Abstract
There are several types of planning processes and plans, including strategic, operational, tactical, and contingency. For this document, operational planning includes tactical planning. This chapter examines the strategic planning process and includes an introduction into disaster response plans. “A strategic plan is an outline of steps designed with the goals of the entire organisation as a whole in mind, rather than with the goals of specific divisions or departments”. Strategic planning includes all measures taken to provide a broad picture of what must be achieved and in which order, including how to organise a system capable of achieving the overall goals. Strategic planning often is done pre-event, based on previous experience and expertise. The strategic planning for disasters converts needs into a strategic plan of action. Strategic plans detail the goals that must be achieved. The process of converting needs into plans has been deconstructed into its components and includes consideration of: (1) disaster response plans; (2) interventions underway or planned; (3) available resources; (4) current status vs. pre-event status; (5) history and experience of the planners; and (6) access to the affected population. These factors are tempered by the local: (a) geography; (b) climate; (c) culture; (d) safety; and (e) practicality. The planning process consumes resources (costs). All plans must be adapted to the actual conditions – things never happen exactly as planned.
Keywords
He who fails to plan is planning to fail
Introduction
This chapter describes the planning process. Planning is categorised into three levels: (1) strategic; (2) operational; and (3) tactical [1]. For most organisations, there is no need to distinguish between operational and tactical planning. “A strategic plan is an outline of steps designed with the goals of the entire organisation as a whole in mind, rather than with the goals of specific divisions or departments” [1]. Strategic planning includes all measures taken to provide a broad picture of what must be achieved and in which order, including how to organise a system capable of achieving the overall goals. Strategic planning often is done pre-event, based on previous experience and expertise. An operational plan is the plan that a manager uses to accomplish his/her job responsibilities. “Operational planning includes all elements and actions required to be taken to achieve each single objective” [1]. Operational planning also may be done generically pre-event, but must be adjusted according to the circumstances. “A tactical plan is concerned with what the lower level units within each division must do, how they must do it, and who is in charge at each level. Tactics are the means needed to activate a strategy and make it work. Tactical plans are concerned with shorter time frames and narrower scopes than are strategic plans” [1]. The terms operational and tactical planning often are used interchangeably. For this document, the terms “strategic planning” and “operational planning” will be used. 1
If disaster response plans (DRPs) that are applicable to the situation are not available, strategic and operational planning may be combined; when this occurs, the processes used become blurred and may compromise the quality of subsequent evaluations. It is recognised that:
strategic and operational planning share common elements
strategic and operational plans can be both generic and/or specific
both strategic and operational/tactical planning can be done pre-event as part of preparedness (contingency), as well as after an event has occurred.
One additional type of planning that is important for the management of disasters is contingency planning; “Intelligent and successful management depends upon a constant pursuit of adaptation, flexibility, and mastery of changing conditions. Strong management requires a ‘keeping all options open’ approach at all times. Contingency planning derives from contingent and involves identifying alternative courses of action that can be implemented if and when the original plan proves inadequate because of changing circumstances” [1].
The essential information for planners includes the time and place of the event(s), and the respective goal(s) to be attained. The ultimate goal is to return the affected society at least back to its pre-event functional state. However, the return of all the BSFs to their respective pre-event levels of functions rarely occurs during disasters. Consequently, any preparedness plan may need to be modified to fit the exact circumstances.
Assessments and the identification of needs do not automatically result in action. The entire process from assessment through evaluation is diagrammed in Figures 8.1 and 8.2. Briefly, these processes include: (1) assessment; (2) identification of needs; (3) strategic planning; (4) selection of intervention(s); (5) operational planning; (6) execution of interventions; and (7) monitoring and evaluating the effects and changes in levels of functions. Each of these processes requires synthesis and integration by qualified persons. The output of the planning process is a strategic plan that describes what must be accomplished and addresses a series of goals and objectives that aim to meet the defined needs. When indicated, the strategic plan must be converted into actions (i.e. the planned interventions must be implemented). In relation to disasters, these processes ideally should be authorised by and be under the auspices of a coordination and control entity.
Goals and objectives
The strategic plans resulting from the planning process must include the goals and objectives to be achieved. Although some use the terms “goals” and “objectives” interchangeably, there are distinct differences between the terms. A goal is an aim [2]; it is something to be achieved as part of the mission. Goals are broad, overarching, general, intangible, and often abstract (non-specific). An objective is a concrete attainment that can be achieved by following certain steps. Goals relate to the outcome(s) of interventions. An objective is a milestone that reaches towards the goal. Objectives are narrow, precise, tangible, and concrete [3–5]. According to Andrew Smith, objectives frequently are written to meet the so-called SMART rules; SMART stands for Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time bound [2]. Each intervention has its specific objective(s) (output(s)). All of the different objectives achieved by the different interventions contribute to achieving the overall goal.
