Early School Leaving and Transition to Adulthood: A Case Study of a Spanish Mediterranean Region

Abstract

In this study, the processes of transition to adulthood of early school leavers were analysed with special emphasis on the heterogeneity of situations that arise in this group. A quantitative methodology has been used including data collection via questionnaires with a total sample of 580 participants (306 women and 274 men) in the age range 26–28. Firstly, we have analysed the influence of educational level and gender in emancipation, employment, and parenting processes. Secondly, seven models of transition were identified based on the combination of main markers of transition to adulthood. Results showed the strong impact of educational level and gender on youth transitions, and the great vulnerability of youth with a low educational level specifically in employment and being these difficulties greater for women.

Keywords

early school leavers emerging adulthood transitions to adulthood educational level gender

Introduction

Economic and social changes have taken place over recent decades that have had a huge impact on the transition processes to adulthood. When compared to previous eras, these processes have clearly lengthened of due to: young people remaining in the education system for longer, as well as an unstable job market (Bradley & Devadason, 2008; Du Bois-Reymond & López-Blasco, 2004; Furlong et al., 2006; Wallace & Kovatcheva, 1998); a heterogeneity and complexity due to multiple factors coming together in its configuration (Furlong, 2009; Jones, 1995, 2002; Setersten et al., 2005) at a structural and social background, gender and cultural background level (Bradley & Van Hoof, 2005; Fenton & Dermott, 2006; Landberg et al., 2019); and institutional factors such as specific education, social and employment policies developed in each country (Arnett et al., 2014; Masdonati et al., 2021; Quintini & Martín, 2006; Settersten et al., 2005).

The influence of the context on the youth transitions is a major issue in relation to the subject that concerns us, highlighting some recent works focused on European regions (Cefalo et al., 2020; Scandurra et al., 2021a, 2021b). Authors have analysed various indicators focusing on the employment rate (according to age, educational level and period since the completion of initial training), the youth unemployment ratio and the NEET (neither in employment nor in education or training) rate, which reflect the high regional heterogeneity in the labour market participation of young people, mainly in Italy, France, Spain, Romania and Bulgaria. In this context, the construction of the youth labour market integration (YLMI) index (Cefalo et al., 2020; Scandurra et al., 2021b) represents a very important step forward in the analysis of inter-regional variability, which is essential for the development of European youth transition policies.

Furthermore, access to the labour market for low-qualified young people appears to be more exposed to cyclical fluctuations, with a significant decrease in employment participation from 2008 onwards (Scandurra et al., 2021a).

The traditional markers that define youth transitions to adulthood are completing education, entering in the labour market, becoming financially independent, getting married and parenting (Mortimer & Aronson, 2000; Settersen, 2007; Shanahan, 2000). The changes referred to above have led to authors such as Arnett (2000, 2006); Benson & Furstenberg, Jr. (2006); Mortimer & Aronson (2000); Panagakis (2015) and Shanahan (2000); also including an analysis of adult identity and self-perceived adulthood for young people, and the impact from different variables when constructing this identity. In this regard, the contributions of Aronson (2008) are particularly interesting, highlighting the need for a differential gender analysis in the construction of these identities and perceptions.

In Europe, there are many contributions to knowledge regarding youth transition to adulthood processes that analyse main markers (emancipation¹, employment and parenting) and underscore the influencing factors. This research notes the influence of the education level and gender on the processes of employment, emancipation and parenting amongst young people, as well as the heterogeneous nature of the transition models followed by young people with a low education level.

In this sense, several studies highlight the influence of educational attainment and gender on school-to-work transitions and on youth employment pathways. Masdonati et al. (2020) analysed, from a qualitative perspective, the employment pathways of low-qualified emerging adults in Switzerland. Authors underlined a higher prevalence of precariousness and job instability in youth pathways influencing the construction of future both personal and career plans. In turn, Struffolino & Borgna (2021) highlighted the greater impact from a lower education level on transitions to adulthood amongst women in Italy. Results suggested that the lack of job opportunities for female early school leavers may lead to accumulation processes in terms of hindrances and marginalisation.

Along these lines, the study by Sirniö et al. (2017) in Finland stands out, which monitored a sample of 23,915 young people from 16 to 37 years of age. The research identified six models of transition to adulthood, three of which were followed by youth with a low education level and were characterised by non-linear, erratic and low-income career pathways, albeit with differences in the processes of emancipation and parenting. The most common model for this group was the Express and Unsystematic (17%), mainly followed by women (80.8%) and characterised by early coupledom, unstable relationships with frequent break-ups and early motherhood. The Inactive model (7%) was mostly followed by emancipated men (65%) without a partner or children. Lastly, the Late home-leavers model (5%) was followed by those who were single without children and still living with their parents, 80% of whom were men. This study highlighted the heterogeneous nature of the pathways followed by young people with low education levels, as well as the influence that gender plays on them.

Vanttaja and Järvinen (2006) undertook longitudinal research analysing the pathways followed over 15 years by a group of youth between the ages of 31 and 33 who were outside the education system and the job market between the ages of 15 and 16. The study demonstrated the variety of transition models followed, with both erratic and successful pathways. A large proportion of young people have career pathways characterised by high levels of unemployment that double the rate for young people with higher qualifications. Only a third managed to find a job throughout the analysed period and usually in low-skilled occupations with medium to low-income levels. These career pathways are more erratic for youth with primary education, especially in the case of women. It has also been shown that this youth – mostly women – achieve emancipation at an earlier age, have higher maternity levels and a higher rate of single-parent families. Moreover, there is a group of young people who have redirected their pathways, with 50% continuing education throughout the analysed period and gaining employment, with 10% attaining a higher education level.

Transitions to Adulthood in Spain

Transitions to adulthood in Spain present the characteristics of the sub-protective transition regime typical of southern European countries (Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal). This model is characterised by an important role of the family, a precarious employment, a formally non-selective education system but with high Early Leaving from Education and Training (ELET)² rates until recently and an underdeveloped school-dependent vocational and training system with limited intervention by companies (Pohl & Walther, 2007).

