Abstract
Aims
To determine whether inflammatory biomarkers are causal risk factors for more myopic refractive errors.
Methods
Northern Sweden Population Health Study (NSPHS), providing inflammatory biomarkers data; UK Biobank, providing refractive errors data. 95,619 European men and women aged 40 to 69 years with available information of refractive errors and inflammatory biomakers. Inflammatory biomarkers including ADA, CCL23, CCL25, CD6, CD40, CDCP-1, CST5, CXCL-5, CXCL-6, CXCL-10, IL-10RB, IL-12B, IL-15RA, IL-18R1, MCP-2, MMP-1, TGF-β1, TNF-β, TWEAK and VEGF-A were exposures, and spherical equivalent (SE) using the formula SE = sphere + (cylinder/2) was outcome.
Results
Mendelian randomization analyses showed that each unit increase in VEGF-A, CD6, MCP-2 were causally related to a more myopic refractive errors of 0.040 D/pg.mL-1 (95% confidence interval 0.019 to 0.062; P = 2.031 × 10-4), 0.042 D/pg.mL-1 (0.027 to 0.057; P = 7.361 × 10-8) and 0.016 D/pg.mL-1 (0.004 to 0.028; P = 0.009), and each unit increase in TWEAK was causally related to a less myopic refractive errors of 0.104 D/pg.mL-1 (−0.152 to −0.055; P = 2.878 × 10-5). Tested by the MR-Egger, weighted median, MR-PRESSO, Leave-one-out methods, our results were robust to horizontal pleiotropy and heterogeneity in VEGF-A, MCP-2, CD6, but not in TWEAK.
Conclusions
Our Mendelian Randomization analysis supported the causal effects of VEGF-A, MCP-2, CD6 and TWEAK on myopic refractive errors. These findings are important for providing new indicators for early intervention of myopia to make myopic eyesight threatening consequences less inevitable.
Keywords
Introduction
Refractive errors, mainly myopia, are not only the most frequent eye disorders worldwide,1,2 but also the third global leading cause of blindness in those aged 50 and older in 2020. 3 It's estimated that 49.8% of the world population will have myopia and 10% will suffer from high myopia by 2050. 4 High myopia increases the risk of pathologic ocular changes such as myopic retinopathy, glaucoma, and retinal detachment, all of which can cause irreversible visual impairment. 5
Over the past decades, many studies suggest that myopic refractive errors have a complex etiology with multiple factors involved, such as environmental exposures and genetics exposures. 6 Although the exact mechanism of myopic refractive errors is unclear, a growing body of evidence supports that inflammatory biomarkers play crucial roles in ocular growth and refractive development.7–9 It has been reported that patients with autoimmune diseases such as type 1 diabetes mellitus, systemic lupus erytheomatosus, uveitis, 8 and allergic conjunctivitis had higher risk of myopia compared with those without. 9 Interferon γ, IL-6, IFN-γ-induced protein 10 (IP-10), eotaxin, and macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α), were significantly higher in the high myopic group than in the control group. 9 In high myopes, the inflammatory biomarkers (IL-6, IL-10 and MCP-1), 7 neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio were upregulated, 10 and the eyes with myopic choroidal neovascularization showed significantly higher VEGF than those without. 7 long et al. found that the levels of C3 and CH50 were higher in patients with pathologic myopia, suggesting that inflammation induced by complement activation may play an important role in myopia. 11 However, it is challenging to identify the role of inflammatory markers in the pathogenesis of myopic refractive errors because of the potential bias due to reverse causation, which refers to the possibility of refractive errors being the cause rather than the consequence of inflammation.
Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method that uses large cross-sectional data combined with genetic information to assess the causal association between exposure and outcome, which can overcome the typical traps of confounders and reverse causation in observational analyses. MR uses SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphism, SNP) strongly associated with exposures as instrumental variables (IVs) to explore the association between exposures and outcomes. Since human genes are rarely disturbed by acquired confounders and the distribution of genes is naturally randomized, MR has strong ability in determing causal associations.
