International Political Science Review

Can money buy support in established democracies? Existing research on the political effects of cash transfers yields mixed findings, in part because most district-level analyses of ‘conditional’ cash transfer fail to distinguish between recipients and nonrecipients. This article advances a polarization hypothesis based on rational choice and motivated reasoning theories: unconditional cash transfers increase political support for incumbents only among the co-partisan recipients while leaving opposition supporters unmoved. We test this hypothesis by examining a unique ‘unconditional’ COVID-19 relief voucher lottery in Taiwan in 2021, in which vouchers were randomly assigned based on the last two digits of citizens’ national identification numbers. Combining lottery outcomes with an original individual-level survey (n = 776), we show that voucher receipts increased presidential approval only among respondents aligned with the ruling party. These findings suggest that even under conditions most favourable to programmatic redistribution, the political effects of cash transfers remain polarized.

This study explores how differing opinions on immigration relate to affective polarization via either moderation or mediation by two factors: (i) emotional attachment to people with similar opinions to oneself; and (ii) perceived threat from people with opposing views to oneself. The data for the study (n = 2,291) were collected from a representative online panel among Swedish-speaking Finns, a setting in which partisan animosity is low and the potential for issue-based polarization is higher. The key findings are that opinions on immigration relate to affective polarization on immigration, and this is mainly as either a moderation or mediation by emotional attachment and perceived threats. Pro-immigration citizens exhibit higher levels of affective polarization than those who are anti-immigration. Furthermore, we find that affective polarization among anti-immigration citizens is mainly moderated and mediated by perceived threat whereas it is mainly moderated and mediated by emotional attachment for those who are pro-immigration.

Identity politics suggests that voters favor co-ethnic candidates, but little is known about how ethnic voting operates when democratic institutions collapse. Using a survey vignette experiment in post-coup Myanmar, this study examines how candidate ethnicity and agenda framing (local vs. national) jointly shape voter evaluations under authoritarian reversal. The findings show that local agenda appeals do not increase support for co-ethnic candidates, yet the same appeals are heavily penalized when advanced by non-co-ethnic candidates. The results suggest that under authoritarian disruption, identity cues function less as sources of in-group reward, but more as credibility filters that screen out out-group candidates. Correlational analyses further show that ethnic voting is associated with perceived ethnic identity, experiences of discrimination, and interethnic distrust, rather than categorical group membership alone. These findings demonstrate that ethnic voting is attitudinally mediated and that political uncertainty reshapes identity-based heuristics while limiting the persuasive power of policy appeals.

Various perspectives have been proposed to explain regime change under authoritarianism, yet the role of autocrats— ‘the elephant in the room’— remains largely unexamined in large-N studies. This study addresses this gap by employing the Randomization Inference method that reshuffles historical leadership sequences as counterfactuals. Analyzing data from 150 countries between 1946 and 2020, we find strong evidence that autocrats contribute substantially to variance in regime change and that their influence extends in both authoritarian and democratic directions. We also find that democratic leaders play a significant role in democratic backsliding but not in democratic deepening. Our findings contribute to the agency–structure debate on regime change by providing a systematic large-N validation of the agency perspective, thus complementing prior studies that have relied primarily on fragmented case studies.

This paper addresses the widely accepted but still little elaborated observation that democratic erosion evolves in a sequential manner. We argue that the violation of academic freedom takes place after the incumbent erosion agents changed the democratic rules and secured grip on power. The analysis bases on a focused comparison of two cases of democratic erosion in the European Union – Hungary (2010–) and Poland (2015–2023) – tracing the evolution of measures curtailing academic freedom. The findings confirm that the attack against academic freedom is implemented with a time lag. Although the illiberal governments in Hungary and Poland sought from the outset to increase their influence on academia and to shape the public debate, tangible restrictions occurred only after political institutions had been reshaped in a way that would ensure their stay in power. Moreover, our longitudinal perspective reveals that, over time, measures are not only increasing in number, but also in scope and severity.

Amid debates about the strategic benefits of nominating women, we investigate perceptions of a ‘woman advantage’ among successfully nominated candidates in Finland. We propose two competing mechanisms: one suggests men perceive a ‘woman advantage’ due to the rising representation of women in politics; and the other argues women are more likely to perceive such an advantage based on direct recruitment experiences. Drawing on the 2019 Finnish Comparative Candidate Survey and register data on women’s representation within parties, we find that most candidates believe being a woman offers at least some advantage. However, women are more likely than men to perceive this advantage, supporting the second mechanism. Among women, higher levels of women’s representation on party lists are linked to a reduced sense that being a woman is advantageous. Overall, our results suggest that nominated women candidates in Finland are more sensitive to the gendered context of candidate selection than men.

Although at first glance the definition of academic freedom seems straightforward, recent episodes show how its meaning is contested, especially in a moment of intense protest. The article first singles out a theoretical framework rooted in relational approach to social movement studies, presenting eventful protests as triggers for discursive critical junctures through the development of moral shocks and moral panics, fuelling a contestation of some central concepts also within academia. After briefly introducing ongoing research on the topic, in the central empirical parts of the article, main dilemmas related to the contentious politics of academic freedom are discussed. In the conclusion, academic freedom is presented as a global commitment.