In this context, the structural factors that define the differential situation in Spain – and which directly impact the complexity and lengthening of youth transitions to adulthood – are the specific characteristics of the educational system and the labour market, as well as the impact of education level and gender on residential emancipation, employment and parenting processes.

Educational Attainment of Spanish Population

Despite the fact that the Spanish educational system is considered a non-selective educational and training system, it is characterised by a strong polarisation of educational attainment, and high percentage of ELET (Scandurra et al., 2021a; Scandurra & Calero, 2020). In this sense, data published by EUROSTAT (2019b) for the 25–29 age range underscore a high percentage of young people with a low level of education³ (27.4% vs. 14.5% in the EU); a smaller number of young people with post-compulsory secondary education⁴ (24.1% vs. 45.5% in the EU) and a higher number of young people with tertiary qualifications⁵(48.5% vs. 40% in the EU).

In this sense, a recent study on the influence of family background on individual education and skills (both in the household and in the workplace) concludes that Spain is one of the countries where there is a strongest relationship between family background and individual educational attainment, leading to a strong intergenerational transmission of educational inequality (Scandurra & Calero, 2020).

In terms of ELET rates, although this indicator has largely fallen back since the start of the economic crisis to the present day −31.7% in 2008 vs. 16% in 2020- (Ministry of Education and Training, 2021), Spain continues to be one of the EU countries with the highest levels of ELET and has failed to attain the target set by the Europe 2020 Strategy for Spain of 15%. In this sense, Rambla and Scandurra (2021) have demonstrated the positive effect of the development of regional and local policies in reducing ELET. In the case of Spain, local authorities have had limited influence, especially in the management of the EU-sponsored Youth Guarantee Scheme. Moreover, education policies for the prevention of ELET have mainly focused on the development of a comprehensive education system, while the development of vocational training is still insufficient. At the same time, employment policies have not been sufficiently funded and have not offered a rapid response to the first waves of unemployment generated by the economic crisis that started in 2008.

The European strategic framework for education and training 2030 sets a target of reducing the ELET to 9% (European Union Council, 2021). Currently, the Spanish strategy to achieve this objective is based on the reform of the education system with the approval of a new education law (Organic Law 3/2020) which aims to reduce economic, social, cultural and territorial inequalities in education, to improve student’s competences and to develop school guidance and educational support programmes. At the same time, policies are being designed for the development and transformation of vocational training, offering a wider range of training courses adapted to the actual demands of the labour market (Ministry of Social Rights and 2030 Agenda, 2021).

In addition, there is a great inter-regional variability in ELET data (Rambla & Scandurra, 2021). Our research is conducted in one of the Spanish regions with the highest ELET rates – the Balearic Islands – a Mediterranean region with a tourism-based economy characterised by seasonality and an easy entry of low-skilled (mostly men) into the labour market.

Therefore, in 2008 in the Balearic Islands the ELET rate was at 42.5% and at 24.4% in 2019, which means a decrease of 43%, a smaller reduction compared to the national average of 45.5%. In addition, in 2010, 2011 and 2012 this rate stood at 36.5%; 29.7% and 28.9%, respectively, rates much higher than those of the European Union average which stood at 13.9%, 13.4% and 12.7% in these years (Ministry of Education and Vocational Training, 2019).

Although the data show a higher prevalence of ELET in men – 21.4% in Spain and 28.1% in the Balearics – than for women – 13% in Spain and 20.3% in the Balearics (Ministry of Education and Vocational Training, 2019) – the impact on the life course of young women is clearly worse, as young women face greater difficulties in the process of transition to adulthood and experience major constraints in accessing employment, higher levels of unemployment and an earlier residential emancipation and motherhood (Iannelli & Smith 2008; Struffolino & Borgna 2021) with subsequent increased dedication to domestic and care work (Quintana-Murci et al., 2020; Rentería et al., 2016) leading women with a low education level to situations of greater invisibility and vulnerability (Esping-Andersen, 2008; Rentería et al., 2016; Salvà-Mut et al., 2016). This situation is due to structural factors, such as the persistence of gender inequalities in formally egalitarian societies and specifically to a greater presence of the sexual division of work among young women with low levels of education. At the same time, there is a lack of educational, social, equality and employment policies aimed specifically at this group (Quintana-Murci et al., 2020; Salvà-Mut et al., 2016).

A Precarious and Unstable Labour Market

Spain has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in Europe. Specifically, for the 25 to 29 age range, this rate reached its apex in 2013 of 33.3% (14.6% in EU-28 countries) and affected all education levels⁶: 42.5% (ISCED 0–2), 31.8% (ISCED 3–4) and 23.7% (ISCED-5–8). In 2019, the rate stood at 27.7%, 18.9% and 14.4%, respectively. Youth unemployment affects more women, and especially those with a low education level (EUROSTAT, 2019c).

If we look at the evolution of youth unemployment in this same age range over the 2013–2019 period, there is a 14.3-point decline in the unemployed youth population in Spain (14.8 ISCED 0–1, 12.9 ISCED 3–4 and 9.3 ISCED 5–8). By analysing the data by gender and taking into account education levels, we can see a 15.6% decline for unemployed male youth compared to 12.9% for female unemployment in the analysed age range. In turn, unemployment amongst young women with a low education level (ISCED 0–2) saw a 12.7 point decrease, whilst it dropped nearly 16 points for men with the same education level. These data show that it is easier for men with a low education level to join the job market in Spain than women, pointing to a situation of particular vulnerability for women (EUROSTAT, 2019c).

In this complex scenario, studies in Spain on the processes underlying the transition to adulthood note the impact of education level and gender on career pathways for young people. In this sense, we should highlight the work done by Casal et al. (2006), Serracant (2012, 2015) and Verd et al. (2019) that shows the repercussions of low qualifications on erratic unstable career pathways characterised by alternating periods of employment and unemployment, a higher rate of long-term unemployment and undertaking unskilled precarious occupations at lower pay – all situations that have a greater impact on women.