Here, a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis was performed to investigate the causal link between inflammatory biomarkers and myopic refractive errors.
Methods
Definitions
Inflammatory biomarkers - We included 21 inflammatory biomarkers from a published GWAS using data of Northern Sweden Population Health Study (NHPHS), which was launched in 2006 in Karesuando county of Norrbotten, Sweden with 1,069 participants, with 892 usable samples (Table 1).12–15
Detailed information of inflammatory biomarkers.
Refractive errors (RE) - The genetic data of outcome RE were obtained from the published GWAS, 16 including 95,619 European participants from UK Biobank. The exclusion criteria was participants with conditons that could alter refraction (1) cataract surgery; (2) retinal detachment surgery; (3) laser refractive procedures; (4) keratoconus; (5) ocular or systemic syndromes. Spherical equivalent was assessed as the sphere + (cylinder/2). All participants were measured by non-cycloplegic autorefraction. The value of the spherical equivalent of myopic refractive error is negative, that means in MR results, the interpretation of the β coefficient needs to be interpreted in reverse.
Genotype data
We selected SNPs from the original GWAS article, and the specific selection criteria were based on the reference of this original article. 15 A series of quality control steps were used in the original article to select the instrument SNPs. Although this sample bank has a small sample size due to its expensive cost on self-sequencing, it has the advantages of more accurate measurement and more types of biomarker samples.
The P-value threshold of P = 10−6 was selected in the original article, and the linkage disequilibrium (LD) threshold was R2 = 0.6, which was also followed in this study. The reason for choosing a P-value threshold of P = 10−6 is that approximately 0.1% of the genome was analyzed for each of the 85 proteins in the original study, so the P-threshold should be at the same level as the multiple test adjustment used in the GWAS. LD threshold of R2 = 0.6 was chosen to maintain a meaningful number of genetic instruments and to increase the ability to detect causal effects for as many proteins as possible. 17 After removing data for the above selected exposure SNPs from the outcome trait, we conducted F-test to test whether instrumental SNPs had a weak association with exposure, using formula “F = β2/se2”. If F is far greater than 10, the possibility of weak instrumental variable association is small.
Statistical methods
Two-Sample mr analysis
We performed two-sample MR analyses to evaluate the impact of inflammatory biomarkers on myopia in Europe populations. All analyses were conducted using R software (version 3.4.4) with the TwoSampleMR package.
IVW analysis is the most efficient method in MR with greatest statistic power. It combines Wald estimates for each SNP to get the overall estimates of the correlation of causal effects. P < 0.05/N was considered statistically significant (N = number of exposures * number of outcome), in our study that was P < 0.05/21 = 0.002. In the hypothesis of IVW, we believed that these SNPs are not pleiotropic and considered that the results of GWAS are mostly phenotype standardized, which required us to continue with the pleiotropy and sensitivity analysis.
Pleiotropy and sensitivity analysis
MR-Egger is the method used to assess potential heterogeneity. In the MR-Egger hypothesis, we used intercepts to assess horizontal pleiotropy.18–20 If the intercept term in MR Egger regression is close to 0, with P > 0.05 then the MR-Egger regression model is very close to the IVW, the estimation accuracy is higher. If the intercept term differs greatly with 0, it indicates that there may be horizontal pleiotropy between these IVs. The weighted median(WM) method can obtain estimates consistent with the final effect when 50% of the IVs are valid instrumental variables, reducing the bias in causality judgments when some IVs are not consistent with the assumptions of the instrumental variables. MR-PRESSO is a method to detect and reduce horizontal pleiotropy in IVW linear regression through removing SNPs related to heterogeneity. 21 The number of distributions in MR-PRESSO analysis was set to 1000. If the MR-PRESSO analysis detected a significant horizontal pleiotropy, we shall remove the outlier variants and perform MR analysis again. After removing outlier, if heterogeneity was still significant, we would remove all SNPs with P values less than 1 in the MR-PRESSO outlier test and perform MR analysis again. 22 MR.RAPS use robust adjusted profile score to correct pleiotropy, with strong robustness in measuring systematic and heterogeneous pleiotropy, and can measure MR outcomes for weak instrumental variables.
