Abstract
This book presents a detailed assessment of the significance of the mode of transition in democratisation processes. Guo and Stradiotto argue that the mode of transition plays a central role in shaping the quality and duration of the resulting regime. The authors point to four modes that are distinguished by either peaceful change (conversion and cooperation) or more violent upheaval (collapse and foreign intervention). The core claim is that transitions involving the peaceful removal of the existing regime through negotiation are more sustainable than those involving violence or incumbent domination (elite conversion of the system). These claims are based on a comprehensive review of the literature and supported by statistical analysis of all regime changes between 1900 and 1999. Moving beyond assessing past transitions, the authors use predicted value probability to determine the likely outcome of regime change in Iraq and states affected by the Arab Spring, as well as China’s prospects should regime change occur there in the future. Drawing on the factors identified previously, these cases present more positive longer term outcomes than the initial developments would suggest.
The argument advanced in the book that transitions involving violence and elite domination are less sustainable over the long term is clear and well supported by the evidence. By examining variations in the mode of transition, the authors have re-established the significance of this factor in determining longer term outcomes in democratising states. The assessment of the Arab Spring cases shows the complications associated with democratisation and point to the fact that the mode of transition is not necessarily clear-cut, as different actors emerge to complicate the picture. Close examination of a selection of past cases could have been used to delve deeper into the actual mechanisms that impact on sustainability, test the predicted value probability model and also address issues of path dependence. There are also opportunities to consider change in cases that transitioned more than once during the period (i.e. Chile, Greece, Fiji and Syria) to compare the impact of multiple successful and unsuccessful attempts at democratisation. Much of the book also relies on an ageing literature (pre-2008) and would have benefited from an examination of the treatment of modes of transition or its absence in contemporary work. Overall, the book is well written and convincing, although there are a number of typos that detract somewhat from this. The comprehensive treatment of modes of transition and predictive modelling makes this book relevant to established readers as well as researchers new to the field.