Another indicator of labour precariousness is involuntary part-time employment. If we take into account the 25–29 age range from the start of the crisis to today, the rate has increased and stood at 45.1% in 2008 and 65.2% in 2019 (35.9% and 32.3%, respectively, in EU countries). In 2019, the main reasons for Spanish youth engaging in involuntary part-time employment were either ‘Couldn’t find a full-time job’ (65.2% vs 32.3% in the EU) or ‘In education or training’ (16.4% vs 23% in the EU). If we take gender into account, Spanish women provide more reasons for finding themselves in this situation than men: ‘Couldn’t find a full-time job’ (65.0%), ‘Looking after children’ (6.0%), ‘Family responsibilities’ (2.0%) and ‘In education and training’ (14.8%) (EUROSTAT, 2019d).

Emancipation and Parenting Processes

Youth transitions in Spain present distinguishing features characterised by late emancipation, where the average age of leaving parental home is 29.5 years in comparison to 26 in EU countries (EUROSTAT, 2019a). In a comparative study of youth emancipation models in four countries (France, Canada, United Kingdom and Spain), the Spanish example differs from the rest. A ‘wait’ model prevails amongst young Spaniards that comprises delaying emancipation until they fulfil the necessary conditions to start a new life for themselves: stable employment, marriage or living in a couple and buying a home (Van del Velde, 2008).

The higher rate of young people remaining in parental home in Spain has two main causes. On the one hand, specific structural factors such as the organisation and development of educational system, and a turbulent labour market characterised by precarity and instability. On the other, cultural factors inherent to the family-oriented society of southern Europe, especially in Mediterranean regions. In this regard, authors such as Esping-Andersen (1999, 2008), Moreno-Mínguez (2012), Serracant (2015) and Van del Velde (2008) define the specific features of family-oriented societies, understood as a type of negotiated family solidarity between parents and children for the latter to remain in the family home in response to a precarious unfavourable economic context, and which underscores generational interdependence and slows the independence and social role of young people.

From the start of the economic crisis, this model of transition was strengthened due to the scant availability and precarious nature of employment, the high price of and difficult access to housing (both in the purchase and rental markets) and the lack of policies focused on enabling housing access for young people, all of which lead to lengthening transitions. In this sense, only 18.5% of young people (16–29 years old) are emancipated in Spain; being this rate higher for those with lower levels of education and clearly higher for women across all levels of education (Spanish Youth Council, 2019).

In turn, there is an inter-regional variability in Spain with regard to transition to adulthood processes. Studies such as Vitali (2010) highlight later emancipation for young people in northern Spanish regions, whereas those from the south and Mediterranean areas are more likely to experience earlier emancipation. A possible explanation for this is the tourism-based economy in these, which for many years has brought young people into the labour market, even those with low education levels. This factor enables young people to become economically independent, access to consumer goods and social standing within a short timeframe (Adame & Salvà, 2010).

The impact of the level of education on residential emancipation and parenting processes has been widely demonstrated in many research studies. Along these lines, young people with lower qualifications tend to experience an earlier emancipation process, more so amongst women, which is linked to early motherhood (Ballesteros et al., 2012; Davia & Legazpe, 2014; Delgado et al., 2009; Quintana-Murci et al., 2020).

In this sense, Moreno-Mínguez (2012, 2018) analysed youth emancipation processes in Spain from a gender perspective, looking at influence variables such as employment, education level, parenting and family support. The conclusions of the study highlighted the different emancipation models of women and men, where processes were more complex for women. Young Spanish women leave the family home before men and at a younger age than young European women. A possible answer to this phenomenon is that in Spain, gender differences in the transition to adulthood are linked to cultural models of familialism and the still persistence of the male breadwinner model that still permeates gender family relations (Moreno-Mínguez, 2012; Scandurra & Calero, 2020). This different pattern would explain the earlier emancipation age for women in a country such as Spain that is characterised by late residential emancipation processes, and in an adverse economic, labour and family context.

In turn, Spain is one of the EU countries with the lowest birth and fertility rates. The 2018 fertility survey (National Institute of Statistics [INE], 2018) highlighted that over 79% of women between the ages of 25–29 were not yet mothers. In addition to the macrostructural variables above, there are others such as education level and nationality that influence the age of motherhood. Firstly, as women’s education level rises, motherhood is delayed, and the lower the education level, the earlier motherhood occurs. In turn, the average age of motherhood stands at over 31 for Spanish citizens and at 28 for women holding overseas nationality. With regard to the fertility indicator, we can see that the number of children per woman stood at 1.31 in 2018 – a number that rises for women with lower education levels and a weaker link to paid work (INE, 2018).

The low birthrate in Spain can be explained by the high cost of motherhood both on the family budget and the indirect opportunity cost of being a mother (the impact of maternity throughout the women’s lives) in a scenario characterised by a lack of work–life balance policies (Esping-Andersen, 2008) and a scarce development of public coverage of childcare services (Rentería et al., 2016).

Whilst all previous research notes the impact of low education levels on career and personal pathways amongst young people, there is a lack of studies that specifically analyse the ESL transitions to adulthood – a broad group with specific characteristics that should be subject to detailed analysis. In the same vein, inter-regional variability in Spain makes it necessary to thoroughly analyse these processes in regions with the highest ELET rates, such as the Balearic Islands, in order to develop education, labour and social policies that are able to respond to the heterogeneous nature and specific needs of this collective.

The Present Study

This article used a quantitative approach to analyse the transition to adulthood of a group of young people who left the education system early and who, at the time the research was conducted, were aged between 26 and 28 years, whilst taking into account the main markers of transition to adulthood: emancipation, employment and parenting, in comparison to young people in the same age range with higher education levels. The questions we wish to answer are: What are the main models of transition to adulthood followed by early school leavers? Are there differences with regard to those with higher levels of education? Which markers of transition to adulthood are most influenced by educational attainment and gender? In Early School Leavers group, are there differences related to gender, educational level or place of birth?

