Abstract
The freight transport business is extremely challenging for railways because transport by truck has intrinsic advantages in flexibility and quality. Providing freight customers with flexible scheduling is particularly difficult because optimizing an interconnected rail operating plan is more difficult than arranging for shipment by truck. In this environment it would be helpful if shippers could provide railways with accurate demand forecasts. However, the ability to forecast rail freight transport differs strongly by shipper and commodity type. The goal of this research is to develop a methodological framework to understand better the characteristics that influence the ability of freight shippers to prepare accurate forecasts of rail demand. This information will help railways increase productivity by improving their ability to develop optimized schedules. It will help railways decide when to rely on shipper forecasts and provide a benchmark for identifying shippers that can provide accurate forecasts. The paper describes the methodological framework and presents results from a case study application to illustrate the practical applicability of the proposed framework.