more than that caused by one’s own illness. The care of a child caused more work days missed than the care of an elderly. Conclusions: During a mild to moderate pandemic, outpatients and children need more attention. During a severe pandemic, inpatients and working adults will be the focus.

Keywords

China influenza pandemic Monte-Carlo method productivity loss

References

Keech M. , Beardsworth P. The impact of influenza on working days lost: a review of the literature. Pharmacoeconomics 2008;26(11):911-24.

Sessa A. , Costa B. , Bamfi F. , Bettoncelli G. , Ambrosio GD The incidence, natural history and associated outcomes of influenza-like illness and clinical influenza in Italy. Fam Pract 2000;18(6):629-34.

Williams JP , Lednar W. New developments in influenza vaccine technology: a potential new prevention strategy for employers and managed care organizations . Am J Managed Care 2002;8(4):S145-56.

Meltzer MI , Cox NJ , Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Emerg Infect Dis 1999;5(5):659-71.

Molinari NA , Ortega-Sanchez IR , Messonier ML , Thompson WW , Wortley PM , Weintraub E. , et al. The annual impact of seasonal influenza in the US: measuring disease burden and costs. Vaccine 2007;25(27):5086-96.

Akazawa M. , Sindelar JL , Paltiel AD Economic costs of influenza-related work absenteeism . Value Health 2003;6(2):107-15.

Carrat F. , Sahler C. , Rogez S. , Ville ML , Freymuth F. , Gales CL , et al. Influenza burden of illness estimates from a national prospective survey of household contacts in France. Arch Intern Med 2002;162(16):1842-8.

Yu HJ , Feng LZ , Peng ZB , Feng ZJ , Shay DK , Yang WZ Estimates of the impact of a future influenza pandemic in China. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 2009;3(5):223-31.

FluWorkLoss 1.0. Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/tools/fluworkloss/.

10.

Dhankhar P. , Zhang XZ , Meltzer MI , Bridges CB FluWorkLoss 1.0 Manual. Atlanta: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/FluWorkloss_Manual_102306.pdf.

11.

National Bureau of Statistics, People’s Republic of China. China Statistics Yearbook 2001. Beijing: China Statistics Press; 2002.

12.

National Bureau of Statistics, People’s Republic of China. China Statistics Yearbook 2008. Beijing: China Statistics Press ; 2008.

13.

Sung HY , Wang L. , Jin S. , Hu TW , Jiang Y. Economic burden of smoking in China, 2000. Tob Cont 2006;15(SupplI):i5-11.

14.

World Health Organization. China 2006 Life Table. Available at: http://apps.who.int/ghodata/?vid=720#

15.

Simmerman J. , Lertiendumrong J. , Dowell SF , Uyeki T. , Olsen SJ , Chittaganpitch M. , et al. The cost of influenza in Thailand. Vaccine 2006;24(20):4417-26.

16.

Fendrick AM , Monto AS , Nightengale B. , Sarnes M. The economic burden of non-influenza-related viral respiratory tract infection in the United States. Arch Intern Med 2003;163(4):487-94.

17.

Chiu SS , Lau YL , Chan KH , Wong WH , Peiris JS Influenza-related hospitalizations among children in Hong Kong. N Eng J Med 2002;347(12):2097-103.

18.

Schrag SJ , Shay DK , Gershman K. , Thomas A. , Craig AS , Schaffner W. , et al. Multistate surveillance for laboratory-confirmed, influenza-associated hospitalizations in children, 2003-2004. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2006;25(5):395-400.

19.

Rogelio PP , Daniela RZ , Samuel PL , Mauricio H. , Francisco QF , Edgar B. , et al. Pneumonia and respiratory failure from swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico. The New England J Med 2009;361:680-9.

20.

Liaoning Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau of People’s Republic of China. . Available at: http://www.lnciq.gov.cn/fkzlg/fkzlggzdt/200905/t20090520_25042.html.

21.

Tsolia MN , Logotheti I. , Papadopoulos NG , Mavrikoub M. , Spyridisa NP , Drossatoua P. , et al. Impact of influenza infection in healthy children examined as outpatients and their families. Vaccine 2006 ;24(8):5970-6.

22.

Heikkinen T. , Silvennoinen H. , Peltola V. , Ziegler T. , Vainionpää R. , Vuorinen T. , Kainulainen L. , et al. Burden of influenza in children in the community. J Infect Dis 2004;190(10):1369-73.

23.

Kilbourne ED Influenza pandemics of the 20th century. Emerg Infect Dis 2006;12(1):9-14.

24.

Jefferson T. , Demicheli V. Economic analysis of influenza vaccination and treatment. Ann Internal Med 2003;138(4):607-8.