Abstract
Edward Waltz endeavors to provide a complete traversal of the concepts and abstractions of mental models – a person’s perception and understanding of a structure – with application to the world of intelligence analysis. The goal is to describe a systematic approach to intelligence that utilizes analysts’ mental models to make judgments and provide reasoning about subjects. Beginning with how mental models are internalized by analysts, the author provides various approaches, by way of explicit modeling, to externalize and codify these models in order to provide a basis for further analysis, both qualitative and quantitative in real-world-type systems. Once conceptualized, these mental models can be used to simplify high levels of abstractions, discretize concepts, and allow for sharable, exploratory intelligence analysis. In the information-dense introductory chapters, Waltz even considers the philosophical dimensions of mental models: the idea of perception, can be manifested into concepts such as forecasting, reasoning, and prediction.
Beginning with Chapter 4, Waltz builds on his detailed discussion of the analyst’s point of reference and expertise. He introduces external sources, like narratives, timelines, and maps that provide greater substance and nuance for mental models. Once these models have been mapped and achieve a level of concreteness, they can be incorporated into schemas. Schemas, or specific mental model structures that are further organized, can be presented in various forms such as temporal, geo-spatial, or social; schemas thus can be an effective and compelling way to provide an intelligence narrative to other analysts. More explicit schemas or models can then be used to create specific mathematical or logistical expressions and more complicated models extended to simulations. These more rigorous approaches rely on the initial observation, hypotheses, and data being represented to produce systematic, deterministic forms, which can then be utilized as an actionable system or can be stored and employed to further develop schemas.
After these detailed foundational chapters, which many readers may feel compelled to re-examine for clarity, the author shifts his focus in Chapter 7 to the use of explicit models for specific targets. Waltz provides guidelines, such as causal, data, and hybrid modeling, on how theoretical, empirical, or a combination of the two models can be designed and implemented with a specific target in mind, as sometimes these models need to translate the target into more abstraction. The author notes that the fidelity of these abstractions shapes the predictive models and the definition of the targets themselves. These definitions can be formed by means of observable and recordable data based on their associations, spatial location(s), and temporal events. Schemas that can be both static and dynamic in nature should then be scrutinized to aid in their validity. With its clear structure, this middle section of the book proves more satisfying, not least because of the ease of retention compared to the opening chapters.
Beginning with Chapter 8, the final three chapters of the book highlights some of the author’s more crucial contributions to the field of intelligence studies, as the focus shifts to how these models are applied to actual systems, specifically in the form of analytical games or gaming methods. The author defines these analytical games and how they can take shape with one or multiple participants. Waltz provides exemplary insight by dissecting these games and showing their utility in matters like hypothesis testing and validating. These chapters are the most impactful because they introduce topics that can easily be referred back to and applied to a multitude of different real-world conditions, for example a case study in ‘conducting analytical games to support intelligence’. This case study includes two such games, their definitions and goals, and a detailed timeline on how to conduct these game scenarios. Basically, a ‘how-to’ guide for developing an analytical game.
Waltz succeeds in providing rich information in a coherent, linear progression (from personal perceptions to mental models, to explicit models, to target analysis, to application) that makes for a substantial contribution to the field. However, many of the book’s concepts are difficult to grasp due to the complexity of the concepts themselves and, in some cases, their flawed presentation in the figures featured in the chapters. The author utilizes network diagrams or charts in forms such as sociograms, ontologies, taxonomies, and conditional or logistical expressions. Some figures, like those that present material in a comprehensible size by limiting their breadth to 5 to 10 entities or relationships, succeed in bolstering or clarifying arguments and concepts. But on many occasions, network or flow-like charts represent up to 30 entities and 40-plus relationships, making them very difficult to parse, let alone utilize later for recall. The figures’ font size or style are also frequently too small, too verbose, or distorted based on compression issues – all to the detriment of the text. The book would have been well served by maintaining and presenting only that information deemed essential or clearly figure-worthy.
Due to its initial steep learning curve required, Quantitative Intelligence Analysis is not well suited to a general academic or lay audience. However, to an established audience of intelligence studies scholars or practitioners, the book would be an effective contribution to intelligence analysis pedagogy. Contrary to the author’s ‘Preface’ that this text should not to be used as a textbook, the book may fit best in a classroom setting, where a teacher could present this material and allow students the ability to discuss more intricate parts of this comprehensive treatment. A classroom setting would also make effective use of the book’s case studies that help apply lessons learned to real-world situations. The welcome subject matter of mental models is applicable to many aspects of technology and the author provides great detail on all facets of mental models. Experienced readers will find Waltz’s expertise does help to synthesize complex concepts and thus stimulate further conversation in intelligences studies, albeit ideally in a classroom setting.