Our study represents an important contribution to the literature as it provides new data on the impact of the 2008 crisis on the ESL transitions to adulthood and identifies the main patterns followed by this group. In addition, the analysis performed has allowed us to examine in depth the heterogeneity of these transitions – often considered from an over-homogenising perspective, and to make an approximation to the determining factors.

Moreover, the research has been carried out in a period of time characterised by a transition from an era of economic growth and a large offer of unskilled jobs for young people, and an increase in public policies investment to another era characterised by a strong economic crisis and cutbacks in public policies that strongly affected young people with low educational level. Especifically, this research has been developed in the Balearic Islands, a Spanish region characterised by high levels of ELET, and a great impact of the economic crisis on youth. In this sense, it makes a clear contribution to the strategic objective of reducing ELET rates.

Materials and Methods

The period studied is of approximately 10 years, which covers the span from the year the participant finished compulsory education (2000–2001) to the time the information was gathered (2010–2012).

Data collection was conducted using a home interview via a questionnaire, which covered the following areas: socio-demographic characteristics, current situation, education, employment and physical and psychological well-being. Based on the contributions from Bertrand (2005); INE (2007), López et al. (2008), United States Department of Labour (n.d.), European Commission (n.d.) and Statistics Canada (n.d.), the research team created and validated a questionnaire and before using it, a pilot test was conducted with 30 students from the University of the Balearic Islands. It was applied to a representative sample from the city of Palma de Mallorca, taking into account gender and type of residential neighbourhood. The sample error for the entire sample was 3.98% with an estimated confidence level of 95%, under the least favourable condition of p=q=0.5.

The study was conducted in an urban environment (Palma, Balearic Islands, Spain): one of the largest municipalities in Spain (416.065 inhabitants) where 36.2% of the population of the Balearic Islands is concentrated (Balearic Islands Institute of Statistics, 2019). Like Spain as a whole, the region suffered major impacts from the economic crisis, as well as a youth unemployment rate above the European average, alongside one of the highest ELET rates in Spain. The data collection period ran from April 2011 to June 2012.

The total sample comprised 580 participants aged 26–28 years (306 women and 274 men). This research is focused on the ESL population and differentiates between two sub-groups according to the highest qualification attained at the time of data collection: compulsory secondary education (ISCED 2), and those who did not finish compulsory secondary education (ISCED 0–1). This represents a total of 215 participants, 150 (67 women and 83 men) in ISCED 2 group (26.18% of the sample) and 65 (26 women and 39 men) in ISCED 0–1 (11.34% of the sample).

The percentage of ESL in the sample is 37%, which is representative of the ESL population in the Balearic Islands of 36.5% in 2010 (INE, 2011) when the research was initiated.

In order to respond to the research questions, the characteristics of transition to adulthood markers and their link to education level were firstly analysed. More specifically, the characteristics of emancipation, employment and parenting were studied for the young ESL compared to those with higher qualifications. Within the ESL group, differences and similarities were analysed in four sub-groups based on education level (ISCED 0–1 or ISCED 2) and gender (man or woman). In all instances, a t-test for the contrast of means was performed in order to verify whether the observed differences were significant or not.

Secondly, different models of transition to adulthood were identified. In this sense and in coherence with the literature review, each model was defined according to the different combinations of the three main markers of transition to adulthood⁷: emancipation, parenting and employment. As a result, we create the following models: (1) emancipation with children and in employment (n = 45 individuals); (2) emancipation with children (n = 43); (3) emancipation with employment (n = 207); (4) emancipation (n = 63); (5) children (n = 10); (6) employed (n = 165); and (7) no marker (n = 74). Furthermore, each model was analysed with regard to education level and gender, applying a statistical analysis for a contrast of differences.

Finally, we have analysed the main determining factors for each model through the probit model where the dependent variable is dichotomous with the value 1 when belonging to a specific transition into adulthood model and 0 when not belonging to the model. In addition to controlling for gender and education level, the health status and place of birth are included as control variables. Furthermore, the probit model allows us to analyse to what extent the correlations between membership in a certain model and the variables gender and educational level remain robust, or new relationships appear, once other variable such as health, addictions or place of birth are considered and all of them are analysed together as possible determining factors of each model.

Results

The influence of educational level and gender in emancipation, employment and parenting

Table 1 indicates the main characteristics of transition to adulthood markers (residential emancipation, participation in employment and parenting) by level of education and gender.

Table 1.

Transition to adulthood markers by level of education and gender.

	ISCED 0–1	M	F	ISCED 2	M	F	ISCED 0-1–2	M	F	ISCED 3–8	M	F
Emancipated	59.38%	47.37%^C	76.92%^C	65.10%	56.63%^C	75.76%^C	63.38%	53.72%^C	76.09%^C	61.26%	46.36%^C	71.83%^C
Married	16.92%	5.13%^C	34.62%^C	13.33%	6.02%^C	22.39%^C	14.42%^A	5.74%^C	25.81%^C	8.76%^A	3.94%^C	12.20%^C
Employment	38.46%^B	48.72%^C	23.08%^C	64.67%^B	71.08%^C	56.72%^C	56.74% ^A	63.93%^C	47.31%^C	73.97% ^A	73.68%	74.17%
Wage	1100.66	1137.27	1000.00	1098.79	1163.78	995.71	1099.10 A	1158.66	996.23	1202.01 A	1251.35	1171.56
Perm. Contract	56.00%	57.89%	50.00%	56.70%	59.32%	52.63%	56.55%	58.97%	52.27%	55.18%	54.46%	55.69%
Full-time	84.00%	100.00%C	33.33%C	83.50%	88.13%	76.31%	83.60%A	91.02%C	70.45%C	74.44%A	80.35%C	70.25%C
Wage/hour	29.11	27.85	32.55	30.19	31.12	28.81	30.01 A	30.46	29.26	35.53 A	34.92	35.90
Parenting	33.85%^B	17.95%^C	57.69%^C	22.00%^B	15.66%^C	29.85%^C	25.58%^A	16.39%^C	37.63%^C	11.78%^A	5.92%^C	15.96%^C

Note: Superscript A highlights the significant differences between ESL (ISCED 0-1-2) and young people with a higher education level for each of the analysed characteristics. Superscript B signals the significant differences between the ISCED 0–1 and ISCED 2 groups. Finally, superscript C spotlights the significant differences between men and women in the same education sub-group.

