Domestic and International Consent: Regime Durability in Bangladesh (2009–2024)

Part 1: Previous Bangladesh Nationalist Party Regime (2001–2005)

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by former Prime Minister (PM) Begum Khaleda Zia, secured a second term from 2001 to 2005 in association with Jamaat-e-Islami and several small Islamist parties. This period has been the most controversial in Bangladesh’s political history. The grounds given were the increase in Islamic fundamentalism, terrorism, and corruption in administrative and institutional setups. ‘Transparency International’ ranked Bangladesh as the most corrupt nation in the world at this time (Al Jazeera 2005). This generated mistrust between citizens and the state. Furthermore, there were significant clashes between the ruling BNP and the opposition BAL political party, including regular parliamentary boycotts, violent street protests, and general strikes. Rather than fostering a culture of compromise, the BNP government intensified political rivalry, which further restricted democratic practices.

The emergence of Islamic militancy: The government coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami politically legitimized extreme elements. Organizations such as Jamaat-e-Mujahideen Bangladesh and Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami have extended their networks. Coordinated bomb attacks were seen in sixty-three districts of the nation in August 2005 (The Daily Star 2022). Moreover, on August 15, 2004, a BAL rally at Dhaka was attacked by grenades, killing twenty-four individuals and injuring hundreds, including Sheikh Hasina (Datta 2007; Mostofa 2021). The BNP government was accused of sheltering criminals and ignoring the militants’ threat. On the other hand, after the formation of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in 2004, allegations of human rights abuses increased (Human Rights Watch 2006).

While the government asserted that the process aimed to reduce crime, civil society and international observers criticized it as a breach of the rule of law (Uddin 2018). Bangladesh was unable to achieve its full economic potential due to widespread mismanagement during that period. Additionally, disputes regarding border killings, water sharing, and cross-border migration intensified, leading to a deterioration in relations with India (Rahman and Islam 2024). Western development partners and international organizations raised concerns about corruption and militancy. Additionally, the internal electoral system lost credibility due to allegations of flawed voter registration and restrictions on opposition political rights. These issues cast doubt on the integrity of the democratic process. Khaleda Zia’s limitations stemmed not only from administrative weaknesses but also from structural and systemic failures. On the other hand, the inherent weakness ultimately fosters some degree of empathy among civil society for the major opposition party, the BAL.

Part 2: The Bangladesh Awami League Government’s Initial Mandate (2009–2014)

Amid the stormy conditions of the 2008 national elections, the BAL, led by dynamic Sheikh Hasina, took office, charting a course through a sea of political turmoil marked by violence, boycotts, and the specter of a military-backed caretaker government (Haider 2011). Throughout this trying time, the Bangladeshi economy proved incredibly resilient, riding out a global economic slump with a staggering 6 percent GDP growth rate. The government carefully aligned its priorities with key sectors, prioritizing substantial rural infrastructure expansion, advances in energy generation, generous agricultural subsidies, and strategic investments in the fast-growing, export-driven garment industry. These expertly designed programs yielded results, and the poverty level fell dramatically from an alarming 40 percent in 2005 to a respectable 31.5 percent in 2010 and 26.4 percent by 2013 (Rahman 2014; World Bank Group 2011).

Over the last few years, Bangladesh has seen unparalleled growth in its foreign exchange reserves, largely driven by a steady stream of remittances from its dynamic diaspora worldwide. The Digital Bangladesh policy ranks among the BAL’s high points under its leadership. This revolutionary program aimed to bridge the digital divide, equip citizens with greater access to information and communication technology (ICT), make e-governance more efficient, and transform critical sectors such as education and banking (Amin and Gill 2024). By addressing the imbalance in service delivery between densely populated urban hubs and marginalized rural communities, the policy has not only changed lives but also knitted communities together more tightly. By 2010, the United Nations (UN) had recognized Bangladesh as a pioneer in meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), outshining others significantly in the critical areas of gender equality in primary education, maternal and child health, and the spread of microfinance programs. This coveted award underscores the nation’s unflinching determination to advance on these critical fronts, shining a beacon toward a brighter, more equal future for its people. During this period, the level of internal security stability significantly helped consolidate popular support for the BAL (Naqvi et al. 2025).