The effectiveness of each intervention must be assessed on the basis of the defined objectives for the intervention. Further, the goals and objectives outlined in the strategic plan must incorporate the same respective indicators of function that are used to describe the pre-event functions. The use of identical indicators is essential in order to identify the effectiveness of each intervention in achieving the objective level of function. Thus, each planned intervention will be selected on the probability that the desired goals outlined in the strategic plan can be attained and will provide the greatest possible benefit to the affected society (overarching goal) at the lowest possible consumption of resources (costs).
The indicators for objectives (output indicators) differs from indicators for goals (outcome indicators). Otherwise any failure or misinterpretation in the identification of needs will not be revealed (see also Chapter 6).
Strategic planning
Strategic planning is a production process. The output of the planning process is a plan. A plan is a formulated and a detailed method by which a thing is to be done [2]. The plan that results from the planning process details the interventions that must be implemented and the respective goals and some of the objectives that must be accomplished to meet the identified needs. It also defines the priorities, sequencing, and timeframes over which each of the goals should be achieved. In order to identify possible critical points of success and/or failure in the planning process, the planning process has been deconstructed into its components (Figure 11.1). Strategic planning to meet the defined needs requires synthesis of numerous factors. It is a complex production process that integrates the defined needs with: (1) the existing DRP (preparedness and contingency plans); (2) the interventions currently underway or planned; (3) the resources available to meet needs; (4) the pre-event status compared with current status; and (5) the experience and expertise of the planners in managing similar situations. Also, strategic planning must include considerations of: (a) geography; (b) access; (c) climate; (d) the culture of the population; (e) the views of all stakeholders; and (f) safety. The perspective of the planners on the aforementioned topics are slightly different than what is included in the assessments of the same topics, as it addresses operational issues in a generic and detailed perspective. Strategic plans also must assure that the priority list of the defined needs (Chapter 10) are reviewed and updated so that the process used for selection of the most appropriate interventions is current.
Elements constituting a strategic planning process.
This process not only applies to descriptions of interventions that could meet the specific needs in times of crisis, but also applies to the development of DRPs at the home, workplace, local, community, district, state, country, and international levels, and also is appropriate for any humanitarian assistance as well as recovery and development. The process used for the development of DRPs is discussed in the preparedness section of these Guidelines.
Needs
The process used to define the needs of the affected community is described in Chapter 10. The needs addressed may be single or multiple, may be nested by groups, and consist of goods and/or services. The needs may involve one or more of the basic societal functions (BSFs). Also, as noted, the needs may differ from the demands of the affected population [6]. Needs must be expressed in terms of the amount of resources as well as the urgency and priority by which they must be addressed. Identified critical needs must be assigned the highest priorities.
Disaster response plan
The processes used and the importance of DRPs are discussed in Chapters 17 and 18. Many of the needs should have been anticipated before the primary event occurred, and therefore, their context and possible solutions should have been included in the existing DRP. As part of the DRP, solutions should have been identified and tested through exercises and drills. 2
Disaster response plans anticipate what damages and changes in function are likely to result from specific events. They address the consequent opportunity costs, alternative use of existing resources, and the process to be used for curtailing less important activities. They also define the thresholds that will determine when response capacity from outside of the area is needed. DRPs are part of preparedness, and are included as part of the response capacity. Outlines/templates for such response plans are available on the Internet from multiple sources [7–10]. It is beyond the scope of this text to provide instructions on how to construct DRPs. DRPs should be comprehensive and encompass all of the possible hazards for which the population is at risk. Thus, they should be comprised of a generic section (for all possible events), yet also must include annexes addressing specific hazards for which the entity is at risk and events are likely to develop. Most often, the responses utilise the resources that have been cached as part of the response capacity. DRPs should cover all of the aspects involved in responses to the changes in functions that have resulted from the damage created by the event(s), including all of the BSFs. Often, specific sections deal with the plans of a specific BSF or sets of BSFs.
The resulting strategic plans must be exercised, discussed, and re-evaluated frequently in order to: (1) determine whether they are practical; (2) familiarise responders with the mechanics of the plan; (3) identify the respective roles of possible responders; (4) identify ways in which the planned responses can be improved; (5) identify the supplies, equipment, and/or personnel that must be added to the response capacity; and (6) identify additional arrangements that must be added to the DRP (i.e. contracts/memoranda of understanding with other administrative structures, see Chapter 7).
