Elections in Indo-Pacific: 2019: Introduction to the Special Issue

In 2019, elections were conducted in a number of nations in Indo-Pacific. This special issue presents analyses of the elections in India, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines and Australia, each written by a specialist with extensive experience of domestic politics and elections in their country of study. ¹ The elections discussed in this special issue vary in scope from the general elections in India and Thailand, and the upper house election in Japan, to the mid-term elections in the Philippines, and the House of Representatives election in Australia. Only some of these elections have a direct impact on national government formation, but the results of all serve as barometers of the mood of the electorate endorsing or opposing the national government.

Most election results nearly matched predictions based on public opinion and exit polls, but some outcomes were unexpected. For example, the return of the conservative Liberal-National coalition in Australia surprised many, as Carol Johnson has noted, since most opinion polls suggested a Labor Party government would replace the Scott Morrison government in Canberra. In India, the Narendra Modi government was expected to return to power, but with fewer seats than the 2014 election, ‘owing to voter dissatisfaction over its patchy economic record’ ( Economist Intelligence Unit, 2019). However, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) increased its seats from 282 in 2014 to 303 in 2019 at the cost of regional parties, as Sanjay Kumar’s analysis explains. The mid-term election results in the Philippines confirmed President Rodrigo Duterte’s populist appeal to the voters, as Teehankee and Kasuya observe. The House of Councillors election results in Japan endorsed confidence in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government, even though the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its allies could not obtain the two thirds majority needed to initiate a constitutional revision, which is Abe’s dream project.

The analyses presented in this issue reveal some clear trends emerging from these elections in Asia. First, the ruling parties in each of these countries were returned to power or given endorsements through elections to local and national legislative bodies, producing continuity in government. In Thailand the Junta remains strong; as Siripan Sawasdee notes, the election was seen as a ritual to ‘transform a military junta into an elected government’. The junta established its own party, the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), and its head, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, now serves as Thailand’s prime minister. Philippine President Duterte appears to remain in a dominating position, going by the mid-term election results for various political offices at the local level as well as for the Senate, the nation’s upper house. In Japan, the results solidified Abe’s grip on government and a one-party dominant system, as Jain argues.

Second, in most cases the opposition forces seem frail and divided. In India, the world’s largest democracy, the Congress Party that ruled the country for most of the post-independence period could not perform much better than in 2014 (Jain, 2019). This was echoed in Asia’s oldest democracy, Japan, where Mulgan (2019) notes ‘Japanese voters have lost faith in the opposition parties and in the possibility of a change of government’.

Third, on the Asian political landscape, as in many other countries around the world, conservative nationalist and right-wing populist leaders dominate national politics, with significant consequences for national security. These leaders very often securitize migration and refugee issues (e.g. in Australia and India). Japan’s Prime Minister Abe wants to revise the constitution to make Japan a ‘normal nation’ by giving its self-defence force constitutional legitimacy. Duterte in the Philippines symbolizes right-wing populism.

In functioning democracies, opposition forces can challenge the government of the day. Yet analyses presented in this issue suggest change in government in India and Japan is not possible anytime soon. In India, although regional and opposition parties have gained some lost ground and Modi’s BJP lost its stronghold at the state level, the BJP seems rock solid at the national level. In Japan, the LDP faces several scandals and ministerial resignations, but Abe stands tall and some even talk of a fourth term in office beyond his already extended term ending in 2021. In Thailand, opposition forces have emerged stronger, but while the Junta remains in power the opposition will have real difficulty toppling the ruling party. In the Philippines, Duterte is only half-way through his six-year single term. He is likely to continue his strong-arm approach to governance over his remaining three years in office.

Here I mention some key points that emerge from the articles in this special issue. Each article offers detailed and rich analysis of the elections in the five Indo-Pacific countries under the lens in this issue. Individually and collectively, these analyses offer and inspire valuable insight among researchers, analysts and students who follow politics in these countries and in the region at large. I thank Professor Takashi Inoguchi and Dr Yuichi Kubota, the journal’s editor and assistant editor respectively, for accepting my proposal for a special issue on elections in Asia in 2019, and facilitating the review process and publication. I would also like to thank the contributors for their expert analysis and for their cooperation with the review process.