The residential emancipation of young ESL is slightly higher than for those with more qualifications in general (63.38% ESL vs. 61.26%). Nonetheless, there are only significant differences between men and women in each of the analysed education levels, with a higher emancipation level for women than for men across all education levels. The greatest differences are seen in the group ISCED 0–1, 76.92% for women vs. 47.37% for men, 29.55 percentage points (pp.) difference. The gender difference in the group ISCED 2 is 19.13 pp. In turn, for the non-ESL group (ISCED 3–8), the emancipation gender difference is 25.47 pp.

With regard to marriage there are significant differences between the ESL and those with a higher education level, and between women and men across all education levels; meanwhile, these differences are not observed between the two ESL sub-groups. The percentage of marriages in the ESL group is higher than for those with higher education levels in general (14.42% ESL vs. 8.76%), and especially amongst women in both collectives (25.81% in women ESL vs. 12.20%). The percentage of married women is higher than married men across all the analysed levels. Once again, the greatest differences are seen in the group ISCED 0–1, 34.62% for women vs. 5.13% for men, 29.49 pp. difference. The gender difference in the ISCED 2 group is 16.37 pp. Although also significant, the difference for the non-ESL group (ISCED 3–8) is only 8.26 pp. A more detailed analysis shows that the greatest differences based on education level are found amongst women (22.42 points difference for those with no qualifications and those with upper secondary or tertiary studies; whilst the difference in men does not even reach two points).

In terms of employment, there is a significantly lower rate for the ESL compared to those with higher qualifications (56.74% ESL vs. 73.97%). There are also significant differences between the percentage of workers without compulsory secondary education and those with compulsory secondary education (38.46% ISCED 0–1 vs. 64.67% ISCED 2). That is, the gap between ESL (ISCED 0–1 and ISCED 2) shows a difference of 26.21 pp., higher than the gap between ESL and those with higher qualifications (17.23 pp.). By gender, it can be seen that the employment of young female ESL is significantly below that for men, whilst the differences disappear for those with higher studies (ISCED 3–8). It can also be observed that the percentage of women in employment compared to men shows a major difference as qualification levels get lower. This is especially clear for ISCED 0–1, since the percentage of females in employment in this group (23.08%) fails to attain even half that for males (48.72%), with the gap standing at 25.64 pp. In the case of ISCED 2 group, although the difference drops slightly, it is still 14.36 pp. (56.72% for women vs. 71.08% for men). In the case of ISCED 3–8, the gap inverts, although the difference ceases to be significant at under 1 pp.

With regard to the monthly wage for youth in employment, the average is 1174 euro, with significant differences depending on the education level attained. In this sense, the average wage for employed youth with ISCED 3–8 is 1202 euro, though this declines to 1.099,10 euro for ESL (ISCED 0-1-2). Although the wages are always higher for men than for women, the gap is not statistically significant at any educational level. In any case, the difference in wages for young ESL and for those with more qualifications is higher among women (996.23 ESL vs. 1.171,56) than among men (1.158,66 ESL vs. 1.251,35).

In terms of job conditions beyond wage level, there seems to be no clear pattern between level of education and contract type for those who work, since the percentage of youth with ISCED 0-1-2 that have a permanent contract stands at 56.55% and 55.18% for ISCED 3–8 group. The differences are not significant either for education level or for gender.

When looking at the type of working day, on average, young people work full-time in 77.29% of instances. Nevertheless, this percentage increases to 84% for ISCED 0–1 and to 83.50% for ISCED 2, compared to 74.44% for ISCED 3–8 group – a significantly lower figure. Moreover, there are statistically significant differences in these collectives when differentiating for gender. In this way, for young people who did not finish compulsory secondary education and are in employment, 100% of the males work full-time; however, only 33.33% of the females do so, with the difference between them standing above 66 percentage points. In turn, for those young with ISCED 3–8, the difference narrows to 10.1 pp. (80.35% of men vs. 70.25% of women).

The hourly wage analysis is especially interesting since it clearly shows that the significant wage differences between ESL and young people with higher qualifications remain in place after accounting for the longer working day of the former. In this sense, the hourly wage for ESL is 30.01 euro whilst that for ISCED 3–8 group is 35.53 euro. Once again, these differences are higher for women (29.26 women ESL vs. 35.90) than for men (30.46 men ESL vs. 34.92).

The differences between the ESL and those with higher qualifications are globally significant with regard to parenting (25.58% ESL vs. 11.78% ISCED 3–8) and by gender (16.39% for men vs. 37.63% for women in the ESL group, and 5.92% vs. 15.96% for women, for those who have higher qualifications). The global percentage rises to 33.85% for young people ISCED 0–1. A more detailed analysis shows huge differences with regard to parenting by education level amongst women (57.69% in ISCED 0–1, 29.85% in ISCED 2 and 15.96% in ISCED 3–8). The same trend is observed in men, albeit with narrower differences.

An Approximation to Models of Transition to Adulthood

The performed analysis has enabled seven models that matched different combinations in terms of achieving the main markers of transition to adulthood.

We have analysed the main characteristics of each model. First, through a descriptive approach, that analyzes the influence of educational level and gender variables through the contrast of differences (see Table 2).

Table 2.

Models of transition to adulthood.