Political trust is widely considered essential for democracy, but empirical evidence testing this hypothesis remains limited. Drawing on research that connects political trust to democratic legitimacy, highlights trust’s behavioural and attitudinal consequences, and underscores its contextual character as a form of political support, we hypothesize that political trust exerts a positive effect on subsequent changes in democratic quality, but only in countries that have already reached a high level of democracy. We test this hypothesis with cross-lagged models fit to political trust estimates from 62 countries over 30 years, combined with democratic quality scores from the Varieties of Democracy project. We find little evidence of an overall effect of trust on democracy, and stronger evidence for a conditional effect: based on our results, political trust has a positive effect on democracy, but only in countries that have already achieved high quality of democracy.

Since 1990, over 100 countries have extended voting rights to citizens abroad, enfranchising roughly 200 million voters around the world. Yet little scholarship addresses the relationship between external voting and electoral manipulation. Drawing on the path-breaking ‘Menu of Manipulation’ (2002), we systematically explore how voting abroad can strategically violate democratic norms, highlighting tactics deployed by governments around the world to subvert elections through the manipulation of external voting. Our analysis generates several implications regarding relationships between diaspora voting, electoral integrity, regime type, and the role of host states. We provide testable hypotheses, preliminary analyses, and pathways for future empirical research.

Scholars of environmental politics and voting often use natural disasters as a proxy for environmental shocks. However, the simultaneously human and natural origins of these disasters muddle their connection to political outcomes. We look at an overtly human-caused disaster − earthquakes induced by gas drilling in the Netherlands − to see whether it correlates with pro-environment voting. Combining polling station-level voting data with precisely calculated measures of earthquake impact, we find that Green Party vote share is higher in affected locations, especially in provinces adjacent to but removed from the drilling due to non-linear effects of disasters on voting. These findings suggest that environmental shocks strengthen preferences for Green parties, a relationship that will become increasingly important as environmental conditions worsen.

Political interest is key to explaining democratic outcomes such as political knowledge and participation, and its development has been particularly studied in the context of socialization processes during adolescence. Building on a theory of expression effects, this study highlights the relationship between political discussion and political interest among individuals age 15 and above. Based on a seven-year panel study in Norway (n = 10,695), we estimate the effects of political discussion on interest in politics and assess whether they are contingent on age. We find that as people discuss politics more, their political interest increases over time. These effects are strongest among young adults but remain important through adulthood, only disappearing at retirement age. Our findings expand knowledge about how different political experiences may shape political attitudes and opens new avenues for the study of fluctuations and inequalities in political engagement.

Politicians often claim they will address corruption but rarely push substantive reforms. We argue they engage in “cheap talk” due to electoral incentives while avoiding reform that could weaken their position. Using Puerto Rico as a case, we analyzed legislators’ Twitter communications from 2014 to 2021, identifying 43 corruption scandals. Topic models reveal that major parties largely avoided corruption discussions unless tweets explicitly mentioned corruption keywords. Even then, discussions remained vague. In contrast, minor parties frequently engaged in reform-committed discourse. We also built a dictionary of corruption-related terms, identifying corruption tweets and modeling them against party status and sentiment. Results show that majority party members were less negative about corruption and more likely to engage in cheap talk. This suggests that major parties avoid substantive corruption discussions to maintain political power, whereas minor parties adopt a more policy-focused, reform-oriented stance.

In this paper, we examine (1) how effective Russia’s propaganda is at legitimizing its military operation in Ukraine, (2) how effectively U.S. political elites can ‘fact-check’ the conflict justifications provided by the Russian government, and (3) how exposure to false claims influences public support for various U.S. responses. Our data analysis is based on two survey experiments. Survey 1 took place on February 24, 2022 (i.e., immediately after the beginning of Russia’s invasion). Survey 2 was conducted in February 2024. In both surveys, we randomized exposure to Russian misinformation and fact-checks by U.S. elites. We found that some (but not all) forms of misinformation have the potential to reduce support for sanctions against Russia as well as military aid for Ukraine. More specifically, our data suggest that false claims that are emotionally highly evocative are particularly likely to influence foreign policy preferences.

Why do gender quotas often produce symbolic rather than substantive representation? This article argues the answer is not individual ambition but rather ‘gated pathways’ shaped by social capital’s gendered liquidity. A mixed-methods study of Palestine’s 2021 local elections reveals a ‘hollowed middle’: women meet 20% quotas in top-tier ‘A’ municipalities and village councils but are filtered out of competitive mid-tier municipalities. Channeled into ‘kinship-mediated candidacy,’ women rely on bonding capital for symbolic entry, often via acclamation. Conversely, men access ‘institutionally mediated candidacy’ through liquid bridging and linking capital convertible into substantive power. The study introduces ‘gendered liquidity’—how patriarchal structures and military occupation determine social capital’s convertibility into power. For women, bonding capital is a key to entry but a lock on advancement.