At last, we evaluated the heterogeneity for IVs using the Cochran's Q test (P < 0.05 shows heterogeneity) and removed the SNP one by one continuously, while using the remaining SNP continue to do MR analysis, which is “leave one out”. If “leave one out” show existence of SNP with possible potential effects, that means there is reliance of MR on a single SNP.
Patient involvement
No patients were involved in the whole process of data collection and analysis. All our analysis data were derived from publicly published GWAS articles, each included article was approved by the ethical review committees, no registration or protocol was required, and written informed consent was obtained from all participants.
Availability of data and materials
Genome-wide association study data sources of inflammatory biomarkers are publicly available in the original GWAS article, and data on refractive errors can be found in https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/studies/GCST009521. Analysis scripts can be found on https://mrcieu.github.io/TwoSampleMR/.
Results
Two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis for causal link of inflammatory biomarkers with refractive errors
Figure 1 demonstrated that refractive errors was positively correlated with the level of VEGF-A and CD6 at the threthold of P < 0.002. Each unit increase in VEGF-A, CD6 and MCP-2 resulted in a more myopic refractive errors of 0.040 (95% confidence interval 0.019 to 0.062; P = 2.031E-04), 0.042 D/pg.mL−1 (0.027 to 0.057; P = 7.361E-08) and 0.016 D/pg.mL−1 (0.004 to 0.028; P = 0.009). Meanwhile, CCL-25, CST-5, IL-18R1 showed slightly positive correlation with refractive errors at the threshold of P < 0.5.

Total causal effect of biomarkers on refractive errors under the inverse-variance weighted Mendelian randomization method.
Refractive errors was negatively associated with the level of TWEAK at the threthold of P < 0.002, and was slightly associated with the level of IL-10RB at the threshold of P < 0.05. Each unit increase in TWEAK was associated with a 0.104 D/pg.mL−1 (−0.152 to −0.055; P = 2.878E-05) reduction in myopic refractive errors, more detailed results are shown in Figure 1.
Sensitivity analyses: results of Mendelian randomisation are robust to potential bias
Table 2 shows the pleiotropy and heterogeneity test results for all inflammatory biomarkers. In MR-Egger, no horizontal pleiotropy was observed (Table 2). Meanwhile, no heterogeneity was found in all of our exposures except for IL-12B (PIVW = 0.039, PMR Egger = 0.035) and CD40 (PIVW = 0.038, PMR Egger = 0.034). However, the β of TWEAK in MR Egger was in the opposite direction of the β in the other methods. This means the result of TWEAK was not robust. The estimated effect sizes of the SNPs on both the exposures and refractive errors outcome are displayed in scatter plots (Figure 2).

Scatter plots for MR analyses of the causal effect of inflammatory biomarkers on refractive errors. (A) VEGF-A. (B) MCP-2. (C) CD6. (D) TWEAK. Analyses were conducted using the conventional IVW, WMM, MR-Egger and WMB, SM. The slope of each line corresponding to the estimated MR effect per method.
Results for Cochran's Q tests for heterogrneity and MR egger intercept tests for horizontal pleiotropy for the association between inflammatory biomarkers and refractive errors.
The absence of horizontal pleiotropy was confirmed in VEGF-A (PMR−PRESSO = 0.782), TWEAK (PMR−PRESSO = 0.405), CD6 (PMR−PRESSO = 0.343) and MCP-2 (PMR−PRESSO = 0.121) (Table 3). Moreover, the leave-one-out results further validated data stability. In the absence of heterogeneity and pleiotropy, we may conclude the results of IVW were reliable. Therefore, VEGF-A, MCP-2, CD6 and TWEAK were causally related to refractive errors.
Results of MR PRESSO analysis for associations between inflammatory biomarkers and refractive errors.