	ISCED 0–1	M	F	ISCED 2	M	F	ISCED 0-1-2	M	F	ISCED 3–8	M	F
Model 1. Emancipation with children and in employment (n = 45)	7.69%	10.26%	3.85%	12.00%	10.84%	13.43%	10.70%^A	10.66%	10.75%	6.03%^A	3.95%	7.51%
Model 2. Emancipation with children and unemployed (n = 43)	23.07%^B	7.69%^C	46.15%^C	7.33%^B	1.20%^C	14.92%^C	12.09%^A	3.27%^C	23.65%^C	4.65%^A	1.31%^C	7.04%^C
Model 3. Emancipation in employment and without children (n = 207)	16.92%^B	17,94%	15,38%	32.00%^B	36,14%	26,86%	27.44%^A	30,32%	23,65%	40.54%^A	29.60%^C	48.35%^C
Model 4. Emancipation (no children and unemployed) (n = 63)	10.77%	10.26%	11.54%	13.33%	8.43%^C	19.40%^C	12.56%	9.02%^C	17.20%^C	9.86%	11.18%	8.92%
Model 5. Children (without emancipation and unemployed (n = 10)	3.06%	0.00%	7.69%	2.67%	3.61%	1.49%	2.79%^A	2.46%	3.23%	0.27%^A	0.00%	0.47%
Model 6. Employed (without emancipation and without children) (n = 135)	13.85%	20.51%^C	3.85%^C	20.00%	24.10%	14.93%	18.14%^A	22.95%^C	11.83%^C	26.30%^A	38.82%^C	17.37%^C
Model 7. No marker (without emancipation, without children and unemployed) (n = 74)	23.08%^B	30.77%^C	11.54%^C	12.00%^B	15.66%	7.46%	15.35%	20.49%^C	8.60%^C	11.23%	13.82%	9.39%

Note. Superscript A highlights the significant differences between ESL (ISCED 0-1-2) and young people with a higher education level for each of the analysed characteristics. Superscript B signals the significant differences between the ISCED 0–1 and ISCED 2 groups. Finally, superscript C spotlights the significant differences between men and women in the same education sub-group.

Secondly, through a probit model for each model that analyzes the determining factors all together. This analysis incorporates, in addition to educational level and gender, other explanatory variables such as health status, addictions and place of origin. This allows establishing a personal profile consistent with each model of transition to adulthood (see Table 3).

Table 3.

Determining factors of models of transition to adulthood.

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7
Women	0.1599	1.0436^***	0.2447^**	0.0902	0.2951	−0.6060^***	−0.3478^**
ISCED 0–1	0.1024	1.1732^***	−0.6085^***	−0.0532	0.8841^**	−0.5315^**	0.3411^*
ISCED 2	0.3451^**	0.3459	−0.1476	0.1103	0.8508^***	−0.2224	−0.0637
Bad health	−0.5387^*	0.2584	−0.2055	−0.2231	0.1238	0.1010	0.4878^***
Addictions	0.1450	−0.4323	−0.2601^*	0.5157^***	0.3692	−0.0952	0.0834
Immigrant	0.4145^***	0.4709^***	−0.0340	0.1828	0.4769	−0.6018^***	−0.1407
Pseudo R²	5.07%^***	20.39%^***	3.43%^***	3.14%^**	13.91%^***	7.97%^***	4.71%^***
Number of observations	580	580	580	580	580	580	580

Note: ***Significant to 1%, ** significant to 5%, * significant to 10%

A statistical analysis for contrast of differences shows that five models highlight significant differences between the ESL group and those with higher qualifications. The ESL shows a higher percentage for the model 1 (emancipated, with children and employed), model 2 (emancipated with children and unemployed) and model 5 (children, unemployed and no emancipation). Meanwhile, the model 3 (emancipated and in employment and without children) as well the model 6 (in employment, non-emancipated and without children) show a significantly lower percentage.

It is also worth mentioning that those who did not finish compulsory secondary education in the ESL group have a high differential weighting in two instances: model 2 (emancipated, unemployed and with children – here, mainly women – ) and model 7 (those who are unemployed, do not have children and are not emancipated – mainly men) (see Table 2).

The determining factors for each model through a probit analysis allows analysing to what extent the correlations shown in the contrast of differences remain robust once health, addictions and place of birth are added to gender and educational level as explanatory variables of each transition to adulthood model (see Table 3).

In the following, the main characteristics of each of the models identified on the basis of the results obtained in the statistical analyses described in the previous sections are presented (see Table 2 and 3):

Model 1: This group fulfils the transition markers to the greatest extent (emancipated, with children and employed). Only a very low percentage of young people fulfil the three markers, n= 45 individuals (10.70% for ESL and 6.03% for those with higher qualifications). The contrast of differences analysis shows a significant incidence of ESL in this group.

Furthermore, the results of the probit analysis show that having compulsory secondary education, good health and being an immigrant are determining factors of belonging to this group. Thus, the personal profile would be someone with compulsory secondary education, an immigrant and in good health, regardless of the gender.

Model 2: The incidence rate for emancipated individuals with children and unemployed is significantly higher in ESL (12.09%) than in the group with higher qualifications (4.65%), being a total of n=43 individuals. According to the descriptive analysis, within the ESL group, it is much higher amongst those who did not finish schooling (23.07%) than amongst those who passed compulsory secondary education (7.33%). For all education levels, the incidence in this model for women is significantly higher than for men, standing at 46.15% for ISCED 0–1 emancipated women with children.

The probit analysis shows a positive relationship between not finishing compulsory secondary education, being a woman and an immigrant and belonging to this group. Thus, the profile would be a female immigrant without qualifications.