In 2011, utilizing its commanding parliamentary majority, the BAL government took a bold step by abolishing the caretaker government system in Bangladesh through the comprehensive 15th Amendment ¹ to the Constitution. This move raised widespread concerns about the transparency and integrity of the country’s democratic process. Consequently, the years 2013–2014 were marked by heightened political unrest, including protests, widespread strikes, and violent clashes between rival factions. Journalists and opposition activists found themselves increasingly targeted, enduring harassment and persecution under the harsh provisions of the Information and Communication Technology Act and the Restrictive Security Act. In Sheikh Hasina’s first term, Bangladesh’s diplomatic relationship with India underwent a significant shift, marked by the signing of key agreements on transit, security, and energy cooperation. The government was tough on the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), ² which had misused Bangladeshi soil to attack Indian territory (The Times of India 2014). Still, fundamental issues remained unresolved, including the Teesta River water deal, border trade and disputes, and the land treaty agreement, which generated ongoing tension. Furthermore, Hasina’s government’s increasing intimacy with India was a thorny issue in local politics, eliciting the harshest criticisms from opposition forces (Gupta 2023). During her first term, Bangladesh also endeavored to strengthen its economic ties with China, creating a rich tapestry of global links that would influence the country’s future trajectory.

The political landscape in Bangladesh is primarily dominated by the BAL, which has concentrated power to the point that it subverts the necessary checks and balances of a proper parliamentary system. This concentration of power inhibits the growth of a diversified economy, leaving the country greatly reliant on the ready-made garment (RMG) sector. Vulnerabilities emerge that hinder long-term economic growth. The significant service gaps between urban and rural areas further highlight the development disparities, leaving many citizens feeling sidelined. The prevalent human rights violations and the worrying decline in democratic freedoms create a bleak atmosphere, where the government often resorts to violent tactics to suppress opposition protests. Additionally, the unresolved Teesta water-sharing agreement has drawn intense criticism from domestic opposition parties and contributed to growing public discontent (Gupta 2023; Sardar 2021).

Part 3: The Legitimacy Challenge (2014–2018)

Against the politically volatile backdrop of the 2014 national elections, BAL’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, faced a major legitimacy crisis as she attempted to form a government. The situation was further compounded when the main opposition party, the BNP, decided to boycott the elections (Abedin 2020; Riaz 2014) in response to calls for a caretaker government to administer the elections. The international media, including the EU countries, the USA, the UK, Commonwealth nations, and others, initially declined to send election observers. This decision cast a shadow over the electoral process, raising serious doubts about its integrity and legitimacy. The political climate grew increasingly tense, with the ruling government adopting an authoritarian stance and using state institutions for political gain. This drew sharp criticism from Western media and heightened the existing tensions. After the election results altered global perceptions, UK Foreign Office Minister Baroness Sayeeda Hussain Warsi stated that the UK believes in ‘the mark of a mature, credible election that expresses the genuine will of the voters.’ The EU offers a duty-free allowance for almost 60 percent of Bangladeshi garment products, significantly boosting the garment industry (Commonwealth Office 2014).

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon raised concerns about serious abuses during the election campaign, calling them ‘unacceptable.’ The UN continued its commitment to supporting Bangladesh’s democratic processes, ‘in accordance with the principles of inclusiveness, non-violence and dialogue.’ Japan, India, Russia, and China have congratulated the Hasina government and continued their investments, and other South Asian countries have followed suit (Bhattacharjee 2014, 2024). BAL catalyzed remarkable changes in the nation’s economic and social landscape. Bangladesh made impressive headway in infrastructure development and undertook significant measures to address the Rohingya refugee crisis, which bolstered both domestic and international support.

