Nomenclature,Radiative Forcing and Temperature Projections in IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (AR4)

Abstract

By not following standard scientific nomenclature for parts per million by volume (ppmv) and parts per million by mass (ppm), the authors of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (AR4), introduced confusion between these units. This confusion in AR4 has spread to the scientific community and has potential to create problems. Carbon dioxide contributed approximately 11% of the change in atmospheric warming during the period from the ice ages to the pre-industrial level of 275 ppmv. This is consistent with the current proportion of warming by carbon dioxide, and casts doubt on carbon dioxide being almost 100% of the cause of atmospheric warming from 275 to 378 ppmv. The climate sensitivity parameter calculated for the projected temperature change range of 2.9°C to 6.4°C is physically impossible to achieve. The lower temperature range is unreliable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has an important obligation to make these problems known to policymakers and the public.

Keywords

carbon dioxide forcing global warming ppmv ppm radiative

References

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ Solomon

Qin

Manning

Chen

Marquis

Averyt

K.B.

Tignor

and Miller

H.L.

(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. See Section 2.10.2. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm

Nakicenovic

. Special report on emissions scenarios, a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change; 2000 p. 381–576. Available at: http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission/

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), 40 Years of Mauna Loa CO₂ Data from Keeling. Available at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/new/keel_page.html

Cleveland

Kaufman

Curve

Mauna Loa

. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Available at: http://www.eoearth.org/article/Mauna_Loa_curve

Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration. Available at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov:80/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton and Y. Ding, Co-Chairs of Working Group I, IPCC, 2001. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/pdf/WG1_TAR-FRONT.PDF

Wikipedia, Concentration. The last sentence under the last section: “Notes for clarity”. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentration

Wikipedia , Calculating the global warming potential. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org:80/wiki/Global_warming_potential

The Free Dictionary, radiative forcing. Available at: http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/Radiative+efficiency

10.

Wikipedia, Gimli Glider. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_Glider

11.

NASA's metric confusion caused Mars orbiter loss, CNN.com, September 30, 1999. Available at: http://www.cnn.com/TECH/space/9909/30/mars.metric/

12.

IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ Solomon

Qin

Manning

Chen

Marquis

Averyt

K.B.

Tignor

and Miller

H.L.

(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. See page 5. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm

13.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Houghton

J. T.

Ding

Griggs

D.J.

Noguer

van der Linden

P. J.

and Xiaosu

(Eds.), Cambridge University Press, UK, 2001. Section 6.3.5 Simplified Expressions. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/222.htm

14.

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Vital Climate Graphics, Temperature and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere over the past 400 000 years. Available at: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/page/3057.aspx

15.

Wikipedia, Climate Sensitivity. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_sensitivity