Model 3: This group comprises youth who are emancipated, employed and without children and is the largest of the total sample (n=207). Unlike the previous models, according to the contrast of differences analysis, there are more young people amongst those with ISCED 3–8 (40.54%) in this situation than amongst the ESL group (27.44%). The percentage of youth in this situation is lower amongst the ESL group who did not finish compulsory secondary education (16.92%) than amongst those who did (32%). Moreover, there are no significant differences between men and women in the ESL group, but there are for young people with a higher level of education than compulsory studies (ISCED 3–8), with a higher percentage of women than men in these circumstances (48.35% vs. 29.60%).

The probit results underscore a positive link for being a women and a negative one for not finishing compulsory secondary education and having addiction problems. Thus, the profile fits with being a women with compulsory secondary education or higher and not having any addiction problems.

Model 4: Emancipated, without children and unemployed group shows no statistically significant differences linked to the level of education, although it is higher amongst ESL than those with higher qualifications (12.56% vs. 9.86%), and for those with compulsory secondary education compared to those without any qualifications (13.33% vs. 10.77%). A gender analysis shows that women in ESL group find themselves in this situation to a greater degree; this is especially relevant for those with compulsory secondary education (19.40% vs. 8.43% for men). There are no significant differences between genders for the other qualification levels. The total dimension of this group is n = 63.

According to the probit analysis, and in coherence with the contrast of differences analysis, results highlight that gender and level of education are not significant variables. However, a positive link for addictions can be observed.

Model 5: Having children (non-emancipated and unemployed) is a minority occurrence (n = 10), and mainly affects young ESL (2.79%) compared to only 0.27% of young people with higher qualifications. The low frequency of this model offers no significant differences for gender, although it is more common in women who did not finish compulsory education (7.69%).

The probit analysis results underscore that being an ESL is the only significant and strong determinant for this profile. Gender, place of birth and health status are not significant.

Model 6: Being employed (non-emancipated without children), with n = 135, is more common amongst those with upper secondary or tertiary studies than amongst the ESL group (26.30% vs. 18.14%), being these differences significatives. Within the ESL group, it is more common amongst those who have compulsory secondary than those who have no qualifications (20% vs. 13.85%). The percentage of men in this situation is much higher across all levels, up to five times higher than for women in ISCED 0–1 (20.51% vs. 3.85%, 16 pp. difference), and more than double for young people in ISCED 3–8 group (17.37% for women vs. 38.82% for men, a 21.45 pp. difference). Therefore, the differences between men and women are significant for the ESL – and among them for those with no diplomas – and also for those with higher qualification (ISCED 3–8).

According to the probit analysis, and in coherence with the contrast of differences analysis, results show a negative link for being female and not finishing compulsory secondary education, moreover, being inmigrant also shows a negative and significant effect. Thus, this profile best matches being a man, having been born in the Balearics and having compulsory secondary education or higher.

Model 7: Youth who are not emancipated, without children and unemployed are n = 74 in the total sample. This group represents 15.35% of the ESL group and 11.23% of those with ISCED 3–8, although the significant differences are found within the ESL group, since the rate for those without qualifications is double that of those with compulsory secondary education (23.08% vs. 12%). A gender analysis shows that there are more men in this situation than women across all education levels, although the only significant differences can be found between men and women without qualifications: 30.77% vs. 11.54%, respectively.

The probit analysis results highlight a positive link for not finishing compulsory secondary education and having health problems. Also shows a negative and significant sign of being a women, whilst the country of origin is non-significant. This profile matches men in bad health who did not finish compulsory secondary education.

Discussion

This article analyzes the transition to adulthood of early school leavers, aged 26–28, in a period of approximately 10 years, characterised for the impact of the economic crisis started in 2008. The analysis is based on the main markers of transition to adulthood (emancipation, employment and parenting) as well as the comparison between educational level and gender. Furthermore, this research was carried out in the Spanish context (Balearic Islands), characterised by high levels of ELET, and a high impact of the economic crisis on youth.

The study carried out has allowed us to identify the specific characteristics of ESL transitions to adulthood from a double perspective. Firstly, each of the main markers considered was analysed separately. Afterwards, and according to the combinations of the different markers, seven models of transition to adulthood have been identified. In addition, the differentiated analysis by educational level and gender within the ESL group has allowed us to deepen our understanding of the enormous heterogeneity within this group and to develop an approximation to the determining factors. The results obtained on emancipation are consistent with the characteristics of the Spanish model of late residential emancipation, typical of the sub-protective transition regime (Esping-Andersen, 1999; 2008; Moreno-Mínguez, 2012; Pohl & Walther, 2007; Serracant, 2012; 2015; Van del Velde, 2008). This model has been reinforced by an increase in unemployment since the 2008 crisis, which mainly affects young people with a lower level of education (EUROSTAT, 2019c). In this sense, more than four out of ten young ESL are unemployed and, in the group without any qualifications, approximately half of men and three out of four women are unemployed.

The high unemployment rates affecting ESL may have influenced the fact that the percentage of ESL who are emancipated is not significantly higher than those with a higher level of education, when this group has traditionally been characterised by leaving parental home at an early age (Spanish Youth Council, 2019), and even more in a region based on tourism economy (Adame & Salvà, 2010; Vitali, 2010).

The gender analysis shows significant differences in the markers considered. Women of all educational levels are emancipated, married and have children to a greater extent than men with the same level of education. These results are consistent with those of other studies conducted in the Spanish context (Ballesteros et al., 2012; Delgado et al., 2009; Quintana-Murci et al., 2020). In contrast, the employment rate is significantly lower in women, except in the group with post-compulsory studies, a trend also reflected in Salvà-Mut et al. (2016).

As far as emancipation is concerned, approximately three out of four women are residentially emancipated, with no major differences according to educational level. On the contrary, significant differences are observed between women and men with the same level of education, being observed the highest differences in the group without studies and in the group with post-compulsory education. In the first case, we would be faced with the classic model of residential emancipation of young Spanish women who leave their family home with the aim of forming their own family, regardless of whether they have job stability (Davia & Legazpe, 2014; Moreno-Mínguez, 2012, 2018). Thus, in women without studies group, emancipation would be associated with motherhood, since almost six out of ten women without studies are mothers, while less than one in four has a job. In the group with post-compulsory education, the high employment rates and the percentage of those with children point to an emancipation model with a greater weight of employment.