Lodge and Taber claim that likeability heuristics influence political evaluations. We shed new light on this theory by examining whether (dis)liking the governing parties correlates with democratic (dis)satisfaction. We run hierarchical linear models with data from Modules 2, 3, 4 and 5 of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. We show that individuals who like the governing parties are more satisfied with democracy, even when controlling for winner/loser status and ideological congruence. We also show that political sophistication strengthens the correlation between (dis)liking the governing parties and (dis)satisfaction with democracy. This study provides new insights into the connection between likeability heuristics and political evaluations.

Exile has traditionally been treated as a permanent removal from domestic politics. Yet many deposed leaders seek exile abroad and later re-enter politics after returning home. This study asks under what conditions exiled leaders can regain political power, focusing on their ability to return home as a crucial step in this process. It argues that the nature of power loss – coup or popular uprising – shapes the prospects for return to the home country. By anchoring the analysis in the concrete process of returning home, the study refines our understanding of how different modes of ouster influence post-tenure trajectories. Using data from 101 leaders exiled between 1970 and 2020, the study tests its theoretical expectations through quantitative analyses and case studies. The findings reveal that leaders ousted in coups are far more likely to return, highlighting the political logic linking the mode of power loss, repatriation and post-exile political re-engagement.

E-governance platforms have emerged as transformative tools for delivering essential services, including mental health care, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the accessibility, usability, and perceptions of online mental health services provided through e-governance platforms among 120 women in Deoria District, India. The demographic analysis revealed that a majority of respondents are aged 26–40 years, with diverse educational and income backgrounds, and 55% reside in rural areas, highlighting potential disparities in access due to socio-economic and infrastructural factors. Questionnaire analysis indicated that while online platforms are perceived to reduce stigma and provide comfort at home, many women still prefer in-person consultations. Key barriers identified include unequal rural–urban access, limited internet connectivity, moderate digital literacy, and insufficient government communication. Socio-economic factors, particularly income, education, and geographic location, significantly influenced engagement with online services, while platform usability emerged as a strong facilitator of adoption. These findings underscore the importance of integrating infrastructure development, digital literacy initiatives, and effective public communication to ensure equitable access. The study also highlights the broader potential of e-governance platforms to deliver essential mental health services in India, other low- and middle-income countries, and rural or underserved regions globally, emphasizing that technological solutions must be complemented by inclusive policies to address systemic inequities in health service delivery.

How do ethnic cleavages impact unarmed resistance campaigns? Recent scholarship has observed that members of ethnic minorities have achieved lower rates of success when employing nonviolent tactics than members of dominant groups. These studies have frequently proposed mechanisms, but few have tested whether dynamics in real-world cases align with these mechanisms. This paper presents a comparative case analysis of two movements in Pakistan—the Lawyers’ Movement of 2007–2009 and the ongoing Pashtun Tahafuz Movement—drawing on original interviews with activists from both movements. It offers an in-depth examination of how ethnicity impacts dynamics of mobilization, regime response, and transnational support. The findings shed new light on the unique obstacles minorities face when using nonviolent tactics as well as alternative strategies that might help overcome them.

This article examines the determinants of satisfaction with democracy in South Korea, focusing on the role of affective polarization within a broader structural and attitudinal framework. Using nationally representative data from the 2022 Korean Presidential Election Voter Attitudes Survey, the study employs hierarchical regression models across four domains: demographics, system and performance evaluations, political participation and efficacy, and ideological and affective orientations. The findings show that institutional trust and perceptions of electoral fairness are the strongest predictors of democratic satisfaction, while household-level economic evaluations also play an important role. Even after accounting for these factors, affective polarization remains negatively associated with democratic satisfaction, indicating that emotional hostility toward political opponents conditions how citizens interpret institutional performance. Robustness checks using ordinal logistic regression confirm the stability of these findings. Situating South Korea within the comparative literature, the study highlights the conditional yet consequential role of emotional polarization in consolidated democracies.

Political science is undergoing a pronounced methodological shift toward causal identification and design-based inference, increasingly marginalizing qualitative and observational approaches. We argue that this shift rests on the flawed premise that methods can be ranked in the abstract, independently of the research question and the theories at stake. Drawing on a Popperian understanding of scientific progress, we develop a framework of comparative theory testing in which method choice is derived from the competing theories themselves. When rival theories generate observationally non-equivalent implications—causal, correlational, or descriptive—any form of evidence capable of adjudicating between them has epistemic standing. This grounds methodological pluralism not in a normative appeal for inclusivity, but in the internal logic of rigorous theory testing. We illustrate the framework through canonical examples, propose criteria for evaluating the rigor of comparative theory tests, and show that design-based methods earn their place within—not above—this framework. The result is a unified perspective that preserves our capacity to engage big-picture questions while maintaining the standards of falsifiability and theoretical precision that scientific inquiry requires.