Discussion
In this study, we used summary statistics from GWASs to identify the causal relationships between 21 inflammatory biomarkers and myopic refractive errors. We observed some evidence for a detrimental effect of greater levels of VEGF-A, CD6, MCP-2 on the risk of myopic refractive errors. Additionally, greater levels of TWEAK was associated with lower risk of myopic refractive errors. To our knowledge, no published Mendelian randomization study had reported the causal association between inflammation and refractive errors.
Comparison with other studies
Inflammation in the etiology of myopic refractive errors has not yet been fully clarified. Previous studies have shown possible links between inflammation and myopic refractive errors. McBrien et al. reported increased scleral MMP2 activity in tree shrew eyes during myopia development. 23 Yuan et al. used undiluted aqueous humor samples from a senile cataract population and found a strong positive association between eye globe axial length and IL-6, MMP-2. 24 Wei et al. found that VEGF, MCP-1, IL-5, IL-6, IP-10, IFN-γ, eotaxin, MIP-1α, IL-4, and G-CSF were significantly higher in the high myopic patients group than control group. 25 Rada et al. reported decreased expression of TIMP-2 in the sclera of form-deprived chick eyes. 26
Therefore, both clinical and experimental results support that inflammation may contribute to myopia development. Despite the associations between inflammation and refractive errors reported by many of these previous studies, however, they have not shown causality. Also, because in clinical settings, there is often no reasonable reason to extract eye fluid from refractive errors patients for research, the sample size of the current studies on inflammation and myopic refractive errors is small, or most of them are animal models. In our study, we used mendelian randomization analyses to find that VEGF-A, MCP-2, CD6 and TWEAK were causally associated with myopic refractive errors, although the result of TWEAK need to draw with caution.
Among them, the effect of VEGF-A on myopic refractive errors was consistent with published experimental studies. VEGF has long been noted to be lower in myopic eyes.24,27–30 However, these findings have no consensus on specific mechanism about the connection between low VEGF and high myopia. VEGF is a key regulator of angiogenesis during fetal life. In the normally developing retina, VEGF is released in response to higher oxygen demand in retinal tissue, which leads to the development of blood vessels from the optic nerve to the periphery. Sawada et al. 31 suggested the low VEGF in myopic eyes is due to less VEGF production by the retina, which may be supported by the finding of Grunwald et al. that repeated intravitreal injection of anti-VEGF drugs promote geographic atrophy of the membrane retina. 32 However, Hu et al. suggested that low VEGF is caused by the larger size of the eyeball in myopic eyes and greater effect of dilution. 27
Besides, there have also been conflicting experimental results on the association between VEGF and myopic refractive errors. Wei et al. found that the vitreous VEGF levels were higher in the high myopic group than in the control group. 25 Although the sample size of this study was small (36 high myopic patients and 42 controls) and there may be confounding factors, it still needs our attention because it may imply that VEGF regulation is different in different parts of the eye. The mechanism for lower VEGF levels in myopic eyes may be more complex than the proposed diluting effect and low retina production, so further research is needed to verify the hypothesis.
While there are no studies, to our knowledge, looking at the role of MCP-2, CD6 and TWEAK on myopic refractive errors, our findings may provide new insight into possible inflammatory mechanism on myopic refractive errors. TWEAK is a cytokine of the TNF superfamily that activates the Fn14 receptor and are abundantly expressed in injured kidneys and heart. TWEAK may regulate cell proliferation, apoptosis, differentiation, fibrosis and inflammation. 33 TWEAK can also inhibit the expression of tissue protective factors such as anti-aging factor Klotho and mitochondrial biogenesis peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ coactivator-1α (PGC-1α). 34 High levels of TWEAK induce cardiac remodeling, and promote inflammation, fibroblast proliferation. Although it's not clear whether TWEAK works in the eye, these effects of TWEAK may give it a role in scleral remodeling, which may in turn leads to myopic refractive errors.
