The problem and the solution. Humans constantly construct mental models of reality, which include their assumptions, beliefs, experiences, and biases about the world. In fact, humans construct mental models of reality often without an awareness of it. In decision making, mental models include an individual's perception of a situation, variables in the system, alternative solutions, decision premises, and biases. Because mental models reflect the decision structure and are difficult to understand on a concrete level, this article aims to illustrate the influence of mental models on decision-making processes and, more important, how they can be made explicit and altered. In addition, this article suggests that working with mental models can be viewed as a developmental process and thus is within the domain of human resource development expertise.
References
1.
Allee, V. (1997). The knowledge evolution: Expanding organizational intelligence.Newton, MA: Focal Press.
2.
Bazerman, M. H. (1994). Judgment in managerial decision-making (3rd ed.). New York: John Wiley.
3.
Bechtel, W. (1998). Representations and cognitive explanations: Assessing the dynamicist’s challenge in cognitive science. Cognitive Science, 22(3), 295-318.
4.
Carley, K., & Palmquist, M. (1992). Extracting, representing, and analyzing mental models. Social Forces, 70(3), 601-636.
5.
de Geus, A. P. (1992). Modelling to predict or to learn? European Journal of Operational Research, 59, 1-5.
6.
de Geus, A. P. (1997). The living company. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
7.
Dorner, D. (1996). The logic of failure. New York: Metropolitan Books/Henry Holt.
8.
Doyle, J. K., & Ford, D. N. (1998). Mental models concepts for system dynamics research. Systems Dynamics Review, 14(1), 3-29.
9.
Doyle, J. K., & Ford, D. N. (1999). Mental models concepts revisited: Some clarifications and a reply to Lane. Systems Dynamics Review, 15(4), 411-415.
10.
Fischoff, B. (1982). For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight (Article 23). In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 335-351). New York: Cambridge University Press.
11.
Ford, D. N., & Sterman, J. D. (1998). Expert knowledge elicitation to improve formal and mental models. Systems Dynamics Review, 14(4), 309-340.
12.
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
13.
Freyd, J. J. (1987). Dynamic mental representations. Psychological Review, 94(4), 427-438.
14.
Georgantzas, N. C., & Acar, W. (1995). Scenario-driven planning: Learning to manage strategic uncertainty. Westport, CT: Quorum
Johnson-Laird, P. (1983). Mental models. Boston: Cambridge University Press.
17.
Micklethwait, J., & Woolridge, A. (1995). The witch doctors: What the management gurus are saying, why it matters, and how to make sense of it. New York: Times Books.
18.
Morecroft, J. D. W. (1983). System dynamics: Portraying bounded rationality. Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 11(2), 131-142.
19.
Rochlin, G. I. (1998). Essential friction: Error-control in organizational behavior. In N. Akerman (Ed.), The necessity of friction. Boulder, CO: Westview.
20.
Ruona, W. E. A., & Lynham, S. A. (in press). A philosophical framework for thought and practice in human resource development. Human Resource Development Review.
21.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. New York: Doubleday.
22.
Senge, P. (1990). The fifth discipline. New York: Doubleday.
23.
Senge, P. (1994). Learning to alter mental models. Executive Excellence, 11(3), 16-17.
24.
Sterman, J. D. (1989). Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 301-335.
25.
Swanson, R. A. (1994). Analysis for improving performance: Tools for diagnosing and documenting workplace expertise. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.
26.
Tuchman, B. W. (1984). The march of folly: From Troy to Vietnam. New York: Ballantine.
27.
van der Heijden, K. (1997). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. New York: John Wiley.
28.
van der Merwe, L. (1994). Bringing diverse people to common purpose. In P. M. Senge, A. Kleiner, C. Roberts, R. B. Ross, & B. J. Smith (Eds.), The fifth discipline fieldbook: Strategies and tools for building a learning organization (pp. 193-195). New York: Doubleday.
29.
Ward, E., & Schriefer, A. E. (1998). Dynamic scenarios: System thinking meets scenario planning. In L. Fahey & R. Randall (Eds.), Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios (pp. 79-94). New York: John Wiley.
30.
Warren, K. (1995). Exploring competitive futures using cognitive mapping. Long Range Planning, 28(5), 1-9.
31.
Weick, K. E. (1979). The social psychology of organizing. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
32.
Weick, K. E. (1985). Sources of order in underorganized systems: Themes in recent organizational theory. In Y. S. Lincoln (Ed.), Organizational theory and inquiry (pp. 106-136). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
33.
Weick, K. E. (1990). Introduction: Cartographic myths in organizations. In A. Sigismund Huff (Ed.), Mapping strategic thought (pp. 1-10). New York: John Wiley.