This economic momentum laid the groundwork for ambitious projects, notably the bold Padma Multipurpose Bridge—an undertaking funded entirely by local resources that epitomizes the nation’s resilience. This bridge construction project materialized despite the World Bank’s (WB) withdrawal of funding due to corruption allegations. However, Bangladesh’s approach to China for financial and technical support for ongoing development ambitions stands as a symbol of Bangladesh’s determination. It dramatically improved regional connectivity, reducing travel times from nearly 10 h to 3–4 h for trips between Dhaka and twenty-one southern districts. Beyond its impressive structure, the bridge has set off a positive chain reaction—boosting household incomes, spurring trade, and creating job opportunities through investments from both domestic and foreign sectors (Ahmed 2022; Ali et al. 2022; Razzaque and Ishita 2022). This transformative project is expected to increase district and sub-district (upazila) income by around 20 percent and create 15 percent of local jobs, breathing new life into communities and igniting hope and prosperity throughout the region (Shoulin et al. 2024).

On the other hand, a global court in The Hague settled a longstanding dispute between India and Bangladesh over a maritime boundary, awarding Bangladesh 19,467 square kilometers of the 25,602 square kilometers in question in the Bay of Bengal. Furthermore, Bangladesh successfully addressed a similar naval dispute with Myanmar; in this case, while Dhaka claimed 80,000 square kilometers, it was awarded 70,000 square kilometers (Bangladesh Awami League 2014; The Daily Star 2014). In 2015, Bangladesh and India reached a landmark land boundary agreement, representing a significant accomplishment for the Hasina administration. Prime Ministers Narendra Modi of India and Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh successfully resolved an issue that had persisted for decades, dating back to Bangladesh’s independence (Baral 2025). The deal involved the exchange of 111 Indian enclaves with Bangladesh and 51 Bangladeshi enclaves with India (Ministry of External Affairs 2015; Quadir 2015).

By contrast, there has been a remarkable and consistent focus on social objectives, particularly in the context of the MDGs. ³ In particular, efforts to reduce poverty have led to dramatic improvements in communities’ living conditions, with programs that offer vocational training and employment opportunities increasing families financial security. Healthcare access has also improved significantly, with additional clinics opening in remote locations and mobile health centers serving unreached populations (Chowdhury et al. 2011). Educational opportunities have also grown, with government initiatives now providing monthly stipends to families, allowing girls to attend school while establishing a culture of empowerment and learning (Hahn et al. 2018; Raynor and Wesson 2006). Additionally, maternal and child health care have improved considerably, driven by greater access to antenatal and postnatal care. Health and nutrition campaigns have empowered mothers with vital information to care for their children, yielding healthier families and a hopeful future for the next generation. These successes illustrate a strong commitment to creating long-term societal change and reinforce the value of social equity and support for everyone. Hasina implemented important environmental measures, earning the ‘Champion of the Earth’ designation from the UN in 2015 (United Nations 2015).

On the other hand, Sheikh Hasina provided humanitarian shelter to an impressive 800,000 refugees fleeing ethnic violence in Myanmar, resulting in widespread admiration from various circles both at home and abroad. UK-based Channel 4 News and Sheikh Hasina’s supporters in Bangladesh called her the ‘Mother of Humanity’ (The Diplomat 2015). However, despite this compassionate response, powerful nations have displayed little enthusiasm for addressing the urgent Rohingya refugee crisis. As a result, the second term of the BAL attracted considerable opprobrium from opposition parties nationwide. Concerns also emerged regarding the democratic legitimacy of the BAL’s victory in the contentious 2014 elections, primarily stemming from the government’s failure to garner support from major powers in resolving the pressing issue of the Rohingya refugees (Hossain 2023).