MCP-2, also known as CCL-8, is a monocyte chemotactic factor and higher levels of this cytokine suggest an early inflammatory response. It can activate many different immune cells including monocytes, T cells, natural killer cells, eosinophils, and basophils. 35 Previous studies have shown that retinal degeneration involves neuroinflammation, and the proinflammatory chemokines MCP-1 and MCP-2 were significantly increased in the eyes of patients with retinitis pigmentosa, 36 MCP-1 was significantly elevated in the vitreous of high myopia group. 25 In our study, although the P value for MCP-2 was greater than 0.05/21 = 0.002, it is also very close, at 0.009. This suggests that MCP-2 is also likely to be a potential protective factor in myopic refractive errors.
CD6 is a highly specific marker of T cells and a risk factor for multiple sclerosis. 37 CD6 possesses possibly the longest cytoplasmic tail of the known receptors of leukocytes, containing amongst other signaling motifs nine tyrosine residues. CD6 is being recognized as an important target for treatment of several autoimmune diseases. 38 The activation of the complement system, which is strongly regulated in the human body to avoid overstimulation and damage caused by inflammation, may also be involved in the pathogenesis of myopic refractive errors. The complement system is dysregulated in a variety of eye diseases, including glaucoma, autoimmune uveitis, diabetic retinopathy, and age-related macular degeneration. 39
Different from previous studies, TNF-a was not significantly associated with myopic refractive errors in our study, but the β effect values showed a same direction of action as previous studies, that is, the expression level of TNF-α was up-regulated in myopic eyes.8,40 This may be related to inducing retinal inflammation and activating the lens growth pathway. 40 More studies on the causal relationship between inflammatory biomarkers as IL6, MMP2, IFN-γ, MIP-1α, NFκB and myopic refractive errors with larger sample sizes and more powerful instrumental variables remain to be explored.
Strengths and limitations of this study
The main strength of the present study is the use of two-sample MR which has strong power for testing causal hypotheses in epidemiology, with the ability to overcome the drawbacks of traditional observational epidemiology such as reverse causation and residual confounding. Mendelian randomization uses genotype to group patients—randomly allocated at conception and so it forms a natural randomized controlled trial in which genetic variants are used as instrumental variables for an environmental exposure to make causal inferences about the impact of the exposure on the outcome. Also, our study used GWAS that contains the most types of inflammatory biomarkers known so far for analysis, making the results more comprehensive. Our study is the first known study to explore the causal relationship between ocular inflammatory biomarkers and myopic refractive errors, which may fill a gap in the relevant field.
There are a few limitations of this study. First, the exclusion criteria were not found in the original GWAS of inflammatory biomarkers, and there may be other diseases affecting myopic refractive errors. Second, although steps were taken to minimize the risk of bias from the potential use of invalid instrumental variables, such bias cannot be completely ruled out. Without knowing the function of SNPs used in mendelian randomization, it's possible that some SNPs may influence the outcome through other pathway besides exposure.21,41 Third, in order to reduce the potential energy loss in the two-sample MR, a larger LD threshold (R2 = 0.6) was used in the original paper to increase the genetic instrumental variables for each biomarker, which may raise the possibility that selected SNPs are related to other genetic variables, so that SNPs influence outcomes not just through the SNP-exposure-outcome pathway, but through the other SNP-exposure-outcome pathway, violating the third hypothesis and thus cause bias to results.
Conclusions
In conclusion, this is a study based on genes related to inflammatory factors, providing strong evidence for subsequent screening of inflammatory factors and their related genes to achieve early diagnosis of myopia. If the persistently rises of inflammation can have a protective or harmful effect on myopic refractive errors, then the early observation of specific inflammatory biomarkers can help with early prediction of myopic refractive errors and the use of drugs that inhibit inflammation may alleviate myopic refractive errors.
Footnotes
Declaration of conflicting interests
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by the Beijing Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Capital Health Research and Development of Special Fund, (grant number JQ20029, 82071000, 2024-2G-1081).