With regard to working conditions, it should be noted that ESL work longer hours and have lower wages compared to the group of young people with a higher level of education. The gender analysis reveals significant differences between men and women in terms of working time. At all educational levels women work less full time, with the greatest differences being observed in the group without studies where only one in three women work full time. Although the dominant discourse accentuates the role of family care in the fact that women work less full-time than men, in the Spanish context, part-time work in general and in women in particular occurs mainly because they cannot find a full-time job (EUROSTAT, 2019d).

From the combination of the markers studied, seven models of transition to adulthood have been identified. Firstly, there is a great heterogeneity in the models of transition to adulthood of young ESL. In this group, the dominant model (27.44%) is the model 3 (emancipated with employment and without children), and the least frequent (2.79%) is the 5 (unemancipated with children and unemployed). In the group with post-compulsory education, the dominant and the least frequent models are the same, but the situation is more polarised, with a higher weight of the model 3 (40.54%) and a very low weight of the model 5 (0.27%) compared to the ESL group.

Of the seven models founded, five are clearly influenced by educational level. In this way, ESL is positively associated with those models that include parenting and negatively with those that include employment, results which correspond to the non-linear and erratic labour trajectories in young people with low educational level identified in other previous studies (Casal et al., 2006; Masdonati et al., 2020; Serracant, 2012; 2015; Sirniö et al., 2017; Vanttaja & Järvinen, 2006; Verd et al., 2019). The negative association of ESL with the models that include employment is strongly influenced by the impact of the context of the crisis as we observed before.

The model with the three markers (emancipation, employment and parenting) is also associated with the ESL group, although it affects only one in ten of these young people. This group is mainly made up of young people with early emancipation who, when the crisis broke out, already had a certain degree of stability in residential emancipation, workplaces and families. In short, this group would be formed by those young people who left school at a time of easy access to unskilled employment, a dynamic characteristic of Mediterranean areas with a predominance of the tourist economy (Adame & Salvà, 2010; Vitali, 2010).

The gender analysis allows us to observe that in women without studies group, the model 2, characterised by residential emancipation with children and without employment clearly dominates (affecting almost one out of every two) and that this situation is closely linked to immigration. The positive relationship between ESL women and the characteristics of this emancipation model, which in turn is associated with enormous vulnerability and lack of autonomy (Salvà-Mut et al., 2016), is the strongest of all those analysed in the present research. These findings reinforce the results obtained in other studies regarding the much more accentuated negative impact on women’s life course of the lack of studies (Esping-Andersen, 2008; Iannelli & Smith 2008; Salvà-Mut et al., 2016; Struffolino & Borgna, 2021; Vanttaja & Järvinen, 2006). In contrast, the most frequent pattern among women with ISCED 3–8 (almost the 50%) is characterised by emancipation, in employment and without children (model 3). These data reflect the strong polarisation of the living conditions of Spanish women, especially in contexts with a strong presence of immigrant population attracted by employment opportunities in the service sector in periods of economic expansion, such as the Balearic Islands.

In men without studies group the most frequent model is the one with none of the markers (non-emancipated without children and unemployed-model 7), affecting three out of ten, a situation that is also associated with poor health.

The strong impact of educational level and gender on youth transitions to adulthood, and therefore on the life course, reinforces the need for structural changes in the political, social and economic spheres as well as the urgence of a gender perspective in these policies. The guarantee of the real right to education, the gradual replacement of employment by new forms of social cohesion and the priority of the general interest of the citizenship are essential conditions for minimising unstable and erratic transitions to adulthood and for ensuring that these barriers do not prevent broad sectors of the population from exercising their citizenship rights.

Finally, although the sample has some limitations because it focuses on a single Spanish region, the obtained results allowed us to develop an in-depth understanding of the contextual factors and their influence on ESL youth transitions to adulthood. This approach is situated in the perspective of promoting regional studies as a basis for the development of European policies (Cefalo et al., 2020; Scandurra et al., 2021a, 2021b). Future research could be developed from a comparative perspective between European regions.

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This article is part of the project ‘Trajectories from secondary education into employment: a biographical perspective’ (EDU2009-13312), funded under the National Plan R+D+I (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Government of Spain). The authors are members of the Education and Citizenship Research Group (University of the Balearic Islands) and it is considered a Competitive Research Group and it is sponsored by part of the Autonomous Community of the Balearic Islands, through the General Directorate for Research, Technological Development an Innovation (Ministry of Innovation, Interior and Justice) and co-financed by FEDER funds.

Open Practices

Data and materials for this study have not been made publicly available. The design and analysis plans were not preregistered.

ORCID iDs

Francesca Salvà-Mut

María Tugores-Ques

Elena Quintana-Murci

Notes

Author Biographies

Francesca Salvà-Mut, PhD in Educational Sciences and Associate Professor in the Department of Applied Pedagogy and Educational Psychology at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB). She has been a visiting researcher at several international centres. Her main line of research is the educational and work transitions of early school leavers. She has published in several international journals and has directed and participated in international and national research projects on early school leaving, second chance education, vocational education and training, training and work pathways and gender.

María Tugores-Ques, PhD in Economics and Associate Professor in the Department of Applied Economics at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB). Her research focuses on issues related to education and the labour market, industrial economics and tourism economics. She has published in several international journals and she has participated in different competitive research projects based on education, early school leaving, vocational training and gender.

Elena Quintana-Murci, PhD in Inclusive Education and Assistant Professor in the Department of Applied Pedagogy and Educational Psychology at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB). Her teaching expertise area is Vocational Training, Labour Insertion and Gender. Her research focuses on youth transitions to adulthood, Early Leaving from Education and Training and Gender. She has published in international journals and she participates in national and international research projects based on early school leaving, vocational training, gender, youth transitions and qualitative studies.

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