In the wake of continued opposition criticism, the government launched a comprehensive, ambitious plan to redesign the country’s infrastructure. The move attracted considerable investment from a broad spectrum of multinational firms across China, India, Japan, Russia, and South Korea. In the ever-changing South Asian geopolitical environment, Bangladesh has navigated its relations with its two pivotal neighbors, India and China, with skill, avoiding total reliance on any one partner for development (Hussain and Haque 2016). This shrewd strategy has enabled Bangladesh to undertake a healthy range of infrastructure projects and propel strong economic growth. China has firmly established itself as Bangladesh’s leading contributor to its infrastructure projects, financing milestone projects such as the Padma Bridge, the railway link, the Payra Sea Port, and the Dhaka Elevated Expressway. These projects, which form the heart of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have significantly shaped Bangladesh’s development trajectory. In the meantime, India has taken a leading role in reviving critical trade links by restoring key rail routes, including the Khulna-Mongla Sea Port, Akhaura-Agartala, and Khulna-Kolkata railway connections (Hussain 2021). These efforts are vital to promoting trade and enhancing economic ties between the two countries, bolstering Bangladesh’s status as an influential nation in the region (Anwar 2019).

In addition, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has become a vital bilateral development partner of Bangladesh, providing extensive technical and financial aid. JICA’s investment in developing the metro rail in Dhaka, the Matarbari deep-sea port, and the second terminal of Bangladesh’s primary international airport illustrates its impactful contribution to diversifying investment sources and strengthening the country’s infrastructure (Khatun et al. 2023). The BAL administration has also achieved a historic milestone in the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Bangladesh’s first nuclear power plant, in partnership with Russia’s state-owned corporation Rosatom. This forward-thinking project is set to meet the nation’s growing electricity demands, showcasing the government’s commitment to progressive energy solutions. While South Korea may not wield the same influence as China and Japan in infrastructure development, it plays a crucial role in advancing Bangladesh’s ICT sector, ⁴ establishing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and promoting human resource development and renewable energy initiatives. With support from the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) and the Korea Exim Bank, South Korea actively supports Bangladesh’s ambitious ‘Digital Bangladesh’ vision (Amin and Gill 2024; Hussain 2021). Despite facing various criticisms during its second term, the BAL government has adeptly navigated these challenges, leveraging a steady flow of foreign investment, fostering continuous economic progress, and executing strategic diplomatic initiatives. Bangladesh is well-positioned to capitalize on its diverse partnerships, drive growth and development while asserting its significant role in the region.

Part 4: The Consolidation of Power and Intensified Geopolitical Competition (2018–2023)

Between 2018 and 2023, the BAL government under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina underwent a crucial period of political consolidation, economic development, and infrastructure growth. Meanwhile, this period was also marked by a kaleidoscopic mix of legitimacy crisis (Maîtrot and Jackman 2023). In the 11th national election of 2018, Sheikh Hasina was elected Prime Minister for the fourth time, thereby securing her second consecutive term since 2009. Even though the BAL won a resounding victory with 288 seats out of 300, independent analysts, such as Time Magazine (TM) and Human Rights Watch (HRW), had serious doubts about the integrity of the electoral process. Numerous irregularities were documented, including vote rigging, coercive ballot box stuffing, and the persecution of opposition leaders and activists through various legal mechanisms. In this context, both domestic critics and international observers cautioned against a potential rollback of democracy and the emergence of one-party rule in Bangladesh (Finnigan 2019; Ganguly 2019).

Despite these legitimacy challenges, the Hasina government successfully garnered strong support from state institutions and friendly leaders of other countries. The government leveraged its development accomplishments to foster public support and maintain a strategic balance in global alliances, thereby garnering crucial financial investment and diplomatic assistance. The approach helped the government maintain its grip on the political establishment. Nevertheless, this phase was also marked by contradictions. The Hasina administration achieved unprecedented infrastructure development and economic growth, earning worldwide acclaim as a model of development in South Asia. At the same time, this phase saw a decline in democratic institutions, a weakening of press freedom, bureaucratic challenges, misgovernance, and a lack of transparency in governance. These problems triggered significant criticism of the Hasina government, and the resulting political situation was complicated and nuanced (Hassaan et al. 2024; Hossain 2025).

