Oil Production Outside OPEC and the Former Soviet Union: A Model Applied to the U.S. and U.K.*

Oil production in the area outside OPEC and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) has grown steadily for the past 30 years. This growth is expected to continue, despite the decline in oil prices since 1985. The steady growth in production contrasts with dramatic swings in oil prices. Non-price factors such as policies, enterprise behavior, and technical phenomena are important. This article sketches a model for tracing their interaction over time. The model is tested against the very different histories of oil production in the U.S. and U.K. The main conclusion is that non-price factors are important and differ between countries: in the U.S., environmental policy, and in the U.K., tax policy have been critical in determining oil production. The model may be extended to countries dominated by state oil enterprises, which account for most of the remaining production in this area, but this would require country-by-country analysis.