Thus, often, some plans for meeting anticipated needs already exist. But, despite the existing plans, it never is possible to predict exactly which needs will result during or following the occurrence of an event. This is apparent during the early stages of a sudden-onset event, when it may not be logistically possible to conduct comprehensive or even rapid assessments and to identify needs. No matter how comprehensive a DRP may be, it must be re-adjusted to deal with what actually is occurring. The needs that had been identified must be reviewed in the light of those that materialise during the real event.
Lastly, the designated resources may not be available when they are required. Stockpiles of supplies may have been directed to other needs, the pharmaceuticals may have expired, or the warehouses and/or stockpiles may have been damaged by the event. Personnel may have been injured/killed, may not be able to reach the medical facility, or may refuse to report because of other commitments. Thus, even the best of plans must be modified as all of the factors that come into play during a disaster cannot be exactly anticipated [11].
Interventions underway or planned
Other factors that must be considered in planning include the interventions that already are underway within or outside of the affected area. Such parallel activities may be positive but, in the absence of proper coordination and control, also may be counterproductive. Resources that ought to be available according to the plan may have been consumed by other responses that already are underway within or even outside of the BSF (interdependency). Plans to meet other defined needs also may be dependent upon the same resources. Consequently, some of the provisions of the new plan may collide or compete with other planned or ongoing interventions. Other plans may negate the need for the plan being considered, and/or the new plan may best be combined with other plans. Hence, the planners must consider issues and actors outside of the immediately apparent need. Thus, coordination of plans with those of other BSFs is an essential component of strategic planning (Chapter 6).
Available resources
Appropriate strategic plans always must include the consideration of the availability of the resources that implementation of the strategic plan may require. Although it was anticipated in the DRP that the resources required would be available, they may not be accessible. A plan that does not consider how to access the resources required to develop or implement the plan and does not make the appropriate provisions for this possibility (actions, workload, time, etc.) is destined to fail. If the required resources necessary to implement the plan are not immediately available, are the required resources available from alternate sources? Were they lost in the event? How many of the healthcare staff were injured or killed? Could the healthcare staff get to the health facilities? Furthermore, conditional needs require conditional resources [12 p115].
Current status compared with pre-event status
The ultimate objective of responses (interventions) is to return the functioning of the affected society to its pre-event levels of function (recovery). Indicators of function for each of the BSFs should have been used to define the pre-event status. The same indicators that were used in defining the pre-event levels of function must be used to define the losses of function due to the event(s). Any function or sub-function that is at (or above) the pre-event functional state requires no further responses. Interventions to improve the functional status above the pre-event state are part of development and should not be considered while planning for responses during either the relief or recovery phases of a disaster. The effects of any intervention aimed at relief and recovery will be evaluated relative to their contribution to preventing or mitigating further deterioration or returning the function to its pre-event levels of functioning (indicators of effectiveness). Thus, current levels of function must be defined relative to their respective critical thresholds (if one exists) and functional thresholds.
History and experience of the planners
The strategic planning process is complex, and is best accomplished by persons who have had previous experience(s), especially during an actual disaster. All of the planners should have had experience working with the coordination and control centre at their respective appropriate levels. Experience can be obtained not only from participation in the coordination and control of disasters, but also by participation in disaster exercises (drills). Planners should have experience in the formulation and testing of the DRPs – disasters rarely follow the exact course anticipated in any plan. The planners also should have experience in solving problems not addressed in the DRP. Challenges should be incorporated into disaster exercises.
Access to the affected population/site
Planned interventions for the affected society cannot be implemented if the responders do not have access to the affected population. Roads may have been disrupted, bridges collapsed, rail lines interrupted, and medical facilities may have been rendered inoperative. These damages and their respective losses of function must be addressed as a matter of priority. Thus, planning for relief and/or recovery requires interactions of the medical care and public health BSFs with the logistics and transportation and the public works and engineering BSFs. For example, the only available means of access to the site may be through the use of helicopters. In addition, the necessary supplies of energy must be available for the transport of personnel, equipment, and supplies. When access is difficult, prioritising the use of limited transportation resources becomes key. Competition may occur between BSFs as each will have its own priorities. This highlights the needs for disaster planning and management decisions to be the responsibilities of the coordination and control centre.
Geography
The geography (i.e. the physical environment, including routes into and out of the affected area) must be considered, not only for the reasons of access, but also because the terrain may have significant implications for the establishment of supplemental facilities, including field hospitals, temporary clinics, storage facilities for medical supplies and equipment, and sanitary installations. The geography also may be responsible for generating secondary events due to activation of other hazards. For example, is it likely that mudslides or avalanches could occur? Will certain areas be prone to flooding? Will there be access to water and sanitary facilities? What special considerations, if any, must be taken into account due to the geographical limitations or advantages of the potential sites (e.g. access to electrical power, communications)? For example, a person requires at least 2 litres (preferably 15 litres) of water/day, but only 500 g of dry food rations. Consequently, establishing temporary or supplemental facilities with proximity to water sources normally is more important than proximity to sources of food.
