Abstract
Mea culpas have been the order of the day in British politics of late. In the wake of June’s unexpected General Election result myriad commentators – and more than a few political scientists – threw their hands in the air, declaring ‘I got it wrong’.
Almost no-one, your editor included, predicted that Theresa May’s snap election – which was hardly seen as a gamble at all in April – would reduce the Conservatives to minority government, and see Jeremy Corbyn lead Labour to its largest vote share in a generation.
Far from clarifying the future direction of Britain’s exit from the European Union, the General Election has made predictions even more difficult. That might not be a bad thing. If Brexit, Trump and now the 2017 General Election has taught us anything, it is that conventional political wisdom is no longer, well, very conventional.
Take that oft-repeated truism ‘young people don’t vote’. In this issue’s lead feature, John Curtice examines the General Election result and finds that age has emerged as a major cleavage in British politics, with Conservative voters older and Labour supporters overwhelmingly younger. This ‘age gap’ could become an increasingly significant feature of our politics in the years ahead.
June also confirmed the regional and national divisions within British politics. In our series delving into the General Election result across the UK, Andrew Mycock looks at how the vote broke down in England, and finds that issues around English identity and regional devolution remain unresolved.
Wales was widely predicted as the site of a potential political earthquake, with Theresa May making frequent visits ahead of anticipated Tory gains. Instead, as Roger Scully reports, Labour won half of the vote. In Scotland, Nicola McEwen examines a difficult night for the Scottish National Party, while Jon Tonge looks at Northern Ireland, where the Democratic Unionists emerged as ‘queen-makers’ in Downing Street while Sinn Fein broke new ground, too.
Tim Bale and Paul Webb analyse what went wrong for the Conservatives during a campaign that began with record poll leads and ended with May clinging onto power. Andrew Crines looks at arguably the election’s biggest winner – Jeremy Corbyn – and finds that while the Labour leader is now in a commanding position within his party, he remains an ineffective parliamentary leader.
2017 was supposed to be the Brexit election, but in many respects the vote to leave the European Union was conspicuous by its absence during the campaign. And yet Brexit is set to dominate our politics for the coming years, if not the coming generations.
In our regular In Focus slot, Benjamin D. Hennig plots the geography of both the General Election result and the Brexit referendum. Paul Whiteley examines why the UK voted to leave the European Union, and finds a complex picture with a wide variety of long- and short-term factors playing a role in the referendum result.
With the last 18 months revealing the limits of political predictions – and of orthodox views about the future of democracy – Matthew Flinders argues that we need to pay more attention to the role of emotion in our politics. Elsewhere, James P. Pfiffner looks at the challenges facing President Trump’s chaotic White House and Brendan Moore examines the politics of climate change in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, Meryl Kenny reports on the successes – and challenges – for gender equality in our politics.
Predicting the political future might be a mug’s game but we can be certain that the coming months and years will bring further change. Political Insight will be here to follow all the developments. If you would like to join the debates or contribute to Political Insight please drop me an email (address below) or log on to www.politicalinsightmagazine.com.