Earthquake Spectra

We updated the earthquake strong-motion database of Türkiye (SMD-TR) that is initially compiled by Akkar et al. The updated data set consists of of 9244 earthquakes of magnitudes 3.0 ≤ M ≤ 7.8 that occurred between 1976 and 2023. It includes 95,890 three-component waveforms recorded at 1022 stations (55,375 records that are processed from 6710 events and 974 stations). The database is disseminated under research-oriented website DesignSafe (https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-f21x-s189) and is compiled to provide ground-motion flatfile, which will be updated periodically until 2025. The released version includes events occurred in Türkiye until 28 February 2023, and hence, it comprises of the mainshocks and a great portion of aftershocks from the February 6th, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. The database includes event metadata compiled from national and international seismological agencies as well as the literature. We classified events according to their tectonic environments (i.e. active crustal and subduction) and identified the aftershocks. The station information provided by AFAD¹ was used to compute the major site parameters, including time-based average of shear-wave velocity of uppermost 30 m (V_S30) and depth-to-rock horizon at which the shear-wave velocity (V_S) attains 1 km/s (Z₁). We also computed the finite-fault distance metrics and flagged the stations located on the hanging-wall side of the rupture, as well as identified pulse-like records. We developed an automatic processing algorithm to determine the waveform quality, apply appropriate filtercut-offs to remove low- and high-frequency noise, and compute ground-motion parameters. The automatic processing was applied to small-magnitude (M < 5.5) events, whereas manual processing scheme is preferred for waveforms recorded from larger events (M ≥ 5.5). The peak ground-motion values, spectral ordinates, and ground-motion duration are provided along with the key data processing parameters in the flatfile.

A newly compiled high-quality ground-shaking dataset of 207 intermediate-depth earthquakes recorded in the Vrancea region of the south-eastern Carpathian mountains in Romania was used to develop region-specific empirical predictive equations for various intensity measures: peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration up to 10 s. Besides common predictor variables (e.g. moment magnitude, depth, hypocentral distance, and site conditions), additional distance scaling parameters were added to describe the specific attenuation pattern observed at the stations located not only on the back and fore but also along the Carpathian arc. In this model, we introduce a proxy measure for the site as the fundamental frequency of resonance to characterize the site response at each recording seismic station beside the soil classes. To additionally reduce the site-to-site variability, a non-ergodic methodology was considered, resulting in a lower standard deviation of about 25%. Statistical evaluation of the newly proposed ground-motion models indicates robust performance compared to regional observations. The model shows significant improvements in describing the spatial variability (at different spectral ordinates), particularly for the fore-arc area of the Carpathians where a deep sedimentary basin is located. Furthermore, the model presented herein improves estimates of ground shaking at longer spectral ordinates (>1 s) in agreement with the observations. The proposed ground-motion models are valid for hypocentral distances less than 500 km, depths over 70 km and within the moment magnitude range of 4.0–7.4.

Current building code requirements for seismic design are primarily intended to minimize life-safety risks due to structural damage under extreme earthquakes. While tall buildings designed under current standards are expected to achieve the life-safety goal, this study estimates that they may require up to 7.5 months of repair to return to functionality after a design-level earthquake (roughly equivalent to ground motion shaking with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years), and over 1 year after a risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (roughly equivalent to ground motion shaking with a 2%–4% chance of exceedance in 50 years). These long downtimes, which correspond to median predictions, far exceed recovery goals for major employers and other recovery-critical uses and can have disproportionately harmful effects on businesses and residents. To address such extensive downtime risks, we evaluate the impact of recovery-based design guidelines for reducing recovery times through (1) more stringent drift limits under expected ground motions and (2) measures to mitigate externalities that impede recovery. The results suggest that by combining these strategies, expected recovery times following a design-level earthquake can be reduced to roughly 1 month, and to 2 months following a risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake. These findings are illustrated for an archetype 42-story reinforced concrete shear wall residential building and a 40-story steel buckling-restrained braced frame office building in San Francisco, CA.

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) relaxes fault segmentation, allowing multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures through fault-to-fault “jumps,” with lengths up to ∼1200 km along the San Andreas Fault. Local faults are also highly interconnected, including ruptures on the order of hundreds of kilometers. These prescribed long ruptures did not exist in older models. Longer ruptures produce larger aggregate loss estimates for geographically dispersed assets (portfolios) due to the wider areas that are affected by strong ground shaking. In this study, we model probabilistic earthquake losses of a hypothetical state-wide building portfolio in California. We develop risk deaggregation methods to identify multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures that contribute significantly to high portfolio-wide risks. Three risk measures that are commonly used in risk management decisions are examined: Average Annual Loss (AAL), Return Period Loss (RPL_α), and Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE_α), for an annual exceedance probability “α,” or corresponding return period “1/α.” Our results show that while the super long ruptures (>500 km) contribute modestly (∼7%) to the portfolio AAL estimate, they contribute more significantly to portfolio catastrophe risk estimates. Specifically, at a 250 year return period, these long ruptures contribute about 26% and 32% to RPL₂₅₀ and TCE₂₅₀ estimates, respectively. At a 500-year return period, the corresponding contributions reach about 35% and 39%. Ruptures that connect complex fault systems are also found to be highly influential to estimated portfolio risks. At a 500-year return period, a mere six rupture groups contribute nearly 70% to the RPL₅₀₀ estimate. Due to the importance of the UCERF3 model to many risk management and public policy decisions, a critical examination of the limit and uncertainty of fault connectivity and rupture lengths of future earthquakes, as well as their impacts on catastrophe risk assessments, is warranted in future model updates.