This period significantly catalyzed economic growth in Bangladesh, which achieved the highest GDP growth rate and the highest per capita income ⁵ in South Asia. In 2019, Bangladesh achieved a remarkable 8 percent growth, driven mainly by the RMG industry and remittances from migrant workers. This growth dovetailed with the BAL’s Action Plans for Vision 2021 and 2041. In 2021, Bangladesh achieved the status of a least developed country (LDC) ⁶ and a middle-income country (MIC). This transition not only marked a pivotal moment domestically but also enhanced Bangladesh’s stature on the global stage, signaling its structural transformation and rise in the world economy. While neighboring countries such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan grappled with severe economic and political challenges, Bangladesh celebrated the inauguration of the Padma Bridge in June 2022, completed without WB funding. This accomplishment not only highlights the nation’s ability to carry out major infrastructure projects independently but is also expected to yield at least a 1.2 percent increase in national GDP growth through improved connectivity in the southwestern region (Macrotrends 2023). Furthermore, a new era in urban transportation in Dhaka began with the launch of the Metrorail in late 2022, which aims to alleviate long-standing traffic congestion in the capital.

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built in collaboration with Russia, successfully diversified Bangladesh’s energy supply. ⁷ At the same time, Japan’s investment in the Matarbari Deep Sea Port and Payra Sea Port Development Projects positioned Bangladesh as an emerging maritime hub in the Bay of Bengal region. These developments are complemented by improvements in social indicators, including rising literacy rates, increased life expectancy, poverty alleviation, girls’ and women’s education and empowerment, ⁸ reduced gender gap in the political sphere, ⁹ and enhanced access to health services is dramatically lowering child and maternal mortality rates, significantly reducing the poverty–hunger ratio, and providing excellent support for girls and women.

Overall, these initiatives are an important step toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). ¹⁰ Bangladesh has received international acclaim for attaining these goals (Alo 2021). The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be a pivotal moment for Bangladesh, revealing significant shortcomings in its healthcare system. In response to this crisis, the country successfully secured vaccines through a collaborative effort involving India, China, and the COVAX initiative. This strategic approach underscores Dhaka’s pragmatic decision-making as it navigates the intricate landscape of international partnerships during a global emergency (Sarker and Ghosh 2023).

As the world faces economic disruptions linked to both the pandemic and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, Bangladesh’s structural vulnerabilities have become increasingly evident. The country is facing significant challenges, including rising inflation, recurring energy shortages, and rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves. In an attempt to resolve these vital economic issues, the government of Bangladesh approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2023 to seek a $4.7 billion loan package (The Business Standard 2023). However, the consequences of the economic assistance have sparked a contentious dispute between the ruling administration and the opposition camp, with fears that the action would adversely affect the nation’s long-term economic independence. One of the key reasons behind Bangladesh’s economic vulnerability is its over-reliance on RMG exports, which account for the vast majority of its foreign exchange revenue. This excessive dependence has impeded the government’s efforts to diversify its export basket and enhance resilience to external shocks (Rahman and Chowdhury 2020). The spillovers from the Russia–Ukraine conflict have also exacerbated the situation, leading to dramatic increases in the import prices of vital products, notably fuel and foodstuffs. Moreover, widespread discontent has been building over perceptions of economic mismanagement, casting doubt on the viability of the existing economic model (Shah et al. 2022). Although ambitious megaprojects have successfully elevated the country’s international profile and national prestige, serious questions remain about their financial viability and the risk of plunging the nation into a debt crisis.

Most of these are huge investments under China’s BRI, which has raised concerns regarding the long-term implications of such economic engagements. In light of these complexities, Dhaka has chosen a cautious path, carefully weighing the lessons learned from Sri Lanka’s economic difficulties and the potential strategic sensitivities that characterize its relationship with India (Samaranayake 2011). Through this measured approach, Bangladesh aims to protect its economic interests while preserving vital international partnerships (Datta 2021; Hosain et al. 2024). Under the dynamic leadership of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh has woven a complex tapestry of economic and political stability, marked by moments of vulnerability in her third term. The country has registered significant progress toward achieving its sustainable development objectives, introduced revolutionary infrastructure projects, and navigated external power rivalries skillfully to reap internal dividends. In a first for South Asia, Bangladesh has enjoyed an uninterrupted power supply for a remarkable 15 years, a record that glows as a beacon of development. However, the sheen of these successes is dimmed by uncertainty (Das et al. 2018). Issues hover around the democratic credentials of power changes, the ascendancy of authoritarianism, the debilitation of opposition parties, and human rights abuses. Such factors have sparked intense debates about the authenticity of the nation’s proclaimed economic growth.