Climate (current and anticipated weather)
The current and anticipated climate in the affected area will have implications for responses, and hence, must be integrated into planning. What types of clothing and shelter will be required for the population and the responders? Will blankets or mosquito netting be required? Will refrigeration or heating facilities be required? Must water be imported or can it be obtained by collecting rain or melting snow? What disease vectors can be anticipated? Does protection against cold weather have a higher priority than the provision of water?
Culture of the affected population
The culture, religions, and traditions of the affected population play important roles in the establishment of plans to meet the needs of the affected population. These factors also have been noted to be important in the identification of needs as discussed in the preceding chapter. Inappropriate responses including medical supplies, food, or clothing not compatible with the culture, not only are an affront to the population, they take up space and consume transportation and management capabilities that could be used for more appropriate responses. Thus, the importance of including knowledgeable members of the affected or potentially affected segments of the population in the planning process is essential.
Knowledge and consideration of cultural norms are mandatory not only for determining what is needed, but also for determining how to interact when executing an intervention (e.g. it is counterproductive to liaise with a Council of Elderly in a Muslim society through a young man or a woman ≤30 years of age).
Safety/security
The safety and security of all responders must be assured. From 7 May 1993 until 2 February 2009 the “Patronus Analytical” has listed a total of 319 incidents in which at least 481 local aid workers and 179 expatriate aid workers have been killed. Of these, 319 incidents (90%) were due to violence and only 10% were due to accidents [13]. Further, there are numerous examples of the premature departure of responders from the disaster site because they felt their lives were in danger [14, 15]. International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) aid workers felt forced to abandon their hospital in Berbera, Somalia January 1991. 3 In Kabul in July 1992, all ICRC expatriates were evacuated from the ICRC Hospital for War Wounded, Karte Seh, Kabul Afghanistan, leaving approximately 300 patients behind. 4 In 1996, the ICRC withdrew from Burundi and Chechnya after the killing of three and six delegates, respectively [11]. Recently, Doctors without Borders (MSF) have stated, “Insecurity nearly everywhere is forcing aid organisations, including MSF, to periodically withdraw staff or reevaluate their presence in some areas” [16].
The safety and security of responders is a right of the responders and is the responsibility of the recipients of the aid. Thus, the affected country must provide local security forces through their security BSF system to assure the safety of all international support personnel.
All DRPs must include considerations of the possibility that a secondary event may follow the primary, precipitating event. For example, is there the likelihood that mudslides will follow a heavy rain event? Is there a possibility that the dykes may not hold the water accumulated from a severe rain event, as occurred in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina? Will there be another explosion or aftershocks associated with an earthquake? These considerations are necessary in order to ensure that responders are not placed or place themselves in harm’s way.
Costs
Costs are an expenditure of resources [2 p302, 12 p148]. The costs associated with the development, testing, and modifications of a strategic plan include economic, materials, environmental, human, and opportunity costs. Indicators of human and opportunity costs are difficult to account, and often the resources consumed by the planning process are not accounted. Human costs include the time invested and the opportunity costs associated with the consumption of this time. Substantial amounts of resources are consumed in developing and testing the plan and the modifications to the plan that result from the testing process.
Practicality
A plan must be feasible, realistic, and concerned with what actually is possible [2]. The best-laid plans are irrelevant if they cannot be accomplished. Plans that seem excellent on paper may never be implemented because they are impossible to implement – they require unavailable resources, or they are not possible given the environment, culture, weather, terrain, etc. Thus, each of the factors described above determines whether the plan actually can be implemented and is likely to produce the outcomes for which it has been devised with as few unwanted effects as is possible.
Priorities
Strategic plans also must place the defined needs and responses into respective priority lists for consideration. Clearly, identified critical needs must be addressed before functional needs. Following a sudden-onset event, critical needs often can be anticipated based on established science and previous experience. Dependencies, and especially the interdependencies of the respective BSF(s) must be identified and considered. Priorities for recovery activities should begin as early in the longitudinal phases as is possible [17,18].
Summary
The planning process is complex and requires expertise for the integration of each of the factors outlined and discussed. The resulting strategic plan lays down the overarching goals and major objectives for which the intervention(s) will be selected.
Any initiative, regardless of whether it is part of improving the preparedness of a society or, in case of disasters, consists of immediate urgent actions, should be preceded by an assessment and appropriate, inclusive coordination. Agreement on certain elements in advance (i.e. representative indicators, methods, and team composition) will shorten such planning when circumstances so dictate.