This paper presents evidence of a non-linear relationship between real GDP growth and oil price changes for the US economy. We also argue that this non-linearity is not merely due to the use of data from the mid-1980s onwards, as most authors, so far, seem to believe. In fact, we find the existence of non-linearity with the use of data earlier than 1984, and even before 1977. Furthermore, we question that the non-linear transformations of oil prices proposed in the literature are the most appropriate ones for reflecting such non-linearity.
AndrewsD.W.K. (1993). “Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point.” Econometrica61: 821-856.
2.
AndrewsD.W.K.PlobergerW. (1994). “Optimal Test when a Nuisance Parameter is Present Only under the Alternative.” Econometrica62: 1383-1414.
3.
BernankeB.GertlerM.WatsonM. (1997). “Systematic Monetary Policy and the effect of Oil Price Shocks.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity1: 91-142.
4.
BurbidgeJ.HarrisonA. (1984). “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions.” International Economic Review25: 459-484.
5.
DahlC. M. (1999). “An Investigation of Tests for Linearity and the Accuracy of Flexible Nonlinear Inference.” Unpublished manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Aarhus.
6.
DahlC. M.González-RiveraG. (2003). “Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Regression Models Based on the Theory of Random Fields.” Journal of Econometrics114: 141-164.
7.
DieboldF.MarianoR. (1995). “Comparing Predictive Accuracy.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics13: 253-263.
8.
GisserM.GoodwinT. H. (1986). “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Test of some Popular Notions.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking18: 94-103.
9.
HamiltonJ. (1983). “Oil and Macroeconomy since World War II.” Journal of Political Economy91: 228-248.
10.
HamiltonJ. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press.
11.
HamiltonJ. (1996). “This Is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship.” Journal of Monetary Economics38: 215-220.
HamiltonJ. (2003). “What Is an Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics113: 363-398.
14.
HamiltonJ.HerreraA. (2004). “Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking36: 265-286.
15.
HansenB.E. (1997). “Approximate Asymptotic p-values for Structural Change Tests.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics15: 60-67.
16.
HansenB.E. (2000). “Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models.” Journal of Econometrics97: 93-115.
17.
HookerM. (1996a). “What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?” Journal of Monetary Economics38: 195-213.
18.
HookerM. (1996b). “This Is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship: Reply.” Journal of Monetary Economics38: 221-222.
19.
HookerM. (1999). “Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
20.
LeeK.NiS.RattiR. (1995). “Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: the Role of Price Variability.” The Energy Journal16: 39-56.
21.
LeeK.NiS. (2002). “On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry Level Data.” Journal of Monetary Economics49: 823-852.
22.
LeeT.H.WhiteH.GrangerC.W.J. (1993). “Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Time Series Models.” Journal of Econometrics56: 269-290.
23.
MorkK. (1989). “Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results.” Journal of Political Economy97: 740-744.
24.
MorkK.OlsenO.H.Mysen(1994). “Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries.” The Energy Journal15: 19-35.
25.
RamseyJ.B. (1969). “Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least Square Regression Analysis.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society31: 350-371.
26.
RaymondJ.E.RichR.W. (1997).”Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking29: 193-213.
27.
SimsC.A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and Reality.” Econometrica48: 1-48.
28.
TerasvirtaT.LinC.F.GrangerC.W.J. (1993). “Power of the Neural Network Linearity Test.” Journal of Time Series Analysis14: 209-220.
29.
TsayR. S. (1986). “Nonlinearity Test for Time Series.” Biometrica73: 461-466.
30.
WhiteH.(1989). “An Additional Hidden Unit Test for Neglected Nonlinearity in Multilayer Feedforward Networks.” In Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, IEEE Press, New York, NY, Washington, DC, pp. 451-455.