Part 5: Bangladesh as a Proxy Battleground for Global Superpowers (August 5, 2024)

In the 12th parliamentary elections, 2024, the BAL government secured its third consecutive victory, which Hasina dubbed the ‘Victory of the People (Bengali called, Janno Manusher Joy).’ On January 11, 2024, she was awarded the title of world’s longest-serving female prime minister, surpassing the reigns of Indira Gandhi, Angela Merkel, and Margaret Thatcher. The Economist, a British weekly newspaper, called Hasina ‘Asia’s Iron Lady’ in effect hailing her comeback as a sign of the people’s choice (Hasina 2023).

India, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea ratified the election in defiance of Western pressure. However, Harsh V. Pant (2024) argued that Western interests, including those of the USA, the EU, the UK, and other allied partners, not only challenged the legitimacy of Hasina’s election but also pressured the Hasina government to prevent a one-party election. The source of this Western disapproval lies in the USA’s increasing frustration with growing Asian political solidarity and the consolidation of the Global South against US predominance. Despite this maze of international support and opposition, Sheikh Hasina’s continuation could be explained by the success of unprecedented public welfare delivery during her previous terms (Hasina 2023; Liton 2024). Nevertheless, within 7 months, Hasina had to abdicate amid a student movement protesting her authoritarian rule and demanding greater democratic space (Das 2025). This was expected to lead to democratization in Bangladesh. However, assessing the political developments since Hasina’s ouster, it can be safely asserted that the interim government has been a mere shadow of Hasina’s former self in terms of democratization and human rights.

Part 6: A Contrast with the Current Bangladesh Situation

By law, the interim government that took power last year has dramatically failed to safeguard the citizens’ rights in the nation. Incidents of mob justice, communal violence against religious minorities (Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists), criminal extortion, and violence against women suddenly soared dramatically (Bhattacherjee 2025; Mostofa 2025). The interim government also failed to ensure that foreign investors were adequately safeguarded, resulting in a sharp decline in new foreign investment (Austin 2024; The Asian Lite 2025). Bilateral relations with India, which once thrived on partnership and cooperation, have deteriorated sharply, and the country has become increasingly reliant on China. This unsettling shift has also fostered ties with nations like Pakistan, known for their connections to terrorism, creating an environment conducive to the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and militancy within the country (Bhattacharya 2025). The interim government has lifted the political ban on the Islamist political party Jamaat-e-Islami, thereby creating an opportunity for the party to participate in politics in Bangladesh (Tanjim 2025).

Moreover, this problem raises fundamental questions about the soul and history of the 1971 Liberation War. The present government has also ignored the importance of the first Victory Day and Independence Day, which mark Bangladesh’s 1971 independence (The Financial Express 2025). Overall, the situation is worsening, revealing the worst aspects of Sheikh Hasina’s regime, while a more profound sense of humanity seems to be eroding among citizens.

Part 7: Safeguarding Bangladesh’s Electoral Sanctity

The following measures are essential to protect the sanctity of Bangladesh’s electoral system and strengthen its democratic framework: repealing the Fifteenth Amendment to the Constitution; holding elections under a nonpartisan caretaker government; making the Election Commission’s activities more transparent and accountable, with the involvement of the judiciary and civil society; ensuring long-term transparency and accountability in electoral processes; implementing biometric voter cards and real-time audits; and protecting elections from the authoritarian practices of the ruling party. Political parties should also be discouraged from accepting foreign donations during elections. In addition, a close working relationship should be established between the Election Commission, the security forces, and other branches of the armed forces to maintain law and order and ensure fair elections (Kamal et al. 2013).